Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Week In Review [04.24.2026 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: April 24, 2026

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan and for Gary Kaye, who's out today. Today is Friday, April 24th, 26. We have a great show for you tonight. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here.
Starting point is 00:00:25 Before I go into this show, I'm going to read some notes directly from Gary. just as a quick housekeeping reminder. This is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between. If you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, listen live or archive. If I tend to go too fast or speak too fast, you can pause, rewind, fast forward,
Starting point is 00:00:46 on any device you want for free, all on GaryK.com. Also, you can subscribe to Gary's morning notes and direct in your inbox for free. Follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter, by just pressing the button. Or you may email Gary, ask about his money management services, or if you'd like his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com, you can sign up there as well. And you get updates throughout the trading day.
Starting point is 00:01:09 You get pretty much daily webcasts from Gary showing you his screen and going through charts and letting you know his thinking in real time with a lot of great content at convictionleaders.com. All right, that being said, let's talk about some to end of the week. So I'm going to do a week in review. But first, I want to make sure I get you notes. directly from Gary. So Gary says, semiconductor starts are in fuego. That means they're on fire. Intel. Sox, SMH, the ticker symbol is SMH,
Starting point is 00:01:38 this Philly semiconductor index. It's almost straight up. I mean, almost vertical. And Navidia, NVDA, now looks like it's ready to break out of a nice six-month base. Well, he said a six-month base. Let's see. The lags like AMD and Arm have reacted nicely to the Intel numbers. arm holdings.
Starting point is 00:01:59 Well, I'll get to that later, but AI again is strong, is what Gary's saying, leaving a lot of areas in the dust. The big names, big stocks, at highs now, like Amazon, straight up but reports next week. Google and meta, also. Software, little bounce, but the difference between that and the semis
Starting point is 00:02:20 is the widest Gary has ever seen. All right, those are the notes from Gary. I just want to make sure I'm the messenger, and do my job and get you the notes and right at the top of the show. And now I'll give you my thoughts on what's happening and where we are
Starting point is 00:02:32 and all that fun stuff. So a few things. Next week is end of month. So next Friday is the first. So next Thursday is the last trading day of the month. We had a, or are having an extremely outlier,
Starting point is 00:02:46 strong month. I think this is one of the strongest months ever in the market. Complete, like, it's not normal. It's an anomaly, whatever fancy, schmancy word you want to use. It's an outlawful. to the upside. Now, we are in a bull market. I think about 100 years ago, maybe 70, 80 years ago,
Starting point is 00:03:03 there was a great book called Reminiscence of a Stock Operator. And it was about a famous stock market trader. His name is Jesse Livermore. It's a great book. I'm not affiliated with it. You know, feel free to read it. If you like it, great. It's reminiscence of a stock operator as a title. And it's written by a guy named Edward Lefrieve. And I think I'm pronouncing that right. Anyway, in it, there's a bunch of great characters, some great stories. And one of the people come into the brokerage firm, because at the time, this was, again, almost 100 years ago, was before the internet and before AI and all that stuff. They went in and we'd talk on trade and talk on the phone and tick or tick or takes and all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:03:49 So one of the guys walks into the room and he's like, why is this up? And he just doesn't understand. The character's name was Old Turkey. and he goes, well, it's a bull market, you know, or it's a bull market, old turkey. And in bull market, that simple statement, it's a bull market, is one of the most powerful things I've ever read or heard anyone say about the market. Period. End the story, full stop. Why?
Starting point is 00:04:17 Because when you're in bull markets, like we are in and have been zooming out for a long time, surprises in bull markets tend to happen to the upside, not the downside. And that's not always the case. There are anomalies, things change, I get it. But for the most part, the market goes up in a bull market.
Starting point is 00:04:39 That's the whole point, right? It takes the stairs up and the elevator down is the old adage on Wall Street. What does that mean? The market goes up, goes sideways for a little bit, pulls back, and then goes up again, new highs. All right.
Starting point is 00:04:52 So where are we right now? Well, we're in new high territory. The SOX, the semiconductor index, as Gary has mentioned, is the strongest area in the market right now from my standpoint. Leadership, AI is waking up after a six-month base. If Navidia does end up having a strong breakout here, that can easily help the market shoot higher. I think Navidia, let me check. So if you, let's see here. I use marketterminal.com for just about everything.
Starting point is 00:05:29 There's a tab called Markets, and you can type in ETF holdings right under it, and you can see the holdings of any ETF that's out there. And you can see the weighting. So Navidia currently is 8.88% of the NASDAQ 100 of the QQ. That means out of all the stocks in the NASDAQ 100, Navidia has the largest weighting. Remember, these are market cap indices, right? So has a largest weighting out of all of these stocks in NASDAQ 100.
Starting point is 00:06:01 In the S&P 500, Navidia has the largest weighting there as well, and that's 7.59% of the entire index. So if Navidia breaks out and goes up, it's probably going to be bullish for those two indices. And Navidia's been going sideways for the last six months. And it's arguably one of the strongest AI stocks or the post-eastern. your child for AI stocks since ChatGPT was created and announced a few years ago. So decades ago, there was an old sadage that people would say, what's good for GE is good for the market. And then it was what was good for Apple is good for the market. Throughout history, when you study markets, you see humans, because remember, humans are creatures of habit.
Starting point is 00:06:52 Human nature doesn't really change. You walk into a crowded theater, yell fire, people are going to run. It doesn't matter their language, their height, their weight, their economic level, their intelligence, education level. It doesn't matter. Humans are humans or humans. We're creatures a habit. We do this. That's why the markets work. That's why charts work. Charts just show you human behavior on display. And people get enamored with these glamour names or these institutional sweethearts or whatever. Nifty 50 way back when was an, but again, the Glamour names du jour, right? They're the headline stocks. And 10 years ago, Apple was dominating. Now it's Navidia's turn. Decades ago, it was GE. So they said, what's good for GE is good for America, right?
Starting point is 00:07:38 Now it's Navidia. It tends to, it just, that's how markets work. They get fixated on themes, disruptive themes in the economy. 100 years ago was railroad roads. And then it was airlines. And then it was automobiles for a while. and then most recently dot-coms in the late 90s. And then you had real estate stocks, had a big move.
Starting point is 00:08:01 And again, just move in themes. Now it's AI. Tech semiconductors, last several decades has really been strong. Because if you look at the economy, what's the engine of the economy right now? It's tech, specifically AI. So it's not surprising that AI stocks are doing extremely well. Remember, the market tends to mirror. the economy. When there's a recession, market tends to go down. Sometimes it leads it. It goes down
Starting point is 00:08:28 before the recession. Sometimes it doesn't. It goes down with it. But for the most part, it's a leading indicator. Markets tend to move and the economy follows. But they're closely intertwined. Not always. Of course, there's exceptions. I'm just speaking broadly here. So if you look at the engine of the economy, all right, back in the late 90s, when I started trading, I started in the mid to late 90s, dot com was like the craze. It was, oh, wow, it's going to change the world. And it did change the world. Hundreds of years ago, before I was around,
Starting point is 00:09:03 agriculture was the predominant, dominant theme in the global economy. You wanted to get extremely wealthy. You buy land. You farm some crops and pull them out of the ground and sell them and boom. And then you had the Industrial Revolution, factories, goods and services. Goods were really big. People migrate to cities and you had huge, you know, the boom, the money,
Starting point is 00:09:23 the economy. The economic engine of the economy were factories. Great. Industrial Revolution. And then after that, you had the services. And then in the late 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, tech.com. The information age. And now we've got AI.
Starting point is 00:09:40 And the market reflects the economy. Real simple. Earnings drive prices over long periods of time. earnings go up. Markets go up. If you just look at earnings, Nothing else. Over long periods of time, they tend to merit the market and vice versa.
Starting point is 00:10:02 So during recessions, market pulls back. And during economic expansions, market rallies. Economy is expanding right now. Market rallies. Simple. Doesn't mean it's only going to go up. No, we're very extended in the short term and we're due to pull back. But there's AI stocks like semiconductors that are just doing exceptionally well.
Starting point is 00:10:25 I mentioned arm holdings earlier. If you look on a monthly chart of arm, big huge breakout. Not viable. This is not no buy, no investment advice is being given. It's all informational educational purposes only. But that's a good looking candidate. And AI is a big driver of that. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.
Starting point is 00:10:44 I'm Adam Sargan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.
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Starting point is 00:12:05 It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:12:37 I'm Adam Sarhan. And I want to thank you very much for being here. All right. So we've got the market. We've got a week in review. What happened this week? In the short term, we are very extended. Semiconductor stocks drove the market higher this week.
Starting point is 00:12:54 mentioned a few of them. Navidia's about to break out. Arm holdings broke out and there's lots and lots more. SMH is a semiconductor index. They also call it the Sox, the Philly Semiconductor index, almost just straight up, pretty much. I mean, one of the strongest runs it's had ever that I can remember, at least in the last 25, 30 years. So in the short term, we are extended. I'm expecting a pullback just based on It doesn't have to happen next week. It could happen the week after, week after. We don't know when.
Starting point is 00:13:28 No one knows the future. But just from a probability standpoint, high likelihood it pulls back. This week in review, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and now Friday, market was quiet this week. You were down a little bit, up a little bit, reversed one day. Now look at the S&P 500, the SPY. Now you're edging out, breaking out of a little bullish base on top of base. You had a two, four, five day consolidation.
Starting point is 00:13:53 You want to call that a base. You want to call it a consolidation. That's great too. Today's, uh, let's see, two, I guess it depends on how you want to count it. Three and three is six. So today would be the six day. All right. Breaking out. It's a breakout nonetheless, right? Look at the cues. Then Azdak 100. That broke out. Geez, a few weeks ago. Let's say about two, two weeks ago there ish, thereabouts. And then sat quiet for a few days, three days instead of five or six, and then broke out this week on Wednesday, went sideways on Thursday, and now big huge explosive move higher today on Friday.
Starting point is 00:14:29 Strong way to end the week. What happened this week? We had a ceasefire and then an extension. I think there were two extensions given this week. It reminds me of last year we had the tariffs and then what happened? Extension Day, whatever it was. Guess what? Market rallied.
Starting point is 00:14:47 It's all I care about. What the market does. I don't care about the news. I don't care about the politics or the small politics or anything else for that matter. I just give you my opinion. My thoughts, what I care about is the reaction to the news. What's actually happening? Not so much the why things are happening.
Starting point is 00:15:06 What is actually happening and then getting harmony with that? That's it. That's my job. That action and action alone rewards me. When I'm in harmony with the market. When I fight the market, or I'm out of balance or out of whack, I miss it. And that's no brain out, like they say. So my job is put my ego aside, get out of my head, and get a line with the market.
Starting point is 00:15:33 And not chase. It's another big thing. So this week, the two extensions, remember, the market's a forward-looking mechanism. Two extensions set the market way higher. And you can go back a few weeks ago. market was pretty much like, yeah, this war situation is not going to spiral out of control. It's pretty much going to end. And we're going to move on with life.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Let's rally. And that's what we're seeing. But oil is still high. It's in the 90s and market doesn't care. Gasoline prices are still high. Gasoline futures are still high. Market doesn't care. Earnings.
Starting point is 00:16:10 We had a lot of companies report earnings this week. I think about 15% of the S&P 500 reported earnings. this week. Some of them fell. Some of them went up. We can go through some of them now. So the big one that reported earnings earlier this week was Tesla. T-S-L-A. Tesla had earnings. It fell after reporting earnings. Now you can give any reason why it fell, you know, the earnings, the revenue, the this, and that, the other thing. It fell. That's the important thing for me as far as I'm concerned. Why? Because that's important. it's the reaction to the news.
Starting point is 00:16:49 Well, what if the earnings beat estimates or their revenue beat estimates to any specific stock to me? What did the stock do after earnings? And then did it stay down or did it shoot right back up again? A few weeks ago, Goldman Sachs, ticker symbol there is GS, one of the biggest investment banks reported earnings. And it started trading with it. It was on 13th.
Starting point is 00:17:08 It fell and then it hit the 50, bounced, rallied. Two days later, recovered, went above where it was before earnings, and now you're way above where it was before earnings, even though you fell the day that it reported earnings. That's okay. It could be a knee-jerk reaction. We see that a lot. This week, some of the stocks that report earnings, Cleveland Cliffs, ticker symbol, CLH, Alaska Air, ALK, Steel Dynamics, STLD, S-T-L-D, we had GE, GE-E-E-E-E-R-Space, D-R-Horton,
Starting point is 00:17:38 D-H-I, R-T-E-E-R-T-E-E-E, R-T-E-E-E-E-N-E, G-E, E-E, E-E-E, G-E, N-E-E-E, G-E-E-E, North of Grumman, NLC, United Health Report earnings, 3M, United Health is UNH, 3M is MMM, Interactive Brokers, IBKR, United Airlines, UAL. That was on Tuesday. Wednesday, we had Tesla, GE, Vernaro, which is the, Vanova, which is the nuclear spinoff of GE, GEV is a ticker there. Boeing, BA, AT&T, ticker symbols T, CME group, ticker symbol, CME, Texas Instruments TXN, IBM, reports.
Starting point is 00:18:15 reported Southwest Airlines, LUV, Service Now, Lamb Research reported LRCX, Las Vegas Sands, LVS on Wednesday, Thursday with Lockheed Martin, LMT, Freeport Macriman, FCX, C, American Airlines, AAL, Blackstone, BX, American Express, AXP, Intel, I NTC, and Baker Hughes, BKR. All reported on Thursday. Baker Hughes, I think, is up nicely today also on, was it Baker Hughes? Yeah, that broke out today on volume after reporting earnings. Good action there. OIH, which is an oil and gas ETF, broke out yesterday and is higher today.
Starting point is 00:18:59 Even though the XLE is down below the 50. And the XOP, these are two other oil and gas related ETFs, did not break out. But the OIH, that broke out, oil services. Interesting because oil didn't break out yet. Okay, something I'm watching. But all those stocks that reported earnings, we've got, by the way, a lot more next week and a lot more the week after.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Big names too reporting like Apple and Amazon and meta. I mean, I think another 15% of the S&10 to 15% next week, the week after a similar situation. So we just have a lot of earnings. But again, filter out the noise. focus on two things. How does the stock react to earnings? Number one, short term, like the day of the next day,
Starting point is 00:19:50 like if it reports after the close, the first trading day after it reports earnings, let's put it that way. And then what happens right after, a few weeks a day after, two days after, three days after, if it goes down like Goldman Sachs did, but then quickly rebounds
Starting point is 00:20:03 and gets above where it was before earnings, then guess what? It's not necessarily a bad reaction anymore. It was initially, but no longer. Same thing if it goes up, and then it rolls over. So I keep these lists fluid where it's like, okay, it's up the initial reaction and then what happens a few days or a week or so afterwards.
Starting point is 00:20:21 That's one thing I look at. The other thing is the market. Remember, all the major indices are, S&P, it's 500 stocks. The NASDAQ 100, about 100 stocks. I think Google's in there twice or something like that, but let's just say it's 100 stocks. The Russell 2000, 2,000 stocks, so on and so forth. It's a basket of stocks. The stocks are going up.
Starting point is 00:20:41 Great. basket's going down. Also, great, we want to know. So that's what I look for for earnings, is the reaction to the news from the market and from the stocks. Up next, we've got a lot more in cover. I'm Adam Sarhan.
Starting point is 00:20:55 This is the one and only Investor's Edge. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.
Starting point is 00:21:23 It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you're talking. tool. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. There you go. I'm Adam. Sarhanas always want to thank you very much for being here. All right. So we covered a lot so far the reaction to the news. We covered earnings season, which we're in now. We're going to look for during earnings. We want to see what the stock does, how the market reacts, so on and so forth. And then some of the things we want to pay attention to is levels of extension. How far extended is the market? How far extended is the stock? Did it have a huge move up like the semiconductors?
Starting point is 00:22:03 Then if it did, am I going to step in and buy it now after a big move up? I want to, but I'm not going to. It's too extended. So again, being able, that's where these, the emotions versus logic comes in, right, which is the next thing I want to speak about as I zoom out and give you, I don't talk every day like Gary does. So when I'm on, I like to zoom out and give you high level actionable, you know, timeless lessons that you can apply pretty much anywhere. So, One of the biggest things that changed my life with markets, even outside of market, just changed my life was when I understood that inside all of us, we have an emotional side and we have a logical side, rational, emotional, whatever word you want to use.
Starting point is 00:22:41 And they pretty much determine our decisions and they battle back and forth. The market, it's easy to see it because people are emotionally attached to their money. I like making money. I don't like losing money. Notice my language. The word is like. that's an emotion and I don't know about you
Starting point is 00:22:59 but if you've ever seen somebody really get charged up emotionally are they making sound decisions or someone who's calm cool collected if you had to put money on two people once calm cool collected making a decision and the other one is yelling and screaming and jumping up and down and going crazy
Starting point is 00:23:14 and just emotions have taken over logic is out the window most of those cases I saw a couple fighting at the mall the other day just fighting the lady was screaming at her husband. I don't know what the reason was. It doesn't matter. She's in a public place and outside of Barnes & Noble.
Starting point is 00:23:31 And boom, just going nuts. She's not in good state. The emotions, it doesn't have to be that exaggerated. I just share the exaggeration just to illustrate the point. But when the emotions come in, the emotions tend to impact decisions. And most of the time, humans, make emotional decisions and they justify it with logic that fits their predetermined emotional decision.
Starting point is 00:24:00 If I like this, I'm going to find logic to justify that action. I don't like that. I'm going to find reasons or logic that supports my emotional decision. That's just the way most humans work. And if you don't believe me, look around. People, if you, I was just talking to my sister about weight and a diet or whatever she was trying to do. and she's in decent shape. And she said, we were talking and she's telling me all these things about the type of diet she's looking at and so on and so forth. I'm just thinking, I'm like, it's very simple.
Starting point is 00:24:36 It's calories in versus calories out. Calories in versus calories out. And by the way, I'm going to pause for a second. If you hear some binging noise, I don't know what that is. It might be some technical difficulty, but I can hear it. So I hope it stops. but I just wanted to share with everybody. I do hear it, so hopefully it stops.
Starting point is 00:25:01 So calories in versus calories out, that's all that any diet really matters. What does that mean? So if you take, if you want to lose weight, logically, it makes sense. Emotionally, it's very difficult. That's why most people are overweight. Same all I was at yesterday.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Walk around and just look around. So I mean by look around. But it's not just a logic. the human brain, it's not just a logical robotic type 1 plus 1 equals 2. I'm going to go do that. Exercise more. That means more calories are being burned. Eat less.
Starting point is 00:25:42 Less calories are coming in. Anybody can lose weight with that formula. Just about anybody that's healthy can lose weight with that formula. Logically, it makes simple sense. By the way, money is the same thing. Cash flow in versus cash flow. People tell me all the time, Adam, I've got to make more money. Sure, go ahead.
Starting point is 00:25:56 Somebody makes $10 million. They spend $11. What happens? They're minus one. and I see that happen a lot. The spending money out is just out of control, out of control for most humans. Why? Because it feels good, knows my language, the emotion feels good to spend.
Starting point is 00:26:17 It feels good to eat. So that side of the equation usually gets skewed. Same thing with markets, by the way. Same thing with success in just about any endeavor. You look at Kobe, Brian, or Michael Jordan, or any of these great athletes, Roger Federer, you know, Djokovic, any of these guys in any sport and any endeavor. They outwork. I just watched a video from Larry Bird decades ago in the 80s talking about how he outworks his competition. Magic Johnson at the time and Michael Jordan and Pip and all these other guys outwork their peers.
Starting point is 00:26:56 It takes talent, yes. Also takes dedication. It takes hard work. And then especially on the days when you don't want to do it. And the other thing it takes is consistency. Same thing with markets. There's not a day that goes by. I have a newsletter.
Starting point is 00:27:14 It's called findleadingstocks.com where I share my thoughts with the market with everybody. I do two reports a day, right in the pre-market before the open. And then right after the open, about 20 minutes after a half hour by 10 a.m. Eastern, I give a breakout support, setups, and I share what I see happening. and not a day goes by where I miss it. And I've been writing about the market every single day for over 20 years. I think I started in 2004 doing it daily before that I was doing it weekly because I understood, hey, I need a way of gathering my thoughts. Actually, it was from reminiscence of a stock opera and another great book, legendary book that was written,
Starting point is 00:27:58 How I Made $2 million in the Stock Market by Nicholas Darvis. This guy was a ballroom dancer back in the 60s, 70s, or whenever it was, before the internet. And he couldn't look at charts in real time. So his broker would teleks him or send him in the mail, whatever it was he was doing to send him the charts. He'd give him the orders and then send it back. And then he'd walk away, dance and do whatever he's got to do. He made $2 million back in the 70s when $2 million was really just unbelievably tremendous amount of money. It still is, but it was even more.
Starting point is 00:28:26 Today's dollar is probably like 15 or 20 or some crazy thing like that. The point is he made a tremendous amount of money doing that. He went back to New York, who was involved with the brokers. He got caught up with his emotions. He lost a lot of money. Then he went to Paris and just cleared his head, got back to his routine, and it worked. Once I understood that, I was like, wow, made perfect sense. Got to get out of your head, right?
Starting point is 00:28:44 Just get your thoughts on paper. I'd do that every single day for 22 years now or whatever it is. Even on my honeymoon, I would do it. I'd never missed a report. Every week, the stuff goes out when it was weekly, and now it's every day. just don't miss it. And the people that are around me on my team, they work for me, they're younger guys in their 20s or whatever it is, 30s.
Starting point is 00:29:04 Like, Adam, you want to break? Like, yeah, this is my break. I enjoy it. I love it. What else am I going to do? Walk around the mall and watch people scream at each other, which I could do and I do anyway, but that's beside the point, right? It's a labor of love.
Starting point is 00:29:21 It's that discipline. The other thing that somebody gave me a really, really great line, it's the greats in just about any endeavor, folks. relentless consistency. Gary every day on the radio, every day writing his reports, not once, not twice, three, four, five, six times a day sometimes, depending on the action. I've known Gary now, geez, over, probably about 30 years. There's not been one day, A, where I haven't been able to reach him if I need to.
Starting point is 00:29:54 I've worked with him probably the last 10 or 15 or thereabouts. And B, where he's just like, yeah, I'm checked. out, I'm gone. Even when he's overseas. I'm like, he's on vacation. I'm like, here, I'll cover it the whole week. He's like, no, I got it. I said, okay, go for it. I'm trying to help you, have a good time. He's on it. Relentless consistency, folks, especially on those days where you don't want to, quote, unquote, do the workout or you don't want to look at the market or you don't want to, that's show up, just show up. That's half the game.
Starting point is 00:30:25 G.I.G.O. used to say, no, it means half the battle, right? So it's like, okay, great. show up. Some exercise coach was talking about different workouts and lifting weights and what specific exercise should you do. They said the most important thing, you show up an exercise on a schedule and be consistent. What specifically you do, you do weights, you do arms one day or chest one day. You're going to get the results if you show up and do it. Just create that habit.
Starting point is 00:30:50 So for me, I've organized everything and say, okay, great. I put on MarketTerminal.com and automated all of it. Thank you to technology. Save me countless hours scanning the market and missing. thing. You know, Wall Street's big Wall Street firms use terminals to win. I'm like, okay, well, now we can too. So any type of structure is better than no structure in most cases. I used to wing it. You asked me in high school, hey, you can study for your test to get ahead, but plan. No, I just wing it. College, same thing. Now, plan. Benjamin Franklin, great line.
Starting point is 00:31:32 Failure to prepare is preparing the fail. I'll say it again. Failing to prepare. In other words, if you don't prepare, you're preparing to fail. So incredibly powerful. I want to prepare to win. I want to get ahead and keep showing up. Up next, you've got a lot more to cover.
Starting point is 00:31:56 I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, red. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. With Gary Culper.
Starting point is 00:32:38 And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7 on pretty much any device that has Internet. All right. So in the last few minutes here, before we wrap up, we've got some looking ahead, right? the market's always a forward-looking mechanism. I want to look ahead too. Next week, we've got a lot of earnings coming out.
Starting point is 00:33:06 We've got some economic data. It's Friday is the beginning of May, which is I can't believe this year's flying by, but it is. Lots of companies report earnings next week, some big ones, Coke and Visa and Google and Amazon and Microsoft and meta and so on and so forth. And a lot more. I mean, I think 10 or 15% of the S&P somewhere in that range reports earnings next week. A lot of economic news coming out as well.
Starting point is 00:33:31 For me, when I zoom out, we've had such a huge move in the month of April. I mean, these are outlier moves to the upside. In this short term, pretty extended. Yes, we can continue to rally, but we're pretty extended. AI, semiconductors, definitely leading areas. Software stocks, not so much as whole AI with Claude is going to disrupt software. Okay, I get it. The SaaS models pretty much out the window for many places.
Starting point is 00:34:00 That's what the thought is, at least. whether it happens or not, yet to be determined. But we'll see. For now, I always like, again, have structure. I like to understand that there's an internal battle, if you will, unconsciously between the emotional side of my brain or most humans' brains and the logical side. Actually, if you want to go deeper into that, I wrote a book. It's called Psychological Analysis.
Starting point is 00:34:28 It was number one on Amazon every day for three months. You can get on Amazon or Barnes & Noble wherever you want. And the idea is, in my opinion, fundamental and technical analysis and not enough to beat the market. If they were, everybody would own a few islands in the Caribbean and be rich and that's it. It's something missing. What is it? It's that exact thing, the emotional side, what you do with the information. How do you bring out your superhero?
Starting point is 00:34:51 So I've got cartoons. I think it's the only investment book that I know of with cartoons in it where there's this smart money superhero inside all of us. He's the guy who looks like Superman dressed up. and the logical side of us. And then there's like a dumb money beast that runs around like a Tasmanian devil, makes emotional decisions. Those are the two cartoon characters. And you could just see different scenes as I go through, talk about cognitive biases and talk about mental walls. You ever do something and hit a wall?
Starting point is 00:35:15 I know I have many times. Many people do, especially in performance-based businesses. How do you overcome them? Be aware of them. Address them. Create Ray Dalio talks about this in his book, Principles. Create guard rails to protect yourself from yourself. of a thing, right, from the emotional side of you. Or not to say the emotions are bad. That's not
Starting point is 00:35:35 what I'm saying. All I'm just saying, it clouds the judgment. And lots of times people end up making emotional decisions. They chase the market after a big move up because it feels good to buy. It doesn't feel good to buy when markets down. That's usually the opposite. Buffett has a great line. He goes, you want to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Notice the language, right? Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. what that means in plain English. You buy something, let's say you buy a stock at 100. And it goes to 101.
Starting point is 00:36:04 So you made a dollar. Most people in that case, or you buy something at $10, it goes to $11, right? It goes up a dollar. But you're up 10%. Because $1 on $10 is 10%. I got to sell it because I'm fearful. The stock's going to go down. I'm going to lose my profits.
Starting point is 00:36:20 He's saying that's exact time to be greedy. Hold on to it. Let the winners run. Don't be fearful. The opposite is true also. You buy it at 10. It goes to 9. What happens?
Starting point is 00:36:28 Oh, my God. I hope it gets back. the even you're praying up and down left and right and you know i've done all this stuff and i hope it comes back please god i'll just bring it back to even i'll get out bring it back to him i'll get out instead there's you being greedy you i want to come back up again that's when you should be fearful it's to go down the five or zero whatever right you keep going down so that's that idea of fearful ingredient ingredient is flip it to emotions ask yourself this is a great question what am i avoiding in life and do it if it's healthy for you
Starting point is 00:36:59 you and it's a good thing for you to do. For me, it's a sit-ups. What am I avoiding? Sit-ups. Well, okay, Adam, go do them. Well, I don't want to do them. Do them. I don't want to do it. Follow? That's for me. Other people, they're avoiding doing the work, whatever that work is. On their relationship, on the market, whatever. Just, again, helping you think at a different level is kind of the idea here because when you look at the market at a different level, you now have clarity. point of the reason why the book was number one was because it teaches people how to make rational not emotional decisions with their money once I got that I can see things so clearly and I see it my kids oh I don't want to do the work today well guess what do it
Starting point is 00:37:48 then then okay would they get work done better if they break it up into small pieces over the course of a week or wait until last minute and then cramp oh we all know the answer break it up and do small pieces. You can do the work anyway. Why cram? I was teaching my younger one how to ride a bike and he had a with his grandpa three years ago fell off the bike, was really young. And that was a traumatic experience for him, scratch his knee or something like that. He didn't want to get back on the bike. But he wants to ride his bike because his friends ride the bike. Okay, great. Let's go ride the bike. For three years. Let's go ride the bike. No, let's go ride the bike. No. What's he doing? He's avoiding it. What am I doing? Avoiding the setups. Finally, take him small pieces.
Starting point is 00:38:31 you know, once a month or once every two months. When he's ready, I'll hold you. You're not going to fall again. You're with me. I got you. I got you. I got you. You know their language.
Starting point is 00:38:38 Okay. And he gets on the bike. But he wanted to, for three years. No, no, no, no. I was patient, calm, patient, calm. Patient, patient, patient. Finally, after small times, he was just last week. He got on the bike and he ran.
Starting point is 00:38:51 He did it. And we were so happy. It was a huge day for him. He overcame the quote-unquote trauma. He stopped avoiding it. You can't learn how to ride a bike if you keep avoiding it. Yes, it's painful. I understand. Humans are also pain and we're very driven to avoid pain and seek pleasure. I get it. It feels good to eat the cookie. It doesn't feel good to do the setup for me. So what am I going to do? I'm going to eat the cookie. That's just been my MO for 30 years, right? Okay, I'm 40, I guess even longer. I'm just trying to think of when I was, anyway, for decades. Let's leave it at that. So the same thing here with all humans. What am I, what are you avoiding? Ride the bike. Just get up and ride the bike. I don't want to ride the bike. Get up and ride the bike. good, what's the right thing for you to be doing?
Starting point is 00:39:33 And then just do it. Again, once I understood that, and just break it down the small pieces. I'm not going to do a thousand setups. Fine, just do 10. Just create the habit. I can't look at 10,000 stocks. Okay, just look at the leading stocks. Look at the 10 breakouts.
Starting point is 00:39:50 Look at 20 breakouts. Just go to Market Term.com. Click. Look at breakouts. Boom. First few ones show up right there. You don't have to do anything. It takes two seconds.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Click. Boom, boom. Takes a minute. Two minutes. Pops, hit spacebar a dozen times or two dozen times, depending on the number of breakouts. And you're done if that's what you're looking for, whatever it is. But again, hopefully you're able to think at a higher level.
Starting point is 00:40:14 That being said, I hope this has been helpful for you. It's a pleasure being here as always. Thank you very much for being here. Enjoy the weekend. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's GaryKey.com.

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