Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Week In Review [05.08.2026 w Adam Sarhan]
Episode Date: May 8, 2026https://garykaltbaum.com/The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or Bi...zTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today.
Today is Friday, May 8th, 2026, and we have a great show for you tonight.
As always, I want to thank you very much for being here.
Some housekeeping before we dive in.
As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between.
If you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen live or archive at your convenience on any device, all for free on GaryK.com. You can also subscribe to get Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You can email Gary about his money management services. Or if you like his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com, you can sign up to that as well. That's convictionleaders.com. Every day Gary shares with members what he sees in real time.
several times a day and also gives daily webcasts where he shows charts.
And actually, instead of just listening to him on the radio, you can actually see what he sees.
And then he goes through it.
So all of that's available on convictionleaders.com.
All right, those are some of the housekeeping points.
Now I'm going to read you notes from Gary.
Make sure I do my job as the messenger and get that out.
So Gary says, this is becoming more and more like 1999 with the semiconductors' artificial intelligence,
as they continue to go pretty much vertical.
It's not every name, but the ones that are on the move have moved insane.
Any announcement bigger or small is a rocket ship.
Intel announces chips for Apple that was well known, and guess what Intel does.
That lifted ASML as well, another semiconductor, and a few others.
Gary's screens were a ton of red today, ignored by those areas.
When Gary says stretched, extended.
and overbought, that is nothing compared to what we are seeing in a few names.
And one more final note, the NASDAQ, as Gary was typing this, was up 375, the NASDAQ 100,
up 585, and advanced decline lines are barely positive.
So that's it for Gary's notes.
The rest is going to be me.
So from my standpoint, this is turning into an environment where it's very similar to
the late 90s. And just to give those listeners that weren't around back then, just some context,
I guess is a good word. What happened was a massive boom in productivity back in the 90s with
the dot com. What's going to happen to our economy with the internet? Is it going to get bigger or
smaller? Productivity going to go up or down. All of that caused and created massive, massive,
massive explosive gains, not just in the market, but in the economy as well.
And that was reflected in the market.
Remember, the market's a mirror of the economy, more or less.
It's just, again, in a simple way of explaining the way that I view things.
But as the economy grows, earnings grow, and then markets go up.
And the premium, you know, the price to earnings ratio goes up.
And the multiple people pay for earnings go up, so on and so forth.
So what's happening now is we have a situation where it could be another one of those massive, massive productivity booms unfolding with AI.
People are more productive with AI, not less productive.
The economy most likely is going to continue to grow and grow faster because of AI,
which in turn could create stock prices to go higher.
The multiple expands, and here we go, possibly with that parabolic crazy rally like we saw in 1999.
In dot-com stocks back then.
Now it's in AI and semiconductor stocks.
So very similar, they say history rhymes, repeats rhymes, you know the whole thing, very similar
behavior.
Remember, markets are driven by emotions, same with humans.
We think we're rational and logical creatures, but you look at our actions, a lot of them
are driven by emotions.
Pain and pleasure.
Avoid pain, that's how we're wired, and seek pleasure.
Again, how we're wired.
Really powerful when you zoom out and you step back and you just look at it, not as Adam,
me as a user, just as all humans and how humans behave and interact and so on and so forth.
Then all of a sudden you get clarity.
And you can look at yourself almost from like a third point of view or higher level, third dimension, whatever it wants, 30,000 view.
Any way you want from another perspective.
And then all of a sudden things begin to unfold in somewhat of a not what's a good word here, not predictable, but somewhat of a not sort of.
surprising way. When you look at how humans behave, how things unfold, look at their actions,
our actions as humans, and look at the decisions. So it's Friday, before I go any further.
Could we keep going up? Sure. But in the short term, just to finish this point on being extended,
again, it's all about probabilities and what could happen next, what might happen next.
the levels of extension, how extended we are above the 50-day moving average, above the 200-day moving average in the major indices are some of the biggest extensions we've seen in years, if not decades.
Typically when the NASDAQ is, I don't know, 11, 12% above the 50-day moving average, that's an extended market and it pulls back into the 50.
Very extended market.
Right now, last I checked, let me check right now.
The NASDAQ 100 is about 14, 15% above the 50-day moving average, the QQQ,
and it's about 17% above the 200-day moving average.
Again, 10, 11, 12% is considered very stretched.
We're above that.
And by a lot.
If you look at the semiconductor index, the SMH, and I'll give you some numbers and we'll do a week in review,
and we've got a lot of time.
We've got a lot of cover here.
So look at the semiconductors, the SMH.
That's currently 30% above its 50-day moving average and 53% above its 200-day moving average.
The end of March, just a few weeks ago, it was below the 50-day and very close to the 200-day.
Same with the NASDAQ 100.
It was below the 50-day.
And in fact, the NASDAQ 100 back in late March was below the 200-day moving average.
And it was down on the year.
I'm going to go over to Market Terminal, which is...
A tool that I built that helps me look at markets and make sense of the world.
There's a lot of stuff here, but I'm going to get some percent changes for us.
Last I checked, and again, you've got approximately 15 and a half, almost 16 percent gain in the NASDAQ 100 this year.
I'll round up to 16.
In the end of March, four or five, six weeks ago, we were down on the year.
Now we're up about 16%.
Out of all the major indices, that's the strongest one out there.
In second place is the Russell 2000, the small caps, that's up about 14% year to date, just from January until today.
Midcaps, MDY, are in third place, up about 10%, 10.3% year to date.
And then you have the S&P 500 up about 8% year to date or 7.9%.
And then in last place, out of the major indices, you have a Dow up 2.5% for the year.
So again, NASDAQ 100, first place, it's up about 16% for the year.
Ready for this?
The semiconductor index, folks, the SMH, it's up a whopping 51.5% for the year.
NASDAQ 100, vast majority of the gains, it's again, that narrow leadership that Gary talks about,
NASDAQ 100 is up about 15.6, let's say 16% for the year.
the SMH, which is the semiconductor index up about 51% for the year.
That's what Gary means by narrow and focused.
By the way, you want to look at financial, the XLF, which are the big banks and big financial stocks.
That's down for the year, down 6.7%.
If you want to look at the transportation stocks, that's up about 7% for the year.
You want to look at healthcare stocks, the XLV, is down 7.5%, 7.6% for the
year. Transportation is IYT and the healthcare stocks is XLV. So again, outside of the areas that are
working, big cap tech and semiconductors, you have modest games across the board. If you look at the
discretionary stocks or here, you can look at consumer staples, the XLP. That's up 8% for the
year. The NASDAX double that. The semiconductors are up 50 for the year, 50% for the year, 50%
the year. So again, where you go in the market, look at discretionary stocks, X, L-Y.
That's up 1.5% for the year, barely moving. So again, where you are invested in the market
is really important. That's why we like to look at leadership, but I like to look at leaders,
follow the leaders, follow the leaders, follow the leaders. Very, very powerful.
And also, it helps us, I always like to say the market is speaking and then ask, are we listening.
It helps us listen to the market objectively.
Why?
Because we're not guessing.
It's not opinions.
It's just facts.
Semiconductors up 50% for the year.
Big Banks, XLF, down 7% for the year.
That's a fact.
You can argue all you want with your opinion.
You might not think that's quote unquote right or wrong.
Same thing happened in 90s.
The dot-coms were on fire.
And lots of other areas were left for debt until it became a bubble.
and then the bubble burst, 2000 and 2002, was a brutal bare market.
The NASDAQ, which was leading so much, fell about 80% with the NASDAQ 100, just huge declines.
And took years and years and years to recover.
Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.
I'm Adam Sargan, and this is the one-only Investor's Edge.
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All right.
So we spoke about the 1999 comparison, spoke about leadership, spoke about how narrow it is.
with the dot-coms are just on fire.
Excuse me, back in the 90s, the late 90s.
Dot coms were on fire.
Then there was a bust afterwards.
And then now it's the semiconductors and AI stocks.
Will there be a bust afterwards?
We'll see how this unfolds.
We'll see the mania.
Back then in the 90s, Greenspan was the former head of the Fed.
And he said, oh, yeah, there's irrational exuberance,
which became a famous catchphrase, saying,
oh, yeah, markets are just going straight up.
It's irrational.
Okay, we'll see if that happened.
again now. It kind of sort of is getting there, but we're not quite there 100% just yet.
So a few other things I want to share with you and then, well, a lot more, but let's keep moving
forward. So that's what we left off. The week ahead. So this is now Friday, we can review.
Well, all right, every Monday, I like to go look at the week ahead and say what's coming up this
week. What's expected to happen? We had a few Federal Reserve speakers this week. We had lots
of earnings. So this is now it's Friday. It's going to be the week in review. And that's going to be
the title for today also, we can review. But here we go. We had a lot of earnings coming out this
week. Net net, when everything's done, the market's up and up a lot. So you look at each individual
stock. You can see if the stock gaps up. All things being equal, that's a good sign. Stock
gaps down on earnings. All things being equal, that's not a good sign. But for now, the market's
up. And then I look at the market, not just the stock. So, okay, we have.
have a lot of earnings come out this week. Net net. Imagine I was in Mars during this week and I just
come back to Earth. What happened in the market? It's Friday. Hey, we're up and we're up a lot.
So that tells me the aggregate of all the economic news and earnings news. And by the way,
we had a jobs report today, which I'll get to as well. News, all of that buyers showed up,
overpowered sellers, markets up. Really simple. It's like my kids say it's not that deep. That's it. That's simple.
where are we right now?
Jobs report came in Goldilocks number, not too hot, not too cold.
The estimate was 55,000.
Jobs created 115,000 seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment rate was at 4.3%.
And that shows us that, guess what, the fear that high oil prices are going to cause a recession
and things are going to get really ugly and so on and so forth, not their job.
just yet. Why? Because we pretty much doubled the estimate. Jobs are still being created. And
the Fed has a dual mandate. In other words, there's two jobs for the Fed. Number one, keep unemployment
low. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, which is low, by the way. It's almost full employment.
It's very strong. I mean, unemployment at 4.3% is just a very strong number. So unemployment is low.
check that box for the Fed.
And the second mandate for the Fed is inflation near 2%.
Well, we know that number is above 2%,
and it's been above 2% for a while.
Why?
Because back in COVID, the Fed came out and just went,
helicopter money or bazookas or easy money to the nth degree,
and that caused inflation.
Okay.
We're now dealing with it for years.
And as we see, inflation is quote-unquote sticky,
meaning it doesn't just go away overnight.
It's been years, and inflation is still high and above 2%.
So from the investing standpoint, what we care about, what's the Fed going to do next?
All this economic data tells us what happened in the past, earnings, what happened in the past,
the market's a forward-looking mechanism.
It tells us what's coming up next.
And what that means is, okay, the Fed doesn't have to worry about unemployment right now.
It's focused on inflation.
And what's coming up next?
next week, the week after, you know, right after the jobs report, we get inflation. CPI, consumer
price index, PPI comes out, producer price index, so on and so forth, and a lot more economic
data over the next few weeks until the whole story starts all over again next month with the next
jobs report. But for now, the market rallied sharply on the jobs report. Why? Because it's really
a non-event. It's not scary. It's not, oh, the Fed's got a change path or can't cut rates, has to
raise rates. If the jobs report came out and jobs, you know, 500,000 new jobs are created and the feds
worried about inflation, right? So, okay, then I have to cut, they have to raise rates. Forget about cutting
rates. It's raise rates to deal with that to slow things down a little bit, but that's just not the
case. So again, putting things in perspective and understanding what the news means, like is one thing,
what's the news? Okay, sure. But really what we focus on more important.
is how does the market react to the news?
And that's really, really important.
Why?
Because the reaction is what shows up in our statement.
And that's what determines whether we make money or lose money.
It's the statement, the price.
Nothing else shows up on the statement.
Jobs report doesn't show up on my statement.
It doesn't show up on your statement.
There's a nacho trade now, which is no way the Hermuda Strait opens.
Nacho.
They like coming up with things on Wall Street.
people are creative and catchy headlines.
There's a new trade saying, oh, yeah, it's not going to, you know, prolonged oil shock and all that stuff.
All right.
Whether it happens or not, nobody knows.
It's a catchy headline, sure.
But what I know, levels of extension, looking at history and saying, okay, the market is extremely extended up here.
Most likely it's going to pull back.
When?
No idea.
Just like nobody knows about the nacho.
will Hormuz open over the weekend?
Will it open in six months, open in a year, open tomorrow?
Who knows?
What I'm focused on is the market reaction.
If I would have told you, you know, at the beginning of the year,
there's going to be a war in the Middle East and basically shut it down,
the Hermuz, the straight of Hermuz, which is a lot of oil goes through it.
Oils are going to go from 60 to 100, and then stocks are going to basically go parabolic and straight up.
I probably thought I would be from a different planet.
There's no way that's going to happen, Adam.
Guess what it happened.
So again, understanding how things unfold and looking at historical patterns for precedent,
just like in law.
You go to law school or you're in a lawyer, you know, in court, you want to find historical precedent.
Here you go.
Here's precedent.
This has happened before.
Okay.
Doesn't mean it has to happen again, but at least it helps us stack the odds of success in our favor.
And just because the market pulls back doesn't mean it's over.
back in 1999, you can go back and look at the charts if you want and change a date and have fun.
I do this stuff. I study 87s crash. I studied, you know, decades and decades of market history going back to the early 1900s.
And you see these patterns all throughout history showing up time and time again, time and time again, time and time again, time and time again.
Why? Because humans are creatures of habit, number one, but number two, human nature never changes.
walk into a crowded theater, yell fire.
You get the same reaction any time in history.
100 years ago, now, tomorrow, next week, next year.
Again, humans are humans or humans.
The news changes, the bull market changes,
but human reaction doesn't.
Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.
I'm Adam Sarin.
This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
We're listening to.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Adam Sarhan.
In for Gary Kay, who's out today.
All right.
So, by the way, if you miss any part of the show,
you can go to GaryK.com,
rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7 on any device you want.
So a few things to keep in mind as we move forward.
First, you spoke about the week that was, the week in review, had a very strong week in the market.
It's leading by a massive, massive margin.
A semiconductor index up 54% what I say it was.
Over 50% year to date.
Yeah, 51% almost 52% year to date.
The NASDAQ 100 is up 16% year to date.
The Dow is up 2% year-to-date, two and a half.
The S&P 500 is up about 8% year-to-date.
It's a big, big, big difference.
So the areas that are working, narrow, AI-related tech,
very similar in 1999 with dot-coms.
It was just a very narrow group that would work,
and it lifted the entire market higher.
And lots of these names back in the dot-com boom are booming again now.
Intel went from 54 to 124 in the last, what, three or four weeks?
Micron, MU, went from 471 to 746, and it was up about $100 today alone.
Navidia, which was the poster child for AI, hasn't really gone up that much.
In fact, it's up about 13%, almost 14% year to date.
Still a very good return.
Micron at the same token is up 137% year-to-date.
Sandisk, S-N-D-K, one of the leading stocks in the market right now, was up another, geez, another 200 bucks today, was that?
Is that right?
Yeah, it was just a huge move today.
Well, another 15%.
So the year-to-day, it's up 467%.
That is ginormous.
at the beginning of the year
sand disk
let's see here
which I do not own
by the way
that's life
and I'll get to that in a second year
it closed last year
at what was that price
237 it's at 1554
today
my goodness
and this takes me
my next point
capital
comes in
two primary forms
well there's
let's just keep it
simple. There's physical capital, which is money in the bank, and then there's mental capital,
which is your emotional capital, however you want to word it. So there's physical capital and
there's mental capital. The physical capital matters. Sure, it's the money. That's how we keep
track and keep score. But the mental capital matters more. Why? Because ultimately in this
business, especially for individual investors, we're in our heads.
And a stock like sand disk, I saw it in January, February, March, April, and May.
I don't own a single share of it.
Ooh, does that bother me?
And I saw it breaking out multiple times on market terminal.
Did not buy it.
Mistake.
Enter any reason you want.
That's okay.
And the beauty of this business, and I've learned this folks after many, many, many, many years
and many, many, many, many, many mistakes and missed stocks and so on and so forth.
is that not only is that okay, it's inevitable.
Nobody I know can consistently catch every big leading stock, every single cycle,
and buy the exact low and sell the exact high.
Literally, it's just not possible.
It's kind of like the proverbial high school boy that I always like to joke around with
for the example because people can relate to this,
walks into the high school dance and says,
oh, I want to kiss all the pretty girls.
It's not going to happen.
The good news is in markets, it's like,
buy every leading stock.
Sure, maybe some people, I don't know any of these people, and I've been in the business
for almost 30 years now, and I've interviewed over a trillion dollars on my podcast, Smart Money
Circle, and, you know, I've contributed at Forbes, I've been all over the news, CNBC, Fox,
all this kind of stuff, Bloomberg, nonstop, not one person, professional individual.
Do I know?
Catches every single time, every single stock, every single, it just doesn't happen.
There's realistic expectations and there's unrealistic expectations.
And the good news is you just need one stock or two stocks for the whole year and catch one or two good trends.
And you can have a phenomenal year.
I mean, really, really phenomenal year.
Take that in.
I mean, really think about that.
Three stocks, wow.
With the right position size, with the right trend, letting it go.
And when they go, they just go.
And yes, I'm going to miss some.
That's okay.
the attitude of gratitude, another big humbling thing, be grateful that A, you're alive today,
B, you're in the game. C, this is the greatest time in the world to ever be alive, in my opinion.
We have AI. My kids are young. I have a kid in middle school and a kid in elementary school.
They're using chat GPT. What? I was not a typewriter back then.
And I see how fast things evolve and how fast things unfold.
And the economy is the biggest it's ever been in history.
The stock market is the biggest it's ever been in history.
All-time highs.
Unbelievable success.
Unbelievable opportunity.
And we're here.
And yeah, I missed a few stocks.
I have a choice.
I can beat myself up, a negative ROI, by the way.
Or I can accept reality and focus on the next winner.
Find the next win.
Find the next win.
Find the next win.
By the way, this applies to not just markets, life.
I made a mistake.
Okay, let's say I want to go east.
I'm on a train.
I'm going west.
What am I going to do?
Stay on that train, hope it turns around and goes east?
No, get off at the next stop.
I'm in a trade and it's not working.
I'm going to get out.
Keep that loss small.
It's an error.
Why compound?
by making another error.
I got on the wrong train.
I'm going west.
I really want to go east.
Okay.
That's a mistake.
So I'm going to sit there and go keep going west.
I bought a stock.
It's down 5%, 7%, whatever it is.
Okay, it's obviously telling me the market's screaming.
Hey, this is not working.
For me, I have very little tolerance with losses.
Bye-bye.
I'm out.
And when it does work, just sit back and relax and enjoy the ride.
And yes, there's going to be pullbacks.
Yes, it's inevitable.
It's part of the process.
But the narrative, the inner talk, the mental capital, that's what matters more than anything else.
Because you've seen several times throughout history, people that have strong mental capital, they lose their money, they make it back.
Trump even did it, right?
At one point he was negative and then he came back and boom.
Became president, strong mental capital.
People that some athletes that have poor mental capital, people win the lottery.
And then they make a hundred million dollar contracts in Tyson or whatever.
These people that are just made so much money over the years,
there's documentaries about these athletes that make so much money,
but they don't know what to do and they end up broke.
Anybody can spend money.
When you have strong mental capital and you learn how to be successful,
and you learn how to have a positive, optimistic outlook,
the best is yet to come, attitude of gratitude, so on and so forth.
You rewire your brain for success.
It's really, really powerful.
be kind. Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful investors ever to walk this planet,
just gave a interview. I think it was last week, sent it to Gary. And in it, he guys says
the whole thing was about kindness. And he talked about how one gentleman, when he was young,
he think he was three years old. He got lost from his mom and somebody helped him go, he was
kind enough, the stranger to help him get back reunited with his mom. And that left a big impact on him.
And then decades later, Paul Tudor Jones was in a position to give back.
He set up Robin Hood, which is one of the biggest charities ever.
And helps, he's kind.
Helps with education, helps with poverty, helps with so much.
And just about all the major hedge funds in New York, go there, donate every year.
It's a big event, so on and so forth.
Just and all based on what?
Kindness.
Be kind to yourself.
It sounds so rudimentary.
Oh, Adam, of course.
I know this stuff.
Do you do it?
And when you have the right mindset and you look at the market as what it is, an endless place for opportunity, now all of a sudden that fighting the market, which I did for years, by the way, I know so many other people do too, just goes away.
That friction goes away.
The whole idea is to be in harmony with the market, which is just a play on the word harmony.
Be in harmony with the market.
That's the goal.
The market's not out to get you or any of that kind of stuff.
it is going to do what it's going to do.
The question is how do we interact with it?
Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.
Hope this is helpful.
I'm Adam Sarhan.
This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investors Edge with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, go to garyk.com, rewind, fast forward,
listen at your convenience on any device, 24-7, all for free. All right. So we spoke about a lot today.
Big piece of what I do, as you know, is mental capital. It's more, to me, it's more important than
just the physical because the physical comes and goes, but really the outlook, those are the things
that we can control. And with a positive and healthy and strong mental capital, we can
make the physical capital, it kind of has no choice but to come. It's kind of like the guy or the gal who goes to the gym and does the sit-ups and wants a six-pack or the flat stomach. If you show up and do the six-pack, you do the sit-ups, you eat right outside the gym and you exercise, right? The six-pack, I mean, the flat stomach's pretty much going to come. Again, discipline is more important than intelligence. The market, the world, life, doesn't reward intelligence by itself. I know a lot of smart people that can't trade their way out of a paper bag. I know a lot of smart people. I know a lot of smart people. I know a lot of smart people. I know a lot of smart people. I know a lot of smart people.
smart people that really earn a fraction of what they should earn. Why? Because they're not disciplined.
Oh, I don't feel like doing the sit-ups, Adam. I know I should. Adam, I'm not going to spend time going
through 100 stock charts or 200 charts or whatever it is. I don't want to do that work. I don't want to
take the time and look for breakouts. I don't want to take the time. It's very, very simple when you focus on
signals versus noise. Elon Musk has this line. Steve Jobs had it way back when. Signals move the needle.
Noise is just noise. So if I want to get a six-pack or a flat stomach, I'm going to do setups.
Okay. If I clap my hands all day long, I'm taking action, but I'm not getting the results. Why?
Because it's noise. I'm never going to get a six-pack or a flat stomach by clapping my hands.
I got to do the setups. You got to do the work. And intelligence by itself doesn't, it's not rewarded.
What's rewarded?
Discipline.
Showing up, especially when you don't want to,
and scanning, looking for the stocks, doing the work,
having the structure over the weekend,
taking the time to do the work, so on and so forth.
That's rewarded.
Knowing where you're going to,
I ask myself three questions before I buy any stock.
Where am I going to enter?
Number one.
Where am I going to exit?
Number two, and how much do I risk when I'm wrong?
Number three, knowing that most trade.
don't work. Another important insight, nugget of wisdom that I've picked up over the years.
As an active trader, most trades don't work and that's okay. Now, if you're buying and holding,
a complete different story. But as a trader, a person who buys and sells a lot, or not over-trading,
but just buys themselves leading growth stocks throughout the year, that's okay. Most trades don't
work as long as you keep the risk small and the reward big, bigger than the loss.
someone's like oh yeah i'm what's your trade ratio i had a conversation just yesterday
with the coaching somebody wanted me to coach them with the trading and like how much you know what's your
win ratio i'm like you're asking the wrong question i can tell from the question there's more that
you don't know than you know itself so let's say there's 10 trades and i lose nine out of 10 trades
another person has 10 trades they win 9 out of 10 trades well i have a 90% losing ratio well guess what
if i lost one nine times on minus 9 the 10th trade i win 10 net net i'm up 1
even though I had a 90% loss ratio, I still made money.
Now, the other person could win one nine times, so they're up nine.
The 10th trade, they lose 10.
They have a 90% win ratio, but they lost money.
Who do you want to give your money to?
Which trader do you want to be?
Again, you could tell so much by just the questions people ask about what they know, what
they don't know, their strengths, their weaknesses, and their blind spots, which, by the way,
we all have as humans.
Ray Dalio told us this is a great book called Principles.
I'm not affiliated with him.
I'm not endorsing the book.
I just tell you it's a good book I read and that's it.
Simple.
But I'm not promoting it.
I'm not being paid from it.
There's no relationship whatsoever.
Just a good book.
And he outlines his principles.
He was the biggest money manager of our generation.
And he wrote his book is called Principles.
And in it he talks about his principles that he uses to make decisions and how he
sees the world. And in it, he says, we all have strengths, weaknesses, and blind spots. So simple,
but so powerful. What are your strengths? What are your weaknesses? What are your blind spots?
Am I even asking the wrong questions? Like, what's your win ratio? It doesn't even matter.
The real question that matters is what are your, how big are your wins and how big are your losses?
And what's your overall performance? Any 10 trades, any one trade, any five trades, don't matter.
What's your process?
How do you find winning trades?
How do you handle losing trades?
Do you go off the deep end?
Do you have an emotional reaction every time you have a loss?
Do you get angry, mad, upset?
We're all human.
It's an external event.
So as we wrap up here, we're in a very strong market.
We're very extended to the upside.
I'm expecting a pullback.
Pullbacks are normal.
They're healthy.
they happen all the time.
This could be the making of an early bubble, like 99,000-ish type thing, 898, 97, 99, somewhere in that range,
where we can go parabolic and just have a huge move up.
And you can have a situation where it doesn't.
But for now, what I'd like to really just step back and make sure we're focused on the areas that are leading.
and I'm not just blindly by them and don't chase.
Chasing is another big mistake.
Traders make and investors make all the time.
It's human nature.
Let me go with what's working.
Well, okay, what is working?
We have semiconductors are up massive this year.
Let me just go put my money in that after a big move up.
And then they get a correction.
They get tagged.
Tagged is a nice way of saying,
stopped out and lose money.
Why?
because it's just not how things work.
So understanding that chasing after a big move up,
it's not the best strategy because most likely you get a pullback.
And if you buy it now after a big move up, when do you sell it?
Remember, where do I enter?
Where do I exit?
And how much do I risk when I'm wrong?
Super, super helpful from a zooming out higher level process standpoint.
Am I disciplined enough?
to do the work.
I'm not asking you to spend 20, 30, 40, 50 hours in front of a screen and just stare at the screen.
No.
But control that in your dialogue.
So you can make sense of what's happening in the market.
You can be in harmony with the market and hopefully catch a bunch of these trends and do very well.
I want nothing but people to make tremendous amount of success in the market and in life.
and believe that's all the time that we have for today.
As always, I want to thank you very much for being here.
Have a great weekend, everybody.
I'm Adam Sarhan.
This is the one and only Investors Edge.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
