Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Week In Review [05.24.2024 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: May 24, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Now looking for hub partners in your area. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan, and for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Friday, May 24th, 2024, and we've got a great show for you tonight.

We want to thank you very much for being here. Before we jump into the show and talk about all the fun things we have planned for you, just some quick, I guess, housekeeping or some headlines. As you know, this is a show about you and your money. All the fun points in between. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the show in your city, you can go to garyk.com, listen live or archive.

We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. But you can listen to us 24-7 anytime you want on any device for free. All on garyk.com. Also, you can follow Gary on X, or formerly known as Twitter. By just pressing the button, you can subscribe and Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox for free. You may email Gary, ask about his money, management services, or join his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com.

It's an excellent service. Gary does a deep dive into the market, shows you what he sees, not just tells you in this platform over the radio or podcast, he tells you verbally, but with conviction leaders, he actually shows you, writes reports, does nightly webcasts, weekly on a weekend does webcasts as well. It really covers what's working in the market and what's not working, gives action ideas and a whole lot more. And all of that is available on convictionleaders.com. That said, let's talk about leadership. It's one of my favorite topics and I love it. I've got a lot going on with leaders, but I'll get into that a little bit later.

But for now, it's the semiconductors. Nevidia came out this week. It's Friday, so it's the end of the week. I like doing weekend reviews and I'm a big picture kind of guy, which I'll get to again in the moment. But Navidia came out this week and smashed estimates. and that ignited a big rally on Wall Street. AI stocks had been really the leading group in the market. There's different kinds of leadership, just like in sports. You can have a team that's number one. Then you can have a team that's number two or number three,

and then they kind of rotate. The team just stays number one or a player stays number one, however you want to word it. But what we like to do is identify themes. What's working, what's not working, do more of what's working, less of what's not working. And then when you have leading themes or leading groups, a lot of them, something called the cousin stock theory, where cousin stocks, other stocks in a group, they tend to move in tandem. Not always, but many times. And then what happens is once you're able to identify those

leading groups, the earlier you can get into them, sink your teeth into them, so to speak, you know, the more you can participate on that upside. And the semiconductors, the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ, or the AI stock specifically are doing very, very well because that's where the leadership is as of right now. But to be very, very clear, and notes from Gary, which I'll read here, you want to make sure I can address, is that the leadership, the market itself is getting very narrow. The semiconductors, other technology and big financials continue to stand out, while transports, oils, and a lot of economically sensitive names are very, very, very weak. So we're getting into that narrow leadership, the bifurcated market, a tail of two tapes, if you will, however you want to word it, where it's really important to focus on the leaders.

Because leaders, there's a big difference between the strongest stock and the strongest group and the second strongest stock in that same group. So even the top five groups or top quartile or top ten groups out of them, you know, in the market versus the rest of them. If you focus on leadership, you can do really, really, really well. And if you get caught up in areas that aren't leading, you know, there's two problems there. One, those stocks likely are either not performing well. They're going down. You're losing money. And then B, there's an opportunity cost because you're not in the leaders, right?

So that's really, really important to keep in mind as well because let me talk to you about the concept of leadership because it's really, really important. After you buy a stock, there's only three things that can happen. A, it goes up, which is what you want when you buy it. B, it goes down, which you don't want, or C, it goes sideways. That's literally all that can happen. And the idea of leadership is you want to find stocks that are going up. So out of all the stocks that are going up in the market, when you focus on the strongest of the strong, the top 1% if you will,

the leading groups, you're able to identify those true market leaders or those leading groups and then really sink your teeth in and hopefully have the stocks that go up the most. not just a stock that goes up 2% when you have a stock like SMCI or Navidia or Arm or lots of other stocks that are up big that are leading and that's really, really important.

So that being said, that's why we look at leadership and we rank leadership for a reason. Think of your coach on a sports team. Look at Belichick and Brady. They just had the whole thing, right? The what was it, the roast of Brady? All right. Imagine you're the coach, and you've got Tom Brady as a quarterback who's an all-star, or Michael Jordan, any sports team, it really doesn't matter.

When your players are doing really, really well, you want to put them in there. But there are times where, hey, the guy's just not performing well, or he's injured, or he needs a break, or he's just got to rest. Or she's not doing well if it's a girl's team, or whatever the case may be. And you sub the players out. You know, in baseball, they have pinch hitter or pitch the pitcher, the pitcher needs a relief pitcher. You know, at the end of the game, the pitcher's touch is tired. I needed someone to come out and close out the game.

So it's kind of the same thing with stocks, where you want to put a roster together of the strongest stocks in the market, have those stocks hopefully perform well, and then almost kind of get out of the way. And this brings me to another point here, which is understanding the concept of putting your money to work for you, instead of you working for your money. You know, the markets a lot of times, not always, but many times it's counterintuitive in nature. Meaning what happens is people are expecting it to go up. One way, it goes the other way. Or they're expecting this and that happens.

And the reason why is because the way that we're trained in the quote unquote, you know, nine to five world or real world is the skill sets required there are completely different then the skill sets required to be successful in the market. Meaning most people trade their time for money. So they work, you know, 10 hours a day or nine hours a day or eight hours a day, whatever it is. They get paid a dollar an hour. I work eight hours. There's $8 for a day.

Thank you very much for your labor. At the end of the week or the end of the month, the end of the year, they get paid. Great. See you later. And that's that. Okay. There's a clear transaction. One hour versus X amount of dollars.

In the market, you're putting your, that's trading time for money. In the market, you're doing the opposite. you're putting your money to work for you. And when you're working that normal job, you're doing something. Let's just flip burgers as an example. Okay, I get paid $15 an hour to flip burgers at McDonald's or Burger King or Wendy's. Okay, great, I can do that job.

Hey, Adam, stand there, flip the burger. Great, I can do that. I'm going to flip X amount of burgers and X amount of time, systematize it, so on and so forth. There's my productivity. I can increase the productivity. Great, we get it. One plus one equals two type of a thing.

But in the market, it's not like that. You're trading your time for money. You're not trading time for money. You're putting your money to work for you. And then almost when things are working well, you want to kind of get out of the way. When things aren't working well, you've got to protect it. Warren Buffett's got a great line, which I love. He goes, there's two rules to investing.

Rule number one, don't lose money. Rule number two, never forget rule number one. So you have capital. Everybody wants, oh, appreciation on my capital. Well, you've got to protect the capital in order for it to appreciate. And that's one of the Gary's superpowers. He's so good at doing that is making sure he's not involved in big bear markets. He's not involved when stocks drop 40, 50, 60, 80, 90 percent.

Or at least he hasn't been since I've known him now for over 25 years. So, and watched him trade and all that fun stuff. So when you're an environment where you're in charge of what you buy, let's focus on what we can control. We can't control how much a stock goes up, but you can control where you enter, for the most part, where you enter, where you exit, bearing some unforeseen major gap up or down

or something like that, but just normally, you can pretty much control where you enter, where you exit, and how much you risk when you're wrong. Those are my three magic questions I ask myself before I enter any trade or any investment. It doesn't matter where I have a guy

who wants me to invest in the movie business. He makes Hallmark movies and Lifetime movies and all those kind of fun stuff. Okay, great. How much? What's the max risk? Where do I exit if I'm wrong? And then what kind of potential reward

is there on the other side of that if things work out well? So what can I control? I can't control how much a stock goes up. I don't have to, but I can control my risk. And I was interviewing a big money manager one time and I asked him, I said, you know, he actually, he asked me a great question. He goes, Adam, you know, what do you think you're buying? He said, oh, you're buying a stock or

you're buying a commodity of your ETF or whatever it is, right? He goes, no, you're buying and selling risk. He goes, Adam, you're not buying stocks. You're buying risk and selling risk, because you're risking your money, hopefully for a reward on the other side of it. So putting that framework together is really, really important when you ask yourself, how do I allocate my capital? What do I do with my money? How do I grow it? How do I invest it? How do I protect it?

Knowing the areas to avoid that Gary tells you and shares with you and tells people on Convictionleaders.com and so on and so forth is so important. Super important. Because those areas are going down. And then staying focused on the narrow areas or on the leading areas is also super, super important. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. services offered through call bomb capital management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators.

go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point, when it will mature, right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.

How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries,

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Cult Bomb. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan.

And in for Gary Kay, who's out today? In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, pause, and listen on any device anytime you want 24-7. So let's talk about a few more things. Well, not number one, but number one now. How about that? Next thing I want to talk about. How about that? We use the word next.

Next, spoke about the importance of leadership, focusing on the leaders. Focus on the importance of avoiding the laggards, the areas that are not working. Focus on the importance of understanding some basic framework on what it is that the objective here is. is to take healthy risk-adjusted return, you know, get risk-adjusted returns and just balance that risk-reward part of the equation and focus on what we can control, you know, where we enter how much risk we're wrong and where we exit. Okay, great. So let's talk about you've got, let's talk about making decisions. This is really, really, really, really important stuff because the large part of our results in life and in the market, it's a factor of the quality of the decisions that we make.

And there's two kinds of decisions for the sake of the scope of what I want to share with you today right now. First would be an emotional decision. Second would be a rational decision. Before I go any further, ask yourself, what do you think is better if somebody makes emotional decisions with their money or rational decisions? objective decisions. If they're calm, cool, collected, or if they're super hyper going all over the place and right left up, the rational, calm, cool, collected, well thought out, balanced

decisions nine out ten times are better than the super emotional, hyped up, borderline, not well thought out decisions. I wrote a book. It's called psychological analysis. The idea there is that fundamental and technical analysis are not enough to beat the market. If they were, everybody owned a few islands in the Caribbean. You know, two schools of thought on Wall Street right now, and they've been like that since I started in the 90s, are fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis, you study the company,

the business, like Warren Buffett does. Technical analysis, you study the stock, the chart, the patterns, the volume, the price, so on and so forth. Those are the two main schools of thought. And there's good here, there's good there. and everyone's free to do whatever they want. But for me, there was something missing. So I introduced this concept of psychological analysis.

I said, okay, well, we're all looking at the same data, more or less, the same stocks, more or less. Why are there some people that continue to crush the market and put up phenomenal returns? And I started studying those folks. Buffett, Paul Tudor Jones, William O'Neill, so on and so forth. There's something that they're doing, Stanley Drunk in Miller, George. George Soros, you know these legendary investors, David Tepp are gone and on and on. But why do they win, you know, you can't tell me it's luck that Buffett's been Buffett for 50 years. You get lucky for a week.

You get lucky for five years. Sure. You have a good run for 10 years. Sure. 50 years, you're lucky? No. There's something else. So the whole point, if you ask me to summarize it in the elevator pitch in one sentence of my work and psychological analysis, the book, is to learn how to make

rational, not emotional decisions with your money, especially when the market's moving. Because I am, the poster child, if you will, of the person that started off not knowing anything. I didn't go work at a big bank. I didn't work, you know, go to Harvard or Yale, any of those kind of schools. I have my master's degree in PolySai from, and undergrad PolySai as well, but nothing to do with finance. Like, I wanted to go get an MBA after I finished my undergrad. And they're like, oh, you've got four more years of school to do before, two more years of school before you can do the MBA, and another four years with the NBA.

It was just like, oh, no, because I didn't take any of the prerequisites. I'm like, okay. So I know I don't know. So I've got one job, learn. That's it. Literally, that's my job. And that's been my driving force since the late 90s when I started really getting involved with the markets

and fell in love with it. That's it. One job, learn. So these folks that make these rational decisions, they have a process. They have structure. And that's what I share with people. I want to share with you now is how to create your own structure.

So you can learn how to make rational, not emotional decisions. By planning ahead. Ben Franklin told us this way before the market was the market, right? Whenever Bank Franklin was alive, 200 years ago, 150 years ago, whatever it was. Great. He says what? So eloquently. Failing to prepare is prepared.

to fail. Say it again. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. I say it in the simpler version, you either prepare to win or you don't and you're preparing to lose. It's that simple. Preparation is massive. So on the weekend when the markets are closed is when I do most of my work or at nights. I go through the market, I go through charts, I do my research, I want to see those leadership. I look at percent change. I want to sort the strongest stocks and everything else and just look for price and volume are my two really most important things. Price is the most important thing, bar none. Everything else including volume is secondary for me. Where's the money? You know, the whole thing, why do people rob banks? That's where the money is. Well, how do I find leading

stocks? Look at the price action and sort the leaders. And there's free scans you can use online to get these things and bam. They're all over the place. And what happens? You can start realizing, oh, here are some of the strong areas. And leadership, leaders tend to stay leaders. Newton told us this way back when an object in motion does what, stays in motion. So the stock that's going up, most likely, it's going to continue going up. Not always, but most likely, until it stops. But for the most part, it's going higher. Same thing with the stocks are going down. That's why I'm looking for leadership. So I want to look at stocks near 52 week highs, near all-time highs, below that, above a 50-day moving average, you know, somewhere near a high

because that means a lot of the heavy lifting is already done. It's got that upward momentum. And then wait for pullbacks, wait for bases to form, wait for consolidations, create a watch list. And you could separate this in three ways or two ways, really. It doesn't matter. It's up to you. There's a watch list, and then there's a focus list or a ready list or a Go list or whatever it is that you want. Narrow, wide and narrow. There's a wide list. Here's a bunch of stocks.

And then here's a narrow group of stocks that I'm really focused on. And then I'll place my orders and say, hey, if XYZ goes above, let's say, I'm looking in a stock, many five to 100 for the last six months. And then all of a sudden it breaks above 100. I want to buy it. Here's my pivot point or my buy point or whatever word you want to use. If it gets above that price, I'm in. And I know I'm going.

going to have an exit at this price, if it goes back down, let's say, 98 or 95 or 92, whatever it is, okay, I'm out. And I know before I enter how much I'm going to risk if I'm wrong. And then I can put the orders in, I can put the alert in, and then I walk away. This way, my orders are planned before the open every Sunday and before the open every day and say, okay, I know I'm going to do this day. Now, during the day, I get breakouts. Sure. I want to see them. I want to know what's going on. I'll talk a lot more about that up next, about breakout setups and a whole lot more. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only from the Bachelor's edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM.

I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive.

Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business. Help your business. Help your neighbors. Discover a new. stream of income for your business when you partner with Amazon Hub Delivery. You and your team will deliver Amazon packages to customers in your neighborhood on a schedule that works for you, and you'll be

paid for every package you deliver. Getting started is easy. There's no delivery experience required, no long-term contracts, and you receive weekly direct deposits. Earn more. Gain exposure for your business. Apply today at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash H-UB delivery. Know a local business that would make a great partner, a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner, you name it. Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program. Visit amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more or refer a partner. That's amazon.com slash HUB delivery.

Now looking for hub partners in your area. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, ORA-Ida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more.

Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. Investor's Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. In case you miss any part of the show, then rewind it. Go to GaryK.com. You can fast forward pause on any device 24-7 all for free. So we left off by talking about the importance.

of preparation, preparing. You know, winners win for a reason. They're prepared, nine out of ten times. Some people get lucky. I'm not in the luck business. I'm in the preparation business. I want to stack the probability business is really what we're in. I want to stack the odds of success in my favor. What can I do to increase the probability of me being quote unquote right, having an edge, developing an edge, so on and so forth. So on the weekend, on nights where the market's closed, I like to know where are the best setups. Have a bigger watch list

over the weekends, sure. I share it with people on find leading stocks.com if you want, by all means. And then narrow it down. What are the best of the best?

Start wide, but then go narrow. And take the top five ideas, 10 ideas, top three ideas, top one idea. You just need one, and bam, you're very happy.

Then you've got a watch list. This is what I do. I got a narrow, watch list. Every day as stocks break out, I want to see that. And I share that also. What's breaking out today? What's moving? Where's the money? Again, show me the money, Jerry McGuire style. Show me the money. Show me the money. That's what we want in Wall Street. Our inventory is money. You know, I grew up. My father used to sell suits. That was his inventory. Guy at a suit store in New York City and he would sell suits to business people.

Okay, great. His inventory, shirts, ties, suits, so on and so forth, pants, whatever it is. Great. In our business with markets, it's money. So follow the money. Then you've got an ongoing, you can update the watch list, and it's almost like it's a living list, because things change. You know, you had housing stocks acting really, really well up until recently, and then all of a sudden, Toll Brothers reported earnings a few days ago, and what happened? Housing stocks fell hard. Toll Brothers broke down below the 50, even though initially it gapped up on earnings. And two days ago on Wednesday, bam, got hit below the 50. All right, something changed.

Very simple. And that happens all the time. By the way, housing stocks in general, not just Toll Brothers, but housing stocks, you could be financial stocks, it could be material stocks, it could be Element O P, QR, STUV. But money's constantly rotating. money's in motion. So focusing on those leaders and then when things fall off the list,

the avoid list, again, something I love that Gary does, he tells you what to watch, but else tells you what to avoid. Get out of the way and wait for them to set up again and see them as they're getting weaker or they're topping out and say,

oh, okay, this area is underperforming. And just, again, laser focus on the leadership, on leading areas. the strong, i.e., the strong stocks in the market. Really simple process, not easy to do. There's a difference between simple and easy. At first, things are hard.

You've learned how to ride a bike. I have young kids on teaching how to ride a bike. Okay, great. First it's hard, but then it's easy. Losing weight. It's simple. Calories in versus calories out. Not easy.

Most people are overweight, but it's a simple concept. Making money. It's the same thing. People talking all the time, Adam, I wish I was richer. I want to make, you know, more money. Well, that's one side of it, but how much you spend it? Someone makes $10 million a year. They spend $11. They're negative 1 for the year.

But he made $10 million. They spent $11. There's a documentary on Netflix. I think it's called broke where athletes get these crazy, ginormous contracts, but they're broke afterwards. Or somebody wins a lottery. He has no money. And then all of a sudden they become $50 million, $100 million,

whatever it is. And then they're broke shortly thereafter. Year, two, three, five, whatever, 10, whatever it is. So, but it's cash flow in versus cash flow out. Same formula, calories and calories out. Simple, not easy, right? Same concept. Having the discipline to do something week in, week out, day in, day out,

and then at the same time, avoid the temptation of overtrading, getting in, getting out, getting out 400 times. I'm just throwing a number out there. Way too many times, let's put it that way. That's really, really important. If there's one thing you can take away, that away. Another thing, make rational, not emotional decisions. Any kind of structure you can create for yourself, folks, is really powerful. Because that'll help you over time reduce a lot of unforced

errors. And that's my next point. I like tennis. In tennis, teaching my kids, there's unforced errors. I hit the ball really hard. It goes out. The other player gets a point. The other player literally did not do a single thing. But they got the point anyway. That's what matters. The points on the board, right? Same thing here.

If I can reduce my number of unforced errors or tell the kids, I tell them, reduce the number of unforced errors. Just get the ball in. They want to put power in there. They want to smack it really hard. Just hit the ball and get it in. And let the other player make the unforced errors. Those that reduce the unforced errors, by definition,

you kind of like lift yourself up. so much higher, the probability of success increases significantly. Again, it comes back to the quality of the decisions. It's a superpower. I've made all these mistakes so you don't have to. And I outline all this in the book and psychological analysis. And there's cartoons in there. It's the only finance book that I know are investing book with cartoons in it. But again, being able to simplify something, it's very strong, very powerful. Superpower. In your mind's eye, There's 10,000 tickers out there. Stocks, ETFs, commodities, currencies.

Ding, ding, ding, blah, blah, but too much. Simple. So I need structure. And that's where the leadership comes into play. Where are those stocks that are leading? What groups are leading? And then literally, everything else that's lagging, I don't even focus on it.

It's not part of my periphery. It's not part of my thinking. Now, the avoid area is, sure, avoid it. but I'm not hunting for stocks to buy in those areas that are lacking and lacking really bad. I have no interest in owning those areas. No, I'm sure, but when I'm focused on doing the research which stocks to buy, which setups, which patterns, you know, all that fun stuff, great. It's the leaders.

So next nugget of wisdom I want to share with you or timeless lesson I want to share with you. It's because I want to give you the framework. So you can make better decisions. So you can take this and hopefully benefit from it. I like actually in the book, I say there's an infinite number of ways people can make money in the market. Your job is to find one that works for you. Know thyself is the next point. Find an approach that works for you.

I was on the phone this morning with one of my coaching clients and he said to me, he goes, Adam, you know, I don't have the stomach to hold Navidia. So full disclosure, I'm long Navidia. I'm up really big on it. held it for over a year now. And it's a, he doesn't have the stomach for it. I said, okay, listen, Ken, find an approach that works for you. Because it's really important for you to find that approach because there's no quote unquote right or wrong.

It's what's right for you. So as an example, a little example, I went to a physical trainer. I want to get in shape, sweat a little bit, all that fun stuff. Great. guy's 25 years old or 24 years old young kid and he's like, I'm going to make you work out so hard you're going to throw up at him. I said, no, you're not. See you later. Bye-bye. It's not what I want to do. It's not aligned with my goals. I have no interest in doing any of that stuff. Now, a 22-year-old or younger person or someone else, even older than me, great, might want to do that. It's not for me. His program, it's not for me. I'm not going to be able to follow it. What do I have any interest in throwing up

from working out, let alone throwing up for anything? That's why I don't drink. One of the many reasons I don't drink. But anyway, side note, I digress. There's nothing inherently wrong with that trainer's program. It might work great, and if I do it, it might get great results. But I know myself, and I know that I'm not going to do it, and I know that it's not good for me, because I'm not going to continue it.

So I'm not going to start with the guy because it's not a good match. Someone else might do it and get great results, get better results than what I chose to do. That's okay. We both can win. So find an approach that works for you. That's really, really, really important. Really, I can't, I mean, underline it, italics, emphasize it, you know, caps, all caps, exclamation marks, whatever you want to do. Know thyself.

I'm very good at the big picture. I'm very bad at the short-term details in anything. So I'm going to be doing things and focused on things that are big picture. not narrow minutia. It's not my world. But big picture, I shine. So know thyself. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.

I'm Adam Sarin, and this is the one and only investor there. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is, answer, what is the future of computing? Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM

because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conta? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business. Help your business. Help your neighbors. Discover a new stream of income for your business when you partner with Amazon Hub delivery. You and your team will deliver Amazon packages to customers in your neighborhood on a schedule that works for you. And you'll be paid for every package you deliver. Getting started is easy.

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Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery.

Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or miss any part of the show, you can go to Gary Culper. Gary K.com. Rewind, fast forward, listen at your leisure 24 seconds, any device you want for free, all on GaryKK. com. So what's happening now? We've got covered a lot, talked about the market. One more point I want to share, just to be real clear.

The Dow was down 600 points yesterday, over 600 points. The market had every chance in the world to fall. NASDAQ up, by the way. there's a again go back to that whole thing of know thyself and know what's good know your area know your strength no you know look at leadership

know the market be able to be objective look at things I'm summarizing what we spoke about today look at and I've mentioned to you before on the show look at things objectively take yourself out of it you know remove the cognitive biases from your decision making process another I have a whole chapter

on that which is really really important when you look at the market, you want to be in the right areas. So the NASDAQ's leading, but you've got the Dow that's lagging. You've got the S&P 400, the midcaps, MDY, if you want a ticker to follow. The Dow's DIA is pulling in, it's lagging compared to the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100. The IWM, the Russell 2000, lagging as well compared to the NASDAQ 100. That could change, but for now they're lagging. that's okay. But understand that things have been flow, things are fluid, things change.

It's really important. So to know thyself, we spoke about, make better decisions we spoke about by removing the emotion from the decision-making process. By the way, any way you want. I'm just telling you for me, I plan ahead. That's what works for me. I'm big picture. I don't like to look at the market all day, every day, every single tick. To me, that doesn't mesh well with me. Just like the working out. There's nothing wrong with doing that. In fact, some people have a super-pillar. doing that. I'm just, to me, that's not ideal for my makeup. Okay, great. So what's good for me is to zoom out. If I can zoom out, I do much better. So find what works for you. That's the key. Leadership. You want to focus on stocks that are leading. How do you know what's leading, Adam?

Well, you can sort them year to date percent changes. You can sort them by stocks hitting 52-week highs. You can sort them by stocks hitting all-time highs. You can sort them by stocks that are above the 50-day moving average, below the 50 day moving average, you could sort them by the 21 day moving average. There's so many different ways or any combination thereof. Maybe it's 10% below a 52 week high or 20% below 52 week high or, you know, near a 50% moving out or above a 50. There's so many ways to do it.

Again, find something that works for you. Then you have a universe of stocks once you get those scans down and you can focus on the stocks that meet your criteria. Maybe you really like biotech stocks. or semiconductors or housing stocks or whatever it is. You know, Warren Buffett famously back in the 2000s in the dot-com boom missed out on a lot of those internet stocks. Subsequently, he missed out on the crash too.

He didn't get knocked down 80% when they came crashing down or more. Many of them went bankrupt and they're not even around anymore. You know, Yahoo, the Y-H-O-O was a ticker that made Mark Cuban a billionaire, let him to buy the, well, just built his empire. It doesn't trade anymore. It's like Yahoo's not there anymore. So Buffett famously said, I know my circle of competence. I know my lane.

I'm not going to leave my circle of competence. I don't know anything about dot-com stocks is what Buffett's saying. It's not my lane. I have no idea. So I'm not going to participate. And people criticized him on the way up. And then they applauded him on the way down because he missed the frenzy. He didn't get involved with all that, the madness of the crowd.

So again, know thyself. know what you're good at. Stay focused on that. Really, really powerful. There are areas in the market that are cracking now, not cracking open, like, oh my God, we're going into a bare market tomorrow, but there's areas that are weak. Know them. Avoid them. Transportation stocks, oils like I mentioned earlier, a lot of the economic sensitive areas are just acting weak.

That could change the small caps, weak compared to the NASDAQ 100. That could change. But on watch. Gold was a really, really strong area up until recently. Gold is in pullback mode. Okay, GLD is the ticker there. It's still above the 50, but a little weak. So we'll see if Thursday yesterday was a big sell-off, if it could lead to more pulling back.

We're up four or five weeks in a row depending on the index that you want to look at. The NASDAQ has some fear leading for the most part. But they're extended and they can easily pull back. So understand the markets are forward. looking mechanisms. And many people on Wall Street look backwards, but the market's looking forwards. So I get this all the time. One of the major reasons why people just have a hard time understanding what's going on and making money and getting ahead. It's understanding how to control themselves and making sure they're aligned with what works for them, so on and so forth.

But really, a lot of it has to do with their ability to understand how the market works and the market's forward-looking. Earnings, data, economic data. data, data in and of itself, by definition, is rearview mirror. Oh, Navidio reported that quarter? That quarter is over. The market's looking forward. Market discounting the next six to 12 months, nine months. But people are looking at data that's backwards. So it's almost like driving a car only looking in the rearview mirror. That's why a lot of people just, they don't get that in the market.

That dichotomy, that difference. They're looking at the data, which is backwards. Oh, GDP grew this much last quarter. Okay, good. What's going to happen going forward? So think of that. Next, the Fed put or the central banks, and we posted this on GaryK.com earlier today. Goldman Sachs had a report central banks

are beginning to cut rates, loosening their policy. What's the concept of the central bank put or the Fed put? If the market rolls over and gets in trouble, the Fed can cut rates or other central banks also, and then all of a sudden that's going to stimulate the market, stimulate both Main Street and Wall Street, and then stocks will rally again.

That's the concept of the Fed put. For now, the Fed's on hold. Inflation is still public enemy number one for the Fed. You know, we haven't seen inflation drop big time yet. It's still above 2%, which is where the Fed ideally wants to have it. And remember, it was below 2% for many, many years, from 08 all the way up until right around COVID. Inflation was just not a problem. It was very, very low. And then all of a sudden the Fed went, you know, pedal to the metal after COVID, and that sparked inflation. And now they're trying to, they can raise rates, raise rates, and now they're trying to slow it down, you know, bring inflation down again. But if inflation starts coming down and the market gets in trouble, guess what? They can always raise rates.

So, believe that's all the time that we have for today. I want to thank you all for being here. Have a great weekend, everybody. Like Gary says, hug the children, hug your, family hug yourself be be happy enjoy recharge those batteries and we'll speak to you again soon have a great week of everybody this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to garyk dot com that's garykk dot com want to earn extra income for your business amazon hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries when you become a partner you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your on a schedule that works for you.

With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.

It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in-store tags to earn on Eleanor. items from Celsius, body armor, or aida, silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.