Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Week In Review [10.02.2026 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: October 2, 2026

https://garykaltbaum.com/ The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or ...BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan, in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Friday, October 2nd, 2026. We have a great show for you tonight. As always, we want to thank you very much for being here.
Starting point is 00:00:25 It's a Friday, so I'm going to do the week in review. The quarter just ended, so I'll do some quarter. in review and set the stage for what may happen going forward in Q4. But for now, I have some housekeeping and then some notes from Gary and then we'll dive into it. So housekeeping is, as you know, this is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between. If you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen on any device for free anytime you want. All that's available on GaryK.com. You can also subscribe with Gary's morning notes directly to your inbox. You can email ask about his money management services. If you want his premium service,
Starting point is 00:01:06 it's convictionleaders.com. You can take a free trial. Gary updates members there several times a day, does nightly webcasts, shows you the charts. Here you can listen to him, but with conviction leaders, you can also see the charts, and I like that as well. And it's pretty much every day. So it's really, really just powerful stuff. All that's available at convictionleaders.com. All right, some notes from Gary. make sure that I do my job and convey the messages. Gary said he was worried about how yields finished today. They opened lower and they finished higher. We'll see what ends up happening there.
Starting point is 00:01:39 Obviously, yields are important, so we'll watch those. That's, you know, high level, a big thing to focus on. Next thing, Gary says, leading areas continue to lead, and the semiconductors, AI stocks are beginning to come on and, you know, awake again from their... consolidation, you know, early in Q2, they had a huge explosive run. SMH, if you look at the semiconductor index and a lot of these semiconductor stocks, massive, massive rally.
Starting point is 00:02:08 And then most of Q3, they just consolidated, which is normal. They built the base. As they did that, other areas took over. But that's why, in Gary St. coming back on, those areas were quiet for a little bit. Oil led a lot during Q3 and some other areas as well, for obvious reasons. since oil prices went up a lot, but now the AI, big cap tech, are starting to lead again. Gary says we remain on a void for most areas of the market, though some areas bounced today, like the transports as oil came down a little bit, but most of the things do not impress.
Starting point is 00:02:45 Next, Gary says they were trying to spin the employment number, but it was not good. The jobs number came in at 29,000 jobs, which pretty much stinks. and will probably be revised down just like the last two months. And then in other news, Seagate, STX, and Western Digital, both gaped down today on news that, believe it's Tshiba. Let me double check here. It was one of them. It was one of the big, basically on news that there's more competition in the space.
Starting point is 00:03:21 So, yeah, I think it was Western Digital Seagate. Yeah, it's... Yeah, Toshiba. Tashiva's going to boost its production of a key AI storage product, potentially hurting the strong pricing power that Western Digital and Seagate currently enjoy. So, STX and the WDC both fell a little bit on that news, but they both rallied back by the close. So those are the notes from Gary.
Starting point is 00:03:46 Just want to make sure I do my job and read those notes to you as they're delivered to me. So, you know, I'm the messenger. Make sure I get that job done. Now we'll talk about the market. getting what happened and what's going on. Today, thanks to marketterminal.com, right at the open, I saw the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100, break out of a nice cup and handle pattern.
Starting point is 00:04:07 It broke out, hid a new all-time high. That's the NASDAQ 100, folks, not some small penny stock, it's NASDAQ 100. Then it sold off. At around 10, 10, 30-ish, 11 Eastern, you started seeing sellers show up, and you had a week closed for pretty much, for the QQQQ and pretty much a lot of other stuff.
Starting point is 00:04:26 stocks that were acting well as well. Navidia, NVDA, also right at the open today, thanks to marketternal.com. I saw that breakout as well above 234.76. And it closed in the lower half of the range as well, but above the high of the last four or five days and going back the last several weeks. So a little breakout there. A week close in Navidia, also in the NASDAQ 100. Not the end of the world.
Starting point is 00:04:52 It's just not the best on a short-term basis. We are up a lot. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some, you know, a little pullback here. Even this little breakout could fail, could roll over and then take off again. I mean, we're up three weeks in a row in the NASDAQ and they're pretty strong up weeks. I think four the last five weeks, if I'm not mistaken, two, four, six, no, four the last six weeks were up in the QQQQ. So again, just, well, actually, if you go back to July, I think you've only had two down weeks in the NASDAQ 100. So clearly some accumulation happening beneath the surface, it's not front and center so everyone
Starting point is 00:05:30 can see it. It's there. It's just you have to focus and pay attention. That's kind of my job here to make sure I see things and I share them with you. So you can see them too. So yeah, going back to that July low at the end of July when that guy Leopold was over leveraged and he kind of was forced to capitulate and give up a lot of a stock, we've had two down weeks in the QQQQ and the NASDAQ 100.
Starting point is 00:05:54 other week since the end of July has been up. That to me is strong. And we broke out this week it had a new all-time high. Yes, we did pull back. Yes, it's not the cleanest breakout because it's a week close, but it's still a breakout nonetheless. And it's an all-time high. The last time we broke out to an all-time high was just recently, it rolled over and just continued forming that handle. It's binary at this juncture. One of two things is going to happen. Either this breakout works and we have a strong Q4 and it rallies, or the breakout fails, we roll over, and then we go back into the base
Starting point is 00:06:29 and we're still basing again. I mean, that's really it for the NASDAQ-100. Those are the two scenarios. Now, just because the breakout fails doesn't mean that the move is over it. Lots of time you see breakouts fail and then it takes some more time before they get going again.
Starting point is 00:06:42 And that's normal. It happens. But when, you know, let's say the whole idea of a breakout, somebody called me this morning, actually is a listener to the show and had asked me a question, question about a breakout. The whole idea of a breakout is that it's an inflection point. Something has changed. So if a stock is trading between, let's say, 50 and 55 for six months,
Starting point is 00:07:04 if that stock's going to double and go to 100, it has to get above 55 first. So if for six months it gets near 55 and it falls down to 50, then gets back up to 55 and falls, you know, those two areas, support would be 50 in that example, and then resistance will be 55. Again, if the stock is going to break out and double and triple and quadruple, it has to break out of that range first. And it's normal to see stocks trade in those trading ranges because that's just how markets work. It's psychology 101. Think of somebody who runs a race. You can't run a race and just keep running forever.
Starting point is 00:07:36 Eventually, you have to pause and just take a breath, take a breather. Markets do the exact same thing. And by the way, it applies to just about all freely traded markets, not just stocks. You see this in commodities and futures and currencies. In anything that's publicly traded that I've followed that has price and volume, again, that's freely traded. You see this phenomenon happen over and over and over again. So that's where the expression, the markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. It goes up like what happened in Q2.
Starting point is 00:08:08 It goes sideways for Q3. And then what I'm thinking is going to happen here. And again, this could change tomorrow if the breakout fails. and we get a lot of selling, guess what? You have another leg higher in Q4. I've seen this thing happen over and over and over again so many times. So from my stance or my quote unquote thought process here, we're in a situation where the S&P 500 is less than 2% below its all time high,
Starting point is 00:08:37 less than percent and a half below its all time high, right? The NASDAQ 100 hit an all-time high today. That's strong. Now, under the surface, there's a lot of weakness. Yes, 100%. But when you zoom out and look at the major indices, okay, the big cap tech are leading. You can look at Apple.
Starting point is 00:08:58 I think Apple is what, 2% below its all-time high? Hold on a second here. I don't want them to speak. Yeah, about three, between three and four, but 3.3, around less than 4% below its all-time high. That's Apple. NVIDIA, NVIDIA. By the way, Apple is AAPL.
Starting point is 00:09:14 Now, Navidia is less than 1% below its all-time high. Again, I can go on and on and on, but you get the gist of it, right? Under the surface, there's always areas that are going to rotate. And I call that the great mini-rotation. In the old days, there was a rotation out of stocks into bonds and vice versa. It was called the Great Rotation. So I've noticed a phenomenon after trading stocks and markets for decades now since the 90s. It's called the Great Mini Rotation.
Starting point is 00:09:44 This is not a scientific term or, you know, this is just my observation, where the major averages just move sideways or grind higher, like what's happening now. And then under the surface, you have a lot of weakness. And leading areas, like the semiconductors led in Q2, they paused in Q3, and they passed the baton. Think of like a relay race to the energy stocks. And then they started leading while the semiconductors paused. And now semiconductors are kind of waking up again while energy stocks are pulling back.
Starting point is 00:10:13 and then other groups can come and go as well. Financials, XLF. No, Bueno. You know, I don't like to see a market where financials are in trouble. Granted, the bond yields that Gary keeps talking about, and he's right on, spot on the money, 100% concerned about it.
Starting point is 00:10:29 It could be a real big problem. It's one of those things like musical chairs, where as long as the music's playing, it's fine, but once the music stops, look out below. So up next, that's all the time we have for right now. Up next, you've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adams. Sarhan, this is the one and only Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:10:47 Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.
Starting point is 00:11:27 understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-4-2-5-9.
Starting point is 00:11:52 That's 888-4-22-55-9. advisory services offered through Coltbaum capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.
Starting point is 00:12:19 It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or miss any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind fast forward, listen at your. convenience anytime you want on any device. So for now, we've got a situation where I was talking at the beginning of the show about the major indices, the great mini rotation. It's just something that I've observed over the years where you have the major indices grind higher and then sectors rotate, leadership rotates under the surface. Again, just a recent example, Q2, semiconductors, the SMH was leading
Starting point is 00:13:06 and then the other areas were kind of lagging. That led the market to a huge rally. And then you consolidate. You move sideways. It's normal. It's healthy. It's how, you know, the market take the stairs up. That's what they mean. Goes up. Q2, sideways Q3. And then there's a chance it goes up again in Q4. It doesn't have to go up, but there's a chance it does. So, okay, under the surface, there's areas of the market, pockets of a lot of weaknesses. Again, Gary's mentioned them and he's on it like white on rice and does a phenomenal job of calling that out. Areas to avoid. I don't want to be in lagging areas. And there's something. times leading areas turn into lagging areas. Like the financials, look at the
Starting point is 00:13:46 XLF when you have a chance. It's below the 200 day moving average. No, Buono. It's not a good sign. Transportation stocks, you can look at the IYT, but the XLF is the financials. If you want to look at the IYT, you can see that as well. And that had a pretty big pullback recently. It's below its 200 day moving average. Again, no Buena. Those are, those two areas are very important. foreign areas of the market. The semiconductors, the SMH, was quiet. It had to consolidate that move in Q2. It did that for Q3. And now it's coming up the right side of a big potential cup pattern or a new base. And it got below its 50 day for a while. And it was living below its 50 day for several weeks.
Starting point is 00:14:31 And then just recently got back above its 50 day. So again, things change. Fungible is a word. It means flexible. Things change. And in the markets, things change. It's very easy to be very rigid because in life, you know, our brains, the way that our brains were just created throughout centuries of living as humans, it's programmed. It seeks certainty. But the future by definition is uncertain. But we want certainty. There lies a big disconnect for many people. Second big disconnect is the emotions.
Starting point is 00:15:09 The emotions come in and like, oh, guess what? what? Emotion, we make emotional decisions. We don't, most people aren't even aware of it. The fact, my book was called psychological analysis. It was number one on Amazon every day for three months. Thank you everybody for supporting it and leaving nice reviews on Amazon. The whole idea is that it teaches people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with their money. But we're still making emotional decisions. If you have a mind, you have a bias, you have biases. There's something called cognitive biases which impact our judgment, impact our ability to make objective decisions. Most people have no idea.
Starting point is 00:15:44 They're making emotional decisions. You ask them, they're like, oh, no, I'm making rational decisions. I'm not emotional with the market. I'm not emotional with my money. Sure, right? It's another one of those. Ray Dalio talks about that, where if you study history, you study humans, it's like, okay, you're not the first person going through that.
Starting point is 00:16:00 So when you understand how, think of it like a user manual, in the old days we used to have paper manuals, is how things work, and you'd open the manual up and you'd read it. There is no manual for the book. brain on how the brain works on how we make decisions. Everyone's different, everyone has different motives, different, you know, pain, pleasure, associations on different things. Great. Different drivers, different factors that impact their decisions, different cognitive abilities and levels of intelligence, so on and so forth. What we do with the information, the market's just sending
Starting point is 00:16:32 out information. I always like to say the market's speaking and then ask, are you listening? The market's speaking to us all day every day. It's not verbal. Like right now, I'm verbally communicating with you. But the markets are speaking nonverbally. You see stocks breaking out. Like this morning, I opened up my screen on Market Terminal. I saw QQQ breaking out. I saw NVIDE breaking out. I saw SMCI, a little mid-level breakout. I saw Light L-I-T-E getting ready to break out. You know, I've got setups on Market Terminal, not just breakouts. And so many more. There was over 20. I'm like, okay, something's happening here. It's not just like Gary says, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying and doing the selling. Then we looked at volume and market terminal I got volume. The big
Starting point is 00:17:15 institutions can't hide. When they're managing billions and billions and billions of dollars, they're going to move in and out that shows up in volume. I want to see stocks and have high volume. Especially if they're breaking out on high volume, that tells me something has changed. It tells me the big institutions are in there buying. And the reason why I focus on breakout is because it's a catalyst and it's binary. Either the breakout works or it doesn't. And just because a breakout doesn't work, doesn't mean it can't set up and break out again. Sometimes it does. But if it's, again, that example between 55 and 50, if the stock's trading between 55 and 50 for six months,
Starting point is 00:17:52 if it's going to double, it has to, by definition, break out above 55. Now it could break out and go to 56 and go back to 54 and then go to 56. You know, it can futs around and go back and forth and up and down, left and right, and drive somebody bonkers before it actually ultimately goes to 70, 80, 90, 100. but that's just the way the market works. So my job is to get aligned with what's happening in the market and put my biases aside, put my thoughts aside, and really just be as objective about this as possible.
Starting point is 00:18:26 One of the conflict resolutions, one of the things people like doing is avoiding conflict. So it's called avoidant attachment style or avoidant behavior. You can Google it, you can AI do whatever you want to do to learn about it, but it's just part of how we all, all our. brains function and work. And one of the, I guess, interesting things for me, at least, I love psychology. I'm not a psychiatrist. I'm not a psychologist, by the way. I'm just a practical investor. And I understand that I understood at a very early age that success in this business
Starting point is 00:18:58 depends on me. In your case, it's on you, right? There's no one's going to come give me money. No one's going to come teach me how to do something. If I want it, I've got to, you know, upgrade the user. Like we upgrade cell phones. I've got to upgrade my ability to interact. and be in harmony, harmony with the market. So, okay, if I'm going to take full responsibility for my actions and I'm responsible for my performance, I want to perform at an elite level, just how my brain's wired. If I'm playing basketball, I'm going to shoot a lot of baskets.
Starting point is 00:19:25 If I'm going to study basketball, watch a tape and so on and so forth, football, baseball, you know, so on and so forth. Okay. But now, in this business, we have the pleasure of studying. There's charts. There's history. There's former winners. You go back 100 years and look at stocks.
Starting point is 00:19:41 so on, which I've done by the way, and so on and so forth, you see patterns. Why? Because human nature never changes. The names change. The stocks change. The centuries change. But the underlying forces that drive markets, it's human nature. It's crowd psychology. It's how humans function. Hundreds of years ago, there was a tulip bubble. Tulips, they grow out of the ground. And the price of tulips were bonkers in Holland. The Dutch tulip bubble, you can Google it if you want to read about it. And then afterwards, there was a huge bust. And people made and lost fortunes. And by the way, there's been numerous, countless bubbles and busts since.
Starting point is 00:20:20 When I started in the late 90s, it was in the middle of the dot-com bubble. I didn't even know what was going on. I would just see stocks go up so much. I'm like, oh, my goodness. And then there was a huge crash, 2000, 2002. And there was a housing bubble until 2008. And then that crashed. And then there was, you know, easy money from the Fed.
Starting point is 00:20:36 They printed money, so on and so forth. and then onwards and upwards and upwards. And it just repeats over and over and over again. Human nature. All right. Up next, you've got a lot more to cover. I want to thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
Starting point is 00:21:11 You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Starting point is 00:21:26 And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or miss any part of the show, you can go to garyk.com, rewind, fast forward, listen anytime you want for free. And if I go fast, I do go fast. There's so much to say in so little time. You can pause, rewind, fast forward, listen, and relisten at your convenience anytime you want. All right, so a few things here, folks. We spoke about the market.
Starting point is 00:22:06 We can review and I'll give you some breakout. Spoke about decision-making the power of being intellectually honest with yourself, understanding what actually drives our decisions. It's the emotions. Spoiler alert. And more importantly, how to create guardrails to protect ourselves from those emotional decisions. And that's by planning in advance, by having a plan and then trade your plan. You know, I do a lot of my work on weekends and nights when the markets are closed because I want to find those leaders.
Starting point is 00:22:36 I want to find those breakouts. I want to find the stock setting up to break out, which, by the way, all that's available on market terminology. I just click on the setups. And right there I've got them. So I want to be able to be in a situation where it's very easy to, at least very easy for me to see, hey, listen, I want to go out there and say, you know what? I can do, I can make sense of the market. I can listen to the market while it's speaking. You know, that's the market speaking.
Starting point is 00:23:06 My job is to listen. So how do I do that is just look at what happened. Look at price. Because price doesn't lie. So when you look at their week in review, here we go, let's dive in. For the week, the NASDAQ 100 led the way hit a new all-time high, broke out of a nice base this week. Nice base, you know, stares up, look at Q2, look on a weekly chart for the QQQQQ. Nice rally in Q2, move sideways for Q3.
Starting point is 00:23:31 And now we could be beginning, potentially, another leg higher in Q4. We are entering earnings season over the next few weeks, and that's going to drive markets. that's going to be a big piece of the puzzle going forward because earnings are important. And we'll see what happens. The big banks report first, the kickoff earnings season. And then after that, we've got a lot more earnings that come out, tech stocks, so on and so forth. But for now, it's a really good looking weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100. The SP 500, the SPY, it's right below it.
Starting point is 00:24:06 It hasn't broken out yet, but it's still in that basing phase. And it's about to break out. It looks like it's about to break out. It's one and a half, less than one and a quarter percent below an all-time high. It's just really strong. And you've every chance in the world to fall, it hasn't. And folks, to me, instead it actually broke, the NASDAQ broke out. To me, that tells me everything I need to know.
Starting point is 00:24:27 We had oil prices near 100. We had bond yields going bonkers, highest level in over 25 years, 20 years, whatever it's been this early 2000s. You've got all these reasons. Jobs report is soft. Last two, you know, other jobs reports have been revoked. viz lower, so on and so forth. Fed's raising rates. All these reasons why the market can fall instead of falling, it breaks out.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Somebody asked me, reason why are you bullish, you know, bullish, not bullish? I'm just listening to the market. There's areas to avoid, absolutely. But there's areas that are working. So again, we can review. That's a NASDAQ, that's the S&P. I want to look at the Dow. Isn't, you know, the next one up?
Starting point is 00:25:02 That one's not as strong. In fact, ended lower this week, bouncing off of its longer term, 200-day moving average. it's only 30 stocks, but weaker on a relative basis. It's about 6.5% below its all-time high. And then the midcaps, the M-D-Y, the Dow was DIA, if you want to follow the E-TF. Mid-Caps had a big week this week. It was below the 200-day and it closed above it. That's a big defensive week on a weekly chart.
Starting point is 00:25:29 And that's about 7% below its, or 6.7, 6.6% below its all-time high. So again, just pulling back. Why? Because it's more sensitive to higher interest rates of mid-capped stock. And then the small caps, the IWM, same thing, bounced off of its 200-day moving average, and that's about 8%, 7.5 to 8%, roughly I'm rounding here, about 8% below its all-time high. And that's pulling back also because the Fed raised rates and they're likely going to raise again. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:25:57 Today's jobs report led many people to say, oh, the Fed doesn't have to raise in October. That's okay. They're probably going to raise again if inflation stays high. Now, if inflation starts coming down, which could happen, then the Fed might not have to raise again. But again, it's one of those wait and see things. And we'll see what happens in the lease. We'll see what happens with food and energy prices. It's not just energy.
Starting point is 00:26:15 It's also food. Take a look at corn, C-O-R-N, E-T-F that tracks corn prices. Thankfully, that's been coming down a lot over the last, just week, the last several sessions. Soybeans, S-O-Y-B. You know, all this stuff goes into inflation. S-Y-B down, like down a decent amount this week. Not as much as corn, but down. Actually, let me check.
Starting point is 00:26:36 Soybeans is down about 2% for the week. corn is down about four and a half. Yeah, 4.4. So corn is down more for the week. But again, you can see just food prices are coming down. Wheat, W-E-A-T is down about 3% for the week. That came down a lot over the last several weeks. So if corn and soybeans and wheat and other things, sugar and all these things, coffee,
Starting point is 00:27:01 all this stuff, these commodities start coming down, energy prices start coming, oil prices start coming down, guess what's going to happen if you? future inflation reports, it'll come down also. Again, just connecting dots on a high level. It's all this business is about. And anticipating, not predicting, guessing, oh, yeah, this will happen, that'll happen, the one, so on and so forth. No, it's very simple.
Starting point is 00:27:26 Most likely, if you're looking at inflation as being public enemy number one right now, which in my opinion it is, most likely if oil, food and energy prices go down, what's going to happen to inflation? it's going to likely go down. Well, okay. That's it. Keep it that simple. Overtinking is common for people like us that watch markets.
Starting point is 00:27:49 Because there's a joy, pain and pleasure. There's a pleasure associated with being smart and feeling good and being vindicated that your idea is right when you make money in the market. It feels great, not even good. It feels amazing. Why? Because it's not just about the money. In fact, it's not, it's about the money.
Starting point is 00:28:08 money, of course, that keeps scores, but it's about being right. And that feeling of being right and having the market prove you right, vindicated, validated, whatever word you want. It is tremendously intoxicated. Remember, the emotions, I said earlier. The emotions are driving our decisions. People can fight the market, and I did that early in my career too, to no avail, by the way. It's a losing trade. I don't recommend people do it. But people do it all the time. Fight the market to prove themselves right, because they rather prove themselves right to make money. Taking small losses is an easy way to avoid that track. And having to stop before I enter, knowing how much I'm going to risk before I enter,
Starting point is 00:28:48 treating it like a business, enter here, exit here, risk this much, so on and so forth. Guess what? All of that helps me remove the emotions from the decision-making process. I'm still going to have a lot of losing trades, and that's okay if my losses are small, my winners are bigger than my losses. A lot of people get caught up with the number of wins versus number of losses. Oh, I need to be up a certain amount. It doesn't even matter.
Starting point is 00:29:14 Providing. What matters is the size of the win compared to the size of the loss. Why? Just math. Imagine you have two traders. Trader A, lose 10 trades, loses nine trades in a row. Wins on the 10th trade. Trader B wins nine in a row, loses the 10th one.
Starting point is 00:29:33 One has a 90% win rate. one has 90% losing rate. Which one would you rather give your money to? Of course, the guy who wins 90% of the time. Not necessarily. Why? Because the guy that lost nine in a row, if they lost one nine times or minus nine, the 10th trade, they win 10, net, net, they're up one. You've heard me say this before. And the other one that won 90% time, only one one each time. The 10th trade, they lost 10, net, net, they're down one. Even though they were right, 90% of the time. It's not about being right or wrong, folks. It's about making money. It's about making money. It's being disciplined. But it's about really controlling, protecting yourself from some of the
Starting point is 00:30:11 dark side or the, I guess, the dangerous side that resides in all of us. You know, we have a good, bad, smart, you know, smart, dumb, however you want to separate it, angel, devil, whatever words you want to use, all of us have a good smart side to us and then a side that could be destructive if it's not controlled. That's the part. And in my book, I call it Schmelf. So it's not about a character or about a person. It's a Schmelf. It's like a, it's like a, Tasmanian devil, there's cartoons in the book, that runs around the side of my brain that causes me to make emotional decisions, and usually they're destructive decisions. If it's unchecked, and that's where the discipline comes in.
Starting point is 00:30:47 So before I buy a stock, I ask myself three questions. Where am I going to enter? Where am I going to exit? And how much do I risk it from loan? Now, all of a sudden, I've distanced myself from the stock or from the market or from that investment or whatever the case may be. because frankly it's not about that investment or that market or that trade it's about doing that trade a thousand times or a million times i like to say a million because it's easy to illustrate that point if i do you know if i eat a cookie
Starting point is 00:31:17 a million every single day for the million years is that good or bad man probably in bad for me not a good thing all right i'm not going to do it that helps make the decision very easy i know i still eat cookies I'm human, but again, at least for my brain to understand. When I exaggerate something, it's easier to see it. And when I take myself out of the equation, it's easier to see it. What would I tell someone else, not Adam, Axe or Allen or whatever? It becomes much easier. All right, up next, we've got a lot more to cover.
Starting point is 00:31:51 I'll go through some breakouts for today. This is the one and only Investors Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, red, red. Ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culpa.
Starting point is 00:32:35 And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience on any device you want, all for free. So a few things here. You are in a situation where the NASDAQ 100 is leading. It broke out, heading new all-time high. I want to listen to the market.
Starting point is 00:33:00 the way that I listen to markets is I look for themes. That's really powerful. I look for breakouts. I look at price action. I look at volume. I want to see what's actually happening in the market. I zoom out. I look at weekly charts, yearly charts, quarterly charts, monthly charts, daily charts.
Starting point is 00:33:18 I try not to go intraday because it's just mainly noise, frankly, that most of it doesn't even matter. And I look for breakouts. And again, the breakout, the reason why breakout's important is because there's a catalyst. Something has changed. if that stock is going to double, it has to break out first. I explained it earlier. So, okay, let's go through. I woke up today.
Starting point is 00:33:36 Markets, you know, I woke up early, but the market, ding, ding, ding, the 930 Eastern bell goes off. I want to see what's breaking out instantly in real time. I built market terminal. I used to scan thousands stocks and missed breakouts. Now, thanks to technology, we've got to use it as a tool. Why not? It just gives it to me.
Starting point is 00:33:54 It gives me breakouts. And I saw Navidia, NVDA, breaking out right at the open, right around the open. a few minutes of the end up right after the open. QQQQ broke out right around the open. AMD broke out right around the open. Now, some of these, AMD, Navidia pulled back and closed below their breakout points. So on Mark a Terminal, we have all breakout section. There's a top breakout section.
Starting point is 00:34:17 There's a high volume breakout section. And there's a below breakout point section. Palantir actually was on the list also. It broke out. And then by the close, it closed below its breakout point. In fact, it closed down and it negated the breakout or just the breakout wasn't confirmed because it didn't close above it. So we take those stocks off of the breakouts page. There's 26 stocks that closed below the pivot point or the breakout point.
Starting point is 00:34:43 And then there's high volume breakouts. Some of them that worked. And there's top breakouts. You can see those also. Those are ones that are closer to all-time highs or 52-week highs because you can have mid-level breakouts, 52-week-high breakout, so on and so forth. T-E-R, large-cap stock. broke out today on volume V-I-A-V broke out today on volume ENTG broke out today semiconductor stock ARW was a nice breakout today 23733 closed at 241-81
Starting point is 00:35:20 SMTC broke out today and again these are not buy-and-sell recommendations let me be very very clear these are just stocks breaking out strong days you see 20, 30, 40, 50 breakouts. Quiet days where the market's down a lot, you might get four or five breakouts or no breakouts. Again, it all depends on what the market gives us. The market giveth and the market taketh, right? So whatever the market gives us, I'm going to run with.
Starting point is 00:35:45 Really, that's simple. I'm not going deeper than that. Keep it as simple as possible. Why? Because, you know, the military says, kiss, keep it simple. You know what the last S is for. I always like to keep it simple because there's a simple. There's a certain level of genius when it comes to simplicity.
Starting point is 00:36:04 And Einstein, I think, had a great quote as if you can't explain it to the fifth grader, you don't know it, or something along those lines. I'm going to mess up the quote. But elegance and simplicity. Clarity with simplicity. Somebody comes to me with a complicated whatever strategy or whatever they're saying. I'm just, it's not for me. Now, it doesn't mean it can't work. I'm sure it can.
Starting point is 00:36:25 It's just it's not for me. I prefer simple whenever possible. CLS and the greatest minds in history are able to simplify things to the least common denominator. Elon Musk, love them or hate him, richest man alive today, if not ever, literally launches SpaceX. The day he rings the IPO bell,
Starting point is 00:36:45 one of the biggest IPOs ever in history. Now, whether it works or not it's irrelevant. Literally says we're taking the fiction out of science fiction. Wow. SPCX is a ticker there. And again, by the way, that was a breakout today also. The recent high was one, let's see, 158, 13, and you close at 158.95. Good action there.
Starting point is 00:37:10 Mid-level breakout. And that IPOed around 150. Went down to 104 and then bounced back, built the little handle. You almost have a head and shoulders bottom forming here for SpaceX. But again, breakout nonetheless. we're taking the fiction out of science fiction. A five-year-old can understand that. A 15-year-old can understand that.
Starting point is 00:37:31 A child can, right? Simplicity and genius. It's just, to me, the simpler things are, the better. So again, these are not buying cell recommendations. These are just stocks breaking out. It's how the market speaks to me. And how this market speaks to all of us. The only questions are you listening, right?
Starting point is 00:37:47 So CLS, another breakout today. MXL, mid-level breakout there. IMOS, gap up, semiconductor, broke out there. M-T-R-N, big breakout there. SEI, mid-level breakout there, energy oil and gas stock. A-V-T, A-V-T, Avnet, broke out a few sessions. About a week and a half ago, two weeks ago, broke out again now.
Starting point is 00:38:11 Built the little base and broke out again. ELPC, another breakout there. P-I, that's a buyout, forget that one. TNK, tankers are doing very well. I remember back in 2007, tankers were doing well. Solar stocks are doing well. stocks are doing well and then 08 came so whenever I see those three areas the solar stocks doing well or tankers or I have like you know not PTSD but some some memories of what
Starting point is 00:38:35 happened right before 08 I'm not saying that's going to happen now I'm just it's just something that I linked to because I remember 2007 very clearly a DC ECO another breakout and NNBR now we're going to smaller cap stocks those are made caps now are first it was large then it was made now it's smaller cap and NNBR A Z T T T T T O healthcare stock, big volume today on that breakout. MTW, big gap up a few months ago, built a little base broke out, another base broke out. MTW, NAT breakout there.
Starting point is 00:39:11 Another tanker, by the way. Again, that's how I say the market's big to me, listen to themes, look for sectors, okay, so far we've got several tankers broke out. Semiconductors right at the open, AMD broke out, NVIDIA broke out, QQQ, again, things, move. There's a lot more breakouts. You can go to MarketTermal.com if you want to get them, but we're almost out of time, so I just want to wrap up here in the next minute or so, and just put pieces together. Now, we're going to bowl markets, surprise as and bull markets, not always, but tend to
Starting point is 00:39:41 happen to the upside. We have earnings season coming up in the next few weeks. I'm going to take my time. If this breakout and the QQQQQQA fails, we roll over, hey, I'll get a lot more defensive very, very quickly. If the S&P 500 breaks out, the QQQQQ keeps running and breaks out, the other indices act well, lift higher. Great. I'm ready for a strong Q4. That's what you're being prepared. Right? Ben Franklin had a great line.
Starting point is 00:40:05 Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Prepare. It's either going to go up down or sideways. There's a simplicity for you. Any stock, any market, up down or sideways. I believe that's all the time we have. As always, this was a pleasure. Thank you, everybody, for being here.
Starting point is 00:40:19 Have a great weekend. This is the one and only. investors edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary CultBomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.