Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - What Did We Say Friday?

Episode Date: March 27, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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glad you hear ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it's uh march 27th 2003. Hope you had a great weekend. I was under the weather all weekend. Friday night, though, I had a charity event. The Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida celebrate the children. But I've been croaking all weekend. That was my weekend. I feel much better. What can I tell you? It's less of a cold and flu edition of Investor's Edge. We'll try to get through it. Let's start with the most emails I received this weekend thanking me for the big bet on Connecticut and Miami. We told you we really like Miami

and we loved Connecticut. We thought they were heads and shoulders above Gonzaga and what they went by 30. And as you know through the years, I think we've lost four Super Bowls since 2000. I think when we did the playoffs in football, 75, 80%. We've given you NCAA finals, football, basketball.

But we've really done nothing in a bit. But I just saw these couple of games and we gave it to you on Friday. Again, gambling is not for everybody. And we ask you to only gamble what you can afford. but we really love those two games, especially the Connecticut. We shall have Final Four at the end of this week. One game has me very much perked up.

I think I got a big one for you coming this week. We'll let you know. Okay. The other part of Friday, we simply said to you that we thought things were changing. We said to you on Friday something we noticed on Friday. It was not happenstance. It was something we noticed on Friday. We thought the worst areas of the market that have been just bludgeoned in recent weeks.

We thought on Friday they quietly, subtly, were putting in. in lows, L-O-W-S. And then we use the words for now. Does not mean they are the lows. But we thought lows were put in. What areas? Financials that have been crushed. What areas?

Energy, which has been crushed. Rails truckers, industrials, insurance, commodities, airlines, Dow types, crushed. Crushed. On the other end, we thought that some of the stronger areas were stalling out, namely the tech slash big tech slash semiconductors. and it wasn't what we'd call one of our major league calls, but it was a subtle call. We thought the complexion was changing.

We've already got emails asking what exactly did you see? To explain it, first off, we thought the areas that were bombed out had put in some time at the lows. Retesting. Retesting. And then we noticed on Friday quietly. In the market, there is something called tails.

It leaves a tail. It means a stock during the day was at 100, closed at 104. And we noticed it for all these areas. So just letting you know today, confirm what we said Friday. We have no clue about tomorrow, but there is a little move of foot here. little changing and complexion. And there may be a little rhyme and reason. Let's talk to financials.

Somebody bought Silicon Valley Bank for a song and a dance. A dance and a song. First Citizens Bank bought them very cheaply. Ended up with a lot of deposits. And I think that gave hope. So the financials had a good day. and whatever they brought along with them had a good day.

On the other end, the areas we told you, we thought there was stalling. They had a bad day, and that's the story. How long it lasts, how far it goes, I don't know, I have yet to scan, but a little change afoot. And maybe not so little. So, very simply, today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment Day. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment dash models.com. You ready? What was going on for a bit? Well, if the Dow is up 194, the NASDAQ would be up 400. If the Dow was down 200, the NASDAQ would still be up 100. Well, today the Dow is up 194. NASDAQ down 55. the Dow was up 194 NASDAQ 100 down 93

Dow was up 194 semiconductor index down 37 there you go what we saw Friday subtly made itself a little more well known today that said take a pen and a sheet of paper and go to midnight on a clock and just take a line down to the bottom. Six. That's what a lot of these names look like. Now, little next to it, go from six straight up 15% of the way, let's call it. That's all that happened here.

with the bombed out areas. Not so sure I can go further than that, but we'll review it tonight. And we do have a thought process. We are a thinking person. What if, just what if, first cough, second cough,

what if there is no more banking issues? One has to think these banks are going to go higher, right? Has to think, maybe. We'll keep you prized. We'll look at it tonight. It is somewhat of a guessing game, though. Leave no doubt. You never know where it's going to come from next. Or maybe it's over. Our worry, the central bank that has lost a trillion bucks on whatever they have bought with other people's money, namely conjured up money. are backstopping depositors with a clear lack of capital, which means they're in hope and prayer mode that it doesn't continue.

You know, fake it till you make it, say it so others believe it. We'll see. We're just letting you know what we said on Friday. Got a little more confirmation today. To what extent? Not sure just yet. But wow. we're actually a little bit proud of ourselves.

This was a very subtle move on Friday. We're always looking for an edge. The things that people don't see it, even if they saw it, they wouldn't know what to do with it. We probably also told you Friday, we're not sure what to do. Why? Straight down. Up next. Much more.

This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah,

you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy.

and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen, and protein shaking chocolate. With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints, and a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtene.com and get started.

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It doesn't get better than this. Now, what about the big picture? Well, if you ask me to talk, the big picture, all these bombed out areas that bounced to them. overall look like crap and normal circumstance there is sell on any rally up general sense that's the big picture one would suggest a few things have to change but we do know that outlier events like what just happened with banks if they're resolved to the positive.

Oh, you can go straight up, straight down. We've seen it before. But as a norm, they look like crap. And as they rally up into resistance, their cells. Best way I can put it. As far as these other areas that we thought were going to stall, they did. Some of the bigger tech down today. The semis down today.

So a little change afoot And may I repeat again To what extent We just want to get trends right Remember when we called bare markets At the highs for the growth stocks We didn't call bare markets We said they had topped

And we said they're going into downtrends And as more and more names joined that ugly We knew something was up and of course it turned into a brutal bear market which still going on right now for a lot of names

we'll keep your prized and leave no doubt we'll be watching these areas closely I do want to mention oil prices up $3.77 cents today that's a huge move more than 5%

so not good at the pump good for oil today, which have been part of the ugly. With the financials, ground zero bank gets taken out, gets bought out. The thought process, that's good news. Banks get a reprieve, but we're really unclear. If I had a guess, and it's just a guess, this ain't over with. I hope that guess is wrong. The last thing we need is a banking crisis while the country has massive debt, massive deficits, and a Marxist in the right White House that wants to make it worse. Yes, Marxist control freak that wants a budget of $6.8 trillion, up from 4.4 the year before COVID.

Insanity rules. Defense stocks. Defensive. we mentioned on Friday Hershey's up three today Novo Nordisk up to Chlorox Monster beverage Mondalise All green

The Coca-Cola of Mexico Up two Money flows Into defensive In the Dow today It looks like Walmart wants to turn up. McDonald's

wants to turn up. IBM. So the market's going into this lower beta defense. So again the Dow up 194, the SMP6, NASDAQ down 55, NASDAQ 100, down 93,

just a major change from what we've been seeing the last few weeks. The SOX was down. Many more new lows than new highs on the NASDAQ. about even on the New York. But when I look at the New Yearly High list, ain't much.

As we told you, defensive. Mondalese food. Hershey's, food. Dark restaurants, we'll give that one. Regeneron, drug news. Elf beauty, cosmetics. Novo Nordisk, drugs. And a couple others.

Green brick partners. housing Motorola Solutions so a few on the New York Stock Exchange but that's it on the NASDAQ I'm looking

I can pretty much have nothing on the NASDAQ today how's that and remember bull markets in stocks are made of leadership leadership if there isn't any leadership.

Very tough to have bull markets. Yield spiked up today. There was a flight to quality with the bank issues. Maybe the bank issues result. Maybe. Yields go back up. Ten years at 3.528.

Up. A big 148 today. That's a huge move in one day. Crazy moves in the bond markets, ladies and gentlemen. Brought to you, Why, you know who. Up next, lots of news.

Stay tuned. This is the one only investors end. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues, we should. should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably, identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen, and protein shaking chocolate.

With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails and joints and a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtene's.com and get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Success starts with your drive.

An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to.

All right. Lots of news to cover. Do you know the city of Sacramento is trying to claim the right to retroactively tax former residents? What is going on out there? Where do these people get these ideas? Think about that. You left seven years ago, Sacramento. Unbelievable. You know, unfortunately, we have to talk about Jay Powell. just so you know bets now showing four rate cuts by the end of this year. We don't really watch this stuff, but it went from no rate cuts to four. That's what a banking problem will potentially do.

I think the bigger problem is if the economy loses the consumer. As I have stated, major increase. in credit card usage, records. Savings rates have plunged. You tell me what the logic is. Something that wasn't talked about last week. By anybody. U.S. durable goods went from 11.2 to 2.2 in February from December.

That is a huge drop. And again, we think there could be some economic issues going forward. Commercial real estate. When you have a chance, go look at VNO, go look at SLG, and look at the crash of office real estate investment trusts. There is a lot of debt coming due in the next three to five years. From lower rates to higher rates. Now, you tell me what that could mean. the next shoe to drop

we'll see but we're pretty good at putting one plus one together we're quite logical here ladies and gentlemen Joe Biden what did we say 6.8 trillion dollar

budget it's criminal but what I haven't mentioned is a new minimum tax on unrealized capital gains I want you to think about that you owe a house during the year it went from 700,000 to 770 you may have to pay taxes on that the 70 grand or any asset that you didn't sell a stock a bond ladies a gentleman they're insane

and what if the next year it goes down they're insane they're economically illiterate don't have an understanding of economics. They're just control freaks. You know what that can potentially do to the real estate market? What if you're not liquid? It's ludicry. They want to quadruple the tax on stock buybacks and higher Medicare taxes on people making over $400,000.

That's their magic number. If you make over $400,000, up yours. Screw you. We're going to penalize you for being financially successful. Again, they're insane. It's ludicry. They're economically illiterate because most of them have been politicians their whole life and are just control freaks. The good news? None of this is happening right now. Republican cards have the house. Thank God that happened.

I mentioned the central bank. They're sitting on $1.2 trillion in losses on the bonds they bought with conjured up money. Who eats those? Speaking of lunacy. Speaking of lunacy. How the hell we get here? It's like phantom numbers.

Any number. Condred up. How they have any credibility is beyond me. I can't believe some of the things I even have to cover. The nonsensical. The stupid. The imbecilic. The moronic.

They tell us, everything's fine. Then why did the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Swiss National Bank, get together for a joint liquidity operation? Ladies and gentlemen,

I don't think it's a reach to say we are being chieft by a bunch of con artists that tell you they're in control and have absolutely no control. The banks, speaking if everything's okay,

why have the U.S. banks have borrowed a combined 165 billion from the backstop entities that the Fed put out? far exceeding the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Ladies and gentlemen, none of this I am making up. I tell you this, not to depress you. I tell you this to make sure you know what the hell's going on.

Last time inflation was this high. 1,600 banks failed. 70s and 80s. Just let you know. just going through my notes and this is from the people that said inflation is not a problem is transitory

interest rates will not rise until 2024 and we need a recession now to lower the inflation they never saw coming we wish we were making these things up none of this is opinion all fact up next

what else I'm Gary this is the one all the investors said. I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not

accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah you know I just have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut

you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from

CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen, and protein shaking chocolate. With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints, and a smooth, ready-to-drink, shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital proteins.

Stay vital. Visit VitalProtene's.com and get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. We're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge.

With Gary Culpa. Uh, by the way, Connecticut is playing Miami, correct? That's what I think is, uh, one game. in the final four. And the other game is San Diego State FAU? Where did they come from? Either San Diego State or FAU were going to be in the final game. Wow.

Yukon is a five and a half point favorite on Miami. That's the game that has my interest. That's the game that has my interest. Yukon looks heads and tails above everybody. but it's also who's hot. San Diego State is minus 2 on FAU. I have no feel for that game. As of yet.

Over under in Miami, Connecticut is 150. We'll let you know at the end of the week. What else is on my mind? Well, just by way of fact, remember, they're telling us everything's okay. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were the second and third largest failures. You know what number one was, right?

Washington Mutual in 08, $434 billion. Silicon Valley Bank, $209 billion, Signature Bank 110, 1984 Continental Illinois 107, 1988, First Republic, $84 billion. Nice. why are we worried last year credit swiss passed all the stress tests from our federal reserve what do we tell you about these stress tests they're fake what are banks they're bookies so there is good as the deposits if they lose all the deposits throughout a business

why did people take their money out fear and emotion these stress tests do not account for people they're stupid stress tests by stupid people i want to repeat something i said last week the top seven companies excuse me in the dazdac 100 are 50s percent of the NASDAQ 100. Those same seven make up 24% of the S&P. That's insane influence. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Facebook. These indices have not learned any lessons.

That's all I can tell you. Seven stocks. What if those seven stocks crash? out, which they have, by the way. And they had not a great day today. We'll see. So, again, our little change of complexion theme on Friday showed itself today. Don't know if it lasts. All I know is it showed itself. Dow types. They even moved IBM, a comatose stock. The thought process is maybe just maybe This bank thing could be over

My worry When you have a chance, go look at the KRE And see how high it was today on the open And see where it finished It got distributed today from a hot open That's the regional banks If there are going to be problems It'll be the regional bank.

I promise. Our hope is this goes away. But you know it has not gone away? The distortions J-PAL created to get us to the point where on TV we're talking about

banks getting in trouble because they bought government bonds. How can you get in trouble with that? well when government bonds 10 year yields at the low were paying 6 tenths of 1% because they were rigged and manipulated

that's how you get in trouble just like the extreme Austria bond 100 years at 8 tenths of a percent and was sold out now down 60% have a great evening drive carefully I'm trying to get better

and when you get home to like we do make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children, drink some tea, and have a great evening. Really appreciate you joining us. TV tomorrow, not sure just yet. Until tomorrow's same time radio. Good night, all. Take care. Bye-bye.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. day the headlines shift, but the uncertainty never seems to fade. From rising geopolitical tensions to record U.S. debt and ongoing debates about inflation and money printing, Americans are watching economic forces that feel far beyond their control, and for many, that instability is showing up in retirement accounts, personal savings, and long-term financial plans. More people are taking a closer look at options that don't depend on Wall Street. Physical gold and silver have been used

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and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.

U.S.edu.