Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - What Red Wave?

Episode Date: November 9, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, November 9th, 2022. And do you ever have one of those days where you kind of can't win? where what's the cliche, the best laid plans of mice and men. So I have to fly to London tomorrow for Friday to be there Friday. And fortunately, people that I'm meeting with are good Saturday now. We're getting a tropical storm slash hurricane in Orlando here.

And they cancel the flights because you can't fly in. so it looks like Miami is staying open we think we're not sure but I'm now booked on Miami to London tomorrow night at 930 now I'm in Orlando and the good it's a 930 p.m. flight so I'm going to leave my office tomorrow at 2 and head on down and I think most of the crap would be passed I was thinking about just going down there now? The problem with leaving now is what if Miami gets canceled? Then I'm down there.

Then again, I can leave from Miami Friday, get this Saturday. That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Hmm. I got to think this over. Anyway, thanks for being here. This is Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kulp.

I'm your host. And we received numerous amounts of emails from all you last night. We did a half-the-show dissertation. on the crypto that has been destroyed even further. Without getting too into it, one of the crypto, it's called FTX. And I got to be honest with you, I don't even know what the hell they are. I don't even know what they are.

I know crypto, but I don't even know what the hell they are. Matter of fact, I should just say, what is FTX? It's a cryptocurrency exchange. What does the FTX do? Exchange cryptocurrencies. Anyway, they're going night night, I think, and they're going to be saved by something called Binance, and now Binance is backed away.

So I'm just going with, you know I might as well give you the prices of them Ethereum price as I speak is down to 1136 the high was 4644 November and it was just

1982 in August it's 1136 Bitcoin and by the way these are the ones that have stood tall is down to 16,034. It was, let me go back a month. It was 21-3 November 5th. It's 16,000 now.

And of course, it is down from the high of 64,000. Micro Strategy down another 45 bucks today to 167. Coinbase down five bucks to 46. and a bunch of these smaller ones just getting, you know, bloodied up. And there's been, is the market having a, you know, bad clothes yesterday? Well, we're still up yesterday. But a bad day to day because of this, my answer is, yeah, could be. I don't know.

What I care about most is we've been warning you for three years. And during that warning, just so you know, know these things rallied up. No argument. They rallied up. And then they dropped. And then they rallied up again to the high of November 21. We don't argue those points. And we always say to you, we don't know what happens in the near term. We just know what's going to happen in the long run. And you ask, how do you know, Gary, what's going to happen in the long run? It's because all the other bubbles have popped brutally, and this was a bubble. And really, the definition of a bubble is buying an entity or an

asset, let's call it an asset minus the E&T, how's that, at any price, because you think somebody's going to pay higher. And I had told you, there was a game stop story here, GameStop had gone from This was when it went nuts It was already up It had gone from like I'm getting the number right So I can really explain it to you pretty darn well

And it really explains bubbles GameStop had gone from And this was in February of January of January of 21? The stock insanely on nothing. There was nothing. There was no news. There was no news. It was four bucks and it rallied up to 20, which was all already crazy. And if somebody would have asked me about buying GameStop at 20, I would have laughed at them because it just came from four bucks. And the company was losing money, hand over fist. There was all kinds of worries about

it and it went from 20 to 38 on January 13th 21 on January 22nd 2021 it opened at 42 hit a high as 76 closed at 65 the next day went up to a hundred and fifty-nine dollars closed at 76 bucks so if you bought it wrong you're losing your ass the next day it traded between 150 and 80 but closed at 147 and then the next day it opened up like at 250 went to 380 closed at 347 the next day it hit 483 closed at 193 the low was 112 483 to 1112 the next day was all over the map uh 322 down to 212 and And then it got trashed down to 38 and then rallied back up to 348 a few weeks later. I got a call from a lady.

And my guess was she was in the 70s. I didn't ask her age. I believe the stock was 300, maybe 310 at the time. And it was June 20, January 27. Shouldn't I buy some? I said, do you know where the stock was yesterday? kind of i said well the low is 80 you're asking me to buy something at 300 do you think there is risk she asked back what if it goes to a thousand i then asked do you know what their earnings and sales are no do you know

they're losing a ton of money and there was been talk about bankruptcy maybe not saying they're gone she then asked again what if it goes to a thousand I said, ma'am, whatever you do, just have stops in place. And I left it at that. That's the definition of a bubble. And we've seen it in so many things in so many areas. And they're destructive. And you end up with a lot of characters, a lot of players that are become famous as all hell,

become billionaires overnight, insanity rules. But when all is said and done, hell breaks loose. Because you must remember the one fundamental point of the market. Eventually everything, eventually is the word, though, is going to go back to where they should be. Look what's happening even with the Fed printing to $9 trillion. They created all that, by the way. You never know which entity. And remember, I came up with this little ditty on this show.

Imagine if your dog took a crap and somebody walks over and says I'll pay five bucks for it. Sure, give me the five bucks. Somebody walks over that person, I'll pay you $20. Oh, sure. Up next, we'll finish that story. We'll put a bow tie on this and move on. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio. show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

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known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin. You and swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

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programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So we did this little made-up story for you guys to explain bubbles. So the same dog crap, somebody pays the $5 guy, 20. Oh, sure, I'll take it. And then somebody with 50 bucks walks over to the $20 guy and says, well, he's seeing what's going on.

I'll pay you $50 for that dog crap. Sure. Guy walks over and sees what's going on. you a hundred bucks for that dog crap. Really? Sure, take it. Next guy walks up. What's going on with that dog crap? Well, people want to keep paying up. I'll pay you a thousand for it. Of course, you take it. Next guy walks up, hmm, something's going on here. Turns out he's an investment banker. We're going to put it in the dog crap SPAC and I'm going to make billions. I'll pay you 10 grand for it. That's the bubble. It could be dog crap. It can be a leaf. It used to be tulip bulbs.

I urge every one of you to read up about the tulip bulbs. It's right now the NFTs, which are down like 90-some-odd percent in transactions. Somebody paid two and a half million bucks for an NFT I was reading and try to put up for sale and couldn't get $250. I mentioned to you. Somebody bought an invisible sculpture for 18 grand. Back in 2007, in the real estate, people were lining up in empty lots where there were trailers to put down money on a condo that may or may not be built in Miami, signing the contract at whatever price, putting it up for sale immediately, and selling it for a hundred grand higher.

You know what happened there. But of course, we have bubble number two in real estate because this jackass took rates down to zero, putting mortgage rates at two and some odd percent. Ridiculous move. And you know what's happening now. What are we over 7 percent? So we've got a lot of emails from you guys and you are welcome. And we mean that sincerely.

We're not patting ourselves on the back. We're just saying we're really happy if you avoided this stuff. I just read a thing. I don't know if it was real or not that Tom Brady put a ton of his money in this FTX. It's now worthless. I've told you, who's the quarterback for Jacksonville? He put all his money in Bitcoin, his salary.

Trevor Lawrence. I tried to get a hold of him. Nobody would answer my call. And that was like a year ago. I was going to call. Dude, what are you doing? Nobody answered my call. I tried to get to Zanjit.

Nothing. I should have gone to one of the practices, but you know what, if they don't want to take a phone call from a handsome and buff Fox News business contributor, what can you do? We need you to remember this stuff. Never forget this, because you have a bunch of goblins, and I use that in the most pejorative way, because I can't use another word on radio. Who are these goblins? A bunch of hedge funds got into it on the late side. but caught the last leg up, but never sold. Now they're in a death drop and are getting destroyed.

All the way down, they paraded in front of you on Twitter, on Instagram, at these conventions. And it was basically, do you know who I am? If I'm telling you, you got to believe it. And your last Miami convention sold out, even though the price was already down 50, 60%. It's sold out. Believers. You know who those believers were?

The people that were down 50, 60% wanting to hear that everything was going to be A-OK. From the people that were touting them in the first place, we want you to remember this. We don't know where this ends. We don't know how far it goes. All I know, it's worsening by the day. and now we're reading you can read about this FTX guy he was worth 16 billion yesterday and now like

I still like to be worth that much but he could can't sell so you can say he's worth 900 million but only if you can sell it you ain't going to be able to sell it to anybody and we warned you about another thing with these coins we really thought especially these bitcoins ethereums that these that a hold up best, that they were really being held by a select few people that owned a crap load of it and they can never sell. What looks like it's now being forced. Now, I'm warning you. We'll have more bubbles going forward. Not now, though. But I'm warning you, just this week. I don't know how it happens, but HUDI goes from 20 to 192 in two days. The next day, down 91%, down to 16. It's now 8. HUDI. It's Wadi International, a Chinese manufacturer of steel.

I don't understand. By the way, the SEC is pretty much stopping all these Chinese traded stocks here because a bunch of have done this. And if you're the last one in, you're destroyed. So screw the stock market for a second. I'm talking bubbles here. It will happen again. Remember this. Hey, if you're the first one in on a bubble, change your life. I completely, completely state that for the record. I know that, we know that. Don't be the last one in. Don't be the last one in. And if you are, You better be trading because these big machas now that have been touting you, I ain't seen them too much anymore. They're still smiling. They're still yapping, but a lot less.

And you can tell with a lot less confidence. And you can also tell they're going to the bathroom 12 times a day. And I say, and I mean this, I have no joy in state in any of this. I don't want anybody to lose money, especially big money. But when conditions deem it, I must yap louder. And we hope you've been listening. Markets have no bias when bubbles pop. And we were on it years ago.

By the way, there was a snook out two days ago saying Bitcoin's going to 100,000 within a year. Like to kick them with a son? Well, the other side, by the way. Up next, quickly on the election, then the markets. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges world, The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole. process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen

apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to

yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

Hawking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So, I thought there was a chance for Red Wave and I have stated that pretty emphatically to you guys. I did say, though, but I'm worried about one thing and one thing only. The quality of the candidates on the Republican side. sucked. I think there would have been red wave if we had a bunch of Reaganites. I do believe we'd had a red wave if you didn't have all these morons out there, basically campaigning on election. Think about this.

They're campaigning on elections are fraudulent. You get that? How do you campaign, you're running on an election, you're saying the elections are fraudulent. Think about that. I didn't think about that until after. So the Republicans are going to get the House. The Senate's touch and go. It may end up 50-50.

They got the Georgia runoff. And Herschel Walker may win because it's very close, and I believe they lose one person. It's just between them too. And I think most of those, I think most of those votes go towards Herschel Walker. But people can change their minds. We'll see. I think we may end up 50-50 in the Senate, which means a tie.

is a Democrat. It could be, I don't think it's going to be 5149 Democrats. It's either going to be 50, 50, or 5149 Republican. But they get the House, and that does a lot. It takes all the committee chairmanship away from the Democrats. No more as Bernie Sanders running the budget committee, which is like the, that's like me doing brain surgery on you. Florida, though, absolutely destructuring.

destroyed the Democrats. Destroyed them. If the Republicans don't learn a lesson on that, then they're stupid. And frankly, I think the best thing to happen to the Republicans is they didn't have a red wave. You know why? You know when any party has a big wave, they become omnipot. Nothing can ever go wrong. And then they get killed in the next election.

Just remember, the big election, it's 24. It's the presidency. And a lot more Senate seats are up for the Dems. Maybe this will teach them a damn good lesson. Get rid of these morons. They're running in the election saying elections are fraudulent. Interesting, huh? So it looks like we'll have some good gridlock.

My worry is executive orders. It used to be tough to do executive orders. Now it seems to be pretty easy. So we'll see. Could that affected the market today? Could be. You know, the expectations were a red wave, but you know what affected the market today. The dollar was strong and yields went up.

Now, we're being told that tomorrow, the most important inflation number in history is coming out tomorrow. Another most important. Let me just state, I don't know what it's going to be. I don't know how the market's going to react. All I know is the market was terrible today. and all I know is this rally up this rally up has been led by the Dow

I've been telling you that every day and that's not good we've been telling you that every day and as soon as the Dow has a bad day like today guess what they did everywhere else just about yeah splat so bad day anyway you cut it

market rap brought you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohraback one of the great market timers No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market as proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dowdown 646 near the low of the day, I believe.

S&P 79, NASDAQ 263, NASDAQ 161, NASDAQ-708. Transports 342. Advanced declines were terrible. Up down volume was terrible. Hey, Facebook was up five bucks because they're firing 11,000 people. That was up today. but pretty much beat red today. And of course, the things that have been weak got weaker.

That's all I can tell you. As we have told you, we're very careful what we tell you here, what we're doing. We've played it very, very close to the vest, very low beta. And as you know, we don't stand around when bear market rallies top, which could be today. But no matter what, the area. areas of the market that are bad, just worsened today. Remember, it's been the Dow by far. Go look at a chart of the Dow, look where it is, the move it just had, and now go look at the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and tell me. That's what we mean. Disney down 13 today on earnings. They lost $1.5 billion in their division of

streaming, even though, listen to these numbers. They now have 164 million. Disney plus people, up 39%. Parks and products are up 34%. But they lost $1.5 billion doing all that. That had better change. That didn't help. Oils. What have we been saying in the last few days?

They're going up the oil stocks, but oil prices have been going down. We're not going up. And oil stocks extended. Well, they got cheese today. We thought that was going to happen. They just got them good today. There's one, and by the way, in bull markets, there's a stock I would have probably owned coming into today in oils. I did not own it.

Symbol G-TLS. They bought another company. That's all. They announced the buying of another company. Closed down $85 to $154 down 35%. closed yesterday at a new high 239 open today at 205. I could have owned that. You just never know.

And most other oil stocks younged. Pretty good. So there was really no place to hide today. We talked about gold emerging yesterday up the little right side, but dollar was stronger today. Gold pulled back today. We'll revisit. We have not bought a share of it.

But just overall, puke. Bluh. Yuck. And New Yearly lows picked up today. I've got 627 new yearly lows today. New yearly highs with the big contraction. And by the way, advanced declines 8 up 33 down, 800 up 3,300 down on the New York, 10 up 30,000 up 3300 down on the NASDAQ.

Yeah, splat. and that's our news of the day. Yuck. And I've yet to scan. I can't wait. It's going to look like the south end of a northbound jackass. And that's being kind. And by the way, I got a lot of questions on Disney today.

We don't own it. We haven't owned it. It's been a bear market stock and got deeper into the bear today. I would suggest that I'm always careful with this. This new CEO, We'll see. Not so sure he's long-lasting. Between what happened with DeSantis, the stock price, the past president was popular,

Eiger didn't like him too much, we'll see. Up next, I think I heard my music, did I? I can't tell. Guess not. It sounded like I did. Guess I didn't. So I got a couple other seconds. they're also now getting after

even more. You remember AMC? Remember Bedbath and Beyond? Just so you know, Bed Bath and Beyond was $30 mid-August. It's $354 now. The short-squee stuff. We're just letting you know

they ain't playing footsie here, kids. They're not playing footsie and we need you to remember it. Good news was the oil prices were down three and change today. That helps us. at the pump. And believe me, we'll take anything like that as we move forward. There's my music. Up next. Uh, yeah. Oh, yeah, this, that and the other thing or whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one

only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the guesters' edge. With Gary Culpa. Uh, You know, every now and then we have an outlier event. Just going to let you know, there's a Matthew Jacobson. He's a director at a company called Datadog. D-D-O-G. I'm showing he just bought 719,000 shares of the stock for 50 million bucks.

That's an insider buy, but he already owns $13 million. So I'm going to have to look up his bio, Matthew Jacobson. There hasn't been anything like that. And by the way, Datadog is in a big bear market. And I'm just reading as I go, the CEO of this FTX now, they're saying his net worth now is negative 200 million down from 16 billion in a day. Bubbles. Bubbles.

Bubbles. And as I scan, just so you know what I do, I have my Twitter feat set up where things I want to see from certain areas, certain people, come to me. And that's what we do. and of course we get rid of the ass clowns. We block them pretty quickly. Like I'm seeing already today, the Fed worried about higher rates,

so we're hearing talk all of a sudden. I'm watching Mark Zuckerberg's video to the Zlaid-off workers 11,000. These are the things that get pushed to me. I'm also seeing of President Trump being his usual, not magnanimous self going after Ron DeSantis. Again, because he's scared crappless over Ron DeSantis. We're going to leave Trump alone at this point.

He's going to announce the running. We'll let you all decide. But a lot of crap happened last night that was not good for him. and I gather he's trying to write the ship, as they say. That should come next week. Next thing I want to talk about. And it's all under the same Elon Musk we find out why the stock has been getting hit. He sold another $4 billion.

That's after a bunch of billions he sold and said he's not going to have to sell anymore. That's after a bunch of billions before that. and he said he's not going to have to sell anymore. You think the market has any trust? Stock was down another 13 today. Trust matters, especially in bare markets. We remember, as we have told you, they don't have any bias. It's now being reported this FTX has a shortfall of $8 billion.

You know what that means? They don't have the money to pay people. And you know what that means? There's no insurance. back that up. They're seeking emergency funding to meet withdrawal requests. Who would ever give them a dime? Not I. So just letting you know there's a lot of crap going on right now. We do have the most important inflation report in the history of time tomorrow, whatever. The expectations, eight, still a big number. What if it comes in at seven?

I don't know. Maybe the market will be happy. Maybe not. Seven's still a bad number. But we'll take anything better than eight. So we wish we had better news, but man, crappy day-to-day and a lot of new yearly lows. And we'll wait to get past tomorrow's most important inflation number in history and see what happens from there. But very, very rough day today.

and as we told you the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 types didn't even get off the launching pad while the Dow had a nice move up off the lows and a bunch of them are going into New Yearly Low Ground now and some important ones

I also noticed today just little things Roblox down 8 to 30 bucks 21% down from 141 they lose a ton of money money. What did we tell you? In bare markets, anything that loses a lot of money will get destroyed. They lost a ton of money. Lessons. We're going to put a whole lesson book together

on all this. Rules of bare markets. They've all come to fruition again. And brutally so. We were worried about bubbles popping. Dang. What have we said to you before? We're stunned. We are stunned at what we are seeing in individual names. 90% drops. What? Huh?

Now, eventually we will come out of this. We'll be ready. Didn't happen today. Did not happen today. Tomorrow, I'm pretty darn sure Adam will be doing the show because I got to travel to Miami to catch a flight. So I'll be on with Varney tomorrow at 9 a.m. on Fox Business Network.

Check that out. Until the next time you hear from me, drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

Take care of one and all. Hope you've been really listening seriously. This is some serious stuff. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.