Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - What Tariffs [10.20.2025]

Episode Date: October 20, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is October 20th, 2025. It is a Monday. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. The economy, tariffs, your job, your industry, anything and everything that matters, we are going to cover. Hope you're having a good day.

Today would have been my father's 94th birthday. As you know, he passed away on August 24th, And all I was doing was thinking about him today. 93 years old, almost 94. I am so grateful for how many years, but it still has not been on the easy front, as they say. And we always get told, oh, 93 years still does not make it easy. Still does not make it easy.

Anyway, or not anyway. As we said, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll cover it all. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our X feed. Also the YouTube channel, BizTV and other podcast apps. If you'd like to email me, you just have to be nice. That's all.

Nice. That's all we want is nice. So we want to do a little backtracking. Two Fridays ago, market dropped 800 and something and the NASDAQ 800 and something. World stocks got hit hard. China in particular, the president announced, he came out and said, we're going to have to put on major tariffs on China. and I was like, oh, no, stop.

And the market took a pretty darn good dive. I think it was down 820, let's just say 820 to 850, depending on the Dow or the NASDAQ. After the close, the president announced a 100% tariff on China. This was not last Friday. It was the Friday before, the 10th, I believe. after the market the Dow dropped another four or five hundred points on the announcement of the 100% tariff

within an hour of that time the president started making nice nice well he's a good friend of mine we get along we think we can work it out we're still going to have the meeting that by the way they said they were going to cancel and the secretary of treasury came out and did the same in the

aftermarket the Dow which was down four to five hundred points by the time I stopped looking was more than flat meaning got back the four to five hundred and more

eating into the loss that day and of course we came that Monday to a big gap to the upside off the nice nice. Last week was what we would call somewhat of a wicked week, culminating with Friday, and it ended up an up week, but all the back and forth talk that turned into what I call nice, nice. Oh, he's our friends, we don't like some of the things he's doing, but we can work it out, this and that, which came into today.

And we had another gap to the upside today. But something else happened today that interested us, and that is, the president talked tough today, and the market didn't care. We can take it one of two ways that the market is finally saying, Mr. President, it's the boy who cried wolf or the market's just saying yeah the boy who cried wolf meaning oh we've heard this so many times come on enough we've heard this before we don't believe it well here's our take we don't believe it either there's no way on november 1st there will be a hundred percent tariff on chinese goods That's on top. I guess there's some tariff out there right now with a lot of exemptions.

Here's why. It is our opinion. It is just our opinion. The markets would crumble. The economy would get in big trouble. You know why we know this? Because the last time, precedent. So we don't think it's going to happen. And the market had a very good broad business. market day. The worst areas were up, and if the worst areas are up, and the best areas are doing well, you have a good broad market day. And now, very simply at the close, and this is the way I want to explain it, the Dow is now 60 points higher than that Friday, another what we call tariff day. the doubt is actually above. The S&P is not above.

Closed at 6735. It was that day, 6762, so it has a little bit of work to do. Probably you get there. The NASDAQ, that day was 23-119, closed at 22999. So still have about 130 NASDAQ. points to get it all back. The semiconductors that were hit so hard that day is above. 68-67, it closed today.

It's 6885. And of course, semiconductors have a very direct link with Asia. And there's your story. Banks that were getting very weak last week, bounced today. that's important. Transports that got whacked on that Friday, had a good day. Commodities had a good day. Oils were up.

It was a good broad market day. That's the best way I can explain it to you. I have no clue about tomorrow, but a good broad market day. A few things I want to add, as we do a lot of markets today. I've got six pages of earnings this week. I have 12 pages of earnings next week. For example, just tomorrow, before the open, is 3M and Coke in the Dow. GE and GM.

Pack car, big trucker, Pulte Holmes, Home Builder, after the close tomorrow, Netflix, Texas Instruments. Catch in the drift. A ton of important names reporting this week, next week, the week after. Also this week, IBM, in the Dow, Tesla, Lamb Research, KLA, Tencore, Honeywell in the Dow, Blackstone. Is that Blackstone? Yeah, that's Blackstone. How about Team Mobile, Union Pacific, Rails, Ford, Intel, Decker's Outdoor, Norfolk Southern, Procter & Gamble in the Dow. So just letting you know, there's going to be a lot of Jello moving on the plate this week.

And next week. Next week will be Apple, Amazon. I think Google. Next week, it'll be quite the interesting move, but leave no doubt. Strong market has completely

given a certain finger to two Fridays ago and tariff threats. And we're going to Repeat up next what we think is at work here again and explain it to you. It has to do with oil, yields, and the latest move by Jay Powell. That'll be up next.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let's start off with something very important to the bond market, which is yields. Jay Powell, the head of the central bank,

printed to $9 trillion. To $9 trillion. I think it started at three or four. So he printed, let's say, $5 to $6 trillion. Printed. This was during COVID. He took that money.

By the way, conjured up money and bought the hell out of the bond market. are government bonds. The goal was is to get rates down as low as possible during COVID because we had this shutdown. Well, the 10-year yield was bought down to a half percent. He took Fed funds rates, his little short-term thing, to zero. But 10-year yields were at a half percent, which enabled mortgages.

at 3% and under. We opened up. He sat around and that created all the inflation. It was not Biden's inflation. It was Jay Powell's inflation. Biden just didn't help by his $1.8 trillion BS lying sack of inflation reduction act. So once the economy started moving again and thankfully COVID went by-bye, He stopped the money printing, and of course, inflation started coming down.

But he still had all those bonds that they had bought, a ton of them, even though it was fake money. So quantitative easing is defined as printing the money. Quantitative tightening means getting rid of that printed money. How do you get rid of that printed money? Well, you let the bonds mature that you bought. And that's what he did. It's called the runoff. So bonds that were bought many years ago by Bernanke and Yellen before Powell, as well as Powell, he let them run off.

And instead of having $9 trillion of fake money on the fake central bank balance sheet, It went to 89, 88, 87, 86, 85, 84, 83. And rightfully so. We don't believe the Fed should have a balance sheet. Just remember when Ben Bernanke started printing money, he told all of us. It was just for the short term. He lied. In the last 10 days, Jay Powell announced they're no longer going to run off.

the balance sheet, meaning when those bonds mature, they're going to take that money and buy bonds. So there's not going to be more printing of money. It would just be taking maturing bonds and buying back into the bond market. What does that provide the bond market? Liquidity and the perception on Wall Street. And what does Wall Street do? They start buying bonds.

And what is the 10-year yield done since, let's go 10 days ago? It was at 4.16. It's now 3.986. Yields have come down markedly since that day. Why? Again, two things. Perception and reality. The perception is, okay, this is going to,

to be more liquidity and the reality is Wall Street's going to buy bonds, taking yields down. What happens when yields go down? Cost of capital goes down. What do markets like? Lower yields. But let's combine that. What's the second part of the equation? You get lower yields and oil prices have been coming down. So the cost of capital, mortgage rates, and oil prices, the cost of energy going down. And we're not just talking at the gas pump. Do you know how many products are made with petroleum? A ton.

And what does this all do? It helps. Fundamentally, any way you cut it. That's all. And the markets want to go higher because of that. And they wanted to go higher before two days ago before the president sabotaged the markets again with another yeah 100% tariff which

basically he's still kind of sort of threatening but we pretty much all know there's no way in hell that's going to happen because the last time you had a 10% drop in two days so I think the markets come to the realization of that and you combine it with what I just mentioned to you and your back up almost to where we were on that Friday Smackdown and by the way a one-day drop of 850 and 850 and I'm you know rounding off is a big drop so that's that Dow was up 515 today opened up big S&P 71 NASDAQ 310 NASDAQ 100 323

2,000 almost 2%, the socks up 107. Just keep in mind, there's a lot of bearish areas out there. They all bounce today. That helps the broad market. But I can tell you flat out, a lot of areas remain in downtrends. We'll stick with the uptrends. Simple as that. There's your story.

That's the levers. We'll let you know if that change, but I'm so happy that market looks like it may be starting to ignore, and don't take this wrong, but it's a good analogy, the boy who cried wolf. And by the way, I'm not the only one saying that. And there's your story of today. We're almost back to that Friday.

From here, well, we'll be watching oil prices. and then we got much earnings to come that means we're gonna be up early gonna sleep late because what do we do with that numbers and reactions numbers and reactions numbers and reactions we'll see how that goes so good day up Next. Gold. Wow. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative

horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommy-John. today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges, worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject

to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker, makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbom

It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him All right We're going to segue a little now First off I actually got a bunch of emails From all of you on my New York football Giants on

Giving up 33 points In the fourth quarter to Denver Broncos and losing the game 3332. And by the way, they lost it at the end. They scored a touchdown and missed an extra point because their kickers injured. They brought another kicker in instead of bringing in a really good kicker. They brought in a pedestrian one. But that's not what lost the game.

They lost the game because the coach sucks. You play the whole game. You're destroying the other team. The reason you're destroying the whole team and you're shutting them out, going into the fourth quarter in Denver, which, by the way, is very tough to win there because you're being aggressive and you're going after them and you're really going after them and you're tackling great and you're not giving up anything. And they know that you're all over them.

And what do you do in the fourth quarter? You go into the prevent defense. You back away. You hope time runs out instead of staying. aggressive, and Denver scores 33 points in the fourth quarter. They ran up and down the field. They were throwing 20-yard passes like there was no tomorrow. They were easily throwing 10-yard passes because the cornerbacks were 12 yards deep.

This coach is so bad. And you know what? They've been getting better and better and better, and he changes up the scheme in the fourth quarter. Amazing to watch. that is my New York Giants for the day by the way on the betting front you know what I've been doing in the Major League playoffs

I'm betting the over every game and you know what I think I'm hitting 80% I'm just betting the over every game last night's game was seven and a half they finished at eight there was a game where I got the over in the second or third inning what do we say to you about

what the market gives you? It just seems like, you know, the market's given overs. We'll see how long that lasts. Next thing I want to bring up. So I'm in New Jersey with my son and you can get Draft Kings Casino on your phone, or I guess on your computer. Do you know they have live casino games in a bunch of states right now through like Draft Kings and somebody else? Live. In other words, you're there and you see the live person dealing out to you. Boy, they got you. Man, oh man. And you know, it's amazing. Draft Kings, I was looking at this, and Draft Kings is just sending out these promotions to you while you're on there. Hey, bet five, and if you get this, we'll give you 50, this, that, this, that, this, that.

And they got everything lit up like in Vegas casinos and stuff. And what are then they do? If you've got a gambling problem, call this number. I think it said call this number. It's almost hysterical. It's almost hysterical. As I've always told everybody with the lottery and gambling, just be smart. That's all.

because man oh man they're coming at you they are driving to the hoop on you you're watching football games and baseball games and basketball games right now and the anchors and the announcers are stopping in the middle of the game well you're all three and a half points and they have celebrities coming at you just be careful and you know what we think of the lottery right it's the greatest con greatest scam in history we want you to remember that Especially the scratch-offs. Yeah, people win big. You know how many? Very few. I do play. I'll play that big stuff when it goes above 300 million.

Because the odds are like 300 million. You can get hit by lightning three times in three straight days at the same place, same time, and have better odds of that happening. Be careful with your money, please. Man, these draft kings, why didn't I think of that? They got you. I can imagine people spending their whole day on the phone playing casino games and live casino games. I can see it.

They got you. Same with the Instagram. They got you. I see people on Instagram video after video after video after video after video after video. They'll sit there to go through 500 of them. They got you. they figured it out to have your attention. You all remember that, okay?

Mark Zuckerberg figured it out. I've never been on TikTok. I've been on Instagram. I've never been on TikTok. I'm going to have to try that out. I guess it's the same thing. And by the way, people are making a ton of money, a ton of money with businesses on these applications.

something you all can think of that. If you are a genius at one thing, I keep telling my brother, you know, Stephen, you are the preeminent genius on yes and Genesis. Why don't you start something on Instagram? I bet you can make a business out of it. My brother's an absolute genius on yes and Genesis. He can tell you about what the set list was in 19,

1975 at Madison Square Garden. The whole works. People are making bazillions of dollars on just differing things and you get paid by the views. You know, there's one guy, I think he lives in Italy,

has these three dogs, they look like pit bulls, but nice pit bulls. I don't know if there's some, I guess they're nice. He feeds them with a fork. And he's got a million and a half followers. I don't know how

He gets paid, but he's got a million and a half followers. He feeds his dogs with a fork. And it's pretty cool, actually, but I'm just letting you know what is out there. If I ever retire what I do, I will spend some hours thinking about that. What can I do on there? And then there's that only fans thing. Wow. Have you seen those numbers?

And by the way, it's not just the sex thing. There are working people with workouts on there, a bunch of other things. But man, the numbers there. Some woman announced she made 80 million bucks on her first year. And guess what? She just wears bikinis. 80 million. And by the way, she showed the 80 million.

She wasn't lying. What an amazing time we live. live in right now, ladies and gentlemen. And by the way, a lot of people making a lot of money didn't have a you know what to you know what in before. And there's eBay businesses,

YouTube, holy moly. So just letting you know. I don't know how I got to talking about this, but just letting you know, it's all out there for you. Okay, back to where we were. Narrow

but good. narrow but good and the same areas before the Friday of two weeks ago doing the trick into earnings and I never usually say this but I have to tell you this is going to be a very interesting earnings report season one for the books if you ask me so stay tuned what we do each and every day is let you know what happened in the morning and if time what in the afternoon or the next day cover the earnings after the close from the day before specifically the big gaps and the big names we're ready up next a bone to pick and it matters This is the one the only investor's edge.

It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card, What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In The Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa. So as you know, and we take no joy, we believe the media is causing a lot of problems out there, a lot of strife, a lot of pent-up emotions based on lies.

And they're doing it in plain sight because they don't answer to anybody. They have protections on everything. In the last few days, Hamas has been murdering Palestinians with shots to the back of the head and hangings. Hamas is publishing them on video. You see anybody reporting that? Oh, that's right. Why would they? Hamas

murdered two Israelis over the weekend and attacked Israel Reuters Reuters AP CNN others

you know how they reported Hamas attacking Israel Israel attacked Gaza Go look You go on my little X feed and I put them up.

Why am I bringing this up? We just want you to remember. Under Joe Biden, there was no immigration problem because they didn't report on the $10 to $20 million coming through. Under Joe Biden, there was no missing children, even though there were a ton of missing children, coming through. Under Joe Biden, nobody died coming through,

even though many people died drowning, and in the back of overheated trucks trying to get here. Under Joe Biden, not reported. Under Donald Trump, in his first term, oh, they rode at home 24-7 of the separation of families. Joe Biden separated families for his four years was not reported. Did you know the greatest deporter president ever was Barack Obama? Do you remember the media ripet his stuffings out?

Do you remember anybody protesting Barack Obama deporting millions of people out of this country? Oh, that's right, you didn't. We just want you to remember this. The media, our media is turning this place into a banana republic. By the way, this is not about Trump. This is about the whole scenario, because as you know, I'm about to hit Trump on something in a minute. We're just letting you know. We are watching people protesting this no king's thing, whatever.

They have every right to. But a lot of them were still on the free Palestine, and Israel is murderers while Hamas is murdering Palestinians right now, and the media is not reporting it. We just want you to remember all this because it will get worse, not better. They continue to show they don't care about you. they care about an agenda and ulterior motive. And you know what the ulterior motive is with Israel?

Benjamin Netanyahu is a righty. If Benjamin Netanyahu was a lefty, they may not be doing this. They suck. Speaking of sucks, Donald Trump let George Santos out of jail because he's a Republican. George Santos is a crook, a criminal, a fraud of the highest order, and the president let him out. While having his Justice Department, the president, indicting others that he does not like, George Santos is out of jail, telling all the other frauds out there, hey, if you're friends with the president, you'll be okay.

nobody can tell me that Donald Trump is the crime president because if you're in the right space and spot your crime pays I'm upset with the president on this

I was upset when he did a blanket pardon on the January 6th you do know why Oh wait to the Marxist party Has the White House It's to be careful What you wish for I saw a bunch of Republicans

They were not upset about George Santos Being let out of jail What is it a commutation or something Oh just wait Wait to a Marxist Has the tariff power If they win in 28 Imagine Gavin Newsom with

tariff power. What, you don't think he can win? Just letting you know. What do they say about Pandora's Box? Opening one up. A can of worms. Opening one up. Me believes President Trump is opening up a can of worms in Pandora's box

by letting this guy out, but going after those that he does not love. like it's going to get worse and wait to you see if a Marxist takes over we're screwed just remember this president is setting the precedent have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you'll feel better I promise they will be well and I don't have TDS one everybody until tomorrow by bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb

on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a

Game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double-mise on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.