Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - What's with Nvidia? [02.26.2026]

Episode Date: February 26, 2026

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Starting point is 00:00:30 at all tastes like. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Starting point is 00:00:49 Happy that you are listening. It's Thursday. It's the 26. It's 2026. Hope you're having a good day. As always, lots to cover. Lots to talk about. serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry,
Starting point is 00:01:05 the Morlocks in D.C., the illogical BS that flows out of there on a daily basis, and whatever else. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it on our X feed. You don't follow us on X. You should. We'll post it there and put our name in. If you like to email us, you'd just be nice. We'll also post it on the Biz TV YouTube channel. So, I always know what everybody's thinking.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Why? Because I get calls. I get emails from people. I've never, I don't know who they are, never met them, never spoke to them. I get calls from people.
Starting point is 00:01:49 Don't know who they are, just people that watch us on tube and follow us on radio. And today was a busier day than most. Now, unfortunately, when I get a phone call from any phone number now on my phone, it says spam. So what I have to do is let it ring. They leave a message. I call them back.
Starting point is 00:02:18 Every one was an inquiry on Nvidia today, which tells me these people all owned Nvidia. And I was thinking to myself, the worst acting semiconductor stock, big name is AMD, Broadcom right behind it. Nvidia is pretty much the third worst acting semiconductor stock, but that's the one everybody owns because it has the biggest name and because before it had good moves. But we're still somewhat on the amazed side the tolerance people have. NVIDIA stock has not moved in ages. And for me, ages, the stock is trading where it did beginning of August of last year. Let's see. One, two, three, four, five. six months and two or three weeks.
Starting point is 00:03:37 So at the outset today, I'm going to just talk Nvidia for everybody. We'll first talk on a technical basis, and then we'll talk, why did Nvidia drop almost $11 today after reporting? And let me be clear about the numbers. They were strong. The numbers accelerated.
Starting point is 00:04:01 What does acceleration mean? Well, the last three, four quarters of NVIDIA, earnings up 33, 54, 60, and 82. Last three quarters of sales, 56, 62, 73. They're great numbers. Yet, Invidia sold off on 352 million shares over five and a half, about five and a half percent. Have you ever played whack a mole? You know what that is, right? You put one of these hammers in your hand, and the,
Starting point is 00:04:36 whatever they are, the frogs or dragons pop up, and what do you do? You take that mallet and knock it on the head and drop it back down. Wackamol. How about you have an attic? Now, some addicts you pull down and it comes down and they're stairs. Other addicts, you loosen it and it goes up and you have a ladder. Amuse me. What happens if you try a hundred times to get that, to get up, move up, and get through to the attic and you can never be able to do that? Think about it that way. Also, what else can I come up with?
Starting point is 00:05:31 I'm thinking the old Batman show. We'll leave it at that. So just letting you know, it's really easy for me. Around 194 to 195, the big institutions are playing whack-a-mole with the stock. They are selling the living crap out of it in and around that level. Now, how do we know this? well they did it on volume back last October but then you have you had one shot on some big news
Starting point is 00:06:14 that got above it to 212 within three days you were back down to 195 and then below it back in early January it hit 193.63 and whackamole in early February it hit 194 494.49 and whackamol. Yesterday it hit 197 63 but closed around 195 and today
Starting point is 00:06:51 down $11. Let's call it 11 to 184 and change. Wackamole. So we're just letting you know we talk support and resistance here technically. Support. is a stock drops down to $100 and rallies up to $110, drops to $100 and holds and rallies up to $1.15, drops to $100 and holds again, rallies to $118, drops to $100, but holds again. Those are your support levels. You can define it. Often in the market, you can take a nice pen and a ruler and draw right across and you get, your absolute unadulterated support level. And then you have what is known as resistance, the ceiling. Instead of 100 being support, imagine your 85 bucks, and you rally up to 100, and then it soles off.
Starting point is 00:07:58 And then it drops back to 90, rallies back to 100, and sells off down to 85, rallies back to 100, sells down to 100, sells down to 90 and just can't get through. That's resistance. That's it. Nvidia is trading between 195 and a low of 170, which, by the way, you ready for this? On November 25th hit 169.55 and reversed and closed at 177.
Starting point is 00:08:34 On December 17th, it hit 17031 and rallied back up. And by the way, on February 5th, it hit 171. So within a dollar three times over three-month period, it hit that low. Didn't stay there long. So between 170 and 194-195, that's your support and resistance. And regardless of how damn good the news was, they took out the mallets and hit that sucker over the head. That's your technical condition of Nvidia. It remains in a range going back to last
Starting point is 00:09:12 August, which is quite amazing for a stock like this, with one visit up to $212 that lasted three days. I'm trying to remember what the news was. It wasn't earnings in late October that rallied up and just fritted it away. So draw line over 195. draw line under 170 and you're back and forth. If you break below 170, bad, if you get through 195, good. Or potentially bad, potentially good.
Starting point is 00:09:46 That is your technical condition on it. The worry is, listen to the worry. Every analyst, strong by, strong by, every pundit on TV, strong, strong, target 250, 300. They're in the White House every couple of weeks. They get in exemptions. Everything's all good. Everything's wonderful. The CEO comes out and says, things are fantastic.
Starting point is 00:10:11 And we're being told it's cheap. And it can't get moving. Eight months of no gains. And the pretty much has taken over Apple as the noisiest stock in the market. That's the worry. But you really don't get really worried unless it takes out the 170. That's all. There's little support higher than 170.
Starting point is 00:10:43 I don't think it's that meaningful. A little bit. I'd prefer to just say 170 to 195, and that's what happened today. Did I have any idea? Hell no. The fact of the matter is, the stock was up in the aftermarket yesterday. I think it was up like a 201-202. Opened up a buck, and they just sold that sucker down.
Starting point is 00:11:06 Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. The fundamental side, this is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.
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Starting point is 00:14:28 It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:14:54 My bad, last yesterday was 19556. It opened at 194.29. So it actually opened down a buck. But it was up all day. And of course, this had a problem for the semis down 270. Today, the socks. NASDAQ down 273, NASDAQ 100294. But I must tell you, NASDAQ was down 440 late in the afternoon.
Starting point is 00:15:23 Nice little comeback. And some semiconductor stocks. Let me give an example. K-LAC, one of the semiconductor equipment companies, hit 1468 today was down 78 bucks finished only down 22 which takes me back that time where invidia on the last earnings report it opened up that day at 196 closed at 180 that day the semiconductors had a vicious reversal and i'm sitting there thinking oh crap this is trouble well the next day The semiconductors opened, bad, reversed, and went on its way to the upside, while Nvidia's done absolutely nothing. So the semiconductor index had a rough day today. I wouldn't be surprised if it gives this the certain finger and shrugs off today.
Starting point is 00:16:26 Not predicting it. If it does what it did last quarter, that's what we'd be looking at. And the fact that I see a KLAC down 78, finishes. down 23. Lam Research today was down 20, finishes down 10. These are some important names, by the way. How did apply materials do? That was down 19, was down 28. ASML Holdings was down woo. Really? Was down a hundred. Finish down 62. It's a $1,400 stock. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I have
Starting point is 00:17:07 absolutely no clue about tomorrow. The fundamental side. Well, as you look at the numbers, earnings, strong, sales strong. But there are people out there that are a lot smarter than me. They would be the Ernst and Young types can look at a balance sheet and really do a deep dive into it. I'm pretty smart with that stuff, but there are people out there that really can pick something off here and there. There are people out there that are saying, well, number one, you know how the thing with Oracle, they said we have a $500 billion backlog, but it's all with one customer and then you had to go into massive debt. Well, Nvidia doesn't have to do that, But there are people reporting about how they're only like four or five customers.
Starting point is 00:18:19 There are people, this is a true fact that Alibaba's coming out with an AI chip. Google's coming out with an AI chip. You still have that deep seek that's out there. So the question is, are they going to be able to take away? Then there is the question of, well, wait a minute. What about the inventory skyrocketing? And what about this obligation thing over here? OZs.
Starting point is 00:18:51 And why are they booking this now when it should be over? There's a lot of that going on. Just so you know, in my industry, this is not Nvidia. Everybody's always looking at how long does somebody depreciate something for because it can make the books look better, these type of things. There was some of that talk today. That said,
Starting point is 00:19:18 I just watched the stock and leave no doubt for the second earnings in a row and Vida's stock got distributed on heavy volume, distributed, and that's that. Wackamo.
Starting point is 00:19:39 The other part of the equation, The other part, it's got a $4.5 trillion market cap with $24 billion shares outstanding. Maybe it's just tough to move. Something like that. That's what may be going on. Don't know, 100%. So bottom line, just a tough day. Down five and a half, I've seen a lot worse.
Starting point is 00:20:15 And if it keeps trading between 170 and 195, so be it. If it breaks 170, I gather that's going to invite some serious selling. But you're 15 points away from that. If it breaks above, I'll call 195, 196. You're only about 11, 12 points from that. We'll keep you informed. But obviously, a lot of people are, still in the stock and remains just plain old freaking range bound. Let's continue. Yesterday,
Starting point is 00:20:57 I had said to you, in the last two days, I had mentioned that the IGV had the highest volume ever two days in a row, and after drops, that often means a washing, out of the drop. So you had a good day yesterday. We're just letting you know another good day today. So while they were blasting the semis, I can tell you that software had a pretty decent day and had some, a reason. Salesforce.com, a very big software enterprise company. The stock's been destroyed over the last year and a half, reported good earnings again, finished up, I believe if I got this right, let me make sure my exact number. Do do do do do do do do do do.
Starting point is 00:22:03 One 99 a half, up like eight, had a strong day on the earnings. So I think these very deeply blasted, stretched, extended, and oversold software stocks, see that, and they bounced. So we're just letting you know the software stocks are bouncing. I have no idea how long it lasts or how far it goes. None of this move changes their big downtrends. will advise as it keeps going and they're in bare markets
Starting point is 00:22:43 that's the best way I can explain it to you I wish I can say it better they're just in bare markets with a counter trend move right now off of that up next
Starting point is 00:23:01 what else we got for you because there's a lot of jello moving on the plate today, ladies and gentlemen. This is the one only investor's edge. Car buying has become a pretty dull experience, but on eBay, behind every car in part is a story waiting to be shared. There was a guy who bought a 2020 Porsche Cayman GT4 on eBay. It was well loved. There are plenty of Cayman's in great condition on eBay, but this one needed some work. That's just the start of the story. So after this guy gets a great deal on his dream car, he rebuilds the whole thing with all these parts he found on eBay.
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Starting point is 00:26:09 This is going to be a no politics day. A no politics day. How's that? we're going to leave it be. We're going to leave it be. Except for the New York City mayor. Schmock. Did you see the videos of the police officers being pelted by a bunch of scumbags with snowballs?
Starting point is 00:26:44 Some of them very hard. You have been hit with a hard snowball? It's like getting hit by a softball, if not a baseball. And a couple of officers went into the hospital. this moron mayor says I don't think anybody should be prosecute for a snowball fight and I'm thinking to myself yeah we know you hate the police but in plain sight
Starting point is 00:27:10 you're telling everybody it's just a snowball fight these are police officers that are being hit and this was not a friendly snowball fight this was some nasty crap going on they were cursing out the police they were taunting and threatening them. I've said since day one, think of the worst case scenario of this guy and times it by 50. I think we're going to be at 100.
Starting point is 00:27:43 Think about that. Did you see the, go look at the videos, you tell me, it was not little kids saying, let's have a snowball fight. It was a bunch of ass clowns. Now, we found out that one of them had a warrant out. They arrested one of them. He was a criminal already. We'll see if they do anything else.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Boy, that irritates the hell out of me. Because I'm up there every couple of weeks. Because if you don't do anything about this, somebody else is going to do it again. That's how criminals are. They're a bunch of wimps and cowards. They just got to know they can get away with someone. something. Oh, that really? You mean I can go into a drug store and a supermarket and steal
Starting point is 00:28:40 $949 and not have anything happen? Terrific. Of course, I know if it's $9.50, I can be arrested. So I'm going to bring a calculator into the store as soon as I hit $9.49. Actually, I'm going to be smart about it. I'm just going to go to $9.30, not even get close. Shear insanity. You know, I read another one today in California. They let out a serial pedophile because he hit a certain age. What? Huh? They have a thing in California.
Starting point is 00:29:27 Oh, you can be a serial pedophile and attack little kids. But if he hit this age, yeah, we'll let you out. They're insane. It's absolute insanity. All right, now I'm done. Let's go through some other areas of the market. Gold mine is really impressive. I think it's at a new high today,
Starting point is 00:29:52 while gold's not even really close. And when I say not close, GLD's at 510, GLDs closed at 477. That's freaking impressive. Next. We've had some artificial intelligence marked downs. They went after insurance stocks, brokerage stocks. We know about software stocks.
Starting point is 00:30:23 They went after consulting stocks. A few other sundry items. Oh, the truckers. So we're here to let you know that really good bounces on a bunch of them. Some not bouncing that much, but we're getting good, well, we mentioned software already, and let me be clear, they're still way down. They're still way down. I love giving the crowdstriety example because I guess people know it. CrowdStrike dropped $90 in two days.
Starting point is 00:31:05 A $432 stock drops $90 in two days, 20-some-odd percent. It dropped down to 3.42. It's back to 377. Down from 432. So it's got back like 40. We're seeing that. Will they get it all back? I don't know. Oh, and by the way, Crowdstrike before that drop was already in a bare market down from 566. So we're getting that recovery. I noticed Landstar today up 13. That stock went from 165. down to 130 in like an hour. It's back to 157 today up 13. And I get asked, you ever consider trying something like that? You know it's news driven? If I don't think I have any edge whatsoever, heck no. That's my thought process behind it.
Starting point is 00:32:08 I have no edge. And I see it going up, but you're always a genius in real time. Oh, it's going up. You don't know in 10 minutes if something else hit and it drops 20 bucks. So tough call. I can tell you things like Ameriprise. The broker's got hit. Drop from 550 to 450 in three days.
Starting point is 00:32:35 It's back up to 487. So it's still down 63 bucks, but good bouncing. And that helped other areas of the market today. When I said that NASDAQ was down 270-something, NASDAQ 100, down 300, Dow was up 17. And because the stuff area of the market had a better day, small caps and mid-caps are up. And when we mean stuff, insurance, by the way, insurance stocks got hit hard of because the AI, they're bouncing too. The financials had a decent day. transports,
Starting point is 00:33:12 Muwe and Fuego. It was up over 500. The transports finished up 414. They're strong. I must tell you that we're getting some weird numbers. GDP at 1.4, but the
Starting point is 00:33:27 transport's humming? Not sure what that means. But the rails truckers, I'm quite impressed. retail bounce today but very much a mixed bag there China remains very weak but South Korea is strong
Starting point is 00:33:51 a lot of differing things going on in Asia they clipped the solar stocks today pretty darn good there's still plenty not good Bitcoin was down today remember we said yesterday maybe this is the start of something we'll see. It was down today. It was down overnight and down today.
Starting point is 00:34:13 So we said software, maybe, software had a good day. Bitcoin, not a good day. And I watched another Yutz say it's going to a million today. I'm not a violent person. But I'd like to smack the whatever, because people
Starting point is 00:34:32 buy into that crap. I know quite a few people that have lost their you know what's in micro strategy. Quite the few. You'll be careful. There's a lot of stocks, and we mention the froth in the quantum, drones, rare earth, nuclear, destroyed.
Starting point is 00:35:03 50, 60, 70, 80% drops. And they were touted to you from Washington, D.C. on down. Do some legwork. Do some homework. If a company has no sales, run for the freaking hills. Because if nothing changes by rule, they will eventually go back to where they came from when all the noise stops.
Starting point is 00:35:42 And we don't want our peeps caught in it. Quite the day to day. A lot of jello moving on the plate, ladies and gentlemen. Hey, up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one and only investors' edge. Lately, car buying has become a pretty dull experience. But on eBay, behind every car in part is a story waiting to be shared. There was a guy who bought a 2020 Porsche Cayman GT4 on eBay.
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Starting point is 00:37:05 eBay has thousands of cars and is the largest online selection of vehicle parts and accessories. eBay. Things people love. Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Rees. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice.
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Starting point is 00:38:19 Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. I did mention to you already that Rush will be touring Europe. Not a lot of dates, but I'm planning that sucker out. I think I'm going to see them seven to ten times.
Starting point is 00:39:00 that's what I think I'm going to do. Because for me, it's the last vestige of, you know, what I want to see. I think I'm going to do the Eagles again at the sphere. But after that, I'm pretty done. All my favorites, old as dirt. You know, I may see McCartney if he tours again. because my son wants to see him. I may just go see McCartney.
Starting point is 00:39:38 And I did see him, I don't know, a few years ago, he was fantastic. I loved it. He was magnificent. By the way, I'm stalling a little bit because I'm doing aftermarket earnings as I am speaking to you. Okay, got them all. Yippie, yeah, yeah. So again, we started out with NVIDIA because that's what everybody's talking about. It's simple. Just draw a line over 195. If it ever gets over it, we'll be yelling and screaming.
Starting point is 00:40:16 And if you recall, one of the best things we ever did for you on this show is beginning of 24, going into the beginning of the year, we said to you if NVIDIA can ever break above, $500 at the time. This is before they did the split. Remember that? And I believe it was like the third day of 2024. If it breaks above 2,000,
Starting point is 00:40:45 it was 505, just our exact words, buy the crap out of it. It went from 505 to, on the first move, 970. Do you know why?
Starting point is 00:41:03 It was, a long range going back many moons and the longer something trades in a range and then breaks out and it's a leader with great earnings and sales buy it so who knows maybe in the weeks ahead and vizabeth does that above 195 you'll hear the same from us it'll be different though they're a lot bigger company now there's a lot more there's a lot of shares they did the split it's not going to move as good, but hell, I'll take 195 to the old highs 212. What? Do you think I wouldn't take 8% if you give it to me? And then again, I was impressed with how a lot of the semiconductor stocks held today, including the whole Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which was down for,
Starting point is 00:42:01 let's see 8,062-135 was down 405 finished down only 270 and trading above the green line the 21 day moving average so we're cool with that
Starting point is 00:42:18 we ask you don't to listen too much to the Nvidiaites that are telling you just buy it you got to buy it you got to buy it we're telling you
Starting point is 00:42:31 buy it if it breaks above $195 with volume. That's what you do. Simple as that. In order to go up, it's got to go up. Simple as that. In order to go up, it's got to move through the attic. Got to move through that ceiling.
Starting point is 00:42:57 Got to make sure nobody's out there ready to do whack-a-mole. And that's it. I thought the numbers were terrific. Am I surprised? Heck yeah. I wouldn't have thought this happened today. And by the way, lucky software was strong today because if you had a weak software day with this, we would have a nice little 600 point NASDAQ drop.
Starting point is 00:43:22 But software now is in the midst of bouncing to what extent I don't know. I noticed some software stocks getting hit in the aftermarket. I see one going up. So we'll see how that goes in the morning. I'm noticing, by the way, I'm noticing this Duolingo, 117 down to 91 in the aftermarket. In case you don't know, it's language learning, digital language lessons and things like that. It's gone from 545 to 91. Why do I say that?
Starting point is 00:44:03 Oh, they were telling you to buy that sucker at 500 big time. and they've been telling you it's cheap all the way down. By the way, it's good company, but you know what the problem is. At least what I'm being told. There's a lot of them. And I believe didn't Apple come out with some sort of translation through the earbuds and iPhone? You get the point. If there's very little barriers to entry, trouble.
Starting point is 00:44:35 Or if you come out with plant-based food. seriously that's beyond meat we told you who eats plants come on stop the big indices remain range bound four months plus mid-caps small caps a little bit better and I got to tell you they may be poised to break above a little range here foreign markets stronger than ours right now some foreign market's insane keep in mind they are less liquid than our markets and they can come down just as quick. But whatever's going on is going on. South Korea, it's up 50% this year. Not making this up. The EWY broke out at 100 bucks the first day of the year, closed at 150 today. You can go search, why is South Korea up so much this year? Yeah, because they're buying. What can I tell you?
Starting point is 00:45:47 I think the economy's okay. It's not the golden. age. It's not even real strong right now, but I think it could get there. Bond market still acting just fine. Don't want to see oil much higher from here. That be the story. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. It was almost all politics. No day today. No politics day today. Peace out all.
Starting point is 00:46:23 This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
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