Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Whipsaw

Episode Date: September 27, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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while supplies last, loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is September 27th, Tuesday, right? You know how I know it's Tuesday? Because my Giants played last night, they lost to the freaking cowboys. That's how I know. Yeah. Anyway, hope you're having a good day.

We are here awaiting Hurricane Ian. Here's how it's going. Landfall looks to be Tampa-ish area, Tampa St. Pete and surrounding. But it has kind of tucked itself a little bit east and turning a little bit towards us, which is us here in Orlando, Central Florida. Who knows what, I mean, for everybody, Tampa, say Pete, I hope you guys prepped. This crap is no fun. We will, we're going to get hit. And it was only going to be about 35 to 70 miles per hour here.

It looks like it's now going to be 70 miles per hour plus where I'm at. and the other thing that kind of sucks, it's slow. What you really want is fast moving. It's only like 10 miles per hour. And what you want to see is 13, 14. So we're already getting pretty good wind, bad looking clouds. We're prepared.

We're ready. And I've received 100 emails from you guys wishing us well. So we thank you so much. I'm not sure exact timing of when it hits and all that. We will be, you know, we think we'll be on air. I don't think it hits. I'm looking right now. Yeah, we should be fine.

We should be fine. Anyway, so that's that. For all in its way, don't screw around with it. Yeah, it looks right on Tampa St. Pete. Yeah, 8 p.m. Wednesday night. And it's going to hit pretty good. They consider, I think, over 110 miles per hour as it goes there. And then it just shrinks as it gets on land.

All right. That's number one. Number two, we're going to go through markets. And we're going to do a little bit of complaining today. and just remember when we do that it's for us but it's for you also and all our whining and complaining over the last three or four years has protected you from losing a ton of money so we'll keep whining and complaining uh as need be because this is serious talk about you and everything that affects you with a little comedy injected if need be

right now not a lot of comedy. So I want to start out today, and we'll get into the market wrap in a minute, which was all over the map today. And I will tell you, coming into this morning, I'm thinking we're going to get a counter-trend rally. Massive bearishness and just really overbought on yields and the dollar and really oversold on the market. And it's not like something that we change our stance. We just think, oh, we just drop 5,000 Dow points, you know, and we, 3,500 in the last 10 days got a rally, right? We'll get to that in a bit. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. If you don't follow us on Twitter, you should. Just put our name in at Twitter or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me, just be nice. Really, just be nice. And everybody's been so nice. Everybody. I had one sarcastic jackass a few weeks ago,

and they've fallen by the wayside. We don't like sarcasm. Only when we're sarcastic. So I want to talk about preventing you from losing money, keeping you in the loop, giving you an idea of the ills. of my business. I-L-L-S.

If not going back to 08 when so much crime and fraud was committed by the head honcho top dog big cheeses of all the big firms and not one of them got indicted,

not one of them got fired and they all got promoted and made billions of dollars because the central banks blew up the markets to the upside while we handed them 800 billion of our tax dollars.

We warned you, about the SPACs. They're all down 75, 80%, some down 90. We warned you about the coins. We warned you about so much stuff. Well, we're going to warn you about mouths, M-O-U-T-H-S. And as you know, we take pride here and not blasting anybody personally on this show. And we could. When we say analysts, we'll just say analysts. We won't say we won't say what company won't say names. Really, the only person we have mentioned was this person managing the ARC funds. But there's a reason for it.

We've gotten a thousand emails on it. And this woman keeps being interviewed on a certain network, and we're stunned that anybody who's down 70%, why would anybody interview that person as an expert? I wouldn't. Well, she has stepped down from three of her. of funds, the management of funds. And we told you what's wrong with those funds. We just don't think she's ever experienced the real bear market. And she was in the throes of everything we warned you

about a bear market. In bare markets, the biggest winners of the prior bull will drop an average of 70 percent. You better know that. And that's exactly what happened. And she owned all of them. And she kept averaging down on them and has destroyed wealth. But that's not what anger's That's just bad management of money. What we don't like is when she BSes you. And I'm very surprised that that certain network would let her say this on air. So I'm going to Google Bitcoin price. It closed today.

I'm showing the close today of 19,039, or is that yesterday? Yeah, and I got 19,039 at the close today. 19,039. And of course, I think the high of it was $68,000. And we warned you. We nailed it for you. Not only Bitcoin, but Ethereum and all the other coins with our mantra.

90% of the coins would drop 90% of more. And most go into zero. And little did we know there were 20,000 of these coins that all these crooks came out with. And, you know, they came out with the dogy coin. and we laughed at that one, and unfortunately they scam that one up to 70 some odd cents. What was the high on that? I'm showing the high 63, but I'm pretty sure it hits 70.

It's six cents now, and it shouldn't even be there. It should be a zero. They let this woman go on TV on a business network that, by the way, is no longer the number one rated business network, Fox business is. but they let her go on and I did not see the interview and she said within five years Bitcoin's going to 500,000 from 19,000 they let her say that last I looked what is about 26 fold let's see if I got this good 19,000 times 26 is 495. 4,000. She's telling you in five years a coin is going to go up 26 fold. She's an ass clown. And if I was interviewing, don't she say that? My exact words to her, it ain't never on my show again.

Have a nice life. I'll explain that. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people, we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 888, 4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with Ivy. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.

Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.

We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept. that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, I called Kathy Wood of the Arc Fund's ass clown. She went on TV and said, Bitcoin will go up 26-fold within five years.

I'm not even commenting on whether it will or not. I'm just commenting on anybody saying anything would go up 26-fold in five years. If I was on the board of directors of a fund, I'd fire her immediately for irresponsible behavior, for being a clown. a woman down 70% in her funds and has been buying these coins all the way down has the nerve to tell good American people. People around the globe,

I believe that network, when I'm in Europe they have it on, 26fold. I can't tell you how that pees me off. You know why? Because if one person bought it, because she said it, that's one too many. This woman should be ashamed of herself.

She should be drummed out of the business, and you know I never say that about anybody. She is a shill. That is con artistry at its finest. And they'll put her on that channel again. The only reason I would even interview her on this show is to rip her a couple. I didn't see the interview, but I'm just wondering.

They asked her what basis that's on? Did they ask her who's going to pay $49,999.99.99 so it would be $500,000? You think they asked that? Man, oh man. That just irritates the hell out of me. Well, we're here fighting for you. People like that are fighting against you. She's your opponent. And remember, we don't take on anybody here in my industry.

but this was a must because as we say I care about every dime you have regardless whether you do or not 500,000 26fold in five years of an inanimate object a bubble of epic proportions

that is now destroyed wealth but wait a minute Gary isn't it so much higher than it was 10 years ago yeah but nobody heard about it 10 years ago You know all these big genius funds? They're all underwater. Why do you think they're touting? They're touting you. Those are the things that irritate the heck out of me.

Not as much as the Giants losing to the Cowboys last night. But just in case you watched this woman in that interview, I'm giving you the truth. She don't have a freaking clue where Bitcoin's going to go. not a freaking idea where it's going to go. But she did say she's buying more Roku. More. Stock's only gone from 500 down to 58,

and she's been averaging down all the way. Ain't that grand. Next. And of course, we're not going to mention this. Mention who? I take that back. Here is what you're dealing with with my industry. and why it's so important to listen to us in bare markets, let alone bull.

Federal Express Target was lowered by somebody today. From $250 to $125, but FedEx stock is already down to $145. You catch my drift? You got me? That's what we deal with. And as we've repeated, time and time again, Wall Street is a fully invested vehicle. I would gather 99% of all analysts' ratings or buys or strong buys. Money management firms are fully invested no matter what.

And this is not an indictment of that. They have 100-some-odd years of history of bare markets that always end and we have new bull markets. And as of January, new all-time highs. But they all forget to mention how many stocks go by. the wayside, how much money's lost on so many things. And they forget to tell you that these bare markets do happen and your money will drop 30%, sometimes a lot more. So that was the FedEx Target thing I want to mention. And lastly, under the whining. So in case you don't know, one of the screens I have is a streaming screen. And I had to add to the repertoire of my streaming

screen something of, how do I put this, what every Fed has said today. And I can tell you they didn't shut up today. So these are people that created the inflation, created the bubbles, screwed savers, created the greatest wealth inequality in the history of time, destroyed all the price and yield and free markets, distorted everything to where bond markets are getting destroyed and they don't shut up. I believe there were 200 different quotes from different Fed heads today. The Fed is working to stabilize inflation. This is Fed's harker. That's great. The Fed alone cannot address housing-related inflation. They cause the housing-related inflation. You know they

caused the housing bubble, which is now popped. Inflation in the United States far too high. Housing issues in the United States are playing a major role in the rise in inflation. Oh, real? And I can go on and on. What's my worry? They just don't shut up. Ever. And they're confusing. They all say different things.

The guy Cash Carey, who came out on a Monday and said he was happy that on Friday, the Dow dropped a thousand points, didn't shut up today. Did not shut up. This clown, one of the big causes of the problems, one of the biggest doves that all of a sudden is now the biggest hawks, was happy that the Dow dropped the thousand points. points in the day. I'm supposed to be happy about that. Up next, today's market wrap, moves of the day. Whatever else today. I'm Gary. This is the one million investors edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its

fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive, Yeah, wow.

So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive,

and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. Cash flow crunch?

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OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You are listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Well, here is the good news. Winston had his surgery yesterday. They found cancer. They took it out. It did not spread.

They felt it was very small. They say he's going to be great. Now, he's already 10 years old. But this was great news. He's on his way home right now. He's got one of those, what do they call those things around his head? I have a picture of him because they don't want him going to where they removed and, you know, bite at it. But Winston's great.

In case you don't know, my dog Winston is a genius. How do I put it? number one, I take a step, he takes a step, I take a step back, he takes a step back. He sleeps at my feet. Anything I say, he understands. I can make up words and he'll get it. Instead of saying Winston, come on, this way, I could just say over here, he's over here. So we're thrilled.

It's a good day. So the biggest culprits of this market have been higher interest rates and a soaring dollar. In case you don't know, and you should look it up, a soaring dollar hurts or multinationals, and there's a lot of them doing business overseas. Go look at why. Of course, it's great if you travel to Europe and the UK or China and Japan. Their currencies have been crushed. The first time I went to the United Kingdom, it was $2.10 to buy a pound.

It's now $1.7. First time I went to Europe. It was a buck 60 to buy a euro. It's now 97 cents. Awesome. Last night, even with a down day yesterday, I'm thinking we're going to get a counter trend move soon. And then futures started going up, and I'm thinking, okay, here we go. And we were up strong early in the day today. The dollar was sinking, and that's good. And yields were sinking, that's good. Guess what happened by the end of the day? the dollar was up a little bit, but yields were up a lot. The 10-year yield was up another 0.86 today to 3.964.

So it went from 3880, 3878 to 3964. That's two days in a row. Mortgage rates are going to spike even higher, crushing housing even more. So stretched and extended and overbought yields kept going up again today. The good news is we think we'll end up being right about some sort of counter-tren rally. We say that because even with that, the NASDAQ finished up today, though we're going to give you the downside of it. But the Dow finished down today, but off its lows, though we'll give you the downside of that too. fundamentally nothing good happens if yields keep going higher cost to borrow just keeps going up

cost of capital keeps going up cost of doing business keeps going up it's bad news you also had oil prices and I think that was more well it shouldn't have been because it doesn't look like they're going to affect the drilling in the gulf but oil prices are up a stick and a half today We don't want to see that happening. That wouldn't be good. But even with that, and again, yields up markedly, by the way, the two-year yield is closed at 4.295. Unbelievable. The 10 years, we said 3.964.

The 30-year moved up markedly today, up 3.829. Not good to see. But the rest of the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com.

The Dow was still down 125. Not bad. Do you know what the problem is? The Dow today hit 29659. It was up 524 points higher than the close. The Dow was up 400 points early and finished down 125. That's not good news. 29659, that's 525 points.

Yeah, we're up 400 on the Dow. We ward down to 28958. So we're down, I think, 300 at one time. The NASDAQ finished up 26. We'll take it. And the NASDAQ at one point today was down about 60 at its worse. You know what the problem is? The NASDAQ was at 11-040 at one time. It was up 237 when the Dow was up 400 and finished only up 26.

That's not great news. So not a great day. but I will tell you, considering what yields did again today, it was actually a great day. But the word considering is not a good thing. Transports bounced 150. They're due. That's all I can tell you.

They're due. I noticed Ryder went up $9.00 that helped. Rider wrenched trucks. There's a buyout speculation, and that's why. So really the transports weren't up 150. They were artificially up 150. Apollo Global Management is set to exploring a takeover. That's what did it.

I knew something was up because I don't remember seeing it. And that happened late. Oil stocks bounced. They had been trashed recently. But then the semiconductors are up today a little bit. Financial is very weak. Housing week. Utilities weak, interest rates.

So we'll call it kind of sort of a win based on yields, which means if yields start to back down from here, we may get a better rally. I mean, we should. We're just so oversold in the Dow, just the whole market, over 2,000 new yearly lows again today, 2043. So I do believe we can bounce higher here. Just remember, that's the trees.

The force is the big picture. Does not change the big picture. At all. Yeah, the writer came out at 3 o'clock today. Does not change the big picture. And the fact is, we can rally 3 to 5% from here. And it would just be because we just dropped in 10 days, we make it 11, 3,600 plus Dow points.

In 11 days, we had the 125 to yesterday. So we'll be continuing to watch rates like a hawk. The dollar like a hawk. Both are due to pull back. Just on norm. Just on norms. They're so stretched to the upside I can't begin to tell you. Leadership in the market, hardly anything left.

You know, they finally got the waste management stocks that were holding up. Solars, there's like three or four names that are, I consider, almost strong, holding up. And I got a smattering of a few other. names. What's a smattering? It means, oh, one stock from this sector, one stock from that sector. But I basically don't have any other sectors at this juncture really in what we call good shape. It's that icky. And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. We'll see how the yields behave. The dictating policy. Up next, I disagree with some geniuses. I'll explain. This is the and only investors' edge.

Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.

How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to feature. fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills

and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. On deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team or bridging cash flow gaps. OnDEC's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews.

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Well, what are you waiting for? Welcome, two, ready, go. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So those who listen to this show judiciously know we have been complaining about Jay Powell since Christmas of 18 and really started blasting them since the printing up to $9 trillion and getting Europe to do the same, same amounts every month. as well, Japan and China also.

Well, guess what? They're all out now saying the same thing we've been saying for two years. They're all finally coming around to what we already knew. And it's not just here on radio. I've been doing it on TV for two years. I think they were getting sick of me. But now everybody now agrees with everything we said. Mainly they don't know what the hell they're doing.

even what people that I consider geniuses are now blasting the Fed. But we have some disagreements. Anybody here in Jeremy Siegel? One of the most brilliant people on this planet. He is out there complaining about the Fed that they're tightening too much. They better stop or they're going to cause a deep recession. We disagree. 1,000% with that thought process.

Elon Musk came out and said, the Fed should lower rates. We disagree with that 1,000%. And we saw some other people that Wall Street types say the same thing. And why would they do that? Well, I think in Elon Musk's case, you know, the stock market. I think Jeremy Siegel actually believes it, that they need to stop. Why do we disagree with when Jeremy Siegel says it is the Fed that's going to cause a deep recession? Because it is not the Fed that is causing a deep recession now.

They started the problem. They put us here. Leave no doubt. But the moves they are making now, and this is my belief, and this is where I disagree, are just plain catch-up to the real market. Your mortgage payments are based on the 10-year yield. Jay Powell right now, his Fed funds, is at 3-3.25%. The 10-year yield is nearing 4%. It is that 10-year yield that is doing the 10-year yield that is doing the 10%.

damage. Not Jay Powell. Jay Powell just started this nightmare, took us into the nightmare. But at this juncture, the nightmare is Jay Powell needs to be much higher. The market says so. Remember our contention and so far it's been right on. In order to lead, you have to lead. The market is leading Jay Powell. Jay Powell is just a passenger on the bus. Therein lies a big problem. And if it's inflation they're fighting, while the market's speaking loud and clear. Let me go one further.

The two-year yield is 4.289. Jay Powell is more than a point below the two-year yield. So we don't think at this juncture, Jay Powell, raising rates, is causing worsening of the economy. It's the market. And I got news for you. That's what matters. And it's supposed to matter.

See, all these people are so used to what we've been telling you. They took over markets. Markets were always dependent on Jay Powell. But that was when he was able to do easy money. That was before he created the mass of inflation with a stupidity. but now we've gone all the other way. The inflation's there. And what the market is doing right now,

the market right now is telling you, the market right now is combating. The market right now is saying because of inflation, yields have to go up to accommodate. That's what was supposed to happen in the first place, but J-PAL prevented it.

my thought distortions that eventually would get unwound and then look out little did I know how quickly it would unwind. So the problem is, not that Jay Powell is raising rates, the problem is he's still way behind. We think Jeremy Siegel's 100% wrong on that. The economy being in recession starts and ends with Powell, but now it's been taken over by what's supposed to take over, the real market. It's the way it's always supposed to be. Free markets.

You and I, investors and traders, to buy and sell at a certain time, at a certain price, at a certain size, without the interference of some lawyer-turned head of a central bank. You do know he's a lawyer. He's not an economist. So there's the problem. And every day that yields go up, he's farther away. that's what's doing it and I have news for everybody

if the Fed announced that they were lowering rates tomorrow I think the long bond yields would go up even more because that would say he's no longer fighting the inflation that's still out there obviously and woe is us if oil prices go back up again right now oil seems to be I don't know if the word's down for the count but certainly at the low end of range going back seven months.

That would not be good news. So that's the thought process there. Elon Musk is just all about the market. He just want markets up, but he's wrong. And since we've been right for four years, they may just want to listen to us. And we're going to write about this tonight. Anyway, you all have a great evening. Those in the crosshairs of that hurricane like us.

Take care. air on the side of caution. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. We'll be on with Charles Payne tomorrow, Fox Business Network 2 p.m. hour. And until then, stay well, be well. Thanks for joining us. Make sure you hug your children. They'll feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Peace out. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

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