Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Whipsaw City
Episode Date: September 27, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/ or GaryK.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday, September 27, 2023.
Hope you having a good day.
As you know, I am up here in the Northeast, tending to pops.
We are doing this show from a little room in a hospital where they have good internet.
I'm on my software, my iPhone, my iBuds.
Stephanie, the genius producers here to help.
And we're ready to roll.
I want to thank everybody who emailed with their well wishes.
It's pretty simple.
When you're 91, going to be 92 October 20th, you never know what.
going to show up and my father decided to be a little cutesy fell on his head and has staples
in his head the good news is looks everything looks good but you know just to make sure type of thing
at that age so we're just taking care of what we got to take care of we do markets here
we do your money we do the economy your jobs the job market
We go in depth into all of that.
We go into things that we think matter to you.
And of course, what's going to matter going forward is what Nutt Job is going to be running the country starting next after November, January.
Tonight on Fox Business Network, where you can see me several times each week.
My good friend Stuart Varney will be one of the moderators for the Republican.
another debate, not with Donald Trump, because, you know, why would I do that?
Anyway, you know what?
I can almost understand because he is pretty much lap in the field times 50.
So what have you?
So check that out tonight.
I believe it starts at 9 o'clock.
And hope my first question and my last question is, what are you going to do about the $33 trillion of debt and the massive deficits?
But that's for another day.
The other part of the equation is the markets.
And as you know, they've been under pressure.
We have highlighted for you big time.
What have we simply told you in recent a while?
Oils, coal, aluminum, a smattering of other stuff and everything else, not very good.
And it's been worsening by the day.
And we try to, it's very tough to do it on radio.
you know, we do these webcasts where we actually show you things for our members.
But we think we explained it pretty well.
We listened back to the show as far as up trends, downtrends, where to be, where not to be.
And we're in one of these moments, regardless what the market did today.
And we'll go through what the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ didn't in a little bit.
There's a couple of things going on.
fundamentally, the fundamentals.
What do we mean by that?
Well, 18 months ago, if you would have gone to buy one of those pack of Hershey's
little bar, you know, the little ones, the Hershey's, that you dole out at Halloween,
well, it was 1099 and now it's 1499.
Now, that's not a big deal.
Why?
Because A, you can choose.
choose not to get the chocolates. You can choose not to get them. It's as simple as that. Oh, I'm not going to get them. They went up in price. They're too expensive. Whatever. But if you drive, if you go on an airplane, if you're a driver, if you work for Uber Eats, if you drive for Amazon or Walmart or anything,
If you buy tires, solar panels, or the thousands of products made with petroleum, oil prices today went up another $3.37.
In case you don't know, that's a gargantuan one-day move.
And we have now gone a barrel from $68 bucks about 90 days ago to almost 94.
And whatever you see at the pump this second, if nothing changes, let's just say it stays the same in 10 days from now, the price at the pump, wherever you are, will be up 35 cents.
That's my guess.
And we're pretty good at guessing that.
That's on top of already what you have seen.
there's a reason why the airline stocks have just been blasted,
and there's a reason why they topped out within a couple of days of oil prices
bottoming out.
Cruise lines, the same thing.
Truckers, rails, and the like.
So I'm just letting you know, for me, for us, that is really front and center.
That is really big time front and center.
It is a huge part of the equation.
Billions and billions and billions of dollars are now going to be going towards oil, gas, what have you, instead of maybe something else.
So that's number one.
number two, and just forget about what the Dow and S&P did today, we'll get to that whipsaw in a minute.
The 10-year yield today finished up another 0.68 to 4.626.
It was 3.296 in May.
It was 0.4 in March of 20.
of course brought to you by God himself, J. Powell.
That is your cost of mortgages, credit card rates, anything lending.
Those two are just a one-two punch on the economy going forward, potentially.
Just remember, you know what the economy is going for it?
150 million of us going to work every day to do better for ourselves and our families.
You know what's going against us?
The crazies in D.C.
That, by the way, have caused this.
Do you know why this is happening with the 10-year yield?
It's the normalization of a free bond market that was not free because of one man in his whims with his ability to take rates down to zero.
Do you know why oil prices are doing what they're doing?
Because investors, traders, and speculators are betting against Joe Biden's policies.
And that is just a couple of weeks ago, oh, we're cutting down their drilling in Alaska.
While at the same time, the Saudis and the Russians say they're going to slow down production, which forces up prices.
Thus, we've gone from 68 to 94.
And let me just say this.
There's a word called shock.
Now, the markets have been under pressure.
A lot of areas have been trashed.
A shock.
I'm just wondering what other shocks there may be going forward.
With today, another day, with oil prices overhaul,
You think maybe they're going to pull back?
They ramped again today.
With the 10-year yield overbought, you think it'd pull back?
It ramped again today.
Started down, finish near the highs of the day.
Again, a one-two punch that we are watching big time closely.
Do you know why?
Retail stocks are getting jammed.
Restaurants are getting trash now.
Why would that be?
Well, it's very simple.
average Americans saying we're just not going to go to the restaurant because I'm spending an extra so-and-so hundreds of dollars every month on this that and the other thing.
That's how it works.
It's a process.
And we're just letting you know both of them finished again poorly as all heck today.
And that's regardless what we tell you about the whipsaw day in the market today and how it fits.
So pay attention. Nothing good happens. This has been our canned line. Nothing good happens if yields go up and oil prices go up. Up next, full markets and the news. This is the one only Investors Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based
discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.
We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income,
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proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would
like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is
888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-59. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services
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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary.
called bomb it doesn't get better than this so here is an opinion here is an opinion it's just an
opinion it's not a fact it's just one man's opinion and that being me and as you know i've been pretty
darn good with opinions on central banks on the debt on the deficits on the maniacs run in the show
We've pulled no punches.
Here is my opinion.
I don't know how this economy can stand on its two feet with what is going on with oil and what's going on with the yields and what is going on in D.C.
This president has foisted upon us two trillion-dollar years.
deficit this year on purpose.
Now I want to make sure you know I've said this before but I'm going to say it again.
In the year 2000, our whole federal spending was $1.8 trillion.
Jefferson warned us decades, centuries ago about a select group of people taking over the government
and turning it into, they didn't use these words, but I am, a gargantuan gigantic blob that takes over the economy in ways unimaginable.
Our federal spending in 2019 was $4.4 trillion before COVID.
We then had to add some trillions because of COVID.
This year is going to be $6.6 trillion without COVID, meaning this, this,
president has taken the size of government up 50% since the year before COVID.
It's a sin.
It is a headwind.
It's a kick in the teeth.
Most of that $380 billion is being handed to a Democratic hack named John Podesta to give out to climate.
Now, I know you people that believe in them and climate change, it's a scam.
it's a scam
the climate's been changing
since day one
of this world
the earth is 4.5 billion
years old by these same people
who have been telling us what has to be
done how much money has to be spent
have been warning us about
oh in 10 years we're doomed
imagine the grapefruits
of people telling us in 10 years
are doomed when the earth
is 4.5 billion years old
every time there's some bad weather climate change
remember they started out with global cooling
they started out with global cooling
it warmed up
they changed the moniker to global warming
it cooled down
then they changed the climate change they can't be wrong
and do you know what the constant is
there is one common denominator
in all of this
money, gargantuan amounts of money floating into friends and family and compatriots and constituents and buddies
not only here but around the globe and they're trying to tell us they can change the weather.
I'm still waiting for one journalist to ask, are you telling us you can change?
the weather? You can make hurricanes and tornadoes go away. You know, the claim of everything's
more extreme is another gargantuan lie, not even close. And all one has to do is go through history.
We've had ice ages. We've had massive, and this is before the supposed, oh, carbon, this,
this, carbon, that.
And then you got the miscreants.
Bill Gates is being asked, well, wait a minute.
You're flying on a private jet.
Oh, I'm buying carbon.
I'm taking care of my carbon footprint.
Oh, kiss my rear end, buddy.
Who's he trying a kid?
It's all a money grab.
It's all a money scam.
And it's getting worse by the day.
and somehow the young people are believing in these people.
And they don't realize it is all about massive confiscation of wealth.
That's all it is.
Nothing more, nothing less.
And your children and the kids that believe in this stuff don't realize what's coming down the pike.
Confiscation.
You know, people like Bernie Sanders once called for 100%.
tax rate above a million dollars.
Imagine that.
Anything above a million dollars,
you've got to give 100% to Bernie Sanders and friends.
These people are sick in the mind.
And yet they're being applauded for this.
So when I say to you two trillion this year,
oh, it's going to be three and five and eight,
who knows where it's going?
and it's going to be a kick in the teeth to the economy going forward.
And as always, one's going to blame the other.
And I'm tired of the Republicans also whining, complaining about it.
They did nothing under Bush.
They did nothing under Trump.
Trump had the championship belt on debt and deficits until Biden showed up.
So we're just letting you know, one-two punch.
interest rates are going higher, not for the inflation, but for the debt.
The debt, because Economics 101 says the more debt there is,
the more money lenders want to be paid to account for that debt.
And that's what you're seeing in real time now, a real market, real interest rates.
doing their job.
That's it.
That's all.
And we'll see where it takes us.
That's all.
We'll continue to call the markets with no bias.
If they want to go up in spite, God bless it.
If they want to keep going down, that too.
And our job is going to be simple.
Just stay one little baby step ahead and that'll be enough.
Because all we have to do is get the main trends right.
And when everything's going to crap, get out of the way.
And as we've been doing now for quite a while, we've been talking about the advanced declines, how bad they are.
Each and every sector to avoid, we've been using that words numerous times,
while telling you for a while now, coal, uranium, oils, and a smattering of a few things in different sectors.
and that did not change today, even with a whipsaw market.
Maybe the near term could be changing a little bit.
I can't go further than that.
But I'm hoping you remember all this.
They are working against us, big time working against us.
Up next, today's market wrap.
Whipsaw, I'm Gary.
This is the one only investors edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits
you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your
earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next
dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture
X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for
details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading
condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds
to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes
the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere
where people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,
well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to
yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And walk once again to Investor's Edge. If we sound a little bit different today, I'm on my iPhone with my earbuds, and we're coming through to you with this little software deal that we have on the iPhone as we are traveled. And right now, I am at a hospital in New Jersey taking care of the dad.
and I have to tell you,
I don't think I have ever felt more important to my family, ever.
I don't think I've ever felt more important than now.
I don't know if that makes any sense,
but I'm thinking about everything my father did for me
and my family throughout the years,
and I'm glad and happened.
to be around for him.
My father's been a great provider
and a great man,
a war hero,
his whole life.
And I see the frustration
in his eyes
and in his voice
that he can't be what he used to be.
He was also a great athlete.
Almost made it to the big leads in baseball.
Anyway,
we segue
way, market wrap, Dow down 69, pay no attention to it. The S&P up one. Pay no attention to it.
The NASDAQ only up 29. Pay no attention to it. The NASDAQ 100 up 34. Pay no attention to it.
The transports only up eight. Pay no attention to it. What I want you to pay you to pay
attention to is that at around two something the Dow was down another 300 and
change the NASDAQ was down another hundred and change and out of nowhere the
market just lifted and what I was looking for was oh our yields coming back down
oil prices dropping and they didn't so we had a good move off the lows now I
will tell you this the NASDAQ got to be if the big
down 100 was up like 80 and only finished up 29. The downtrend near term has not changed.
But possibly maybe. Near term, this is short term stuff. Maybe found a place where the market was like,
all right, enough. You bears have been smiling too much. The bulls are all depressed. We've got to get
the bears upset and maybe the bull's a little bit happy again.
Now, this is short-term stuff.
And it's no guarantee because short-term is a one on a scale of 1 to 10.
The main picture, the big picture is a 10 out of 10.
We'll see.
As I'm doing my scans and I'm doing it in real time as I speak to you,
except for oils.
And not all.
There's some oils that don't look good.
Uranium.
Coal.
A few insurance stocks, the market's a mess.
Leadership, nil.
There were, early in the day, 669 new yearly lows in the market.
New yearly highs?
I don't think I can find any.
Chart patterns, miserable.
Up trends?
Nary a one.
So maybe we bounce some.
we'll see
don't know
think there's a chance
main trend
yuck
except for oils
and not all
uranium
there's only a few names that trade
and coal
which has gone vertical in price
and may I state
again for the record
fundamentally
that's not typically good news
for the consumer,
business and the like.
And as I sit here,
I'm standing,
I'm doing my scans,
I'm looking for good.
Can't find.
On top of that,
the mega-cap tech
continues to be under pressure.
We've been wondering about Apple
and its valuation.
and some of the BS that came out of some analysts recently,
predicting how great the new phone is going to be,
even though they had no clue.
Apples under pressure.
Did not have a good day again today.
Could have been worse, but had a terrible day again today.
So stay tuned.
Financials, not in good shape, especially the regionals.
Semiconductors bounced a little bit today,
but in the near-term downtrend.
And we're going slow.
We know what great markets look like.
We know markets that have terrific leadership.
We know markets that are off to the races.
This market is not off to the races.
My screen is full of oils and coal and aluminum.
My growth screen is becoming more blank
by the day.
What do we mean by that?
We have one screen
that is leading stocks
in leading groups,
growth arena.
And we can tell about
a market strength
and where the risk is on,
whether risk appetite is strong,
if our screen is full
of names.
And the new yearly high list
is burgeoning, look at that big word, with those names.
I got none.
I have not won at New Yearly Highs.
And in fact, recently, a couple of the strongest names were just taken down big time.
So we're going to be patient.
We're going to take our time.
Better days hopefully ahead.
And we try to think positive.
what if oil prices stop going up and start coming down, which they could.
They are definitively stretched to the upside.
What if yields stop going up definitively stretched to the upside?
Maybe we'll get a rally.
The problem again, the fundamental side.
The problem again with yields.
You no longer have one man printing to $9 trillion.
interfering with the bond market, buying up all those bonds,
taking rates down to zero, distorting everything,
screwing you on your riskless income investments.
You're now getting 5% on your money
because he boxed himself in like mixed nuts.
He caused the inflation.
He's now trying to fight it.
And I got to tell you, with oil prices keep going higher,
that's what we call sticky.
And that could be trouble going forward.
otherwise
just take your time
I know some of you are
in mutual funds for the long term
or stocks for
15 years we're not telling you what to do
we're telling you what we think right now
now yesterday
I said something
may be controversial
I said if there's any market
that can really
head down big time
it could be this one
why yields
and oil prices.
That was not a prediction.
We don't predict.
But I will tell you this again.
If yields
keep skyrocketing
and they've been pretty much
on that route
and if oil prices keep going
100 and higher
cost of everything goes up
cuts the consumer off at the knees
the consumer being 70%
of the economy and there's your uh-oh moment we've already seen California go from
3.8% unemployment to 4.6% now maybe that's just one state but California is like
the eighth biggest country in the world for a state up next news of the day whatever
else this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best
time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that
stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold,
there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to
tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com
code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step
closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by
Sprinker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms
include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,
you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it,
everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,
well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action.
Investors Edge with Gary Colpaw.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks to being with us today.
Let us repeat tonight at 9 p.m.
Fox Business Network and Fox News.
We'll be holding another Republican debate without the wimp.
Donald Trump.
I'm not doing a debate.
I'm winning by too much.
I bet you if his poll numbers go down,
he'll start doing debates.
Anyway, that's for another day.
Anyway, one of my favorite Stuart Varney will be one of the moderators,
Dana Perino's who's on Fox News.
And for the life of me, I'm not sure who the other person is.
I think maybe I'll look and give you the name in a second.
But check it out.
All these candidates.
You know, I said this the last time, and they didn't listen.
they're all getting their butts kick
by one person
Donald Trump
and except for Chris Christie
refused to take him down last time
Nikki Haley did a little bit
if I was up there tonight
I'd be ripping the stuffings out of Trump
while telling them exactly what you would do differently
and why you are better than him
you're not up against the other six that are up there
up there. You are up there against Donald Trump. That's what I'd be doing. And I would take the swords out.
I would take the swords out. We'll see what happens. DeSantis, I got to tell you, I have this little
line, never piss on prosperity. This guy has been the definition of pissing on prosperity.
had a real good chance and just started doing some of the, even in Florida, the economy rolling,
had it handled COVID very well, and then he started getting into some all kinds of weird stuff.
And it lost people, unfortunately.
I think he's got some good economic ideas.
I love anyone who just wants to stay out of the way of people.
who just wants to stay out of the way of people.
And he's one of those.
And then he started in.
And then he started in more and more and more.
And he lost a lot of people.
And he's not even number two in these debates.
So he's going to have to stand up tonight and get noticed in a big way.
If not, toast.
And again, the chalk right now is Trump.
I'm still on record saying to you, I don't think Biden's going to be the nominee.
That's my take.
I can be wrong, but I'm on record.
I don't think he's going to be the nominee.
We'll see how that plays out.
Either way, it's like voting for polio versus the bubonic plague with these two.
Can't trust a word.
out of either of them, habitual liars on everything, not to mention whatever.
I'll leave it at that.
You know what else is going on.
Also in the news.
Have you been reading this Menendez stuff?
Just so you know, he is one of two senators in one of our states and one of a hundred senators
and the guys are freaking crook.
And also a bad freaking crook.
Santos and the Republican Party is one of our 435 representatives, a freaking crook and a bad freaking crook.
And then all the insider trading by the rest of them, freaking crooks, things that we would go to jail for, they get away with.
And you wonder why, I worry.
The big news of the day, though, and do not shrugging.
it off. Oil prices. I can't say it enough. Nothing good happens if they keep going higher.
Interest rates. Nothing good happens if they keep going higher. For two bigger reasons attached,
we've never had the debt we have had with this going on. And I have said to you,
I don't know what the trigger is going to be. I don't know what.
date? I don't know from what price. Maybe it's not for 10 years. Maybe it's not for five years.
Maybe it's not for a year. Maybe it's tomorrow. Oh, there's a come-up and's coming.
You can't fit a 10-pound salami in a five-pound bag. And that's what they've all done.
$3 billion a day. Think about that. What can that do for your community?
if tomorrow somebody gave $3 billion to your city to do good.
Your city.
Well, $3 billion a day is going towards interest on the debt.
Nothing.
Trillion bucks per year.
And you know what the problem is now?
I don't know how we get out of it.
I don't know how you can put the you know what back in the goose.
And I thought I've had every answer.
Back on markets.
the best thing I can tell you is at two o'clock today after being down 300 and 100 we finished only down 68 and up 30 on the NASDAQ maybe near term but the market's going to need a lot of improvement going forward we have two more days in the quarter maybe they can do something with it you all have a great evening drive carefully and when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family and children they'll feel better you'll feel better I promise say a little bear for
My dad will be back tomorrow and we'll be on 9 o'clock hour with Stuart Varney tomorrow,
Fox Business Network. Check it out. Have a good night, everybody. Bye-bye.
This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes
or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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