Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Whipsaw Reversal!

Episode Date: January 25, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Explore more than 350-plus undergraduate, graduate and certificate programs at ASUonline.asu.org. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is, uh, what, the 25th of January, 2023. Thanks for joining us today. Uh, you know what this is a show about, right? You? me and everything that affects you and me. You know, we used to introduce this show about you and me and the markets, and it still is. But we've had to address so many other things, so many other facts, so many other interlopers,

so many other numbers that were unimaginable. many, many moons ago. And we'll continue. And I bring that up because we went at it yesterday. We ripped the stuffings out of our political class and their debt and deficits, and they're complete shooting the middle finger at us. And you don't need me to tell you. All you have to do is look at the numbers.

That's all you really have to do. You don't need opinions. just look at the numbers. We'd be bankrupt. They're not. They can just print money, then they retire, make themselves billions, commit inside a trade, on and on. So we got a ton of response to it. I only had one person on Twitter try to take me down, saying it was rants and all kinds of stuff.

Well, let me set that young lady straightens. And I appreciate opinions. You're right. They were rants. They were rants about 31 heading to 32 trillion of debt. They were rants about probably this year. Coming year, $750 billion to $1 trillion does go towards interest. Our whole budget in the year 2000 was $1.8 trillion.

rants about this president raising federal spending from 4.4 to 6 trillion and all of it debt while standing in front of the camera to tell us what a great job he has done lowering the deficit, which is a lie. That was just COVID spending coming off. So call it what you want. Call it a rant. Call it a rant. Call it an extra. explanation. Call it me getting down and dirty. Call it whatever. I am going to continue to tell you the truth. I am going to continue to tell you the facts. I'm going to continue to cover the numbers and the absolute gargantuan middle finger that these people are bringing to us. And when I say to you, there's only one ultimate outcome, I mean it. The history. the history is staring us right in the face of out of control governments and spending and debt

and deficits and insider trading to make them wealthy you know the new thing is this these classified documents you know that's a new thing but we're finding out it's an old thing do you know if you look it up people should be arrested you know that's not going to happen nothing ever happens to these people. They're Teflon. We just found out Nancy Pelosi sold off one point or two million or three million dollars worth of Google stock recently. The Justice Department just filed lawsuit against Google. We go to jail for that. Nancy Pelosi was just praised for her great leadership throughout the years by all the networks, even though she's been had has leadership and oversight over 26 trillion of our 31 trillion of debts since he's been in Washington, D.C. Many of the years as a leader. And you question why? The central bank took rates down to zero, screwing every saver.

Bubbled up asset prices making billionaires, bigger billionaires, which ended up with massive inflation costing you everywhere you go. And then they were wrong about everything and related it. And now they got to roll it back. And you know what they say? Neil Cashcarry, a Fed head, came out and said he was happy when the Dow dropped 1,200 points one day. Imagine what of our central bankers whose mandate is stability happy that you're losing money? They're talking about happiness about losing jobs.

the more jobs that are lost the better and you want me to sit there and say nothing well we're going to continue to say something because I repeat the same people that brought us this are still at this and may I be clear and concise with some words I take no joy in any of this

I would rather be praising these people to the cows come home. But every single day it is something new. It's depressing. Do you know what nine states are trying to do now? And how stupid these nine states are? Are you ready for this? I have it here somewhere. I know I put it. There you go. These states are California, New York, Illinois, Maryland, Hawaii, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Washington. a wealth tax on multi-millionaires and billionaires. And even if you left five years ago, they're going to come after you for being there back then.

Shear insanity. Let me read what a couple of politicians said. Get this. Senator Noel Frame, a state senator from Washington. Noel Frame. We are here today to put billionaires and multi-millionaires on notice. They will pay what they owe. I got news for this, Yutz.

The multi-millionaires and the billionaires are going to put you on notice. They're going to be gone. See you. And when you try to claw back money from years ago, they're going to go to the courts, and they're going to win, and you're going to get squat. and what else happens when you do something like this? Any big business, a multi-millionaire or a billionaire that was thinking about moving into your state is going to say, up yours. Why would anybody go to these states when a representative from Illinois, and I quote, Will Gazzardi, we want to send a message that there is nowhere to hide.

There's nowhere to hide. Imagine if you worked your tail off your whole life and become successful but on your means, but on your wildest dreams. Holy moly. And you're a multi-millionaire and you've created wealth for you and your family. And maybe you started a business from scratch and you became successful. And maybe you became a billionaire because you were unbelievably successful. You have a state representative in Illinois saying we want to send a message that there's no way.

where to hide? What are you a terrorist? This is the latest. So we're going to keep yapping. We're going to keep talking. We're going to keep stating the facts and quoting these buzzards. Socialists are stupid. Control freaks are stupid. Marxists are stupid. Imagine you telling all of the country. We want to set a message to you. There's nowhere to hide. Imagine if I'm thinking of opening up in Illinois. Are you going to open up in Illinois? Are you going to think of moving there? No. And you know who's the happiest now? The real estate brokers in Texas, in Florida, why would anybody of wealth ever go to these places where the leadership of these places are saying to you, there's nowhere to hide? You're on notice.

You're going to pay. I rest my case. They make it easy for me. Up next, crazy market. More aftermarket. This is the one that only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like,

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. By the way, think about that. you have a representative

leadership of a state saying you have nowhere to hide this is what we're dealing with and it's nine states I don't think they realize there's 41 other states people can go to and remember my motto people

capital and business will flock to where they're treated the best if they have that ability you know some big companies have just lifted up and left the northeast and went down to Florida. I don't know if you know that.

Just lift it up and went down to Florida and other states. And I can talk about this for hours. I live here in central Florida and you know what we see? Building of schools, hospitals, emergency care, houses, apartments, restaurants, plazas do you know why because our government here respects people

and values success think about that respect people and values your success what a concept right and this goes hand in hand with some of these schools not telling students they got merit

in order for equity They're telling kids, don't worry, we're going to give you the same grades as others, even though you aren't even close. Race to the bottom. I'll continue my ranting. They make it easy. All right, a couple of things. We'll go backwards here. Tesla reported earnings.

Usually the stock is a big mover. Are you ready for this as I speak? And the report is out. The stock closed at 144-43. I got it at 144-50. 145-10. It's not even moving, which is really a big well, but of course that can change. I want to mention Service Now, a stock that has been trying to come off the lows closed at 448.

It's 423. That one's down. Wolfspeed, a semiconductor closed at 82. I got it at 74. Lamb Research, important semiconductor equipment, close at 488. I have it at 473. IBM reported missed by a penny. I've got it flat.

Las Vegas Sands, down 50 cents. CSX, up a little bit. Ameriprice Financial, flat. So really, it's early. It can change. But Tesla's not even moving in the... aftermarket and just so you know they have what is known as implied moves which way is a stock going to move up or down if in aftermarket they have an implied move alike 13% for

Tesla and so anybody playing options either way are going to get screwed if it doesn't move anyway we'll let you know if that changes but the bigger story today so let me just give you the start is Microsoft first off what you need to know Microsoft's is dead stock and what do we mean by that and again we're not putting down the company we're just letting you know the stock hit a high in November of 21 like everything else that's what we were called tops left and right of three just about 350 it closed today at 240.61 the stock is trading pretty much where it was

between September of 20 and January of 21, give or take a percent or two. Earnings. Let me give you earnings and I'm just going to go back to

the June 19 quarter. This is year over year. I'm going to go December of 18, plus 36, plus 15, plus 20, plus 21 plus 21 plus 37 plus 23 plus 7 maybe COVID related plus 32 plus 34 plus 39 plus 49 plus 25 plus 22 and then plus 14 plus 3 plus 4 minus 6 so we're discussing Microsoft let me state unless those earnings start to grow again it's going to be a top tough road to be one of those great stocks again. Notice we didn't say company were talking their

earnings. The stock was up $10 in the aftermarket yesterday. When the aftermarket closed, it was down two. This morning, it was down 10 in change. It closed down only a buck 50. A very good reversal. Guess what? The market did. Followed. suit because the NASDAQ was down 260 early in the day. It only closed down 21. Nasdaq 100 down 32. So Microsoft being 11.7% of the NASDAQ 100 move the needle a bit today, but I want to repeat. The stock is pretty much stuck. Now it hit a bare market low at 213 was just 219 at the recent low. It closed today at 240, but it's sitting in this channel going back to September, and then a higher low after that, and an, excuse me, a lower high, and then another lower high,

and another lower high, and another low, you get my point. So it's very important you recognize one of the great lessons. Watch them earnings reports. I watch today. Too many. God own this, God own that, go to this, got to own that. I'm thinking to myself, are they even paying attention to earnings? Earnings and sales drive. By the way, let me give you Microsoft sales growth. Last four quarters, plus 18, plus 12, plus 11, plus 2. So we're not saying they're not going to re-accelerate again.

We're saying they're going to need to re-accelerate again. We're all for their re-acceleration. big help to the market today on that reversal. Up next, lots more on the market today. A bunch. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So there were some, what you would call a little bit casualties today in the market. No folks. Southern down 13 on their earnings. Intuitive surgical 14. Booking Holdings was down. ADP, down 11 bucks on earnings today. Yeah, that's a big wow. So not everything so good. Texas instruments, only down three and a half. That's not a big deal, right? Take that back, two and a half.

But there was some things that got hit. What was Kimberly Clark? Only down a little bit. it. But the Dow was down 300, finished up 9. The NASDAQ was down 260 finishes down 21. Rates a big wow. Two days in a row. Dow down big early, finish better. I think that's good news. Though I'm not so sure anything is really baked in the cake right now. And there's earnings, earnings earnings coming out and we don't know what's going to blow up next or or what we've got three decent size drops in the aftermarket on a couple of important well i guess uh three names that are not that unimportant two semiconductor names and uh we'll see what tomorrow brings as let's see blackstone mastercard new core tractor supply sap

Intel, KLA 10 Corps, Visa. That's tomorrow, and I'm only naming a few. So, stay tuned. But when I give out the numbers, they're going to sound pedestrian. It was really a darn good day. Because remember, bear markets are made up of strong opens, weak closes. Bull markets, weak opens, strong closes. Now, I'm not so sure we're in a new bull market,

but I do believe we're in, you know, a, how do I put this? I'm going to say we're in a moment where disaster is not at hand. Individually, yeah, you can get some, but you had an opportunity for some disaster today and did not get it. Tomorrow is another day, and as we always tell you here, I have no clue what tomorrow brings. So the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dow up 10. It's a great Dow up 10 today. Does that make sense? S&P flat, a great flat S&P today. NASDAQ down 21, NASDAQ 100 down 32.

That's not good, is it? It's great. Sox up 5. I think it was down 60. It was only up 5. That's great. Transport's down 160. Advanced declines were better today, and they were very weak early in the day.

Now, that doesn't give rise to the market tomorrow because why we have all these earnings reports and you never know what's going to happen from those earning supports. And as I stated, you got service now, which has been trying to come off the lows, down 24 bucks in the aftermarket. Good 5%. You got Lamb research, as we stated. Down 15 bucks in the aftermarket. And less of important, but still a semiconductor, Wolfspeed. Closed at 82. I got it at 74. And of course, these numbers can change overnight. They do this, that, and the other thing.

I think the real story is, though, Tesla, which always moves big one way or the other, I got it up 30 cents in the aftermarket on their numbers. and by the way let me see the numbers here of yeah yeah yeah beat by 8 cents revenues in line

this that and the other thing and that is all and again as a lesson you want to see weak opens and strong closes weak opens strong closes you know we've been playing it close to the vest and we got our most invested

we've been in since the bear market started. We lopped off a little bit today and watched things go up. We're still the most invested we've been. Previous. We lopped off a little bit today and not thrilled, but no blood. And that's fine. If we're going to be wrong, I don't mind being wrong, making a few pennies. But very tough market. And I just want you to be careful of, there's a lot of people being paraded in front of you. that just talking like it's going to be easy pickings. Oh, just buy.

It's this company. It's that. It's Microsoft. It's Apple. It's this and that. And some of these people have been telling you to buy all the way down. And they really should be checked on that before they're able to talk. If I told you that Apple was a buy at 170 and I parade myself in front of you at 140 and

tell you to buy, it's incumbent upon me to say, oh, but by the way, I've been telling me to buy all the way down. Unfortunately, we're not getting a lot of that, and that sucks. Sorry to say. One thing we're about is full and fair disclosure. That's why we're very careful about what we say here and we listen back to what we say. They got some tech analysts out there that are talking companies that they've been telling you to buy and they're down 60, 70 percent. I'm not kidding. And they go on and tell you, you got to buy them now, but they're not. And I don't think it's incumbent upon the person interviewing. I think it's incumbent upon the person to do the right thing and say, well, we've been telling you to buy it all the way down, but hey, sure, sure.

Shouldn't that be the right thing? That's the correct way to go. Big time. Now, if they would tell me to buy something at 200 and then said, hey, we're out, it's a different story. Last November, when we went 100% cash, we owned things before that, but we physically changed our stance and stated it so. So be careful Some people being paraded as gurus Ain't gurus

They're bull market babies I call them They live off the bull and have no idea How to deal with the bear And that goes for Many are famous I told you they're hyping up What's her face Because she's up 20% off the lows

She's down 76% from the highs What the hell good is that well it's good if you bought it the low terrific we believe in the big picture and the weight of the evidence at hand

and we will let you know we will always do our best to fully disclose everything and that's why we're very careful about our words very careful and we get people saying

Gary why don't you say buy this because if I sell it tomorrow in a market like this, no guarantees, in a big bull market again, may be a different story. I sit on TV today, I don't want to have to look over my shoulders. The one thing that's been drifting higher has been the gold miners right now. And the Chinese names, and there's a few names that have strength. There's a couple of semiconductors with inordinate amount of strength. Names that most people don't know, but there are some things.

So be careful. Please. We don't usually mention other people here, as you know. There's just a few people that we really listen to. Sam Zell on real estate. Ron Barron on fundamentals. David Tepper, hedge fund guy. If George Soros ever speak, take your politics out.

If he ever speaks, you want to listen. Paul Tudor Jones, some of the greats. Gentlemen, my name of Grantham, Jeremy Grantham's out there. Very bearish. If you go on Market Watch, read up, he's saying that this leg up ain't lasting. We don't know if that's going to happen or not. We're just letting you know it's one of these guys that we follow. Pretty damn good.

We'll see. The market will decide. up next more and this that and the other thing i'm gary this is the one only investors edge this message is brought to you by the capital one venture x card venture x offers the premium benefits you expect like a three hundred dollar annual capital one travel credit for less than you expect elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination plus enjoy access to over one thousand airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject

to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker, makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com. com for details you're listening to

what are we waiting for well what are you waiting for one two ready go welcome once again to investors edge with gary colpa welcome once again to investors edge by the way you know I'm a workout animal and I haven't really discussed it that much we were talking about it a lot I just added something to my repertoire

one of these you know heavy balls you know I'm talking about these heavy lifting balls and you pounce them on the ground and you throw them up into the air and stuff like that, I just added that, dang. When your body's not used to something and then you start doing that something, dang. I don't know what they call it.

Medicine balls, is that what they call them? I don't think this is really... It's one of those things you bounce on the ground. You throw it down, you bring it, you know, that type of stuff. I do squats with it. I do side drops to it, you know, and then I throw it up in the... Oh, my goodness.

You know where I got this from. On Instagram, I started following these guys that are just ripped the shreds. And, you know, I'm getting older. You got to work harder at it or else. Just so you know, every day that goes by once you get a certain age, if you don't work out, it's like two or three times as bad as you move forward because of metabolism. So that's my newest gig. Yay.

On top of the weights and all that crap. And I don't miss a day, just so you know. of some sort of working out. I mentioned Jeremy Grafton. Let me tell you what he's saying. He put out something called After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder. Now, before I mentioned what he said,

we know something that in order for him to be right, the S&P would first have to take out last week's low of 3885 and then the low of December of 3764. If that don't happen, he can't be right, right? Just remember, we're about price. If he's going to be right, days like today where you're down 300260 on the Dow and NASDAQ, don't reverse.

They end up down 6003.350. So no matter what we tell you, and again, we don't really talk about too many people, you know, just a few, Whatever we tell you, we're only going to pay attention what the market tells us. So let me go into what he said. He thinks the 2002 route left the most speculative gross stocks that led the market on the way up crushed, while a large chunk of total losses across markets that we expected to see a year ago have already occurred. He says it gets trickier from here while the downturn is wiped the most extreme froth off the market. Valuations remain well above long-term averages.

That's his thought process here. noting that in the past they have tended to overcorrect falling below their long-term trend line as fundamental deteriorate. Where would that leave stocks? He estimated that the trendline value of the S&P 500 adjusted upward for trendline growth and expected inflation will be around 3,200 by the end of 23. And you know, we don't predict at the end of the year, but we thought this guy's good. And we don't know if he's going to be right, but we'll know if he's or gets to be right. we just gave you the support levels. Drop the 3,200 mark another 17% fall for the S&P

and a drop around 20% fall for the year and a drop 20% for the S&P from here. Such an outcome wouldn't be the end of the world, but compared to GoD-Lox pattern of the last 20 years, pretty brutal. Let's see. He says the reason why we're getting a pause in the bare market is a variety of factors.

unrecognized and powerful presidential cycle, but also including subsiding inflation, the ongoing strength of the labor market, and reopening of the Chinese market. How significantly corporate fundamentals deteriorate will mean everything during the next 12 to 18 months. Anyway, we'll see. He was right about the bubbles, him and I. The bubbles went boom. Let me repeat. He can only be right if the S&P takes out next week, last week's third. 3885 and 3764 of December.

If those levels are not taken out, he cannot be right. You got that? So we'll continue to watch. And to be clear, if on the S&P, 4,040 gets taken out on the upside, that was Monday's high. That'd be good news. And if 4,100 gets taken out, which is November, December, that would be really, really even better news. And of course, that can happen. And then we go down.

We don't know. We're just going to play it day by day, little by little, piece by piece, inch by inch. And as always, close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. Okay, we've tried that. It does not work. Gold miners continue to inch higher. In fact, the gold miners moved above a little couple of two-week range today.

Very much a drift. the gold is still shaping up whatever that means silver has not silver needs to break out of the last few weeks range before we can even mention and as we said tomorrow's another day and we're getting past more and more earnings and we'll see how it goes as we stated some icky after the close and uh Tesla not even well by the way Tesla's down a whopping 50 cents as we speak which means the options players are not going to be very happy. Just so you know, there were big options bets that it was going to move up to 13% either way. They called it implied moves. That's not happening.

As of yet. Who knows what they say on conference calls? You know what Mr. Musk tends to. I don't want to use the word exaggerate, but anything he says. is put in italics and bold letters. And notice, no mention of the Fed. Yields are sitting at 3, 4, 6, 2 on the 50, on the 10 year. Do want to let you know if you wanted to buy a 1 year, it's 4-6.

If you want to buy a 2-year, it's 4-1. That's riskless. Not the worst thing in the world. And until tomorrow, I'll be on with Varney tomorrow. I'm not sure which hour. He's on from 9 to noon, so. can't help you yet. We'll post a tweet on our Twitter feed when we find out. But until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do.

It's quite simple. Make sure you exercise. Make sure you're ready to exercise. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. And until tomorrow's same time with this great radio show slash podcast, thanks for joining us. always appreciate you listening. Have a great one, everybody. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with a

unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.