Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - WICKED REVERSAL!

Episode Date: March 2, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. We're in March. It's March 2nd. See, I have to actually look at that to tell you. uh two thousand and twenty three and we're here to talk of everything that's everything everything that and may we state for the record what we do is not very easy i don't know if you know that what we do is not very easy we actually do a show five days a week here and the show

is guiding you through the daily moves in the markets? How do heck do you do that? Well, for us, I'd like to say it's simple, but it's not. It's simpler, more simple than when others do it. Why do we say that? Because we work in it. We focus on it. We live it and breathe it.

and through the years we have been able to, for lack of a better way to explain it, separate the shorter term moves from what we call the big picture moves to where when we say to you, bare market, it carries weight. Big downtrends carries weight, big uptrends. These are your strong leaders. These are the complete avoids. And then you get markets like we're in right now.

And I'm always asking myself, how the heck do I describe that? How do I describe just a day? Well, we figured out we do the day and then we do the big picture. And make sure you recognize good, bad, very good, very bad. And let me repeat again, it still ain't easy.

We have to deal with unbelievable amounts of noise. Today we got a little bit of noise that moved the market, I think. Maybe. Not sure. And you know what we mean by that, the people that just never shut up. and it's non-stop. It's daily. It's more than one. They conflict with each other. But again, when all is said and done, if we're just able to get the big picture right, the big picture, the main trends, and stay out of the ick, will be in good stead. But today was one of those days.

it's the best way I can put it. Today was those days where I don't even know how to describe except to say one of those big reversal days where there's actually two markets. There's actually two markets. The first half of the day and then the second half of the day. And on days like today, we always get the questions, what caused it? And you know what our answer always is? And it's not flimpant.

We don't care. And we really don't care. Because when all is said and done, we have this motto in the markets. It's not the news. It's how the market reacts to the news. And we could have given you one big reason why the market would not reverse today. Yields were up markedly. Market didn't care.

And what we simply think happened today, and we'll get into the minute, is that the market recent top was the second. of February and today we I think I think we hit a low at some very important support areas on what can consider it to be you can consider it to be somewhat of a washing out day where price was much lower and not only came back all the way but finished up pretty decently. But that is, again, today. The small picture. The big picture is the market is very mushy, very messy. There's some leadership, not a ton. I can think of a lot of reasons why we should go a lot lower, and they're pretty sound reasons. But we will let the market

decide that when all said and done. So I want to get going because I got a lot of territory to cover on news that matters to you, matters to me, and has everything to do with the economy, your job, the markets, everything in general. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it, Gary K. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. If you don't follow us on Twitter, you should. You just go to Twitter, put the name in.

Or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me at garyk.com. All you got to do is be nice. Disagree all you want. Disagree vehemently all you want. Just be nice. Because we'll be nice back. We do not suffer anybody.

who are, we're not going to use the word. Okay, the market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com.

The story was, not that the Dow was up 340, that's only 1%. The story was not that the S&P was up 30, which is only about 7 tenths of a percent. It's not that the NASDAQ was up 83, about three quarters of percent. It's not that NASDAQ 100 was up 106, which is about 9 tenths of a percent, give or take. It's not that the transports are up 275, but also it's not that on a day like that. The advanced declines are only 21 and change up, 18 down on the New York, and 23 up 19 down on the NASDAQ. And New Yearly lows led new yearly highs big time on the NASDAQ a little bit better on the New York.

What was really the story today? Well, the NASDAQ at one time today, and we kind of got the opposite of what we've been saying. The NASDAQ today was at 11273. at the low. 11273 was down like 110, finished up 83. We've had the opposite as of recent, where we'd open hot and sell off. Today we opened cold and got bought up. Now normally we would just say to you, okay, good reversal day. Normally we would say probably get some upside testing from here. But I got newsfea there's really nothing normal about anything in this market. But we do want to make note that in and around today's lows, and you'll just have to trust us to know what support and resistance look like, indices kind of touch some important support levels and bounced off of them. They're going to need to continue to hold them levels.

So good reversal day. Normally we would say to you, we're going to get some upside testing here maybe better who knows normally now one interesting scenario here 10 year yield 4.073 up point 79 today market's not supposed to go up on a day like that is the market telegraphing that maybe we've gone too far on the yield front maybe it starts coming down don't know all we can tell you we're just stating the facts big reversal day today at some very important support levels. What does it mean for tomorrow beats the heck out of me?

Up next, lots more. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And of course, with us saying to you,

The words I can think of a dozen reasons why the market should be a lot lower. Let me answer that before we get a few dozen questions on just that. Well, valuations are in the trees. Earnings. Stink. Interest rates are going higher. The central bank is raising rates. Savings rates have been plunging.

Credit card usage is skyrocketed. Monstrous inverted yield curve. Monstrous. The 10-year closed at 4.073 today. The 10-year. The three-month treasury bill is 4.86. What? The two-year yield, 4.889.

You ready for this one? the one year yield 5.03. Normally an inverted yield curve means we got a bad economy coming soon. So if you just added everything up, you'd be thinking yourself, holy crap, this thing has to go lower. This thing has to go much lower.

We'll let the market decide. You know, there's these two words of markets, conventional wisdom will just let the market decide the market will factor it all in remember we don't read opinions we read the market we don't care about opinions we care about the market we care about the market and we care about its historical precedent if I had a dime for every person I have watched say you guys to own the big tech. Yeah, we know it's bad right now, but of course they've been telling you to do it all the way down. They never change their stripes. But they haven't studied historical precedent

in that quite often through cycles, things change. And one of the things I don't think they recognize it's very tough to grow gargantuan companies and if by historical precedent we know great stocks are because they have great growth well if great companies stop growing they can still be great companies but their stocks can go dead if not worse and we have highlighted through for you throughout the years a a bazillion, very popular, well-known company names that just stopped dead in their tracks. We have a great memory. One of the things I learned a long time ago from William O'Neill was, I was always impressed when you asked him,

what do you think of this stock? He says, well, back in 1974, so-and-so stock looked exactly like this, and this was the fun. We wanted to basically be that person. So we've studied everything. And I always say to people, just ask me about any stock today. I'll tell you what it looks like. Not penny stocks, of course, but, you know, meaty stocks. And then there's the historical precedent.

Intel, my memory serves me well. because it was one of the five names that we were told just own it for life. By the way, WorldCom was another one, and Nortel was another one, and Lucent was another one. They went by the wayside. Intel is way down from 1999. And yeah, they got some problems. They didn't keep up. But that's part of the equation.

And then there are companies that just are gargantuan. It's just very tough to grow. I can go through a litany of names. Litany, big word. That have been dead money for a long time. Yet they're out there saying, own the big tech. So good news.

We think there's a decent good chance that in and around today, A low. The low is another story. We'll let the market throw some more cards out of the deck. But typically, lows will be put in with these washout days with the NASDAQ was down 110, finishes up 80. And things improved. And as I go through my scans, as I go through my scans, just finding a bunch of things right off support. That's all.

We'll see what tomorrow brings. Wicked day. The help in the Dow with Salesforce.com was up 19. They opened it up too high. It was 26. But $19 for one stock comes out to, we'll call it 120 Dow points. But then throughout the day, they bettered most everything else, almost, in the Dow. That gave rise to other things. the big question again.

It all happened. Hmm. It all happened on a day where yields are up big and as you know, yields up, mark it down. And a lot of it has been to the day. But a few times it took a week. So maybe the market saying,

rates may have hit a peak for now. Maybe. And there was also some other why on this today. Just going to mention some names. Simple ACLS. It's been a leading growth semiconductor name. Closed at 132 yesterday, hit 108 today. Closed at 129. What the heck does that mean? Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

that the crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, uh, simple ACLS was 132 to open the day. Went to 108 in the first half hour.

Closed it, I think, uh, 129 maybe. Yeah. What gives? Don't know. Had a couple of those today early in the morning. Tesla mentioned something about not using some sort of chip or whatever anymore, and Symbol AEHR did the same thing.

We'll cover that tonight in webcast. What would we have done if we owned it and we did not? And this is one of those stocks that we were very upset we did not own into today. Probably to pull my hair out early this morning. don't know how I would have handled it to be honest with you. But big picture. Yields up again today. Trend up.

Big picture. Messy. Big picture. S&P. We're going to just call it kind of sort of range bound now for months. NASDAQ types. Back into the high-end. of the range after breaking out of the range the Dow held support oh by the way the

others held some support today notice I didn't say anything about uptrends or bull markets because they're just trending now there's things that are better I can tell you high at hotels is it a new yearly high that's some strength So the job is to figure out where the leading and the laggards are. It's just few and far between. And as I read off the New Yearly High list to you, there hasn't been much. On another note, which has me just taken scratch in the forehead, regional banks are breaking down badly.

They're off the lows today, but still gross. a bunch of financials. You already know the areas that we tell you to avoid that are bearish. It's just a mixed bag of slop with some bullish stocks. With some bearish stocks and a heck of a lot of in-between. With a lot, as I said to you, man, if I just had to add up the things I'm seeing, I would say look out below. but we'll let the market decide.

Now, of course, I've said a few times, I expect eventually a bust. There's no doubt my mind we're going to have a bust. Massive debt, massive deficits, Marxists run in the country, out of control craziness, central bank that doesn't have a clue, we're just not there. Oh, and savings rates plunging and credit card usage skyrocketing. Stay tuned. It's going to be quite the interesting.

And as we've said to you, bare markets are easy. It's the counter trends, the kindest sort of recoveries that are a pain in the rear. And you know what you do then, you take your time. You know, I bought a one-year note today. I think I got 5.2% for somebody. They don't have to worry about the wiggles and squiggles of the markets. Not the worst thing in the world. In the news, I think I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll mention again.

Pimco saddled with $1.7 billion default in office market meltdown. Just letting you know. And of course, that has something to do with COVID. People not going back to office, but to be watched. In the news, beer drinkers. Beer drinkers cut back as Bud Brewer, A.B.N. Bev raises prices. The brewing giant reports unexpected fall in quarterly sales volumes. What's happening?

Price. For a while, the drinkers of beer were not giving up the brew, despite inflation and higher prices. Well, in the 12 weeks before Christmas, prices were climbed 10% higher than a year earlier. Guess what that did? So even the beer drinkers have their limitations. Interesting in the news. Lawmakers. You know our lawmakers, those people?

Interesting. Lawmakers call for broad U.S. probes of financial conflicts by federal officials. Two Democratic lawmakers called on the executive branch to root out financial. conflicts of interest among top government officials. Interesting. The letters were prompted by a Wall Street Journal investigation that found numerous instances in which top government officials held and traded the stocks of companies that they or their agencies were overseeing. Interesting. Maybe those lawmakers should not just be going to the agencies, but to themselves. Do you know how much crooked crap they've done?

done in D.C. that we would go to jail for, but them, they're good. They're disgusting. The things I read about these people and then investigate and find out it's true, disgusting. Campaigns paying the husband who created a company to market the campaign, millions of dollars, What do you call that? Oh, that's right. It's commonplace in D.C. In the news, one of our big calls when Rivian came public was that this thing's not worth $20.

And they brought it out, went to $170, had almost the market cap of GM and Ford that had $260 billion in revenues, but Rivian had none at the time. Now, Rivian has sales now, and they're growing. The stock has gone from 170 and closed today at $15.72. I just want to read some to you. Rivian, $6.4 billion cash burn might be a record for startups.

How does a company that has no sales able to burn $6.4 billion? will they go public at a ridiculous valuation. Rivian lost money on each car it's sold. How's that? How's that? How's that? Rivian has now halved its production guidance for 22, for 22,

and the company is now cut back where it can. But this is what we mean by. Wall Street sucks sometimes. They shouldn't have been public. They certainly shouldn't have been public at that valuation and where's the oversight on cash burn? There wasn't any. 6.4 billion dollars on a company that had no sales at the time. Interesting. And why we tell you, do some homework, do some investigating. We're always stunned. We're always stunned when people call me up that I don't know,

and should I buy this? And I ask them, what do they do? Oh, I don't know. Up next. This, that, and the other thing. And whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Speaking of another one of our big major gigantic calls of the past few years was that crypto was going to be destroyed.

We used the line 90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most going to zero. We set it to you dozens of times on this show and we set it on TV. we also went on to say that any business having to deal with crypto or inventing, vented for crypto, would see their stocks destroyed. We also told you that criminals would be found out at the end of the road because that's what always happens in bubbles. We have highlighted for you, Coinbase. The day it came public, it was, I try to think it was the week of April 15th tax week in 2021. The stock amazingly, stunningly, comes public. Couldn't believe it.

It was on April 14th, a $250 deal. on the IPO, a $250 deal gave it a, what was it a $50 billion market cap? I try to think it was $50 billion. Yeah, $2 billion. Yeah, I'd say $50 billion. The stock hit $429 that day, closed at $3.28. And we said that day, oh, this is going to be a 75% or. Stock closed at 63 today.

and of course Coinbase was invented to trade crypto. Robin Hood. Oh, we warned about that one. Why? Because we found out that

most of the trading was in crypto. Hit a high of 85. It's nine. But one of the names I think I probably only mentioned one or twice. Silvergate cap symbol SI provides financial infrastructure solutions and services for the digital currency industry. Hit a high of 239. Today was down 57% to $5.72.

What would be the news that would make a stock? Do that. Well, they got problems. they are valuating whether they can continue as a going concern. By the way, it got downgraded to a hold from a buy today. I'm not going to mention the company to embarrass them. Sometimes all you have to do is just one plus one equals two. And of course, there are other stocks. And you just have to remember, just be careful.

Be careful. Wall Street didn't help, obviously. They're changing buy to hold today. We help ourselves. If you haven't read the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, you should get it. It will remind you of everything we have seen over the last two years.

And that is, buy it any price, no matter what, because it's on the move. And we just wanted to mention this again today. We haven't done too much crypto lately because it's been dead. Because this symbol, SI, showed up down 57% today, and they're possibly going to go out of business. We want you to remember this. Why? It's going to happen again.

We don't know what entity it's going to be. We don't know what asset's going to be. We don't know if it's going to be beanie babies. Beats the hell out of us. It's going to happen again. Because the emotions of fear and greed and the extremes they go to never go away. It's the nature of the beast. Your job is to harness it.

Because if you don't, there's going to be a hell of a lot of money to lose the next time. We have big bubbles. And by the way, in just the last three months, there have been stocks that went insane to the upside, and what's our motto? They're all going to go back where they came from. They went back to where they came from quickly.

The latest one is some of these artificial. intelligence. And maybe it's going to be the biggest thing since yodels. Yodels are really good. And devil dogs. Devils are really good. Just don't buy dollar bills with $20 bills. Simple as that. Don't take out a $20 bill and buy a dollar bill. Don't jump over dollars and end up dimes. You will get no help from Wall Street the next time it happened. you do realize how they were touting and shouting all this stuff while we were pleading Miami coin down 98%. They ain't talking Miami coins anymore. We don't think it's over yet. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. Good reversal today. Can't wait to do my scans.

When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better. I promise. I do not know if I have TV tomorrow, but we will be back for radio. Make sure you have a good evening. Make sure you exercise, take care of yourself. And until tomorrow, y'all peace out. Thanks for joining us. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Thank you.