Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Winds changing!

Episode Date: October 5, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. Last I looked at it's October 5, 2000 and 23, it would be a Thursday. hope you're having a good day as always a bunch to cover serious talk on you and everything that affects you and man oh man there's a lot affecting you on you your job the markets your money the economy and all points in between you know i've been getting a lot of emails from portland residents and every one of them is so upset with what's going on in Portland with the DA and the crime and all that stuff. I got Newsfea peeps. You're not alone. I don't know where it happened, how it happened, but you got a bunch of people that are out to protect the

criminals more than the citizens. Did you read? Did you read? about the murder in New York City. This young couple was sitting on a bench 4 a.m. They were coming from wedding. And it turns out this man was one heck of a good man, an activist,

helping out with community. And some guy walks past them and walks 20 feet past them and then starts kicking over scooters and walks back towards the man. He says, what are you looking at? He said, nothing. Everything's cool. And the guy starts screaming and yelling, chill, chill, chill, he said, just knifeed them to death.

It turns out the guy was arrested 16 times. How many times do you have to be arrested before they keep you in there? And by the way, some of the arrests were for attacking. Will it take one of these DAs for his or hers, own family to get the crap beat out of them or, God forbid, knife to death for them to recognize you're supposed to protect the citizens, not the criminals. And I'm sure you're all seeing what's going on with the shoplifting in some cities. Wow.

Unbelievable. And then the cities wonder why the companies are leaving and shutting the retail stores. If I was the owner of the retail stores, I'd walk up to the mayor and say, up, yours, kick them in the grapefruits, it's a man. Can't touch a woman if it's a woman. But I mean, that's what's going on. I just want to start with that because I've been getting a lot of emails from Portland. The good people listening to a great radio station there.

And I haven't been in Portland in a while. I loved it when I visited there a couple of times. KBNP radio. And we always thank them for, we've been on. the air with them many a moon 1410 we wish everybody well all right ladies and gentlemen with this show i remember many many years ago when i started going on fox news one of the things one of the producers says to me was never even mentioned the dollar never mentioned the currencies said why well because ratings will go down aboard a hell out of people and a lot of people and a lot of people

won't understand and you know there's a lot of things in my industry that are above my head I don't know I don't know what a quick ratio is well you know what I mean so we try to keep it to the point where we actually say to you let me simplify things but sometimes I have to go a little bit into the weeds and we just hope we explain it correctly for you to understand where we're coming from. So two things today. How markets work, we have an ability to measure sentiment in the markets. Now, what does that mean?

It's just how do the masses feel, how are they reacting to the markets? it's the best way I can put it and when these sentiment indicators go to extremes very often you get a change of complexion now what do we mean by that go to extremes well

if the market's in real bad shape if you're going through a bare market of whatever entity it may be bond stocks commodity and you keep going lower and you keep going lower and you keep going lower and you keep going lower. And then the national media starts reporting on it finally, after it's already way down, that is sentiment,

that is the mainstream media, finally getting on board to what we already know. That's what we mean. It's an extreme. Simple as that. Another way of looking at it, sentiment-wise, there is an option market. This is people betting on whether something's going to go up or down with the use of options. And what an option is, and go read up what an option is, but it just gives you the right

to buy or sell something at a certain price at a certain time. that's all. And when the buying or selling of these options go to an extreme one way, it also often is a change of complexion. One of the great extremes of all time that I've seen was 08. Everybody was worried about the financial system going to hell in a handbasket. I went to my bank and took out 25 grand in cash and put it in the safe in my house. That's how bad it got back then. And a few months later, the market bottomed.

So as you know, we've had a bond market bare market. Bonds have been sold off, interest rates have spiked. That's how it works. In case you don't know, you're buying a bond. That gives you a certain yield. That bond will go up and down. If the bond goes down, the yield goes up on anybody buying the bond at a lower price, and vice versa. So I'm setting the stage for a couple of things for you.

Because I think we had two extremes today. It does not mean the playing field will change. I just wanted to report them to you. and let's together see if things changed. So for starters, number one, the national media and journalists are now reporting about the collapse in treasury bonds, one of the worst in history.

They're now reporting it. After yields have gone from zero to five percent, they're now reporting it. How do I know? Because I see it. In fact, do you know what the Drudge report is? I don't go on it often, but it's an aggregator of news. On the right side is the first article.

Collapsing Treasury bonds now ranks among worst market crashes in history. Being reported by Bloomberg. Oh, thanks. Well, excuse me, by the markets insider, whatever the hell that is. And then underneath, Fed's bid to avoid recession tested by yields nearing a 20-year high. That's on a guy named Rich Miller Bloomberg. Really? Now you're telling us?

So we're letting you know that is going towards an extreme sentiment of the reporting. You know we used to have this thing called and we still do the front cover. Whenever somebody gets on the front cover of a mainstream magazine from the markets, It usually mean a turn. That's happened before. So we're just starting and letting you know. I'm just wondering if they're going from nothing to up to near 5% on the 10-year. The shorter term paper is 5.5.

I think one went to 5.7. Now they're reporting it. I'm wondering if we're going to get some relief in bond soon. That's all. Write that down. Your handsome and buffed host is. wondering whether that's going to be indicative of bond relief up next. What else?

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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5559. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands. Thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next.

Next, dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So now we go to the other part. The options. We found out today that people better. on prices going down on the market spike to levels pretty much seen near terms in the market after they've already dropped so imagine we've already dropped a bunch we have highlighted for you tons and tons and tons of stuff that have

broken down all kinds of areas that have been just absolutely blasted and now they're buying the hell out of options, betting on further price decrease? Well, that is often a sign that things may turn. Sentiment. Go into an extreme. Now, you obviously need stocks set up to go higher. I'm not so sure we have that. Because as I do my scans every day, it looks like crap. today. And by the way, I thank my good friend Gil Morales, who will be on the show again real

soon. He's the one who posted it. That's how I'm able to report it to you. When he posted it, I think the Dow was down 150, NASDAQ was down 100. The Dow only finished down 9, the NASDAQ 16. Hmm, we'll see. Though the NASDAQ 100 was still down 53. That wasn't. so good. So we're just letting you know there's some sentiment coming in that all the suns bearish after a drop that often gets close, maybe marks a point. But I repeat, if you don't have good looking stuff, if you don't have things that look like they can go topside, get going. It's kind of sort of probably all for not.

We'll be watching. The market still looks like the south end of a northbound jackass. Leadership, pretty much nil. New highs, hardly any, new lows a lot. There's a few names that stick out. I can put them on one hand. And interesting enough, as I

scan while I do this radio show because we're so talented, we can do two things at once. It just looks crappy out there. I don't have much. So if things are going to get better, I don't know if this makes any sense. If they are to get better, they're going to need to get better. There's going to have to be some serious improvement in this market. Serious, because as I scan, ew. Is ew a word?

Ew? That's the best word I can come up with. Ew. So today's market wrap, Dow down 9, down 10. Was down, I should tell you how much it was down early, right? At one point today, the Dow had hit 32-941, 159-1. 159, 17. It was down 187, finished only down 10. The NASDAQ at one time today, 13087, was down 148,

finished only down 16. The NASDAQ 100 today hit 14584, 116, 13, 139, was down 192, finished only down 53. NASDAQ 100, not so good today. The socks was down 18, transport, still finished down 47. Advanced declines were a little bit negative on the New York, flat on the NASDAQ. Bond market down a wee bit on the 10-year yield. And oil prices down another buck in three quarters today, which is excellent. Interesting enough, oil stocks, a bunch of them were up to.

even though oil prices came down. But I do have to repeat. With me talking the sentiment as I do my scans, ew, it is just ugly out there. And just remember sentiment. They call sentiment a secondary indicator. And it is. Primary is price and pattern.

And we read that very well. So I'm not willing to say, hey everything's great and as I do scan more and more stocks were breaking down today so we did get a little bit of a kick save

into the end of the day still just ew and just so you know soon we head into earnings season in a meaningful fashion I heard somebody predict good earnings today

I love people who predict Do you ever hear us say, oh, we think earnings are going to be, no. You know, we do say, we'll wait for them to come out, we'll see who beats the pants off of earnings reports and have the strongest earnings and revenue growth with the best reactions. Measure the market and hoping it's good and see what we can do from there. And find those companies that are growing their business way better than everybody else. and avoid the stink shops.

And boy, there's some stink shops. Man, oh man, there's some stink shops. So that's how we roll. Little news of the day. A little comedy act of the day. And of course, coming out of the White House. It's the funny, it's sad, actually. Joe Biden's going to build a wall.

So they spent two plus years making fun and having the pundits out there making fun of walls. Joe Biden's going to build a wall. No, not kidding. I'm not making it up. He's putting up a wall. They blasted Trump for a wall,

made fun of his wall, and Trump BSed on the wall too about how much got done. But now Joe Biden is putting up a wall. It's so funny to watch the worst president of all all time. Oh, but Gary, the job market, the GD. There's so many more things you can put into it.

He has taken over the last guy as the worst president of all time. Gary, Donald Trump, had great policy. He's taken over him as the worst president of all time. To me, there's plenty of components to that. And that's okay. By the way, I got some emails from Trump people. That'll be up next. That's my music. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 20. percent off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process. simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So I have been getting emails from people who are in Trump's camp.

And the good news is everybody's being respectful of the fact that I've been ripping them a little bit. Again, I respect all opinions out there. won't stand in the way of your opinions. Hopefully you don't stand in my way. We lost all love and affection. We've lost all love and affection for any of these people. That's all. It doesn't make us bad people.

But they've proven us right. They've proven us right. I was on with Stuart Varney today, and I said that what they've been able to do. to do is make 9 billion of our tax dollars a footnote. Joe Biden is forgiving $9 billion of student loans. Just so you know, he doesn't forgive it, it's us. It's the taxpayer. And they've made $9 billion a footnote. And do you know what $9 billion represents less than the debt we are going to put in for the next two days? Joe Biden now is averaging $5 billion a day added to our debt.

debt, he should be impeached for that. If I was in the House right now, if I was in that position, I would file articles of impeachment on his $2 trillion of debt. That's irresponsible buffoonery. He should not be the president. Janet Yellen should not be our Treasury Secretary. She's not protecting our Treasury. She sucks. She's a horror show. What else? in the news. Well, Disney may be listening to this radio show. Because

we said a while ago how many times we've been on this show saying we're amazed that their numbers of people that show up to the parks have stayed so big they've been falling off recently

though. That if you add up the cost, the car, For Disney, they're... Wow! Disney is now slashing the price of children's tickets to as low as $50 at its domestic-themed parks. As little as $50 each for Disneyland and Disney World. Now, only right now can be used between January 8th and March 10th, but it's for children 3 to 9. And I can promise you there's a lot of 3 to 9.

there. You know what this means? The dye has been cast. Disney's going to do some more lowering of prices going forward. Bob Eiger warned. He said that they went too far. Now, to what extent I don't know, but I expect price cuts across the board. and I think it's a smart move and a wise move while they hike their streaming. By the way, everybody's hiking the prices on streaming right now. Everybody's hiking their prices on streaming. What else in the news I had mentioned to you those extremes?

Right? Well, here's another one. You're ready for this one that one just will make me vomit? Because you know what we've been talking about forever? right? Wall Street Journal. A gentleman by the name of Greg Ip. IP. He's a journalist. Headline.

Rising interest rates mean deficits finally matter. Investors ignored deficits when inflation was low. Now they are paying attention and getting worried. Well, obviously, Mr. Ipp hasn't been listening to this show. But this is what we mean by now they're reporting the crap. There is no greater crisis. There is no worse train coming down the track

than what these politicians have done with our treasure. And now it's going to be in fast motion. No longer is the train Amtrak. It's not an Amtrak train anymore the amount of debt and deficit. You know what it is? I'm putting up the word because I went to Japan. I believe it's called the Shikansen.

That's their bullet train. And by the way, it was great. Our debt is a bullet train going north. Skyrocketed that fast. And I pray. Well, I don't pray for this. There are other things like. I hope you just have to wonder, do yields have to go to 10% to account for this sickness?

And when I mean sickness, these people in D.C. Remember, economics 101, 102 and 103, the more debt an entity has, the more lenders want to be paid and yield to account for that debt. It's simple as that. economics 101 i'm watching people on they all got it wrong they're all saying stuff oh inflation this inflation i got news for you you know what else they don't tell you about inflation that we tell you you see the rate of inflation's come down but prices haven't remember if the price of something inflation when inflation was out of hand went from two bucks to 220 went up 10 percent but now this year it's only up 3%. Oh, it's going to be 220 something. So inflation is still up there.

So we'll see. You know where we stand. By the way, when we talk to about how narrow the market has been, you ready? The Russell 2000 this year is down 1.7%. The Dow is down 1 tenth of a percent. The mid-cap 400 is only up 2 tenths of a percent. the NASDAQ's up 26.3%. You take out those seven names and the NASDAQ is in the mid-single digits. And I'm not so sure it's that high. That's how narrow it's been. And that's why, let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen,

I watch those seven stocks. They are right at the top of my screen like a hawk. Because if they ever take them out, look out. And let me give you a little name and a little number. FNGS, you know what that is? It's the Fang Index they follow. It's 32 and a quarter. If it breaks 31, major top in place.

If it breaks 31 major top in place. And it's held up like a rock in comparison. It's still not about 11% from the highs. But in comparison with the average stock, It's a tiptoe through the tulips. Stay tuned. What are the things I'm seeing today? I have to tell you.

One of the most hyped and touted area of the market a year ago was the solars. They crashed. The solar stocks have crashed. And that's why we always tell you, it's okay to listen to hype. Pay attention to your stocks. That's how it goes. We're also watching retail. acting continuously horrible.

And today they ripped the stuffings out of the auto dealers. Things like auto nation, lithium, lithium motors, Penske Motors, Group 1 auto, big top in place. So the auto dealers under pressure. And I'm hearing things like trouble at the auto dealers. By the way, do you know use cars are almost as expensive? I was reading, oh, excuse me, that was the houses. That houses already here have almost higher price than new ones.

It's quite the insanity. Quite the distortions brought to you by a guy named Jay Powell, who still has his job, which is quite amazing. Up next, this, that, and the other thing. of whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One. Change. Ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. You know, I was so busy today. I can't wait to watch tonight.

I can't imagine. I can't imagine them go. Even the left's got to be going after Joe Biden and pissed off about, he's going to build a wall. God, I love people. boy are they letting us down my oh my I can I you know what

I may have to turn on TV What's today Thursday Normally I just turn on the big bank Theory Seinfeld or the office And if professional wrestling's on That's how I roll these days Thrilled yet

We have a lot of clients We manage a decent amount of money We're not the biggest We're not the smallest And we never do mention that, but we want to just bring a couple of things up. For you, there is nothing wrong with getting 5% on your money riskless. The goal in what we do is to make a lot more than that. But we're just letting you know.

And if you are at a bank, I want you to call your bank and make sure you are in money markets and not just the bank savings. Because the banks suck. You got that? They suck. They have you in two-tenths of a percent savings. And the question is, have they called you to tell you that money markets are paying 5 percent? Have they called you to tell you that CD rates have skyrocketed?

I want to know. If they haven't, they suck. If they have, good on them. So I just want to let you know. And we haven't been here in a very long time because of one man, Jay Powell, nauseating. Make sure you're getting your yield because I'm getting people calling telling me I have money in the bank. First question, what are you in? Don't know.

They go check. I'm in the savings thing. How much they paying two-tenths or one percent? case closed so please do your due diligence right now your riskless income investments should be working for you in a big big way right now in comparison to when god took over and decided to screw aunt mary and uncle bob with zero percent interest rates handing that money over to the banks and lenders well that worm is turned and make sure you're getting your just.

That's the market. That's market rates. And of course, you can go down the chain and latter things. You can get a six-month, one year, two-year, five-year, and right now, these short-term interest rates are paying more than long-term. They call it the inverted yield curve, which supposedly 100% of the time has presaged bad economic growth. hasn't happened yet. Oh, we think that train's coming down the track.

And remember what we have told you. If we lose the job market, look out. Look out. And that's always the last thing to go. And so far, God bless it, it's held up pretty darn well. In the last couple of months, we're starting to see a little bit of rocky. but if we lose it, it'll start feeding on itself. It'll worsen. And that's why we've had shows where we have said to you, make sure you make yourself the most important person at your firm

if you're an employee, that you are the last person to ever get canned. If your company decided to go on one of those. We got rid of get rid of some people because demand has dropped. Make yourself one of those people. Work harder than the next one, smarter than the next one, put more time in if you have to than the next one. That's how it works, just so you know. companies will not let go the people they definitively need. Those will be the last people to go. The first people to be gone, what do they call them, slackers? I hope you listen to that because if we do get into a downturned jobs, that's how it rolls.

Simple as that. And I'm not so, well, let's just say this. I think we're getting closer. I think we're getting closer. And as I said to you, one of the signs, California just went from 3-8 to 4-6, and usually the rest of the country follows. Hope that's wrong. Hope the job market stays strong for a very long time.

The worst thing that can happen is jobs lost. It's the worst possible scenario. So again, make yourself the go-to person. at your firm. The most dependable, hardworking, smartest working, and make sure they know it. And you'll be in shape. All right, tomorrow I should be on with Neil Cavuto,

new now or Fox Business Network. Check it out. And until tomorrow, you'll have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better, you will feel better, I promise. Have a great night, everybody.

Thanks for joining. Peace out. Stay well. Be well. Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero shape thanks to four times more stretch

than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel.

credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.