Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Withering jobs [09.05.2025]

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up

and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kalbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday. It is September 5th, 2025. Hope you have a good day. Hope you all going to have a good weekend. as always lots to cover

and sometimes our lots to cover is based on the emails we get and today we got quite the few on one subject and we will get to it in a couple of minutes in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you we'll do markets the economy your job your industry

the job market it and everything else that matters. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com, we'll post on our X feed and the podcast apps in the BizTV YouTube channel. And if you like to email me, just be nice.

All you got to do is be nice. We'll be nice back. Well, so every now and then, something perks up and we get a bunch of emails on one subject and today was the job market. So I guess you all are watching things closely and watching the tube or listening to the radio that the jobs number came in pitifully, very poor. and it's not just this number, the trajectory has been slower and softer. And you already know this because we have been telling you it's been softer out there.

To what extent, we're not sure. You never know. But I want to put a few things to you and we're going to be blunt as usual and probably piss off some people. Because, you know, you got one side that loves this side. and the other side that loves this side. And as we told you, we don't give a crap about sides. We give a crap about policy and we give a crap about outcome. And I don't know why more people don't do what we do.

And that is get away from the love and the personality. You know, I know we love our bands and certain actors and actresses and certain celebrities and certain restaurants and the type of food. you like. You really shouldn't be loving leaders that have taken us the 37 trillion of debt and are guaranteeing two trillion in deficits every year going forward. You should be caring about policy. And it's okay to like some policies, love some policies, and hate other policies. But no, what we have unfortunately, and not everybody, is, just no matter what we are going to take that person's side. And what we're just trying to tell you is,

no, it should not be that way. So, jobs have been going south. And here's a few thoughts for you, agree or disagree. Hey, it's our opinion. So as you know, the president fired. the woman who was running the Bureau of Labor Statistics person on the last jobs number was very weak and said the numbers were rigged. Well, the numbers were not rigged. That was a lie. That is a president being upset about a jobs number. I can tell you, we loat the president on something like that, but there's not much we can do about it. He replaced that woman with somebody else. Well, another job's number came out. And before it came out, the White House actually made a statement about the way the numbers are being done.

They were making excuses so already knew the jobs number would be poor. And it was. It was weak. revisions have been weak also the president has been out and trying to defend it they had what's his name Kevin Hassett out and I got to tell you

they got to stop wee wheeing down our back and telling us it's raining today he said the number was bad because of the Bureau and Labor Statistics That's the new thing. Everybody's screwing them. Everybody's rigging the numbers.

Everybody's trying to make them look bad. No, the job market is soft. And instead of blaming others, maybe, just maybe, they should look to themselves and maybe some of the things they're doing are not very smart. Maybe. Just maybe.

You see, we have been telling you, that the tariffs were going to have a negative effect because they are tax hikes. And every time they come out and say, we collected $25 billion this month, brought in $25, no, they did not bring in $25 billion. We paid taxes. and due to the fact the administration has said all long and promoted themselves on tax cuts that tax cuts are good, tax hikes are bad, well, why are they hiking taxes?

Interesting, huh? Think about that. So we've been telling you they're not good. Tax hikes will have a dampening effect on the economy. Of course, they're blaming J. Powell for not lowering rates, but as we have told you, Jay Powell's maybe a half point behind it most. If he dropped the half point, it's not going to create a job. It would be a no big deal thing.

So blame everybody else but yourself. And we're just letting you know it is our opinion that it is a lot of the tariffs doing the job. Soften things up. having companies, businesses, big, small, medium, why would I hire? I don't know what my expenses are going to be next week, next month, in a year from now. So I've got to take a step back. And yet, maybe AI could be part of this. I don't think so, really, though.

I think AI is going to create jobs. so the number was soft I believe we're through some sort of a cycle at this point but huge tax hikes have a dampening effect and for all of you that love the man maybe you want to

message him and say to him well they railed against Kamala Harris wanting to raise taxes on everything why are you raising taxes on everything and to be clear that's exactly what they're doing And then there's the other part of the tariffs. The other part.

The constant changing of the numbers, the countries, and the products. Constant. When you have a moment, there are websites that actually have all the movements. It's almost insanity. insanity and it's not just trade it's because he likes or dislikes Brazil 50% because they're mean to the ex-president it's insanity India because they're buying oil from somebody he doesn't like it's insanity and when he puts a tariff on he's putting a tax on you well wait a minute I'm not

pay and it's the company. Maybe the consumer gets passed on to it. Oh, it's all of us because of the dampening effect of the economy. We have said to you on this show under no uncertain terms, we hope we're wrong. We want to be wrong. We said to you the other day, we'd love to be a year from now out. They collected, what, 250 billion in tariffs and we're growing 3.5% and we're 200,000 jobs being created every month. We'd love that. I'll be glad to come out on this show and say to you, I was wrong. But the history of big tax hikes, it's a dampening effect. And by the way, this is inclusive on the maniacal $2 trillion deficits that this president's now going to run and had a chance to do something about. So there's my answer to all the email.

and it was a rough day for some things, but not such a rough day for others. We'll explain up next on this, the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology.

It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. At CVS, it matters. that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, ORAIDA, silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So before we get to the numbers, let's. Let's narrow it down. Let's narrow it down. You're a business that is not a gargantuan business, not a mega-cap business, but you're a business that does $25 million a year.

And what do you do? Let me pick out a one product company. You sell snow globes. snow globes and these snow globes are not making the made in the united states nobody makes snow globes in the united states by the way we're making that part up i don't know we're just giving you an example so i have to get my snow globes from norway and i've been paying for each snow globe 10 bucks and then I have to pay for

shipping insurance people to unpack and my total cost is 15 and I sell those snow globes how about 22

actually I doubt snow globes are 22 but we're doing this as an example. Well, what happens if there's a 25% tariff? Well, the company that buys these things for $10, now buys them for $10 and then sends $2.50 to our treasury as a tax on each snow globe. What does that do to that business?

well, you may buy less. You may have to get rid of a few people because you're not making as much money. You're going to try and figure out how to make them here so you don't have to pay the tariffs, but that always takes time, right? You're going to try and talk to your supplier. Hey, will you do us a favor? Can you eat a buck of that? and that supplier may or may not say okay

and then what happens just for the sake of whatever the president gets mad at the king of Norway and now it says 50% tariffs well all of a sudden you are paying five bucks each snow globe why would you stay in business if you're not really making any money but then the president changed

changes his mind three weeks later and goes back to 25. Please, Mr. President. Stop. Can you just tell me what the number is? And then he goes down to 10. Oh, thank you, Mr. President. Oh, then he goes back up to 25. There's my example for you.

And that is a fair assessment about what's been going on since April. Oh, but Gary, the market's been going up. Terrific. You know why? Because America is fantastic. everybody's working hard to do well for themselves and their families. Doesn't the president get credit for that? Well, as my father always said, who's ever running the show gets the credit.

So yeah, okay, the president gets the credit for that, fine and dandy. But what about the job market? Because, to be clear, if the job market continues to wane, the economy will continue to wane if the economy continues to wane consumer spending will wane if that occurs profits will wane and then the economy

you get into some trouble we're not saying that's going to happen we're just outlining things for you because just this week just last night the president said something about tariffs on semiconductors and frankly

I thought that was already out there so I don't know what to tell you that's the story it's a fair assessment I'm rooting for him I'm going to try and get in touch with them and get a sit down with him.

As I do believe, I am one of the preeminent smart people on these tariffs. And he should be listening to me. And this whole thing about, this whole thing about, oh, and this is what the president said, if they don't let me tariff the world, we're going to become a third world country.

Now we know that's a lie. It's hyperbole. We expect that from the lefty nuts. We don't want that from the Republican side. But that's what the president said this week. And I'm quoting him. And to be clear, that's sheer insanity. Yeah, third world country.

In other words, again, don't, wee, wee down my back and tell me it's raining. We'll never be a third world country unless you tariff us to death. That's my take. And I am going to try to get a sit down with this administration. I don't know if it's the president or maybe I can get something with the Treasury Secretary. We'll see. And I'm serious about that because I have news for you.

these are unforced errors they're unforced errors they're absolutely unforced errors they are not a necessity in any way shape or form and that's my big take

now the market made a very nice accounting of itself yeah I'm going to tell you the Dow was down 220 yeah I'm going to tell you the banks were weak, but the market made a very good accounting for itself besides a few areas. Some retail was weak, travel was weak, but up next, we'll talk to you about what wasn't

weak. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. But I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago,

they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process,

because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smarttalks. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters.

So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, or aida, silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian,

Meets and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. I'm highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. How about that for a big dissertation?

And by the way, Walmart's been raising prices. Prices are going up in different things. And it may not show up in the inflation numbers because I believe real inflation comes from the central bank via Jay Powell. You know what he did. We'll keep you apprised.

Anyway, so the banks were weak. yields were way down why would the banks be weak the only thing I can come up with is that if the long yields come down the less they can lend at higher yields that's my that's what I think not a hundred percent sure but that's a good one plus one equals two insurance stocks were down transports were mixed but let me tell you the strength because the 10-year yield dropped a 4.086 today, which is good news. And oil prices dropped over, but good news. Interest rate sensitive, the housing, the housing related.

We've been telling you about that every single day. They were in a bare market until a few months ago. And once the interest rates started getting a little bit better, and once the thought of the Fed finally, Well, they have been doing nothing but doing the opposite what it did for good six, seven, eight months. So the housing related and not just the home builders, but a floor and decor, pool ink, restoration hardware, home depot, those types. What else did well? Well, you've got to go back to earnings. Broadcom finished up 28 today, though it was up 50.

So off the highs, but I don't see that as much of a big deal. It's a good move. And I guess they said something about how many? So the equipment makers that got hit so hard because applied materials strong today. ASML up 28, they got upgraded. Applied materials, the weakest of the rest, up 4.5 to 162. K-L-A-C that got trashed up 32 today. By the way, yesterday was up 34.

So 66 bucks in two days. About 7%. And Lamb Research. Micron was up 7 today. Taiwan semi-up 8. So guess what the semiconductors did? Boom, shot back up above the 50-day moving average of import. So that was good off of Broadcom.

You also had these electronic manufacturer, whatever, whatever, and that's because of something Broadcom said about what needs are and stuff. Celestica opened up 36 bucks today to 257, finished only up 21 but still a good move. Still a good move. And then you had recent names that we told you were setting up well. Reddit, CRDO, and others all had a pretty good day today. And, you know, I haven't mentioned these, and I probably should have.

Hospital stocks. HCA breaks out. to a new yearly high today. Tenet Health Care, THC, New Yearly High today. United Health not as strong. Universal Health, excuse me. So let's talk about, so the hospitals, you had some better action today in some economically sensitive?

Wait a minute. If the job market's weak, how is economically sensitive? How is Home Depot? Interest rates coming down. They really are a defining force. Notice I'd even say, Jay Powell, the 10-year yield has been coming down nicely in the last few days. And you can bet your bottom dollar, the Fed will be cutting rates. What is it?

September 17th. And may I say, who knows? may be a half. And markets love easy money. Markets love easy money. Unless we're in a protracted contraction, which we're not. We're in a slowdown. Now, GDP may be better than the job market, but government spending. Do not forget that. This administration had one. hell of a chance to do something about Biden and his ridiculous government spending. And this administration gave us that certain finger. And we have told you that before.

And that is unfortunate also. But that doesn't surprise me as much. And yeah, it pisses me off, but I can't be that pissed off because it's expected. Politicians love big government because it helps out GDP. and that's something. There are not going to be any heroes. We'll go to $50 trillion and $60 trillion. When I'm dead, we'll be at $100 trillion.

Where and when it blows up, I don't know. I would have thought it blow up at $20 trillion. I would have thought it would have blown up at $25 trillion. $30 trillion. 35 trillion. We're at $37 and we are going up fast. What did I tell you yesterday? Here it is. This is from August 25th.

Over the last 48 days, the federal debt has surged $1 trillion or $21 billion per day. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. But the market don't care. So even with the Dow down 220 today, I thought it was except for the banks. Gold.

Another strong day. Full-blown, bullish phase in gold. And I said two days ago, probably going to pull back, it lasted a day. And why would gold go up today? Because as interest rates go down, the dollar gets weak. And as the dollar gets weak, gold goes up. And that was the story of today. But I want to repeat something.

Considering the banks were crappy. considering that the underbelly not bad notwithstanding the few areas that were not that great and that was the story we're in quieter earning season September has not been so bad I was impressed today by some stocks that were down big early that finished better by the end of the day The growth arena Looks okay It was actually a pretty good day For the growth arena

And by the way Things were much worse early Market opened hot Much worse early The Dow at one point today 45-211 or 2 was down about 400 The NASDAQ at one time today You ready for this?

21534 was down 170 finished only down 7 So I'm definitely not a bear And these growth names are really setting up well And these housing related names Go look at simple pool today Not a leader But look at two days up

Off of two days down Of the 10 year yield Go look at restoration hardware Two days up From two days down two days down of the 10-year yield. Go look at the XHB and the ITB. That's the housing-related.

Look at those two things up, off of yields down. Simple story. Up next. What else we got for you? I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata.

we discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. building actual physical machines.

Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CBS. is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack.

At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points.

Look for in-store tags. to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, aura Ida, silk, caprison, Bavarian meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings

when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Colpaw. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Can we have a weak job market without recession contraction? Yeah. Not too weak. The consumer they'd say is like 70 some odd percent of the economy. Guess what happens when people lose jobs?

with their spending. They tend to spend less. So that'll be something of note as we go forward. But I just want to make a point again of what we've told you. We don't have TDS. We have complimented him on many of things. And we wish him well. And we want him to do great things. But by my own rules, higher taxes is not a good thing. A few other notes. Well, it's in real time. I am being told that possibly Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City who's up for re-election,

and there's all this worry about who's going to run New York City. And normally I wouldn't talk about a mayoral election, but it is New York City, has an announcement to make. I guess he's going to make it sometime this afternoon. We're expecting the announcement to be he's going to drop out of the election in order to help somebody else win, and he supposedly cuts some sort of deal with the administration on an ambassadorship or something like that in order to get out.

When you have a chance, go look at that news. That's interesting. Let me be clear. You can't have a communist run New York City. And to be clear, not only he's a communist, he's a con artist. His whole campaign is a lie. He's now telling you all these things that he's not. his whole life has been based on certain principles

and all of a sudden he is dropping all those principles in advance of his campaign can't have that not in New York City so I'm watching that very closely because I repeat it's New York City going into next week there's just the slew

of growth stock setting up and I am emboldened by the semiconductors as a whole getting back above the 50 day and a very strong move today in something like a micron a Taiwan semiconductor

not saying we're buying them but in order to go higher as we have said to you certain things have to happen number one is you got to get back above the 50-day moving average and they did it well and with strength. Also, some of these contract manufacturers, I mentioned CLS, there are others, very, very strong. So in spite of what happened today with banks with MasterCard and Visa, The transports are still blah, as well as some other areas.

I think there's opportunity going into the end of the year. And I say this with Microsoft. Kind of breaking down. NVIDIA. Kind of breaking down. Nvidia. Invita and the semiconductors were strong today. We'll be watching.

I've always wondered for the last months who's going to come after NVIDIA and how much they do and how much they make in this talk. There's actual talk that others are having inroads. We'll see. Other names we're watching. Apple and Google offer that news. Not just really the news, but the reaction was pretty darn good. Ali Baba certainly wasn't the earnings, but they said they had some sort of AI chip

and the market reacted well. We're going to be watching that in the weeks ahead. And just overall, not a ton of things breaking down as of yet. Wary of some areas, wary of some stocks, wary of some places, but interest rates coming down,

and central banks are lowering rates big time. I heard 75 them around the globe and we're up next. And as we've repeated to you thousands of times, normally, if you're not going into a contraction or recession, lower rates won't hurt the market. If anything changes, we will let you know. No. Small caps, another good day. Drifting higher, lower interest rates. Leave no doubt. There is your story. And we will be harping on them going forward. And we'll let you know if we get an audience with anybody in the administration. I will not use my title of Fox News Business contributor. I'll just try to make some inroads and see if I can at least get to speak to somebody because I can help. That all said, you have a great weekend drive carefully. When you get home, do like I do, quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well until Monday. Have a good night. Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU.S.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, or Aida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.

Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.