Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Worsening

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Wednesday. It's September 6th, I think, 2020. Hope you having a good week. First off, want to thank Adam Sarhan for doing the show. when we're out. It's not often we are out. But I must tell you, well, we are in Dubai,

a little bit of business, a bunch hanging with the family. We're eight hours later. And normally I am great with the change in hours. I got to tell you, for whatever reason, I got lagged up the wazoo, fall to sleep a few times during the day. And Adam was here to help us out. and but we wanted to do the show today. We are pre-taping it. Right now, it's 2.36 p.m. So in the midst of the market, that way I can get to sleep early. And we'll see what happens tomorrow and Friday.

Anyway, for starters, I never been to Dubai. This is a first time. I've heard a lot of great things about it. I've heard how modernized it has become. Let me state for the record. Oh, yeah. We are amazed at what we are seeing and what we have seen. First off, we were at a beautiful resort in the desert for a couple of days, but then we were right around the palm.

They built Mad Made islands, which are just beautiful, just a beautiful place. Clean as can be, the roads, the streets, the buildings are magnificent. It has two of the most... I was in this Dubai Mall, one of the most amazing... I think it's the second largest mall in the world. Just a great place to visit. That's all I can tell you. We're having a blast, and there's so much to do, so much to see.

And, of course, hanging in the pool big time, which one must do. So right now, it is 238 Florida time, PM. it is 10.38 p.m. here. Next, I must say that there is another hurricane. So far it looks like it's heading towards Florida, but it's supposed to turn and turn pretty much away from the states. Let's hope that happens because it is a doozy. I believe it's named Lee. What everyone should do along the eastern seaborn is just keep a big eye on it. Because, these things can change. I still remember was 04. I don't remember what it was called. There was one heading straight up the Gulf and just made a right turn across Tampa, Central Florida. So you never know with these things. So just be ready. Do not forget these hurricanes have no bias. It doesn't matter whether you're rich or poor, older young. They will come get you. And they will come get you in a very big.

way. So stay safe. Be careful. All right, let's get down to business. What we do here, first and foremost, is interpret the markets. We do not predict the markets. We have absolutely zero interest in telling you where we think the market's going to be at the end of the year. We know it's fashionable on Wall Street at the beginning of the year to give out the big 10, the top 20, the top the stocks for 2003 that you must own, not accounting for all kinds

of crazy variables that can happen. All kinds of outside things that can happen, can occur. Without even considering anything. We're always amazed when we see things like that. So we don't predict. We interpret.

And what that means simply is we want to stay with what's working, be completely away from what's not working in the markets. And maybe you haven't been told, but it's not just the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ. There are 200 sectors that we follow for price action, performance, patterns, fundamentals. They range from airlines to cruise lines to oils, but not just oils. There's oil services, oil drillers, big oil, to retail. But it's not just retail.

There are auto dealers. There's auto parts retail. There's apparel. There's department stores. There's drug stores. There's supermarkets. And on and on and on. And we are 100% certain of one thing.

And that is, markets never move 100% the same way. And when we use the word markets, we mean the sectors. We mean the countries. 100% of the time, I could tell you there are areas that are bearish and there's areas that are bullish. For example, if oil prices are going up, oil stocks are usually on the bull side. What's on the bare side? Oh, yeah, airlines, since they use a ton of oil, and it's their number one expense. So we're constantly on watch.

We're constantly on the lookout. And when we say to you, and we do it on this show every now and then, and we simplify for you, imagine if there was 100 stocks in the market. Well, it's not that easy. Because I have one screen, and we have a bunch of screen, we use, but I have one screen that has about 15 to 20 housing names, has the whole transport index,

has all the airlines, has the cruise lines, hotels, travel-related. I have one whole column of retail, which starts at Abercrombie and Fitch and ends at Zumi's. I have defense stocks like Lockheed Martin, which is down 20 bucks today. I have the managed care stocks.

I have the drug stocks where a lot of the drug stocks are acting terribly, notwithstanding Eli Lilly and Novartis. I have one column of all the financials I need to look at. Now, I could make 10 columns of financials, but I keep the big banks, a bunch of regional banks, the lenders, the investment banks, some foreign banks. So I have that.

And we're able to see at all times what's leading, what's lagging. And when we come on the show, didn't say to you, hey, just letting you know, the Dow was up 100 today, but the market stunk. That's because underneath the surface there's trouble. And coming into this week, pretty much what we talked about was how many bad advanced decline days there were. markets up but advance declines two to one negative. How this sector and that sector are in bad shape and you need to avoid. While the indices have been edging up, we have been telling you that it's again a large cap affair

because the midcaps and the small caps are acting terrible. And we never know what the outcome of this is, but we do know by precedent, broad markets and broad market advances are much better than narrow market advances because narrow markets are easier to break down because fewer and fewer stocks and sectors are working. And coming into this week,

that's all we've been talking about. And specifically, financials, real estate. And we can go on, but how the underlying market has not been so well coming into this week, coming into the week after Labor Day. And we know we've been told that September is bad, but we're also told to sell in May and go away.

So we just want to interpret and stay ahead of the game. and of course when doing our own bidding to be wrong fast and be wrong small if wrong and do our best which is not easy to let winners run and keep running but Gary shouldn't we just think long term we keep hearing to think long term

well we can go through a couple thousand stocks that you would have lost you you know what if you thought long term because as you know, things change in the market. Technology companies become obsolete. Retailers go bad. Better retailers come to the fore. And on and on and on of changes in the market. From 08, disaster for financial companies.

Where Citigroup, as of this second, is trading at $41. 45 cents but not really it's trading at $4.14. Up next, today's markets. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal

goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And walk once again to Investor's Edge. Coming to you from Dubai. So let me tell you what we put out yesterday. I'm just going to read to you what we sent out to the peeps. For starters, the bond market continues to act not so well.

The pullback in yields was just that. And now a move above 4.32% on the 10-year, well, let's just say would not auger well for some things. utilities, very bearish outcome of higher rates, housing recently top. We played real estate, bare market, transports look like breaking down off a bearish wedge. Consumer staples, food, beverage, tobacco, household products, and many drugs, bare markets, regional banks and big banks, bare markets. JP Morgan hanging on to the 145 bare flag number, by the way, it's just above it as I speak. Small and midcaps, terrible day yesterday.

Remain trend, not so good. Gold miners fail. Airlines bearish. Wad plus 1 equals 2 with oil higher. Cruise lines. Casinos, rails, gross. Lots of retail, especially discount dollar stores, bare market. Ford and GM, yikes.

Restaurants, most all bearish. China, though trying, but every bounce not going too far. Emerging markets not happening. drugstores, brutal bare market, natural gas, bare market, media spank, Disney at a decade low. Lenders, nope, credit card companies. Capital One, Discovery, American Express, terrible, though MasterCard and Visa act fine. We just do not trust because of the rest. A lot of medical names, bearish.

And may we say joining in yesterday were a lot of economically sensitive names showing some serious topping. Defense, bearish, even with a war. That's how we pretty much finished it. But coming into today, there's a select narrow group of technology stocks, software stocks that had good reaction to earnings, oils, coal, uranium. But after that, not much else. Not much else. and when we did a little webcast yesterday, in my jet lag stupor, we basically posed the thought or question, well, if they keep hitting everything else, are they eventually going to get everything else,

meaning the technology, software, and the like? Well, I can tell you it's 250 p.m. East Coast time in the United States. Earlier, the Dow was down another 340 points earlier. It's still down 180. Not a great day, but definitely better than 340. The NASDAQ was down 230, finally getting some of those names. The good news is it's, well, not so good news is down 156.

Better than 230, but still down 156. Of note, Apple, not unimportant, down a big seven to quarter. Now there's some news that China will no longer let government use Apple products. But man, do you take, just so you know, That's 16 times 7. 110 billion of market cap because of that news. I'm not so sure. Nvidia, considered to be the top name, down 14 today, was down 17.

There's a story out about lending of money, the companies to buy chips, and maybe some of the orders are not for, who knows? We just follow the bouncing ball. So they get an invidia. Amongst others. Advanced declines again today. On the NYSC, 1,177 up, 2559 down on the NASDAQ, 1,211 up, 2537 down. And that's better from earlier.

And new yearly highs and new yearly lows. Hardly any new yearly highs on the New York, 90 new yearly lows. And on the NASDAQ, same thing, but 146 new yearly lows. Internals. Not very good. So what we call it just a little worsening of a market. Not gargantuan breakdowns. Certainly, though, headwinds.

And with some things, good headwinds. The Dow trading below the 50-day moving average again. The Russell 2000 cannot get going. The NASDAQ, as I speak trading right at the 50-day. And the best way to describe these indices is mushy. And what we mean by mushy, you got distribution, you got heavy volume selling. And just very tough action. Not a lot of leadership.

So we just take our time. Just be smart. The good news about weaker markets, one of our mottos. It's easier to isolate the strength when markets are weak. So we sit back and see, and without a doubt, there have been some good reactions in software land. And they're holding up pretty darn well. We'll see if that continues.

Because as we've said, if things worsen, do they get them all? Do we think we've reverted back to a bare market? On the whole, no. But on the individual, yes. When you got a chance, go look at a chart of Disney. Go look at a chart of Walgreens, CVS drugstores. And so many of these other areas previously mentioned. underlying underneath the surface of the indices, there are some issues.

And I suspect and leave no doubt. Higher oil prices, higher yields, two most important parts of the cost to people in business, the cost of capital, the cost of borrowing, and the cost of energy. and the cost of energy. The higher they go, the worse. It cuts in the consumer's wallet. It cuts into businesses' profits. And you know what stocks do when profits go down.

So to be watched, simple as that. $90.71 on oil now. Ten year yield at 4.29. The higher, the worse. next. Today's numbers. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over

1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your Or wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it one, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Well, you didn't think I'd do a show without ripping somebody. So I am here. And, you know, they have CNN on here, CNN International. And as we have complained to, you we are so tired of the BS the lies the obfuscations as we have told you we believe there is a day of reckoning coming we don't know when we don't know what number back in 07 we got a hint of a day of reckoning because for months the financial stocks were woefully underperforming the markets.

And it turned out that the markets caught wind and we had disaster. Government went and took $800 billion from us and gave it to the criminals at the banks. And they were criminals. Committed all kinds of fraud. Not one went to jail. Nobody was indicted. The reason is the people from Wall Street go into D.C. and the people from D.C. go into Wall Street

and they all kiss each other's butts, which takes us now. The biggest problem we have is not the corrupt politicians, the slees and the slime. The biggest problem we have is the absolute glad-handed of the media

and these politicians that they like. If they don't like a politician, they rip them to shreds. I live in Central Florida. We have the Orlando Sentinel newspaper. They pretty much spend their day every day ripping the governor, the Santas, whether he does good or not.

Whatever. We have been telling you, under no uncertain terms, the day of reckoning on debt and deficits. The collusion between the rating services and politics and the people they rate, it's pure sleaze. We have talked to you about the closeness between the media and who they like

versus who they don't like, who they rip the shreds. We have told you here months ago, we're headed to two trillion of deficits in one year. That the championship belt was taken away from Trump. Biden took it with his corruption in D.C. Guess what they're reporting today? Oh, that the deficit is going to be two trillion. How did we know months in advance?

And why is it just being reported now? Well, that's because they are kicking and dragging to report it because it's their guy. So let me tell you what happens on CNN today. They bring on a guy named Jason Furman. Jason Furman used to be the head of the economic advisors for Obama. They bring him on to explain how can we have a $2 trillion deficit. Jason Furman lied, blatantly lied, and said it was because of not enough money coming into Washington, D.C. A bald-faced blatant lie. He knew it. I know it. The woman who interviewed him probably didn't because she didn't do her homework.

And at the end of the interview, she says, thanks for coming on, Jason. We know that. You know, you. here to come and always tell us the truth. He lied. The reason why we have a $2 trillion deficit is Joe Biden took federal spending from the year before COVID of $4.4 trillion to the mid-sixes, and it's going to be all deficit, that increase. The tax receipts that are going into D.C. are at a record high. Jason Furman lied. I tweeted to him that he lied. He did not respond. And of course he's not going to respond because he doesn't want to go tit for tat for me.

He doesn't want to fight truth. He doesn't want this going viral that he lied. But that's what's going on, ladies and gentlemen. And therein lies the problem. You have a numskull in the media that put her head in the sand. I don't think she knew she was. lying but she didn't do her job all she had to do is go look at the revenues going into dc versus biden spending and she'll know about the lie it's very simple so here we go again jason firman by the way

is a professor at harvard just letting you know what more can i tell you you remember obamacare you remember You remember John Gruber, who's now a professor. He was one of the architects for Obamacare in video. Go look. He said we had a lie the American public, and we were able to lie the American public because they're stupid. And we had a lie to get Obamacare passed. Do you think the media is reporting that?

You think the media reported that video? Answers no. And therein lies the problems. Joe Biden is running a two-true. trillion dollar deficit. CNN, the one you can trust, spread the word to the world today, it's because taxes into the treasury are not what they should be, not the massive gargantuan growth in government brought to you by the Marxist, and he's a Marxist, control freak. You do it with taxes and regulations. Joe Biden. And that's what we're deal with here, ladies and

gentlemen. The market will know, we'll be ready. Maybe it's 10 years from now. Maybe it's five years. Maybe it's three. Maybe it's one. Maybe it's next week. All I know, they're taunting markets. They're taunting the economy. One trillion of our tax dollars is going towards interest this year. Oh, and by the way, that two trillion deficit this year, year. That is more than our whole federal spending that we had in the year 2000. Jefferson nailed it more than two centuries ago. He warned us of people like this. And they're getting away with it with a corrupt media. How do you think Donald Trump continues to poll well with 91 indictments on him or counts? And that's the story today.

wish we had better news. We want to report differently. We want to be able to tell you. We want to be able to tell you good things. We want to praise our leaders. But no. So anyway, the story goes, as we segue back, markets crapping out again today.

The worsening the market continues. And they're coming to get some stories. forward's today. It's never good to see Apple and Nvidia, arguably the two most important names in the market, getting whack like this. We'll see how we finish. As we said, it's 306 p.m. Eastern time in Florida. It is 11.06 in Florida. And I'm jet lagged. Dow down 217. S&P down 39. NASDAQ 187.

yummy. Up next, we'll wind it up. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process simpleasing.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I actually have an audience here. I have my family hanging out, giving me a standing ovation. As we are sitting here in Dubai, and I think one of my sons has a fantasy football league tonight. Have you named the team? I name my fantasy team Maui Strong this day.

year. And I am not happy with my team. I think I picked poorly. What I did this year in my fantasy football team was I did the Costanza, the show the opposite of Seinfeld. So every time I thought something, I did the opposite, but I don't think I did very well. I have two running backs that had ACL problems last year, and they're coming back this year. We'll see what happens. That is your the NFL starts when? Wait, with today's Wednesday. tomorrow okay and I have Kelsey in KC and he hurt his knee hopefully he's playing tomorrow anyway that's your football report for today back to the markets in the most important part of the equation here let's talk the fundamental side number one oil

prices not good just remember it's not just what you put in your tank you know how tires are made you know how solar panels are made Go Google the words what products are made with petroleum. All those products potentially go up in price if the price of oil sticks. You want inflation? You got inflation. What's the other part? Guess what you've been reading about? Mortgage rates. What have you been hearing? There's record low inventory in housing around the country.

Why is that? Well, it's simple. Who wants to sell a house that has a 3% mortgage to buy another one with a 7.5% mortgage? When I tell you to go get an amortization table or just go into Google and just plug in, quarter million dollar mortgage at three percent what's the payment and then go seven to half what's the payment you'll see a monstrous difference that's going on there and guess where that came from everything emanates from j powell the head of the central bank who's still the head of the central bank and his distortions remember silicon valley bank happened because of jay powell he gets no blame

None of these banks, Bank America is losing a ton on the books right now. They have to hold their securities to maturity or they take huge losses. What they have to do? Well, rates were at 0%. They had to go out long term. And long term bonds have been crushed. Austria was able to come out with a bond for 100 years, paying 8 tenths of a percent. It's down 60 percent.

amazing distortions. Jay Powell should have been fired ages ago. Nightmarish. And now he's got to compensate by going the other route. In fact, though, I give him credit that he's actually doing what should be done now is getting a little bit tougher. But there's no doubt in my mind this wrong way dude is going to go too far the other way. I hope I'm wrong.

We'll see soon enough. that's the housing problem but it's not just that credit card interest rates have skyrocketed the amount of credit cards is at a record high the amount of

money on the credit cards record high savings rates have plunged there's all kinds of things going on that we are watching very closely we watch markets but we know fundamentals

and we know the world the cost of everything the cost of rent autos everybody needs a car to get around the price of cars all-time highs price of use cars all-time highs the cost of use cars all-time highs the cost to borrow for cars has skyrocketed all fundamental stuff the higher yields go the worse the higher oil prices go the worse there's no way around it there's no way about it we're not making any predictions maybe they top out tomorrow maybe they don't but there's some fundamental problems

just remember oil prices are based on a few things number one speculators investors and traders but number two who's got the oil and what they're doing with it. OPEC, Russia just announced. They're going to extend. They're less production. Forces prices up.

Our strategic petroleum reserves is multi, multi, multi-decade lows. Can't go to that anymore to be watched. Oil's over 90. You see what's happening at the gas station. These are the fundamental sides. And just remember, if you're a driver, you're paying a lot more. If you're a trucker and a trucking business, you're paying a lot more. If you're an airline and you did not hedge, you're paying a lot more.

Do you know what the worst stocks in the market are in the last couple of months? Some of the worst stocks are the airlines. Their biggest cost is oil. So there's a lot to be watching. Best group in the market right now? Oil. Probably the only group right now. So on that morbid note, you have a great evening.

Drive carefully. We'll see if we're going to be up for the radio show tomorrow. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children. They'll feel better. You'll feel better. I'm going to sleep.

Peace out all. Thanks for joining from Dubai. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.