Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Xanax Market

Episode Date: February 23, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's the 23rd of February, 2023, and my flight is delayed tonight. But I think, you know, probably all that weather in the Midwest is doing the trick. anyway. Yay. You know, everybody gets mad at the airlines for flight delays like it's their fault, like they wanted to happen.

I've seen people actually get in fights with people at the airport. Imagine the people at the airport. All they're trying to do is get you on your plane and get you going, and people getting mad at these people and wanting to get into fights with them. Like they can change the weather or get the plane in the air. Like they're making decisions on what's going on with the planes. If people just would think, just for a little bit. Anyway, thanks for being here.

Lots to cover today. Today I tweeted that today's market was brought to you by a shot of tequila and a Xanax chaser. I say that because you actually had three markets. A hot open. A real hot open. a nasty drop, and then back to not the highs, but kind of halfway toward the highs. And it all happened because in the one o'clock hour yields did a little tankage to the downside. So the cause and effect remains in a very big way.

We'll get to that in a little bit. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post on our Twitter feed. You should follow us on Twitter. Just go to Twitter, put our name in, or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me, just be nice. And everybody's nice. You know, we have no mean people.

I'm down to no mean people. No mean people anymore. I think the last meanie I had was like three months ago. And they're very far and few between. You know why? I think everybody recognizes. We're just nice and respectful, and even if we completely disagree with you 1,000% on your politics and on your thinking, as long as when you're living in the rule of law and you're not racist and you're not criminal, all that crap, we can debate.

We can talk. And of course, I convert. I've converted some socialists to get them understanding that socialism only lives and breathes. with the money from capitalism. Socialism creates nothing. Socialism is government. It's control freaks. What does the government get their money from us?

And when they don't have enough money, what do they do? Oh, $32 trillion of debt. There's your socialism for you. Failed entity. Every which way, every shape, every form. Socialism. And Marxism, of course. Same thing.

Worse. Anyway, it all sucks. yesterday I don't know did I do this on yesterday if I didn't do it yesterday I'm doing it now but I think I did do it yesterday I may have done it on my webcast and not the radio show so if it's the first time you're getting it the first time if the second time you're getting again there is a I didn't give out the symbol yesterday you know what I did it on radio because I remember I didn't give it out the symbol I'm going to give out the symbol now L-U-N-R It's called intuitive machines.

It was a SPAC that did nothing. And what these SPACs do, they come out at $10 and they merge with companies, this, that, and the other thing. And we don't know what does it, how it does it. We don't know the mechanisms. All we know is the stock wasn't trading was $10 a few days ago. They did some merger. The stock went from $10 to $12.74 one day. The next day it went to $51.

bucks closed at 44 sat around for two days yesterday it went from a low of 37 to a high of 136 closed at 81 dollars and 99 cents what do we tell you about these stocks a we don't know what happens how with the mechanisms who the hell's buying it at 136 but what's our line eventually ultimately they all come back go back to where they came from why how do we know this because because we've studied it. We're not making this up. The stock was down $62.39 today to $19.60 down 76.09% today. Let's be careful. It's still going on. And that's a worry of the market for us. A worry on the market for us is this type of crap is still going on. That's a worry for us. Why is it a worry? As we have studied, froth and speculation should not occur at this time

and we're still getting ridiculous fraud. I mean, think about it. Went from 10 to 136. And there's no sales. They want to get in space exploration, whatever they merge with. So I just want to start with that. Do you know what the other one I want to start with?

We warned you about this one many moons ago. Another SPAC ride. It went from eight. It was a $10 SPAC window's high. It's only $31.80, but I think there may have been indictments on this one. stocks at a buck stocks at a buck

and what we tell you about these spacks they're usually crappy companies and I'd like to use a different word but I can't but how do we know they're crappy companies because that's how it works it's all

so I put in the symbol RIDE and I read to you what it says today their pausing production delivery because of quality issues on their electric vehicles that they haven't sold in the first place and there's only 19 vehicles out there this is what they were doing to you these scumb bags this is I you know I don't like using the pejaroves but I got to make a point these investment bankers these money-grabbing

scumbags were able to foist onto your backs dog crap so RID 31 down to one so we just wanted to start with that why because it came up Next, and then we'll get into the markets today. We've been on this little kick six, seven, eight months ago telling you that we thought eventually the job market's going to have some problems and people are going to be fired. We're seeing in the technology industry, crypto, we're seeing it in the housing and mortgage industry and a few other areas now. And we said to you many months ago, make yourself indispensable. That's what we told you. make yourself if you're an employee to the point where they can't get rid of you you work so hard you do so damn good at what you do make sure you're in that position i have to tell you we're getting zillions of emails on that thanking us on that

that is actually those words have made people think twice about what they're doing at work how they're doing it whether they're conveying it well and those words made a difference. We're very happy about that. And they're true words. You know, all these firings you're hearing about, the companies will be loath to get rid of somebody that they need. Can't get rid of them. It's too important.

So getting a lot of emails on that at this junction, that's good news. And really, it's pretty logical anyhow. but we go through life and we don't think about these things sometimes. And by the way, that's why I own my business. I'll never work for anybody ever again. Next, I don't know if you read about the murder in Orlando of a journalist. And we don't know what to the other people, what the connection was. And not even sure if the guy, the animal, knew it was a journalist,

says it was an unmarked car. You know, as you know, I work very closely with the boys and girls clubs of Central Florida to keep kids out of the gangs on the straight and arrow. This kid, this animal was in gangs. And he just decided to murder people. Nine-year-old kid he murdered. And I'm pretty friendly with Fox 35 crew here. And I message one of them, let him know I was thinking about him. But more to that I was thinking about. It's a 19 year old. He was not born a murderer, but got into the gangs and I guess they kind of sort of think it's the cool thing to do. And now he's going to spend the rest of his life in jail. He's never going to see the light of day. I gather he'll go on death row, killing a nine-year-old.

lives wasted by an animal and the animal life wasted. Up next, we'll segue. This is the one only Investors Ed. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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at asuonline.asu.org. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to... Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. Harry Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. So, for those that have held on to the Vanguard S&P Fund for 30 years, you will not care about what I'm about to say. And we understand that. Today, at the close yesterday, the semiconductors closed the socks at 2892, opened at 3,00, dropped to 2931, finished at 2980. The Dow, the close yesterday was 32-9-58. Basically on the open it was up.

Let's see. I want to make sure I got this right. 330 points. I think that's right. The Dow was up 330 points early. I'm making sure I got that right before I say it wrong. 33272. No.

Couldn't be right. 3304-5. Let me fix that up. So at the highs today, the Dow was up 225. Midday today, it was down 250. 500 point swing. And then by the close, ended up 108. The NASDAQ, the close was 11507 on the open.

It was 11638 or about the open. so it was up 131 points. And then at the low today was down 75. Finished up 83. That was today. All over the freaking map. And what did the trick later in the day? You know what happened.

Yields dropped. The 10-year yield dropped. 44 basis points. The 3.879. another direct correlation, so better day, could have been a real bad day. But here's what came out of today, when all is said and done. As I've already scanned because I was leaving on a flight, but now I don't have to leave so quickly, so I can scan again. The most important part of the equation, if you ask me, number one, you reverse back up.

But the S&P 500 has held the 50-day moving average. today off of this recent drop today. Doesn't mean it's going to hold tomorrow. We're just letting you know today it held. And what is the 50-day moving average? Again, we've explained it a thousand times, but we don't mind explaining it 1,000 and 1 because it's so darn important. You add up the last 50 days, the closes.

Then you divide by 50. You come up with a number. that is smoothed out in a pattern versus the wiggles and squiggles in the market. And it is a line of defense, a big line of defense for the big institutional crowd. Now, how can that be? How can a line on a chart? It's the way it is. If you're in a bare market, you break above good.

If you're in a bull market, you break below bad. If you stay below bad, if you get above good. If you go below and stay below bad doesn't mean bad worsens. It just means it can't be good. If you get above and it's good, it does not mean it gets gooder, but it can't get bad. That's the nature of the beast. It is the physicality of the market. I'm amazed that more people don't pay attention to it.

You can't be in a real bull market below. I take that back. You can be in a bull market and you can trend. back below it for a few weeks because you had such a big move and then turn back up. But you can't go up if you're below it. That's how it works. It's the nature of it. You can only go up if you're above it.

Only good can happen. Nothing bad. Now you can sit around and do nothing, but nothing bad can happen. Nothing good can happen below. And that's why we follow it. And the S&P hit it today and held. The financials hit it today and held. Keep in mind the are not in uptrends.

They're not in bull markets. Whoa, Gary, wait, it's above the 50 day. Well, what did we say? Above the 50-day moving average, just because you're above it does not mean you're on a run. You can be pulling back into it. And that just means you held support. It doesn't mean you have to roll to the upside. It just means you can't get worse until it breaks below.

And again, it's just a line where the soldiers defend the market or the soldiers fight on the way back up. That's all. And just because you break it today does not mean you can't get back above it tomorrow. Just because you get back above it today doesn't mean you don't go back below tomorrow. But when we add up the weight of the evidence, if we see 15 names in a group, break above. that's good. 15 names of group break below. There's safety in numbers.

There's conviction in numbers. And of course, then we look at the whole market. If 500 stocks and the S&P 500 break above the 50-day move and average, good. If they hold the 50-day move and average, good. If they break below bad. So that's the picking apart of this thing. That's the story. The S&P held it today.

The industrials, the X-L-I, held it today. this is off of pullbacks and these areas have not been real uptrends they've been they're flat and just remember if you stay flat that red line the 50 day moving average will be flat if you're ascending that red line will be ascending so this is just holding it on this pullback plenty of work to be done but that said good close today after having some nausea in the middle of the day that explained it Now, as we have told you, oils avoid, defense stocks avoid, waste management stocks avoid, there's a bunch of areas we'd avoid. And a bunch of stocks. And a bunch of Dow names. The Dow's been weaker than most recently. So keep that in mind.

We're not about, you know, we're always asked, bowl, bare market. No, no, no, no. We scan thousands of stocks, 200 sectors, sub-sectors, countries, commodities. you name it. And I can promise you in bull markets, there's plenty of bare market areas. In bare markets, there's plenty of bull market. Well, I take that back. In bare markets, there's not a lot of bull market

areas. There will be a few. Like when the market topped out in late 21, early 22, oils, the first day of 22, started going. So up next, the final numbers, other thoughts, news of the day, whatever else today.

this is the one to only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. By the way, sometimes, you know, we're in this industry and we read very weird stories.

Ready for this story? Boeing. Stocks down $5 in the aftermarket. Nah, four and a half bucks. Boeing is suspending delivery. of 787 dreamliners due to documentation issue according to the FAA hasn't handed over a dreamliner since January 26 from the production line or from the dozen store to awaiting delivery the assembly pause has been lifted but documentation issues discovered in the past week of led Boeing to halt deliveries what is a documentation issue that's the end of the story so I guess we'll hear more later. Anyway, am I flying a Boeing tonight?

Yes, I'm flying a Boeing tonight. Yes. That would be correct. So today's market wrap, brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Doub 108. We mentioned to you, we were off. It was 250, then it was down a bunch, 200. S&P up 21, NASDAQ 83, NASDAQ 113, NASDAQ 13, the SOX up 96. We'll get to that in the second.

Transport's 154. Advance declines 2 to 1 to the positive on the New York. 24 to 18 on the NASDAQ. New Yearly highs. Ain't a lot going on there. On the NASDAQ, you ready? GE Health. transmedics TMDX that was on earnings ultra salon ultra beauty I'm looking Titan

machinery TITN that's your new yearly highs on the NASDAQ the whole market on the New York I've got a couple of oils in the refining a quanta services PWR was up 11 but I think it was up 19 on earnings. A couple of shippers. Tankers. Not much after that. A fresh Del Monte. That's it. So still, not a lot of leadership. I take that back. Hardly any leadership. And I can promise you, we're going to need to see a lot more. So we've had this pullback. Maybe we, the pullback stall today on rates stopping going higher, all for it. But what's been our other line on this market? You know, everybody's looking for the big call, you know?

Oh, we're going to this at the end of the year. We're going to that on the end of the year. What have we been telling you? We just don't think it's going to be easy. We don't think it's going to be easy. Now the good news is again, interest rates came down again. and if they keep coming down good. But the trend has been up

and we consider this to be a little pullback in yields and probably we pull back a little bit more. I can't go much further than that. But good finish. Not at the highs, but good finish. There's a bunch more earnings to come out. But most of the big guys have reported. I can tell you, and that takes me to NVIDIA, up $28 today.

Now, I'm just going to report the news to you. First off, NVIDIA broke back above the recent high of the last week or so. It's not near. It closed the 236. The high in March of last year was 289. The other high in November of 21 was 346. So it's still down 100, about 35 what a percent since the high. What was that?

About a year and four months ago. But here's the thing. And listen carefully. Last three quarters earnings, minus 51, minus 50, minus 30, revenues plus three minus 17, minus 21. The upper end of their guidance, the quarter we're in, to be negative. year over year. So what does that mean? Well, we do believe it's not the news, it's how things react to the news, but we also believe in ultimate outcomes. And what we mean by that is this, and we've explained this to you many times.

In the end, value will matter. Valuation will matter. That's what we told you about all the bubble stocks. In the end, it all matter, it all crash, and we were 100% right. All the crazy meme stocks, they've all crashed. All we're saying now is, let's say NVIDIA reports another 25% drop in earnings. That would mean on average in the last year earnings are down 35%, yet the stock is up. Well, actually, it's not up in the last year, but it's not as bad. You catch my drift? That means valuations are going up in the trees. When I tell you about Seagate, this drive company, where at last two quarters earnings were

80 and 93% and by the way the stock is still way down off the highs but it's been rallying up what I looked at the next quarter it's going to be another big drop what ends up happening is if these earnings do not reaccelerate get going again valuations are going to be in the trees and that's going to be a big oh especially if interest rates keep going higher remember valuation will ultimate matter. Look what happened, all those ridiculously price growth names that just got up in the trees.

So stay tuned. We're not the greatest technician on earth, not just that. We watch the fundamentals, and we do have a feel for value, the worth, based on history, historical. What do I mean? Oh, if a company's been grown 15%, and normally their price earnings multiple is 20, and now it's 50.

You do know what happened in the year 2000. Walmart had a 50 times earnings. I remember others at 100 and 200 times earnings with 30% growth rates, which 30% is a good growth rate, but not at 200 times earnings. Stock ain't going to hold up. And guess what ended up happening? So just letting you know, we're watching earnings and we are watching guidance. And I'm going to repeat again.

Listen carefully. Earnings had better re-accelerate for a whole host of stuff, for a ton of stuff, because if it doesn't, we're going to be left with some significant over-the-top valuations. And as we've stated, ultimately there's an outcome, and that is they'll go and seek the norm for value. Ultimately, doesn't mean now, a week from now, a month from now. Could be a year. But ultimately, and if that will be the case, you better be ready. But for today, NVIDIA, on a 33% drop, by the way, 33% drop in earnings. It was actually operating earnings were down 60% plus.

Now, they did mention two letters, AI, artificial intelligence. and I don't think it was by accident that they put it through there a dozen times. They had a chance to sell it down today and could not. We'll see what happens in the days ahead. But good finish and a big help to the semiconductor index, which, by the way, most companies are reporting not so very good numbers. and keeps the socks in what we call higher low land. And the socks being the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Up next, other news we'd like to tell you about. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. In the news.

Three words I don't think I've mentioned hardly at all. But I decide to mention it today. And let me explain why. There has been a commodity that is just absolutely plunged. Absolutely plunged. And I must tell you, I haven't heard too many people talk about it.

Today and yesterday all of a sudden I am seeing reporting on how far this commodity is dropped and that being natural gas. 9.68 August of 22 it's at 2.34 now. UNG, which is a TF or E TN for natural gas, has gone from 34 and a half

down to $8.7. Unbelievable, huh? I'm just letting you know I'm bringing it up to you that people now reporting it's crashed. You know what that usually means when people start reporting a crash after it's crashed? Maybe that we're getting close to a low. So I put natural gas up on my screen. UNG, that's how you can watch.

Netflix. Netflix today at one time today, when the market was at its low, hit 314, down about 20, actually 21, still finished down 11 and changed today, breaking the 50-day moving average. It was just 379. Two and a half weeks ago, it's 323 today. The news, interesting. They're lowering prices.

In many parts around the globe. Three dozen countries in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East nations. Market didn't like that. Pricing, one would suggest, is quite important for Netflix. Next, again, NVIDIA. You know what the headline was? NVIDIA sees AI booming or AI boom to be watched. You can't go up on fluff forever.

You can't go up on 30% drops in earnings forever. I'm going to read this to you. The IRS is developing a new Joe Biden-backed algorithm that will make sure there will be more. audits for white people and Asian people. I don't know, I don't want to comment on it, but an executive order that the President Biden signed last week is encouraging the IRS to alter its algorithms to audit more white and Asian taxpayers. I'll just let that sit. Interesting. Just remember, it's the president that says if you make a certain amount of money, you're a tax cheat.

And by the way, that's not BS. Time and time again, Hintem and his minions are out saying, above $400,000, we're going to get those tax cheats. China wants to shake up their financial system as the communist dictator in charge is shaking up the leadership and putting his best buddies to run the central bank there. That cannot be good news. And I'm sure you've been hearing about China and Russia and that little shaking of hands. Not so sure that's good news either.

And that's some of the news of the day. I can mention one more thing. LinkedIn. You know, I think I have a LinkedIn, but I've never used it. just so you know on LinkedIn if you use the word commenting for reach it gets you to reach out further to employers on LinkedIn so when you're putting things out there on LinkedIn look how I'm helping you people out if you put in the words also commenting for reach it gets pushed to recruit recruiters and other contact So just letting you know. I read that in the Wall Street Journal. I thought maybe I should mention that on radio.

And of course, your best move, get your own business. And we explained a lot of that yesterday to you. And that is your ever popular over-the-top news of the day today. And, you know, I did not mention Jimmy Carter's in hospice. You know what? I may have mentioned in passing. You know what that means. all I know is Jimmy Carter after his president

has done nothing more than been philanthropic building houses for habitat for humanity did not do what Bill Clinton Hillary Clinton did and that's all they did was try to get wealthy beyond their imagination by influence peddling what a good man what a good man do you know easy after you'd be president to make a bazillion dollars so easy

He chose otherwise and never moved out of his house in Plains, Georgia, to Jimmy Carter in hospice. You have a great evening, drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. If you're watching this market on a daily basis, tequila probably will help. Until tomorrow, same time, from New York City. Stay well, everybody. Thanks for joining us.

Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary CultBomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step. closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.