Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Yesterday Forgotten

Episode Date: June 27, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

Happy that anybody be listening. It's July 20, yeah, July 27th. Nice. I lost the month. I don't drink. It's June 27th. It's Tuesday. and as always we got lots to whine about lots to complain about and lots to talk about hope you're having a good day before i even get going

so i'm sitting here it's the close of the business today and i have fox news on the last in the last 10 minutes they bring on an 11 year old man i'm going to call him a man he's a music prodigy go look him up Isaac Thomas oh my goodness and the fact that he's a musical prodigy did not impress me let me tell you what impressed me

Martha McAllum one of the greatest on TV asked him did you just pick this up easily and I'm thinking he's about to say yes no and he basically said

There's no way you can do it. I do just easily. This 11-year-old is talking like Warren Buffett on music. You got to check him out. Isaac Thomas. I recommend it highly. Anyway, we start out with different things every day. Yesterday, let's get right to it.

Yesterday, we had said to you was a real bad day for technology. a real bad day for that whole area of the market. That was yesterday. And we had said to you, the reason being is, oh, market, that area of the market's very overbought, over owned, over leveraged, overloved. And if it gets in trouble, it can come down a lot. that's how we left you yesterday let me tell you how we start today the nasdaq was back up 219.89 the nasdaq 100 up 256.89 that's all that quick and we always say to you on this show

there are certain areas that we watch that we look for when the market's really strong when things are really strong, when individual names are really strong, they will only pull back to the 21-day moving average. Why the 21-day beats the heck out of me? It's just one of those things. And why is the 21-day moving average stronger than the big one? The 50-day moving average. That's the big one. Well, very simply because you're only using the last 21 days.

and if things have been so strong, the 21 day is always above the 50 day. And by the way, it's just taking 21 days, adding up the closes divided by 21, and you get a smoothed outline. The S&P, well, you know what I'm going to do? The SPY, which represents the S&P. The 21-day moving average was 430-84. It hit yesterday at the close, and by the way, it was not a good close in the market yesterday, 429-82. The SMH was a semiconductors, undercutted a wee bit and finished right back above it today. The NASDAQ-100, the QQQ at the close yesterday, was within...

I'm getting my bearing straight, if I can find it. You know what I got to do? I actually have to put the arrow exactly on there. 357-24 to 357-68 within 40 cents. So these areas held that all-important 21-day moving average today. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and the semiconductors. and we had highlighted semiconductor names that were sitting right on the 21-day moving average. They popped off of them. They popped off of them.

And that's what did the trick. On top of that, some of the weakest of the semis, some of the weakest, guess what they did? They rallied strong. the worst of in the group rallied nicely one being a Texas Instruments always an important name back up seven and a half today so that was the story number one what story number two we harken back to June second that was the day the broad market came out of its coma and when we say broad market what we are basically talking about are transportation types, commodity types, economically sensitive types,

which would be the construction, industrials, materials, and the like. Financials, part of the stuff group, but they've been weak for another reason, though they had a good day, day. And let me tell you what happened today. they lit up like a pinball machine that's what we did that's what they did the transports up 400 2% plus the industrial types well let me well part of the transports is federal express just so you know four days ago federal express announced earnings that were terrible sales that were terrible the stock reacted poorly it reversed the next day today it braced broke out of range on 118% of volume, meaning double the volume.

FedEx, crappy numbers. And listen to these, oh, airlines, Delta announced this, that, and the other thing, broke out a range. We had mentioned the airlines. We hardly ever, I don't think, I think one time in my life I bought JetBlue and made some good money. these airlines are in Fuego now on whatever's going on with their business. If you look at the JETS Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets, go take a look. On the verge of breaking above the highs of February, or late January, and we think that'll probably happen.

Not just the airlines, not just FedEx. Have you ever heard of things like United Rentals, Martin Marietta Materials? Old Dominion freight. Out of nowhere, Old Dominion, which was been lying comatose also, up 25 bucks today. Up the right side. Volume heavy. Earnings minus 1 and minus 4 last quarter.

So all these economically sensitive areas continue. Remember, June 2nd is when they woke up. Now they're getting some life. On top of that, housing, we've been telling you about housing for a while, another strong day for housing. So very nice broad market day. All the talk, remember what we've been saying to you, all this talk of recession, there's no chance. We've never seen a recession where economically sensitive stocks lead. Well, I take that back.

They're not leading. They're getting going. Never seen that. And when I look at the New Yearly High List today, and it's not often this is what I get. On the New Yearly High List today, I'm going to read off some names to you. On the New York, if I can find it. As I said, Delta, carrier, I think that's like air conditioning. Lowe's broke out of range today because of Home Depot.

Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, you catch in the drift. Masco, Martian McLennan, Ford of Corporation, Eaton, floor and decor, that's coming on, housing-related, fortune brands innovations, housing-related. So just letting you know, that broad market continues, and I have to tell you, any of you could have bet me today on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and won some money. my thought process I figured there was some work to do and they just shot the certain finger at me today but that was a great hold of important support levels that gives the market a chance to continue now wait a minute hold on Gary how can this be the Fed still is going to raise rates again we're being told recessions and depressions and all kinds your tax telling us about the debt and deficits.

Oh, it be. Price first, all else second. Up next, we'll continue. This is the one known the Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-8-8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 8-88-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality of quality. programming with Gary Coltbaum it doesn't get better than this if you don't mind you know this is not just a show about you and your money but life in general we like telling you about things about life in general and stories life in general and sometimes death in general

and why do we do this because we really dislike what's going on marijuana legalized you know it's cool doesn't they tell us to stop smoking cigarettes but legalize marijuana. Remember, it's all about the money. You know that, right? And I got to tell you that pisses me off. That makes me mad. Because it's well known that marijuana is not good for you. It could affect you. It does hurt you. But of course, hey, it's the in thing. It's the cool thing. And if people are trying to run for office, they're all saying, yeah, let's just about legalize marijuana. We hate that. It depresses us. The glamorization now of gambling. Everything that you do know is gambling, and they're ruining shows now. You do know what they do. In the middle of a football game, middle of baseball game,

and you can go to Draft Kings right now, and blah, blah, blah, blah. And just so you know, all Draft Kings is is a bookie. They say they pay out, oh, we pay out millions and, no, the losers do. And in case you don't know, gamblers pay a Vig. so they're already behind a little bit. When you go to casinos anywhere, every game you play, there is an edge. You know who gets the edge?

They do. But it's now glamorized. And just so you know, I'm a hippo-I gamble a little bit. I like betting football games every now and then. I'm a hypocrite. But I'm trying to tell your story about, unfortunately, with all this advertising, people are betting their life savings on lotteries and gambling.

But do you know what they do with the bottom, with the little letters at the bottom, you know, oh, if you have a gambling problem, you need to call this number. But that's not what I wanted to bring up today. I just want to read, this is the headline. British father, 53 years old, dies on holiday. They call it holiday when you're from Britain.

in Jamaica after trying to drink all 21 cocktails on a pool bar menu. And they're showing a picture of this gentleman. Now, you may say to yourself, oh, Gary, come on. We're never going to do that. He did. Tell your kids. It ain't cool. Tell your kids, drugs ain't cool.

You got that? The problem is a lot of them think it's cool. And listen, my kids were in college and I used to go up there and visit them. I can't believe what used to go down. And the college wasn't doing squat. Just trying to lessons. That's all. Lessons.

Logic. Lessons. I told my kids, you know, nothing good happens after midnight. That's number one. Never be out of control. I told you my story that, you know, I was faced down in the puddle one night in Tampa when I was in college and that was it. I was done. Walked out of a bar, I don't remember.

And I woke up at five in the morning. It was raining, face down in a puddle. I promise myself that'll never happen again. Just lessons. And every now and then when I see a story about this, I just feel like telling you about it. Next. So the Department of Justice, you know, our Department of Justice

just came out and said, Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide. Do you believe them? what they're telling us was the staff was lazy and they did not check on him and somehow the cameras did not work and the guards who were supposed to watch him 24-7 took a powder

and the guards who should have been indicted for that cut a deal on that because they signed a document lying about it Interesting, huh? They're trying to make us believe that this guy that had all kinds of bad crap on all kinds of powerful people. Have you seen the list that's been on his plane and on his island numerous times from the Clintons on down? They're trying to tell us it just so happens. It just so happens.

The cameras didn't work for that cell. and the guards just happened to leave. While a couple of the most famous coroners came out and said, there's no way this was a suicide, yet they're telling us it is. I leave you with that. You know where I stand. You know where I stand. What's the line?

I'm going to use the line. Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining. The dude was murdered. case closed. Anyway, just do you, ladies and gentlemen, just think logic. Just think logic. That's all. Just think logic.

I had to bring all those little things up and we'll get right back into the market. There was some news today. The durable goods was better than expected. Maybe that did the trick for the broader market. I don't know. All I know is this. And it's pretty simple. I've never seen, I've never seen a bad recession if Federal Express is breaking out.

If Delta Airlines, it is New Yearly High. If my screen of economically sensitive stocks was moved to my front screen because a bunch of things are showing up. And I say this. I get email after email from all of you out there telling me about your businesses and everybody's saying business is slowing down. So I don't know what's going on. Maybe it has to do it. They're going to run a $2 trillion deficit of government spending this year. And they're telling us this infrastructure, maybe the market's making a bet.

I don't know. I'm just letting you know we follow price. And when I look at what I am seeing now and where things are going and homes are. Depot break and above range and Lowe's finishing at a new yearly I can go on and on. All the areas that say economics are okay are in gear. Started June 2nd. That was the day. They were all dead.

And we'll see where they go from here. And part of economically sensitive is the semiconductors. And they had a good day today off of that news. when they were getting squashed for a few days. So, me, I want to be careful. I'm just going to say it was a real good day. Tomorrow be another day. I'm already getting emails from people.

Isn't this end of quarter window dressing gallery? Not so sure. So that's a little bit of this, a little bit of that, a little bit of things that I am reading, and just logic. logic. Up next, the full market wrap, movers of the day, news of the day,

whatever else today, I'm Gary. This is the one-n-only Investor's Edge. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. By the way, aren't I logical? Raise your hand if you think that it's a coincidence that Epstein committed suicide. And just so happened that there were no cameras that were always working 24-7. They weren't working all of a sudden on probably the most important inmate they had. And the guards just happened to take a powder.

they were on their phones and playing video games. Isn't amazing how our government bullcraps the hell out of us? Why do you think I have no trust of them? Remember what we say? Never been more optimistic on most of us. I've never been more pessimistic on them. Remember, Trump, he's going to be convicted. He's guilty, and he's so stupid doing these interviews,

and he's going to get convicted. But I'm telling you, if it was the other side, they wouldn't even investigate it. This is what's going on. This is the story. They got Biden dead to rights. The media doesn't even talk about it. They blacked it out.

The son's saying, my father's here right now, and if you don't come up with the goods right now or else, and you know he knows everybody, it's on tape. It's been blacked out, dropped, dead. Imagine if that was Trump and Don Jr. This is what's going on. So we don't trust anything out of any of them on either side. You should neither.

I hate saying it, but they've proven us right. And we're going to 35 trillion this year of debt. Says everything you need to know. Just remember, that's money they're not supposed to spend. They were never supposed to run deficits, let alone gargantuan. They used to fight over them, let alone gargantuan. And they get rating services to come out and say, oh, we need more debt or else. They get economists to do that.

They're all a bunch of crooked pieces of crap. Yeah, two trillion more debts. We need to do that because. So it all intertwines with what they just did with Epstein. A scam, a con. They just protected a bunch of wealthy. By the way, go look at the list. Huge government officials.

Actors, actresses, athletes, ex-presidents, much times there. Yeah, you know, yeah, the cameras just happen to be off. Yeah, well, you're sure. And it runs out of the media. They're going to cover it for an hour today and they'll be done. Why? wonder who's in there and which of their friends are in there.

This is what we've dealt with. This is why Trump won. This is why Trump may still win with all his baggage. He's got great marketing of the things I tell you. And I can't stand the guy. But, hey, I watched him do a couple interviews last week. He lied out his rear end. People don't care.

I'm just going to keep putting my head down, work hard, play hard, enjoy. Back's doing better. I went to the stretcher last night. Who, she good. She's one of these physical therapists and man, oh, man, oh man. You move this way and that way and oh my gosh, I'm getting somewhat limber again. Segwaying to today's market wrap brought you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. By the way, I want you to email me. I want to know what you all believe about what happened to this creep. Suicide or or they took them out. I want to hear what you all believe. I would like to see what the masses believe. Suiciter, they took them out.

Email me. Gary K.com. Interesting. Dow 212. The story goes, Home Depot, moved above range yesterday, more today.

Well, Amgen was down three and change. Walgreens, man, oh man. They put Walgreens in the Dow, you know, thinking, okay, Walgreens, drugstore, this, that, and the other thing. Walgreens, I'm going to go back a bit,

tops out at 97 in 2015. It's now 28. I'm not sure when they put it in the Dow. Actually, in 2018, it was 87. It's 28 right now. And I'm pretty sure it's been the Dow for a good three, four years, maybe five years. I got to double check. That didn't help. But everything else pretty much green. S&P 49, NASDAQ-215, the transports 401, FedEx up 11, Landstar. You move things. Remember, in bare markets, I'm sitting there saying to you, all the stuff that moves things is crashing. Now we're telling you FedEx reports the crappiest of numbers. For one day, it gets hit.

It reverses the next day and now breaks out of range. And at the same time, Old Dominion freight is up 21 bucks today. Six percent from yesterday. What was the difference? durable goods came out today. They were good. Expectations obviously not so good. And the rest is history.

The economically sensitive areas, the companies do best, not the growth names, but the companies do best when the economy is flourishing, getting going. And combine that with the hold of moving average of certain names in certain areas. specifically the semis. Now, getting to the financials, they had an update today. There is a god. But I can't go any further than that. Kind of sort of along for the ride, not leading up. And interesting, J.P. Morgan was flat today.

You would think it would be up today decently. Was not. So financials still not going on. But I already know when I do my scans, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 semiconductors off the 21-day moving average. A bunch of semiconductor names off the 21-day moving average. And obviously that's going to be our little line in the sand for those things. And then you have these other names. If I tell you, you ever hear, Roper Industries, ROP, Roper Tech, they are energy systems and stuff. Breaks out of range today. Doesn't trade a lot of

volume but breaks out of range. W.W. Granger, another new high. What do they do? Lighting and plumbing and tools. This is what's getting going. And I want to repeat, on June 2nd, they were comatose. They were dead.

A lot of them were in bare markets. That was the day we told you they woke up and since then, well, you got the story. What was down today, gold? Gold miners. The anti-market. In other words, market better gold goes down it's obviously non-inflation play because gold never got going when we had

massive inflation which topped out last June so I think we're okay in here pretty darn good economy saying something market's saying something of course the president out saying you look what I did they all forget was 160 million of us that's the economy not them but they got to make Okay, so just say anything. He'll be out all day tomorrow. Hey, look what I did. Because of me and my policies, everything's great. I actually believe, though, again, I really do believe a component of this is they're going to spend $6.something trillion this coming year, which is 50% higher than the year before COVID.

I think that's a component. And that's the deal. That's the story. Advanced declines today. 28 to 10 on the New York, 2516 on the NASDAQ. Good enough. What's funny is more new yearly lows

than the yearly highs on the NASDAQ. I've got to check that out. Up next. And we'll figure it out. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. You're listening to

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready go. In The Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa. You know what's the pressing? As I told you, I was heading to Wimbledon for my annual trip to Wimbledon this coming Friday, but I canceled it because of my back, which, by the way, is much better,

but I'm not taking a shot on that. And British Airways, I was flying on, and God bless them, they let you change. the flight, even though a week before the flight, just to another within one year of when I booked the flight. And if there's any difference in price, so I mean, that's a great deal. So anyway, I guess, you know, I changed it, but I still have the same reservation number. They sent me an email only three days to your flight. Darn it. Which is a mistake.

I guess they, you know, that's like a. and automatic so on. And I change my flight. And by the way, I can change it as many times as I want. And it's just a matter of if there's a higher price. If it's a lower price, you don't get any money. Anyway, good on British Airways. Nicest people.

Must tell you. Nicest people. Virgin Atlantic, I fly also over to London when I go, but they're pricing. This sometimes, they price twice as high as British Airways. It's very weird. the news. In case you've never done this, I love reading the stories of great successful people. Love reading their stories. A person I read the story of, a few years back there was like a 10-15 page article on, they just announced is now going to take over for Pat

Seyjack on Wheel of Fortune, Ryan Seacrest. Never met him. What an unbelievable success story. You know how I tell you that to become a great success in anything is you find a niche and you become the best at it. You work your tail off. You do what you have to do. And he found this niche. I think he started out. He was doing like a local game show. Then he got to American Idol and he was on with some other guy and that other guy. Dunkleman quit the show. Not a good move on his part. Anyway, he realized he had this gift and, you know, Dick Clark moves to the side.

He took over for Dick Clark with the New Year's Eve thing, has gone on with the American Idol the whole time. He's got his radio show, top 40 this, top 40 that. And now Pat Seyjack, who I think has been there for like 90 years on Wheel of Fortune, is announcing his retirement. And guess who's taken over? Seacrest. When you have a chance read about him, he found his niche, worked his tail off, marketed himself.

And I read another story about him that is so imperative. And I try to model myself the same way, except when it comes to politicians, owners of my sports teams that are doing terribly, and of course, criminals of all kinds. He treats people great. I hear when he talks to people one-to-one or in a group, they're like the only person in the room. He's never putting down any body. He's always lifting up. And how do you become Ryan Seacrest? Just a little bit of that. I hear he's worth a half a bill.

That's a lot of cake. Anyway, when you have a chance read about him, I have the article here somewhere. I think I kept it, but it's in my moves and stuff. I don't know if I can find it, but if you Google it, I'm sure there's a lot. Read up the story of Ryan Sechrest. and just think about how he started and where he is, and he is the man now.

Just, you know, food for thought. Whenever anything shows up, I want to let you know. So that's the Ryan Sequest story, and I never met the guy. I'd love to meet him one day. Segway again, FedEx breaks out, construction stocks, material stocks, industrial types, industrial types. housing housing related is finally come on what do we mean by that world pool sherwin williams mascow fortune brand security home depot and lows there's no chance of economic trouble if if this is going on and continuing hey if they top out tomorrow and the world ends that's another story but i got

news for you. Some of these things look like they're just starting up. It started June 2nd. Remember, all we were talking about for a long while, tech, big cap tech, and then the AI with the AI story. And then June 2nd. That was the wake up day. Now, how long it lasts, how far it goes, beats the heck out of me. but airlines new yearly highs cruise lines truckers construction building industrial semiconductors there's your story as always if anything changes we will let you know am i surprised inverted yield curve is like a hundred percent guarantee that we're going to have, there's my dog, 100% guarantee of a recession isn't happening. Yet, debt and deficits, big worry.

I'm surprised. Welcome to my world. Price wins. Movement wins. Leadership wins. Everything else. Secondary. Big time.

Market speaking. clearly while there's a big dose of bullishness we'll see where it takes us you'll have a great evening drive carefully and when you get home to like I do simple procedure make sure you hug your family and hug your children

they will feel better you will feel better until tomorrow I think I'm on maybe noon with Cavuto Fox Business have a great evening everybody good night this has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com.

That's GaryKay.com.