Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Yields! [09.23.2026]

Episode Date: September 23, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It's Wednesday.

It's the 23rd of September, 2006. Hope you having a good day. In case you don't know, 23 is my lucky number. Every one of my addresses has 23 on it. just because Michael Jordan War, 23 has nothing to do with it. Just 23 has been my lucky number. What can I tell you? Hey, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. Debt deficit scams, corruptions, liars, cheaters, stealers, thieves, and whatever else comes to mind. And my quarterback of the New York Giants out for the season. and if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our X feed. If you don't follow us and X you should,

just put our name in, put our, you know, and follow us. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice and we'll be nice back. Just be respectful. We'll be respectful back unless you like Hamas, whether you're, unless you're racist, whether you, unless you rob the bank today

or beat somebody up or any of that. And what have you. And as I said, My quarterback of the Giants out for the season. I hate to say this, but he's kind of injury prone now. And I'm hoping that we pick up somebody. I am not sure James Winston is the answer. As you can see,

as you can see, I'm quite the job. Giants fan. And as you know, I'm quite the Knicks and Mets fan also. Do you only times I watch the Knicks final game and the parade? Quite. Ladies and gentlemen, we're doing this show early. Travel. In fact, it's only 201 p.m. right now. It's not very often with this early, but travel today. And as you know, the Northeast corridor has been a lot of travel hell, so we want to be very careful about it. And so we're preparing, and we'll see how it goes. We're hearing the Northeast may end up with a North Easter this weekend. Yay.

But the big story today, ladies and gentlemen, I hope you listen carefully. We hope you are listening carefully. Y, I, E, L, D, S yields. We've been harping on them every day. Every single day we've been talking about yields and how yields keep going higher and higher persistently. What are yields? Well, let me do some explanation for those that know but may not know the whole story. We typically talk about the 10-year yield. That is a government bond that the longevity is 10 years and it will pay you a yield guaranteed at the end of the 10 years. You

years you get your money out. And if bonds keep selling off, the yields go up. And what the 10 year is, let me give you a few little thoughts. And I looked this up. And I liked what I read. So I'm going to explain what I read and then give an explanation. The reason why the 10 year yield is so important, such a benchmark, because it actually, it actually. is something called the risk-free rate. Hey, look, I can get right now for 10 years, 5.12% per year for the next 10 years. And get my money out in 10 years. Of course, if the government's still around, which they will be, you would think.

Now, what's so important about that 5.12? It's risk-free. Those are the two words that matter most. It's risk-free. And you do recall one of our biggest complaints was that Jackass Powell destroyed that. He took 10-year yields down to zero almost. Glad he's out of the way.

What else does it do? it'll dictate pricing for consumer and corporate debt. What does that mean? Well, if I'm a corporation and I want to float some bonds and have you lend me the company bonds, that 10-year yield will be a marker. And of course, it's not exact. And depending on what type of company you are, how much debt you have, if you're really profitable or not, there's a yield you're going to have to pay.

And of course, mortgages directly influences 30-year fixed home loan rates. And in case you don't know a year ago, the mortgage rate was about 6.1. It is now 7.2. And if you want to know how important that is, go online. line and put in what is, use 500,000. A $500,000 mortgage for the next 30 years at 6.1% and then put it in at 7.2%. Look at your payments and then look how much interest, more interest you're going to pay over the 30 year life. And of course, as you know, I believe the 30 year is a scam. You should do 15 year mortgages because 30-year you don't pay down your principal to like the 15th year, a 15-year mortgage,

you pay it down immediately. Your payments are higher, but not that much higher. You should always check that out. So that's huge. And it's also financing costs for auto loans, corporate credit, and of course how much the U.S. pays to service their debt, which is an absolute monstrosity. Higher yields also hurt the present value

of future earnings for corporations. Why? If the cost of capital goes up, they're paying more in interest, less profits. And of course, elevated yields potentially will pull investor money out of the stock market

and into the bond market, why? Risk free. Hey, risk free. 5.122% right now. And if you want to know what Jay Powell did, let me tell you what he did. In 2020, what are you getting? 5.122 now, back then you were getting 0.05.

Half a percent. Yes, God spoke. So anyway, I'm starting with that because yields are really spiking again today. And today is a real bad day in the bond market. The market is down. But I must tell you, the mega cap part of the market, the big index part of the market, of the market holds up like a rock, but other areas, as we have noted daily, have not. The innards of the market, much worse than the big indexes.

And that's why we've been telling you, that's where we're hiding out. Big amongst other things. So we had to start with that. We are less than thrilled. And the question is, and this is a question, why? I saw a very famed economist not worried, saying the reason why yields are going up is because the economy's strong. We're hearing this quarter we're going to have a 4 to 5% GDP. The job markets are better, but nothing spectacular.

there are others that think like we do. Deficits. No willingness to do anything about them. Up next, we'll keep along those lines. We'll go through today's numbers and the sore thumbs. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. So this is probably one of the worst bond market days I have seen a long while.

I'd have to go back to May. And it really is along the curve. What does that mean? one year, two year, five year, ten year, 30 year. The 30 years up to 5,41, five years, over, the five years over 5% and the 10 years, 5122 as I speak. And they'll close it at 3 o'clock and as right now it's only 2.10 p.m. As we're doing this early.

So the Dow is down 260, S&P down 50, NASDAQ down 300, NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ 100 down 283. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 have been strong. We'll call that normal pullback for now. The socks is down 188. That's been strong. Was down 300 earlier? The strength today, that's software security stuff again,

as well as some miscellaneous software names. We've got a grouping of about 10 to 15 names. I don't know if the word's relentless. but yeah, they've been on the move. Crout strike, Fortinette, Octa, Palo Alto networks, the ridiculously valued Palantir, Twilio, VEVVVVVa systems, and team atlasian symbol team.

That's front and center on my screen. What else, Meta's having another decent day, though it was better earlier. As you know, META came out with this thing called Muse, it's AI, whatever, and it was number one on the Apple thing of a bomb. So meta stock, what was up 70 bucks a couple of days ago, and still it pulled back a couple of days. But it's strong. I can't argue that point at all. And there's a few other things sticking out in technology.

But overall, today. As I speak, a thousand stocks up on the New York, 3,300 down. As I speak, 985 stocks up on the NASDAQ, 3,289 down. You ready for this one? As I speak, I'm showing 44 new highs on the New York Stock Exchange. 558 new lows. 77 stocks on the NASDAQ at new yearly highs. 323 new yearly lows.

And to be clear, all those numbers are skewed a little bit because number one, new yearly highs as I look, there's not that many. You got some weird non-operating companies, but also on the downside, same thing also. But still, those numbers are stark. that underneath the surface, the big indexes, indices, are really making things better than they are. Big time. Bitcoin's pulling back today. Gold having a rough day because of the stronger dollar.

Why does the dollar strengthening? Well, when the interest rates go up, dollar strengthens. Go look it up. And then there's things that are sticking out. ladies and gentlemen I always say to you you know when something tops out I never know how bad it's going to be

but we'll just recognize it's a bare market bare trend and avoid it when something breaks out to the upside I also say I never know how good it's going to get how far it's going to go but just try to ride the trend well we have told you that for a long while, except for a few names, or a couple of names, the restaurant stocks, were to be avoided.

For a while, BJs was strong, then broke down. For a while, Cheesecake Factory was strong and then broke down. And actually, Cheesecake Factory is not that bad. It's only down about 13% off the highs, and it's still much higher than where it was in June. Brinker International Well, it just dropped from 255 to 209 So that's not a great Last few weeks

But there's one name that's been a sore thumb One name That we've been telling you Stay the hell away McDonald's McDonald's McDonald's classically topped out at 320. Hit a high of 341, but the real break was at 320 in mid-March.

It's 237 today, and it's down 13 in change today, more than 5% today on an investor day today, as they came out and stated that, not so great. McDonald's, I've yet to do my checking, on McDonald's. As you know, we do our own channel checks on a lot of things. We did it with Lulu Lemon to figure out what the hell's going on here.

Remember that? My favorite one of all time was Kmart. That was such a gimmie a long time ago. Starbucks, I've been doing big channel checks on Starbucks. And I must hand it. to the new CEO. By the way, Starbucks stocks recently has not done well in the last few weeks, but was. And why would restaurants not do well in the last few weeks?

Well, oil's been spiking again and yields been spiking, less money for people. But I have to tell you, all the credit to the new guy. There's a Starbucks where I go to, they fixed up the inside and at, it looks fantastic. It was subpar beforehand. Now it feels like, homie did a great job. The one up in New York City right near my little apartment there, fixed it up. And amazingly, just fixing it up, it went from hardly anybody going to it to busy. That's what fixing up a place will do. Also, the place where I'm at right now, they have more people there. Things are getting done quicker. They put up a thing on the wall that says being prepared and your name is up there

so you know what's going on. Served so you know it's there. Really good job by the CEO. Got to hand it to them. And we'll keep you up to day. And we'll keep you up to on that. These are the important things that we tend to follow in corporate America. And with retail and restaurants, things you can touch and feel,

you can get a decent idea on companies. Hey, up next, what else are we seeing while the market's open? This is the one only Investors Edge. They're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

And I just want you to remember some things, lessons I've learned. I told this story before. I think it was early 90s. I lived in Boccaratone, Florida. And on. southwest 18th Street, not a major thoroughfare. There was a strip shopping plaza.

There was a gym in there, a nice bar in there, some stores. They put an Outback Steakhouse in there. I was like, really? They're going to put one of these in here? Well, around that same time, Outback was putting in restaurants in a lot of places. and Barron's had a front cover saying about don't go near it and all that because nobody's

eating meat anymore. Yet Outback had two three hour waits on the weekend and the stock I think went up tenfold and the little things like that. You got to really take a good look and stay on top of things. somebody send me out let me see if I can find it here somebody sent me out something earlier I thought I had it somewhere I can't find oh here it is it is the front cover of Barrens this is from if I can find it 2013 trouble at Tesla Elon Musk's 90,000 Tesla Model S is fantastic, but the shares are up 200% this year to 102.

Assume Tesla can produce 450,000 electric cars a year. Don't bet on it. This stock could be worth as little as $50. The stock is up 5,581% since 2013. Just letting you. And by the way, we're not here to rip Barron's. We're just making no to this. I'm sure Barron's has made some very good calls out throughout the years.

Just let you know. So we're letting you know with a lot of things you can really go check things out. And I must tell you some things we failed on. Brinker International stock, we missed it. I should have done some good channel checks. And when was that? In 24, the stock went on a run. Like tripled in nine months.

And it turned out they had, they fixed up menus. They were doing different things. And I didn't do any legwork on that, and I should have. Why? You can go visit them. I can promise you, try go visiting Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California. I wonder if you can even get in there. Anyway, that's just a little bit of that and do some legwork.

I've learned to. And by the way, it doesn't guarantee anything. But you remember the Kmart? I think we did it with Sears also. Not hard to figure out. And of course, Lulu Levin. And I don't know what the heck they're going to do. And by the way, that goes for this whole athletic wear thing.

Nike's down at 36 bucks. Under Armour sitting at $4.66. And some of these other apparel's. Canada Goose is at $7.60? I remember, and by the way, that's down from like $70. bucks. My son had moved to New York and I'm up there. I bought them a Canada Goose jacket. And I don't know what the price of these things are. I paid over a thousand bucks and I'm thinking to myself back then, they're going to sell a lot of these things? By the way, they're great jackets. Price. Price matters.

Anyway, again, this is how you do things sometimes. You go visit them. Get a feel. Do they treat you nicely? Do they not? Same goes for auto dealers. Home builders. Are the home builders giving away free pools?

Free upgraded cabinetry. Are they given you? 3% mortgages when mortgages are 7. Do you know what that means if they are? Demand is not strong. If you're up at 1 in the morning and the car, the auto advertisements of 0% financing and employee discounts and $10,000 off,

demand is weak. These are the things you have to pay. pay attention to at all times. Remember what sales are. They are not gifts. You think they want to lower prices for you? No, they have to lower prices for you. When inventories too much in order to move them, price. Same thing goes for housing and housing stuck right now. In my Florida right now, if you go on Zillow, any number of cities, you will see markdown after markdown after markdown, after markdown. But to recognize the markdowns are from fantasy prices. I see people putting up houses that were one and a half million three years ago for 3.5.5.

They ain't getting it, but I don't blame them for trying. And we'll see where they land. And now, with yields rising, oh, that's to be watched. Because that is a potential playing field change for any number of things, particularly housing. When I tell you to go on, do an amortization. Go on and put a 30-year mortgage, 500 grand, at 6,000. Then put one at seven and look at the difference in the payments and the interest over the life. It's gargantuan and meaningful and meaningful to the housing business.

So just letting you know. It's about almost 230. Dow's down 294. S&P 50, NASDAQ 285, NASDAQ 100, 261, the Russell, 2,000, the small caps, And by the way, that's 2,000 stocks remain just very weak. European markets topped out recently and not much good going on there. The advanced declines putrid again today. You have 893 new yearly lows on the New York and NASDAQ and 122 new yearly highs.

And as I stated, it ain't that many. And as I stated, things like McDonald's crumbling. and by the way today Amazon and Google two mega cap names in the Mag 7 very poor action today the AI news is very fluid and just so you know I'm studying that crap every day ladies and gentlemen I consider myself kind of smart I don't get half of it

I take that back. I don't get 80% of it. You know what I have to do? I have to look up definitions. Definition after definition after definition after definition after definition with all the alphabet soup. There is one thing I do know. I take that back.

There is one thing I believe that those mucky mucks that came out and said the end of humanity I ain't believe in that. They sound like the climate change idiots. Just my take. Up next. Back on markets. Whatever else. This is the one only investors edge.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In Investors Edge. With Gary Coulton. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge.

By the way, as I speak, and I just looked, here's headlines. Ten-year yield leaps to 19-year high. Mortgage rate surge above 7%. McDonald's CEO, high inflation is here to stay. A poll, Trump approval hits lowest of career. What are the headlines? Grand Spectacle for Communists, G's. Don is on the...

Boy, there's... Trump gets hit by the media. any minute of every day. Let me just tell you. And of course, my quarterback of the Giants is out for the year. What can I tell you? What can I tell you? Not thrilling. In case you don't know, they got the UN thing going on and the racist, Jew-hating, anti-Semite guy who runs the UN came out and said that the Gaza, whatever is going on in Gaza is the worst thing I've ever. seen and guess what everybody did they put up the numbers from Syria Nigeria all these other countries and made them look like the racist Jew-hating anti-Semite that he is it's

amazing the UN and also in case you don't know this is my favorite news of the day if I can find it darn it I thought I had it oh by the the way, the gentleman that I couldn't remember his name yesterday, Jonathan Gruber, he was one of the architects of Obamacare who came out, and I'm paraphrasing, said they had to lie to the American public about the Affordable Care Act, which was not affordable. And the reason they were able to lie is because of the stupidity of the American voter. That's your Obamacare. And of course, The media never reported that. How are your premiums, by the way.

Do you believe they got away with that? Get rid of pre-existing conditions, millions on the rolls, but don't worry, your premium's going down? They got away with it. Anyway, the latest unforced error is that this administration's knocking three quarters of a million off, and that that'll help vote. And by the way, I have the Republicans losing the Senate also now. And in case you don't know, I'm pretty good at it. Anyway, the UN thing's going on. The China guy is coming here.

Tomorrow, I believe, they'll have meetings. Trump is still talking annihilation around the head of Iran spoke and said, no, we're not trying to get nuclear. Yeah, that was a good one. Anyway, I don't even know what to tell you. But back on point, if yields keep going higher, it's going to be a competition for your money and competition for stocks. It also eats into future profits if it continues.

I tend to ignore the person that says, oh, don't worry, it's because the economy's strong. I believe we have an economy that is not to use to these numbers. That's my take. And in the housing market that's already distorted by the illness called Powlitis, it will be absolutely no help to the housing market going forward as the affordability factor of homes based on price and interest rates will kick the home buyer in the teeth.

Excuse me. Yes, the home buyer in the teeth. And it is a buyer's market now. As inventory is it an all-time record versus sellers versus buyers. It is a buyer's market. So definitely try to underpay when somebody is offering.

Dow, down. 306. In the Dow today, Amazon acts like crap. Google down another 11. Goldman down another 11. The financials has been toast. McDonald's down 12 and a half. Was down 16. Not much else moving. On the upside software, Salesforce.com up six. Microsoft's up two. Was up better, but still up to. IBM up almost three. That's considered software. I'm being asked a lot about apps. Apple? I'm agnostic on it. I still cannot believe I didn't listen to Warren Buffett. Do you know when he bought Apple years ago, Apple was in a bare market and he was getting made fun of because it kept going lower? I think Apple's probably up 10, 12, 14-fold since Warren Buffett bought it.

I did not at the time. I should have bought it with blinders on. guys pretty good so yields not good the dollar strengthens commodities weaken gold weakens

cost of money goes up cost the capital goes up oh and oil prices are up today but they've been down pretty decently in case you don't know I went to gas up today I pay for the middle gas

I paid $4.89. It was $4.49 for the low. And this is Florida. This is Florida. California is much higher. And by the way, in case you don't know you Californians, there's a 41 cent mystery tax, gas tax that is unaccounted for by your wonderful people running California. They can knock 41 cents off right now, but they won't. You know why? they hate you the government hates you yeah i want to get this right yep in florida here central florida four dollars and eighty nine cents for the 89 gas 87's 449 i'm pretty sure i paid three dollars and ten cents a year ago kids that will be about 50% of your election if not more you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like i do quite simple make sure you hug your family hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise stay well be well thanks for joining good night all bye bye this has been investors edge with gary coltbaum on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k