Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Yields bite [05.21.2025]

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's May 21st, 2025.

I believe it is Wednesday. And you know how I know it's Wednesday. it's because the Knicks are playing game one against Indiana tonight at the Garden. And I will be up in the Northeast Friday for that game. I heard the cheapest ticket was like $900. But I heard it was coming down a little bit today. I'll have to look that over. Anyway, there are days that matter more than other days.

when it comes to this very important radio show. We, how do we put this? I think we do a splendid job of guiding you through the muck and mire, and I must tell you the last couple of months have been some of the wildest action I have seen in the markets in a very long time, where you had a crash, you had an administration running amok on what they are going to do and how they're going to do it and when they're going to do it and how much they're going to do it and who they're going to do it on and once they crashed the market they had to change their stance and of course they marketed it

that they are in control and we know that you have no control whatsoever fortunately they backed away from the tariffs and i don't know there's some tariffs still up there but they did all kinds of exemptions also. And that's good. And let's hope more of that to come. But then it came to a new budget slash spending bill. And who has been the loudest voice on debt deficits? Our government, the size, scope, reach.

Who has? I. I watch today. And we're not going to mention names. A true fiscal Republican conservative say debt doesn't matter. Doesn't bother him one bit. And of course, you know what side of the aisle that person would be on. We talk all the time here about the tank.

The tank being, if you are a lefty, no matter what. the left does, there's nothing wrong with it. It's always right. If you are a righty, no matter what the righty does, you're good. And that's unfortunate. Because for four years, you had the worst president of all time on the border, on debt, on deficits, and amongst other things, You know about the inflation that was supposedly transitory, and I can go on. And then we get this administration. Now, we're a big believer in the past. You see, I won the Preakness this past Saturday.

I had journalism to win. And, boy, he came from behind and won. Didn't think he was going to because he was in between horses. But I bet that horse based on the Kentucky Derby that he was really strong, but the mud, and it gets in your eyes when you're behind horses. And I just thought he was the best horse even though he came in second. Past performance. When I was in high school, I always got into the dog track, even though I was not of age. Well, actually, yeah, I was not of age, but got it to, went to Hollywood.

with dog track, Bisqueen dog track, and Flagler. And I was very good handicapper of the greyhounds because I was very good at reading the past. Inside box, outside box, what type of track, how far the race, who they were racing again. Did he move up a grade or down a grade? I was very good and I'm pretty decent with the horses also. Past performance. So we knew President Trump, from his past performance of his first four years, did not care about the debt and deficits. He talked a big game like everybody else, talked a big game, and did not come through immediately spent like crazy, and we know why.

And he's not unlike the other politicians. If you lower government spending, that affects GDP, and GDP matters. to elections, I guess, the marketing of elections. So we were holding out hope because the president this time was, well, let's just say for four years, the Republicans and President Trump were complaining about Joe Biden and his asinine, asset, 10, ass 11 spending debt and deficits. So one would hope that, hey, they're going to get it. So President Trump gets elected and what does he do?

The same. They put together a bill, a budget that guarantees our 37 trillion of debt is going to 45, go on a 50, going to 55, going 60. They did nothing with it as far as the spending side. And they have the minions going out with their BS. What's the BS? Well, we'll grow our way through. They said that. during Trump years, four years, which, by the way, the economy was good. It was good. No complaints there, but debt and deficits skyrocketed. And we're not talking about the COVID numbers either. That's before the COVID numbers. So they put together this bill and the minions are out just bullcrapping you.

Oh, we will grow through it and this and that. And we had it. They're just full of crap, all of them. And by the way, I'd say it to their faces. because I am a voter, I am American. And what we have, though, is a stock market and a bond market. And we keep hearing the stock market is not the economy, but they're wrong. The stock market is a lot of the economy.

And then there's the bond market. We have said to you maybe 5,000 times throughout the years that we, we worry is there ever going to be a day where the bond market wakes up and shoots a certain finger at what they are doing in Washington, D.C.? We've said that to you. I can't even numerous times. And fortunately, fortunately, fortunately, there has not been a big cause and effect. even though we went from, let's see, in 2008 when Bernanke started the moronic money printing, I think we're about $5 or $6 trillion of debt then in 2008. So it just took about what, 18 years, 17 years to take us the $37 trillion and counting. So they put together this bill, and it's a horror show on spending.

We love the extension of the tax cuts. We're not that great of a fan of taxes on tips, except we found out there's a cap, so that's okay. But I'm wondering if a lot of businesses are going to give you a dollar salary and then everything's going to be tips and they're making out on you. They also raise the salt thing, which basically means you and I are paying for the ass clowns in the blue states on the local and state gargantuan local and state taxes. They get bigger writeoffs going forward. but it's the spending side that they did nothing about. And the shame of it is there's gargantuan opportunity on the spending side. Why?

Well, we did 4.4 trillion of spending in 2019. We're going to do 7.2 now. Last I looked, that's like 65, 70 percent in six years. They talk about the economy growing 3%. why is government growing eight or nine or whatever that number is rule of 72 and then there's the bond market you see as we have stated economics 101 says the more debt you have when you go to the bond market to put out bonds the people that buy your bonds are going to demand a higher yield to cover for all that debt that should be economics one

But since we are the United States and we are the dollars so big and important and our bonds and this and that are so important, nothing could ever go wrong. Right? Well, today they did an auction for bonds. And let me be clear, it could change tomorrow. But today, there was little appetite for our bonds. Up next, the results, and then the markets. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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5559. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache

every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut butter cups, they go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers

at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Reese's. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So, they tell us there's no inflation now. Inflation's down, so don't worry about interest rates. But in the last three weeks, the 10-year yield has gone.

from 4124. It closed today at 4.596. And looks like it wants to go at least to the high of January, which was 4.809. The 30-year broke to, let me see, almost to the highs of October of 23 and above 5%. And the reason this happened is they did a 20,000, year bond auction and there wasn't a lot of fervor for it. So yield spiked higher. And I always worry,

are we at that point where the market finally just wakes up and says, 37 trillion of debt? Oh, how much has gone towards interest this year? Oh, and now the Republicans came in and did absolutely nothing about the spending when they complained about it for four years. Screw you. We're selling bonds. We already know other countries who have feasted on our bonds for ages have been net sellers. And I think a lot of that has to do with the tariffs and being pissed off. So today, yields were ticking up a little bit, but no big deal.

And today, early in the day, the Dow was down like 300, and we told our peeps, we thought that a few of the areas of the market had topped out near term. What that means, you know how we talk about stair steps in the market for price? You go up two, pull back one, go up three, pull back one, and the stair steps are going higher. Well, recently off of this China News, the latest thing, we went up and we've been sitting around for the last five, six, seven days as we drifted higher and something sat around with others. Well, we noticed earlier today at least some of the areas like the weak transports versus everything else, amongst other things, look like they had near-term tops in place. So early in the day, the advanced declines were terrible, but the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 were on the strong side, and the market was buying up anything and everything artificial intelligence like. But then the bond auction came and we finished down 816 Dow points. The S&P 95, the NASDAQ 270, the NASDAQ 100, 287.

Let me give you the NASDAQ high today to give you an idea. The NASDAQ hit 19241, 19241, so that's about 300 and we were up 100 on the NASDAQ. We finished down 270. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 88. That was up early. The transports down 403. I told you about advanced declines early stunk. Well, they really got worse by the end of the day.

625 up on the New York, 3575 down. 768 up on the NASDAQ, 3497 down. My screens are very much red except for gold and gold stocks. Interesting that Japan stocks were up today, Japanese, even though their bond market yields keep going higher. And as I said early in the day, it was getting strong. and video looked like it was going to break above a little handle there and some of the other AI names but they came in also because the market was weak and tomorrow's another day and we understand that but it feels like we hit a moment here today duh and we'll give it a chance

to redeem itself in the next day or two specifically the bond market but as I already started doing my scans, let me just use the word, ew. I don't even know how to spell the word, ew, but it was, ew. I'm not thrilled with what I am seeing. Again, that could fix itself in a couple of days. A good bond market day would help out tomorrow, but it did not finish well today the bond market. And keep in mind what a couple of things this means. Number one, what did we say to you?

The president is jawboning Powell to lower rates, but we told you if Powell lowered rates, it may raise rates, right. Powell does the Fed funds rates. We talk real rates, the

free market of the 10-year, five-year, 30-year yields. And they're now going higher. And you know what this does to Powell? It boxes in. He cannot raise rates now. The market is now dictating he cannot raise rates.

And I'm dead serious when I say that. And the president had better be careful about that because he can think rates are being lowered, but real rates are going higher. They don't understand this. We do. They don't understand this, we do. So all across the board, I have a complete disappointment in this budget slash spending bill.

It does nothing to change the trajectory. The four years of whining complaining by the republicans was nothing but a con again. it's the same old, same old. We're going to spend our way into oblivion to all the people of the United States up yours. But they are going to extend the tax cuts. But Gary, doesn't that cost and doesn't that add to the debt and deficits? No, it's our money. And us keeping more of our money is actually a good thing.

The problem is they did nothing about the other side again. and why? They're so worried about the next election. They know if they cut government spending, that could be a problem for GDP, but they're causing a bigger problem, and that is the market. And let me give you that if again.

If the market wakes up to the debt and deficits, I just wonder, we're going to go 6%, 7%. That is not a prediction. it's just a we're wondering. They've been taunting us for ages now. They've been taunting the markets. They've been taunting the taxpayer. And when I see them out today, the administration,

oh, well, well, the growth will do everything. What? Why couldn't you do your job? How are you telling us you're not cutting anything? Well, we are. They're telling us they're cutting, one point, $2.5 trillion over 10 years. That's a fly on an elephant's arse.

And of course, whenever they tell you something, just divide or multiply or whatever. Up next, what else are we saying? Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman,

host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself.

Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow. That had everything. Rees. Suspense. Rees. Cash flow crunch. OnDex's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. For the record, want to make sure you know, we don't take any joy. We don't take any joy in any of this. as you know we are an equal opportunity

complimentary is that a word and we are an equal opportunity critic I really had hopes do anything do something

cut something they did some doge not sure the come there, it's gone silent. Terrific. We complimented them. But the big matzabal is this budget. And they are conning you again.

And if I got to meet with the president and the Speaker of the House, I'd introduce myself and say, why didn't you cut the Inflation Reduction Act? from Biden, the 1.8 trillion of nonsense. Why didn't you cut a third? Why didn't you cut the 350 billion given to Podesta? Why didn't you do anything? At least you would have showed. You cannot show anybody anything about cutting spending. They had somebody out today again, talking about how great it is he couldn't answer the question on cuts

so the blob continues the two trillion dollar a year deficits continue and we've been conned by another administration that's all same old same old

and let's just hope today was a one day nasty and tomorrow's a better day we'll see but I'm giving you the if if interest rates continue to go higher I think there's a penalty to be paid

because that's the cost of capital going higher and we're already I believe in the sevens on mortgage rates right now and I do believe the credit card business boy there's a lot out there on the credit cards let me finish off by saying it again we take absolutely no joy

no joy at all we want success stories but they have let us down again and what they have done I watched the journalist on the right make fun of one of the people that agrees with me a person in Congress

that didn't want to vote vote yes, and ended up voting present in order to get things passed. All of a sudden, the person that wants balanced budgets or at least better than what they did is the extremist. That's sickening. That's sickening. So it's game on. I don't know what else to tell you. In other news, well, let's just do a couple of things before I go into other. As I am scanning, it looks like financials putting a near-term top. And I mean pretty much the banks, the regional banks. It looks like the transports put in a near-term top.

And what a near-term top means is that the highs of the last couple of weeks after that China deal are not going to get through to the upside anytime soon. That's what it means. the definition of soon, I've never come up with that. A while. And as always, if things change, we'll let you know. And hopefully tomorrow, yields come down. Anything's possible.

And as I go through thumb and through, looks like the industrials hit a little moment today. I would say the metals and mining and materials hit a moment today. the housing stocks never really got going and they're just plain old rolling over already. Oils have stunk up the joint for a long while. They've just been barest so nothing to do there. Retail, which was trying. Near-term top also, I would suggest. And again, near-term.

We're not talking farther out. Near-term. Economically sensitive. those names right United Rentals look like near-term tops a caterpillar little near-term tops and again if anything changes we'll let you know but interest rates going higher on the long end is not a good thing I can all but promise you that and obviously the market today reacted to that next up the Indiana tonight. Quite important to myself, may I say, for the record. And now other news,

and it is of import, other stuff, United Health. Remember it was up for the last couple of days, Insiders Board was down 18 today. Just accusations being flown around. We never know what's true what's not. We've been asked a lot about that stock as of recent, and we've just said we don't know. All we did was tell you about the insiders. But there's a story going on today in a newspaper that the Department of Justice investigated allegations and documents about inaccuracies and all kinds of crap. We'll see.

United Health did issue something that said there's no truth that all. all kinds of crap. One of the things was United Health allegedly paying nursing homes to reduce transfers between hospitals, whatever the heck that means. But it hit the stock for almost $19 today.

I can tell you this as far as I'm concerned. Whenever there's uncertainty, we tend to stay away. We tend to miss it. We'll miss the down, we'll miss the up. Just a lot of uncertainty.

And of course, it's hit the whole group. Symbol ELV, H-U-M-U-Mana, Cigna, and the like. They go bye-bye. We're pretty much to a lot of earnings. There's a few things left this week. Decker's Workday, the dollar stores, BJ's wholesalers, analog devices. I think Best Buy is this week also. But we're pretty much to everything.

Yeah, Best Buy, I do believe, reports in the next day, if not this afternoon. Apple, got to bring that up because we're asked about a lot. It remains in a bare market, bearish phase. It is not kept up with the market anyway, shape, or form. Just letting you know, actually acts pitiful right now. Yeah, actually is drop it. Couldn't even get through the 50-day moving average by much. in recent weeks.

Just letting you know. We're getting asked a lot about Bitcoin. Bitcoin went into all-time highs today. I think it backed off towards the end of the day. Actually, it may be right there. And actually finished pretty decently today for whatever the market did today. That's the Bitcoin.

We're asked every day about Tesla. The move above 195 was a good move hanging in there. but I will tell you the story going forward is not going to be the cars, it's going to be the robotaxies and other things. At least that's what all the analysts is dependent upon. And on the market, lastly, I have to bring up a stock with Simple Wolf. It was down 60% today to $1.28. Bankruptcy. A bunch of analysts downgraded from buy to a hold today after dropping 99%.

Do remember that. Up next, news of the day. Whatever else today, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.

In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can put it. probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart

Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans, the case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. of um they're reeses what was that going to do stop myself tune in next time to see if i do it again spoiler i will that add everything reases suspense reeseseses cash flow crunch on deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to 200,000 dollars right when you need it cover seasonal dips manage payroll restock inventory or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and

confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Hitch with Gary Kulp. I want to address one of, oh, Target was down another five bucks today. The stock target has gone from a high in 2021 of 267 to 93 today. While Walmart, the same date from 21, has gone from 50 to 96.

If you would go into a Walmart and you go into a Target, they pretty much sell the same stuff, don't they? Just something to always remember. And I think Target, what happened first? They did some weird crap. In fact, I went into a Target, and boy, they put out some weird crap products. They call them woke. And I'm not going to mention what they were, but they were in the sexual nature at a target.

And that really, I think, did a number on them for a while. But then I guess inventory control. Something to that effect. But you just have to, these are things always, remember the Kmart Walmart target thing we did years ago? I would come on this show and say, hey, you know, I live in Lake Mary, Florida. And there's a Kmart, and I went in it. and it was a crap hole. It was dirty.

There was nobody helping. There were empty shelves. And then I went to the Target, which was half a mile away, bright, busy, people helping. And Walmart, of course, and that Kmart store within a year was out of business. Just keep, always keep those things in mind. When you're going to stores or going to restaurants. and things like that. It's like the Starbucks.

I've been wondering why the stock was going up when the new CEO came in because he had this idea, oh, we're going to keep charging the higher prices because we're Starbucks. And I'm thinking to myself, is this guy smoking the evil weed?

But the stock kept going up, even though earnings, down seven, down 25, down 23. Well, the last one was a down 40 and the stock's now gone from 117 to 83. Sometimes you just got to think things through. And we hope it works out for him and Starbucks. But if this guy doesn't know that people are price conscious right now, I can't help him.

Frankly, he's a goof if he doesn't know that by now. And frankly, he's probably not visiting stores and speaking to his clientele, the people. just letting you know these are things on how we think, how we do things. When I'm in Publix, I'm always the bag of Hershey's little chocolates

used to be 1099, they're 1599 now, and I ask how they're selling now, guess what, less than before? Just the little things we pay attention to. And that's why we're paying very much attention to these tariffs.

supposedly we're in a 90-day window and who knows what's next. I may have to visit Moralago on a weekend and talk to these people because if they go back into them tariffs, and let's finish up with the media. We don't want you to forget. So there's this guy Jake Tapper for CNN, who by the way, I like what he does his reporting when he's not BSing everybody. In case you don't know a few years ago, on Twitter, I had said something to Jake

Tapper that you just introduced a Democrat as an independent. Why don't you say independent, but he votes 100% of the time as a Democrat. And he blasted me. And it went viral that a Fox News business contributor was blasted by Jake Tapper. And I got death-throred. threats. Just for that. That's how sick people are. Anyway, he has a book now. And now he's doing a mayor culp. Yeah, we didn't do our job about Joe Biden, everything we saw every day. We saw it. We're not duffices. And now he's doing a mea culpa. Yeah, I know, I know, I know. And he's making all kinds of money writing a book about being wrong or lying. And let's be nice and just say he was wrong. No, he was lying. We don't want you to forget.

get the media of the last four years before Trump with Biden. They blacked out Hunter Biden before the election with Trump. That's number one. They didn't even report on all the corruption of the Biden family. And boy, oh boy, there's a crap load in plain sight. And that's why Joe Biden did the pardons for his whole family. They never talked about the 10 million people going through the border until six months before the election. When the poll numbers on immigration were worse than Root Canal and Jock Itch for Joe Biden, and then Joe Biden blamed the Republicans.

And what did the media do? Blame the Republicans along with Joe Biden. We don't want you to forget this because they're not doing the job for you. They are not doing the job for you. They are reporting in the tank, and I'm not talking opinion people. We are talking the anchors. Opinion people, I know who they are. I know who they are on the right.

and I know who they are on the left. And they're fine. They're opinion people. But reporters and anchors report the news. Don't BS. So I don't want you to forget it. They conned you for four years. Even though it was in plain sight and you can see it with your own eyes.

I hope Joe Biden lives a great rest of his life and I hope his cancer goes away. We just do not want you to forget. because going forward they're going to do it again to you. Do not forget that. They're doing it to Federman now, a Democrat, because he dares, sides with the Republicans sometimes. All of a sudden he's a mental case.

Remember all this. It's going to be very important going forward. That all said, crappy market today, hopefully better tomorrow. You have a great evening, drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better, you will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Serenity now. We'll be doing the show a little bit early tomorrow because I'm on a flight and all that crap. Peace out, all. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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