Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Yields Down, Market Up.

Episode Date: October 25, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's October 25th, 2025. Hope you are having a good day. Ladies and gentlemen. Lots to do, lots to cover. Simple as that.

Lots to do, lots to cover. Simple as that. We hope you are listening. We appreciate all the kind words we've been getting. As you know, all we really want to do here is first and foremost. First and foremost, educate. Do you know many people? I mean this.

Don't really know the specific law. of supply and demand and how they work? And I'm not talking politically, that we got a lot of emails when we explained housing and how it works, got lots of emails from people. I didn't know that. What we also want to do is keep you in good stead with the markets, especially now.

do you know on this show, and I don't even think I'm paraphrasing, I think I'm actually giving you my exact words a year ago. My exact words were, you all better make sure that now more than ever you're listening to this show and intently and telling all your friends and relatives, and even if you have some enemies, tell them too. what was my next line as usual? Because in bare markets, you'll get no help from Wall Street. And man, oh man, that's what we got in droves.

Again, the things I see, the things I hear. And as I have told you, I do not watch Wall Street. There's a select few people I want to listen to. select few Dan Niles go look them up Druckin Miller George Soros

and I know the political part of Soros but one of the greatest investment people on earth and a few others Paul Tudor Jones Ron Barron David Tepper but then you have

what I call you're Wall Street when we get into bare markets I'll tend to watch more not because I turn on the TV but because I get all kinds of stuff sent to me all kinds of stuff and it really is amazing to watch

people going on the tube and taking credit for yeah I called the rally two weeks ago but they've never been bearish and they've never sold anything and they've been calling rallies all the way down These people nauseate me. They are of no help.

So our job also is to just straight ahead. Focus. When right, be right big. When wrong, be wrong, small. Get the main trend right. Be a student of the markets. Be a student of how things work in good and bad. Without any bias, any agenda.

and any ulterior motive whatsoever. Straightforward thought based on the study, thousands of hours of the characteristics of bull and bear markets. Not just by us. I got news for you. I was a doofus until a gentleman by the name of Bill Kind in Tampa, Florida, introduced me to the daily graph books. They were blue and green.

They would come every week. We never had charts online And I would pick them up every Sunday And I would go to a William O'Neill Free seminar Later down the road I was going to a seminar That I would pay five grand for I used to get him for free

And then I did my own homework My own work And recognize Hey wait a minute man This guy's out to something Not only the picking of stocks But his thought process on stocks and that is never lose big be specific where you buy so you better be specific where you sell

and never run things down you know we've been bringing up this kathy wood in the arc funds this year and again we don't take on anybody we take no joy in anybody's losses anybody's downtrend anybody's problems but we've been asked a we've gotten i'm not making this up a thousand inquiries on those funds so we bring them up she does the opposite of when O'Neill taught. And that is, number one, small losses. Number two, when something's in a bare market, don't keep averaging down.

And she's averaged down into things down 70 and 80%. Which means for 70 and 80% she would not recognize, hey, I was wrong. And what ends up happening is you keep being wrong more and more and more. O'Neill was the opposite. So we studied it, and we studied it even more, and even more, and even more. And I recognized over time, man, I can add a few of my own little wrinkles. Doesn't work right now because there's hardly any, but years ago, we combined the technicals with insider buying.

If we found a strong chart, a strong stock, an insiders averaging up, it was telling us that, hey, even the people running the company. Insiders are notorious to buy after a stock gets trashed. They try to find value somewhere, but insiders that bought the stock at 50 and then they buy more at 7. What? And we hit big out of a bunch of names throughout the years on that. Unfortunately, there's no insider buying right now. anymore and we've seen nothing of umph you know what the last big one was and we actually didn't play it was Steve Wynn bought a hundred million dollars of his own stock and I'm I can tell you

today I'm so pissed at myself that we didn't buy any but he bought a ton of insider stock back in I'm trying to think when it was I think it was in 16 and the stock just simply doubled and tripled. He bought a hundred million bucks of stock and I gimped out on it. That was really the last big one. So we added that. And then other things we added. And then we had to add in central bank to where we came up with the bubble thought process. And that came from other study, the reading the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. And the study of tulip bulbs and all kinds of other crap that led us to tell you the coins are a bubble, the short squeeze stocks are a bubbles, the SPACs are a bubble, the marijuana stocks are a bubble,

and we were right. They 90% to 100% drops. So that's what this is all about. But nothing works unless when wrong, be wrong small. because I can promise you we bought stocks that went down 50%. We got out at 3%. That's the gist. And time and time again, the people we talk to

own stocks that are down 50. And you know which ones they are, the most popular of the last bull market. And why do they keep owning them? Because they're told they'll come back because look how great they were last year. They're going to be great. again, but guess what the rules are and the laws of the market are?

In bare markets, the prior bull leaders will drop on average 70% with a lot of them never coming back. That was just something else that we learned. So you put the pieces of the puzzle together and then you close your eyes, you hold your nose and pray. Simple is that. Anyway, I think you get an understanding how much we put into this. Up next, markets, earnings, news, all that. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So all this I've been telling you, and I can promise you it's still not easy. Oh my goodness gracious, it's still not easy.

Just remember this is not only physical, it's emotional, it's financial, and it can be diabolical if you're not careful. Yeah, I use the word diabolical. You know why? I've read the story about the guy that had a half million bucks in a stable coin, and the next morning he had zero. And that was all his savings. He was told it was a half a million bucks in a stable coin. a stable coin. Stable. What does stable mean? If you look up the definition, I gather it has something to do with something that doesn't move, something not to worry about. Everything's

a okay. Stable coin. I read of people that bought into the short squeeze stocks and wrote them all the way down and were crushed. I know people. People. People. I know intimately that I found out after the fact bought NFTs and they've lost their arse. And I would never go up to them and say, why didn't you ask me the reason they didn't, because they knew what I would tell them and they wanted looking for riches. Do you know why? Because at the time, there were riches. They did not think about what I call

the hey, wait a minute. Wait a minute. What's an NFT? And how much are they paying for it? Those people don't want to hear from me. They don't want to hear the voice of reason and the voice of potential doom. They want to know

oh, baby. I'm going to make riches. That's why I can't stand some of these people. Nothing personal. But like that guy he sold the sports, what's his name, Portnoy? An influencer that attracted all these people. He was yelling and screaming, stocks never go down. He said that on TV, stocks never go down.

He said it on his little video. And he said he's never, ever going to sell. I'm never selling. And then stocks got smashed, he sold, and then told everybody. Again, nothing personal, but guess what happened with him? Fear and greed and emotion took over, but he influenced. And I'd say it to his face. Again, nothing personal.

I am 100% that he meant well. I'm 100% sure he really believed it. I do not think he's a made-off. That's out to cheat and steal. But this isn't easy. What we ask you, no, no, no. What we implore of you, don't make it tougher. You know how you make it tougher.

Number one, doing stupid things, listening to stupid people, writing things down to the ground, buying utter stupidity. What's utter stupidity? Well, you know what utter stupidity is now, don't you? Utter stupidity would be, let's go buy Rivian stock that has a market cap just about equal to Ford and General Motors, but Ford and General Motors has $260 billion of sales, and Rivian delivered 42 vehicles to employees.

Guess what? A lot of people bought the stock. In spite of me going on TV and yelling and screaming about the stock. Well, I couldn't yell and scream, but I was quite vociferous. And of course, the stock's gone from 170 down to 34, where I think it's still overvalue. By the way, they're selling cars now. They have a big thing with Amazon who owns a piece of the company that Amazon's buying a bunch of the things, and maybe it's going to turn into the greatest thing in history. But what we knew at the time, wait a minute, you're going to pay that? And the list has been just gargantuan over the last couple of years. Of what we call, you got to be kidding me. You did what?

How much did you pay for that? Oh, the company has $2 million in sales, but you bought it with a market cap of $6 billion? What did you expect? So as we go forward, and hopefully we come out of this bear market, we will talk differently in that, hey, here's leaders. This one's going to new high ground. This one had good earnings, good revenue growth, good reaction. And let's hope whatever we're seeing right now ends the nausea. Not so sure.

We're in the midst of monstrous earnings season. monstrous earning season and I think that'll tell the tale and unfortunately in some indices there's just select few names you know the top five names in NASDAQ 100 are like 40% of the NASDAQ 100

that's ridiculous they're so stupid the people that run it should never have that why what if just those five names break so all these things we are watching and again it's not just the market It's logic, everything.

You know, the scams we do shows on scams here. Why would you give money to somebody who called you to tell you won the mega millions jackpot, but you need to send them $6,000 in a Western Union to somebody in Bocca Raton, and then they'll send you the money? Huh? Why would you agree to give somebody that you met in church or temple that tells you they bought cigarettes in Maine and selling them in California and making 100% on your money? Why would you think they would be so nice?

to give you part of that. Logic. Up next, today's market and not so good aftermarket. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access. to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcast. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So I'm sitting here in my office right now. And who's here?

Winston. My great dog. Not feeling great. As I told you, he had cancer, has cancer. and we're dealing with it. He's 10.5 years old. And, you know, we think he's got a while. But you can tell he's a little under, you know,

he's not his normal Winston self. Right, Winston? You doing good? The tails wagon. That's good. So, let's go from the present to this morning. Microsoft closed at $250.60.66. It's 243.28 in the aftermarket. It's only $7.3%. No big deal. But Microsoft is 10.6% of the NASDAQ 100. It's in the Dow. So it won't help the Dow either tomorrow, but not a big deal. Seven bucks is only about 45 Dow points. But Microsoft is 10.5 times what the equal weight should be in the NASDAQ 100. Each should be 1% if you own the equal weight. So that's not good news. Google is 7.2% of the NASDAQ 100 closed at 104.5. I got it 98.5. That's not going to help. That's down about 5.5% in the after market. That's not going to help. And the NASDAQ had a good day today. The NASDAQ 100 had a good day today.

It'll come in in the morning. And then there's Amazon and Apple, which is, by the way, Microsoft is number two waiting. I actually thought it was Amazon. Apple is 13.8% of the NASDAQ 100. That'll be Thursday after the close. And Amazon after the close Thursday is 7%. Also in the aftermarket. And by the way, these stocks have been in bare markets.

Little recovery rallies here with the market recently, but Texas Instruments closed at 162-16, 152-90 in the aftermarket. That's not good news. Skechers, bombed-out Skechers, SKX. That closed at 36. I got it at 32 in the aftermarket. The old high on that was 56. Spotify, that stock has been destroyed, has gone from, and this is one of those other names that we warned you about.

What did we say to you? $387, a company that loses a bunch of money trading at like an $80 billion market cap. It's now 97, and it's now in the aftermarket, 90 in the aftermarket. I haven't even looked at numbers yet. so not great news end phase a solar that had been strong

265 at the close was 290 as soon as they reported but now it's 265 again so it's flat in the aftermarket and let's see if there's anything else sticking out in the aftermarket you know in big aftermarket season terridine looks like it's down a couple of bucks

Visa looks like it's up a whopping 60 cents U Chapo-Ce. Up 60 bucks in the aftermarket. They're selling a lot of burritos. That's all I can tell you. They had good reaction last

time for earnings and now it looks like again. And I'm not even I'm not seeing the earnings. Before the open today, you had good reaction and something called MedP MedP up 59.

bucks to 200 and change. Discovery Financial. On their flat earnings was up four bucks today. MSCI, that's the name of the company. Up 36 bucks to 448. All these stocks in bear markets. SAP, an important software company.

Out of Germany, earnings down 46%. It was still up five bucks. And sure, when Williams, they have nice pay. and only up $7 to $2.20, no big deal. So not a good aftermarket. Of course, there's going to be what is known as these conference calls that can change the playing field.

I'm just looking if there's anything else I need to look at in the aftermarket here. That's going to matter. I can't tell on some of these chub. Ameriprise. I can't tell what the market's doing with them in the aftermarket. So I'm going to beg off of those. I gave you the real important ones. tomorrow before the open Boeing no folks yeah whatever tomorrow so we're going to give the

market wrap now but it's given some of the back in the aftermarket is brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohrabak one of the great market timers no gray areas of the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com doubt 337 S&P up 6 NASDAQ 246, NASDAQ-209, the SOX 53. But I will tell you the NASDAQ 100, it's not that much. It's down 1% in the aftermarket. $3.2.1.2%.

The Dow in the aftermarket is only down 30. The S&P will be down a little bit more about a half percent. And again, a lot more earnings to report. and you're getting some other big names coming in because of when some of the mega caps come down, other mega caps go along with it. So I got a lot of scanning to do tonight. We'll figure out life in general. What I'm less thrilled with, that Texas Instruments,

and I say that because the semis are of vital importance, Texas Instruments just rallied up and they're going to take it right back down. Oh, well. And that is your aftermarket report. That is your little report on today's market. I will tell you of importance was yields today, the 10-year, dropped the 4.108 down 1.26. That's always going to help.

Well, it's been important to help. The dollar was down again today, which when am I going to England and Europe in three weeks? We want the dollar to stay up, by the way. But I already got my euro, so that's the good news. The dollar is due to pull back because it's had a big run. That doesn't mean it's the end of the end. And again, we think the dollar is just the best of the worst that's out there. The bombed out, absolutely bombed out high beta stocks, had a good day today.

We'll see if that lasts. And when I mean bobbed out, I'm talking stocks down 50, 60, 70, 80 percent. And yeah, I keep a watch on the ones that are down 80, 90 percent also. Just, I'm a big believer in four words, the weight of the evidence. And you know how you get the weight of the evidence? You scan them all. You scan them all. And then as always, close your eyes, hold your nose and pray.

And one other thing we didn't mention also that we also do. do our own channel checks. We have some very smart people in industries, not insiders, but just people that know industries. This is one guy that I fall like crazy named Craig Fuller. You can see him on Twitter. The dude is the smartest human being on earth on shipping and moving and trucking and things like that. So I watch everything and he puts up these great charts.

So we watch him. and then there are people I know just industry that have a good feel and I look at certain industries of import. Travel, number one, restaurants, number two, for starters. I can tell you in the chip industry, remember, you do remember like six months ago, we found out, maybe it was more than that. And I got it right here that we found out that the investment. As a matter of fact, it came out in July 1st. Inventory for the big PC makers had skyrocketed, which told us, look out, and guess what stocks have been hit? Eulet Packard, Dell, semiconductors, and the like.

And the story goes, they were cannibalized during COVID. So these are the type of things we do. But most importantly, when we get into bare markets, one of the first things Bill O'Neill told me at the free seminar, If you can become one of the quite few that knows what bare markets look like and act like and are able to avoid it, you get the hint. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.

than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge in the news.

Last night, by the way, I just want to let you know the TSA. I check the checkpoint travel numbers every day. I will let you know that yesterday, what's today, 25th, 24th, the numbers we hit today with the, hit the same numbers as

2019, the 23rd we beat 2019. The 22nd, we beat. We are back to pre-COVID on the TSA for the most part. Some days you're down 5%. And that's what's amazing is that and the airlines better be careful.

If you guys, anybody listening right now that is involved with management of airlines, you better be careful with your pricing. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. last night I watched 40 minutes of the one hour

I watched the other 20 minutes in a little bit the governor's debate between Charlie Christ and Ron DeSantis I got to tell you I have no use for Charlie Chris in that he's a tax hiker which means you're anti-taxpayer he's change of stance

42 different times throughout the years and I must tell you something he said last night piss me off more than anything he just threw out the line made up the line bs the line that ron desantis is the most anti-business governor ever he said that desantis that kept businesses open desantis who opened disney world almost a year before they opened Disneyland in California. I didn't hear Charlie Chris say anything about the governor of California.

You know what that tells me? Another desperate politician who'll just say anything at any time. And yeah, I know politicians and they BS, but man, that was blatant BS. And your handsome and buffed toes Gary does not like blatant BS. And as you know, we call them all out. on both sides. The audience actually laughed at it when he said it. DeSantis, I think, will beat him by seven points minimum in the governor's race. I don't think Charlie Christ has a chance in heck of winning. And there's things I don't agree with DeSantis. I think he's been a little too

hard-headed on a few things. You know what I'm talking about. But I also think he's done a great job in the protection of the citizenry. And logic. You know, we talk here logic. In a world of a lot of illogical, just logic, you know, like to fund the police. How illogical is that to get rid of police in your neighborhood? Tell the criminals, come on over. Go beat the crap out. Everybody steal everything. By the way, some cities have done that. And you know what people are doing. They're just going in and stealing things. So that was less than thrilling. Number one. Number two, speaking of that, great story.

And again, just logical, a socialist Seattle Democrat who pushed the defund the police is now upset. Do you know why? Somebody threw six bags of poop onto this person's lawn and is pissed off that the police didn't do much about it. Really? Want to get rid of the police? But now you need the police. I love socialists and Marxists and defund the police people. Why? Because when they finally need the police, they come running.

And for Portland, got to bring this up. And all you wonderful people in Portland, I get a lot of emails from you guys. The Portland mayor is finally banning the 700 unsanctioned homeless camps that have turned the once trendy city in what people are calling a vortex of misery. By the way, that's people using those words. And I'm stunned at some of the pictures. So now it took this guy wheel with his yachts how long to figure out, we better do something about this because of the crime and businesses running out of here and people saying, get me the hell I'm out of here.

You know what that is? That's your tax base running away. So it looks like the worm is turning a little bit in some of these cities, but you just got to get these illogical people out of office. The number one rule of any leadership in the city, state, county, country is to protect the citizenry. Number two, protect the citizenry. Number three, protect the citizenry. Number four, protect the citizenry.

Number five, protect the citizenry. I've told you here, I tell my kids in New York City, please, if you're going on the train, don't go near the tracks and just look to your left and right at all times. Stand up against the wall. And don't get, if you're going to see some crazies, get the hell out of there. Or have a big stick. I actually have to say that to my kids. And when I'm in the city, you should see me in the subway. Ain't nobody coming near me.

I don't want to have to do that. And now the mayor of New York City finally. Oh, we're going to put more cops on the subway. Hey, thanks. Another guy was thrown onto the tracks this week by a lifer criminal. And the good news is finally they realize, oh, that's attempted murder. Let's put him away for life, finally. Because if you don't, he's just going to do it again.

Protect the citizens. What does this all have to do with you and your money? Well, if we turn into anarchy in this country, the market's going to be, the Dow is going to be a 10,000. There goes your money. If you're in a city where all this crap's going on, your house is going to drop 50%. Your money. Case closed. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Good day to day, not a great aftermarket, and you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. promise. Tomorrow will be on with Charles Payne in the 2 p.m. hour. And same time for this show. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks of being with us. Winston says goodbye. This has been Investors Edge with

Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.