Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - YIELDS PLUNGE [12.13.2023]

Episode Date: December 13, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is the 13th. And we'll stop right there. Let's go backwards. We don't need to go back to 21 or 22. We just have to go back to the last few months. From July to the end of October. From July to the end of October, the 10-year yield romped to the upside.

Along with the 10-year yield, and this is what goes towards mortgages and things like that. Along with the 10-year yield going crazy to the upside, the dollar goes along with it. The higher the yields, the stronger the dollar. If you don't know why, go look it up. There was something extra also at the time, and that was oil prices. Oil prices were going higher. So you have a one, two, three punch that, had the markets tanking into the end of October. The big indices held up best because they are

bigger, monstrous, more liquid. Money flows out of the, what they call the risk on, small and midcaps that are less liquid. Day in and day out, we were saying to you the same words. Listen carefully. Day in and day out we were telling you, 80% of the market is in downtrends. Barish phases of differing levels. Some areas, much worse than others. Almost day in and day out, we were telling you about how bad the advanced decline figures were on a daily basis. For those months, we were pretty much.

much all in cash. We bought some mega cap tech. We made a little money, actually. And then came the end of October. And since we're going to backtrack, since we have been simply staying to you if interest rates keep coming down, that means the dollar keeps coming down, the market should rally. We were saying that before interest rates. rates and the dollar were coming down. The whole thought process was if, if, if, on November 1st, we said to you on the show with no guarantees because there are no guarantees. We said to you on this show, we had what we called a confirmation day.

And all it really means is in the past, if a market was going to turn to the upside, every time the market had turned to the upside, you had one of these confirmation days to the upside. It's called the follow-through day. But of course, as we explain to you also, it's only a day, and you need to seek what we call continuation. And we need to see leadership. And by no coincidence, by no coincidence, that was the day interest rates topped and started coming down. Almost like a confirmation. The next day was November 2nd.

interest rates gaped to the downside and November 2nd, guess what the market did, gaped to the upside. We rallied up to the first area of what we call resistance. And that's just an area. It's just an area where we hit the last high, which takes. me to the other part of our equation. As we have explained to you, bearish phases show certain footsteps. Those footsteps are stair steps going to the downside. You can simply draw a small line on a sheet a paper going horizontal, about an inch, and then drop from there, from north to south, about an inch. And then take that right there, go horizontal to the right again,

about an inch, and then drop again about an inch, then go to the right about an inch, then go to the right about an inch, and then drop again to an inch. Those are stair steps to the downside. on that turn we hit that last stair step to the downside as we rallied up and what happened when we got there you stall a little bit those people who were buying at that point are thanking the Lord they're back to even will tend to sell provide a little resistance and guess what the market did for just a week, sat around. And then what happened?

Well, we take you to November 14th. Guess what happened on November 14th? On November 14th, we had an inflation number. Forget what anybody thinks. Forget the pundits. Forget me. Forget everyone. telling you what's going on. All we know is the 10-year yield sank like a stone. And guess what the

market did? It gapped to the upside off of that. So the market made another stair step to the upside. The first real one off the bottom. And then what did we do? We saw. We saw, started drifting a little bit. The market would, the word is digest. Hey, we went up. It was a real strong day. We're back at resistance. Another area, remember this, another stair step. So we sat around a little bit. And the S&P 500 started getting close within a couple of percent of the old highs. So for the last two to three weeks, the market didn't do anything. But nothing was wrong. We would come on this show and say to you, the only areas that are bearish or in bare trends are oils. And they're not big bear trends, but bear trends, China names, not all,

and a smattering of stuff while everything in the market were pulling the stair steps. Now forget what anybody thinks. It does not matter. Over the last two or three days, we started drifting higher. And why? Yields coming down again. The direct correlation. A singular direct correlation.

which brought us to today, a central bank day. I don't give a crap, what Jay Powell said. I don't give a crap what was in their message. It does not matter to me. You know what I think of him. I don't think he should have a job. Well, at least this job. You know what I think of them.

I don't believe we need central banks. All they have ever done is interfered with free markets and caused all kinds of crazy distortions. Up next. Today, I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, you know, all the talk is about what the Fed's going to do. Are they going to be able to engineer what they call a soft landing? Get inflation down without the economy going into the crapper and this, that, and the other thing. and what have we said to you?

It's that Jay Powell is not the economy. It's 160 million of us waking up early in the morning and going to work, trying to do better for ourselves and our families. We're the economy. He sucks. And the shame of it is he's going to get credit for being an inflation fighter when he caused the inflation. But I digress.

Enough of them. the only thing that matters today and to you is the market's reaction they said this that and the other thing and what they may do next year the people i you know i said i'd get off of them but i need to go a little bit further the people that have been so wrong for so long now know what they're going to do in two thousand and twenty four and basically they had stated yeah they looked to cut rates three times. But what have we told you? The job has already been done. They're at five and a half percent on whatever they do. The 10-year yield, the most important yield out there coming in today was 4.2. Mortgage rates have gone from eight down to low sevens. The market was already doing the job. And of course that would in conjunction helps the market. and most importantly, it helps the underbelly of the market.

Remember, the worst areas into the end of October were small and midcaps. They hate higher rates. And as rates have come down, small and midcaps are stronger than the big caps right now. Not that the big caps aren't strong, but the small and mid get extra juice because they move a little quicker or a lot. In finality today, at the close, before I get into the market, the 10-year yield was crushed again. 1.73 down to 4.03, a gargantuan drop. And due to the fact, we've had a direct correlation between those interest rates and markets, guess what the stock market did. Oh, it's simple.

The NASDAQ was up 1.3%. Now, at 1.3%, it was a great 1.3%. The Dow today was up about 1.4%. It was a great 1.4%. And the areas that have been benefiting from the lower rates, the areas that were dead money into the end of October, guess what the strongest areas were today? Again, regional banks, banks, financials, housing, real estate, real estate investment trust, very strong day-to-day, much stronger than Google, which was flat, Microsoft which was down, and I'm not saying changing the guard, I'm just saying some things rested, other things went up. So without a doubt, the bid in the KRE, the XLF, Regional's Big Banks, Black Rock, Blackstone.

I can list the regional banks, but nah. Housing, LGIH up 10 to 124, Lenar up foreign change to 145, Hovenani up 7 to 147, and in turn, housing-h-related, home Depot. You remember Home Depot that reported a 10% drop in earnings, a 3% drop in sales, three quarters in a row of down sales, but when yields topped, Home Depot bottomed. And Home Depot, not making this up, was it a new yearly low on October 27th? It hit a new yearly high today on December 13th about a 25% move off the low off of lower rates the direct correlation and it wasn't just Home Depot do you know restoration hardware another housing related got crushed three days ago on crappy numbers and a big loss was up 30 bucks today

12% on another big drop in rates direct correlation between housing related and interest rates from housing and pretty much as i'm scanning and screening i can't complain so apple closed at an all time closing high that ain't going to hurt Goldman sacks up 10 that ain't going to hurt even oils were up today. Oil prices were up a buck today, so oils bounced. Even Hershey's was up today. The bottom line, more upside today, on more drop, bigger drop. Simple as that. A bigger drop in yields. Cost of capital. Simple as that. And may I state for the record that Dow is at an all-time closing high today. The S&P is not there. The NASDAQ is not there.

The NASDAQ 100. The Russell ain't even close. Emerging markets aren't close. There's your story. Rates down, mark it up. And that's all you need to know. The New Yearly High List picked up Steam today. And I think a lot of regional bank, not regional, banks maybe,

a real estate investment trusts, utilities turn the corner today, direct correlation on interest rates going down as they are big borrowers. Retail up, why would retail be up? Lower yields. Cost of capital. Only thing, we're overbought,

stretch extended to the upside. But that doesn't matter. Price first, sentiment second. And that is all. Let's hope it continues. As I was doing my screens, more showing up. Up next. Yeah, more are this.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investors end. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion.

Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. So what do this animal... And this animal... And this animal... Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm.

Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there, more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. We're listening to America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

So you're learning something how important the direction of interest rates are to this market. And unfortunately, this dope is going to get the credit. When it's us, that should be getting the credit. They created the inflation. The inflation's coming down for two reasons. Price causes inflation to come down. And they had to do the unprofit. opposite of what they did to cause the inflation. The next part I want to mention to you also is

until the market says otherwise there is no chance for the predicted recessions. Three months ago, we said we thought the economy is on the ledge. But unless we lose the job market, we're okay. We haven't lost the job market. 3-7. We haven't lost the job market. 3-7. We with some warts, a little tired, but we haven't lost the job market. And there's your story. And the best way I can explain it, one, two, three, four, five, six, from six to seven weeks, about six and a half weeks, Home Depot has gone from new yearly lows to new yearly highs with the direct correlation of interest rates. And that is all.

best way I can explain it. What's next? Well, there's this little rule on Wall Street that the whatever move you get in the market on a Fed day, the next day will be an opposite. That's supposedly the rule. We'll see. all I can tell you is I saw a bunch of financials

lighten up like a pinball machine today the junk bond ETFs the HYG and the JNK break out of one year trading ranges and then Vornado Realty Trust New Yearly High

S.L. Green Realty, New Yearly High. Simon Property Group, new yearly high. They were at New Yearly Low six to seven weeks ago. Need I say more? I've already scanned 1,500 stocks. Believe it or not, I'm going to do it again in about a half hour. Yeah, in an hour. Got to get my workout in.

Okay. In the news, you know, let me back up. Some of the things you should be doing right now or tonight, just start scanning the new yearly high list, and you'll notice, whoa, look at these banks. Wait a minute, look at the banks were new yearly low six weeks ago. And then go look at the 10-year yield. Oh, okay, there you go.

Let's keep that in mind. Let me repeat another thing. The only thing I can say is things are stretch extended and overbought. potentially you get pullbacks. I don't know if you're going to. But when I scan, I do it without any bias. No ulterior motive, no agenda. And as I look at Blackstone, BX,

breaks out of a cup and handle today. Volume picked up. When I look at, by the way, we're not telling you to buy him, sell him short, in a cover. I'm just telling you, I take a step back, Black Rock. Deep cup breaks out almost, not yet, little bit low, but looks like it's going to be ready.

And then I just keep going one by one, and then I'll start making lists. Oh, wait a minute, hold on. Black, rock, blah. Oh, these are all financials. Oh, financials. Because just remember about markets. Stocks move like schools of fish. You got that?

Anyway, now we move on. In the news. In the comedy, comedic news of the day. They had this Dubai, by the way, one of my favorite cities in the world now. It took me one trip to Dubai to say, I love this place. And just remember, places are about people. The people were fantastic there. Fantastic.

Whether I went into the malls, into the food courts or the retail stores, the hotels, the beaches, the restaurants. It was like everybody from the bus boys up were trained by the four seasons in Ritz Carlton. So nice, so polite. I loved it. Anyway, they had the climate conference there. Mucho. people around the globe flew their private jets into Dubai to tell us we need to conserve ourselves,

even though one trip in that private jet is equal to our car for our whole life. Not kidding. Anyway, they came to an agreement. I'm not going to tell you what the agreement is because no one's going to stick to the agreement. Just letting you know. You know, they did this Paris thing years ago? Not one country has complied with what they were supposed to do on carbon this and carbonate. As John Kerry was there preaching to us how we suck on the climate while he gets into his private jet that takes him to his yacht that his wife earned.

well, she was Heinz. That's our comedy of the day. In the news, well, I guess you can call this comedy of the day, that just the normal money grubbing, average corrupt, influence peddling, piece of crap, Hunter Biden. He was front and center today. He was supposed to do testimony.

in front of the house and said he corralled the media to play the victim. I'm the victim. Yes, I'm a thief. I didn't pay my taxes. It's all because of the drugs. I got newsfea. I know a lot of people that did a lot of drugs that aren't thieves and corrupt. With the families collected 20-some-odd million bucks from different countries,

the globe and did nothing to earn it and then the media blacks it out so you don't know it and refuse to even investigate it and anybody who does that's just revenge because you'd love Trump it's so much fun to watch all this my dad had nothing to do with it this that and the other thing blah blah just because the whole Biden family is an influence peddling corrupt piece of crap. Oh, it has nothing to do with my father that they were influence peddling off of him. And somehow he's worth a lot of money now. But let's not investigate.

I guess that's our second comedy of the day. Right? And by the way, for those of you who get mad that I do this, that, and the other thing on Bidens and stuff, just remember, we can't stand any of them. We're equal opportunity here. I think we rip Trump and the Republicans more than we rip. No, we can't because the Marxists are just plain Marxists, but you get my point. Anyway, he was out there playing the victim today, and that was fun.

I love it. Look at me. Do you know he made like millions of dollars, and on purpose, did not pay his taxes. He's going to pay now. Up next, what else I got for you? We'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our program,

are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. What do this animal... And this animal... And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm.

Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutrition. milk and cheese. Learn more at ovee.coop and taste the difference. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge.

With Gary Culpa. Well, in other news, well, just so you know, as you know, I could not work out for four months. I ended up with these massive gargantuan back spasms. Just out of nowhere. I don't know where it came from what. And as I said to you, I think I've told you this.

When you hear the word back spasms, you're not thinking, or at least I wasn't thinking excruciating pain. When I went to the back part people, which happened to be a surgeon also, I'm thinking he's telling me I got a disc problem. I got a nerve problem. Oh, holy crap, because it was like it took me down to my knees. It was that bad.

And the surgeon looks at me and says, you got back spasms. Back spasms. And I said, you tell me a back spasm is going to make me, I almost cried a couple of times. He goes, you're damn straight, they will. And the amazing part about it is, well, first off, I put it out to you guys, and I got like 2,500 emails about all your back problems. Anyway, the doctor says to me, here's what you got to do.

Physical therapist, these exercises, what I think happened with you, because I had this injury with my back years ago from the tennis days, is that you are crunched up in there and you've got to stretch that sucker out because it's attacking this, that, and the other thing, this that. And once you get stretched out, you're going to stay stretched out. You're going to keep stretching every day the rest of your life in the morning at night, these same stretches. And you're going to be great and you're going to feel so much better. And then I would go on Instagram and all these people are on Instagram that are specialists showing you all these stretches. So I added those in also.

And he actually said to me, I think it'll take about 12 weeks. And I could tell you to the 12th week, I was good. It was like on a Sunday I had the worst back spasm ever And then it was gone But I had a gingerly Play around it for a while Didn't work out for another month

But now we're working out again And everything's great Just letting you know I'm getting shredded again Working out like a madman My big thing is I never watch Friends And now with the guy who died I decided to watch it

So what I do is I go on the incline trainer At the 10 to 15 incline And I watch 20 minutes at a time The Friend Shows and I'm already in the fourth season already. So life is, everything's working out. Just letting you know stay in shape, stretch, work out, eat well. You know what I think about alcohol and drugs?

It sucks. They're overrated. Just you all take care of yourself, especially as you get older men. Let me explain how it works in case you think you're cool. Every day you get older, it gets tougher. You have to work out harder. And as you get in your 40s and even higher, oh yeah so just letting you know and men if you're really really really out of shape you can change that

i am telling you you can change it but you're going to have to do something about it no more eight hostess twinkies before you go to sleep you know that type of stuff no more seven beers at a football game maybe three just you know what to do that's that story and of course we usually start the show with Israel, but we'll finish up on Israel here. I guess we're picking on Joe Biden again because all of a sudden, Joe Biden with the diary of the mouth, coming out and saying, Israel's got to be careful now because they're losing, you know, support around the globe. Shut up.

A country defending themselves being told what to do by a president of the United States who's not defending this country. What, huh? Do you know how many people? I dare you to go check how many people have gotten through the border since Joe Biden became president and changed some of the rules. I double dare you. You'll vomit.

And then what I'd like you to do, go look at the quotes from the administration. The guy from Homeland Security, Majorcas, admitting, oh, there's a bunch of these godaways and we don't know who they are. And he was asked, do you think any of them can be terrorists? He answered yes. So Joe Biden's telling another country

what to do about defending their country while he's, I bet you he's staying up at night wondering if we're going to get hit by one of these people coming through Mexico because you know what happens to his presidency if that happens? So just let you.

You know that, and the other part of the equation is, and we're not idiots here. We're not stupid here. We don't want any loss of life, any innocent loss of life. Are you freaking kidding me? You know how to talk about war throughout the ages that there's always been innocent loss of life? It's on in Ukraine. Well, that's Russia. Anyway, you get my point.

We don't want to see any of that. So we know what goes on. The good news is, on top of what the media are reporting, they are really making inroads on the terrorists. The amount of terrorists that they have got that are never going to see the light of day ever again is a ton. Now, who knows how many more they're out there, but they are definitely making inroads. Those tunnels, they're going to be all gone. The weaponry, they ain't going to have crap left. They're going to have to start all over again if they want to do something bad going forward.

I can promise you that. And these schmucks call and cease fire when you have a country trying to defend themselves after 1,200 people were brutally murdered? Yeah, sure, right. And for these people that continue to call for the death of Jews, we give them no quarter. racism, bigotry, you can all kiss my you know what. Don't tell me you're not when you say nothing, say nothing about Russia, what they're doing in Ukraine, Syria, Haiti, Cuba, North Korea, China, Sudan, Nigeria. I can walk through all these places, Venezuela, so we know what's happening here. and from years ago, never forget, we ain't going to forget this either.

We can promise you that. Hey, thanks for joining. I'll be on with Stuart Varney tomorrow, 10 a.m. hour, do not miss that Fox Business Network. And until tomorrow, have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody. Peace out, my friends. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. What do this animal... And this animal?

And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious

milk and cheese. Learn more at ove.coop and taste the difference.