Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Yields Tanking!
Episode Date: December 7, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
Do you know what today is, right?
It's December 7th.
Check it out.
If you did not know, you're going to really need to check it out.
if you don't know.
It's Pearl Harbor.
And you should know what happened.
The whole story.
Changed the world.
Change the face of the world.
And if you haven't been to Pearl Harbor,
the Arizona,
the last time I was there,
a very elderly gentleman was there
who was there the day of December 7th, 41,
telling his stories to kids.
And I sat down with all the kids to listen.
Just brave men and women.
And man, oh man, I think we got it pretty damn good, you know.
Anyway, hope you having a good day.
If you don't get this show in your city, this radio show,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed.
You can follow me on Twitter.
And you know what's happening all of a sudden?
Remember I told you I had 90,000 Twitter followers,
and then all of a sudden one night I had 30,000 out of nowhere.
And I never really checked because you try to contact Twitter at the time.
They don't answer you, you know, blah, blah, blah.
And they shut me down for a day.
You know what's happening all of a sudden the last couple of days?
I got like 100 new followers today.
I haven't seen that in ages.
So I think it's back to somewhat normal as,
and we're finding out so many bad things about these people running Twitter
that did not give a crap about free speech, pick sides, you name it.
So actually this is working out pretty well,
and we'll keep your breast of the situation.
And of course, you can email me, and all you got to do is be nice.
You know why?
Because I'm nice.
If I had friends, they would tell you.
No, really.
Ladies and gentlemen, I want to start with a few things that have to do with you and your money.
As you know, we are one of the people over the last few years telling you that crypto was just a freaking bubble.
That was our line.
And nobody listened to me.
Nobody listened to me.
You know why?
The old line, nothing's bad as long as prices going up.
nobody cared, nobody listened.
In fact, we got a lot of hate mail,
got a couple of death threats.
We knew they were fake death threats,
but nevertheless, people are sick in the mind
with fake email addresses.
And of course, all hell is broken loose.
Little did we even know
that they came out with 20,000 coins.
You can go to a website called
coin ranking.com and you will see they came out with 22,000 coins. You know what that means.
I don't know how many people that is, whatever amount of people were all trying to imitate
the Doji coin, which came out as a joke and went to 70 cents. I think it's now 7 cents. I don't
even know why it's not zero. And all kinds of weird names. And we've made fun.
of them here. The good news is most of them never got off the ground. The bad news is a bunch of
them did. Actually, Doji coin is nine cents. Look at that. It went up a little bit. And there are some
that are still priced and who knows what happens with them, but most of them did what we said
would do. And we just coined the phrase, 90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most going
to zero. We also stated that we thought with a theory.
and Bitcoin, we think they'll probably stand because there was just a select few people that
owned all of it or most of it and they couldn't sell or they'd kill each other.
And then there were some others that came out.
I'm not even going to mention the names, it doesn't matter.
And then you got these exchanges and then Coinbase went public.
And very simply that day we said, just so you know, this company went public to trade
bubbles and the stock what was it a trying to remember what price it came out of well let me put it
this way it was $429 the first day it opened closed it $328 in case you did not know and we just
warned you what did we say it was born just to be a bubble the
trade bubbles, which means the stock was going to get destroyed.
And of course, the stock was destroyed.
A high of 429, it closed today at 41.
No, really.
It closed today at 41.
And of course, you have a bunch of other things that happen, this micro-strategy idiot,
that change the whole company and just bought coins.
and the stock's destroyed and he's gone, as well as many other things.
Another part of what we said was, as usual, in bubbles at the end, we're going to find criminals.
We called them goblins.
And of course, here's your FTX.
Now, there are others.
In case you don't know, there's a stable coin that went from price to zero overnight.
I'm not hearing anybody indicted on that or anything.
even though it's called stable coin.
Miami came out with the Miami coin.
It's down, what, 98% or something?
Mark Cuban came out with a coin went to zero overnight.
Dennis Rodman came out something with the pot coin.
Everybody was trying something.
And we're just simply telling you it's just a freaking bubble.
There's no sales, no earnings, no whatever.
Which leads me to this guy at FTX.
I have to tell you this is just an opinion.
This is just an opinion.
I think some politicians took a crap load of money underneath the table from this guy
because that would be the only answer why they are not ripping him to shreds from top to bottom.
Why the politicians have been kind of clothes mouth on it.
Now we know this guy gave a crap load of money to the politicians.
Obviously, that's one of the reasons.
But something else is up.
And I will tell you, I will scream at the top of my lungs,
at the top of the Empire State Building,
if this guy is not indicted.
That will tell you that these creeps in D.C.,
money first, protections of victims, second.
They did the same thing in 2008.
Massive fraud by all these head honchos at Wall Street.
Not one of them was indicted, even though they committed massive fraud in plain sight, almost bringing down the house.
So we want to let you know how we know this guy's a crook. His girlfriend's a crook.
Crook it is made off or maybe worse. The interviewers did not ask the simple question.
Where's the freaking money?
We said this to him before. We're saying it again.
it's amazing that we watch these long interviews
where's the freaking money
if you have a bank account your money's in a bank
your money's in a bank account
it cannot move without you wanting it to move
if you have a brokerage account
at Schwab at Fidelity wherever
your money cannot move unless you want it to move
or the IRS gets in there and garnishes it
I think they got some power on that
Nope.
They went all the way around and let the guy obfuscate and not answer the question.
Well, I don't know.
My girlfriend.
Where's the freaking money?
You are the president's CEO, head honcho, top dog, big cheese.
Where's the money?
The next specific question, did you move it?
Next specific question.
If you didn't move it, who moved it?
And where is the trail?
Who has the trail?
Did you destroy the trail?
Because if money moves from an account to an account, there's got to be a trail.
It just doesn't move.
The only answer is they're crooks.
They took it upon themselves and here's what I think happened.
These ass clowns started buying into all these coins and lost everybody's money.
That's what happened.
They commingled it.
They committed fraud.
They should be in jail for up to 100 years, if not more.
But the politicians have been quiet.
Isn't that interesting?
Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it and then lots to cover today.
I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, where's the outrage?
Have you noticed the last?
of outrage? You know when they caught Madoff? There was outrage. Politicians were pissed off.
They wanted his head. They perp walked him. They followed him around the blocks. Do you see any of that now?
Mark my words, something's up. We're going to find out this guy gave so much money to every
freaking politician on both sides of the aisle.
That's why they're hush, hush.
These creeps in D.C. that have taken us the $31 trillion
of debt took crap loads of money from this guy and are
saying nothing.
Not a word.
This man and his girlfriend should be locked up,
the key thrown away,
six by nine sell, not in a club fed,
never to be seen again.
Instead of listening to it,
this whinny little
can't say the word
with his stupid hair
have you noticed
that's how we know he's crooked as crooked can be
that's how we know they're criminals
the politicians who got
crap loads of money have shut their mouths
move on to some other news item
and do we think the media
is even going to try to uncover it
because you know they black out things they need to
black out. You know the media is not the media. They're supposed to be the final wall for us,
the defenders of the citizenry, protect us from the ills of the powerful. But really all they are
is to protect us, protect us of the ills of the powerful they don't like while kissing the ass
of the people they do like saying nothing. You do know that. Have you figured it out yet? Because
they're doing it in plain sight.
This latest Twitter escapade
where we're finding out Twitter
stomped on free speech.
They're saying is no big deal.
And it's just made up.
That's how you know it's a big deal.
Not being reported.
It's selective.
They suck.
They're not journalists.
And we're going to be a loud voice on this creep in the Bahamas as we move forward.
I didn't lose a penny.
Other people lost their life savings.
Politicians don't care about that.
They've got to protect their own, you know what's.
Next, you may have never heard of this man.
You may have, I'm sure I have mentioned them on this show.
Kevin Martyr, who I met many years ago, a William O'Neill devotee.
one of the brightest, classiest men I have known passed away at the age of 66.
I had no idea he was ill.
My friend Gil Morales announced it on Twitter today.
May this man rest in peace.
He has been a big help to me throughout my life.
Whenever I ask him a question, he was always around.
He was the same for everybody else.
And one of the great eyes in the business, it turns out he had some sort of illness the last few years.
It worsened recently.
and rest in peace, Kevin Mortar.
And from that, we do have to segue into other things, don't we?
Herschel Walker, lost in Georgia.
The flu beat the pneumonia, or pneumonia beat the flu.
You got the guy who won who's being accused by his ex-wife or something from trying to run her down
versus another guy who's being accused for domestic violence,
who also was totally pro-life, except when he's.
his girlfriends get pregnant. How'd you like these guys in the Senate? If the Republican Party
continues to let Trump put up a cast of characters, the Republican Party will lose. They should have
won 15 to 20 seats based on everything on the ground in the house, and they won what? A couple.
And they lost ground in the Senate. Need I say more? Next, I want to bring up Carvana. Carvana today
CVNA is the symbol
down $2.88
to $3.83
the weekly high
was just last August at $377
closed at $383.
And it looks like odds favor
they're going to be filing bankruptcy
and have to redo all their debt
which probably wipes out the stockholder.
Why am I bringing this up?
number one the stock topped out around September 2nd of 2021 no I take that back
that's the day it broke that was somewhere around the 330 range nowhere would I
have known that it would go from 330 down to 3.83 cents but we know when something
goes into a bare market and never touch it as it goes through its bare market we
want you to remember this because throughout this whole bare market we've been whining
complaining about stocks topping out and getting out of the way the latest being the
oil stocks not almost the other part of the equation was eventually I was right do you
know in 18 I said I don't know how this company stays in business and then I
watched this stock just skyrocketed skyrocketed i believe it went from 45 to 370 without me while all i
kept thinking is wait a minute hold on they can't ultimately compete well i was eventually right
and i don't know exactly what happened but debt is not your friend and big auto competition not your
friend either. And I've been told by people when you had the issue with the use cars and prices
going all awry, that they would pay too much and lose on a lot of cars. That's what I hear.
Anyway, lessons learned, ladies and gentlemen, that's a big one. Up next, market wrap. Lots to cover there.
I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
Highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to them.
Full and fair disclosure, as I always tell you, I never trade, speculate, invest in companies with no sales.
And specifically, biotex, because there's been a ton of them throughout the years.
Full and fair disclosure, I have never made any money on the ones that have skyrocketed or the few that have been bought out.
full and fair disclosure i've never lost my butt to where you wake up in the morning and you hear
the placebo does better than the drug in phase two trials and the stock goes from 80 down to two
overnight by the way i saw one of those happen it was like 80 down to two so just letting you know
i did not own prometheus biosciences going into today a company with very really doesn't have
revenues. I think they got some fees for something. Loses a ton of money.
Has been public since 2021. It was up today, 165% to $95.80 because of some drug thing and some whatever.
And of course, very smart people after the close, they announce a secondary offering.
Very good move. Somebody's cashing out. Anyway.
$250 million of shares in an underwritten public offering.
Somebody's got to be selling.
Just letting you know.
Today's market wrap, by the way, isn't it amazing that these interviews that the FTCS guy did a roundabout questions instead of just hitting them point blank between the eyes, where's the freaking money?
It's amazing.
How hard is it to be a tough journalist?
They treated him as a guest.
He's not a guest.
He's a crook.
Oh, Gary, innocent before guilty.
Okay, he's innocent where tens of billions of dollars are missing.
Today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timer.
No gray areas with demand.
You're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment-models.com.
Now, it's the innards that will matter when I give you out these numbers.
The Dow is up one.
Same thing.
What do we mean by that?
Do you know for the year the Dow is only down 7.5% but the NASDAQ's down 30?
One of our worries.
Why?
Risk off.
Remember, these big institutions have to be invested.
They're risking off.
Park the money.
Go buy travelers and Procter & Gamble.
And Johnson and Johnson.
That way, when things really go awry, we can get out easier because they're very liquid, very boring, very what we call low beta.
What's low beta?
Well, when the market's up strong and the bull market, Tesla would be up 80 points.
Proctrine Gamble would be up 12 cents.
That's low beta.
Tesla being a high beta.
S&P down 7, but with the Dow up 1,
NASDAQ down 56, NASDAQ 100 down 52,
and to be clear,
the Dow had a rally back up like 60 or 70 points in the last half hour,
or the NASDAQ would have been down 80 or 90.
Transport's down 130.
New yearly lows on the NASDAQ 287,
new yearly highs, hardly any.
New Yearly Lows on the New York, 96, New Yearly Hays.
You're hoys?
Hardly any.
You know what I got for New Yearly highs?
You ready?
Campbell Soup.
General Mills.
ConAgra.
What those three have in common?
Oh, yeah, recession-resistant.
But I must say, Academy Sports, don't ask me why, breaks out into New Yearly highs on Get This earnings report.
earnings minus three revenues minus six just letting you know reporting the news um
Casey's general stores is new yearly highs I think that what is that supermarket I've never
been in one I guess they're in the Midwest but they got thousands of convenience stores right
smuckers New Yearly High what does that have in common with the rest you got it
recession resistant food drug beverage tobacco household products but that's really it for New
yearly high, so very defensive market. And when you have a chance, and we say this every day,
go look at a chart of the Dow versus the NASDAQ. Amazing. But what do I really want to talk about?
Since last November and December, there's been what we call two words, direct correlation
between interest rates dropping and the market going higher,
a direct correlation with interest rates skyrocketing,
and the market getting trashed.
That is hardly wavered.
For a whole year, we have said to you,
we worry what would happen
if interest rates go down and the market keeps going down,
down and what would it signal? What would it signify? Well, it may be at hand because I have to tell you,
in the last two days, the 10-year yield, this is what ties your mortgages, has gone from 3.6 to 3.4,
in two days. In those two days, the NASDAQ has gone. If I can get it right, you know what I have,
by the way, ladies gentlemen, butterfingers. I can't get it on the number. Let's call it 11-239 to 10-958.
The market's dropping on lower yields? For a whole year, the NASDAQ would have good days on lower yields. Instead,
that's not happening.
What gives?
The Dow also dropped about 500 points.
Again, what gives?
Has everything changed?
Well, as we have told you, correlations won't last forever.
We have told you many years ago,
it used to be the money supply in the markets.
Then there was the GM indicator.
Then, of course, it was the Internet.
in 1999.
All we can tell you, for the time being, that looks to be changing,
as the market really could not get any toll hold today,
as rates plunged another stick today.
And oil prices drop two bucks today.
Just so you know, fundamentally,
that's price at the pump going down,
price to airlines going down,
expense to airlines and truckers going down that's cost of mortgages going down cost the capital going
down so why the hell would the market be going down here's your potential answer the market is now
telegraphing big economic trouble as we move forward that would be the answer the market telegraphing
because of that earnings are too high and will have to come down market telegraphing valuation
are too high and we'll have to come down.
Notice we use the word potentially.
We're just letting you know that would be the
easiest reason to guess
and pretty darn good guess.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
But wow.
And in case you don't know, it's been the NASDAQ
that's had the most movement based on it.
And it was still down market.
all day to day with hardly a bid. Up next, more on that in a minute. Thanks for being here. I'm
Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture
X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel
credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you
by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,
you're probably already a podcaster.
is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's
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meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at
spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well
publish it.
Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel
credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
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to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Investors Edge with Gary Culper.
And walk once again to Investors Edge.
So we're letting you know that is really to be watched.
Fundamentally great news.
Oil prices down to 72 bucks today.
That's terrific.
Great at the pump.
Great to the business.
People who manufacture tires.
Great petroleum, all the petroleum products.
Help with inflation.
Yields.
We've gone from 4-3 on the 10-year to 3.4.
That's huge.
Huge move down.
Oh, by the way, we called the top also.
So fundamentally, yeah.
But if it's telegraphing a big drop in quote-unquote demand,
that would be the reason why the market would get in even more trouble from here.
So keep that in your file manager of importance.
Because as we have told you, our little channel checks, which are pretty darn good,
not thrilled with a lot that we're seeing.
Namely, credit card usage skyrocketing while savings rates are plunging.
Now, housing became a problem because rates skyrocketed to 4-3 on the 10-year
maybe coming down to 3-4 is going to help.
We'll see.
We're open.
Amazingly, the two-year yields at 4.27, as we told you, the reason that is,
is the bet that the short-term yields will eventually get squashed.
And it turns out it was better to buy the 10-year yield at 4.3.
you got some good principal gain off of that.
Remember, as yields come down, principle goes up on bond market.
In case you did not know.
So we may be at a moment.
Not sure yet, just a few days of it, but leave no doubt.
For this second, quite the change from the norm of the last year.
quite the difference from the direct correlation from the last year.
Now, I know there's many out there. They're out there. Oh, 20203, it's going to be a big gargantuan recession.
Unemployment's going to 8, 9 percent. The market's gone to 2,500. You know what our answer to that is.
we'll let the market to decide.
The one thing that remains
sticking up.
Late breaking news, you're ready for this bull crap?
Are you ready?
The House Financial Services Committee
our government doesn't, that's a dozen,
plan to subpoena,
Sam Bankman-Freet to testify in hearing on FTX.
By the way, that's happening right now.
That just came out.
What did I tell you?
you. The fix is in. These people got craploads of donations from this guy. The fix is in. We the people are getting conned again. Who runs the House Financial Services Committee?
Maxine Waters, right? She's getting a letter from me and a phone call. Services Committee,
chair men, but I guess chairwoman.
Maxine Waters.
There you go.
We're going to have to file a lawsuit.
I think we're going to have to file a lawsuit
to get some action on this.
Okay, where was I?
I forgot where I was.
I lost my place.
Anyway, as we move into the holidays,
we're going to be watching these yields
about as close as close can be
in relation to the market.
The next thing,
year to watch. I'm going to give you out numbers. The NASDAQ 10-916 is the 50-day moving average.
You got that? The NASDAQ 100, 11367, a little farther away, and the Russell 2000 at 1789, closed at 1812.
Why am I giving you those 50-day moving averages?
Because they better hold.
You got that?
Because if they don't, the big money, the big institutions will recognize it.
And guess what they do?
In an already tippity market at this juncture.
Oils, financials, regional banks, looks like they have top pretty good.
They're a decent part of the market.
Big tech, megatech, the high beta growth type, software, all that stuff, hadn't even gotten going.
Now, off the lows, but still remain in big bear markets.
You don't want to lose too many more, and you don't want to see too many more New Yearly lows come in, which happened today.
New Yearly lows today picked up pretty decently, especially
on the NASDAQ.
And again, we are worried that the NASDAQ continues to labor.
It is hardly off the bare market lows.
And I'm looking at the new yearly lows on the NASDAQ.
Kind of sort of who's who.
Vodafone, Lyft, for starters, Z scale.
Zion's Bank Corp, Smith & Wesson,
bunch of regional banks, will be ready.
that all said you all have a great evening drive carefully
and when you get home do like we do quite simple
make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children
they will feel better you will feel better I promise
congratulations to Aaron Drudge
360 million bucks over nine years
he earned it the market says so
and tomorrow will be on with Varney and company 11 a.m. hour
on Fox business and we'll be right back at this time
on this show. Thanks to joining us. Good night, all.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital
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