Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - You were warned! [04.16.2025]
Episode Date: April 16, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colpom, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
I believe it is, I don't even know what day it is.
It's Wednesday.
It's the 16th of April.
It's 2025.
And, oh, we've got a lot.
lot to cover. I must tell you, I'm going to give out the final numbers on the market at the
outset of the show and tell you that the numbers are pretty good, considering. And then we'll do
the introductions. The Dow is down 699 points today. 39669. The S&P 121 to 5275.
the NASDAQ 516 to 16307, the NASDAQ 10572 to 18257.
The SOX, the important Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, down at Juicy, 165.
The transports down 301.
Why do I say, boy, is that good?
because I don't know there was a few minutes left in the market today
and I will tell you I'm going to start with the semis which are so important
they hit 3734 at around 330, 3.30, 325 330 and rallied up 123 points into the close.
They were actually down 300 at one time.
And when I mean they rallied, I don't see a, I'm on the one minute bar.
I don't see, I think I see two down one minute bar.
So they were jumping on that.
I also want to mention that the NASDAQ was at that time, you ready for this?
Down 756.
And I'm not saying down 516 is good, but dang.
They really jumped on at the end of the day, but it was a rough day.
Now the introductions.
Hey, I'm Gary Caldbaum.
I'm the guy who's been telling you and guiding you away from the markets and which areas to avoid,
which has basically been everything except gold and some defensive areas.
Yeah, that's me.
Because we're serious.
And it's serious talk about everything that affects you while everybody else is saying,
you got to buy Nvidia and think out three to five years.
And we hate doing that, but we care so much about every dime of your capital that sometimes we've got to be a little bit doofus-like.
And we talk markets.
We talk, unfortunately, tariffs.
We talk confusion.
We pull no punches.
We have no ulterior motive agenda of bias when it comes to Washington, D.C.
We hate them all.
We don't care if it's a Trump or a Biden or an Obama or a Bush or a Clinton or the other Clinton.
It does not matter us.
We are only interested in you.
Good policy and get the hell out of our way.
and unfortunately, this administration does not stop.
And I know a lot of you love him.
I love a lot of things he has done.
We'll explain the minute.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed,
which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
If you'd like to email me,
all you've got to do is be nice.
You know why?
Because we'll be nice back.
Unless you like Hamas.
then we won't be so nice.
So it was a rough day.
I mean a good close,
and I'm wondering if any news came out late in the day
to try to stem the tide.
I don't see anything except I don't know.
And what caused today?
I don't know.
I really don't care.
Remember, for me, it's not the news.
It's how markets react to the news.
I can tell you, Nvidia at one time today, and they rallied it.
By the way, Envidia rallied, get this, from $100.67 to $10455 at the close was still down $7.71 today.
The story goes is that the U.S. government is doing this, that, and the other thing to Nvidia and AMD.
I think that's the best way I can explain it to you.
This, that, and the other thing.
They're taking a 5.5 billion charge.
President Trump banned their GPUs to China, which escalates the trade war.
So I don't know what's right or wrong and whether that's the right thing to do,
but it penalizes them and the stock was hit, the semis were hit,
and maybe Trump changed his mind late in the day,
and it got leaked and somebody did an illegal insider trading again like they did right before he announced the two flip-flops and yes, that was going on.
We'll find out overnight if that changed anything.
I don't know, but it was a rough day.
And I will tell you, for the record, I have no clue what happens tomorrow.
But good close.
So that's the story with Envidia.
And then late in the day, Jay Powell, as you know, we think there should not be a central bank.
And we think Jay Powell is between him and Bernanke, two of the worst ever.
And Jay Powell made some comments, which, by the way, I actually appreciate.
The market wasn't happy and pundits weren't happy, but I appreciate it because I know it's right.
They don't.
The less of him, the better.
and he said he wants to wait to see what happens before they do any type of anything as far as lowering rates.
And the market got trashed on that news.
I guess the market's expectation was that he's going to be friendly to that, and I guess he was not.
And the market did not like that.
So people are pissed at him now.
But I'm not.
Do you know why?
I don't want easy money.
I want them out of the way.
I want them all out of the way
Go away, stay away from us, leave us alone
What was strong today?
Gold
Gold was real strong
Gold miners
Because oil prices were up
Oils were up today
And that was it
The advanced declines
Not good, up down, you know
It was just not a good day
Small caps, midcaps, not a good day
Bitcoin was up a little bit
Yippie, yeah, yeah
I'm trying to keep my feet on the ground.
I put out some rules today that I put out every bare market,
and I'm going to read them to you.
You're going to take them for what it's worth.
In bull markets, surprises happen to the upside.
In bare markets, surprises happen to the downside.
NVIDIA today.
surprises happening to the downside. In bull markets, bad news is not a biggie. In bull markets,
bad news is not a biggie. I can tell you if we were in a bull market, if the invidia types
are in a bull market right now, that news today, I'd have been down a couple of bucks. And in bull
markets, good news is bought up with a fervor. In bare markets, good news is ignored.
And bad news is squashed.
Bull markets have, well, this is a little technical.
Bull markets have price ascending above an ascending 50-day moving average for most of the time,
and all pullbacks into and around it successfully get defended.
Bare markets have priced descending below a descending 50-day moving average,
and all bounces into and around it fail.
In bare markets, unfortunately, Wall Street never changes.
They will tell you to buy all the way down until price is so far down,
quietly change their stripes, and I will tell you a ton of target drops by Wall Street in the last few days.
They also keep telling you to buy past leaders, not knowing that studies have shown past leaders are the most vulnerable when bare markets occur as they become the most over-owned, over-loved, and over-leverage names in the bull market.
And when things turn, institutions realize they have too much, and they must come off their gigantic-sized ownership.
Bear markets, here's the good news.
Bear markets afford a keen eye towards the end of the bear markets.
Let me tell you what we mean by that.
The next leaders of the new bull market, after a bear market, will show up.
Up next, we'll explain how to find them.
I'm Gary. This is one only. Investors Edge.
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So, bear markets again afford a keen eye
towards the end of the bare markets
as the markets are still going down,
but getting close to the end of the bare market.
The next leaders will not go to new lows,
they'll start defending themselves,
start moving higher as the market continues to head lower,
and then start building stair steps,
and volume will be heavy on the up days,
light on the down days,
and then when the market decides the bare market is over,
they shoot out of a cannon.
And I'll be able to come on this show and say,
Hey,
Coltbaum Company
was up 8% today
breaking out of a six-month
trading range,
volume,
was five times average
indicating institutions
were jumping all over each other
to get the stock.
Even before that,
relative strength lines
will soar to the upside
because there's so much stronger
than everything else.
There is also,
usually three legs down in a bare market, and quite often the last leg is the most vicious.
Because what the last leg does is it really washes people out that give up hope.
Just get me the hell out of the market.
I don't want anything to do with it.
I'm losing too much.
And that was after already a big move down.
That's what usually happens in the third leg.
And we'll see.
of course other little rules bear market rallies are often sharp quick make everyone feel good
suck you in and then screw you very quickly i don't know where we are in this bearish phase drop
whatever you want to call it because i have to tell you we are in officially the most news-driven
environment ever by far and unfortunately and i'm sorry they don't shut up they don't clam up
every day it's something new every day it's it's another number today they're threatening 200
45% tariffs on China and then they say, no, no, no, we meant 145% tariffs on China.
And then it's going to be on this, that, and the other thing.
It's a nightmare from this administration.
They just don't clam up.
And everything's a freaking tariff.
I wish they were listening to this show.
I can remedy this in a nanosecond.
And you know what they need to do?
Do you remember the first Superman movie with Christopher Reeve when Lois Lane died?
Christopher Reed flew backwards around the globe and took time backwards like it never happened?
That's what they need to do and just drop the whole freaking tariff thing and never say the word again.
That's the remedy.
Give in.
Give up.
Nobody will be mad at you.
give in, give up, roll it back. That was a sneeze. Actually, too. That's what they need to do.
Go watch that Superman movie. It's like it never happened because I got news for you.
Unfortunately, we've been right, they've been wrong. Tariffs are the worst thing to do.
And the problem is the conservative Republican Party that has hated tariffs for
ever because they're always for free markets and using tariffs is controlling markets.
They won't say a damn word to the president on it.
And some of them are actually out there.
Well, you know, it's kind of like a tool.
Go screw.
They don't work.
But wait a minute, don't they do it to us?
Yeah, but who cares?
They're screwing themselves by doing it to us and it's not affected us.
go into $30 trillion GDP.
We're a monster economy.
And now we're hearing, and let me just tell you,
you know what professional wrestling,
there's, you know what the word selling means?
It means when somebody does a maneuver to you,
you've got to act like, oh, my God.
So if somebody punches you in the head,
you got to go down.
If Stone Cold Steve Austin gives you the stunner,
That's it. You're out. You're going to get pinned.
But there's something called the oversell.
Stone Cold Steve Austin gives you the stunner.
And then you jump six feet into the air and you look like a doofus.
The oversell.
The problem with this administration right now is they're overselling deals.
Oh, we're meeting with Japan today.
We're meeting with this.
I got news for you.
Listen to me carefully.
It's not meaningful.
Oh, we're cutting a deal with Japan.
Who cares?
It's just the trade deal.
Whoopi do.
Oh, we're going to buy this.
You're going to buy that.
Thank you.
That's not going to change the big playing field.
The big playing field is free markets.
They've worked great.
They've worked fabulously.
And as I have explained to you, trade deficits that we have with smaller countries is because we're bigger than them.
And yes, there are Asian.
countries that have all these factories making a lot of chotchkes that we buy from them because
labor there is very cheap and we cannot mimic it. So to think that's actually going to change
the playing field, it is not. They're overselling. And I can promise you, they're going to come
out and say, we did a deal with Vietnam, we did a deal with Japan, we did a deal here with
It doesn't matter.
It's an oversell in order to make them look fabulous.
Do you know how many deals in the past we've done?
We've had plenty of trade deals.
Everybody's had trade deals.
Some were good, some were not so good.
What do they do?
We've created this unbelievable economy here with everybody screwing us.
That's what they keep telling us.
everybody's the enemy.
They're all cheating us.
They're all screwing us.
How did we get to 30 trillion?
You know what Trump has right?
You know what the big problem is?
The government.
It's too big.
It's too inefficient.
It's too ineffective.
It's a blob.
And they do in the doge, and that's good.
They need to roll back this whole freaking tariff thing and never say the word again.
But unfortunately, that's not going to happen.
Anyway, we remain in a bearish phase of unknown price and time.
It worsened today, but nice clothes, and we'll keep covering it.
Up next.
We got some tidbits.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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for less than you expect.
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Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a
Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you
talk to him. Hey, so it's time for tidbits. Let me tell you what tidbits are.
My Twitter feed is set up that I follow certain things and I get to see things as they come.
And when I find things that I think are important to me, I want to believe they're important to you.
So let's start.
They have been pounding the table on you on artificial intelligence, haven't they?
And we've been telling you the artificial intelligence stocks are in a big,
market and we have warned you about them about overordering and gluts and just plain old
bare markets and that we thought the numbers that they were coming out with were just
ridiculous how's a company going to spend 500 billion dollars no it's spending 500 billion dollars
Microsoft is putting the brakes on a number of data center developments from
Chicago to Jakarta, including sites in the UK, Australia, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Case closed. It's already happening. They oversold it. And it's not being reported to you
because they don't want you selling their stocks. We have had you out of these since the high.
That was Deep Seek Monday when we said that's a top.
Let's continue.
I don't know if you know this, but tourism from Canada into the U.S. is down like 60, 70 percent where airlines are cutting flights and stuff, which is not good news.
This is an outcome of harsh talk against Canada.
Again, making everybody the enemy.
we shouldn't be doing that.
It's insanity.
And yeah, the guy that was running Canada is a doofus and he's now gone.
But there are a lot.
You want to get pissed off, get pissed off at a murderer like Putin.
Let's continue.
On that note, China is cautioning their citizens against traveling to the U.S.
On that note, Europe is warning their citizens
about going to the U.S. about being caught up in the immigration thing that's going on.
And it should not affect them with the news is out there about this, that, and the other thing going on.
People don't know.
So instead of going to the United States where, by the way, people come here and spend money,
we're going to go to Italy or Norway or somewhere else.
This is what I mean by, I think, a huge mistake from this.
this administration, not everybody's the enemy.
Let's continue.
The millionaire tax hike talks are gaining steam as Trump signals openness.
This sucks.
The tax cut president wants tariffs that are a tax hike,
and now they're talking about a tax hike on those very scummy, sleazy millionaires.
and if I hear one conservative come to me and say,
well, it's not a bad idea.
I'll tell him to go take a fly.
You guys got to get unbiased over this.
Just because one man, you get my point.
You get my point.
What else?
Be careful of headlines.
Here's a headline.
Corporate insiders flash bulleters.
stock sign by buying into the market route. That's a headline from Bloomberg. But they're wrong.
What they're doing is they're using a number of how many people buy versus how many people sell.
But as you know, we used to write about this all the time. It's not how many people buy. It's how
much they are buying. And if a multi-zillionaire is buying a thousand shares of his own stock,
They include that in there, but it's meaningless.
It's like painting the tape.
I go through insider buying and selling every single day,
and I am telling you, there ain't much going on.
I saw a few.
So don't believe that crap.
Next, how about this one?
An op-ed in the USA Today.
Get this.
from a guy named Stanley Littal or something,
he writes,
Social Security is a great investment.
It was intended to be a much-needed retirement program
keeping aged Americans out of poverty.
Social Security as an investment sucks.
And it's these lefty dummies
that think you don't know how to take care of your money
that have prayed upon you and believing
Social Security has been a great, it sucks.
If you would have never had Social Security,
number one, the bazillions of dollars to set up the administration
and how many people work for it, it never had been spent.
But do you know that if you, when they started Social Security,
instead of that, you have your own account,
they still take it out of your paycheck and it goes into an account,
but it's in your name.
And it's automatically just put into 10-year bonds,
not even stocks.
You'd have a crap load more money and in your name.
Instead of getting a little $3,000 checks,
you'd be getting six and seven and eight and nine.
And God forbid they put it in the stock market.
Oh, my goodness.
Well, 100%, you'd probably be able to take 30, 40,000.
a month. But let's say
10%. You catch my drift?
What a lie,
this guy wrote.
Absolute lie. You know how much return
on your money you're getting
from all that money taken out?
Bookguess! And they
have control of it and they tell
you what you get.
Imagine that. Government
tells you what you get?
No.
We should be telling government what
they get.
Don't I make sense, by the way?
Don't I?
And of course, as we move on, tidbits,
China directs airlines to refuse
delivery of Boeing jets.
That's another thing that escalated
from here. But don't worry, we're in control,
right? Foreign
tourist arrivals to the U.S.
fell 9.7% in March,
of course, every region.
One of the biggest drops in years.
And it's not even a tourism
story. The combined impact
fewer travelers and growing boycotts of U.S. goods can shave $90 billion off of GDP,
according to a report. We'll see. But I'm more interested in 9.7% drop in tourist arrivals.
And again, because we're making all these countries the enemy. And I can tell you these countries,
you know what they do? They protect their own. And you know what they do? They play
video of the president
ripping these countries.
And you know,
people feel about, what do you feel about
your country? You love the United States.
You catch in my drift? It's got to stop.
President should call me. I'd fix this up in a
nanosecond. In a nanosecond.
In a nanosecond.
Just got to roll it back.
Just Superman.
There's a good movie, by the way.
And that's some of your tidbits of today.
And don't be emailing me and don't be blasting me.
Oh, you don't like this.
I'm 80% in on what the president's done.
But the 20% is a big matzabal.
And the market is down a lot.
Not all of it because of him, but a lot.
And even today, we're going to do 245%.
No, it was 145%.
Oh, and it's only on these products, but when it's got to stop.
And unfortunately, there's nobody there to tell him.
And even if they were, he's not listening.
And that is your tidbits for today.
Crappy day in the market, but nice clothes.
Which may be augers well for tomorrow.
I don't know.
And by the way, at the end of the day, they really moved.
Wow.
They really moved.
Broadcom, 167 to 174 in the last half hour.
Nvidia, the AI stocks, 101 to 104 and a half in a half hour.
If we find out that he's changing his mind,
that means it was leaked again,
and a bunch of crooks in D.C. took advantage of it.
We'll find out.
Up next, this, that, and the other thing,
whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than
you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with
code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits
you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your
earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next
dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture
X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com
for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly
spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now,
I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is
Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the
next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast
might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
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One, two, ready, go.
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In the Gester's Edge.
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Okay, so, buy the book.
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Markets remain in a downtrend.
Big losses to be had in many areas.
over the past months with retail, transports, semiconductors,
small caps and midcaps versus the large caps.
A lot of the not bigger technology just squashed.
Just squashed.
We have no idea when it ends.
We don't know where it ends.
we think we'll have an idea when it ends because the market will start acting better.
We have no urge to be heroes.
We would rather be a little late than too early.
It is quite normal for bare markets to have three legs to the downside,
and usually the third one is vicious.
We do not know if we're going to have a third one.
Right now, we're in the midst of number two.
New Yearly High List,
gold stocks, some defensive issues.
Though when the market crashed for those two days, those defensive issues were not immune and they squashed them.
But they've come back up pretty quickly, but I would not trust them.
Those defensive issues are in waste management.
Why?
Because regardless of the economy, they're coming to pick up your garbage.
And by the way, you should always thank these people.
Do you know why?
none of us would do that job
and as we always tell you
you never look down on
anybody
and I've seen people being looked down
on because they're a waiter and waitress
and a bus boy
you try to use having clean dishes in a restaurant
without your bus boys
and they call busboys by the way
the all important
semiconductors in a brutal
bare market
and I will tell you the average
semiconductor is much worse than the index. Retail stocks acting like we're already in a deep contraction.
I'm amazed at some of the drops. 40, 50% drops. Recently, China was strong, but they have been
caught up in the maelstrom because they've gone after most areas of the globe now. Europe has been
strong, but that's even got caught up, but that's come back quicker.
Other areas that have been defensive.
I'll give you some names.
Coca-Cola.
T-Mobile.
The AutoZones and the O'Reilly Automotives, why?
Because the worry about how many cars are you going to buy going forward with tariffs,
which, by the way, the president has basically changed the stance four times.
Well, maybe we'll do this, maybe we'll do that.
So maybe you're not going to buy a car.
And what are you going to do?
You'll keep your car.
Who benefits?
AutoZone O'Reilly Automotives.
The supermarkets, though Albertsons gagged on its earnings report, but right back up today.
Why supermarkets?
No matter what, you're going to the supermarkets and get their 1% to 2% margins, even though Kamala and Joe Biden said,
inflation's the supermarkets report.
and we're just going to be patient as all hell.
And by the way, we're in the midst of gargantuan earnings season
and we're going to look for the best earnings reactions,
but we're not going to trust them in a bare market in a bearish phase.
We'll see.
And lastly, Joe Biden was out yesterday.
Yay, you know, Joe.
He's now scaring the hell out of people saying that Donald Trump's trying to get rid of Social Security
and you're not going to get your payments.
Joe Biden is a lion's sack.
The greatest liar president we've ever had.
And the reason you don't know this because the media covered is ours for four years.
We want to let you know since I was bar mitzvahed.
They have been telling you that the Republicans are going to take away your Social Security.
And your Medicare and Medicaid.
They're liars.
You remember your grandma is being thrown off the cliff?
Just remember that.
They are experts at making a crisis, creating a crisis, to get wealthy or to win elections.
They have made themselves ridiculously wealthy with a scam called climate change that they started with global cooling.
It got hot.
Global warming.
It got cold.
Oh, let's never be wrong.
Let's call it climate change.
and got a bunch of con artists like Al Gore 20 years ago telling us in 10 years we're doomed,
go look up his net worth.
While he flies private jets and tell us to conserve, we just want you to remember all this.
It's tiresome.
They're boring.
And unfortunately, so many people are caught up and thinking,
you're going to get screwed.
They're bad.
I got news for you. Social Security ain't ever going away.
And it's never going to change because they created the Ponzi scheme.
You're getting your Social Security from workers today.
You're not getting back your money.
You're getting somebody who's working today.
That is the definition of a Ponzi scheme.
Just remember that.
It's never going to change because it can't change.
But let me tell you what will happen, just so you know,
within 10 years, they may change the age.
The numbers, I don't know if they're ever going to do means testing, which means, oh, you're worth 20 million bucks.
You don't need your Social Security.
Or maybe we'll give you half.
That would be terrible why.
It doesn't matter how rich you are.
They took money out of your paycheck and told you you would get it back.
That is an I owe you from the government that should always be given to you.
So I'm not so sure about means testing.
They may change the retirement age.
not sure but there will need changes do you know why the same people that are scaring you know
absolutely know that they didn't do anything to fix the fact that people are living longer
demographics and that's the story hey tomorrow's another day and we're off on Friday
yay have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do quite
simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel
better you will feel better I promise and don't be mad at me with telling you the facts
with no bias only for you that's all we care about good night all bye-bye this has been
investors edge with Gary cult bomb on Biz Talk to listen to past episodes or to get in
contact with Gary go to Gary k.com that's Gary k.com guys it's no use putting it off the best
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