Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Your Health First

Episode Date: October 31, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. It's Halloween. It's Monday. It's October 31st. It's 2022. And I'm still here. Why do I say that?

We'll get into it in a minute. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. And that's right at our website. So just click on it. You can follow us. You can email me.

Just be nice. That's all. Just be nice. And we'll stop there for a second. Flying home from New York last night. And, well, let's go background. The day after WrestleMania in April 2008, I get to work and I have a newspaper out and I can't read it. I start talking.

I can't speak. This was 08. I don't know what the hell is going on. I look at my staff and I'm like, blah, blah, blah, blah. That's pretty much what was coming out. and I call up my wife and I tried to explain she I said I'm going to go to a clinic or something. She goes, you get to a blankety blank hospital. Fast forward, they gave me every MRI, CAT scan, the brain thing of a bob, carotid artery, the whole works.

they really couldn't tell what it was, but their guess was one of two things. A TIA, which is a trans-aschemic attack, which they say is like a stroke that goes away quickly. They actually thought, though, at the time, I had something called a gargantuan migraine with something called aura, A-U-R-A. Don't worry about that noise in the background. That's actually a copier. Anyway, they sent me into the emergency room, treated it as a stroke. And within hours, I'm like quite medicated, but okay. Went to see specialists and they said, well, let's just say you had stroke-like symptoms. and the good news is you have no blockages which causes strokes.

You have no clots which causes strokes. So you did not have a stroke. But whenever you get any symptoms ever again, you run to the emergency room, I don't care if it's nothing. Well, it happened in 2012. but not as bad. Not as bad. But you get nervous.

And during all these times, I got stress tests, every test in the book. And if you know me, you know I'm in great shape. I work out. If I have five alcoholic drinks a year, it is a big year. I don't smoke except I was in New York City, and it's like a big gigantic bong. So whatever secondhand smoke there is. And then 2016, I'm at the Republican debate in Milwaukee with Fox. And I'm watching the debate and all of a sudden it starts.

And some of the things that happen is, just so you know the characteristics I'm trying to teach you guys, you can't speak, you're slurring, you can't read, your eyes get foggy, you're seeing, foggy and then you look in the mirror and I'm not making this up. One eye is lower than the other. That's what happened the first time. That's what happened the third time in Milwaukee. I ran outside while the debates going on. There was security all over the place, of course, and I said I need help. I explained. They got me an ambulance. They called it a TIA, trans-aschemic attack. I was better overnight. They didn't want me to fly the next day.

I waited one more day. Nothing. Six years later, it's 22. I'm older, of course, and I'm on the airplane. I'm feeling fine getting on the airplane. We start lifting off. And, uh-oh. I'm reading and every other word I can't read.

I look at my wife. I start telling her. I went to the people on the airplane. They said, do you want us to land? We can land anywhere in the eastern seaboard. We can go anywhere you want. I go, I will let you know. And I got through it.

All that happened was I was not back and forth reading, but you know what I do to start, to test myself, I do the beginning of the radio show. I sit there at my seat and I go in, welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kulp. I'm your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Tuesday, November 21st, 2022, and we had to talk about you and your money. Serious talk on you and your money with a little comedy injected. And I was able to do that with ease. So I knew what I was okay. As we got off the airplane, dizzy, I said, screw it, went back to the hospital where they originally treated me and it's advantage. They're awesome here. And they knew exactly what to do. I took every test again. I did the MRI.

You know the one if you're claustrophobic. You can't do. But they did it four in the morning, and I'm not really claustrophobic. And you just close your eyes. It lasted 15, 20 minutes. I'm clean as a whistle. My blood pressures of an 18-year-old athletic man. Blood perfect.

Nothing. And I ask, how does this happen? They don't know. And what's interesting is the people said to me exactly, what the first people said in 2008. But if it happens again, even if it's nothing, get your ass in here. And that was that. And I've seen, I don't know if you've seen this, there was a newscaster on TV, like nine months ago, a woman that all of a sudden started slurring right on the newscast. There was a TIA. Boom. Happens out of nowhere. So I'm just letting you know the signs.

And I bring this up because very good friend I know. athlete, great shape, had a stroke and was a bad stroke. Didn't die, but still can't speak very well and still can't do some things. Or less can do things but less. And this was an avid biker. You just don't know. So I'm just letting you know as you get older. You may just want to look up TIA, you look up stroke.

It can't hurt you to read and just look up the symptoms. And if you ever start getting them, get the hell to emergency room. Because it is the first few hours that not only can save you as far as livability going forward, but your life. So I had one of those nights, but you can see I'm back, I'm home. And I just wanted to do the show, why? because I want to prove to myself I'm okay that I can yap well and that was my story

so little health story for you guys and a few guys and gals as you get older just pay attention a little bit more I'm getting this and I'm in shape I'm getting this and I don't drink

I'm getting this I don't do drugs I'm getting this and all my tests were impeccable and I'm getting it so you never know and we're not even we're not doing this the scare you we do it's just facts and that's it that was my evening yay what days today Monday yeah okay got it anyway thanks for being here this is Investors Edge as usual I will be complaining about something I have lots to talk about who Delta airline pilots will strike

I got to write that down because I can't better not fly Delta and lots to cover on the markets and how do I put this? I warned you all. You know when I say to you on the show and I don't say it in jest that they all suck. None of them have your interests. They're all for ratings, their own boasting, their own look at me. They don't care. I'm going to discuss a couple of things that you may not think has anything to do with you and your money and your markets, but these are people that are front and center on this world, either in politics, business, media. And what's funny is you can look somebody straight in the face and it's sunny out and they'll tell you it's raining.

And vice versa. We'll get into that in a little bit. Up next, market wrap, movies of the day, news of the day. Quite the interesting markets. Hope you're listening. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59.

That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital. management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to

change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge. All right. So, as you know, we talk about just keeping you in line with the markets, one step ahead, protecting your capital when all hell is breaking loose. What's leading, what's lagging. And if what's leading is good for the market, or maybe it's not so good for the market, It's something that we have to watch out for. It's earnings season now.

What are we finding there? Is the earnings good or is it just the reactions good? And are the reactions happening just because markets are so far down? When all said and done and when we do our scans, all we want to do, again, is stay a little step ahead. So first and foremost, before even getting into the market wrap today, we've had a rally off the lows. But it's being led, notice the word but by the Dow. The Dow is 30 stocks, 30 big names. That is not the issue.

What's lagging is NASDAQ types, semiconductors, and the big tech, notwithstanding Apple. had that move on Friday off of not that great numbers. Why do I bring that up? I want you to listen carefully. It's in the 90s and probably above 95%. The Dow lags the upside but also lags the downside. In bare markets, the Dow will hold up better. You got that?

In bull markets, the Dow will hold up better. will lag the NASDAQ growth, NASDAQ 100, technology types. Of course, the other side of that, in bare markets, the NASDAQ will lead down. And the reason why that is is because in bull markets, the NASDAQ leads up. What does one have to do with the other? Well, the rule is, In bear markets, past leaders on average will drop 70%. Where are mostly the past leaders? The NASDAQ types. And what have we seen since last year?

Remember, starting in February 21, our first big worry in a timely fashion was the bubbles popping. And then it was a roller, rolling. throughout the middle of the year, a growth stock breaks down. Another one breaks down. Another one and another one. And then more bubbles pop. And then more.

And then more. And then more. So already we were getting weakness. But then November, they got them all. And since November of 21, they have absolutely crushed, crushed those famous names of the yes the year that were leading. You know the ones everybody talked about that you had to own.

Don't sell. I'll mention just a few. Square, PayPal. I don't even include Peloton and things like that in there because that was real COVID-related type things. Snapchat. Match.com.

IAC interactive. Snowflake. I can go on, but I don't. need to what is the worry now go look at the Dow versus the NASDAQ go look at the Dow versus the NASDAQ 100 and go look at the Dow versus the semiconductors which really can't even get going they're off the lows a little bit because hey the Dow had a good rally you know you lift boats but how much so we're just letting you know and this is not a thought process on ooh

this is working and that is working. It is a thought process that is, number one, the Dow is leading big time and everything else is lagging big time. The things that usually lead in a bull market are lagging big time, the use thing that usually lags in a bull market leading big time.

That's a little worry here. Just letting you know. And we'll see how it plays out. Can the NASDAQ start catching up? Sure. Have they? No. And today, just another day where the Dow holds up best, NASDAQ less so. And some things, much less so. Which takes me the next thing because we're getting asked this a lot. And we warned you many, many moons ago, in 1999, you had to own. Intel, Microsoft, AOL, EMC, WorldCom, Nortel, Lucent, Cisco, you had hold them forever. Do you know why? Because nothing could go wrong. These things were over-owned, over-loved, and over-leveraged.

But at the highs, what happened? Number one, they already had a monstrous run. Number two, we know that what bear markets do to past leaders. Number three, we also know a lot of past leaders never come back, but in the case, Microsoft did. I don't know if you know this, but Intel is not back to 2020. 2000, I mean, neither is Cisco, eBay, neither is that. on the other end Amazon became a big winner we're pretty damn sure

and we've been telling you this already but we're going to put a little to it Facebook stupid that they even change their name that's back to 93 bucks down another six today where did we tell you that was a top 300 and what salesforce.com

Adobe AMD D, Netflix, though Netflix off the lows a little bit, but still down what? 56, 57%. We're pretty sure of these names, not all. They ain't never coming back. And are down for the count. And why does that happen?

Number one, they get too big. What does too big mean? We'll start with that up next. And much more. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual. Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just. on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

Okay. So, Bigness, if the main reason, by far, the main reason a... Excuse me, I take that back.

Buy everything. The reason why a stock goes up and keeps going up over whatever period of time, but we're talking longer term right now. The reason is their growth of the business. Not just the growth of the business,

but how much they are growing the business. As you get bigger, it gets tougher to grow on a percentage basis. But when you're smaller, and you go from 100% growth to 80, that's still damn good. But once you get really big, it gets tougher. It gets tougher to move that stock. Why? Growth rate. And then when you get gargantuan, where you just can't grow anymore, how do you grow a business

that's doing, $300 billion a year? 400, 500? You can't. On a percentage basis. Do you know Walmart does $600 billion in revenues? You know, they used to grow the business, 50, 60, 70, 80 percent. They can't do double digits now, and there's some quarters. They do twos and ones. So they eventually, they become slower boats.

And what happens when you are one of those names that are so loved? And why are they so loved? Because human nature. The stock keeps performing and performing and performing and performing. And they come out with earnings and sales and they're good. Oh, they're good. Oh, they're good. And it becomes the norm in the market, the acceptance,

and the expectation, hey, everything's cool. What happens if that name that is over-owned, every mutual fund has a crap load of it, every hedge fund, over-leveraged, leveraged with borrowed money, over-owned, over-leveraged, over-loved, and over-believed. what happens when growth not only slows down but tanks well the overlove gets less overloved and as it keeps going lower less and less overlove which means selling what about the over leverage which i actually should have started with well the over leverage first have to sell off the leverage before anything else overlove over leveraged, over-owned, over-belief, meaning Facebook, meta, whatever the hell their name is, goes from 384, down to 220.

On a big gap to the downside was like 100 points in January. What do you hear? Oh, it's Facebook. Come on. They got a couple billion people on there. They're monetizing. They're coming out with meta. They have a history every now and then a drop, and everything's good.

Over belief. Less overloved, but still loved. And then it goes into a slow death. Over a few months down to 150. 380 to 150. But, hey, all those people still have buy ratings on it. They must know something. We're good.

And then it goes to 120. And you're losing your butt. And then they report earnings. 49% drop, 4% drop in sales. And the stock goes from 120 down to 100. There's no love anymore. One famous person's apologizing for being bullish on it all the way down. That's the cycle.

And I must tell you. And by the way, Facebook is still overowned here. But now it looks bad because the CEO is out on the conference call saying, oh, well, I like what I'm saying. Really? Your stock's down 70% you like what you're seeing. Kiss off, buddy. I'm worried that quite the few of these names may be in that camp. And it's been going on for a while.

They're over-hoped if you still own. You're hoping. Doesn't work that way. That's why we see. study so hard. That's why we scan so long. That's why we have fail safes on everything we do. Fail safes. Never lose big. Make it a part of your repertoire going forward or get out. If you're one of these people that have taken these things down, if you don't learn from that, get out because i can promise you we will have another bull market again hey we have oil stocks are

acting well here managed cares acting well there's some things that don't even know it's been a bare market these are lessons we want you to learn we want you to understand we want you to know the amount of money that has been lost since november since february of 21 is gargantuan it's a very underreported story. And the reason it's underreported is because a lot of these reporters were part of the problem. Talking up crap, spacks, no sales, stuff, coins. While we discussed reality with you, they're getting the pom-poms out. We're screaming reality to you.

And we're just letting you know we're going to continue. as we move forward. And right now, one, I wouldn't call it the biggest of deals, but the Dow is leading bigly, while the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 semiconductors, growthy type stuff lags badly on this up move. We'll be paying attention. Today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in. in or out of the market was proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Normal today to pull back on the Dow 128. S&P 29, worse than the Dow, and the NASDAQ was down the equivalent of about 400 Dow points. Again, NASDAQ 100, even worse. The socks down 50. We would rather see the opposite at all times. today interesting oil prices were down but oil stocks are up nicely

and the president I think as I speak right now is on TV saying he wants a windfall tax on oil companies yet the oil stocks are up today interesting managed care has been

a port in the storm defense stocks a port in the storm A few drugs and biotech, bigger ones, port in the storm. Insurance port in the storm. And then you had these for Dow stocks, Outlier moves to the upside off of earnings. Up next. We'll keep expounding.

This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a 300. annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge.

With Gary Culpa. So most of the year, this is. a lot more earnings to come out but most of what we call the big gargantuan you know thing of mobs but there's still plenty more to come and we'll cover each and every one this you know I kind of almost take that back this week I see AMD advanced micro devices another stock caught in a major crushing cheesecake factory prudential the strong insurance group I got to go through it I just pick them up, pick this up, but there'll be plenty this week. Again, we're just reporting to you.

We would rather see the Dow lag, the others go, but here's the issue. And this is the best way I can put it to you. If the Dow in the next week decides to drop 500 points, I think the NASDAQ goes down 1.5 times worse, on a percent. basis. If nothing change, remember, these things can change, we'll report them to you, but as of this second, we think the NASDAQ has been rallying up the last few days because the Dow types have lifted it up. We'll see. We've been asked big time about Apple. Why? Because it's the most over-owned stock in history. And I thought their guidance wasn't good. I thought their numbers were okay. But guess what the story with Apple is? They're down

to very little growth. And even if they picked up the growth, they're never going to grow like the way they used to. Never. Impossible. It's just too big. Doesn't mean they're bad. It's not an indictment, but we're just letting you know. The laws of bigness take over. why do you think Coca-Cola why do you think Coca-Cola started getting involved

with so many other things so many other companies you know Coca-Cola topped out in July of 98 it never got above those July highs I got a good one for you in

with the COVID drop Coca-Cola was below the highs of 98. And not including dividends, and I don't think that dividends that big. In 24 years, Coca-Cola stock has gone from 44. Closed at 59 today. In 24 years, Coca-Cola.

And why is that? Well, from 1982 to 1998, It went from 90 cents to 44 bucks. Catch my drift? The Laws of Bigness. That's something's got to be watched out for. And we think some of these tech names may be in that law of bigness stuff. Keep that in mind.

We'll keep covering them because we know how popular they are. We know how a lot of you own them. Let me finish up. We've been telling you that with $31 trillion of debt. the leaderships of this country suck on both sides. We think the... Let me just give you a couple of things here. So Nancy Pelosi's husband was attacked by somebody.

Within an hour, the ass clowns on the left were blaming MAGA for the violence. Within an hour, the ass clowns on the right were saying that this guy was Nancy Pelosi's husband's lover. You catch him my drift? It's all politics. You think they care about you, any of them?

It's all, look at me. Pay me. I've got a podcast. Look at me. They don't care. Neither of them. Truth? Give us a crap about truth. It's my side.

I'll lie for them to the grave and the same with the other side. That's how you get the $31 trillion of debt. Simple as that. That's how you get to underachieving in schools. That's how you get a government that has spent $70 or $80 trillion since the year 2000 telling us they need more for infrastructure. I can go on. Call me frustrated. but I'm actually happy with myself. I left. Somebody told me I need to take sides a couple of weeks ago.

I took Gary's side. And if any of these people in politics or their minions decide to be straight up, tell us the truth, do the rights thing, we'll let you know. This was another disgusting display from both sides. and remember, I'm a fiscal conservative, more than any of these people. You know, these Republicans now that are telling us they care about spending in deficit? No, they don't. They care about it when somebody else is running the show. When they run the show, they don't care. Hopefully, down the road, we found some real people, real leaders that do care

and are not playing with their own cards in their own deck. to gain points, gain reelected, gain views, gain likes, and all that crap. It's disgusting. Both sides. The tank.

Both sides. We'll keep talking. Hey, Serenity now. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. I'm going to get some sleep. I had an MRI at 4 in the morning. And when you get home,

do like we do. It's quite simple. It is Monday. Oh, it's Halloween. say hello to all the kids coming around. Give them good candy. And when you get home, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. We shall be back same time tomorrow. We really appreciate your time. Have a good one. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.