It Could Happen Here - 2024 Election Polls

Episode Date: June 27, 2024

Robert and Gare take a look at the polls post Trump's felony conviction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Submit your podcast today at iHeart.com slash podcast awards. That's iHeart.com slash podcast awards. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast. And we're kicking off our second season digging into tech's elite and how they've turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech brought to you by an industry veteran with nothing to lose.

Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts from. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, five-year-old Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez was found off the coast of Florida. And the question was, should the boy go back to his father in Cuba? Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or stay with his relatives in Miami? Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Calls on Media. Welcome back to It Could Happen Here, a podcast where Robert Evans is lying down on a couch because he just feels exhausted from sleeping 11 full hours. Garrison, you are much younger than me and uh don't seem to feel exhausted because you just woke up after staying up all night did you yeah no not as exhausted um i hate you know i hate you do you know do you know what is exhausting robert elections the the 2024 presidential election the 2024 presidential election. The 2024 presidential election. Yeah, I hate it.

I hate it, Garrison. I hate it, but also I have made a commitment. I have made a commitment to making a prediction about the election this year and sticking to it, even though it's going to make everybody angry. And I have a good reason for doing so. It's because I want to try one of the rarest drugs that exists in the world today, that Nate Silver shit. See, everyone's been wondering since like 2020, what's up with that guy? Did he like lose his mind? Was he always

kind of like out there and we just didn't notice because he got lucky a couple of elections in a row. And the answer to that is no, Nate was a pretty reasonable guy. He comes out of like, not politics. He only got into politics in 2006 because they banned online gambling and he got angry about it. And then he accurately predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections. Which wasn't hard, to be fair. Which wasn't hard. No, it was not. I mean, he got all the states right, but it was just a matter, because people have pointed

out he didn't seem to be nearly as accurate in 2016 or 2020. There's a degree of fairness to that. But 2008 and 2012 were our last non-smartphone elections where there wasn't this like big, you know, demon of social media kind of hiding behind everything and making everything a lot weirder. And I think part of, you know, I think what ultimately caused Nate's madness though, is that in 2016, he did pretty well. He like laid out, there's a 29% chance of Trump winning. And when he like explained what that chance was, how Trump might sweep the blue firewall states and whatnot, it's basically what wound up happening. And as like a reward for being more or less correct,

while the election was going on, all of the Democrats hated him because the news sources they liked said that Trump had only a 2% chance of winning. And then when the election was over, it became like mainstream kind of reality to just say, yeah, Nate, Nate fucked that one up. He finally screwed up. And I think that that mix of things is what's driven him insane. So I've decided to predict that there's a 29% chance that the election is basically the same as 2020. And now, unlike Nate, I don't have any kind of math to back that up. It's just a gut feeling. But I'm calling that now because I want people to get really angry at me now. And then ideally, when I'm right, they'll get even angrier at me. And then I can go insane on social media and just gladly become completely unhinged and see what it's like to be Nate Silver, the ultimate high garrison. See, I thought you were going to say you thought there was a 29% chance that Nate Silver would just completely, completely lose it and do some like. Yeah, do a major act of terrorism.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. That's what i thought you were gonna say yeah he drives a double-decker bus into the into the lincoln memorial god that's my that's my hope he storms the 538 headquarters yeah he's gonna take it back once and for all oh okay so today we're going to be talking about election polling uh the debate is is very very soon here in atlanta georgia and as a little bit of a preparatory measure we want to go over some of the actual uh poll numbers for the 2024 presidential election i i like to start with this iowa poe from Seltzer and Co.

Now, Iowa is a weird one, right? Iowa has gone red pretty consistently the past two years, although 2020 was closer than 2016. In 2020, Trump won the state by 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. But the numbers right now are much, much worse for Biden. Not good. No, much worse for Biden. Not good. No, it's pretty bad. Trump is leading Biden in the general election in Iowa by 18 percentage points. And third party candidates, including Kennedy and the libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, are receiving a combined 15% support.

It's pretty bad. It hasn't been this bad in a while. Now, people like to use this specific Iowa poll as kind of a barometer for the Midwest in general. And that's, you know, not completely accurate all the time, but it is something that people do consistently point to as a general barometer for Trump's possible success in the Midwest. Now, we have Minnesota. Which is key because one of the most, probably the most viable path to Biden winning involves holding that quote unquote blue firewall, which doesn't include Iowa,

obviously, but it does include Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which are generally within the margin of error in most polls, but looking very sketchy for Biden compared to how he would like them to be at this point. Wisconsin's not looking great. Minnesota, according to a SurveyUSA poll from just a few days ago, Biden is up six points. Yes, yes. Michigan is, I think, the one I was saying is a little closer. Yeah. So that's kind of the situation with this poll. I'm not going to get into any of the more specific numbers because the numbers in this Iowa poll are going to be actually pretty reminiscent of more of the general election numbers, which we're going to get into, especially when we're going to start factoring in things like the conviction and Trump's popularity among

independents, which could very well be a major deciding factor in this election. So I'm going to quote from Forbes here, quote, Trump leads Biden by one point, 50 to 49 percent in a CBS poll released Sunday that comes after a streak of surveys found Trump's lead has slipped since his felony conviction in Manhattan last month, including a Fox News survey released Wednesday, the 19th, that shows Biden up by two points, a three point swing since the network's May survey. This was among a streak of five polls since mid-June that show Biden beating or tied with Trump, unquote. So Biden has made some considerable progress in the polls in the past month. Biden and Trump are now tied in the Morning Consult's weekly survey, as Biden has now been

leading Trump by a point for two weeks in a row. A month prior, Trump was way, way ahead of Biden. And the two are also tied in the Economist YouGov survey released last Thursday, as well as a PBS Marist poll from Tuesday the 18th. Yeah, and there's a couple of things. I mean, like, it's easy to say that's probably due to the conviction, because that's the biggest thing that's happened since then. But I also think there's a decent chance that some of that is just the result of the fact that Trump is now definitely the nominee, which was a little more up in the air previously. So now people are kind of forced to consider what that really means. But it does seem

in general like there's been motion and like things have been moving in Biden's favor since the conviction. So I don't think it's wrong to say that probably overall, the evidence suggests helps Biden at this point. Yeah. And the Fox News survey is really interesting because they have this, they have it on a graph here and you can see Biden steadily moving upwards on the graph very consistently. And Trump has largely flatlined, if not, is actually kind of moving a little bit down. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also moving quite down. Yeah. Which is not completely surprising, considering the whole brainworms thing.

He's going to be the most interesting thing. I mean, not the most interesting thing, because whether or not Trump wins could mean whether or not we are able to continue doing what we do. could mean whether or not we are able to continue doing what we do but rfk is kind of the most interesting thing for me in terms of like are is it going to is there going to be any kind of evidence that there's actually real hunger for a third party which everyone keeps talking about is this constant topic of discussion in u.s politics but it never happens and and people were getting very rfk is obviously a bad guy to pin your hopes on a viable third party on. But I am interested to see if it – because there's a decent evidence that the primary chunk – because when you factor in RFK, Biden's lead doesn't go down, right? Because RFK is really popular among a lot of the independents that Trump is already strong with.

popular among a lot of the independents that Trump is already strong with. And so the big question is like, is he going to drain votes from Trump or just kind of fizzle out? And I think right now the smart money is kind of on fizzling out, but it's a little hard to say. Do you know what we can say for sure, though, Robert? That Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the primary sponsor of this podcast. God, I hope so. I really hope we start getting some RFK ads on here. Look, folks, if you're not sure whether or not you want to vote for RFK, we get it. Obviously, this is a big choice. But our recommendation is head down to the Gulf of Galveston and shove your head in that Texas coast water.

Get a couple of amoebas rattling around on that brain of yours and then see how you feel about RFK Jr., you know? I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not. Those were some callers from my call-in podcast, Therapy Gecko. It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over the world as a fake gecko therapist and try to dig into their brains and learn a little bit about their lives.

I know that's a weird concept, but I promise it's pretty interesting if you give it a shot. Matter of fact, here's a few more examples of the kinds of calls we get on this show. I live with my boyfriend and I found his piss jar in our apartment. I collect my roommate's toenails and fingernails. I have very overbearing parents. Even at the age of 29, they won't let me move out of their house. So if you want an excuse to get out of your own head and see what's going on in someone else's head, search for Therapy Gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

It's the one with the green guy on it. Hey, I'm Jack Peace Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series, Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature. I'm Jack Peace Thomas, and I'm inviting you to join me and a vibrant community of literary enthusiasts dedicated to protecting and celebrating our stories. Black Lit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while commuting or running errands, for those who find themselves seeking solace, wisdom, and refuge between the chapters. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry,

we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Together, we'll dissect classics and contemporary works while uncovering the stories of the brilliant writers behind them. Blacklit is here to amplify the voices of black writers and to bring their words to life. Listen to Blacklit on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how Tex Elite has turned Silicon Valley

into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, better offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the field, and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse, and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge, and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough, so join me every

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami.

Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are back. Let's talk a little bit about independence because this voting block will

basically be the deciding factor in this whole election. So that PBS Morris poll that found Trump and Biden tied also found that Trump has lost six points with independence compared to their poll taken just before his conviction last May. And Biden has gained eight points with independence and now leads Trump by two points in that category. And similarly, the Fox poll also shows Biden leading by nine points among independents. And that's a massive shift. That's enough of a shift that I wonder how much polling methodology, maybe to explain for it.

Were they just polling these people? Were they polling them badly before or are they polling them badly now? Because that's quite a lot of movement. We'll talk a little bit about polling methodology here at the end, because it might, yeah, it is certainly the polling methodology produces a large degree of the numbers. A lot of these polls have a margin of error of about 3.5%. But this finding is consistent across almost every single poll being done right now. A political Ipsos poll from mid-June found that 32% of independents say they are now less likely

to support Trump after his conviction, with 21% saying it would be an important factor in their vote. Yep. And I did, this is the, when we were we were taught would talk in the group chat before the conviction i would i made a note a couple of times of the fact that there's a sizable number of americans who are not what you'd call high information voters but just feel really gross about voting for a felon and i think these are the kind of people who are independents a lot of the times they're not people who think much about politics they're people who make they're not as partisan typically yeah yeah yeah and they can kind of make a swing gut decision on either of these guys in a moment and if you tell well he's a felon that matters to some people there's like the this frustrates a lot of like high information political analysts the fact that

so many americans just kind of like make almost random decisions like flip of a coin calls about what to do. But which is also what makes polling very hard is right. But all polls also indicate that this will probably be a much closer election than 2020s. And in an election this close, small shifts among independents could very well determine the outcome. Now, I'm going to quote from that political Ipsos report on their own poll, quote, quote, a plurality of respondents in our poll, 38% reported that Trump's conviction would have no impact on their likelihood to support Trump for president. 33% of respondents said that the

conviction made them less likely to support Trump, while only 17% said it made them more likely. These results were worse for Trump among respondents who said they were political independents. 32% said that the conviction made them less likely to support, and only 12% said that it made them more likely to support Trump, unquote. And that same poll also found that 9% of Republicans say they're now less likely to support Trump. Yeah, which is massive and that that actually makes me want to bring up one of the guys the analysts i've been reading um because i this is actually the to the extent that there's any real basis behind my 29 chance things work out basically like 2021

uh it's this this this fucking dude helmet norpoth norp is, he's one of these guys who's built a model. Like, you get these every now and then, like, because they're great content for TV news dudes. Like, oh, this guy's got a model predicting the election. His model predicted the last 40 elections properly, even though they, like, ran them through after he knew how the elections were going to go. And I don't know how fair that is. Helmut actually did accurately predict a couple of like the last he's had his model going the primary model for like the last seven elections, and it predicted five of them correctly. Now, one it got right was 2016. Although it predicted how Trump was going to win wrong, it got that he was going to win, right? I don't know how much credence you

want to give that and he fucked up in 2020 Although, you know, the fact that there was a pandemic, then I'll give him a little bit of grace. The other one he fucked up was 2000, but he called it for gore. So yeah, well, I'll read from his website describing like how this works, because it's relevant to what you're talking about in terms of independent voters. And it's also relevant to what I think is another major factor and who's going to ultimately win, which is likely voters versus like, if I feel like it, I'll vote. Because Biden's lead jumps substantially when you consider likely voters. Whereas Trump does very well with like maybe voters. And I kind of don't feel like this is going to be a high turnout election,

right? That's what I am seeing. We have some data on this that I'll talk about later. Yeah. Yeah. And Helmut's model works that way. So, quote, the primary model gives President Joe Biden a 75% chance to defeat Donald Trump in November. This forecast takes account of the performance of the two candidates in the early primaries. Biden won the Democratic contest in those states by far larger margins than Trump did

in Republican ones. What also benefits Biden in the general election is an electoral cycle that favors the sitting president. In a nutshell, a White House incumbent facing no significant challenge in primaries almost always wins re-election. As for the Electoral College, the most likely outcome of the 2024 election predicted by the model is that Biden will get 315 and Trump 223. And basically, so part of why I think this guy's probably a hack, but it's kind of interesting, is he's looking at how they performed relative to each other in their primaries. And there's a degree to which you can say, like, well, primaries are absolutely not general elections. But what it does show is relative how much Trump's support has faded from Republicans.

relative how much Trump's support has faded from Republicans. And Trump actually did considerably less well in the primaries than he did in 2020, right? Totally. There was a degree of actual hunger to vote for Kerry Lake, who I think is the Arizona candidate who was running against him. And he showed weakness in a number of primary states that was not there in 2020, which suggests, along with the polling you showed, you know, that like 9% of Republicans are less likely to vote for him after the conviction, an amount of weakness in his base that could be pretty meaningful when we get to the election. And I don't think it's been taken into account enough by, for example, folks on the left looking at how much everybody hates Joe Biden, which is also a very real factor. But I think that people are kind of denying the degree to which a lot of folks who should be his base don't like Trump anymore.

Yeah. And this is one of the weird things post the conviction. There were some pundits who were trying to make an argument that somehow the conviction would actually make Trump a more popular choice, which maybe works if you're like a contrarian, but it doesn't really make much sense. And if you look at like the approval ratings for the conviction and the verdict, they fall pretty, pretty well on party lines. It's really going to come down to independence. And like everyone who's going to vote for Trump, who like really, really, really want to vote for Trump are still going to vote for Trump, right? Like that's how it goes. Absolutely not. And they will buy the I'm voting for a felon hats that Facebook keeps trying to sell me. Absolutely, right? Like those are not

the people that are in question, but there is a large number of other people who do not own a mega hat who are actually, you know, questionable in who they're going to vote for. On this note, I'd like to like to quote again from Forbes, quote, polls consistently show the conviction is a low priority for most voters in deciding who to actually cast their ballot for. The Politico Ipsos poll found that 53% said it's not important, said it's not important to their voting decision, while 61% in a Reuters poll released last week said it won't impact their vote, unquote. Now, one of the clearer shifts that we have seen post-verdict

is a sizable increase in Biden voters who list stopping Trump as one of their main reasons to do so. We have numbers from March to now, is that the main reason for supporting Biden in March, we had 47% saying it's to oppose Trump. Now it's 54% saying it's to oppose Trump, which I think that number will only increase the closer we get to the election because people don't want Trump to be president again, even though they don't like Biden. The other thing with these numbers is that the percent of people who say, I like Biden as reason for supporting him has decreased since March. Yes, yes. It has decreased by 4%.

Of course, because he's not likable and he shouldn't be president still. But Trump is even like, and people understand, that is the number one thing when I go out of the bubble of my friends and whatnot and talk to family members or just like have conversations with like Uber drivers or whatnot about politics. I have not heard a single person state a reason for vote. They want to vote for Biden.

That is more important than I don't want Trump to be president. That is everyone that I encounter basically. Like I'm, I'm obviously you have other people, but it is weird to the extent to which that Like, obviously, you have other people. But it is weird to the extent to which that's what this election is going to come down on. And I kind of think it's evidence that, like, of a failure of strategy in Trump's part, because I think he probably could do better if he were to focus on allaying those fears that he wants to become a dictator as opposed to harping on... One of the things that's interesting to me, he's campaigning very heavily in Wisconsin right now. He's already made two visits just to Southeast Wisconsin in the last two months because Wisconsin is up for grabs, right? Every poll I've seen basically is within margin of error.

It's either guy's game and it's a critical state. And Trump is hammering Biden on crime in Wisconsin, right? Look at how your dibs have done. Look at how much more violent the city's become. And about 1% of registered voters in Wisconsin consider crime a major concern in a presidential election. And part of that's because violent crime has dropped massively in Wisconsin and nationwide over the last year and i i do wonder the extent to which because americans views on crime are not based on how bad crime actually is but i also wonder if people are start are like the the degree to which that's a voting concern for people is fading because it has dropped so much yeah and i i'll be curious to see if kind of

trump's strategy of hammering the Democrats because they're bad on crime is going to prove to be a serious misstep. Well, even Fox News has had to do recent segments talking about how there actually has been a drop in crime, even though Americans feel like it hasn't, which is a quite funny little tidbit. We're all looking for the guy who did this moment. Now, I do want to get through a few more conviction numbers. I'm going to quote from Politico's report on their own poll regarding the importance of the conviction in people's vote. Quote, 22% of respondents said the conviction is important to how they will vote and that it will make them less likely to support Trump. Only 6% of respondents took the other side of the question,

saying they are more likely to support. A nearly identical net negative effect showed up among independents, with 21% saying they are less likely to support and 5% saying they are more likely, unquote. Now, of those who say the conviction is important to how they will vote, 7% of Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump. So that's an interesting number. And only 13% say they are more likely. And like, come on, those people were always going to vote for Trump anyway. 40% of Democrats, of course, say that they are less likely. Now, 28% of Republicans say that the conviction makes them more likely to support Trump, but it won't affect their vote. And among

those who said the conviction isn't important to how they will vote, 40% said that it has basically no impact on their support of Trump. Most of those people are independents. Now, Politico also asked respondents if they thought the prosecution was brought to help Joe Biden. And most, around 51%, disagree with the claim. But 43% agreed and said that the case had probably been brought to help Biden. And these results are roughly similar among independents. So still, most people don't think so. And there's people who have, you know, suspicions. Not super surprising. Now, Politico notes that these figures might be movable, though. These are not necessarily locked down opinions as, quote, roughly a third of all responders and independents said that they still do not

understand the details of the case well, unquote. So glorious. This is those are not really set in stone. And Politico also notes that there is a number of upcoming events and variables that could change the public's opinion before November, you know, including all of the ongoing efforts by political operatives to influence the public perception of both the conviction and just, you know, the election in general. The debates, obviously, too. The debates, as well as Trump's sentencing in Manhattan on July 11th, which could possibly, you know, entail a period of incarceration. Probably not. But if it did, that would certainly impact these numbers. And also Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's testimony before Congress on July 12th.

This could impact the numbers regarding how many people think this case is legit versus how much people think this is just purely like a political move. But still, about half of adults do approve of Trump's conviction. The AP did a poll with the NORC a week after Trump's conviction, but before Hunter Biden was convicted on that federal gun case. And USL seems more likely to support Trump's conviction than they are to disapprove, with at least 48% saying they approve, and just 29% somewhat or strongly disapproving, and 21% not approving or disapproving. To quote from the AP, Republicans are less united on the verdict than Democrats. Roughly six in 10 Republicans disapprove, while 15% approve.

The other two in 10 neither approve nor disapprove. Overall opinions on Trump have barely budged. About six in 10 US adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, which is in line from our findings in a poll conducted last February. Four in 10 have a favorable opinion of Trump, which is in line with from our findings in a poll conducted last February. Four in 10 have a favorable view of Trump, when also largely unchanged since February. The numbers are equally poor for Biden. Four in 10 US adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while six in 10 have a negative one, unquote. Yeah, this is very much unique in races that I can recall, a race to the bottom. Like who can alienate, who will alienate less of the base, right? Yeah.

No, polls consistently are showing that there will be historically, that there is historically low voter enthusiasm. Both candidates have very low favorability ratings. And an NBC poll found that 64% of voters say that they are very interested in this year's election, which is a 20-year low. So, you know, not great numbers. And a new CBS poll found that among young Americans who did vote in 2020, only three quarters say that they'll definitely do so again. Now, this poll also does show that Trump's support among young voters has been almost

unchanged since 2020. Yeah, he's got about done about 2% better, which is fairly minimal considering how much Biden's lead is among that group. But overall, young voters do believe in generally progressive values pretty consistently, including support for a ceasefire. And that's, I mean, part of the reason why we may not see, which, you know, could be catastrophic for Biden, because 2020, a lot of his win came in the fact that he did deliver so much of that, like so many young voters came out, turnout was so high, and they overwhelmingly supported Biden. There is also, I mean, kind of a reason why that might not wind up mattering, which is where Biden, I mentioned earlier, Biden does really well among likely voters, much better than he does among the general electorate. And this is part of a shift among white voters with degrees that has been, we get a lot of talk, and this has been significant, especially like Latino voters shifting towards the GOP has been a really

important story too. But this one does not get talked about as much. In the four years since Biden took office, white men with degrees have shifted 24 points towards Biden, and he has gained 19 points among white women with degrees, which is like a huge amount of his support. And also, that's one of the groups that's likeliest to vote. Like the strength that Biden has gained among kind of middle of the road, leaning conservative suburban voters is potentially going to be a decider in this election. Yeah. And according to the New York Times and Sienna, the polls do seem slightly skewed in Trump's favor actually this year, mostly by disenfranchised voters who may not participate in the upcoming election. An analysis they did found that Biden had led the last three of their polls among 2020 voters,

but trailed among registered voters overall, which is basically exactly what you're saying. You know, Garrison, speaking of likely voters, are, I don't know, that doesn't really lead in. Here's the fucking ads. Look, you don't get, you don't get a good one every time we do this, folks. There's too many. You are likely to listen to these ads. They're fine.

I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not. Those were some callers from my call in podcast Therapy Gecko. It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over the world as a fake gecko therapist and try to dig into their brains and learn a little bit about their lives. I know that's a weird concept, but I promise it's pretty interesting if you give it a shot. Matter of fact, here's a few more examples of the kinds of calls we get on this show.

I live with my boyfriend and I found his piss jar in our apartment. I collect my roommate's toenails and fingernails. I have very overbearing parents. Even at the age of 29, they won't let me move out of their house. So if you want an excuse to get out of your own head and see what's going on in someone else's head, search for Therapy Gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It's the one with the green guy on it. Hey, I'm Jack B. Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series, Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature.

I'm Jack Peace Thomas, and I'm inviting you to join me and a vibrant community of literary enthusiasts dedicated to protecting and celebrating our stories. Black Lit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while commuting or running errands, for those who find themselves seeking solace, wisdom, and refuge between the chapters. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Together, we'll dissect classics and contemporary works

while uncovering the stories of the brilliant writers behind them. Blacklit is here to amplify the voices of Black writers and to bring their words to life. Listen to Blacklit on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hola, mi gente. It's Honey German and I'm bringing you Gracias, Come Again, the podcast where we dive deep into the world of Latin culture, musica, peliculas, and entertainment with some of the biggest names in the game. If you love hearing real conversations with your favorite Latin celebrities, artists, and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators,

sharing their stories, struggles, and successes. You know it's going to be filled with chisme laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week, we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, el té caliente, and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how Tex Elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel winning economists to leading journalists in the field. And I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if

we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh.

And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with.

His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So we are back.

Is polling actually useful? Is this actually useful anymore? The answer is kind of. But, you know, people have gotten really, really anti-polling in recent years. You know, the 2016 election certainly contributed to that. Although if you look at the actual 2016 polls, it's kind of interesting. In 2016, Clinton generally pulled much higher than Trump for the duration of the race. Though in late July, the two were neck and neck with the gap closing once again in late September. And the week of the election, Trump was on average trailing by less than 3.5% behind, which is often in the margin of error for these polls. And pollsters usually consider something under 3% being a toss

up. Now, this is 3.5%. So still, it was trending towards Clinton, and there is reasons why, in terms of their polling methodology, that was flawed. But the polls were actually a bit closer than I think what public perception seems to remember of the 2016 polls. polls. Yes, and this is part of why the public memory of 2016, and to an extent 2020, and to an extent every election is so bad, is, you can't emphasize this enough, people are dogshit at understanding what polls say, right? They are really bad at understanding uncertainty. One of the things that, I hate to keep going back to the Nate Silverwell, but I think he's a fascinating case study. And one of the things he pointed out

after 2016, the minute you have a forecast where there's less certainty, people don't like that. The minute you have a forecast that doesn't have a Democrat winning, they don't like that very much. And it's to point out like his,

his, he kind of started to become a heel as soon as he started showing that like trump had a real shot at winning and as his as his forecast continued to show kind of weakness among democrats it got people angrier and angrier and that's most of what makes people determine whether or not something is a credible source on the election and that's kind of why a lot of this is like a doomed effort is because people consider, you know, an expert credible if they are saying something they want to hear. Because most of what people want in terms of election polling is to feel reassured that things are going to be okay, right? And that's, you're kind of, it's always like a confirmation bias game.

And it's also one of those things where like, the instant you do well, if you are legitimately a rigorous expert and you predict things correctly, you're going to suddenly be this focus of so much media attention and have so much money and job offers thrown your way that it will inherently drive you mad. Which is part of why, again, I am predicting a 29% chance that things are basically the way they were in 2020. So I can get all that sweet, sweet CNN money, you know, if I wind up being right. I am curious, Garrison, kind of in that line, because as our official poll expert, you kind of came into this, I don't think, with a strong set of biases about what would happen. When you actually started drilling down into the numbers, did that change at all your impression of what was going on this election?

I think I thought that the numbers for Biden would be slightly worse. I think that's kind of the general feeling. And that has been, you know, what the numbers have kind of looked like in my cursory glances the past few months. But looking more into kind of polling science, what these pollsters are saying, the gap is usually within this 3% that it feels like it's going to be a very close election. It'll be much closer than it was in 2020. Polls thought that 2020 would be a much, much more obvious win for Biden. It was a closer election than what people thought.

But this, I think, will be even closer. So it's going to be a tricky one. We're going to be kind of on the edge of our seat come election night. Which is what no one wants to hear, right? No. Especially since you have a lot of people who want to hear Biden is doomed because they have, for generally good reasons, come to despise Biden over the last four years. And they just want to know that the things they're angry about matter. And all I can say to those people is, I don't know that anything matters. And I do think there's a really good chance.

I think this is basically a coin flip. Yeah. And I think polling is going to look very different this year because Trump is not the incumbent. I think there's a lot of other factors that are contributing to the polls. And pollsters have adjusted a lot since 2016 to make sure that more Trump support is accounted for, both in 2020 and in 2016. The error did not come from overestimating the support of Clinton and Biden. It came from underestimating Trump's support. And this,

this has been fixed, fixed for via a number, a number of methods. You know, there's, there's certain theories people have had, like the quote unquote shy Trump voter theory, which is kind of largely disputed saying that,

you know, people certainly by this fucking point. Yes. No, but saying that people who uh people certainly by this fucking point yes no but saying that people who like support trump are too scared to tell pollsters that they support trump quite quite silly it's essentially it's essentially blaming blaming like poll errors on people just lying to pollsters because they're too nervous so i know there's a lot of other stuff uh we have we have we have adjusted for white non-college educated voters, because people who have a college degree

are more likely to respond to polls. So all this does get adjusted for, especially since 2016, because that was the main cause of the polls kind of being fucked up that year. So what exactly happened in 2020 then, if these things like the non-college vote and the shy Trump voter theory were sort of adjusted for.

Well, a few things happened. The pandemic, one, you know, made certain polling figures a little bit unique. The election also featured the highest number of voter turnout in decades, something that we're probably not expected to see in 2024. In 2020, the national polls were too favorable to Biden by 3.9 points, state polls by 4.3. I'm going to read a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research analyzing 2020 election poll errors. Quote, if the voters most supportive of Trump were least likely to participate in polls, then the polling error may be explained as follows. Self-identified Republicans who choose to respond to polls are more likely to participate in polls, then the polling error may be explained as follows. Self-identified Republicans who choose to respond to polls are more likely to support Democrats, and those who

choose not to respond to polls are more likely to support Republicans. Even if the correct percentage of self-identified Republicans were polled, differences in the Republicans who did and did not respond could produce the observed polling error. Unquote. If this was indeed the issue, it was probably made worse by Trump in 2020 by being very disparaging to polls, making his base probably less likely to honestly engage with polling metrics. And both in 2016 and 2020, there was large, large postmortems among the polling community trying to figure out how to improve. And 2022's polls were more accurate than any election since 1998, with almost no bias towards either party. So that is a good sign in terms of the accuracy of polls.

In terms of this not being nonsense, yeah. Correct. So a pollster named Nathaniel Rakich said, quote, polls true utility isn't telling us who will win, but rather in roughly how close a race is and therefore how confident we should be in the outcome. Historically, candidates leading polls by at least 20 points have won at 99% of the time, but candidates leading polls by less than three points have won just 55% of the time, unquote. And that kind of lines up with our current situation, right? Biden was, even though the polls were slightly skewed towards Biden in 2020, he was so far ahead

that most of the polls, in terms of saying who would win, were still correct because Biden was just so far ahead. This time, that will not be the case. That's not what the polls are going to say. The polls are going to show this being a much closer race. And I think that is what it's going to be come November. So yeah, that's kind of the lowdown of the current polling situation. I'll be curious to see what the numbers are post-debate and especially after the sentencing in July. Yeah, we'll see. And I should note that Nate Silver just released his official forecast today. And it's almost the opposite of that weird German man who gave Biden a 75% chance of winning. Nate gives Trump a 65% chance of winning. So we are going to see which of the election pundits who make their entire living off of gambling on elections winds up getting to be feted on all of the talk shows in like January of 2025. That'll be exciting.

That's the real toss up, honestly. That's the real toss up. It's Helmut versus Nate, baby. Who's gonna win? I kind of think they both might be con men. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can find sources for It Could Happen Here updated monthly at coolzonemedia.com slash sources. Thanks for listening. Curious about queer sexuality, cruising, and expanding your horizons? Hit play on the sex-positive and deeply entertaining podcast, Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Join hosts Gabe Gonzalez and Chris Patterson Rosso as they explore queer sex, cruising,

relationships, and culture in the new iHeart podcast, Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Sniffy's Cruising Confessions will broaden minds and help you pursue your true goals. You can listen to Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Sniffy's Cruising Confessions will broaden minds and help you pursue your true goals. You can listen to Sniffy's Cruising Confessions, sponsored by Gilead, now on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

New episodes every Thursday. Welcome to Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get real and dive straight into todo lo actual y viral. We're talking musica, los premios, el chisme, and all things trending in my cultura. I'm bringing you all the latest happening in our entertainment world and some fun and impactful interviews with your favorite Latin artists,

comedians, actors, and influencers. Each week, we get deep and raw life stories, combos on the issues that matter to us, and it's all packed with gems, fun, straight up comedia, and that's a song that only Nuestra Gente can sprinkle. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second

season digging into Tex Elite and how they've turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech brought to you by an industry veteran with nothing to lose. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

wherever else you get your podcasts from. The 2025 iHeart Podcast Awards are coming. This is the chance to nominate your podcast get your for it. Submit your podcast today at iHeart.com slash podcast awards. That's iHeart.com slash podcast awards. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, five-year-old Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez was found off the coast of Florida. And the question was, should the boy go back to his father in Cuba?

Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or stay with his relatives in Miami? Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom.

Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.