It Could Happen Here - An Update On The Revolution in Myanmar

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

James talks to Billy Ford of the USIP about the developments in the conflict in Myanmar, the recent and disastrous flooding, the situation in Rakhine State, and how the Junta is holding onto power despite massive losses.Sources: https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/arakan-army-commander-in-chief-twan-mrat-naing-on-the-future-of-rakhine-state/ https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/aa-chief-arakan-armys-vision-for-myanmar-is-federal-union-of-ethnic-and-bamar-peoples.htmlSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Call Zone Media. Hi, everyone, and welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm James, and today I am joined by Billy Ford from the United States Institute of Peace. Third time podcast guest, Billy? I think it's just my second, but thanks for... Your second, okay. Oh, well, we'll give you a bonus one. for the rain bite yeah yeah and uh we're here to discuss the revolution in myanmar and uh bring you up to date on conflict stuff and natural

disaster stuff and uh answer some questions people have asked me by emailing me so uh yeah thanks for joining us billy we're at another crossroads in the conflicts we talked about before we started recording can you perhaps explain to folks like what has happened since 1027 part two sure yeah i mean i think last time we talked um we were just kind of in the throes of the initial 1027 phase i mean i think zooming out for a second, the, you know, February 2021 coup, September 7th, 2021, defensive war is announced and armed resistance really kicks off. And then 2023, October, things really escalate. After a few years of steady gains by the resistance, then there was a major level change in the trajectory of the war favoring the resistance forces. Yeah, I think, as you mentioned, there was a second phase of 1027 in July and early

August that took things kind of to another level. Although it is kind of just a continuation of a sustained push by the resistance, I think some have perceived these moments of October 2023 and July, August 2024 as real watershed moments, but I think we can see how these are illustrative of broader trends, trends in which the Myanmar military is losing its capability to defend strategic positions, its inability to counterattack on the resistance side, much greater coordination among resistance armed stakeholders, growing

fighting capability, better weapons access, all these sorts of factors that have swung the balance of military power further in the favor of resistance forces. But essentially what happened in july and august was building off of the october advances the resistance in northern shan state not far from the chinese border pushed further into central myanmar in collaboration this was essentially ethnic based armed organizations collaborating with bamar people's defense forces under the command structure of the National Unity Government, and they started making advances into central Burma. So whereas the initial phase of the war

and the NUG strategy was to focus on building relationships between the People's Defense Forces under their command with ethnic-based armed organizations, and focusing strategically on the peripheries to build those relationships, to build ethnic buy-in to the broader revolution, to get access to weapons, and to make steady advances. Now we're at a phase where the resistance is pushing into central Myanmar. Now the focus is on the city of Mandalay and central Burma, which is the biggest commercial center of the country. So, yeah, I mean, this has sparked another phase of, I think, pressure and anxiety within Naypyidaw and the capital among the state administrative council junta leadership and more energy on the resistance side.

And it's occurred alongside advances on multiple other fronts. I mean, in the very north of the country, in Kachin State, starting in March, the Kachin forces pushed the Myanmar military out of, I think it was 200 posts within four months. And similarly in Rakhine State, which I think maybe we'll touch on more, the Arakan army has made steady advances. So it's not just in these sub-regions, it's happening virtually all over the country at this point.

Yeah, it does seem. And clearly the SAC, the junta, is kind of on the back foot. It started to forcibly conscript people, which in turn gave people a choice between the resistance or the military. And it seems like more of them are choosing the resistance. Some of the conscriptions, people can buy out of them them which obviously causes not great for the morale of the population and that's combined with shortages and inflation pretty shit situation for folks living under the hunda oh yeah absolutely i mean i think the number of military i mean there's a big question here about like the resilience of this myanmar military i mean frankly, militaries in other countries have

collapsed under much less pressure. So there's a question here about what is holding this all together, particularly given that its primary resilience factors are heavily degraded. I mean, things like its ideological value. I mean, it's historically been about, well, we hold the country together. We manage the diversity of this complex country we defend the bumar and the buddhist populations these factors are no longer credible yeah i think it's more than a hundred thousand homes in central burma have been have been burned to the ground so those are bumar buddhists and you know someone in the sangha have risen up the buddhist sangha have risen up in protest, including a recent killing of a senior monk. So I think that ideological foundation is totally degraded.

The other factors, which are economic, the economic benefits of being in this institution are also withering as like the entire economy is collapsing, as you referenced. And then the third component is like the social status that one achieves through being a member of this institution. It used to be a place where you could get economic benefits and social benefits. And now it's really neither. I mean, you're reviled or a target for resistance assassination if you're affiliated with this institution. So I think the question remains as to like, what are the key factors keeping it in place, given all of these pressures that it's facing?

And, you know, happy to go into that but i think there's there it's an interesting case study and institutional resilience and um the challenges faced by a resistance movement that's has major resource constraints and you're fighting up against a military institution that has learned how to orchestrate and sustain authoritarian governance structures for decades. Yeah, I think we can maybe circle back to that. One thing I did want to talk about before we move on to talking about what's happening in Rakhine State is I wanted to talk about the recent flooding that people will have probably seen if they have Burmese friends on social media or uh keep a keep an eye on you know publications in the region can you explain a little bit about like the scale of the

flooding and the absolutely bungled if any response from napidor sure yeah i think the latest figures that i've seen were 160 000 displaced 630 affected by the floods 230 dead and 70 missing, I think was what I saw this morning. But yeah, I mean, I think that gives you a sense that this is another humanitarian catastrophe on top of a, I think what is now rated the second most intense violent conflict in the world by Ackland. So this is just one crisis on top of another. And yeah, as you kind of alluded to, the Myanmar military is incapable and unwilling to kind of address the needs here of the population. I mean, the one factor is that they don't have territorial control to move resources if they had the political will to provide assistance. But of course, they're doing the exact opposite.

In some of the most flood affected parts of the country they are continuing to conduct airstrikes on civilian populations yeah i mean it's it's just kind of a level of brutality that's kind of hard to fathom but yeah i mean there's all these other kind of ancillary effects of this i think there's there's signs of a cholera outbreak in yangon um the economic conditions as you mentioned a little bit earlier are horrendous i mean like the economy's lost 30 percent of its value and it's not a rich country to begin with inflation is i think 32 percent year on year with the myanmar chat having lost 200 percent of its value. I mean, yeah, it's 200% less value than it was.

So this is like, you know, it's just one catastrophe on top of another. And it's really testing the Myanmar public's capacity to kind of support one another, which is that's really been the incredible story here. And it's not the first time that the Myanmar military as a governing stakeholder has failed to meet the needs in that moment of crisis of course cyclone nargis one of the worst natural disasters in the region's history was another instance in which the myanmar military refused international assistance and kind of instrumentalized uh humanitarian catastrophe for political

aims yeah yeah and i think people it's worth reading up on that if you're interested in like the sort of longer term history of the conflict and of sort of the military in myanmar maybe now's a good time to take a break and we'll come back and discuss a little bit about uh rakhine state hey guys i'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens.

So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know follow and admire join me every week for post run high it's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all it's light-hearted pretty crazy and very fun listen to post run high on the i heart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose.

This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel winning economists to leading journalists in the field. And I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people.

I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. Hola mi gente, it's Honey German and I'm bringing you Gracias, Come Again, the podcast where we dive deep into the world of Latin culture musica, peliculas and entertainment

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere.

Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with.

His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace,

the Elian Gonzalez story as part of the My Cultura podcast network available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Gianna Parenti. And I'm Jimei Jackson-Gadsden. We're the hosts of Let's Talk Offline,

the early career podcast from LinkedIn News and iHeart Podcasts. One of the most exciting things about having your first real job is that first real paycheck. You're probably thinking, yay, I can finally buy a new phone. Mm-hmm. But you also have a lot of questions, like, how should I be investing this money? I mean, how much do I save?

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on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back okay so i think if people follow the conflict they will have probably seen like a series of conflicting and confusing articles and messages about what's going on in rakhine state and some of that is because there's not a great deal of reporting in the English language great deal of sources in the English language and even if there is like none of us can really make it to Rakhine state right now going through Bangladesh would be quite quite a challenging thing to do at this time and so I guess we should start breaking down if people aren't aware the people who live and have lived for a long time in Rakhine State and the conflicts have existed between them and the Burmese state. Sure. Yeah, I mean, Rakhine State

borders Bangladesh on the western side of Myanmar. It's along a long coastal border as well. And the site of some of the largest extractive oil and gas projects, including the terminal for a major gas pipeline that feeds 14% of yunnan province's gdp so it has huge strategic value it's also um china's aiming to kind of access the indian ocean and circumvent the strait of malacca by by going directly to this um kind of region of the country so it's um yeah highly geostrategically important but it's also i think it's the second poorest state in the entire country and arguably the most conflict affected um at least since 2012 ish so the population of rakhine state is highly diverse kind of illustrative of the broader country's

demographics it includes a bham population, which is the dominant ethnic group at the national level. The ethnic majority is Rakhine. There's, I mean, historically a very large Muslim population, Rohingya Muslims primarily, but also other Muslim minority groups including Kaman Muslims, and then a number of other smaller ethnic minority groups, Marammaji, Kami, and others, as well as a small Hindu population. So you can kind of get the sense that this is a highly diverse space. I mean, many of the listeners will have heard,

2016, 2017, there was the site of a massive clearance operation and the genocide of Rohingya Muslims, about 750,000 of whom were pushed into Bangladesh, and almost all of them are still there, inhabiting the largest refugee camp in the world. Yeah, I mean, overall conditions for the Rohingya, it's hard to imagine a more difficult set of conditions. The Bangladesh government is quite impatient, having hosted many hundreds of thousands of rohingya some for seven years but others for actually for much longer than that as 2016 2017

was a moment in a genocide but there have been instances of more military atrocities against the rohingya population dating back to the 1970s as well yeah so this is a long term kind of uh situation in which the bangladesh have been hosting rohingya and yeah i mean i think conditions in those camps are really really challenging the major issue now is the arising insecurity in the camps as some rohingya militia groups have gained ascendancy in the camps most of which have very little public support among the Rakhine population, should be noted. The major dynamic that's happened recently, I mean, the Arakan army, which is almost entirely of Rakhine ethnic groups and has

broad public support among the Rakhine population of Rakhine state, has made massive advances across Rakhine state and now controls virtually all of northern Rakhine state and is pushing south it took the city of Tondwe and the airport which is the first time a resistance group had taken an airport it recently took a naval base the first time that has ever happened in the history of the Myanmar military and now it's pushing as far south as Gua potentially threatening to control the entire state. So as this has occurred, the Myanmar military is in a state of complete panic. And as it is losing forces on this front, but also on numerous other fronts, it has attempted to kind of buttress its forces through force conscription.

buttress its forces through forced conscription and in the most potentially the most horrifying move imaginable it is forcibly conscripted the rohingya into the mamar military they conducted genocide against the rohingya population and now they are forcing them to wear the uniform of their genocider it's kind of a level of horror it's hard to understand And one way in which they've undertaken this effort is by collaborating with Rohingya militia forces, including ARSA, the African Rohingya Salvation Army, and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization, ARSA, which have presence in the camps and have been facilitating recruitment from the camps. So the primary aim here is a military one but a secondary aim which is really critical is undermining intercommunal cohesion in rakhine state yeah because ultimately like the myanmar military operates through coercion force and violence but also through fragmentation so that

it doesn't face a unified resistance yeah and in this case they want to incite instability by creating hatred between the rohingya and Rakhine population and building off of the vitriol that had built over decades. So this is kind of a new paradigm that everyone is trying to better understand. But yeah, it's kind of a new level of horror. Yeah, and it's particularly horrific, as you say. Yeah, and it's particularly horrific, as you say. I think sometimes there's a tendency, especially with people who perhaps are not as familiar with the situation in history there,

to lump ethnic groups in as sort of monolithic actors, right? Or homogenous to be like, okay, so the Rohingya, as represented by ASA and the RSO, have joined the junta, which is not the case. Like every Rohingya person I speak to, everyone I speak to in Cox's Bazaar shares a loathing for those organizations their forced conscription of young people and yeah their solidarity with the junta

that committed genocide against and it continues to commit a genocide against these people and I think the first thing we need to do is move away from that kind of homogenous perspective but maybe we could explain there have been a few like accusations of the arakan army making attacks against a range of people right range of specifically range of people who are not armed who are not part of rso or asa yeah can you explain like what we know and what we don't know there sure yeah i think there's um just to start, there is a massive fog of war in Rakhine state, maybe worse incident in which hundreds of ranger were killed in a drone strike and fortify rights which is a human rights organization conducted a investigation to the incident and asserts that the arkhan army was responsible for that of course the aa disputes these claims and i think there's a few recent interviews with the commander-in-chief

of the arkan army jimrat 9 uh where you know he articulates his side of the story which you can find on irwadi.com and i think in a few other news outlets yeah the diplomat did one as well he's been on a publicity uh tour i guess recently yeah absolutely i don't know if you've seen this but like his uh his tendency to call rohingya people bangladeshis it is unfortunate given that that's a language that was used to justify the genocide right absolutely yeah it reflects kind of the language that the myanmar military used or bengalis he'll call them exactly yeah it was very reflective of that yeah so this is really challenging in part because i think that there is kind of an important distinction between the Myanmar military and the Arkan army in this

case, in part because the Arkan army has like broad public support among the Rakhine public. Yeah. And so it has a more of a legitimate stake to governance than the Myanmar military, which has none. And so this is,

it's kind of an issue that requires attention and an honest accounting of the facts and a long process of reconciliation, in part because the Arkan army is likely there to stay as a governing stakeholder. So that is a really tricky kind of set of conditions. And the other side of this is that the Rakhine public, I think there is a deep sense of this is that the Rakhine public, I think

there's a deep sense of grievance among the Rakhine public. And this is a population that has also faced years of intense political alienation and persecution, not to mention war and violence. You know, last year when Saipan Moka hit Rakhine state, the Myanmar military did virtually nothing to help them. So it's a population with legitimate grievances, and their perception is that the international community only focuses on the Rohingya public's well-being. I think the international community can do a better job of showing sympathy for the Rakhine public's interests. I think sympathy is not like zero sum in that sense, and that needs to be done yeah but honestly like that equating grievances is also really kind of unfair and dishonest you know this rohingya population is

marginalized to uh just such an extreme degree and so those are a really interesting report by doctors without borders not too long ago that showed that only like 600 000 of the 2.8 million Rohingya in the world live in Myanmar. 57% are living in camps in Bangladesh or in IDP camps in Myanmar. So it's like, there's just like a highly vulnerable population that has experienced genocide. You know, it's like there are, there's a power imbalance,

you know? So it's like, it's not the same. I don't know. The whole process of Rakhine-Rohingya reconciliation is one that deserves immediate and urgent attention, but it's also a long-term process of constructing a governance structure that is acceptable and that's not highly exclusionary of Rohingya

and these sorts of things. So it's a highly... And beyond the fact that we we need more a deliberate investigation some of these incidents i think a broader conversation about reconciliation and justice needs to needs to take place yeah and it's definitely one at least you know i speak to people who are probably on the more progressive side of of the resistance and it's one that they've acknowledged like it's something that they need to address and kind of the litmus test for like a post-Hunter Myanmar is like are there places for these people who there weren't places for in this state before

but yeah how we get there is it's difficult and uh I don't think there's not there's not a clear pathway that anyone's kind of pointed to just yet yeah the one thing I would add is like this is sort of emblematic of broader perceptions of myanmar and approaches to peace building myanmar is that there's there's often a horizontal approach that like we need to work on the intercommunal level individual level trust building that sort of thing i think there is a place for that for sure yeah but um we've done a couple pieces of research with an academic at UT Austin who has found some really interesting stuff about the nature of conflict in the country and nature of cohesion in the country. And she's found, including through some experimental research studies and designs, which are quite revealing, I think that national identity is often more important to respondents in her surveys than ethnic identity

which is which kind of cuts against like the traditional perceptions of yeah of how miamara is like oh it's this irreconcilably fractious place and it's so hard to build trust between communities and that sort of thing but her research kind of points to the vertical dimension where it's the nature of miam Myanmar politics and the nature of governance structures that highly exclusionary discriminatory governance structures have sustained you know conflict for so long in the country and this is kind of like the main argument for the resistance you know it's like a lot of the stakeholders at least a critical mass within this resistance movement they're trying to assert a new political paradigm in the country you know a more stable

political paradigm in which the Myanmar military is not a dominant stakeholder in which violence is not your source of power yeah and in which that's not you know built on exclusionary norms of belong so it's like it is genuinely a revolution in this sense and and that is why they're they're kind of pushing against the international pressures to enter into a power sharing agreement with the myanmar military because there's a perception that if the myanmar military remains in a position of political power they will interrupt this reform process and then violence will persist in the country yeah yeah and i think that's it's probably a reasonable assumption to make like again this is like one of those things that I see a lot in different places in the world where I go. There's this tendency to see things, I think, from a sort of colonial perspective and just be like, oh, these ethnicities will squabble and fight.

And that's not necessarily the case at all. If you look even to the PDFs, like I was speaking to someone the other day who was saying like there are hijabi Muslim women fighting with the Karen right now, which is something which doesn't line up with this idea of an inherently islamophobic like you know sort of mass of buddhist people in myanmar which i think yeah it's a little oversimplified to say that stuff and i think sometimes reductive and it's the the analysis of of myanmar like as a place where colonialism is still occurring and and the methods of colonialism like lots of the things you describe right like promoting fractures promoting these different ethnic identities which are seen as kind of zero sum and mutually exclusive these are things that the united kingdom did or britain did all around the world for centuries and it's not rocket science to uh to see how that jumps to another group which especially in some cases

was trained by the british or had relations with the british and and you know to see how we got there but i think we'll take another little break here we'll come back and we i want to discuss the resilience of the the hunter and how it's hanging on Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together. You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens.

So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all. It's lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zetron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires.

From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the field, and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though.

I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. Hola mi gente, it's Honey German and I'm bringing you Gracias, Come Again. Check out betteroffline.com. podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to

musicians and creators, sharing their stories, struggles, and successes. You know it's going to be filled with chisme laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week, we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, el té caliente, and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral. Listen to Gracias Come Again

on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez.

Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba.

Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Gianna Parente. And I'm Jimei Jackson-Gadsden. We're the hosts of Let's Talk Offline, the early career podcast from LinkedIn News and iHeart Podcasts. One of the most exciting things about having your first real job

is that first real paycheck. You're probably thinking, yay, I can finally buy a new phone. But you also have a lot of questions like, how should I be investing this money? I mean, how much do I save? And what about my 401k? Well, we're talking with finance expert Vivian Tu, aka Your Rich BFF, to break it all down.

I always get roasted on the internet when I say this out loud, but I'm like, every single year you need to be asking for a raise of somewhere between 10 to 15 percent. I'm not saying you're going to get 15% every single year, but if you ask for 10 to 15 and you end up getting eight, that is actually a true raise. Listen to this week's episode of Let's Talk Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. all right we're back so for the last little segment of this podcast i would like to discuss yeah how the the burmese military is holding on to power like when i speak to soldiers who have defected i speak i've spoken to about half a dozen i guess soldiers who have defected over time it's almost comic how disorganized and chaotic things are and at the same time it's terrible the way like every single one of them

has described to me that their families were essentially held as collateral to stop them deserting right and so they had to work with the civil disobedience movement to first extract their families before they themselves took their weapons in most cases because they got a bounty for their weapons and went to join the resistance or in some cases went into exile so like maybe that gives us a good view on how the hunter is it's continuing to force people to fight in this war that it's losing but can you explain a little bit of how they've held on to power sure yeah I guess the first thing to note is that rates of defection are totally historic. I mean, there's, by our count, about 15,000 deserters, which is actually not radically different than historical norms. The Myanmar military has comparatively high rates of desertion even before the coup. So that's not far outside of the norm. But the

defection, I think there's about 5,800 defectors by our count since the coup, which is unprecedented. There's never really been defection to resistance in the MR's history. The other factor is the number of individuals who are surrendering without a fight with you know with that with putting a little resistance that number is hard to count but it's by our yeah by our read it seems to be quite high there's forms of acts of disloyalty occurring that are not you know spurring institutional collapse but are that are degrading the member military's fighting capabilities which is a really important dynamic so say that at the outset. The other thing I'd say is that I think we need to sort of think about this at three levels. So the rank and file soldiers, they are significantly

demoralized. Most did not join the military to fight. They joined the military for economic stability and for social status. And neither of those are available to them under this military's leadership. They certainly did not join to commit atrocities against the Bomar Buddhist population, which is now what they're in pursuit. So I think that population, the large number of rank and file soldiers, is highly demoralized. And that's where you have seen lots of desertion, defection, often from the front lines, though. That population's defection, desertion is not going to trigger institutional collapse. At the second level, you have like a commander corps major, major and above,

and these, I think since Operation 1027, you've seen their morale to drop. And I mean, there's been the fall of Lashio and the loss of the Northeast Regional Command, the first time in the universe history that a regional command has been taken. That has sent shockwaves through the commander level. The other thing is that Mino Line, the commander-in-chief, in his attempt to consolidate power and protect himself from internal fragmentation he's rotating commanders based on loyalty not based on effectiveness which is also degrading the Myanmar military's fighting capability but it's also that's maybe one reason why you have

seen less acts of disloyalty within that layer at the senior level i mean mostly most of those senior member military officials who are based in napeda i think they until the fall of lascio and the resistance moving into mandalay there was relatively high levels of sense of security and morale was was okay i suppose um but the fall of lascio and the ensuing events has really inflamed internal frustration from what we understand yeah so this and this has also triggered some some shifts in the way in which the myanmar military operates its patronage structures so traditionally the patronage structure is essentially like a feudal state i mean you have like a commander-in-chief that is extremely powerful has authority to rotate

or fire or arrest virtually anyone i mean just huge amounts of power centralized there the deputy commander-in-chief has little capability to challenge the commander-in-chief's authority but then you have these regional commanders that operate as um kind of feudal lords at the regional level they're able to extract huge amounts of value or wealth through, you know, extractive industries, illegal industries, all with total impunity, but often, you know, with the approval of NAPIDAW. And that approval was often just given. Now it's less, it's less easily given. I mean, you've seen 90 senior officers shuffled, changed positions since the coup, and 50 have been like removed

or arrested by our tracking. And you've also seen individuals detained and arrested because I think there's 15 colonels or above, mostly brigadier generals and major generals who have been arrested for business related activities, which i think is emblematic of like the restructuring of the patronage network yeah and centralizing the patronage network with min online himself if you do not have his personal approval you cannot conduct business activities including these highly lucrative scam operations that are generating billions in value but also really frustrating the chinese yeah so this whole patronage structure, which is critical to sustaining the member military, is being reoriented.

And we'll see whether or not that helps sustain the institution or introduces more instability. But ultimately, the forms of resilience, I guess you would call it, are the ones maybe you pointed to. I mean, their structure. I mean, it's like rotating commanders and senior officers regularly, holding families hostage. Essentially, you know,

a soldier is sent to the front lines, its family remains in the barracks. Payment is often made to the families, not to the frontline soldier. And there's retribution if the frontline soldier defects or deserts. This is also where the 5800 number I mentioned earlier is likely a radical undercounting because and also the 15 000 desertion because a lot of people are recorded as kia when they're actually they've deserted

or defected so right anyways i'm not sure if that answers your question with some some thoughts yeah no i think it does. Yeah, one of the guys I met with described basically his entire, I guess, squad went out on a patrol and defected. I guess the PDF had been... I don't know how to describe it, really. It's basically shit-talking them in their barracks or in their position for months, right? You see this a lot. It's a kind of unique feature of the uh of the conflict in myanmar like guys with megaphones just being like you can surrender if you want you know your life is miserable and i guess in this case it worked and yeah they uh they will be registered as kia they went out on a patrol and never came back

yeah i guess the other dynamic is that like you need to align motivation and opportunity for defection and desertion. And the motivation is there in a lot of cases, but opportunity is not. The resistance is committing some resources to these efforts, but it's really limited given the scale of the challenge. There's a lot of factors that need to come together, like the ability to safely communicate with resistance, There's a lot of factors that need to kind of come together, like the ability to safely communicate with resistance, the ability to move into resistance-held areas, the perception that we were accepted and not face retribution against your family and deep uncertainty about leaving this institution that is kind of a state within a state that's why we're not seeing the kind of large-scale commander level um defection desertion i think right so one last thing i wanted to talk about before we finish up if people i guess keep tabs on the conflict they

would have seen recently a video i am sure you've seen it the kachin independence army shooting down an aircraft with an fn6 chinese man portable air defense system it's what they sort of called man pads i'm sure women can carry them too just fine uh or anyone else for that matter but i think it happened in january and the videos just come out can you explain the significance of that within the conflict landscape in myanmar yeah i guess there's a couple points one is about china's posture and the other is about the military balance i think yeah the myanmar military's air power is its primary comparative advantage i think at this point it has fewer light infantry forces than the resistance,

but that it's heavy artillery and especially its air power. You know, that's how it terrorizes the population. Yeah. But it's also been a source of, it's been a very powerful mobilizing force. I mean, I think after phase one of 1027, the MNDAA Kokong armed group essentially took back territory that it perceived to be their own and took the town of laokai which was really surprising but a major advance and then everyone kind of perceived okay they'll just stay in the quote-unquote kokong areas they'll stay where they are but i think there's a deep perception among the mndaa but also broader ethnic minority

groups that as long as the Myanmar military is in power and has air capability, it will terrorize the public. Even if it cannot reach or ever take back Laokai, it will bomb it. And that's exactly what we saw after 1027. You saw airstrikes in Laokai. You saw airstrikes in Lhasa, the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Army. You see airstrikes in parts of Rakhine State that the Myanmar military has no chance of recapturing. You know, it's a terrorizing the public thing. Yeah, it's a punitive thing. Yeah, it's a punitive thing. So, and it also is powerfully motivating. It's like, okay, now you see the MNDAA pushing all the way to Lascio, and a lot of people didn't think they would do that. But it's like, if you have a perception

that this Myanmar military can hurt me from a distance they may need to eliminate them altogether in order to achieve the level of stability and safety that they pursue so like it's a double-edged sword in that regard but going back to your question i mean i think like if the resistance is capable of constraining the myanmar military's air capability. It radically changes the balance of power. I mean, I think there are some elements of this that have been a primary focus of some of the international human rights community, for example, constraining access to jet fuel and these sorts of things, trying to push for an arms embargo, none of which have succeeded.

But there's been kind of progress on the margins although i think we just saw russia delivered jet fuel and via maritime routes in southern uh you know mar so yeah in exchange for the artillery shells that the bmr has sent to russia right okay i didn't realize okay yeah yeah so i mean they're continued they're able to sustain that and you know the chinese have sold, I think, six aircraft last year. So they still have this fighting capability and they're still able to extract foreign exchange, essentially, by stealing from exporters. But that's a whole different conversation. But anyway, like, I think, yeah, this is a key dynamic if they're able to affect their air power.

The other thing is that, like, China has attempted to play both sides. I mean, historically, that's sort of their approach. I mean, they have deep connections with armed organizations along its border, maybe closer even than with the Myanmar military, but they also provide political legitimacy and material assistance to the Myanmar military. They just actually signed an MOU on law enforcement and security or some sort to the Myanmar military. They just actually signed an MOU on law enforcement and security or some sort with the Myanmar military. That's a deep and abiding relationship, in part because the Chinese don't see an alternative. I mean, I don't think they

have much trust for the NUG or other resistance groups. And despite the fact that they don't, they also don't really trust the Myanmar military or perceive them to be competent, they see them kind of as their only potential partner in Ipudong. But it's kind of a question as to whether this strategy is still working for them. I think we've seen lots of acts of defiance from both sides, the Myanmar military and resistance groups vis-a-vis China. I mean, the Myanmar military, they've been pressuring them to hold elections since the coup, essentially. And they're really no closer to that happening. I mean, I think they dissolved the NLD,

something the Chinese said not to do. And more recently, they've designated a number of resistance groups as terrorist organizations, which essentially obviates political negotiations, which I think would certainly frustrate the Chinese, given that they hope to achieve stability through political negotiations between a subset of resistance groups and the Myanmar military. So there are these kind of acts of defiance also on the resistance side. I mean, the Chinese are pushing for ceasefires, and yet the resistance continues to push into

the country. And there's sort of a perception that as the resistance groups aligned with China, quote-unquote aligned with China, maybe they aren't, gain ascendancy on the battlefield in particular, that China's influence gains. But I'm not sure whether that's the case. It might actually be inverse. As these groups push into Myanmar and have more territorial control, maybe they have more options and they're less dependent on the Chinese. So that relationship in the north

along the Chinese border is also very much in flux. I don't think it's clear exactly how that'll play out. Yeah, no, it's not. And I think that's sort of the big question that's overhanging. Obviously, you have actors

that are more closely aligned with China, like the United W state army who have sort of largely remained aloof from the conflict or aloof maybe it's the wrong word but are not like directly committing most of their forces to the conflict it's probably a better way of saying it right yeah i think so and now there's a ton of pressure on them to stop selling arms to other groups. So we'll see whether that happens. Yeah. Which is probably where the Kachin independence army was able to get the surface to where missiles from,

which brings us back to that. But yeah, it's, um, it's never not complicated, but it's always very sad that like the folks caught in the middle of this are suffering horrendously and sometimes suffering kind of out of sight and out of mind for so many people this is you know our news cycle continues to kind of either

trivialize or completely ignore what's happening in myanmar which is really sad people often ask me like where they can find reliable news sources and where they can send their money if they want to help people in myan. Do you have any good suggestions for that? Sure, yeah. I mean, I think for news, I guess for like day-to-day news, like Frontier Myanmar is a fantastic source, as is Myanmar Now and the Irrawaddy. They have English language content

that would be really interesting and accessible. My organization, the US Institute of Peace, you can check out our website. We publish a lot of analytical work on there related to the conflict you're welcome to check there i think there's a really good another podcast it's really good insight myanmar that is worth checking out started as like a buddhism oriented podcast talking about vipassana now it is branched into a much broader range of issues. Some of the best stuff I've heard. And actually affiliated with Insight Myanmar is an organization called Better Burma

that provides humanitarian assistance and one you could contribute to. There's an organization called Skills for Humanity that provides a lot of humanitarian assistance on the ground. And you mentioned Liberate Myanmar before we started recording. That would also be a good group to support. Yeah, yeah.

I think Schools for Humanity also accepts, maybe they accept direct. I was speaking to them about medical equipment that they needed. I don't know if they accept direct donations or not, but people who want to volunteer medically, that's one to look out for. Yeah, that was fantastic, Billy. Is there any way, anything else you'd like to plug like where people can follow you or usip online usip.org um most of my writing is on there um i'm on twitter at b-i-l-l-e-e the number four the letter d but yeah i mean i checked those sources

i mentioned um it's too bad there's not more kind of content in the mainstream media, but there's a lot of really incredible reporting coming from the ground from people taking incredible risks to share information. So I encourage you to support some of those local outlets. Yeah, definitely, including financially, if you can. It's like they're doing the work that really needs to be done. Thank you so much for your time. Yeah, thank you, James.

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I'm bringing you all the latest happening in our entertainment world and some fun and impactful interviews with your favorite Latin artists, comedians, actors, and influencers. Each week, we get deep and raw life stories, combos on the issues that matter to us. Each week, we get deep and raw life stories, combos on the issues that matter to us, and it's all packed with gems, fun, straight-up comedia, and that's a song that only Nuestra Gente can sprinkle. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, five-year-old Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez was found off the coast of Florida. And the question was, should the boy go back to his father in Cuba? Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or stay with his relatives in Miami?

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