It Could Happen Here - Can Biden Still Win?

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

Robert and Gare enter the KHIVE to discuss post debate polls, whether Biden will step down, and if Kamala Harris could replace him on the ballot.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts from. Welcome to Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get real and dive straight into todo lo actual y viral. We're talking música, los premios, el chisme, and all things trending in my cultura. I'm bringing you all the latest happening in our entertainment world and some fun and impactful interviews with your favorite Latin artists, comedians, actors, and influencers. Each week, we get deep and raw life stories, combos on the issues that matter to us, and it's all packed with gems, fun, straight up comedia, and that's a song that only nuestra gente can sprinkle. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The 2025 iHeart Podcast Awards are coming.

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at iHeart.com slash podcast awards. That's iHeart.com slash podcast awards. Welcome to It Could Happen Here, a podcast about it happening here. It being the slow crumbling of the old world and the painful birth of the new, and here to talk about the painful birth of the new world is someone who was, compared to me, very recently born, Garrison Davis. How are you doing, Gar? Good, good. As a new member of the Cahive Nation, I have a new life under me now. Yeah, you've embraced the Kamala of it all and are now just are now just vibing. Yeah, it's a beautiful place to be. Yeah, unfortunately, it might be just as delusional as Biden's own insistence that he should be the one to run. And that's kind of what we're talking about here today.

Oh, good. I love delusion and its impact on American political life. I love delusion and its impact on American political life. So our initial post-debate comments were a little bit frenzied, a little bit chaotic, as was the debate, I suppose. And post-debate polls were also just kind of a mess initially with wildly differing results from source to source. But over time, they have since stabilized and kind of synced up. To like succinctly put it, essentially, the debate undid most of the pro Biden shifts that had happened in the wake of Trump's felony conviction. Yeah, and I've seen some polls

have shown it tightening up a little bit again. But it's it's very I mean, I always wonder like how much, you've got kind of two camps, broadly speaking, in terms of the people who seem like they're not completely insane. One of them is kind of the Nate Silver side of things, which shows Biden as having fallen fairly far behind and having, you know, he's got Biden at about a 30% chance, which is where Trump was in 2016. So that doesn't mean zero. Whereas the new 538 polling average, and I kind of have been following their new head of statistics for a while, has it still close to a dead heat? Yeah. And then obviously, I, you know, there's arguments that people will make that Trump

or that Biden is actually very far behind, which have more to it than the arguments that biden that the biden is going to win in a landslide the the kind of democratic like the polls are wrong entirely i don't think that's likely but i i think we're looking at somewhere between biden as a definite like underdog or more or less tied. I guess that's where it seems to me like the evidence still is. Yep. A USA Today Suffolk University poll conducted immediately after the debate gave Trump a four point boost. The week after the debate, a New York Times Siena poll found Trump's lead had increased by 3%, now leading by six points with likely voters. Other questions were polled in the wake of the debate. A CNN poll found that 75% of Democrats

believe the party would have a better chance of defeating Trump with a candidate other than Biden. And overall, yes, his number dropped or kind of coasted with what it had been in like, you know, April, March, February. And according to Politico, other than Trump in 2020, no incumbent has trailed this far behind in horse race polling since Jimmy Carter's reelection bid 44 years ago, which does not make me feel super optimistic. It's not great. And man, it would be, I suspect the polls are still overemphasizing it to a degree, because if Biden losing by 6% would be like the worst performance of a Democrat in like a generation, like in a long, long time. And I just don't believe it's going to be that far off. But like, it is definitely, things are a lot uglier than they were when we recorded our last horse race episode. Correct. Things are a lot uglier than they were when we recorded our last horse race episode, right? Like the debate was somewhere between pretty bad and catastrophe in terms of its impact on the polls.

Absolutely. And but Trump, what Trump actually gained himself as a candidate is not very much. It's mostly it's mostly it's mostly decreases on Biden. And five pollsters did pre and post debate polls. And Trump is gaining on the margin. But in none of the polls did he gain anything more than a four point swing. So they're all pretty consistent. And it's not it's not all the end of the world here either. A poll released last Saturday by Bloomberg and Morning Consult showed Biden narrowing Trump's post debate lead,

specifically in swing states, with only a 2% difference between all seven swing states, with Biden being ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Yeah. 2% is within that margin of error. So things are also starting to level up over time. Yeah. And I think some of this may have to do, we're going to talk a bit about Project 2025, which I tend to think, and we've been chatting about this online all week in our work chat, people are overemphasizing as opposed to what Trump is, because Project 2025 is basically a blueprint for a Christian fascist takeover of the. published by the Heritage Foundation. And a lot of people who have been affiliated with Trump, who were in his administration last time, are on board with it, have talked about it, have boosted it. So people are obviously scared of it. I think what Trump has actually promised to do in office, which is the Agenda 47, we did a whole week of stuff on it, is a more realistic thing to be afraid of. But either way, I think that some of that tightening is probably a mix of you've got every you had a bunch of

kind of on the fence voters swing away from Biden because he performed so badly in the debate. And then it has, Dems have done a pretty intensive job of spreading out a lot of, you know, what you might call fear porn over a fascist takeover of the country. And I think that's part of why things might be tightening back up. I mean, it would be nice to eventually one year vote for something instead of just be voting against something. But again, I'm not sure if we'll ever get to that point again. Hasn't happened yet. Well, no, no, no. I mean, I was, I remember I got to vote for Obama the first time he ran and it was hard

not to be optimistic. So immediately after the debate, we had a whole bunch of like friends of Biden, kind of upper level Democrat, not like online influencers, but like actual like influential, like pundits and people, you know, call for perhaps Biden should step down, perhaps we should find somebody else. And this has kind of been the ongoing post debate ever since the debate has been this question. And we'll get we'll kind of get to this a little bit more later. Honestly, I think we had a stronger chance at this possibility a week or two ago. I think by now, Democrats have largely kind of closed ranks around Biden. But this is definitely still developing. And I've been keeping up with

all of Biden's appearances in the media since the debate, just because I've been interested to see how he will handle this kind of universal flub. I watched his ABC interview and his recent phone calls into various morning news shows. In all of those, he did not perform especially well. As expected, they were slow and sometimes kind of like mumbly, but neither have they been like the death blow to his campaign needed to finalize the shift to an alternative candidate. Instead, we're just kind of coasting along with this general like uncertainty regarding the Democratic candidacy. And meanwhile, Biden is just continuing to affirm that he will be the one to lead the ticket.

I'm going to quote from Washington Post here, quote, as of Sunday, nine House Democrats, four privately and five publicly, had called for Biden to exit the race. In addition, at least 18 current and former top Democrats as of Saturday had publicly raised concerns about Biden's fitness for office and his ability to defeat Trump, unquote. And it has remained the same since then. There's going to be meetings in the next few days, including the day after we record this. We're recording this on Monday. So there's going to be meetings in the Senate and in the House about kind of this issue. So this is definitely still developing, but you're starting to see more and more politicians fall into rank. AOC just put out a statement saying, no, you're starting to see more and more politicians fall into rank. AOC just put out a statement saying, no, we're going to we're going to all support Biden.

So, like, there was this uncertainty for a while. And now I think people are kind of being told to, like, come on, get get on the platform. Yeah. But Biden hasn't been handling this well, like personally, either. No. He's come across like very angry. No, the emails I've been getting from the biden campaign have been wild and i've been blaming podcasters he's been blaming yeah yeah and i'm kind of bummed that it's the pod save guys he got angry at we've been we've been shitty to joe biden for so much longer than those

assholes yeah but he's he's been treating it very weirdly he's been doing a lot of like a denial of the polling he's been doing doing some revisionist history, very magical thinking regarding like 2020 polling. I think, I think kind of referencing the democratic primary, but still the way that he's talking about it, it's making it sound like he, you know, like he was behind in the polls in 2020, that he was that, that, that Democrats were behind in the polls in 2022, which just wasn't true. The red wave comment was, was certain pundits and Republicans trying to conjure a red wave, but the actual polls were very accurate in 2022. And he's also crediting himself for that red wave not happening in 2022.

So he's been having a lot of weird statements, like blaming media and blaming the elites for trying to replace him on the ticket. I'll include one clip here from The Morning Joe. Come on, give me a break. I'm getting so frustrated by the elites. Now I'm not talking about you guys, but about the elites in the party who they know so much more. If any of these guys don't think I should run against me, go announce the president. Challenge me at the convention. Kind of his continuous line to justify his own candidacy has been him claiming that he won the primary, which is a ridiculous thing to say as an incumbent, because like, come on. Come on.

And he has repeatedly said that Democratic voters in the primaries have, quote, spoken clearly and decisively. They've chosen me to be the nominee of the party. That's not how it worked. Quote, do we now just say that process didn't matter, that the voters don't have a say? There wasn't a process. I declined to do that. How could we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that. Unquote.

in our nation if we ignore it in our own party i cannot do that i will not do that unquote which is just absurd right because like especially there was many people who actually voted in the yeah like false primary for like the like other option yeah but like polls i just saw like 70 percent of them 75 percent of americans would prefer to vote for someone besides biden like it's it's absurd especially when you're running running an uncontested as an incumbent. If you want people to challenge you, you could have said so. Come on. This is pretty goofy. No real primary for the Dems, and there usually isn't. That's not abnormal with an incumbent. But in this case, people have severe questions about the incumbent's fitness to do the job in a physical way. Like, I hate to say it, but like Trump might physically be better able to survive a four year term than Biden is, you know, not not that I think he's mentally a better president. I don't think honestly, part of what we are accepting here is that like that.

So that doesn't really matter. Right. is that like, that doesn't really matter, right? Like we're all kind of acknowledging if you're on team anything but Trump because he might end the concept of democracy in this country, then you're accepting that like, yeah, I am not, I am voting for a guy who probably can't really do the job anymore. And just assuming that the people around him

will not be as evil. Like you do kind of have to accept that. Otherwise you're just lying to yourself about the state that Joe is in because he's not all there. He's not all there the way he was in 2020. No, but do you know what still is here? Just like it was back in 2020. Capitalism, baby.

We didn't manage to take it out, even though we elected this, our communist leader, Joseph Biden, Chairman Joe. Enjoy these capitalism-sponsored ads. Hey, I'm Jack Peace Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series, Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature. I'm Jack Peace Thomas, and I'm inviting you to join me

in a vibrant community of literary enthusiasts dedicated to protecting and celebrating our stories. Black Lit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while commuting or running errands, for those who find themselves seeking solace, wisdom, and refuge between the chapters. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Together, we'll dissect classics and contemporary works

while uncovering the stories of the brilliant writers behind them. Black Lit is here to amplify the voices of Black writers and to bring their words to life. Listen to Black Lit on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone

from Nobel winning economists to leading journalists in the field. And I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts.

Check out betteroffline.com. If you love hearing real conversations with your favorite Latin celebrities, artists, and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators, sharing their stories, struggles, and successes. You know it's going to be filled with chisme laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week, we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, el té caliente, and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral.

Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian Gonzalez. Elian.

Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation.

Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are back. Yeah, so there's a report that came out from Chip 50, which is like an analytics project. It's like the Civic health and institution project so it's like a survey uh of all 50 u.s states um and they did a survey on like opinions of voters before and after the debate and there showed like fairly small movement like very little was changed at all

in terms of like and primarily what was changed wasn't people going from Biden to Trump, but from people preferring from preferring Biden to preferring other, right? Someone else, someone else. Right. And so that does kind of go back to what we're like. People are not making their minds up about Trump.

Like, and I think what the dims can do if Biden stays in and he doesn't seem like he's leaving, it seems like the primary thing that will make progress for them is hitting on how dangerous Trump having a second term will be. That seems to be what moves the needle. Which is part of their current strategy, but their strategy is kind of all in flux right now because of the poor performance in the debate. They're trying to save face on Biden's part, as well as emphasizing that Trump is like a dangerous, uh,

possibility. And again, like even if Biden does decide to drop out or step down, he is going to keep saying he's running until literally the day that happens. Right. Cause that is, that is what you do as a politician.

You are going to, you're going to keep insisting it until one day you are no longer doing that. And that's just kind of how politics goes, but he has made continuous, continuous gestures towards the fact that he is going to stay. He has no plans on stepping down. He wants to win in November.

This Monday, he personally made 20 calls to congressional members, trying to convince them that he is going to be the one on the ticket. No, really, guys, it's going to be me again. Really? And I think part of what he's doing here is like, he does not have

to demonstrate at the moment that he will, like, survive until, like, November. All he has to do right now is run out the clock until the convention, and then it'll be too late to swap him out for anyone else. There's a few other people kind of saying this,

and I believe that is kind of what is happening. All I need to do is just keep delaying this question, keep this uncertainty until the convention, and then it's going to get locked in there. And that's all he needs to do. He doesn't need to demonstrate his viability come November. He just needs to make sure that he gets the official nomination this August. And I don't know, Biden supporters' reactions to this have been really weird, including we've kind of had like a new upgrowth of a pro-Biden personality cult among liberals. Which I feel like largely like a culmination of like MSNBC, Russiagate, like Blue Anon type stuff that people are just now convinced there's like

a secret conspiracy to take down Biden. And any attempts to question Biden's legibility as a candidate could only be rooted in some secret agenda to get Trump elected. So I think this is why they're so volatile about this, is that they think like the only one who would ever propagate questions over Biden's like legibility would be someone who secretly wants Trump to be in office again. And that is such a threat to them that they're lashing out very, very oddly and very conspiratorially against anyone raising questions about maybe Biden's not the best guy, actually. And they're spinning this into like actually being secret Trumpers. It's odd because even the way Biden talks about his own drive to beat Trump is kind of wishy-washy. Certain more polished statements will be like, yes, this is a threat

to democracy. We have to do this to keep Trump out of office. This is an existential threat. But in that ABC interview, he gave a really kind of soft answer to this question, saying that all that he needs to do is just give it his all. And if you stay in and Trump is elected and everything you're warning about comes to pass, how will you feel in January? I'll feel as long as I gave it my all and I did the goodest jobs I know I can do. That's what this is about. So that's not convincing. That's such like cartoons like ninth like cartoons for ninth

graders way of saying it like well what matters is that i tried put all my best work forward no man that doesn't matter at all yeah it is it's not great it's it's it's not it's not reassuring because it doesn't matter if you give it your all if people's lives are are on the line here and you're just like eh i'll give it the old college try you're like okay it means one of two things he's either he either is completely delusional to the point where he doesn't realize how nonsensical that is or he doesn't really think that trump is a threat to democracy in people's lives and i guess the third option would be he doesn't care. Like if he loses reelection, fuck everybody.

If he doesn't get to keep being president, like maybe he is just that kind of person. I do have a feeling that only that kind of person can become president of the United States. Yeah, I mean, like that was kind of my read after the ABC interviews that he seemed just kind of like delusional and narcissistic. Like he really believes after 2020 that he's just kind of like delusional narcissistic like yeah he really

he really believes after 2020 that he's the only one that can beat trump and this feels like like a very genuine view of himself that he's the only one strong enough to beat trump yeah and the more and more that there's been pushback against his legibility the more he's been digging his heels and and i think if things continue like this, I don't think the Democratic Party will be able to organize and unite enough to do like a soft coup and convince Biden to step down. And without a complete united front against Biden,

he himself would need some kind of like excuse to allow himself to step down without sacrificing his pride and showing weakness both in himself and the party. This could be like a convenient medical diagnosis, right? Although the increasing number of calls for him to undergo thorough neurological examination will probably have the same backfire effect

of Biden attempting as much as he can to avoid any in-depth medical and neurological testing. He's been making these comments like, every day I take a neurological test by doing my job. And like, come on, man. Also, we're watching you do your job. It's not convincing. That's part of the problem, bro.

Like you got up in front of the, like, again, referred to the last episode you and I did on the horse race. Our attitude was like, yeah, things have really improved for Biden. I think he's probably the smart money bet. And like, sitting down and watching that, it was horrifying. Like, yeah,

there's no, that's part of why this, you have to, if you're still on team, like, I don't think it's fair what people are saying to Joe. If you're on team, this was bad strategy from the beginning,

expressing any kind of doubt. Well, maybe that's right, but I don't know what else people are supposed to do. If you don't, if you really think that this is, he has not demonstrated like a seriously concerning incapacity for the work. Think about how unprecedented having this degree of open challenging of him as the candidate

this close to an election. I've never seen anything like this. Especially, especially on like an incumbent. Yes. The president. Yeah. And on like an incumbent yes the president yeah and and an incumbent who served two times as vice like that's ridiculous and like the last real uh neurological medical examination that he undertook was last february which for an 81 year old is a very long time especially if you compare like news clips of him from like the

debate to clips of him from last February or last year, there actually is like a decent difference. And I don't know, it seems kind of absurd that he keeps harping on this line for his ABC interview. He declined to take a cognitive test and make the results public in order to reassure voters that he was fit to serve another term, saying that I have a cognitive test every single day doing this job everything i do is a test no not great no he also said that only the lord almighty could persuade him to change his mind and drop out of the race what the fuck what the fuck joe there we go seriously man so that's again not not super reassuring but you know what i can be reassured by robert the fact that sweet lady capitalism is always there for us you know it's always there like a good uncle or something i don't know yeah

yeah yeah something something that State Farm had. I agree. Hey, I'm Jack Peace Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series, Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature. I'm Jack Peace Thomas, and I'm inviting you to join me in a vibrant community of literary enthusiasts dedicated to protecting and celebrating our stories. Black Lit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while commuting or running errands, for those who find themselves seeking solace, wisdom, and refuge between the chapters. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Together, we'll dissect classics and contemporary works

while uncovering the stories of the brilliant writers behind them. Blacklit is here to amplify the voices of Black writers and to bring their words to life. Listen to Blacklit on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hola, mi gente. It's Honey German, and I'm bringing you Gracias, Come Again, the podcast where we dive deep into the world of Latin culture,

musica, peliculas, and entertainment with some of the biggest names in the game. If you love hearing real conversations with your favorite Latin celebrities, artists, and culture shifters, this is the podcast for you. We're talking real conversations with our Latin stars, from actors and artists to musicians and creators, sharing their stories, struggles, and successes. You know it's going to be filled with chisme laughs and all the vibes that you love. Each week, we'll explore everything from music and pop culture to deeper topics like

identity, community, and breaking down barriers in all sorts of industries. Don't miss out on the fun, el té caliente, and life stories. Join me for Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get into todo lo actual y viral. Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Better offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the field, and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible.

Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com.

Check out betteroffline.com. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian.

Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom.

At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are back. It is certainly feeling like 1968 all over again, isn't it? Yeah, yeah. I mean, and that's obviously having an open convention in 68. The chaos around that did not help the Democrats. They did not win that election. We got fucking Dick Nixon. So that's not good.

No, it's not good. With campus protests and everything, it all is starting to feel like 68 over here. So yeah, a lot of people are saints. If Biden does step down before the DNC in Chicago this August, we could have ourselves an open convention to nominate a new candidate. The last time this method was used by Democrats was in 68 at the also Chicago DNC after the leading candidate Senate date. Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated weeks before the convention by a 24 year old Palestinian man for his support of Israel during the Six-Day War.

So again, there is a lot of parallels here. And if it's not going to be Biden, then who is it going to be, right? This was a bigger question last week, and it still is kind of a lingering question in a lot of people's minds. Who's it going to be? Probably Kamala. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, there's really, for a lot of reasons in terms of, including like,, I think what would have to happen with, like, the donations, like, if it were to be a totally new group of people, that would cause insurmountable bullshit. And also, like, if you're talking about from a wargaming-this-out perspective, you know, Kamala does not look bad in the polling and might, in fact, fact be just for a variety of reasons, one of the better choices.

Like I can in my head think, wow, I sure wish it was, you know, Pritzker and Whitmer maybe. But like, I think that a lot of what I've seen in the polls has kind of convinced me that Kamala is probably our best all around bet. And if you include practicality and actually beating Trump. Yes. In the polls, she is consistently higher than any other potential Democratic replacements and doing, if not as well, often better than Biden against Trump, usually closing that race out. I think a CNN poll from last Wednesday showed that she's in the margin of error against Trump nationally with 45 to his 47, which is much better than Biden is doing nationally. that she's in the margin of error against Trump nationally with 45 to his 47, which is much better than Biden is doing nationally. And she's projected to do much

better in an electoral college race than Biden specifically. So there we go. I'm going to quote from CNN here, quote, an anonymously written Google doc titled Unburdened by What Has Been, The Case for Kamala, written by self-described senior operatives within democratic political institutions, has been popping up in group chats of democratic donors and leading coalition groups. It lays out a detailed argument and plan for a campaign. So this doc, I was able to get a hold of a copy, and parts of it definitely read like an Aaron Sorkin script. Like that is the closest thing I could describe this thing as. But I think it is worth digging into here for our last section. So I'm going to read some small parts of this doc. And Robert, I'm curious to hear what your thoughts are on this. It starts by saying, we are currently losing. We need to do something

different to win. The number one most important priority above all others is defeating Donald Trump. Nothing is more important. And we need to be very real that we are currently losing. So off to a good start. Okay. That is, I would argue, accurate. Quote, Biden's debate performance, the campaign's defensive response, and the total lack of plan to reassure his base and the voters about his capability should shake everyone's

confidence that he can win this election. Now, we have three possible options. Biden can take the necessary steps to demonstrate that he is up to the job, he can step aside for another candidate, or Trump will win. The discourse around potential alternative candidates in the event that Biden does step down is increasingly detached from reality. Donors, pundits, and democratic elites are freely slinging around wild ideas about dream tickets. This chaos is used as a shield by stay-the-course advocates who frame the choice as Biden or chaos. The swirl over different possible candidates is obscuring the fact that there's a single clear path forward. There's one path out of this mess and it's Kamala, unquote. And this is one of the interesting things I found about this doc, is that the way that they view this kind of current chaos

as we win, just as a deliberate strategy and as a deliberate tactics just to continue this uncertainty all the way to the convention. And a lot of what this doc advocates for is that we need to call this as soon as possible to give whatever option we're going to go forward with the most amount of success. Whether that's Biden, whether that's Kamala, we need to decide what it is so we don't spend the next few months doing weird Democratic Party infighting

and instead actually lock down what's happening so that there's a cohesive strategy. And they argue that Kamala has the strongest claim to Democratic legibility among all other alternative candidates. Quote, she's the only candidate that can take the reins right now instead of in late August with less than three months to go. To be clear, this isn't an argument about deservedness or why you should personally love Kamala. It's about strategy and winning in the face of unimaginable electoral states yeah now the doc does point out that only biden himself has the power to drop out and uh choose to head off chaos by anointing harris but biden does listen

to people and the people that he listens to listens to other people and that is the audience for the people reading this doc that's what what this is circulating among. That was like the intention. And they argue that if Biden does drop out, Democrats have to unite quickly behind the elected successor, as opposed to inviting this extended period of chaos. And although Kamala has limitations in polls regarding her name recognition, she currently wins any poll of alternative Democratic candidates by a very wide margin. This doc does point out that Kamala is by no means a perfect candidate. She does have real deficits, but they are mostly addressable. The doc mentions her Biden-level approval rating, her involvement with Biden's immigration shortcomings, and her kind of awkward camera

moments reminiscent of a drunk aunt. And, quote, after years of a relatively low profile, voters don't see her as a strong leader for the country. But running as a presidential candidate will allow Harris to present herself in a more commanding light. She'll be a prosecutor going up against a convicted felon, a woman fighting against the man who ended Roe v. Wade, unquote. And that is a lot of the tight sort of messaging that they are promoting if Kamala does end up being the option. A morning consul's political poll on the vice president from June reflects a number of advantages she would have over Trump in a head-to-head match based on his greatest vulnerabilities. A majority of voters see Kamala as mentally fit, level-headed, and prepared, contrast to Trump and even Biden, and a majority of voters trust Kamala on

jobs, abortion, climate change, and LGBTQ rights. Public opinion is already moving towards Harris over Biden. 43% of voters indicate Harris is fit to run compared to Biden's 35. And while the issue is complex and the distance here is relative, she's broadly considered to be on Biden's left on Israel-Palestine, an issue where he has major vulnerabilities. Kamala also has advantages with the younger and POC voters that the Democrats are currently bleeding. In the doc here, they contain some stats on this, saying Biden won the 2020 election by just 44,000 votes, and most of those are votes that he is bleeding. A New York Times Siena poll in February found that Harris is nearly 10 points ahead of Biden with Black voters and 15 points up with Latino voters, 20 points up with young voters.

These are massive advantages. Now, that is older data, but it's probably worth some consideration. Part of the reason why she is also favored among other Democratic contenders is that she has direct access to the Biden-Harris campaign war chest of over $91 million in cash, which would create a smoother transition. Yeah, and is probably, I mean, again, just given the amount of chaos that would be inherent in a totally open convention, it just seems like the only feasible option. And what they're advocating for is that if Kamala takes the position now or soon to now, she'll have an extra month and massive structural advantages. Quote, if we can unite behind Harris in July, we have an extra month of party unity and message unity.

That's a month where we can keep the media focused on Donald Trump, Project 2025, and mega extremism instead of waiting in dread for the next Biden misstep, or talking about Democrats fighting it out to win delicate count. Fear of racism and sexism is playing an outsized role not supported by data. The impact of sexism and racism on the vote is marginal compared to the potential to make gains in the crucial block that will decide the election. Right now, this race hinges on alienated and unenthusiastic double-haters who dislike both Biden and Trump and want an alternative choice. Some polls put the size of this group at 25% nationally or even higher, nearly 30%. It's basically everyone I know.

Especially among inconsistent voters who are likely to decide the election in key battleground states. For these double haters, vote choice is being driven not by prejudice but by anti-enthusiasm for the two currently 80-year-old white men presented here as the only options. Yeah, of course. These voters are also more likely to be young, Hispanic, Black, and women in urban or suburban areas.

The exact kind of voter profile that Kamala is gaining appeal with. And I find this little bit to be the most compelling statement in this entire document because like that lays out an actual map towards how kamala would have a better election viability than biden especially the voters that he's been bleeding dramatically in the past six seven months now the docket does close by saying if biden stays the course we need Kamala to be strong. The most likely outcome is that President Biden declines to step back.

In that case, Kamala's role is more crucial than ever. She will be the strong communicator on the ticket, especially on our most important issue, abortion. Second, many voters will understand her to be Biden's near-guaranteed successor, and we will need to feel comfortable with her potential ascent to the presidency to vote for the Biden-Harris ticket. For anyone in the Biden's nominee and we must rally around him camp, it's essential that we project confidence in his selection of a running mate. By one, pushing the administration to stop sidelining Kamala. By two, promoting

Kamala as the leader of the party and country. Three, be prepared to align with political and financial support. And three, debate over and ultimately organize around a new running mate. Consolidation around Vice President Harris will not guarantee victory in November. No option is free of risk at this point, but this is our clearest path to win. We should take it. And that's how the document ends. And I like some of the arguments they make here. I don't like Kamala as a person. I think she has many issues, both as a person and as a- She's a cop, I don't like cops.

Absolutely, especially if their messaging will be like, Kamala the prosecutor against Trump the felon, which I personally don't like, but also- But that could work. That's not gonna lose her important voters. That's not gonna lose her all of the anarchists who already aren't gonna vote.

Yeah, that might be a really good strategy because americans do not feel the same way about prosecutors as i do and he's you do right like we have to accept that at a certain point i think so i i and i i think that's most frustrating to me about the fact that it doesn't look like biden's going to step down is that like the smartest thing they could do strategy wise would be to drop that announcement on like Monday of next week and utterly like cut the wind out of the sails of the RNC. Yeah. Like suddenly the biggest story is that,

and not, you know, everything that the Republicans are putting out, like you could actually really do some damage to them because there's, there's not really anything that they could are putting out. Like you could actually really do some damage to them because there's not really anything that they could do in response. And so much media attention right now is being focused on Biden very clearly

not being fit for office. And all of that would go away if Kamala gets put into the spot. Then everyone will start focusing once again on how bad Trump is. And I can understand some of the Biden camp's upsetness at the fact that currently there is just so much attention on Biden and everyone kind of is ignoring Trump. But that just is due to how poorly he himself has been behaving. That is ultimately the Biden campaign's fault that they didn't plan for this contingency.

And if they want all of that, like discourse to stop, they have a very easy option to, um, and it's just reliant on Biden not being too personally prideful and acknowledging that he's just too old for office and there are better candidates out there. So yeah, that is, that is the current, that is the current situation on the rise of the K hive. Something I, I, at this point in very skeptical to think will actually happen, but it may be actually a viable strategy for the democratic party. Yep. I mean,

we'll see what they actually do. Probably keep running Joe Biden and, uh, hope that Americans panic enough about Trump to, but you know, I, we can all dream. No,

to that point, we could also dream. We can all dream. To that point, we could also dream that like the delegates will just like rebel against their like polite duty by not committing to their non-binding promises. Although that would be extremely unprecedented and it would make the DNC

a lot more fun. Oh, we would have a great DNC if that were to go down. Yep. Anyway fun oh we would we would have a great dnc if that were to go down yep anyway well we're gonna have fun at the rnc instead yeah we sure will garrison you and i are going to be on the ground in the exclusion zone and at the convention itself where we cannot have backpacks or gas masks or canned food but i might be able to carry a gun let me see if they do reciprocity uh where what is this is minnesota no this is not minnesota this is wisconsin oh wisconsin this is milwaukee milwaukee you can see how well prepared i am let me see that could make a fun episode all its own i i do have an idea for an episode that i will mention to you off air that i really want to do for the rnc

wait it looks like yes with restrictions i love love restrictions. That's great. We'll see what those are. Stay tuned to hear about those restrictions. Stay tuned, everybody. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can find sources for It Could Happen Here updated monthly at coolzonemedia.com slash sources.

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