It Could Happen Here - Executive Disorder: Spokane Wildfires, Abdul Wins Michigan Primary, Munition Shortage

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. The Dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form. We're launching Podlandia, AEO, rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters,

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Starting point is 00:02:19 Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to everyone watches women's sports on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. AllZone Media. There were some strange-looking people. the R&C. This is It Could Happen Here, Executive Disorder, our weekly newscast covering what's happening in the White House, The Crumbling World, and What This Means for You. I'm Gerson Davis. Today I'm joined by Robert Evans and Mia Wong, with a special segment later on by James Stout, who is on the ground in Spokane. This episode, we're covering the week of July 29th to August 5th,

Starting point is 00:02:58 and let's actually start with James reporting from the wildfires in Spokane. Hi everyone, it's James. I'm in Washington State this week covering the fires here. I will cover fire more in depth on my new show, Natural Courses, which you will soon be able to download wherever quality podcasts given away for free. But I want to catch everyone up on the fires here. I know a lot of folks prefer to consume their news this way and might otherwise not be aware of what's going on. So on the 1st of August, the National Weather Service in each from Washington and in Idaho issued a PDS, a particularly dangerous situation notice. Fires were already burning across much as a state and across much of the Pacific Northwest,

Starting point is 00:03:41 including on the land of the Colville tribes and the Spokane tribe. On Saturday, three fires struck near the north part of the city of Spokane. The PDS doubtless helped some folks prepare. Other folks, I'm sure, will have missed it entirely. Very quickly, people went from nothing to level three, go now warnings. This was somewhat compounded by things like a large travel volleyball tournament happening in an area which got a level three go now warning. What that means, if you're not familiar, there are three levels of warnings when you are evacuated for a fire. And that level three is the most severe one that being like you have to leave your home right now.

Starting point is 00:04:20 Several people have related to me and I want to caveat here that I'm not being critical of the response, which has actually been very good. I'm giving information because more people are going to find themselves in this situation. in the future and I think is important that people understand that the level three warning that buzzed on people's phones and the emergency alert came not very long before they saw fires and even structures on fire in their neighborhood right i think people sometimes think that like someone will come and tell you when it's your time to leave and that's not always going to be possible right and again i'm not conveying that to say that like the response here was poor i'm conveying that to say that people need to understand this because we're all going to have to live with

Starting point is 00:05:00 fire in the West because there has always been fire here, the climate is changing and we are pushing our homes further and further into the wildland urban interface. And that is where this fire began, right? On Saturday, the state was a tinderbox and it was these neighborhoods along the wildland urban interface that caught the brunt of these fast-moving fires that found a plentiful source of fuel and were pushed along by the wind. Currently about a third of the 200,000 people who live here in Spokane have been placed under evacuations orders, and the community is obviously filling the way of that, along with the hundreds of people who lost their homes and all their possessions here. Notable points of the evacuations included buses, evacuating people from old folks' homes,

Starting point is 00:05:42 and a VA hospital was also evacuated by buses. And of course, many people left their homes in their cars with their possessions, their pets, their families, etc. And of course, that resulted in very slow-moving traffic. Nonetheless, from what I heard this morning, seems everyone evacuated in time at least to save themselves. I know many people will be dealing with tragedies, right? They've lost their homes. People will have lost pets. People will have lost things that are incredibly important to them, right? I spoke to people out on the Colville Tribes Reservation who were saying they'd lost homes that their father, mother, grandparents built with their hands, right? These intergenerational homes that are gone. That is absolutely tragic. I want to give an update that I got this

Starting point is 00:06:26 morning from a public information officer of the IMT that's managing this fire. So we'll drop that in right now. My name's Tom Stokesbury. I'm the lead public information officer for California Interagency Incident Management Team 7. So right now there's three fires that make up the Spokane area fires. That's going to be the Fairview Fire, the Old Trails Fire, and the Autumn Lane fire. Currently, all totaled in the acres, it's 10,540. But over the last 24 hours, our firefighters have made tremendous progress in putting control lines in around the entire perimeter of all three fires. Now, that doesn't mean the fires contained or controlled. We just have those management and control lines there. Still have an active firefight. So have active flames in the interior to the

Starting point is 00:07:12 point on the old trails and Fairview fire. We actually had a spot outside the line on each one of those that went to about an acre, acre and a half. But we had the resources in the right place and they were able to pick those up at about one acre each. So that just kind of proves. proves that there's still active heat, hot spots in this interior, and that's why we have engines in all three of these fires still protecting the structures that have not been impacted yet because any kind of wind can throw embers. And right now, the receptive fuels in this area, and by fuels, I mean the vegetation that is so dry, right? Your grass, your brush, very receptive to those embers, proof being as the two spot fires. But we have 1,300

Starting point is 00:07:53 firefighters here. We're expected to be over 2,000 by the end of the week. I also asked about the number of structures impacted and when people here can expect to return home and here's what Tom said. Right now we're well over 700 structures that have been impacted. We do have damage assessment personnel ordered and en route. It's my understanding they'll be showing up today and we'll have them on the ground tomorrow. So we're going to start to get a more accurate number of what those impacted structures look like versus a total loss to just an impacted structure. And those structures include not only people's personal homes, but garages, outbuildings, sheds. But we're going to get a better accurate number

Starting point is 00:08:28 on those over these next few days, trying to get these communities back to where we can get them repopulated. But in addition to that, there's a tremendous amount of hazmat in there. We're talking burn solar panels. We're talking LPG possible gas leaks, the building materials from homes that have been burned, the stuff that's inside those homes. There is a lot of hazmat. So we have to ensure the public is going to be safe before we repopulate and let them back in there, because Because our ultimate goal is life first than property. And that life is not just firefighters, it's the public safety too. While I was at the Firebase camp, I also ran into local community members and businesses who were helping out.

Starting point is 00:09:05 People were constantly dropping off food and snacks and supplies. Here's one local business owner who explained his efforts to me. So my name is Tim Codzie. I'm with JK Boots. I'm one of the owners with my brother and dad. I asked him what him and his company were doing to support the community. On Wednesday, August 5th, we're doing something called Homefront Day. We're going to donate 100% of all the profits of that day to the Spokane residents who lost their homes.

Starting point is 00:09:33 So they could do that. They could participate, just go on our website and just do something, just get something, and that'll go to those people. The other things you can do is you can come here and you can offer to drop off, you know, again, drinks, swipes, essentials. You can look on Facebook. They've posted those things. The other big thing is just there's other funds that are set up. that have like meal trains and because there's about 60,000 people

Starting point is 00:09:54 that are still not able to go back to their homes. Yeah, yeah. What's happening in Spokane is tragic and it is going to impact this community for years to come. It will take a very long time for rebuilding to happen and probably even longer for people to heal emotionally. I want to make sure that we do not overlook the several large ongoing fires

Starting point is 00:10:16 who are impacting the indigenous communities around the city though because as resources, shift to the fires that burn the city, these communities will see fewer resources, and indeed they already have seen fewer resources. I spent the last couple of days visiting the Colville tribes reservations, Spokane tribe reservations. Today, I spoke to folks who would cut their own fire lines around their homes and communities who were repaired to fight the fire, and indigenous people here have lived with fire for thousands of years, right? They have a deep understanding of fire, and people there had decided to stay and to defend their communities even in areas that were impacted by level three evacuations.

Starting point is 00:10:54 Not everybody wrote some people who were more vulnerable, some people who were not able to pass his bait in that response or didn't feel safe doing so left, and the folks stayed. As resources continue to be diverted to fight these fires in Spokane, and as news coverage will continue to center on the city, folks who lost their homes out in these tribal communities will also need help and it might be harder for them to find it. Some of these people are still in their homes. Just today, I spoke to several people who were determined to do their hardest to save their homes and hoping that the wind doesn't pick up. They're cutting their own fire lines in several cases, forestry and mining workers, as well as tribal community members who were on contract fire crews, have been using their machinery and their skills to clear space

Starting point is 00:11:34 and create better firebreaks around their communities. It's a really tragic and difficult situation, especially when combined with this reporting that I will link to of Red Cross volunteers making race. remarks at shelters that made indigenous folks feel unwelcome there. I don't think I need to repeat those, but I will link to the story if you'd like to read it. It is also, of course, amazing to see the strengths and resilience of communities coming together to take care of one another in these tragic situations. I particularly want to highlight the work of the River Warriors Society. I spent a day with them moving supplies from one reservation to another.

Starting point is 00:12:10 I will include a link to the Spokane Tribal Network, which people can use if they'd like to donate to support that mutual aid work. They're really doing excellent work. They're getting people what they need. They're filling those gaps. They're moving more quickly than big organizations of big government. Things can.

Starting point is 00:12:26 Even tribal governments where it will require paperwork, whereas what they're doing is literally standing at gas stations using cards to pay for people's gas. So they can get where they need to go, right? Getting people hotel rooms, getting people food, getting people the things they need to get through this and to begin healing. Today I help load hundreds of pounds of pet food and animal food

Starting point is 00:12:48 into a trailer for instance so that people who need to feed their animals don't have to drive for hours away from their homes right when the risk of fire is high and they want to stay home and do what they can to protect their homes. They're really doing excellent work and I would encourage you to support them if you have the resources. I will have more of this when I get home, currently really tired, I smell like a campfire and I am in the bathroom of a motel

Starting point is 00:13:12 because it's the only quiet place I could find. If you'd like to donate, I would suggest the Spokane Tribal Network. I'm going to include their web address. It's Spokan tribal network.org. Not hard to find. I will also include the Inovia Foundation webpage for donation to folks in Spokane and their ongoing recovery. And yeah, I'll have more on this soon.

Starting point is 00:13:34 Hey, everyone is James again. Just a little pick-up here that I wanted to add. Someone has been arrested for arson in connection with the autumn time. trails fire. I want to remind everyone that an arrest is not a conviction. There were three fires that impacted Spokane and that fire needs more than ignition, right, to spread in the way that it did here. It needs fuel, crucially, in this example, and that fuel was already there, right? That's why I wanted to highlight the PDS that was issued on the 1st of August. Now, I also want to address these conspiracy theories, right? The most common conspiracy theory seems to be that this was an attempt by

Starting point is 00:14:16 big data center companies to clear a block of land in order to have a place where they could put a data center. I can tell you that I've spent the last two days driving hundreds of miles around eastern Washington. There is plenty of land where you could put a data center here without burning down a neighborhood. Data centers are bad. They are destroying. so many beautiful places and so many wonderful things. It doesn't mean that they are comic book evil all the time. I think we need to inject a little rational thought here. We don't have any evidence that it was a data center. If we did, then people would be presenting it, but the data center hypothesis seems to rest on. People want to build the data center near here, therefore

Starting point is 00:15:06 burn down neighborhoods or the relatively common. and frequently recurrent 15-minute cities conspiracy theory, which suggests that rather than 15-minute cities being an aspirational goal for urban planning and a framework around which you consider permitting, building, and potentially growing our cities, they are some kind of George Soros-mandated dictat that is now being enforced by burning people's neighborhoods down in suburban areas.

Starting point is 00:15:33 Again, no evidence to support that other than this wasn't a city that the 15-minute city people consider to be a 15-minute city. I want to address these things because they come up every single time there's a fire. And I think we need, and we're going to talk about this more in my show, natural causes, which you can hear from 17th of August, wherever good podcast is given away for free. There are going to be fires in this ecosystem forever. There have been fires since there have been plants to burn.

Starting point is 00:16:04 Lightning started fires before people ever did. but the people who have been here for tens of thousands of years have lived alongside fire for all that time. We can't entirely suppress fire and remove it from our landscape. This landscape needs fire and it evolved, co-evolved with fire. But there are ways that we can prevent fire from doing what happened today, but they require a lot of effort, they require a lot of resources, and they require some rethinking of how we live alongside fire. That's something I'd like to approach later and in more detail, but I guess I just wanted to address these conspiracy theories because I see more and more of them.

Starting point is 00:16:43 I also want to point out that there is no meaningful restitution to be extracted from one person if that person did start the fire. Healing doesn't come from punishing someone. It comes from helping someone. And in this situation, there are hundreds of families who lost their homes, both on the Kovil Tribes Reservation, the Spokane Tribe Reservation and here in Spokane, the city. and I think the focus should be on how to help those people and how to help them heal rather than blaming one person who may have started this fire who may not, right? We haven't got a conviction yet,

Starting point is 00:17:14 but either way, I want people to remember that this is about a lot more than one person. Thank you, James. In other news, on Monday, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking New York's ban on ICE agents wearing masks. New York State is suing to shut down Kalshi for operating as an unregulated sports betting platform that offers illegal underage gambling. The state is also seeking $36 billion in penalties. This lawsuit comes after a district court ruled against Kalshi in their bid to protect itself

Starting point is 00:17:56 from the enforcement of New York's gambling laws. Prior to this lawsuit from the state, Kalshi attempted to bribe Governor Kathy Hokel by offering 10 billion in tax revenue over five years. The governor responded on X-The Everything app, quote, Cal She can promise 100% of his revenue. You can't buy yourself an exemption from New York law. If an illegal bookie offers the state a share of their profits,

Starting point is 00:18:21 will still shut them down, unquote. In response to a lawsuit from Trump accusing Capital One of unlawfully closing his bank accounts for political reasons, a Capital One is revealed in court filings that the Trump Organization bank accounts were closed in 2021 for quote-unquote anti-money laundering reasons. Following, quote, months of analysis and careful review by the bank's money laundering team. A few months prior to the closure of Trump's accounts, Capital One had to pay a $390 million penalty to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network

Starting point is 00:18:55 for not enforcing an effective anti-money laundering program. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch's Senate confirmation hearing, is coming up, but last week, President Trump said he would keep Blanche on as acting attorney general if Blanche doesn't get confirmed and just try to nominate him again after the midterms. The U.S. attorney has dropped charges against three people who were accused of damaging the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The motion to dismiss the felony charge against the former Olympic athlete claims that it wasn't until after he was indicted. that the Department of Interior gave evidence over to prosecutors that, quote,

Starting point is 00:19:38 damaged the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in July 26, was the result of flawed installation by the contractor and the rush to complete the project prior to events associated with America 250 celebration in the weeks surrounding Independence Day, 2026. The motion also states, quote, is difficult to attribute the widespread damage to the reflecting pool to vandalism, unquote. Of course, Trump was not too happy about this, turning to truth social to say, I disagree 100% with the Chenine Piro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia on the reflecting pool. I don't know what she was thinking.

Starting point is 00:20:18 To me, it was a pure case of vandalism, in all caps. That includes the grass, which had a big 8647 emblazoned in giant letters on it. Oh, my God. And many other elements of the surrounding area. Oh, God. Oh, God. Oh, God. There may have been some contractor difficulty, but the major damage was caused by vandals, President D.J.T. The president later said that Piro, quote, unquote, folded like an umbrella, and quote, frankly, I think she choked because the judge was really vicious, unquote. There was some speculation that he might fire the U.S. attorney that has not happened as of yet, but who knows?

Starting point is 00:21:02 You know, it's the Trump administration. Things could have changed by the time we finish recording this. Yeah. There's like a 30% chance things will have changed by the time we finish recording this. Obviously, it's good that these charges were dropped. I was very clear that the damage to the reflecting pool was not done by Vandals. No, and that fucking late middle-aged former Olympian bending briefly down to touch the water did not cause a 150 foot cut in the fucking... In the center of the pool.

Starting point is 00:21:31 Absolutely not. God. Ohio house rep Max Miller, who is accused of abuse and breaking his two-year-old daughter's collarbone, which we covered last week, posted a video this week addressing the allegations made by his ex-wife, saying, quote, if I had assaulted her, would she have offered to cook me dinner six days later? Unquote. The next day, Trump was questioned about Miller and said this. It's a very sad thing. I know Max. He's a good person. It's a good person. person. I mean, I always thought he was a very good person. And I'm going to let the families figure that out. You know, those families, I know they're working on it. It's a very sad thing, especially when you know somebody so well to be going through that when it's accusations.

Starting point is 00:22:19 And I'm going to let them figure that out. On Tuesday, it was announced the House Ethics Committee would open an investigation after Miller himself requested a probe into the allegations. Let's go to an ad break and then return to talk about the primary elections in Michigan and Missouri. Yeah. Eating well shouldn't be complicated, but somehow it turns into recipes, prep, cleanup, and half your Sunday gone. Factor solves all that. These are fresh, ready-to-eat meals designed by dietitians, delivered to your door, and ready in just minutes. No prep, no cleanup, no excuses.

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Starting point is 00:23:32 Go to factormeals.ca and use code power. That's 11 free meals and free shipping, but only with the code power at factormeals. Factor, Canada's number one ready-to-eat meal delivery service. Canadian women are looking for more. More to themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast. I'm Jennifer Stewart. And I'm Catherine Clark.

Starting point is 00:23:58 And in this podcast, we interview Canada's most inspiring women. entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their journey. So if you're looking to connect, then we hope you'll join us. Listen to the Honest Talk podcast on IHeart Radio or wherever you listen to your podcasts. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up y'all? It's your girl, Sam J. And we're the host of Everyone Watches Women's Sports,

Starting point is 00:24:24 a new podcast from Together and IHeart Women's Sports. Because let's be real. Women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days. So Kelsey Finler, she became the first female solo rower to go from California to Hawaii. My first thought is like, what's up with the snacks? Like, what are we eating? The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments that take over your entire timeline. And the conversations that start during the game and somehow keep going all week.

Starting point is 00:24:50 Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women sports. Naomi Osaka showing out, she beat Sabalinka. Shout out to you, Naomi. You get the palm, Naomi. You get the calm for that. Because we're not just interested in what happened. We're interested in why everyone's talking about it. Because everyone watches women's sports.

Starting point is 00:25:08 Listen to everyone watches women's sports. On the IHeart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. You know us, or rather you know them. Tony and Candace, Nina and Lance, Spike, and yes, the chicken. We've played a lot of iconic characters over the years,

Starting point is 00:25:28 but today we're showing up as ourselves to tell you about Podlandia, Ayo Rewatch, our brand new podcast. Each week, we'll revisit an episode of Portlandia from the very beginning, breaking down the sketches, exploring the backstories of our most iconic characters, revisiting the Portland locations you know and love, and opening up about our creative process. How did any of this get made? Why do we think that was a good idea?

Starting point is 00:25:51 We're ready to talk about it. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Chrysler, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song, a melody. I thought he was going to write.

Starting point is 00:26:11 I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia. Ayo, rewatch on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, we are back. This past Tuesday, left-wing populist candidate Abdul El-Said beat corporate-backed and APAC-backed candidate, Haley Stevens, in the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan. In the week prior to the election, polling and showed El-Said pulling way ahead by double digits.

Starting point is 00:26:50 But come election night, he won by just one point, 48.5 percent to Stevens, 47.5 percent. Very close race. Great. The more traditional progressive candidate, Mallory McMorrow, who suspended her campaign months ago, got 4% of the vote, over 60,000 votes. El-Said ended up winning by just 15,000 votes. But the fact that Tuesday wasn't a total blowout for El-Said should not take away from the magnitude of this victory. Haley Stevens had nearly $70 million of outside spending, helping her in this race, about half of which came from A-PAC. El-Ead was outspent 11 to 1. For the past month, pro-steen Stevens' ads have completely dominated the airwaves. Jesus, I didn't know it was that big a discrepancy in funding.

Starting point is 00:27:42 That's crazy. It's brutal. This is the most expensive Democratic Senate primary in history. A-PAC and Dark Money really rallied for Stevens, especially in this past month. Whoops. Some of those ads and mailers, just completely blanketing Michigan, falsely implied that Stevens was endorsed by Barack Obama, which some voters cited as their reason for supporting Stephen. other ads tried to smear Abdul as a sexist podcast bro for comments critical of Michelle Obama and

Starting point is 00:28:15 Gretchen Whitmer's politics. Stevens received the endorsement of Michigan's sitting governor, Gretchen Whitmer, as well as multiple democratic establishment figures, Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, as well as the Michigan Democratic Party, black and Jewish caucuses. Israel and Palestine became a central issue in this race. In the last two debates, Abdul hit Stevens again and again, over APAC and corporate funding. In the final debate, even the moderator questioned Stevens on whether her APAC funding would influence how she votes in Congress. Also in that last debate, Stevens lied on stage

Starting point is 00:28:49 about taking money from utility companies. In an interview just a week before the election, Stevens addressed the attacks over dark money funding. Quote, It seems like we got the campaign finance Zumi's. Jesus Christ. We've got to be really honest here. Who's benefiting from this level of infighting?

Starting point is 00:29:09 It's the Republicans who've already have all their dark money all lined up and ready to go. Unquote. Let's take a listen to what those campaign finance Zumi's can buy you in the Senate. Israel comes to me in my dreams. I see Israel's future and I know that Israel will continue to exist

Starting point is 00:29:29 for the Jewish people. Just the Zumis. It's fine, everyone. It's the Zumis. God. And Jesus Christ. I will not stop playing that clip because it's one of the craziest things to have a then-sitting congressperson say. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:29:47 Now, Haley Stevens tried to attack Abdul for having a super pack of his own, primarily funded by his father-in-law, who did donate $300,000 to the pack, which was the highest individual contribution. You know, $300,000 from his father-in-law versus $70 million of a lot. outside spending. Jesus Christ. Not a very compelling argument, but that was one of the main things that Stevens tried to hit Abdul on during the last two debates when he brought up the massive amount of APAC spending backing her campaign. Abdul has worked in public health since 2015, and for Senate, he ran on Medicare for

Starting point is 00:30:24 all and abolishing medical debt, which he did for 300,000 residents of Wayne County in 2024 as director of the county health department. His platform also includes repealing Medicaid cuts from Trump's quote-unquote beautiful bill, codifying reproductive rights and protecting gender affirming care. His quote-unquote money out-of-politics plank includes getting rid of Citizens United to stop dark money packs, ending partisan gerrymandering, supporting Supreme Court reform, getting rid of the filibuster, abolishing ICE, and that, quote, ICE funds should be repurposed to build out the legal infrastructure of courts to create a clear pathway to citizenship for those who are stuck in limbo.

Starting point is 00:31:02 in our current system, unquote. Abdul supports Ukraine and opposes, quote, the illegal and unjustifiable war in Iran. He also opposes, quote, direct blank check funding to foreign militaries, including Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others, unquote. And he supports an immediate arms embargo on Israel and rejects, quote, the false differentiation between offensive and defensive weapons, unquote, which is a reference to the Iron Dome. His money-in-your-pocket platform includes an anti-monopoly FTC,

Starting point is 00:31:38 trade agreements negotiated with unions, restoring funding to the NIH, opposing private school vouchers, tying increases in the defense budget to an equal increase in education funding, taxing capital gains over a million dollars at the same rate as ordinary income, closing loopholes used by the ultra-wealthy raising the marginal tax rate on earnings over $1 million, and a billionaire tax. He also supports a cost of living in exempt. on federal taxes up to $50,000 and closing the Social Security payroll tax cap. For housing, his platform aims to streamline local regulations to make it easier to build,

Starting point is 00:32:14 while banning large corporations that speculate on housing stock from owning homes and supporting legislation to ban algorithmic rental price-fixing software. El-Said supports regulating AI companies, creating an independent technical agency with real enforcement power for AI, which he cited. the FDA is an example, but having basically an FDA-type organization to regulate and handle AI. He also is in support of federal zoning guidelines and legislation to protect communities from the consequences of data centers. In a primary debate, El-Said said that data center projects must meet the following terms. Quote, all union labor, no raising our utility rates, increasing our utility

Starting point is 00:32:56 reliability, not touching our water, and there's got to be a community benefits agreement that's negotiated in good faith with all the money put into escrow, unquote. El-Said is not a DSA candidate. He does not call himself a socialist, but he was endorsed by Bernie Sanders, AOC, and campaigned with Hassan Piker. He's also been backed by the UAW, National Nurses United, the Working Families Party, Jewish Voice for Peace, and if not now. A few days before the primary, but after polling indicated that Abdul would likely be the nominee, incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rogers released an AI-generated ad

Starting point is 00:33:35 depicting Abdul as a communist Trojan horse. Let's take a listen. They'll never see us coming. They really think we're just Democrats. God. Jesus Christ. Every AI ad, I hear Jeff Goldblum's fucking voice say you were so obsessed with whether or not you could,

Starting point is 00:33:58 you didn't stop to think, you know, should we? Is this a good idea? Is this ad going to work? So basically this ad has a Trojan horse rolling into Michigan with a large banner reading definitely not communism. Inside the horse, Abdul is dressed as Odysseus from the Nolan movie, along with Bernie Sanders, AOC, and So on Mamdani. Text at the end reads, Don't let communism into Michigan. Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate. I think Mike Rogers should keep releasing ads just like this. Nothing else. I wanted him just to keep releasing these ads.

Starting point is 00:34:34 I think that'll be great. Yeah. Rogers did release a statement after Abdul's victory. Quote, I spent years hunting terrorists and bringing Osama bin Laden to justice. Never in a million years did I think that I would be running against someone who believes America deserved 9-11, unquote. Abdul has never said that, obviously. And I also think that this is a example.

Starting point is 00:34:58 of just the sheer level of racism that has defined this campaign. And we also saw versions of this with Mamdani, but like just the unhinged amount of Islamophobia that has been leveled against Said is really, really disturbing. And it's going to get worse. Yeah, it's going to get so much worse. Yeah. But it's also like, this is an example of Islamophobia from the Republicans,

Starting point is 00:35:21 for the Democrats, have been doing it too. And it's, yeah, extremely bleak the extent to which this is just a thing you can do running a political campaign. Yeah. It's interesting because it isn't entirely, at least lately, to their benefit either. Like, it recently really screwed them over in another Michigan race, right? Like Michigan's eighth district, the Republican primary between Thomas J. Smith, Amir Hassan, and Al-Limmo. Thomas Smith took ahead, even though he had, like, suspended his campaign previously, like more than a month ago. Amir Hassan had been endorsed by Trump and is not a Muslim, but has a name that kind of sounds like he would be, like, to erase. And so, like, at least that's the suspicion as to why Hassan did not do better against someone who was not actively running. Yeah, was not campaign. A lot of anger on truth social by MAGA people who thought that Trump had endorsed a Muslim. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:36:15 Yeah, it's just, I mean, like the level of bigotry is off the chart. It's interesting that it doesn't seem to, or at least in this case, it torpedoed a Republican but not a Democrat, which I do think is kind of fun. but yeah, the overall trend is very much not fun. On a similar sort of note, last week, the Michigan State AG Dana Nessel announced at an ADL, quote-unquote, anti-Semitism roundtable

Starting point is 00:36:41 that she would not be attending the Michigan nominating convention for their Democratic nominee over fears of being booed for working with Trump and Cash Patel's FBI to indict pro-Palestine student protesters in June. I'm not going to be attending the non-leading convention for the Michigan Democratic Party in August and that is because I don't feel safe going. I feel like

Starting point is 00:37:08 my presence is not going to be welcomed. I don't want to get chased around, I don't want to get harassed, I don't want to get yelled and scream at, and I don't want to get food off the stage irrespective of what I'm saying and I believe that if I go that is what will happen because it's been happening to me. Dad fucked. Fuck you. Which good, like you are, by definition, a collaborator for having participated in this. That is like the absolute bare minimum of accountability that you should be facing is that you should be booed every single place you go to.

Starting point is 00:37:44 Her office has tried for years to go after pro-Palestine protesters and has been forced to drop charges because her office was specifically discriminatory. and she only got her way via teaming up with the Trump admin and Cache Patel's FBI to go after student protesters. This is something she's been trying to do for literal years and has been unable to because her office is too racist. Yeah. And again, also, like, student protesters were horribly brutalized by the police repeatedly, as I think most people who listen to this remember to some extent. But yeah. Also in Michigan, DSA endorsed Rashida Talib handily won her re-election in the District 12 primary with 74% of the vote. Also, in Michigan, left-wing populist and co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, William Lawrence, won the Democratic

Starting point is 00:38:36 primary for House District 7 with about 56,000 votes. Two more kind of moderate candidates, each got 35,000 votes. So there is a sort of moderate split here. Lawrence will now be facing the Republican incumbent Tom Barrett, who won by just four points in 2024. There's 226,000 votes to 209,000 votes. So this could end up being a close race. It really depends on voter turnout. Lawrence is a member of DSA, but is not DSA endorsed, though he does have the endorsement of Sanders, El-Said, Rashida Talib, Rochana, the Nurses Union, Working Families Party, and Trache. A-PAC. Quick update here, Lawrence went on CNN Wednesday night to clarify that while he used to be a member of DSA, he let his membership lapse last month.

Starting point is 00:39:31 In the weeks before the election, Lawrence was attacked by the Democratic establishment and the Congressional Black Caucus for being quote-unquote racist because of a quote from a podcast conversation on Black liberation and black anti-war activism with an activist named Huri Peterson Smith. I'll read the full quote. here that was clipped and spread around mainly by Huff Post. Quote, the extent to which the older generation of black political leadership are such a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power, through their role as this kind of traditionalist-establishmentist pillar of the Democratic Party, it's a big problem. It's a big problem for left politics in this country, and it gets us every single time. It really defangs the white left and puts us in impossible positions, really, unquote. William Lawrence told Huff Post, quote, I have tremendous respect for black community leaders who have been at the forefront of the fight for freedom for centuries. This was in the context of a wide-ranging conversation with a guest on the show about racial dynamics in progressive politics. I regret how this specific point was expressed, unquote. And yes, absolutely. There is no reason to say the white left there specifically. This harms the entire left. There's really no reason to say that.

Starting point is 00:40:49 This is part of a larger conversation in this podcast he was having about racial dynamics in, like, left-wing spaces, but I think that is a bad thing to say. Lawrence added to his statement online, quote, The way I made this point was clumsy, and I regret my choice of words. I understand the potential impact when received out of context. The way the stories being reported does not reflect my beliefs. National elected leaders across race, ethnicity, age, and gender have been supporters of unnecessary U.S. wars.

Starting point is 00:41:18 This poses a challenge. to the anti-war movement. Americans of all races and ages must work together to advance peace until we do our resources will go to funding war and genocide abroad rather than investing in affordable housing and health care or closing the racial wealth gap." DSA candidate Donovan McKinney beat Democratic incumbent Sri Tanedar by almost 4%. About 4,000 votes in House District 13, another close race. It was looking like Sri might pull ahead earlier in the night, but Donovan did end up winning, and will now likely become another DSA congressman. Tanadar was backed by APEC, Hakeem Jeffreys, the Congressional Progressive Caucus,

Starting point is 00:42:02 and the center-left New Democrat Coalition. But it's not all wins in Michigan. Kyle Blomquist, another DSA candidate for Congress in Michigan House District 1, lost to moderate Kaley Barr, who will now face the Republican incumbent in the general. And DSA endorsed Aisha Faruqi lost to pro-Israel Democrat Jeffrey Moss for Haley Stevens' house seat. So those are the two main losses for DSA last Tuesday, both U.S. House seats in Michigan. Though I think it is interesting to note that Detroit is now the only major city in the country to be fully represented in the U.S. House by D.S. House. DSA candidates.

Starting point is 00:42:48 And two DSA candidates for the Michigan State House also won their primaries. In Missouri, Corey Bush lost her comeback bid to incumbent Wesley Bell, who was backed by APEC and was also really, really outspent. And the Kansas City DSA endorsed candidate Herzl Gray lost his primary for House District 4 by just under 2,000 votes. Very close race. So lots of wins, some losses, but even just El-Said winning is probably the biggest blow to A-PAC that we've seen yet. Like I said, this is the most expensive Democratic Senate primary in history in a state with open primaries where tens of millions of dollars in ad spending can go really far in rural areas and with older low-info voters. A left-wing Muslim candidate overcoming both A-PAC and the Democratic establishment in a swing state is a massive victory. I have one final little election update for the gubernatorial race in Ohio.

Starting point is 00:43:53 Oh, God. Because in late July, Republican nominee for governor, Vivek Ramoswamy, spoke or tried to speak at the Young Americans for Liberty National Convention, an annual Ron Paul-esque convention for young libertarian conservatives at Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio. Ramaswami's speaking block was for 30 minutes. He lasted 14 before being booed offstage. Let's take a lesson. The truth of the matter is, you know, no matter what happens in whichever direction we go,

Starting point is 00:44:25 people my generation have already made it, we're going to be fine. It's going to be your generation. You're a political greet and you need to give the office out of anywhere. Seems like it's going great. So there are two cuts in that clip, but all that audio is from the last like two minutes. of his speech, Romo Swami was also booed as he first went on to stage. Great sign. Great sign. And throughout the 14 minutes, he was heckled over Israel, H-1B visas, data centers, energy prices,

Starting point is 00:45:02 and his comments about how the socialist government sees your home as a wealth asset, to which people in the crowd responded, we can't afford a home. Great. Also, isn't the whole premise of our economy that your home is like a wealth asset, right? Like, no, that's socialism, Robert. Doesn't everyone who owns a home see their home that way? Isn't that like how all of the U.S. economy is predicated on? I cannot emphasize this enough.

Starting point is 00:45:28 Literally this distinction between your house as a wealth asset and your house and you living in it, this is chapter one of capital? Yeah, that's a wild statement. Literally, well, exactly, that is communism. Yeah. That is, I think that that is exactly Ramoswami's point. Throughout this 14-minute speech, he tried to, he tried to say that like the true divide in this country isn't isn't Democrats versus Republicans,

Starting point is 00:45:53 but winners versus whiners. So why would you be a whiner and complain about all these things when you could just win? And this actually mirrors one of Haley Stevens, kind of late campaign tactics to refer to people to her left as being part of the quote unquote complaining class. Any like DSA, any kind of socialist person is part of the complaining class. Anyone talking about, you know, A PAC, Israel, they're just complaining. It did not work out for Stevens, as we know. And this might not work out for Ramoswamy either. Last month, the Cook Political Report switched the Ohio

Starting point is 00:46:29 governmental race from Leans Republican to toss up. And the latest New York Times-Siena poll from late July has the race in a tie. All I have to add is that it's funny. Yeah. It is funny. And I picture him walking around the RNC like once a month. he looked like a sad little guy. Not that little. His hair was very tall.

Starting point is 00:46:54 His hair was very tall. His veneers were... Very bright. Veneering. In the presidential race, you know, me and Robert were talking about how much, you know, Ramasbam he was trying to go after the sort of like, like, Groyper type of young, young conservative, right? That was kind of what his, like, affect, that's a lot of stuff he was talking about

Starting point is 00:47:13 seemed to be rooted in. And at this, you know, young, conservative convention, he was like loudly rejected, right? This is the type of person that he's like trying the most to appeal to in some ways, or at least used to. This was also the case when he, when he was doing campaign events with Charlie Kirk, one of which I went to in Georgia before the presidential election. But he was definitely trying to go after this sort of like young male Republican and like get, make sure you mobilize them to the polls. Like that could be the thing that tips over the race. It's like getting like young Republican males. And at least for the

Starting point is 00:47:47 notorial race. His strategy of like, you know, it's up to you to fix everything actually. Millennials are going to be fine. Don't complain too much. Might not actually help mobilize young voters in support of his campaign. So we will see how that goes come, come November. Let's pivot to ads and then return for some prediction market and tariff news to great tastes that go great together. Eating well shouldn't be complicated, but somehow it turns into restaurants. Recipes, prep, cleanup, and half your Sunday gone. Factor solves all that. These are fresh, ready-to-eat meals designed by dieticians, delivered to your door, and ready in just minutes. No prep, no cleanup, no excuses. And it's not just about convenience. You're getting real food, balanced nutrition, and zero artificial stuff. Meals that help you stay on track for all of your goals without the grind of doing it all yourself. Grilled chicken, roasted veggies, steak plates, postables. They taste like something you get. in a restaurant, but they come out of your microwave in two minutes flat. If time

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Starting point is 00:49:14 power at factormeals.ca. Factor, Canada's number one ready-to-eat meal delivery service. Hey, I'm Ruby Carr, the host of the podcast, OnCore. out our brand new episodes featuring music from the show that everyone is reheating as we speak. Heated rivalry. Join me as I go behind the songs that brought Shane and Elia together.

Starting point is 00:49:35 I'll tell you the stories of Fice, My Moon, My Man, Wolf Parades, I'll Believe in Anything, and tattoos all the things she said, and how they all became a part of this global phenomenon. Stream encore on IHeart Radio, Crave, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up y'all? It's your girl, Sam J. And we're the host of everyone watches women's sports, a new podcast from Together and I Heart Women's Sports. Because let's be real. Women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days. So Kelsey Finler, she became the first female solo rower to go from California to Hawaii.

Starting point is 00:50:11 My first thought is, like, what's up with the snacks? Like, what are we eating? The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments that take over your entire timeline. And the conversations that start during the game and somehow, keep going all week. Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women's sports. Naomi Osaka, showing out, she beat Sabalinka. Shout out to you, Naomi. You get the palm, Naomi. You get the palm for that. Because we're not just interested in what happened. We're interested in why everyone's talking about it. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to everyone watches women's sports

Starting point is 00:50:44 on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brown's seen and Fred Armisen here. You know us or rather you know them, Tony and Candice, Nina and Lance, Spike, and yes, The Chicken. We've played a lot of iconic characters over the years, but today we're showing up as ourselves to tell you about Podlandia, AEO rewatch, our brand new podcast. Each week, we'll revisit an episode of Portlandia from the very beginning, breaking down the sketches, exploring the backstories of our most iconic characters, revisiting the Portland locations you know and love, and opening up about our creative process.

Starting point is 00:51:22 How did any of this get made? Why do we think that was a good idea? We're ready to talk about it. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guestrars, collaborators and friends, including director Jonathan Chryssel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Man, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song, a melody. Well, I thought he was going to write.

Starting point is 00:51:45 I thought you were going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia. Ayo, rewatch on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. So I wanted to talk a little bit more about the munitions crisis. I've reported several times on the growing munitions crisis that the U.S. military faces,

Starting point is 00:52:14 not just but largely as a result of our war of choice with Iran. Advanced munitions, though, like 155 millimeter artillery rounds, have been stretched past the point of sustainability for years now since the expansion of Russia's war with Ukraine. And so defense officials have spent much of the last four years, scrambling to increase production of a number of different rounds. And there were a bunch of articles in like the spring, early summer of 2025 about how they'd finally met their goal of quadrupling production of 155mm rounds.

Starting point is 00:52:44 And a major part of this was the construction and opening in mid-toot 2025-millimeter of a fully operated 155-millimeter artillery shell factory in Mesquite, Texas. The factory is named Union Technologies. So that's all what the administration reported last year, right? I want to quote now from an article of the Global Tactical Analysis Center put out in February of 2026. The U.S. military is facing a significant crisis as production of 155-millimeter artillery rounds at the Mesquite factory has severely lagged. This shortfall raises alarms not only for domestic military readiness, but also for ongoing foreign military sales that depend on timely delivery of munitions. Army acquisition Tsar Brin Ingram expressed explicit dissatisfaction with the facility's performance during a recent congressional hearings,

Starting point is 00:53:25 indicating that immediate investments are necessary to correct course and avoid further delays. The logistical and technical challenges at the Mesquite factory may involve outdated machinery or insufficient workforce levels to meet production quotas. Current estimates suggest a 25% lag in output compared to contractual obligations. And that sounds bad in and of itself. That's not accurate. The lag is a lot more than 25%. Oh, boy.

Starting point is 00:53:50 Yeah, yeah. The DoD Office of the Inspector General went out to look into what's going on with this plant and why isn't shell production up to where the administration said it would be? They spent several months investigating and put together a report that was published in mid-July of 26. Here's a summary from TWZ.com. Despite receiving close to $500 million from the U.S. Army funded through supplemental spending bills from fiscal years 2022 and 2023, General Dynamics, Ordinance, and Tactical Systems

Starting point is 00:54:16 failed to make a single subcomponent needed to produce the badly needed shells as of last March. Without the 30,000 additional projectile metal parts anticipated from the Skiate facility, the Army will be unable to reach its monthly capacity goal of 100,000, 155 millimeter artillery rounds, the report concluded. As of March 26, officials have not developed a plan to produce the additional rounds that are supposed to be produced at the Mesquite factory. So this means that the U.S. is producing somewhere between like a third and a half of the goal the Trump administration claimed they'd already reached. That's a little hard for me to tell. I've heard as low as like 36,000 and as high as like 70,000 shells a month that we're making, both of which are shorter

Starting point is 00:54:52 than what we're supposed to be. And for an idea of how much of a problem this is, Ukraine, when things are at a fever pitch, can fire up to 8,000 shells per day, which means they're shooting enough over there to account for a year of U.S. shell production in two weeks. And as a result of this discrepancy, the U.S. has seen its stockpile of 155mm shells

Starting point is 00:55:10 reduced by 3.6 million rounds over the last several years. Jesus. So I was curious as to what had gone so wrong that these fuckers haven't been able to make a single solitary component, not fucking one. And it turns out this happened because the whole plot to have this mesquite factory, you know, close the gap in production, was based on a hope and a prayer, specifically a hope that the very old machines in the factory would be able to produce modern quality weapons.

Starting point is 00:55:38 The IG's report called this a high-risk production line, which is not the kind of production line you want for artillery shells. Per an article in task and purpose, rather than build new machines for the mesquite plant, the IG said, the Army allowed general dynamics to convert machines used for M107 shells, an older 155 millimeter round that the M795, which we use now, replaced. The M795 can fire about six kilometers further than the M107, carrying a far more powerful explosive charge. But the decision to try it, the untested production program, the IG said, proved fateful.

Starting point is 00:56:09 Army officials believe the Mesquite facility was a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, the IG said. The service accepted risk associated with the contractor's plan to purchase and adapt M-107 metal part production equipment. But the new production lines were never able to produce acceptable M795 parts using the reworked equipment. And the Army ordered the plant to stop work completely and stop spending money in August 2025, just months after the Trump administration claimed we were up to 100,000 shells a month, and that orders held through at least April of 26.

Starting point is 00:56:38 So we have no idea what's going to happen ultimately to this mesquite factory. But I should note here that our munitions woes go even deeper than a lack of howitzer fuel. Earlier this year, Reuters reporters Aaron Bonko, Mike Stone, and Jonathan Landley published an exclusive article titled, U.S. has used virtually all of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say. Citing three people familiar with the data, the article claims that the U.S. has used virtually all of our Army tactical missile systems and precision strike missiles. The Army tactical missile systems are like the older missiles we were using. The precision strike missiles are the new ones. These are our main surface-to-surface weapons.

Starting point is 00:57:16 And it gets worse to continue with another quote. from that Reuters piece. Military leaders have for weeks warned the president that stockpiles of defensive weapons, including Patriot Interceptors, which are effective against ballistic missiles, were dwindling, said two of the sources. Last week, several media outlets reported Trump had decided not to launch another massive offensive inside Iran, in part because his military advisors had warned about the U.S. stockpile. A U.S. official disputed those accounts,

Starting point is 00:57:39 thanks Trump's chose not to move forward with another attack because of pressure from Gulf states. Now, based on the most up-to-date info, we have at least 65 percent of our pay. Patriot Interceptors have been used since February. And THAAD stockpiles are down by at least 38%. We've also used about half, if not more than half of our Tomahawk stockpile. None of these weapons can be replaced at rates that are even close to the rate we are burning them. And these are also the weapons systems that we would rely on most in the event of a conflict

Starting point is 00:58:07 with Russia, China, or any other major power. Which is why so many people in the defense industry are freaking out to the degree that Trump has had to pull back on some of his plans. Because they are telling him, hey, man, if we get into some serious. a shit and not this fuckery you're doing in the Gulf, we're screwed. Yeah. We can't make more of these. So anyway, the reason I keep beating the drum on, like, the ammo shortage is because

Starting point is 00:58:30 I'm certain that in history of books in the future, there are going to be pages written about this before whatever fucking disaster comes our way next. So that's cool. Keep your eye on that. The other thing you should keep your eye on is that we have now added a new kind of gambling market, to our gambling on things that are not traditional gambling industry, which is, I guess, the only growth industry in the country, aside from data centers, there's now a bunch of different services that are letting people gamble specifically on wildfires and where they hit and how much

Starting point is 00:59:00 damage they do. Oh, Jesus. Yeah, yeah, and I want to quote from an article in Oregon Live. As Oregon surpassed its wildfire acreage record over the weekend, with more than two million acres burnt, Oregon lawmakers also raised a new wildfire concern Monday as prediction markets continue to allow people to place bets on wildfires, saying it could lead to more human-caused fires. In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets,

Starting point is 00:59:23 Senator Jeff Merkley led lawmakers from other wildfire-stricken states and Senator Ron Wyden in urging the agency to crack down on wildfire-related contracts. The group warned that the markets could create financial incentives for arson. And that's the big deal, is that, like, if you're letting people gamble on this shit, yeah, firefighters might be incentivized to fuck with stuff. regular people could be incentivized to fuck with stuff. We've seen this happen already. Like, I reported a couple months ago about that Israeli journalist who, like, posted a video of a missile failing to get intercepted and, like, hitting into some trees.

Starting point is 00:59:56 And he started getting death threats because people were gambling on, like, how, whether or not it would be intercepted and his reporting was inconvenient to them. Shit's going to be happening like that with fires. In addition to people trying to start them, if this is allowed to go, right? Polymarket lets people bet on not just wildfires, but a variety. of natural disasters. People can choose yes or no as to whether or not they think a category five hurricane is going to hit the United States or like a volcano is going to erupt. It's just a really bleak thing.

Starting point is 01:00:24 And there's one of the things that I read recently is there's even a new markets focus specifically on gambling on California wildfires called Wildfire, W-Y-L-D-F-Y-R-E. The company tagline is, you can't predict wildfire, but you can trade on it. And I want to quote from high country news and an investigation of this company. Currently, wildfire users can only simulate trading, but according to the site, the ability to bet with real money is coming soon. Oh, gosh. The platform purports to be the first prediction market of its kind, pricing county and city

Starting point is 01:00:56 wildfire risk in real time. California burns every year, and it's getting worse. The question is an if, it's when and where, the site reads. Wildfire frames its platform as providing a public good. Wildfire turns collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting, one trade at a time, site reads. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, my God.

Starting point is 01:01:14 But entities with a real need for wildfire forecasting, including federal and state firefighting agencies, say they aren't interested in prediction market data. The Forest Service does not use information from prediction markets for wildfire forecasts. Why? I don't even need to go. It's useless. It's useless. And everyone's saying this is an idiot and a liar.

Starting point is 01:01:29 It's insane. This whole thing, it's like, we can chart like the world's collective knowledge because money. People are fucking morons. Money is, you know, speaks, speaks more truthfully than just words. It's just complete, complete nonsense. No, people are going to burn down their own neighborhoods to get rich. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:01:46 I mean, if you look at how much prediction markets have been wrong about a sequence of, like, high profile elections just in the past year, shows that this is not useful or reliable data. There is no hidden truth that prediction markets can find through the quote unquote wisdom of crowds. And like this specific thing on these wildfires is like a two-pronged issue. One, kind of evil, right, to just, you know, win money based on this. deaths of however many people in natural disasters. The destruction of their lives, everything they've built, the fear. Yeah. So like, you know, like death markets is like one, one aspect.

Starting point is 01:02:21 The other, you know, aspect is if someone has a lot of money riding on a certain wildfire hitting a certain location, then yeah, there is financial incentive to maybe cause a fire to hit a certain location. Or try to pay someone else to, yeah. There's like that aspect as well. It's evil for so many reasons. obviously should be illegal. Like, it's insane.

Starting point is 01:02:42 Lee should be hanging these people. I mean, I remember when arguing over whether the market is an information processor that, like, as you're saying, like, has like all of this collective intelligence from market signals that it's like the most efficient information processor versus arguing that it's a gambling den. Like, that used to be an academic debate.

Starting point is 01:03:03 And now it's just like, oh, no, we're doing this on fires. And it's just, God. Everything that was once metaphor is now literal and all of the metaphors suck. Yeah, this is pretty fucked up. I know this was a concern that was talked about with like the LA fires last year or two years ago. Because I know there was Polymarket or a Kalshi betting on those. And that created like a little mini news cycle of like talking about this maybe being a problem. But like the scale in which this is like accelerated is crazy.

Starting point is 01:03:32 Again, I used to do like sports gambling ads because I don't have a problem with gambling like ethically. Same way I don't have a problem with liquor and whatnot. And then it just became very clear before too much. Oh, wait, no, this isn't your father's gambling. This isn't going to fucking, like, things are well beyond heading to Vegas for like a weekend or playing cards online with your friends. This is turned into like everything. Like this is the omniculture. It's almost the only recreational activity a lot of Americans have anymore.

Starting point is 01:04:02 Yeah. I'm going to be honest, I didn't see that happening. That took me by surprise. No, I used to have a lot more kind of libertarian-y views on gambling. Sure. And now I am firmly in favor of like harsh state intervention. Yeah. Into basically all forms of digital gambling.

Starting point is 01:04:18 Yeah, I think you should be able to go to a casino and gamble, but I don't think you should be able to do it on your phone. Like I've turned around on that. No. Yeah. And you know, you can look at those. There's a whole bunch of data on like when sports gambling is legalized in a state. Like the bankruptcy rate increases.

Starting point is 01:04:35 It's a catastrophe. Yeah. You know, I mean, it's already devoured sports and it's now just devouring everything that's left of our society until something changes. Literally everything else. Yeah, it's like. What if you copy that model for literally any event happening in the world? Anyway. Well, at least the economy at large is doing fine, right?

Starting point is 01:04:53 Me? Oh, oh, boy. Yeah, so let's check in with our dear friend. And by dear friend, I mean, I don't know if he's an enemy of the show yet, but. recurring character on the show. Yeah, recurring character on the show, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who had a press conference to address the fact

Starting point is 01:05:17 that in the face of rising inflation, everyone was expecting there to be some kind of interest rate increase and he didn't do one. Well, I mean, the Federal Reserve Board didn't vote for one. And he had a press conference that was so disastrous, it triggered a giant sell-off of U.S. bonds.

Starting point is 01:05:36 which is not good. I'm going to read this piece from John Cassidy, who wrote an article in The New Yorker about it because I think it captures the reactions to this. Quote, the sell-off, quote, looks very much like a loss of confidence trade, one market analyst told the Financial Times.

Starting point is 01:05:54 Another commenter, Dario Perkins, an economist at the research from T.S. Lombard, compared Warsh's press conference to Donald Trump's announcement last year of his Liberation Day tariffs and to the disastrous UK MIDI budget that costs trust her job as prime minister in 2022, describing them all as occasions, quote, where you suddenly realize global policymakers are totally out of their depth and don't know what they're doing?

Starting point is 01:06:21 Even some ex-Fed officials who tend to be more regarded in their public comments and voice concerns. In an interview with Bloomberg, James Bullard, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, described Warsh's press conference as, quote, a little bit rocky and the bond market's reaction as, quote, nerve-wracking for essential banker? I don't know. It sounds fine to me.

Starting point is 01:06:43 Now, a little bit rocky might seem a little timid to you, but for these people, that's like an insane thing to say. Yeah, for a Federal Reserve banker, that is the equivalent of just nine alarm fire. I'm going to read this one last part of it.

Starting point is 01:07:00 Loretta Mester, who headed the Cleveland Fed from 2014 to 24 told the Wall Street Journal, quote, I want to feel comfortable, but the Fed knows what it is doing. I don't think it's sustainable what he's doing in terms of not saying anything. So,

Starting point is 01:07:17 this press conference went so badly that the current analysis, from basically the day this happened until now, the analysis has been that actually know the Fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates just to make the markets take, like, warsh as as a guy running the central bank seriously?

Starting point is 01:07:34 Oh, God. Economist at Bank of America labeled this a, quote, central bank inflation credibility shock, a term I have never seen before. So, okay, what did Warsh actually say in this press conference that was this bad? Well, here's Jackson Maugh at Fortune, quote, he has vowed, quote, regime change and quote, at the Fed by rolling back so-called forward guidance on where rates are headed and offered no such clues on Wednesday, even talking around

Starting point is 01:08:10 no-brainer questions on how to bring down inflation. So what does that actually mean? The Fed usually gives markets some indication of what they're going to do with interest rates at our next meeting to set interest rates. And you do this because you want to give people in the market an opportunity to plan around what the Fed is probably going to be doing. Warsh thinks this is a bad idea. That is very weird. I don't think anyone has agreed with him that not talking to like the markets about what you're about what the Fed is going to do. I don't think anyone has agreed with him since at least like the 80s that that the Fed should just make his decisions in secret and not tell anyone. But that's not even the weirdest part of this. The weirdest part is that he's not just refusing to explain what the Fed is going to do in the future. He is refusing to explain what the Fed is doing right now. And that is really, really weird. People are just asked him point blank like hey why did you not raise interest rates and she just would not give an answer and that is the thing that has been making it seem like she has no idea what's going on now it's possible that this is pure incompetence i think that's probably part of it like it being

Starting point is 01:09:23 incompetence is kind of bolstered by the fed's next move which was to do basically a i don't know if bailouts quite the right term but basically to pump a bunch of money in into the yen to increase and maintain the value of Japan, or to increase and maintain the value of Japan's currency. Now, this is also a kind of cataclysmic thing. The U.S. hasn't done this for Japan since, I think literally it was the reverse Plaza Accords in the late 1980s as a way to like stave off the just complete ruin of the Asian markets during the Asian market collapse. So this in and of itself is remarkable. The U.S. hasn't done this since almost every economy in Southeast Asia was imploding during the end of the 90s. But the weirdest part is that

Starting point is 01:10:07 instead of doing this by just selling dollars, right, he did it by selling euros, which is baffling. I have no idea why he did it. No one I've read seems to have any idea why he did this with euros instead of dollars. Everyone is just extremely confused. So it's actually very funny because the thing I'm about to talk about next was brought up as the most important thing the Fed had done in his tenure, and then this happened a few days later. So everyone is just completely baffled by what he's doing. None of it makes any sense. And it's not only doesn't make any sense,

Starting point is 01:10:40 it's actively undermining itself because a lot of the things that he's doing, you know, this yen purchase is supposed to be about restoring confidence in the Japanese markets, but then the U.S. is doing some weird stuff and now everyone's going, what on earth is going on. The last thing I want to talk about with the Fed specifically is, because I think I kind of understand what he's doing at least. at least with the interest rates and why he's not talking about it. In order to get to this, we need to return to some reporting from the New York Times,

Starting point is 01:11:09 which reports that Warsh is trying to reduce the number of meetings that the Fed has to decide interest rates. This is also really weird. The number of meetings to decide interest rates hasn't changed since the 80s. So, okay, why is he trying to eliminate these meetings? And when you put it all together, the reason why he doesn't want to. say what the Fed is going to do in the future and he wants to have less meetings, is that there is a Fed meeting in September right before the midterms. And if he raises interest rates, which is exactly the opposite of what Donald Trump wants right before the midterms, and this is one of John Cassidy's

Starting point is 01:11:47 interpretations, if he does this, he could get fired by Trump so he doesn't want to raise interest rates right before the midterms. So he's taking a stance of not saying anything to the media and then potentially even canceling this September meeting in order to not have to do this. So that's great. I think it's an argument as to whether the U.S. Federal Reserve is the single most important institution for all of global capitalism. I don't know if you can win the argument that it's the single most important one, but it's one of the most important institutions.

Starting point is 01:12:17 And it is apparently being run by a guy who is making economic decisions with the entire global economy based on him trying not to get fired. So this can only go great. One of the silliest things about that purchase of yen was the photos leaked from the meeting with the notepad being like, oh God. To do, colon, buy 10 billion U.S. dollars worth of yen. Remarkably similar to my shopping list the other day when I went to Albertson. That's what concerns me is I feel like you shouldn't be able to remember to buy 10 billion yen.

Starting point is 01:12:50 10 billion U.S. dollars worth of yen. Is there not a better method to make sure that happens in the U.S. government? I cannot emphasize this enough. The last time we did something like this with Japanese currency, it has an actual name. It's called the Reverse Plaza Accords. It was a transformational milestone moment in what the American economy was going to be, because that was the moment the U.S. abandoned having a manufacturing economy. Like, that's the kind of decision that is being made here, and it's being written on a

Starting point is 01:13:19 notepad. Like, it's just... Just throw that thing on a notepad. I'll do that later this afternoon. I admit, I thought Warsh, because Warsh had been. with the Federal Reserve Bank before, I thought he was going to be, like, slightly more competent than this,

Starting point is 01:13:33 but this entire week has raised, just raised what I think the odds are of the Federal Reserve, completely screwing things up and blowing up the entire global economy significantly, because if this is the kind of shit that you're doing, like a couple of months into being in office,

Starting point is 01:13:49 we are in for a long eight years, assuming I guess he doesn't, like, purged by Trump. Posting a picture of Jerome Powell, hurts like shit, just want him back. God. Finally, I want to conclude on some tariff talk. Song.

Starting point is 01:14:24 Sorry, we forgot to put the song in the last episode. They won't forgive you. My bad. Yeah, we're fixing it. We're fixing it. On Monday, half of the states in the union, that is 25 total states sued the Trump administration over the regime's tariff policies.

Starting point is 01:14:39 What is bleak here is that because of the... the speed that the courts move at and because of the speed that these attorney generals are moving at, these lawsuits are coming in an entire tariff cycle behind. Yeah. So these lawsuits are over the administration Section 301 tariffs, which were the forced labor, 10 to 12 percent tariffs on basically all U.S. imports that are supposed to be about forced labor. And as I mentioned before, this is an entire cycle of tariffs behind where the Trump administration actually is now, which is his even more illegal usage of Smoot-Hawley tariffs against Canada. We are still awaiting the lawsuit about that one

Starting point is 01:15:17 because they just haven't gotten there yet. So it's fun in real time to get to see the stuff I said last time I was talking about tariffs, about how Trump is just going to be able to keep using this tariff justification because it just takes time for stuff to get to the court where we're seeing that here. I mean, I guess the Section 301 tariffs don't have a deadline, but who knows how long it's going to take to get rid of those ones

Starting point is 01:15:38 or if you could see a scenario where those tariffs are irrelevant. As we saw with the tariffs that he imposed earlier this year that were nominally about like the U.S. having a balance of payments crisis where there were lawsuits about it, but the lawsuits don't matter because the authorization expired. We're probably going to see a similar thing like that where these tariffs are kind of irrelevant by the time this winds to the courts. So amazing political system we've set up here.

Starting point is 01:16:03 Well, that does it for us today at It Could Happen here. James sent over two donation links for the Spokane Wildfires. Both should be at the top of the episode sources in the description. The first one is Spokane Tribal Network.org. The second link is too long to fully read, but it's for the Spokane Complex Wildfire Response Fund. I can't read out the whole URL, but it should be at the top of the sources in the description.

Starting point is 01:16:33 We, the News reported. We reported the news. We reported the news. It Could Happen here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, poolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find sources where it could happen here listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.

Starting point is 01:17:10 Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. The Dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form. We're launching Podlandia, A.O. Rewatch. our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life.

Starting point is 01:17:31 Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Chryssel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song. Well, I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia, AEO rewatch on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea.

Starting point is 01:17:59 Every week, the news gets worse. The world gets crazier. And Yamanika is here to tell whoever's responsible, you're the problem. Do you know I just found out who Sidney Sweeney was? If he got a bunch of women, then I should have a bunch of men. Do better or do less, so I don't have to do so much. I'm Yamanika, and I'm out. Listen to You're the Problem with Yamanika on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Starting point is 01:18:27 I'm Nick Totoro. You probably know me from NYPD Blue, The Longest Yard, or Spike Lease Black Klansman. And on my new podcast, delivering happiness with Nick Totoro, I deliver pizza to a new guest. I've shared a slice with everyone from Seth Rollins. What are you doing my belt? To Bill Burr. I don't think I've ever met somebody so exactly out of their mind as I am. And now we even have more great guests.

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It Could Happen Here - Executive Disorder: Spokane Wildfires, Abdul Wins Michigan Primary, Munition Shortage

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