It Could Happen Here - How Trump's Tariffs Will Impact You

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

Mia and Gare discuss the effects of Trump's proposed tariffs and why they're probably going to be worse than economists are projecting. Book Link: https://chuangcn.org/journal/one/ Sources: https://chuangcn.org/2019/12/trade-war-or-redistribution https://chuangcn.org/journal/one/no-way-forward-no-way-back/ https://chuangcn.org/journal/two/picking-quarrels/ https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act https://chuangcn.org/2020/06/measuring-profitability/ https://chuangcn.org/2019/08/the-changing-geography-of-chinese-industry-data-brief/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/politics/china-trump-tariffs-taiwan/index.html https://yeutter-institute.unl.edu/who-has-authority-impose-tariffs-and-how-does-affect-international-trade https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-and-walmart-please-for-the-love-3729889/ https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-tariff-would-cost-the-typical-american-household-roughly-1500-each-year/ https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/ https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-macroeconomic-and-price-estimates-tariffs-under-both-non-retaliation-and-retaliation https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/11/07/donald-trump-is-poised-to-smash-mexico-with-tariffs https://www.vox.com/scotus/383884/supreme-court-donald-trump-tariffs-inflation-economySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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come again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to It Could Happen Here, a podcast that's about trade policy now. I'm your host, Mia Wong. This is amazingly going to be the fun one of all of these episodes. It's about tariffs, so it it's gonna be a long week yeah yeah with that that was the voice of the singular garrison davis the one the only yes hello i'm excited to hear about tariffs it's tariff talk here on it could happen here one of my favorite favorite topics i guess now all right garrison we're putting you on the spot what is a tariff uh it's basically googling tariffs no um a tariff is when trump says china's bad so he makes china pay extra money to sell their goods to americans and luckily china pays for all of it and the american consumer gets off with a boosting

economy that's at least what i've heard yeah so unfortunately for everyone i don't know i mean i guess i guess there's some accelerationists who are probably really excited about this most certainly the way this actually works is okay so the government sets up a tariff that means if anyone is bringing a good into the u.s they have to pay the tariff on it and that money goes to the government so okay there's been a long history of tariffs in the u.s this was a huge domestic policy thing particularly in the 1800s that's really fucking boring the incredibly short version of it is that the thing about tariffs is that especially like tariffs on a specific sector is that they're good for you manufacturing that thing kind of mostly and they're bad for anyone trying to buy

that good because it's now more expensive so trump's plan and we're going to get into a bit more detail about this because there's parts of trump's tariff plan that everyone seems to have forgotten about for some reason that i i don't know why they've forgotten about but the basic plan is to impose something like a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all goods that enter the u.s from anywhere there's specifically one from mexico but the numbers on what the mexico tariff is changes every time he opens his mouth sometimes it's like 25 there's one where it's like 250%. Of course, two interchangeable percentages. Yeah. And then for China, it's supposed to be a tariff of somewhere between 60%. 60% is the most commonly cited number, but he's also said 100% tariff. Once again, basically the same thing. Yeah. And so, you know, part of what we, unfortunately, the rest of us who live in

the normal world have to do is figure out what is actually going to happen if we get, for example, 20% tariffs on all goods entering the US and a 60% tariff on goods from China. So the first thing you need to understand, I think most people kind of get this now, but the thing about a tariff is that you pay for it. So the way that it works in general is that this is just an additional cost for the company that's doing that that's doing the like moving the good around right and so they are almost always going to just pass that cost directly on to you obviously sometimes we've talked about pricing the way the pricing works a lot on this show companies tend not to want to raise prices largely because of their effects on consumer happiness and brand loyalty and stuff like that so sometimes people will just eat shit on it but if you're talking about a 60% tariff like you the 60% tariff is going to be paid for by you so that means that anytime we buy

something that's either from mexico or china or any of the other countries that this will be applied to the the easiest way for these for these companies to get around the tariff is just to pass off the cost of the consumer yeah and and it's actually worse than that because and this is something i don't think people really understand when you think about global trade right people tend to think about trade as something that happens between countries and this is something that was an old you know dream like the anti-globalization movement people sort of understood this and kind of don't now trade doesn't actually really happen between countries most trade is one company an international company moving a resource from one country to another right so like trade is fucking amazon moving something from a warehouse in one country to

warehouse in a second country right now i've seen a lot of people and this this ranges from like very very serious sort of you know news sources and economists trying to sort of just directly model what the price increases are going to be i've seen people be like oh your shirts are going to cost 60 more or physical video games will stop existing because they're too expensive and who gives a shit what why are we even trying to do sectoral modeling of the impacts of this if you try to impose a 60 to 100 tariff on goods from china and a 20 tariff on all goes into the country the economy will collapse i don't i don't know why everyone is pretending that this won't fucking happen we're going to get into it a second i guess the reason why people are pretending this

is happening because the way the way they're doing the modeling kind of assumes that it won't which is baffling incomprehensible nonsense well and that's especially amusing because the seemingly biggest issue this year around politics has been inflation which has impacted every country around the globe the u.s has actually weathered it decently well although there's been a catastrophic failure in communicating that and listening to the actual complaints from like people on how they're still struggling with rising inflation but still a big reason why trump was elected is because he simply is not joe biden yeah and he's not from the biden harris administration and there's this perception that he will be able to fix the economy. He will be able to get around inflation, lower prices,

when seemingly his main economic proposal will lead to what's probably going to be an economic collapse if it happens in the brutality of which he proposes. Yeah, and there's another element of this, right? When I say that the likely result of Trump actually trying to implement his tariff policy is a global economic collapse, there's another part of this that everyone seems to have forgotten.

And I don't know why they've forgotten this i guess it's because nobody actually reads any of the things that trump puts out on his website which is true no one actually reads that stuff it's not especially his own supporters yeah a majority of his own supporters do not pay attention to like daily news yes and now i remember this because i did an episode about these tariffs like like six ago. And one of the things about this, he has a thing called Agenda 47, right? Which was his agenda for what he's going to do when he takes power. Which no one has cared about. And now everyone is going through and posting policy proposals from like fucking two years ago with the headline,

Breaking News, Trump Announces New Plan. And we're like, no, he hasn't. These are old plans. This stuff is like two years old. He's been openly talking about all this. Yeah, for ages. And one of the important parts of this, I'm just going to read this quote because it is a part of this that has been ignored by

every single fucking analysis I've seen from like fucking the Center for American Progress who obviously were going to screw this up to like Stanford's labs. Like everyone who's been writing about this has just ignored this part which is quote, as one of his top economic priorities, President Trump will stop the flow of American jobs overseas by passing the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. Under the landmark legislation, if any foreign country imposes a

tariff on American-made goods that is higher than the tariff imposed by the U.S., President Trump will have the authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on that country's goods. Okay, so what this would do, again, is that any country that has a tariff already or imposes a tariff on that country's goods okay so what this would do again is that any country that has a tariff already or imposes a tariff and this is important if we get into a trade war where countries start imposing tariffs on each other in retaliation for their other tariffs which is what happened when he did this trade war with china in like 2018 2019 that means that we're also going to impose a tariff which means that the tariff rates don't stay at 10 to 20 percent they cyclically spiral upwards that's just like an escalating series of tariffs yeah

and the thing is right the policy proposals that they have on his page are like well okay we're gonna do this through like a presidential act right but the thing is the president actually has really really under under a number of different acts has extremely wide discretionary authority to set tariffs as long as he can basically sort of like cobble together some kind of bullshit excuse for it and at that point you're relying on the supreme court to stop literally anything that trump does like they don't give a shit well i mean i don't know maybe maybe someone will like go up to like in clarence thomas and go like hey if we do this like, importing new windshield wipers for your RV is going to cost $10 million more or whatever.

But there's no shot of this stuff getting stopped. And the thing is, right, the reciprocal tariff stuff, he could just do this through his existing tariff authority. He doesn't actually even need to pass something through Congress, which would actually be, I think, tricky for him, but he doesn't need to. You know what we need to do right now, Thelmia?

Just badly, badly. cut to a bunch of companies that are going to be absolutely fucking eviscerated if this goes through that's right donald trump stands for anti-capitalist action he's going to destroy free trade so enjoy these ads when you still can hey guys i'm kate max you might know me from my popular online series Hey guys, I'm Kate Max. You might know me from my popular online series, The Running Interview Show, where I run with celebrities, athletes, entrepreneurs, and more.

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Okay, we are back. Mia, let's hear how Trump is going to perfect the capitalist economic system by a series of escalating tariffs that will destroy the economy, and in doing so, providing the opportunity for Marxists to seize power and change the world economic system. Yeah, so I'm going to read another quote from that same Agenda 47 thing. Quote, for example, food items like cereals or other preparatory goods are tariffed at 32.9% by India, 19.5% by China, and only 3.1% by the U.S. India applies a tariff of 25.3% on transportation equipment, while the U.S.

only tariffs those guys at 2.9%. Now, those exact numbers are debatable, but it doesn't matter because these are going to be vibes-based ones based on how pissed off Trump is at a country. Yeah, Trump is usually a vibes-based guy, especially when it comes to the economy, especially when it comes to

these numbers he's pulling out, like between 60% to 100%. He doesn't know what any of those numbers means he's just thinking of a number and saying it out loud and the thing about all of these things right even even even just the base 20 or let's let's go to the lowest numbers he's talked about which is a 10 tariff on all goods and a 60 tariff on chinese goods right right? That, in and of itself, blows a smoking crater in the world economy. And none of the assessments that you will read are talking about this.

One of the things that they will mention that is true, but they're not getting to the importance of, is that this affects stuff that's made in the U.S. Because the thing about things that are made in the U.S. is that they're made from components that are from elsewhere because that's how international supply chains work. Oh, wait, even though we have, through tariffs, moved all manufacturing of Toyota into the United States,

you're saying that still some of the materials are not all solely made and produced within the country, and it actually requires on foreign trade? Yeah, and part of the problem, I think, of like, okay, so if you logically think out the conclusions of what that means right okay first mistake abia that you're trying to solve this problem through logic you won't but here's the thing right obviously trump is not gonna think through this right but i i kind of expect people who are like writing about this for a living to

do mildly better than this and possibly some of the people that he like hires onto his cabinet and team maybe but we'll see no i'm not talking about like his critics oh sure sure that one of the numbers you'll see all the time the center for american progress has this line about how the tariffs will function as a tax that cost the american consumer like 1700 a year right which was the line that kamala used pretty often yeah framing his tariffs as like a sales tax this is fucking horseshit the the only way you can think that the the net effect of this would just be a 1700 tax is if you don't understand how the economy works at all right so i went through and read this and the way that they model it is just by like they find the like net dollar value of imported goods and then apply a

tax to it and then try to figure out like how much of those goods that the average person would buy in a year and then increase the price but and this is something that's very important at the end of the analysis right at the very end there's a little section where they say that they assume this would have no other effects on the economy this is unbelievably fucking stupid i cannot emphasize enough can you explain why that doesn't make any sense so okay so here's the thing right prices go up now people can buy less things what does that do to the economy well it slows its growth rate right companies start to go out of business and we're going to get into more of the ways that this plays out in a second right but a bunch of a bunch of people in a bunch of places fucking lose their jobs because suddenly the reduction in consumer demand means that there's a there's

a fucking reduction in necessary production and this has cyclical effects throughout the entire economy as more and more people fucking lose their jobs and also you know the thing the thing about those people who lose their jobs is that that also fucking reduces demand because those people are now even like less able to afford the stuff that's been increased by inflation prices and this this spirals through the entire world economy in order to understand what exactly this is going to do i think we need to understand why you know because like if kamala harris i don't know if it makes any difference in the election but kamala harris walks on the stage and says this is going to cost you 1700 she does not walk on the stage and say this is going to cause an

economic collapse right and i i think i think the reason that happened is because we've gotten into this place where nobody fucking understands how the economy works at all in a way that's even worse than it was even in like the 2010s it's like in the 2010s i think people sort of had a vague understanding the thing that was happening to the economy was uberization whatever you call it was the expansion of gig work right there was sort of an understanding and a focus on the very sort of low level parts of the economy like what what are you a poor person doing for your job right how does how does your income work and and not purely on these sort of like high finance or in the in the case in the case of what's been happening here everyone has been unbelievably completely focused on like

the chips act and like state-led industrialization and all that stuff is fucking bullshit it's it basically hasn't done anything yet it's not going to do anything for like a decade and it's not mostly what's going on in the economy i've been holding my tongue on this for years but the people who have been writing about the economy don't understand how the fuck it works because they've been completely myopically obsessed with the idea that we're in this new era of state capitalism and no like the actual thing that's been happening in the economy and i think if if you are like a person who buys stuff you probably understand this but for some reason this has never made it to like economists or like people who fucking write about the economy for a living is consumer to manufacturer sales so this is stuff like temu this is stuff like

shian who is she and i mean invented it's a strong word but they're one of the first people who sort of popularized this model right and this is a thing where you have a platform that lets people like nominally buy directly from the factories or from you know the people who are producing fruit right and these factories aren't producing goods until basically either people order the goods or like analytics tells them to order it so they don't have a lot of the problems that other kind of like distribution bottles have you have a bunch of goods sitting in a warehouse you just like you just don't have that because you don't start production until your sort of orders come in your analytics come in and the theory here is you can reduce costs

by eliminating the middleman but of course a new kind of middleman emerged and that is the drop shipper oh god so the drop shipper is just someone using the the consumer to manufacturer pipeline right the the platforms that are supposed to let you the consumer sort of just like buy directly from the thing and cut out middlemen it's just someone doing that but then turning around and selling you the result and this has become just utterly fucking ubiquitous in the american economy it's it's sort of like an integral part of the american scam economy now too as the american economy has been increasingly sort of riddled and consumed by scams and riddled and consumed by sort of like people trying to capitalize on like some fucking meme or some political thing you know you

have all these people doing like dropship t-shirts right but they can immediately come in and yeah sell all of this stuff these like short-lived like trend meme based either like fashion or even like goods you know we can talk about like the amount of like content creator merch that is all funneled through these like dropshipping companies yeah and it's also what's been it's it's the thing that's enabled like fast fashion to function's the thing that's enabled fast fashion to function in the way that it is right now, right? Absolutely. And this has become what consumption is

in large swaths of the world, is from this sort of direct-to-consumer drop shipping shit. Right? Yeah. Now, the thing about these drop shipping things is that their profit margins are really, really low. They don't make that much money. And in fact fact a lot of these things like hemorrhage money until they've basically you know they do the thing that amazon did right where like you lose money for a million years but then

eventually you have enough market share that you start making money again yeah because you make it so all your competitors basically can't function because you have prices that are so low and then when you're the only one in the game with a sizable power influence you can raise prices and then you make tons of money also the uber model although uber still isn't profitable yeah well so yeah uber will never make any money right um but the other thing here that's important is that you know so the margins of of a company like temu right which is like probably the biggest of these sort of companies now are low but temu technically has tech money like they have money to back them up

right you know who doesn't have an unbelievable amount of just like capital sitting around they could just instantly pull from if suddenly there is i don't know a 60 percent fucking price shock oh wait it's all of the fucking manufacturing you know tiny manufacturing firms that these drop shipping things use to produce all their stuff right that infrastructure That infrastructure is very fragile. Its margins are very bad. And, oh, guess what happens to that shit if you impose 60% tariffs on it, right? It just shuts down

because that's the easiest option, right? Yeah, and, you know, and presumably, I think one of the other parts of this would be part of the reason that this has been happening is that all of this stuff isn't being imported, like,

under tariff loopholes. But, like, that loophole's not hard to close, right? What tariff loopholes but like that loophole is not hard to close right what tariff loopholes are you like referring to oh yeah so i talked about this the temu episode there's loopholes on american tariffs where like if you're if you're bringing stuff into the country that's below a certain value it has to be above like a six hundred dollars something to like trigger a threshold okay to like activate the the tariff supply into it so people just ship a bunch of like 1 billion boxes individually that are like 599 dollars to go under the thing

so you're saying i can still maybe buy my new sonic the hedgehog ps5 game though that should be fine i'll be totally good oh god okay so the the other part of this that's important right so this is the kind of i don't know if new is the right word but this is the kind of recent part of the economy that's incredibly dependent on chinese supply chains right that gets just liquefied if these tariffs go through these are enormous companies that you know are going to just eat shit and those companies eating shit have these sort of effects we talked about earlier, right? Which is it causes people to get fired, it causes growth collapses, it causes cyclical decreases in people's ability to buy things, and then also like demand decreases because people can't buy things. But this is like the new school supply chain stuff, right? Temu is a product of

really the last six or seven years. And it really only functions the way it does now and lasts about four but the previous two eras supply chain logistics right which is sort of walmart and amazon are both also almost completely dependent on chinese supply chains right yeah there's a good jd super article which is a they're like a business intelligence website right you know it talks about how walmart imports 70 of all of its goods from china yeah that tracks 70 70 right and and the reason that it works like this is because walmart's entire business model all of their supply chains all of their logistics everything that they do right was was designed basically hand in hand to be integrated into chinese economic production and you can't just

move that shit instantly right and this is also true something like amazon right where amazon like 63 percent of independent sellers on amazon this is from the same source are chinese right so what you're dealing with is vast parts of of the american economy right the the parts of the american economy that where you interface to buy things are based on goods that are suddenly going to have like 60 to 100 percent tariffs stapled onto them now the the thing that people have been talking about as the like oh well here's the thing that will happen instead instead of like instead of the thing that's pretty obviously going to happen if this stuff happens which is just the economic bubble we're in pops and everything starts to go

to shit people have been like oh well this will just accelerate the shift of production of goods out from China. And like, I've been talking about this for like a fucking decade, right? Like the Journal of Chuang, which is something that I talk about a lot that I reckon people read,

has been talking about this for literally ages and ages and ages. So people have been trying to move production out of China for ages. I mean, like one of the first big attempts to do this was in 2011 when there's a series of riots in China and people tried to move production out of china for ages i mean like one of the first big attempts to do this was in 2011 when there was there's a series of riots in china and people tried to move production of goods out of china and they couldn't do it and the reason that they couldn't do it was because you have to find a country that has both like a relatively skilled and educated labor

force and also has the infrastructure to be able to like match chinese production and so i mean we're talking about things like they have to have like a functioning electrical grid that is stable enough for production to function and this rules out an enormous number of countries and it's just really really hard and yeah like capital has chinese capital hasn't moving away from its sort of old centers in the probe delta to places like vietnam right but and this is the fucking big one right a lot of a lot of what's been happening for people have been talking about this thing called quote unquote decoupling which is which is this the separation of the u.s and chinese economy so that they're not like intertwined with each other people think this is good for ideological reasons or they think it's

just something that's happening and it's not it's not happening you know what else isn't happening it's us not plugging these products and services. I think we do legally have to plug them. So here they are. Here's the plugs for entrepreneurs, and more. After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast, Post Run High, is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together.

You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing real, inspiring stories from the people you know, follow, and admire, join me every week for Post Run High. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all. It's lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline Podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of

generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel winning economists to leading journalists in the field. And I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God, things can change if we're loud enough. So join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better.

Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. Hey, I'm Gianna Prandenti. And I'm Jimei Jackson-Gadsden. We're the hosts of Let's Talk Offline, the early career podcast from LinkedIn News and iHeart Podcasts.

One of the most exciting things about having your first real job is that first real paycheck. You're probably thinking, yay, I can finally buy a new phone. But you also have a lot of questions like, how should I be investing this money? I mean, how much do I save? And what about my 401k? Well, we're talking with finance expert Vivian Tu, aka Your Rich BFF, to break it all down. I always get roasted on the internet

when I say this out loud, but I'm like, every single year, you need to be asking for a raise of somewhere between 10 to 15%. I'm not saying you're gonna get 15% every single year, but if you ask for 10 to 15 and you end up getting eight, that is actually a true raise. Listen to this week's episode of Let's Talk Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not. Those were some callers from my call-in podcast, Therapy Gecko. It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over the world as a fake gecko therapist and try to dig into their brains and learn a little bit about their lives. I know that's a weird concept, but I promise it's pretty interesting if you give it a shot. Matter of fact, here's a few more examples of the kinds of calls we get on this show. I live with my boyfriend and I found his piss jar in our apartment.

I collect my roommate's toenails and fingernails. I have very overbearing parents. Even at the age of 29, they won't let me move out of their house. So if you want an excuse to get out of your own head and see what's going on in someone else's head, search for Therapy Gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It's the one with the green guy on it. Hey, fam, I'm Simone Boyce. I'm Danielle Robay. And we're the hosts of The Bright Side, the daily podcast from Hello Sunshine that is guaranteed to light up your day. Every weekday, we bring you conversations

with the culture makers who inspire us. Like our episode with actor, former Beverly Hills 90210 star and host of the podcast, I Choose Me, Jenny Garth. There have been so many times when I've been really lost. I say that because I'm on the other side of it. And the only way to get to the other side of something is to go through it, not around it. Allow your body to feel the pain.

And then you have to dig in sometimes and look within to learn from it. Because that's what all these obstacles are for, I guess. Ultimately, what other choice do you have? Listen to The Bright Side from Hello Sunshine on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, now that you've decoupled yourself from your money to buy these products and services let's let's talk a bit more about why decoupling is fucking bullshit one and i've been something i've been saying on the show for years like people have this sort of fantasy that what's happening is that okay instead of making your thing in china you make your thing somewhere else and this means that american companies no longer have the supply chains running through China.

That's not what's happening at all. On the financial front, what you have is actually increasing integration as China attempts to sort of like, you know, has been lifting restrictions on the ownership of different types of corporations to make it easier for foreign owners to actually come in and invest and put capital in China. Right. come in and invest and put capital in China, right? The second thing that's happening is a lot of these supposedly, like, we're cutting China out of the supply chain things have been a bunch of Chinese companies starting to set up production in Mexico. Now, the thing about that,

right, if Mexico was supposed to be the fucking panacea for getting us out of these tariffs, remember that Trump was talking about 200% tariffs on Mexico, and that's the country that's supposed to, like, fucking get us out of this mess by, like, oh, it'll be fine, because, like, production will just shift away from China to, like, to where?

Like, a lot of the assumptions I was reading was, like, people were talking about, oh, the production will, like, 25% of production will, like, shift to Canada. It's like, no, it won't. Canada doesn't have the fucking production facilities to do this. Like, what are you talking about? Like, Canada doesn't have the population to do this. No, it doesn't. And this is this

sort of problem, right? You know, on the one hand, you know, China has been deindustrializing for like a decade and a half now, right? And kind of slowly, but the percentage of the population that's working in manufacturing has been steadily decreasing for years and years and years and years. But the problem is that when you move production out of a place, you actually have to have a second place to produce it. And there just haven't been, right? It's pretty easy to move low-end manufacturing. This is what's been happening, right? Like really cheap garment stuff, for example,

has been moving to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam for a while. But once you start getting into the stuff that China produces the most of, which is things like fucking cell phones, sort of mid-tier commodity production, that gets way, way, way, way, way harder. way harder no but the chips act will save us mia i i heard it from everyone on the television i just god this this is the sort of thing about this right is if you look if you read the analyses that people are doing of this they just sort of assume that you can just like oh well like naturally a bunch of the consumption that americans are doing will stay the same because they'll go buy goods that aren't

produced in china it's like okay where, where are you finding these goods from? Like what production facilities are you just like suddenly that have just been like sitting there fallow or just suddenly going to like appear out of nowhere. And the answer is like, that's not going to happen. And it's not, it's not going to happen partially because they don't exist. And partially because again, the, the immediate consequence of this is a massive economic collapse china's economy has already been slowing for the like basically i mean it's been slowing since like 2008 really well i see us in 11 kind of but it's especially been slowing in the past two or three years because of sort of covid restriction stuff and also just a kind of lackluster rate of returns on their own

like they had their own version of the 2008 housing bubble um and that's annihilated an unbelievable amount of money because it turns out investing in real estate doesn't work as is basis for economy but like that's the thing right if the chinese economy fucking goes down right that's like that's 17 of the world's gdp 17 yeah of the total gdp right and it's like the economy isn't national in a way where you can have an economic collapse in another country and just in just a country that's that large and ignore it and i think i want to close on and the reason we know that this is true is that it is actually possible kind of to to restart america domestic manufacturing right reagan was able to do it in the 80s and and Reagan did it through this thing called the Plaza Accords,

where he basically, he didn't literally put the prime ministers of Japan and West Germany at gunpoint, but he basically put them at gunpoint and forced them to increase the value of their currencies so that the U.S. currency would devalue, which makes it like a more competitive export economy. And this actually brought back American manufacturing for a while until it had to all be reversed under the

clinton administration in the reverse plaza accords because the problem was when you sort of nuked the zero-sum manufacturing of a country like japan their fucking economy didn't work anymore and in order to sort of bail out the japanese economy and stop just a sort of world-running economic collapse it would have just like tore the absolute shit out of the economy the u.s had to fucking re-increase the value of its currency and lose its whole domestic production base right you can't actually increase a production base in in the world right now without decreasing it somewhere else and that has sort of staggering ripple economic effects for the for the entire global economy which which is why even if trump's plan worked somehow and didn't immediately

cause an economic collapse by the direct effect on American consumers, it would cause another economic collapse by the effect on fucking people in China. So... Well, Mia, I think you might be overreacting here a little bit, because at least food will be available.

Obviously, and I learned this on X, my main source for news, is that agriculture, almost all done in the States. So we should be fine. Like, we'll still be able to eat food, right? I say, staring into the void. No, you can't.

Because unfortunately, the thing about American agriculture is it's all fucking mechanized agriculture. The thing about mechanized agriculture is that you need the mechanized part, and that's all fucking mechanized agriculture the thing about mechanized agriculture is that you need the mechanized part and that's all fucking produced either in other countries or the john deere fucking like tractor factories in the u.s are all unbelievably reliant on a bunch of parts that are made overseas so also we do import a great deal of food. Oh, we do. Yeah. Even just talking about the food that we produce here. Right.

Like that's also going to be fun. I wonder I wonder where your strawberries in November are coming from. Oh, yeah. I think the other thing to keep in mind here is that this is only one aspect of how Trump will impact the economy. Obviously, his immigration policies could serve a similarly large financial problem if a whole bunch of agricultural jobs suddenly kind of vanish and farms and other processing plants just go out of business due to a lack in workers yeah and even

some people on trump's team have started to acknowledge this. Mostly Elon Musk, who has openly said that Trump's term will involve some, quote, temporary hardship. So between tariffs and mass deportations, like even people on his team know that this is going to damage the economy, especially in the short term, if not the like forever term. Yeah. And yet he was still elected as the economically viable candidate yeah and i think the last part we should say in this is it's not that you can't like fucking obliterate a giant portion of the american economy and still come out extremely popular because you've crushed the american working class like that that's what reagan did right like reagan and the volker shocks did

this enormous i mean just put a crater in the American economy in the, in, in Reagan's first term, like there's skyrocketing unemployment, just like real, real sort of economic devastation. But the thing about the Volker shock was that the way he blew up the economy was really,

really good for people who like fucking owned assets, like people who, who like owned bonds, like people, like people who held other people's debt it was great for those people and like the burgeoning investment economy which now kind of dominates our entire economic system yeah and it was incredible for those people and so it was fine but to think about this economic collapse that this is also going to just absolutely fuck up the

days of a bunch of extremely wealthy and influential capitalists so including by the way elon musk whose teslas are produced in china like he has a gigafactory he's a gigafactory in xinjiang so we'll see if trump actually is able to implement this stuff he's i think he's able to on a policy level it's just politically can he actually do these tariffs yeah it's it's unclear it's also unclear what exact numbers he's going to run with a 10 tariff will still be bad but it's nothing compared to 100 tariff i think trump by and large just says whatever comes into his head without thinking through the actual logistical ends of what he's saying and i think most trump supporters do not take him literally as a person at least they don't take what he says necessarily literally all the time they take him seriously but perhaps not literally yeah so we'll have to see how this actually plays out if it does play out in the ways that trump has

said that it's going to play out it is going to just unbelievably tank the economy in in ways that absolutely suck so yeah that's that's happening here in the future maybe that's the name of the podcast right so stock up on your ps5s now before they get harder to buy and it'll be fine yeah there'll be there'll be nothing else bad that happens to the economy as long as you have your ps5s yeah people always want fucking books at the end of episodes so i'm just putting books at the end of episodes this is my plugging chuang c-h-u-a-n-g we'll put it in the description it's a bunch of stuff about chinese economics mostly it's a sort of economic history of originally the socialist period and then this transition to capitalism but it also has a bunch of very very good stuff on trying to understand

the chinese economy and so if you want to be about 10 years ahead of like guys who write for The Economist, if you read Chuang, you will end up being like 10 years ahead of those guys. So yeah, great stuff. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find sources for It Could Happen Here listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into Tex Elite and how they've turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires.

From the chaotic world of generative Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series. Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts from. or at the end of a busy day. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Listen to Black Lit on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. AT&T, connecting changes everything. Curious about queer sexuality, cruising, and expanding your horizons? Hit play on the sex-positive and deeply entertaining podcast, I Heart Radio. Confessions. Sniffy's Cruising Confessions will broaden minds and help you pursue your true goals.

You can listen to Sniffy's Cruising Confessions, sponsored by Gilead, now on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes every Thursday. Welcome to Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German, where we get real and dive straight into todo lo actual y viral. We're talking música, los premios, el chisme, and all things trending in my cultura. I'm bringing you all the latest happening in our entertainment world and some fun and impactful interviews with your favorite Latin artists, comedians, actors, and influencers. Each week, we get deep and raw life stories, combos on the issues that matter to us, and it's all packed with gems, fun, straight-up comedia, and that's a song that only nuestra gente can sprinkle.

Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The 2025 iHeart Podcast Awards are coming. This is the chance to nominate your podcast for the industry's biggest award. Submit your podcast for nomination now at iHeart.com slash podcast awards. But hurry, submissions close on December 8th. Hey, you've been doing all that talking. It's time to get rewarded for it. Submit your podcast today at iHeart.com slash podcast awards.

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