It Could Happen Here - Libya with Andrew
Episode Date: April 28, 2026Andrew and James talk about the revolution and civil war in Libya, and discuss the campist approach to world affairs. Sources: Iran retaliation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjrqqd8lw2wo Timeline... of Libyan History: https://www.britannica.com/place/Libya/History Timeline of Libyan revolt: https://www.britannica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011 Behind the NTC: http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1062/2/who-drove-the-libyan-uprising Consequences and Motivations of Libya intervention: https://jacobin.com/2015/02/libya-intervention-nato-imperialism https://web.archive.org/web/20220517202837/https://merip.org/2011/11/was-the-libya-intervention-necessary/ https://jacobin.com/2021/03/nato-libya-war-uk-us-france-regime-change https://jacobin.com/2011/09/libya-and-the-left Rebel abuses: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14891913 Targeting of Black Libyans and Migrants: https://www.npr.org/2011/10/20/141549384/blacks-and-migrants-targets-of-attack-in-libya Displacement numbers in 2012: https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/4ec23100b.pdf Consequences of first civil war: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/24/libya-capital-under-islamist-control-tripoli-airport-seized-operation-dawn https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/2/16/libya-anniversary-the-situation-is-just-terrible An attempt at unification: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/libyan-politicians-sign-un-peace-deal-unify-rival-governments El Sharara oilfield situation: https://middle-east-online.com/node/708060 The status quo as of 2020: https://www.politico.eu/article/the-libyan-conflict-explained/ Another attempt at unification: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/15/libya-interim-government-sworn-in-replacing-rival-administration https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/21/libya-parliament-withdraws-confidence-from-unity-government https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/un-voices-concern-over-vote-on-new-libyan-prime-minister Morality police: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/fears-religious-freedom-libya-proposes-new-morality-police Slave auction: https://africasacountry.com/2017/11/the-slave-auction-in-libya Libya’s arms in regional instability: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-arms-un-idUSBRE93814Y20130409/ Natural disaster: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/09/year-rebuilding-libyas-flood-hit-derna-plagued-politics https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-floods-derna-turkish-firm-said-repaired-dam-did-itSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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So, by the time you hear this, the situation may have evolved in any number of directions.
I'm speaking in the immediate wake of the United States and Israel's brutal invasion of Iran.
Thus far, over a thousand have been killed, including over 100 school children, and the Supreme
leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamini. In response to this American Israeli aggression,
Iran has retaliated by targeting both American bases and civilian and energy infrastructure
in the neighboring countries that have facilitated American presence in the region.
With the strategically and economically critical straight to Hormuz in jeopardy, with France,
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Russian and Chinese involvement also being floated in some circles, it seems to me that without
any formal announcement, the war on the world has escalated potentially to a point of no return.
Hello and welcome to Ikrappin here. I'm Andrew Sage, Andrewism on YouTube and I'm joined again by
James. Hi Andrew, how you doing? As well as I can be.
Yeah, that's about the best we can hope for these days, isn't it? Yeah. And in a time like
this, I want to take a look back at history, particularly how past U.S. interventions have left
devastation in their way. Today I want to look at the fate of Libya, a country still dealing
with the simmer intentions following the end of the post-intervention civil war. So I suppose we
should begin in mid-February in 2011. The Arab Spring was sweeping the Middle East and North
Africa. Among the countries caught up in the further against the prevailing states was Libya. A North African
state ruled for the previous 42 years by the Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi's government. Masses had taken
to the streets across the country starting in Benghazi. The government had some successes in putting down
the revolt, killing hundreds of rebels and demonstrators alike, and some failures, as the masses
managed to hold position. The people had many motivations, spanning Islamist, and
to democratic, to militant, to tribal, to just disaffected,
against a government intent on its continued survival.
Revolutions, uprisings, protests, revolts, they tend to be messy affairs.
I'm sure James, you're well away of that.
Yeah, yeah.
I think it's really easy as to like outside observers or when we're looking back at history
to be like, oh, this revolution was an Islamist revolution.
This was a Marxist-Leninist revolution.
this one was an anarchist revolution,
but every revolution that I have been at,
they have witnessed happening,
is in everything revolution when it starts,
and it later becomes a something revolution,
but especially in the Arab Spring, right?
Like in that time,
it was just like we've had enough of being under the boot
of these regimes.
And it was extraordinarily heterodox,
and that was quite beautiful in the early days.
exactly exactly the heterodox nature of revolutions is really what i want to drill here because i think
it's it's very easy people to caricaturize and sweep up broad brush and this determine or this is
in the case of iran people are saying or it's only monarchists it's monarchists and zionists going out
in the streets when they were protesting when the situation on the ground is always more complex than that
Yeah, maybe I'll just take a second to address the, like, annoying campus tendency.
I understand that every time the United States rains down death on some part of the world, it's terrible, right?
It's sad, as you've just said, Andrew.
In Iran, we've seen a girls' school bombed not once but twice, it seems, right?
Like, what they call a double-tack attack.
That doesn't mean that your response has to be to support the other people who are killing those.
same civilians in that same place. It is possible for two things to be bad. And like in Iran,
yeah, there is a monarchist opposition. It sucks. I spoke just this morning to a Kurdish group,
which is opposing the regime in Iran. And they had nothing but bad things to say about the
monarchists, right? They said, this is the P.A.K. Right, the Kurdistan Freedom Party. I'm quoting here.
They do not have a foothold in society to actually achieve anything.
The lies and delusions of a group of people sitting in nightclubs cannot make any real impact.
You're free to use that one next time someone tells you all the opposition in Iran's monochist.
It's nonsense.
Exactly.
I mean, just on its face, it's obviously nonsense.
There's this notion that these people are high of minds.
It's really a racist notion that you see pop and up again and again.
Yeah, very orientalist.
Yeah, anytime people step outside and they, they,
have something that they're upset about, they just get labeled with this one broad, sweeping, ideological
whether they're prescribed to it or not.
Yeah.
And even within the ideological monocas, there's always a lot of nuance in how people understand
those ideologies.
You know, no two Islamists are necessarily alike, no two monarchists even are necessarily alike.
And those are both ideologies that I absolutely abhor, you know?
Right.
Yeah.
I don't understand how you can be a leftist and spend your life, like, as such.
And then also think that in other parts of the world, people don't want the same things.
Like, I believe it is inherently human to want dignity and respect and the same for others
and to want our communities to govern themselves.
And I don't believe that it's any less human if you live in North Africa or the Middle East
or South Africa or an island in the Caribbean or an island in a Pacific.
like, I believe it comes from our human nature.
And so it strikes me as therefore obvious
that there cannot be a country
where people's human nature is fundamentally distinct
and they're all just like knee-jerk monarchists.
I wouldn't see the world the way I see it
if I was able to believe that.
Yeah, yeah.
These movements, they're always composed
by the choices and actions of sometimes millions of people
each with their own motivations.
And it's easy, particularly in retrospect,
to pick particular leaders or,
organizations as representative of them all.
That doesn't make it so.
Yeah.
One of the things that defined the Arab Spring, as you mentioned, was it's a leaderless nature.
You had new liberals, you had monarchists, you had socialists, you had most of all, I would say,
people without any ideological commitments at all.
The majority of the human population is not ideologically committed one way or the other.
Most people are just trying to live their lives and meet their basic needs.
Yeah.
And they're submerged in a society that lends them towards a particular inclination, but that's not set in stone.
Most people, in the Arab Spring, likely sought just the end of whatever it was that they were suffering under before.
And of course, in these kind of incidents, geopolitical actors will choose to back particular factions, lend them credence and prominence according to their geopolitical interests.
But don't give them undue credit.
During the Cold War, for example, the US would have backed rebellions that they believe,
would benefit them and Viseboosa the USSR back rebellion so they thought would benefit them.
And even today, the US is claiming to care about freedom but has continued to work with
the Saudis who infamously invaded Bahrain to crush the Arab Spring that occurred there.
Yeah.
And at the time, France's love for democracy didn't exactly match their offer to aid Algeria
and Tunisia in putting down their own Arab Springs.
Now, as I've been saying quite often,
pointing out hypocrisy is kind of a baby's first geopolitical analysis, right?
None of these governments have any consistent values beyond their own interests.
But I think it's important to make this kind of heterodoxy in movements clear
to contextualize what happened next.
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There's another notion that U.S. intervention is entering these countries during these
conflicts to uphold humanitarian aims to liberate the women or to liberate minorities in that region.
The United States, like all the government, is opportunistic, right? It is taking advantage of
often genuine struggles by people to serve its own situational goals without a care for what happens
those people, either openly intervening or covertly intervening. Most obvious recent example is with the
Kurds in Syria. At the time, they were condemned.
convenient to the United States interests until they weren't, and they were abandoned.
And this is especially the case when resources like oil come into the picture, and Libya is
extremely oil rich. So tragically, the West saw this uprising in Libya as an opportunity.
Following a timeline in Scyclepeter Britannica, on the 19th of March 2011, Libya was attacked
by the combined forces of the United States, the UK and France.
These countries now condemned Gaddafi as an oppressor of the civilians they were swooping in to save,
though for years before the UK and France were selling him weapons.
They, alongside their Qatari and Saudi allies, took advantage of the protests to assert their military might.
This move was authorized by the UN Resolution 1973 and NATO would soon take command of the operation,
while claiming to protect civilians under a responsibility to protect doctrine, they bombed them.
An allegedly humanitarian intervention led to the deaths of tens of thousands,
of a national population of just over 6 million.
Key infrastructure was devastated by the NATO-Olloman campaign
and by the struggles between the government and the now armed rebels of the National Transitional Council, or NTC.
A quick note, by the way, the NTC appointed themselves as the leaders of the movement.
And despite the struggle being kickstarted by mostly working and middle-class militants,
often of an Islamic orientation, the NTC was composed mainly of regime defectors, businessmen,
and exiles who had a broadly pro-Western, conservative, and free market stance.
Some of the elements in Gaddafi's government and military had defected to the rebels
and equipped those previously unarmed protesters with firepower.
And up to now, we only have estimates regarding the civilian death door.
infrastructural devastation and arbitrary detentions,
disappearances, and kidnappings carried out by both pro-Gaddafi and anti-Gaddafi forces.
Not to mention the deliberate targeting of black Libyans and sub-Saharan African migrants by rebel forces
that took place during and after the 2011 war,
with the claim that they were Gaddafi's hired mercenaries.
Many of those Africans attempts to escape were met with callous disregard by Europe.
Yeah, callus gets regard.
I mean, there are no words strong enough to express the way I feel about the
way the European Union has treated migrants and alleviated is absolutely disgusting and continues to be.
Dispicable.
Yeah.
Have you read Sally Hayden's book about this?
No, I haven't.
It's called My Fourth Time We Drowned.
Very good book.
Difficult read, I would say.
It very much is some of the type of reporting that I try and do myself on migration and that it talks
about people, not numbers, and it centres migrants as individuals with stories.
It's a great book, but I probably not want to read right before bed.
I could imagine.
It sounds heavy.
Yeah, definitely heavy going.
So, following a steelmate between the pro and Gaddafi camps in late spring of 2011,
the rebels assisted by NATO forces took Tripoli and toppled Gaddafi's government.
and the NTC was recognized internationally, almost immediately, as the legitimate government of Libya.
As Matt Wilgris notes in Jack Ben, quote,
On the day Tripoli fell, the New York Times headline,
The Scramble for Access to Libya's oil wealth begins was telling.
Libya's vast oil reserves, long prized by the West for being the largest in Africa,
and incredibly close to Europe, were now open to business for foreign investors.
As is the case with all imperial interventions, the attempts to get profits flowing for multinational corporations
comes long before any ideas of reconstruction, such as essential infrastructural projects or
insurance services, end quote.
And really up to now, that infrastructure has not been established, and even access to Libya's
oil is not yet secured, even though they allegedly managed to loot some of that oil in 2012.
Now, Gaddafi himself fled after the fall of Tripoli, but he was found.
NATO bombed his convoy and he was captured alive, then executed by NTC forces in October 2011,
after which the war was declared over and the NTC declared Libya and Islamic democracy
in their constitutional declaration.
The NTC estimated 30,000 dead and a UN report from 2012 estimated that more than 900,000 people
had to leave the country since February of 2011.
Many were not Libya nationals, but more than 660,000.
Libyans also fled and an estimate to 200,000 people had been internally displaced.
Continuing with our timeline, in 2012, the NTC handed power over to the General National Congress,
or GNC. And despite a formal end to the war, Gaddafi loyalists, local militias and tribes
shaved against each other and the GNC. The militias wouldn't disarm, the Gaddafi loyalists continued
to fight. And the GNC failed to put forward a new constitution. So in 2014,
they were ousted by the newly elected House of Representatives,
and in 2014, a second civil war would begin in Libya,
with the nation split, meaning between the House of Representatives,
or H-O-R, with its Libya National Army, or LNA, based in Tobruk to the east,
and their rival made up of mostly Islamists from the former GNC
with their Libya-Dorn militia based in Tripoli to the West.
They didn't win the election,
they didn't consider it legitimate because of its low turnout,
and they didn't appreciate the amount of former Gaddafi supporters in the new government.
So they rose up to fight, claiming to be the National Salvation Government or NSG.
So you have the HOR and you have the NSG.
Beyond these two factions, you also had an Al-Qaeda affiliated militia and the Islamic State,
both engaged in insurgent struggle around the country, sometimes holding entire cities.
Eventually, the two governments came together to sign the LPA,
the Libyan political agreement to form the interim presidential council and government of
national accord or GNA in late 2015.
With that attempt at cohesion didn't really work out as the UN backed to GNA, now based in Tripoli,
couldn't consolidate power. By the end of 2016, factions affiliated with the NSG still resisted
the GNA and the HOR still based in Tobruk refused to endorse the GNA's appointments.
So they went from having two competing governments to kind of having three,
though the main opposing forces were now the GNA and the HOR.
The GNA was backed by Turkey, Qatar and the EU, especially Italy, and the UN.
While the HOR was backed by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates,
and to some extent France, who technically recognized the GNA,
but also provided support the HOR for their struggle against the Islamists.
The U.S. was also supposed to be back in the GNA, but Trump jumped out to praise the H-O-R at one point.
So the U.S.'s position was exposed as a lot more ambiguous in practice.
Yeah.
Canadian women are looking for more.
More out of themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them.
And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast.
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And I'm Catherine Clark.
And in this podcast, we interview Canada's most inspiring.
women. Entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their
journey. So if you're looking to connect, then we hope you'll join us. Listen to the Honest Talk
podcast on IHeartRadio or wherever you listen to your podcasts. I went and sat on the little
ottoman in front of him. Hi, Dad. And just when I said that, my mom comes out of the kitchen.
She says, I have some cookies and milk. This is this badass convict. Right. Just, just,
finished five years.
I'm going to have cookies and milk at
mom.
Yeah.
On the senior show podcast, each episode
invites you into a raw, unfiltered
conversations about recovery,
resilience, and redemption.
On a recent episode, I sit down with
actor, cultural icon,
Danny Trail, talk about addiction,
transformation, and the power of second
chances. The entire season two is now
available to bench, featuring
powerful conversations with the guests like
Tiffany Addish, Johnny Knoxville,
I'm an alcoholic.
And without this trouble, I'm going to die.
Open your free I-Heart radio app.
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And listen now.
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It's Financial Literacy Month, and the podcast, Eating While Broke, is bringing real conversations about money, growth, and building your future.
This month, hear from top streamer, Zoh Spencer, and venture capitalist Lakeisha Landrum, PA.
as they share their journeys from starting out to leveling up.
If I'm outside with my parents and they're seeing all these people come up to me for pictures,
it's like, what?
Today now, obviously, it's like 100%.
They believe everything.
But at first, it was just like, you got to go get a real job.
There's an economic component to communities thriving.
If there's not enough money and entrepreneurship happening in communities, they fail.
And what I mean by fail is they don't have money to pay for food.
They cannot feed their kids.
They do not have homes.
Communities don't work unless there's money.
money flowing through them.
Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Hey there, folks, Amy Robach and T.J. Holmes here.
And we know there is a lot of news coming at you these days from the war with Iran to the ongoing
Epstein fallout, government shutdowns, high-profile trials, and what the hell is that
Blake lively thing about anyway?
We are on it every day, all day.
Follow us, Amy and TJ for news updates throughout the day.
Listen to Amy and TJ on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
So the GNA and the H.O.R. would keep on struggling against each other for control over the central bank and oil companies and territory over the years.
By the end of one particularly significant offensive in 2019, which saw the country's largest oil field brought under HOR control, the situation was such that the HOR's leverage came from their control over the oil field.
and the GNA's leverage was that it was internationally recognized and could legally sell the oil.
GNA leader Fayez Al-Saraj and H.O.R. leader Shaleefa seemed to be developing cooperative relations,
and in March of 2019, they were supposed to have a national unity conference,
but then the H-O-R tried to take Tripoli.
Whoopsy. So they kind of had to postpone that conference.
The resulting fighting led to the H-O-R-taking Sirti,
a major city between Libya's east and west halves.
With Turkish support, the GNA successfully repelled the H-O-R from Nair Tripoli,
and the situation was stabilized with a battle line just east of Sirti in 2020.
Yeah.
Not just Turkish support.
Turkey deployed the Syrian National Army,
aka the TFSA, the Turkish Free Syrian Army.
They are widely believed to be rebadged Islamist from previous.
iterations of various Islamist groups in Syria that Turkey has formed into kind of its own proxy force.
I mean, I'm sure if you go to their Wikipedia page, there are like 17 million different
war crimes listed.
Like, they are well known for their affinity for war crimes, yeah.
I could imagine.
The fact that Turkey, Turkey's back in them tells me everything I need to know, I think.
Yeah, right.
Yeah.
And they're considered like a deniable proxy, right?
Like, they could be like, Turkey can be like, oh, well, that wasn't us.
That was these Syrian guys who we happened to arm and equip and run air support for.
Yeah.
What is their situation now, no, the Turkey is kind of back in the new government in Syria?
They have largely been folded into the STG's armed forces.
So, like, Abu Hamza is, I think, a general or a brigadier.
I can't quite remember his rank.
But it's a guy who has been widely condemned is now a military officer within their
the STG's Ministry of Defense.
Huh. Okay.
So a more accurate description then would be that Turkey sent their war criminal proxies
to support the GNA in repelling the HOR from there Tripoli.
Yeah.
And the situation stabilized with a battle line just east of 30 in 2020.
And after other attempts to reach an agreement failed, they agreed to share oil revenue,
establish a plummeting ceasefire, and get both Turkish.
forces and Russian mercenaries out of the country. So the second civil war was officially over in
October 2020. According to reporting by Al Jazeera, the UN initiated a new attempt at a unifying
government in 2021, which was approved originally by both rival parliaments, leading to the establishment
of the interim government of national unity, or GNU, in March 2021, thus replacing the previously
the UN-backed GNA.
So we went from GNA to G&U.
But then the GNU would be opposed by the H-O-R, which withdrew from the GNU in September
of 2021 and established the government of national stability, or GNS, in March 22.
So the GNA was replaced by the GNU, and the GNU was now opposed by the GNS.
And thus, the country remains split in two up to today between the UN-Based.
back to GnU and the HOR slash Libyan National Army back to GNS.
And in all of this chaos, people on the ground have been suffering.
They've been suffering human rights abuses, disappearances, up to recently, the
GNU imposed a morality police, and there have been numerous reports about open slave markets
in Libya, where migrant black Africans are auctioned to the highest bidder.
This is a result of human trafficking and debt bondage, so not exactly the same.
as chattel slavery, but the experience and racial undertones are all too familiar.
The suffering in Libya has also spread beyond its borders. Following Gaddafi's fall,
the weapons of his military stockpiles ended up in the hands of militants across the Sahel region
of Africa and even in Syria. You remember in my episode on the situation in Nigeria, some of those
weapons ended up in the hands of Boko Haram and other Islamic militant groups in the region,
Pulani herdsmen and so on. Tragically, because Libya just can't seem to catch a break at all.
September 23 also saw catastrophic floods devastating the country. The hurricane strong storm
Daniel caused two dams to burst in the coastal city of Dernar, which is within Jainas territory
in eastern Libya. The flooding killed at least four.
thousand people, though potentially even more, left thousands missing and displaced more than
40,000 others.
The nation still roared by civil war and still unrecovered from the devastation of the NATO
bombing campaign surely could have mustered a more adequate response to the tragedy, if not
for those conditions.
In fact, it is theorized that the tragedy could have been avoided altogether, because, according
to reports by the Middle East eye, a Turkish company was supposed to rehabilitate the failed
dams, but their works were reportedly interrupted by the 2011 uprising and subsequent civil
war. Yeah. It's always the cost of war that we don't count, right? Like, if you look at the
2023 earthquake that killed people in Syria and Turkey, right? Like, undoubtedly, that would
have done a lot less damage. If it hadn't been for the fact that war had been raging in those
places for so long, so like everything else got put on hold, right, all the normal infrastructure, repair
and insight that you would expect had to stop because of that war and that made things like
the earthquake worse.
Yeah.
I don't think the people who rose up against Gaddafi and fought and died back in February
of 2011 had sought this outcome.
Unfortunately, in a world dictated by the whims of imperialist followers, this was the end of their
actions.
I don't want people to get it twisted though
because in the time since
as people have observed the devastation brought by these civil wars
there has been an effort to most whitewash Gaddafi
and to limit our vision of possibilities
to a binary of either perpetual Gaddafi rule
on one end or perpetual civil war on the other end
those are not the only possibilities
So we've discussed the legacy of NATO intervention, which deserves condemnation, in this episode.
And it should be an indication that who the Western invasions and wars are not going to liberate anyone.
Yeah.
But aside from that accurate analysis of Libya, since the fall of Gaddafi, I want to bring in some conversation on demand himself in the next episode.
Until then, all power to all the people.
This has been It Could Happen here.
I've been Andra Siege.
Peace.
It Could Happen here is a production of Cool Zone Media.
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