It Could Happen Here - Operation 1027 and the Mandalay PDF

Episode Date: November 15, 2023

 James talks to Billy Ford of the United States Institute of Peace and Sayar Mohn Tine of the Mandalay PDF about the huge changes in the conflict in Myanmar and how the PDFs and EROS built an alliance that put the junta on the back foot.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hello everyone, it's me, James, and I'm joining you today for another long series of the little recordings where I ask you to give us your money. Once again, I'm asking you to support the mutual aid work being done at the border. I'm recording this in November, and this week we have terrible weather forecasts that will make conditions in Hukumba extremely dangerous for people who are detained out there by the Department of Homeland Security. It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that people's lives will be at risk and that the important mutual aid work that's already being done will only become more important as we get rain, we get snow and we get cold temperatures

and people continue to be detained without shelter, food, water or adequate clothing. If you would like to support those efforts, you can find the way to do so at linktree.com. There's a dot before the ee, so it's linktr.ee. I'll also post a link on my Twitter if you'd like to find it there. Thank you. In the weeks since the end of October, the conflict landscape in Myanmar has significantly changed. The junta and its alignment issues have taken unprecedented losses. The PDF, as well as several ethnic revolutionary organizations, have swept across the country seizing bases, weapons, tanks, and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing, I spoke to Sayar Montine, a leader in the Mandalay PDF, and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace.

What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights on the situation on the ground with the Mandalay PDF. You'll hear more from Sayar Montine in another episode that we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his personal on-the-ground perspective now as well. First, I'll let Nain Nain, the translator from Mandalay PDF, introduce our guest. Oh yeah, Nafuzalo Joloyas. He is the leader of the commanding and cohesion team.

And you can also say that he's the leader of our organization. To start with, I asked Billy to explain to you the developments in the conflict in the last few weeks. I mean, it's really been just the past, what is it, since the 27th, so 13 days, kind of a level change in the conflict trajectory. Whereas I'd say, I mean, you got coup February 1st, 2021, major military resistance operations began September 7th, 2021. And frankly, since then, it's been more or less incremental change. essentially been small pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then things changed radically on October 27th, when, whereas before the 27th, you had a range of armed stakeholders involved in the conflict, some under the deposed National Unity Government, as well as what's called the K3C, which is four of the biggest ethnic armed organizations. But a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen the level change in the military

balance of power was because of the absence of some of the biggest and most powerful armed organizations that had more or less stayed on the sidelines. I mean, they were arming and training resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the 27th, that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated attacks in northern Shan state on the border with China and have since the 27th, we're talking to you on the 10th here of November, 150 posts have been taken, seven towns are now under full resistance control. Seven others by my counter under partial resistance control.

Um, and the operation in Northern Shan state on the border has effectively spurred resistance, um, operations in other parts of the country. And so now you essentially have operations in all corners of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns in Sagine along the Indian border. You've seen the K&U taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the Thai border. Towns on the logistics corridor on the Thai border, Kareni groups have moved into Mesa on the Thai border with Kareni state. The Chin National Front has initiated attacks in Palatwa and southern Chin state near the Bangladesh-India border. trajectory of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's like this is a slow burn that could last a long time to a we need to start thinking about potentially the day after. I mean, nothing is a given and the Myanmar military has been resilient in the past,

but it does feel like this is a historic moment in a lot of ways. And the military is weakened in a way that we've really never seen in the history of the country. I asked Montiné to explain a little about how he got to a point where his force, who hadn't fought at all in 2021, were able to fight alongside the EROs and deal a serious defeat to the junta so in 2010 21 march um he decided to go for the armed revolutions and then he started reading the books about the military and tactics and then warfare things and then he said that he is still learning and reading from the books about the military tactics

reading from the books about the military tactics till now. And one more thing is we are having some problems about the other people's defense force PDF that they don't have the well forming and then they don't follow the code of conduct or something like that. So we organize well that we won't become a bloodthirsty organization, but just to fight for the military coup. And one more thing is we are following the 2COC, which is a code of conduct and a chain of commands, before we form up as these military organizations.

A number of the EROs are acronyms you won't have heard before, and that's because they haven't been part of the conflict before. So I asked Billy to explain who the EROs in the North were, and how and why they'd entered the fight now. Sure. So the Arakan Army is a Rakhine ethnic-based armed organization. They're based on the China border. But for those who know Myanmar geography, Rakhine State is actually on the complete other side of the country. the complete other side of the country. But this is like many newer armed organizations, they were essentially incubated by some of the longer term armed organizations. In this case,

the Kachin Independence Army helped for the emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in the past 10 years into one of the strongest armed stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy government, they were in intense fighting with the Myanmar military. And Aung San Suu Kyi strongly supported the Myanmar military's operations against the AA. And that kind of built some bad blood, as you might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy. And that bad blood has made it difficult to build alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizations that involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that the AA is operating in two places, Rakhine State and in northern Shan State and Kachin State.

Also, actually, it's a guy now. But and they're an extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well-armed. The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. National Liberation Army. This is an ethnic-based army in northern Shan State that also is a relatively newer armed organization. It's a pretty complex military environment in northern Shan State because the TNLA are often in tension with other ethnic groups that are in Shan State, including the RCSS or the Shan State Army South, which is competing for control in other parts of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the TNLA and the SSPP, which is another northern Shan Army that's closely aligned with the Wa and Chinese. So that's a pretty complex array of relationships there. But the TNLA is also an increasingly powerful armed organization, one that administers territory and has also been locked in conflict with the Myanmar military for some time.

The last group is the MNDAA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. This is a Kokong ethnic based armed organization that for a long time controlled a territory along the China border. along the China border in 2009, Min Aung Hlaing, who is now the commander in chief and the head of the SAC, he essentially was leading commands in the Northeast and led operations to push the MNDAA out of that territory and replace it with a border guard force of another ethnic, a Kokong ethnic army.

And we can get back to that, but that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the support of the Myanmar military. They're commissioned under the Myanmar military. They're commissioned under the Myanmar military. But I think a key point here is that it's very personal with the MNDAA and this border guard force and Min Aung Hlaing. And so the MNDAA is an organization that has been pushing for a very long time to retake this territory, and particularly this city of Laokai. And so that three constitutes the Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this

region, including the United Wa State Army, which is the largest armed organization in Myanmar, or non-state armed organization, as well which is very closely tied with the chinese um i mean they use chinese currency they speak chinese um they fully administer their territory into autonomously um and then the other organizations that are relevant here is the national democratic alliance army ndaa which is essentially you can think of it as closely tied with the Wa and the Chinese. And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin ethnic based armed organization, very much founded as a social services. I mean, it's kind of got a different identity from some of these other groups. I mean, it's kind of got a different identity from some of these other groups. It's very much like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. There's kind of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah, all to say it's a highly complex array of actors with different intentions and motivations. But in this particular case, they came together to, or at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together to launch this coordinated attack.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army are the group who received many of the young people of Mandalay who went on to form the Mandalay PDF. Those young people started out as a strike force within Mandalay but their only weapons were Molotov cocktails and every action they took

was a risk to their whole families if they were caught. By March, a few weeks into the revolution, Montigny and others took to the mountains with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army to learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said, he had no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games. I asked him how it felt to be joining a group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there. Before we formed Manley PDF, we started as a MSGF, which is Manley Special Task Force. It was the first training for our organizations. And at the time, we only have some handmade weapons

like Molotov, but we really don't use handmade guns. But after the support of TNLA, we got the automatic rifles with the help of our alliance. And at first, when we act as a MSTF, a Manly Special Task Force, we restrict the rules for not attacking to the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after that, we start using the handmade weapons

just like Molotov. We didn't use any handguns at the time but after that we try and we contact with the tnla we have uh we now have the automatic rifles and then others uh missiles or something like that now so when he decided to contact with the TNLA, TNN Nationals, what he expected were nothing else but some few problems about the racist because of most of the ethnic groups, most of them they hate ethnic groups, most of them, they hate Burmese people. And they even call the Burmese army.

So he was expecting that we will be having racist problems. But when he actually reached to the Tien region, he found out that there is no hatred to the Burmese people. And there was no problem about the racist problems. Yeah, he also thought that it's because of the communication between Burmese people and Palawan racist. Because Palawan people, they provide tea leaves and other things to the Burmese people. And then they make some trading and then they do some business with Burmese people. So there was no problem about that.

But the only other thing was about the weather because of the rough weather in the mountains it's a very different weather from the like manly region it's very cool for the people from the uh manly region because our manly spot yeah and uh in mountain is very cold in here so we are still having problems about the weather problems but now we are getting used to it and he said that he is also surprised that tnla the national liberation army is a well-formed military and then they are also following the code of conduct and then they follow in a democracy way and then most of the leaders from the TNLA have the liberal ideas and then they also want to welcome to the young leaders from the revolution forces so he was surprised about that. Billy told me that this same dynamic had occurred all over the country.

And this is probably a good time to remind listeners that we've covered the formation of the PDFs in our two previous series about Myanmar. And if you haven't had the time to listen to those, I really hope you do, because it'll make this one a lot more interesting. And this one probably won't make much sense without it. Yeah, and I think this is really a key dynamic. And we can come back to the conversation maybe about day after or the political dimensions of the conflict. But there's, frankly, before the coup, these sorts of coordinations would be like incomprehensible. I mean, you'd see the Arakan Army, the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, all of them have deep connections with mostly Bamar ethnic PDS, some of whom work in coordination with the National Unity government, some which are slightly more independent. But this is an inter-ethnic collaboration that's very novel and demonstrates a shift in inter-ethnic and inter-communal dynamics in the country that is very positive in a lot of ways. in a lot of ways. So yeah, the TNLA has been providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay. The KIA has been providing weapons and training and tactical and strategic support

to PDFs in Sagain. The Arakan Army has been, maybe more than any group providing tactical support and weapons and training to PDFs in Bogo, Eorwadi, Magwe, and now more recently in Sagin. So really the Burman heartland of the country. are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with Bumar ethnic PDFs. So I think the main question here is like, what does this mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the future of the country? Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in the absence of the Myanmar military fracturing communities and so on? But yeah, it's a radical shift in those relationships. Billy also shared that, as we've heard from every single PDF fighter we've talked to, their time alongside the EROs as comrades in arms has changed the way they see

ethnicity in the future of their country. I mean, I think this is also manifest in a lot of the research that my organization, the U.S. Institute of Peace, has been doing among the general public. I mean, we've done three different studies over the past year to assess inter-criminal relations in the post-coup period and to kind of see how relations have shifted because there's a really dominant narrative that Myanmar is kind of irreconcilably fractured and that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities, not their national identities and so on. And frankly, all of our research has pointed to a similar trend, which is, one, interethnic relations are considerably better. There's greater solidarity. found that national identity, as in being from Myanmar, was more important to respondents than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives about Myanmar. And yeah, I mean,

I think there's been considerable gains in inter-ethnic relations. And it's, you know, it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here, whether, you know, the improved interethnic relations are spurring greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistance and governance and so on. But it does feel like there's a major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind of military shifts that are taking place. in addition to these kind of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I think that the research we've done has found there to be sort of extremist nationalist perspectives still remain. But that the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced in large part because the public's vulnerability to incitement or to highly divisive political speech, most of which came from Myanmar military-run troll farms, is much, I mean, there's much more resilience to that form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's still a lot of work, obviously, to do to build intercommunal cohesion and understanding.

But that the likelihood, you know, for example, in a post-SAC world that you will be, you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much lower than a lot of people are presuming that it would be. lower than a lot of people are presuming that it would be, that the actual horizontal relationships across communities are not as bad as many presume. Actually, one of the surveys that we did found that Myanmar's intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of the fact that it's really vertical dynamics, like violent political speech, highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence. And so that those on that dimension, at least at the person to person intercommunal relation or relationships, I think there is there is a lot to be a a lot of like positive narratives there talking of positive

narratives here are some positive narratives about products and or services welcome i'm danny thrill won't you join me at the fire and dare enter? Nocturnum, Tales from the Shadows, presented by iHeart and Sonora. An anthology of modern-day horror stories inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. I know you. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturnal Tales from the Shadows

as part of my Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how Tex Elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, BetRothLine is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech from an industry veteran with nothing to lose.

This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel winning economists to leading journalists in the field. And I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough, so join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app,

Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba.

He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh. And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian.

Elian Gonzalez. At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzalez wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story, as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Another aspect of the conflict that has played out in Operation 1027 is the role of China

and the massive crime empires that the junta has facilitated along the country's borders in recent years. I asked Billy to explain some of those. So this has become the major political dynamic between China and the SAC over the past year, dynamic between China and the SAC over the past year, frankly. I mean, it's essentially what we've seen is the emergence of these massive scam operations that use foreign labor that's trafficked into Myanmar into areas controlled primarily by Myanmar military commissioned border guard forces. So these are commissioned under the Myanmar military, which is a very key point in most cases. And they are running scam operations at a global level that are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which is long-term relationship building. And then you're, yeah, theft at a large scale. This is like, These are sizable losses from individuals. So last year, for example,

to give you a sense of that scale, China lost $20 billion to these scam operations, $20 billion. Yeah. And the United States lost $2 billion on scam operations emerging from Myanmar. I mean, on scam operations emerging from Myanmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild. I mean, there's more than 100,000 people being held in scam zones in Myanmar from 46 different countries. I mean, this is a total global operation because, I mean, this emerged actually before COVID.

I mean, in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, and other places where there's, you know, rule of law is dubious, they have initiated kind of casino operations, which are illegal in China, and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID, when China, a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back to mainland China, these criminal enterprises were short on labor. And so they shifted their approach. I mean, they shifted to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at a global scale, finding labor from around the world, you know, using not low-skilled labor. I mean, these are high-skilled kind of middle-class workers seeking employment in the

tech industry or some other scheme that eventually they're held at gunpoint and forced to scam their co-nationals. So that's a little bit of background. So this is happening in Kokong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories and in the NDAA territories. The largest areas are actually on the Thai-Burma border with the Karen border guard force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially, over the past year, the Chinese have noticed not only the financial losses, but the potential for social instability. Because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know, these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the border in Myanmar for high paying tech jobs, and then being held at gunpoint. So you have mothers on social media

saying, I haven't seen my son in three weeks, and he's being held in a scam operation. So this is deleterious at two levels, the financial scam losses and the trafficking. And it's all being run by border guard forces that are commissioned by the Myanmar military. by border guard forces that are commissioned by the Myanmar military. And yet, you see countries around the world, including China, going to the Myanmar military and saying, please shut this down. And of course, the Myanmar military has no intention to shut this down, because these scam operations are financing the border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance. So they need the border guard forces. And so they will never shut down the scam operations. And so what ensued was essentially earlier this year, I mean, the Chinese came to the Myanmar military and said,

we will support you at every level. We will prop you up, provide you weapons, provide you assistance if you can demonstrate the capacity to govern, the capacity to provide stability on our border, the capacity to provide to allow us to pursue our economic interests. And the SAC has completely failed this test. Scam operations have exploded. China's economic interests, the Chao Piu Special Economic Zone remains in an impact assessment phase. The Lepidong Copper Mine is non-functional. The Miezo Dam is non-functional. They're just not getting out of the SAC what they wanted.

And so there was a meaningful shift recently, it appears. recently, it appears. And I think by all indicators that we can see the Chinese greenlit Operation 1027, that they at least did not stand in their way. And you'll see from the MNDAA, I mean, they really were the leaders of the operation that in the statements that they issued about the operation itself. And when they articulated their objectives, the first objective was to shut down scam operations. that we're a responsible, good faith actor that will shut down these enterprises that are trafficking your citizens and scamming the public out of billions of dollars. So this has become a really dominant dynamic in the relationship between the Chinese and the SAC. It leads to a really weakened position for the SAC if they're not being propped up in the way that they have been for so long by the Chinese. We'll have to see how this unfolds,

but it's not looking good for the military. When we do see how this unfolds, it'll be people like the Mandalay PDF who we see leading the charge for a new and democratic Myanmar. We don't exactly know what that means, but I asked them if the weapons seized in Operation 1027 would allow them to arm more fighters and get there faster. We are also now recruiting new recruits, but we will have to recruit until the center is gone. And we also

need more soldiers to form up the better army than the center. After we won, even after we won, we are going to need some more human resources to form up the better army than the

Malay army, you know. And for the arms and ammunitions, we got a lot of arms and ammunitions from the Malay army, but we, it's, they use a different type of the ammunitions, and then, because we, it's they use a different type of the ammunitions and then because we, for example, we use like AK types, we have the different

ammunitions. So, it is not very possible to arm the better weapons from the the Miao Lai Army. We only use some of the weapons like for the artillery or something like that but that's only a few we got from them. What we really need is about the

better artillery or SAM or something like that for the airstrikes. So, yeah, it's not very useful for us from the arms and ammunition we got from the Malay Army. He said that the main points in the armed revolution is about to capture the important points, not to capture all the cities or something like that. Like to capture the enemy's headquarters or the important places. We are going to need more plants and he said that he's clear about that. I asked Billy what he thought we could expect in the new Myanmar.

As he points out here, everything every so-called analyst has said has been proven wrong by the revolution. They have exceeded the wildest expectations of experts in London and Washington, D.C. And where they go next is really up to them. Good question. And frankly, I don't have a lot of information about that. I mean, you've seen pictures over the past 12 days of the as the resistance has taken 150 posts they've definitely captured a lot of um heavy munitions and artillery but yeah i'm not sure service to air capabilities i i mean i think the the fact that the myanmar military is not able to push the resistance out of urban areas. I mean, this is the first time really that the resistance has moved into urban areas

and held them, including in Tegayen. I mean, Kolin has been, they're holding it. And so, I mean, that seems to be an indication to me that the SAC's capability is weakening. capabilities weakening. I mean, yeah, their access to foreign currency and to purchase weapons is highly constrained now. I mean, their primary providers, Russia and China, you know, one's fighting their own war and the other is kind of is a little bit more skeptical as to whether they deserve their support. I mean, just last week, the U.S. initiated new sanctions on the Myanmar oil and gas enterprise. They provided half a billion dollars in revenue for the junta per year. Yeah, that's a major issue for them accessing U.S. dollars, which they need to buy weapons. I mean, the Thais can no longer pay the Myanmar military in USD,

and the Myanmar military doesn't want baht. So they're literally negotiating barter agreements where they, you know, sell gas for material goods. But now you have the resistance controlling, you know, part of Kalkarik on the Asia Highway into Thailand. They control the borders or the parting to in a way they hadn't before. Even this bartering or material trade is less viable. I think they're just really asset constrained. It does, just the fact that they haven't been able to retake these critical logistic cups. I mean, the border crossings that the resistance has controlled constitute 40% of the overland trade between China and Myanmar.

It's like, you know, it's like $4 billion in value that's being, you know, that tax loss for the SAC. It's considerable sac it's considerable it's considerable losses there as well and how long they can really hold out and maintain their air assets is really questionable particularly since they've had to massively diversify their air asset purchase which really makes it more complex to service planes and helicopters. So, yeah, I mean, I think I'm not sure that the resistance has much more capacity in service to air or air defense, but it does seem like the SAC's capacity to inflict atrocities in this way has also been constrained.

Yeah, it sort of flies in the face of every sort of like analytical idea about the assets that you need to have in order to be successful in one of these like they've they've really proved a lot of people wrong you know in a really impressive way um i know you have to go i want to ask one more real quick um the uh these towns did the sac pull out of of the towns or did they like fight house to house or like how did they or did it vary across the country? Well, I mean, the SAC was, you know, in their barracks themselves. I mean, in these towns, it's a national uprising. The public is, you know, opposed to the presence.

This is an occupying force yeah um and so yeah it's just moving in and capturing military posts and as one person uh resistance fighter indicated essentially you fire your gun in the air and they lay down their weapons which is more you know an indication of of where the military stands um and the support these highly isolated, I mean, this is a fractured light infantry force that's dispersed at posts all over the country. And, you know, they're resupplying from the Northwest Command in Moiwa to towns within 30 minutes drive by helicopter because they can't move. So there's just not logistic support to these posts. And so, yeah, you've got folks in there that just the will to fight is pretty small. Morale is

shrinking from a very low base. And so I think the general pattern is just resistance taking military barracks and posts rather than having to go house to house. I mean, there's villages and towns where there's these groups called Pusati that are like military aligned militias. But yeah, that's not really, you know, a nationwide fighting force. And it's in most cases, it really is just the resistance capturing posts and pushing out military personnel. And I mean, there was a,

they're also using drones to a high degree of effectiveness. They recently killed a Colonel who was on, he was about to be become a brigadier general, um, the highest ranking person to have been killed in battle from the memory military, um, through a drone strike in Northern, uh, Shun state, I believe for Kachin. Um, and I think that, yeah, the, the resistance drone capabilities have also increased considerably. And this is also an area where you see NUG collaborating a lot with the EROs. So, yeah, it's a barracks, you know, Myanmar military personnel, and they just, in many cases, just lay down their arms

because it's just morale is so low and the probability of them to be able to fend off inde morale is so low and the probability of them to be able to fend off indefinitely is when they have the public against them and a resistance movement against them it's just really a challenging set of conditions for them welcome i'm danny thrill won't you join me at the fire and dare enter Nocturnum, Tales from the Shadows, presented by iHeart and Sonora. An anthology of modern day horror stories inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters

to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. I know you. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturnal Tales from the Shadows as part of my Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech

from an industry veteran with nothing to lose. This season, I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists to leading journalists in the field, and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse and naming and shaming those responsible. Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology. I just hate the people in charge and want them to get back to building things that actually do things to help real people. I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough,

so join me every week to understand what's happening in the tech industry and what could be done to make things better. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Check out betteroffline.com. On Thanksgiving Day, 1999, a five-year-old boy floated alone in the ocean. He had lost his mother trying to reach Florida from Cuba. He looked like a little angel. I mean, he looked so fresh.

And his name, Elian Gonzalez, will make headlines everywhere. Elian Gonzalez. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian. Elian Gonzalez.

At the heart of the story is a young boy and the question of who he belongs with. His father in Cuba. Mr. Gonzales wanted to go home and he wanted to take his son with him. Or his relatives in Miami. Imagine that your mother died trying to get you to freedom. At the heart of it all is still this painful family separation. Something that as a Cuban, I know all too well. Listen to Chess Peace, the Elian Gonzalez story,

as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We don't know exactly what the future of Myanmar is, but it took an interesting turn in the last few weeks with the KNDF, that's the Karenny National Defence Force, 5th Battalion, issuing a statement of solidarity with the people of Rojava. And the people of Rojava, in the form of the YPG and the YPJ, their defense units of men and women respectively, recording a response at great risk during the ongoing Groen campaign, expressing their solidarity and support for the revolutionary people of Myanmar. Something we'll cover in greater

detail in another episode, but it's yet another illustration of how the revolutionary people of Myanmar have continued to defy everyone's expectations about how and where they will go next, and how they've managed to dream up a vision for a more equal and just future, even as they face the injustice and inequality of fighting a war the world doesn't seem to care about without a single dollar of international military aid and little support other than strongly worded letters from the UN at sporadic intervals. As we come to the end of the episode, I asked Sayar Montine if he had anything else he would like to share with our listeners. Okay, he said that if he is able to talk, he wants them to know that we are not the white people we most of them are educated and we are only fighting for the democracy

but in some international news uh there will be some news that uh like uh pdf the revolution forces are killing each other or something like that. But it's like not fully correct. Maybe some, a few will be doing that, but most of us are not doing that way. It's just a propaganda from the male-led company, you know. He also said that we are no more expecting for the help from the other countries. We will be fighting our own and with our spirit in.

And he also wanted to say that to the US government or the King of England or the other countries' authorities that we are not wild ones. We are educated and then we are just fighting to get the democracy back to our country. He's using a little bit strong words, you know. He said that if other governments are not helping us because they can't get any benefits from helping us, even if they don't want to help us, just don't look at us like we are the wild ones. We will be trying to get the level of the other countries. We will always be trying for that if you have any chance to speak out in a seminar or the workshops or any other things or any meetings he wants you to tell the news about uh killing each other of our revolution forces is just a propaganda of SAC. If there is no more SAC, there will be no issues like that anymore.

Most of the issues are just because of SAC. And then they spread some rumors about that and then fake news, you know. If you guys can come and visit us and then you can see how we treat people and then how we respect the civilians and then how we follow code of conduct in person. If you want to follow the Madeleine PDF,

you can search them on Facebook where they post regular updates. We'll include the link in the show notes for you. If you want to hear more from Billy, I'll let him tell you how. Sure, yeah. I mean, we put out a paper at USIP.org yesterday on the relationship between

the scam operations and the conflict dynamics. I'm putting one out probably next week on the day after, quote unquote conflict dynamics. I'm putting one out probably next week on the day after, quote unquote, dynamics, summarizing some of our research. I'm on Twitter at B-I-L-L-E-E, the number four, the letter D.

I try to stay up on some of the conflict dynamics there. But yeah, the USIP website's where we publish most of our stuff. In closing, I just want to share how much hope I found in the conflict in Myanmar in recent weeks. At a time when the world seems so full of cruelty,

it's inspiring to see people relatively unified, committed to respecting life and civilians, and succeeding against all the odds. This doesn't mean they don't need help, they do desperately. And I hope that as people continue to advocate to civilians in Gaza, they can include civilians and revolutionaries from Myanmar in their demands going forward. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com,

or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can find sources for It Could Happen Here updated monthly at coolzonemedia.com slash sources. Thanks for listening. You should probably keep your lights on for Nocturnal Tales from the Shadow. Join me, Danny Trails, and step into the flames of fright. An anthology podcast of modern day horror stories inspired by the most terrifying legends and lore of Latin America. Listen to Nocturnal on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second

season digging into tech's elite and how they've turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of techative AI to the destruction of Google search. Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech brought to you by an industry veteran with nothing to lose. Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts from. Hey, I'm Jacqueline Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series, Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature.

Black Lit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while running errands or at the end of a busy day. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Listen to Black Lit on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. AT&T. Connecting changes everything.