It Could Happen Here - What Happens to Gaza Under Trump
Episode Date: November 12, 2024Robert sits down and walks through the reactions to Trump's victory among Gazans, and the different possibilities for what comes next. Sources: Palestinians dismayed by Trump's win, their leaders urge... peace | Reuters Gaza’s Cease-Fire Talks Will Probably Wait Until After Trump’s Inauguration - The New York Times ‘Israel will keep invading – with more ease’: Gaza dreads Trump presidency | Features News | Al Jazeera Trump Wants to End Gaza War on Israel’s Terms Trump's election promises even more pain for Palestinians U.S. presidential election: Why Trump's phone call with Netanyahu is so alarming. Israeli Officials Embrace Trump Victory, Despite His Unpredictability - The New York Times Donald Trump uses expletive to attack ex-ally Benjamin Netanyahu No guarantees Trump will give Netanyahu all he wantsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast, and we're kicking off our second season digging into tech's elite and how they've turned Silicon Valley into a playground for billionaires.
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Hello, everyone, and welcome back to It Could Happen Here. I'm Robert Evans, and, you know,
along with all of our other correspondents, I'm looking forward to what we can expect from the Trump administration, which is a broad and far-reaching question given the ambitions that Trump and the others who I
think will be involved in this new administration have already expressed. And the elevator pitch
theme of today's episode is what's going to happen in Gaza once Trump is president again?
Will things get better or worse? Obviously, the expectation
is worse. I think that's where certainly the safe money goes if you're putting money on this.
But the short answer to that question is no one fully knows. Now, the first thing that I did when
trying to prepare for this episode was track down as many articles as I could that included
interviews with Gazans about their expectations. And those expectations were largely negative, but a little more mixed than you might
expect. A Reuters reporter interviewed Abu Osama, living in Khan Yunus in the southern Gaza Strip.
He called Trump's election a, quote, new catastrophe in the history of the Palestinian people,
adding, despite the destruction,
death, and displacement that we have witnessed, what is coming will be more difficult. It will be politically devastating. This essentially agrees with what a Palestinian from Beit Lahiya
in the northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jarad, told Al Jazeera, quote, Trump and Netanyahu are an
evil alliance against the Palestinians,
and our fate will be very difficult, not only in the fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns.
This is a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse Netanyahu's free hand regarding the
possibility of the return of settlements to the Gaza Strip, and even the displacement of large
numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return to the north, and now all of our hopes have been shattered.
And unfortunately, Jarad's fears here have been immediately proven well-founded.
On November 6th, as the rest of the world reeled from Trump's victory,
IDF Brigadier General Itzik Cohen told Israeli reporters,
there is no intention of allowing the residents of the
northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes. Humanitarian aid would only be allowed to enter
through the south. His justification was that there are no more civilians in the north.
Reporting from The Guardian interviewed several international humanitarian law experts,
and the members of that likely dying field described Israeli actions here
as war crimes. The forcible transfer of civilian populations and the use of food as a weapon are
supposed to be banned. Despite this, we can safely assume that there will be no serious consequences
as a result of any of this. Now, the timing of this announcement was predominant, and it is not
unreasonable to suggest that Israel might not have been as bold as they're currently being if Harris had won.
Another Gazan, 70-year-old Dr. Zakia Hilal, told Al Jazeera,
It is true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel,
but some are more severe and more intense than others, like Trump.
You can find numerous Gazans expressing
feelings along these lines if you read long enough, but you will also find a number who feel like
what's coming won't be worse, or at least won't be very different from what they've already endured.
Jihad Malaka, a researcher at the Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not
expect Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's in this regard.
Trump uses rough tools, and Biden and the Democrats resort to soft tools, but the politics are the same.
Biden did not make any decision in favor of the Palestinians and was unable to achieve a ceasefire.
He did not change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor Trump at all.
The positions of the two administrations regarding Israel are the same and identical,
and they put its interests above all other considerations.
You can also find some Gazans
who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration.
Reuters spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza,
Khaled D'Souza, who told their reporter,
I think Donald Trump, if he wins,
he promised the Muslim people in America
to stop the war in Gaza.
We hope that happens.
And it's not necessarily absurd to hope
that there may be some positive effects here.
Trump has said many horrible things about Palestinians,
obviously, several weeks before the election.
He had a phone call with Netanyahu
that may have been a violation of the Logan Act,
although laws don't really matter anymore. Here's how Slate.com summarized what happened in that
call. According to Trump, the Israeli leader said he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning to
keep troops out of Rafah in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted in the killing of Hamas
leader Yahya Senwar in a shootout in the area. Trump also said Netanyahu asked him for advice on how
to respond to Iran's missile attack on Israel, to which Trump said he responded, do whatever you
have to do. Now, that's a dire sign, and it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump regime
won't restart the sale and shipment of specific munitions that Biden banned for export to Israel.
This July, Biden halted the shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to the IDF
because, quote,
they cannot be used in Gaza or any populated area
without causing great human tragedy and damage.
Now, the fact that munitions like this will very likely be used is hideous,
and I think it's extremely unlikely that we do not see
an immediate rise in the death toll.
But at the same time,
Israel's extant acts have caused great human tragedy and damage.
The munitions they have have already been responsible
for calamitous death and destruction on a fairly wide scale.
So where's the cause for any optimism on this at all?
It comes from Trump's own self-interest.
As Khalid D'Souza noted,
Trump ran promising to end wars.
This means he does have some vested interest,
even if only in his own ego,
in forcing Netanyahu to draw things
to a close in short order.
And there is indeed reporting
that Trump has told Netanyahu
to wrap things up by January
so that he can take office
with an end to the conflict
and ideally use that as a way to
kind of bolster his early popularity and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes
he wants to make. Now, the fact that Trump is pushing Netanyahu on ending things in January
doesn't mean a sudden peaceful ceasefire. For one thing, nothing is going to happen in the months
between then and now to reduce the level of bloodshed.
And almost every likely theoretical ends with Israel massively escalating violence and using new, more destructive weapons before bringing an end to their campaign.
But it does mean that Trump might be able to pressure Bibi to bring things to an end.
There's a good article on this in the BBC.
No guarantees Trump will give Netanyahu all he wants.
Now in that piece,
Mideast correspondent Lucy Williamson writes,
Donald Trump's first term in office was exemplary
as far as Israel is concerned, said Michael Oren,
a former Israeli ambassador to the United States.
The hope is that he'll revisit that,
but we have to be very clear-sighted
about who Donald Trump is and what he stands for.
Firstly, he said,
the former president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive. Trump has urged Israel to
finish the war in Gaza quickly. He's also not a big fan of Israel's settlements in the occupied
West Bank, said Ambassador Oren, and has opposed the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts
of it. Both of these policies could put him in conflict with far-right parties
in Netanyahu's current governing coalition,
who have threatened to bring down the government
if the prime minister pursues policies they reject.
Michael Oren believes Netanyahu
will need to take a different approach
with the incoming president.
If Donald Trump comes to office in January and says,
okay, you have a week to finish the war,
Netanyahu is going to have to respect that.
And we'll continue talking about what this means, but first, here's some ants.
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So, it is possible that we will see a quick end to the violence in January, and perhaps a quicker one than we would have seen under Harris.
means that we will probably see a massive escalation in violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out of northern Gaza and end the conflict with a large slice of Gaza
permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and handed over to Israeli settlers.
There is no version of what comes next that is not a calamity to the Palestinian people.
Now, the signs from within the Israeli government on what a new Trump administration means for them
are certainly bullish, you could say.
And reading these tea leaves
provides very little fuel for optimism.
Itmar Ben-Gvir, the Minister of National Security,
posted yes with several S's
and an emoji of a flexed bicep in a post on social media
when the first good returns started coming in for Trump.
On the day of the election itself,
and a sign of confidence in the coming results,
Bibi Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yov Galant,
who had been his primary point of contact
with the Biden administration.
And it's harder to imagine a much more direct sign
of what he wants to do than that.
Now, I've struggled to present the sweep
of possible results of this, and it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from
Gazans who are plugged into the politics of the region are incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayyad,
an independent researcher in Israeli affairs who currently resides in central Gaza,
told Al Jazeera that he felt Trump's influence
would be entirely negative,
adding that Trump was a, quote,
more dominating figure than Biden,
and his influence would allow Netanyahu to, quote,
conquer Gaza.
Quote, amidst the weakened Palestinian front
and absence of any Arab unity and solidarity,
the whole Palestinian cause faces its worst threat yet. Now, what does bear
watching is the degree to which Bibi might face threats from his own right flank. Netanyahu himself
is almost certainly on the side of doing what will please his patron Trump all the more, and that
would be forcing a quick, violent end to the fighting and taking northern Gaza as the spoils
of war. But this might bring him into conflict with radicals on his own side,
who can't be placated by anything but what they would see as total victory.
In the event Netanyahu feels pushed, it is not impossible that he will wind up in conflict with Trump.
This has happened before, as Bibi's sense of self-preservation led him to take actions that enraged Trump.
The best example of this took place in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election,
if you want to think back to those happier days. Beebe was again the first world leader to call
and offer Biden congratulations on his victory as he was with Trump. This is a habit for the man,
who, among other things, is an expert at toadying for favor with U.S. leaders.
Trump was livid, and he spoke out about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that he believed that he had saved Israel from destruction, and in response, Netanyahu had stabbed him in the back.
I'm going to quote now from an article in the BBC.
Mr. Trump accused Mr. Netanyahu of congratulating too quickly Mr. Trump's successor,
Joe Biden, on winning the 2020 U.S. election. Mr. Trump disputed the election result,
though his claims were never upheld. The first person who congratulated Joe Biden was Bibi,
the man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with. Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has
made a terrible mistake. He was very early, Mr. Trump said,
like earlier than most. I haven't spoken to him since. Fuck him. I actually don't know that he said fuck. The actual text of the article says expletive him, but I'm assuming he said fuck him.
I think that's probably a fair assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence does suggest that
Trump and Bibi don't personally get along, as that quote I just read implies.
Certainly not to the degree that Netanyahu and Biden once did.
Once, I should say.
This may hinge partly on the fact that Trump really only believes in himself and his own benefit,
whereas Joe Biden was a strong and committed believer in Israel
and was willing to take actions against his own political self-interest
in furtherance of that belief, and we've all seen where those actions got him.
Just last December, Trump attacked Netanyahu at an early campaign rally in New York,
saying Bibi had, quote, let us down by pulling Israeli support for the operation that killed
Iranian General Qasem Soleimani at the last minute. He also criticized the Israeli
leader for not being prepared for Hamas's October 7th attack. Now, I want to be clear here that
these divisions between both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches relief
for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term. The immediate and probably long-term future of Gaza is much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago.
The Guardian recently published an article
interviewing former CIA director
and defense secretary Leon Panetta.
He predicted Trump would give Bibi
a blank check for aggression,
which might invite the possibility
of open war with Iran.
Now, that's the kind of thing that can lead one to panic,
especially when you assume a guy like Panetta
is privy to a lot of inside information.
We may not be,
but I'm actually not really sure that he is.
I don't see any evidence from this article
that Panetta is speaking from direct personal knowledge
about extant plans to carry out an attack.
Instead, he quoted Trump's description
of the call that Trump had had with Bibi before the election, telling Netanyahu, do whatever you have to do. So, Leon may just be working from the
same information the rest of us have and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as
sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran because Trump campaigned heavily on ending wars.
And while I don't credit Trump as a particularly honest man, I do think he sees his personal benefit right now in being able to
portray himself as a peacemaker, in part because he has so much domestically he wants to do and
so much else internationally he wants to do, right? Expending a bunch of political capital,
dealing with the kinds of protests and unrest and even anger from his base that a war with Iran
would mean, especially once it gets bogged down in the kind of violence that would come with that,
he may not and likely doesn't see that as being of benefit to him. Now, that doesn't mean it will
never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change. I do foresee some situations in which
Trump might decide that his personal benefit is in there being a wider
ground conflict with Iran that U.S. forces get drawn into. You know, we'll talk a little bit
about some of the possibilities around this. And we're getting outside of the realm of kind of
established fact at this point. But I do think it's worth considering some of this. But first,
consider these ads.
Hey guys, I'm Kate Max.
You might know me from my popular online series,
The Running Interview Show,
where I run with celebrities, athletes,
entrepreneurs, and more.
After those runs, the conversations keep going. That's what my podcast
Post Run High is all about. It's a chance to sit down with my guests and dive even deeper into
their stories, their journeys, and the thoughts that arise once we've hit the pavement together.
You know that rush of endorphins you feel after a great workout? Well, that's when the real magic happens. So if you love hearing
real inspiring stories from the people, you know, follow and admire join me every week for post run
high. It's where we take the conversation beyond the run and get into the heart of it all. It's
lighthearted, pretty crazy, and very fun. Listen to Post Run High on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast,
and we're kicking off our second season
digging into how tech's elite has turned Silicon Valley
into a playground for billionaires.
From the chaotic world of generative AI
to the destruction of Google search,
Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at the underbelly of tech
from an industry veteran with nothing to lose.
This season I'm going to be joined by everyone from Nobel-winning economists
to leading journalists in the field,
and I'll be digging into why the products you love keep getting worse
and naming and shaming those responsible.
Don't get me wrong, though. I love technology.
I just hate the people in charge
and want them to get back to building things
that actually do things to help real people.
I swear to God things can change if we're loud enough.
So join me every week to understand
what's happening in the tech industry
and what could be done to make things better.
Listen to Better Offline on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts,
wherever else you get your podcasts.
Check out betteroffline.com.
I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating.
I don't feel emotions correctly.
I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not.
Those were some callers from my call-in podcast, Therapy Gecko.
It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over
the world as a fake gecko therapist and try to dig into their brains and learn a little bit about
their lives. I know that's a weird concept, but I promise it's pretty interesting if you give it a
shot. Matter of fact, here's a few more examples of the kinds of calls we get on this show.
I live with my boyfriend and I found his
piss jar in our apartment. I collect my roommate's toenails and fingernails. I have very overbearing
parents. Even at the age of 29, they won't let me move out of their house. So if you want an excuse
to get out of your own head and see what's going on in someone else's head, search for Therapy
Gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. It's you conversations with the culture makers who inspire us. Like our
episode with actor, former Beverly Hills 90210 star and host of the podcast, I Choose Me, Jenny Garth.
There have been so many times when I've been really lost. I say that because I'm on the other
side of it. And the only way to get to the other side of something is to go through it, not around it. Allow your body to feel the pain. And then you have to dig in sometimes and look
within to learn from it because that's what all these obstacles are for, I guess. Ultimately,
what other choice do you have? Listen to The Bright Side from Hello Sunshine
on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey, I'm Jack Peace Thomas, the host of a brand new Black Effect original series,
Black Lit, the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of Black literature. I'm Jack Peace Thomas, and I'm inviting you to join me and a vibrant community of literary enthusiasts dedicated to protecting and celebrating our stories.
Blacklit is for the page turners, for those who listen to audiobooks while commuting or running errands, for those who find themselves seeking solace, wisdom, and refuge between the
chapters. From thought-provoking novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our
culture. Together, we'll dissect classics and contemporary works while uncovering the stories
of the brilliant writers behind them. Blacklit is here to amplify the possibility of a ground conflict with Iran starting between Israel and Iran, but almost inevitably drawing in more U.S. forces, the known unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are pretty
staggering. If I let myself analyze every possibility, my mind can go to some dark places.
Trump sees war with Iran as a negative now, I'm quite sure. But how would he feel about it in the
wake of, say, a Musk-centered plan to end the Federal Reserve and tank the dollar,
in the wake of the changes that all of his immigration policies would make on the price of food, the Depression-era levels of inflation and unemployment returning to the United States,
and the attendant social unrest that that would cause. If Americans find themselves on the verge
of food rights, perhaps Trump would gamble on war being the best distraction he could manage.
It's certainly not impossible.
Now, I don't know how useful it is
to bury myself in theoreticals and probabilities.
The known threats are dire enough
and they demand full-time awareness
in order to attempt to counter and endure.
So instead of spiraling,
I'm gonna leave you today
with the words of another Gazan,
Mohamed R. Maush.
He's a journalist who wrote an article for MSNBC right after the election titled,
My family and I survived the war in Gaza.
We know Trump's America won't save us.
And here's Mohamed.
For us, the election of Donald Trump isn't just a blip on the political radar or a shift
in foreign policy.
It's a challenge to sustain existence while the world seems intent on erasing us.
It's about surviving 77 years under occupation and over a year of ongoing genocide.
The very genocide I barely survived last December,
when my family and I, including my elderly parents and three-year-old son,
were buried under the rubble of what was once our home after it was struck by an Israeli fired U.S. missile. The date, December 7th, 2023. Our bones were crushed between layers of concrete
and twisted metal as we spent hours in the dark, buried together and praying to be pulled out in
one piece. The trauma of that night, and both its physical and emotional toll of my son's small,
fragile hand clinging to mine, comes back to me
now as Trump prepares to take power once more. I've seen how American political leaders toy with
the idea of change, how they dress up their campaigns with grand ideas about peace and
justice. Yet each president brushes off our reality. Barack Obama promised hope and change
we could believe in, yet we got more bombs.
Joe Biden offered a different approach, pledging and yielding support for Israel,
leaving us to live through even more horror.
Vice President Kamala Harris's niceties included no concrete promises to protect Palestinians,
but she did pledge to continue financial support for Israel.
And Trump's bluntness, as he promises to come back swinging,
reminds us not to hold out hope for Israel. And Trump's bluntness, as he promises to come back swinging, reminds us not to hold out hope for change. So, you know, not much optimism here, but I do really recommend reading that
article that MSNBC published. You know, it's bleak but important, especially given the fact that,
you know, we may be soon entering a world where it would be harder for
people like Mohammed to express their feelings and their truth to an audience. I don't think
it's unlikely that a clampdown is coming on some of these things. It's hard to say how extensive
it will be. But there's a threat that Israel and their backers see and the way that public sympathy
has built so quickly for Gaza
in a way that wasn't present
with a lot of previous stages of violence
between Israel and Gaza, right?
Now, this is the result of a lot of videos
spreading on social media.
It's the result of voices from Gaza
getting out and getting to people
in a way they really hadn't before.
And so one thing that does
worry me greatly when I think about what's going to happen in Gaza under President Trump is not
just what's going to happen to the people living there right now, but what's going to happen to
their ability to tell their story, to get information out to the rest of us. That is very
much an open question at this moment, but it's certainly one that should be on your lips.
And it's one that we will be investigating here at Cool Zone as long as we're able to continue doing that.
Until next time, I'm Robert Evans.
We'll be back tomorrow and every other day reporting on, you know, the world.
It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. world. descriptions. Thanks for listening. Hi, I'm Ed Zitron, host of the Better Offline podcast,
and we're kicking off our second season digging into tech's elite and how they've turned Silicon
Valley into a playground for billionaires. From the chaotic world of generative AI to the
destruction of Google search, Better Offline is your unvarnished and at times unhinged look at
the underbelly of tech brought to you by an industry veteran with nothing to lose listen to better offline on the iheart radio app apple podcasts wherever else you get your podcasts
from hey i'm jack these thomas the host of a brand new black effect original series black
lit the podcast for diving deep into the rich world of black literature black lit is for the
page turners, for those who
listen to audiobooks while running errands or at the end of a busy day. From thought-provoking
novels to powerful poetry, we'll explore the stories that shape our culture. Listen to Black
Lit on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
podcasts. AT&T, connecting changes everything.
Curious about queer sexuality, cruising, and expanding your horizons?
Hit play on the sex-positive and deeply entertaining podcast, Sniffy's Cruising Confessions.
Join hosts Gabe Gonzalez and Chris Patterson Rosso as they explore queer sex, cruising, relationships, and culture
in the new
iHeart podcast, Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Sniffy's Cruising Confessions will broaden minds
and help you pursue your true goals. You can listen to Sniffy's Cruising Confessions,
sponsored by Gilead, now on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
New episodes every Thursday. Welcome to Gracias Come Again, a podcast by Honey German,
where we get real and dive straight into todo lo actual y viral.
We're talking música, los premios, el chisme, and all things trending in my cultura.
I'm bringing you all the latest happening in our entertainment world and some fun and impactful interviews with your combos on the issues that matter to us, and it's all packed with gems, fun, straight-up comedia, and that's a song that only nuestra gente can sprinkle.
Listen to Gracias Come Again on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The 2025 iHeart Podcast Awards are coming.
This is the chance to nominate your podcast for the industry's biggest award.
Submit your podcast for nomination now at iHeart.com slash podcast awards.
But hurry, submissions close on December 8th.
Hey, you've been doing all that talking.
It's time to get rewarded for it.
Submit your podcast today at iHeart.com slash podcast awards.
That's iHeart.com slash podcast awards.