It Could Happen Here - What's Happening in Syria

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

James speaks to Wladimir van Wilgenburg about recent changes in the Syrian Civil war, what this means for the democratic project in North East Syria and how to find good information on the conflict online.  https://x.com/vvanwilgenburgSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We want to speak out and we want this to stop. Wow, very powerful. I'm Ellie Flynn, an investigative journalist, and this is my journey deep into the adult entertainment industry. I really wanted to be a player boy, my doll. He was like, I'll take you to the top, I'll make you a star. To expose an alleged predator and the rotten industry he works in. It's honestly so much worse than I had anticipated.

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the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, wherever else you get your podcasts from. Okay, hi everyone and welcome to It Could Happen here. Today we're very lucky to be joined by Vladimir von Bilhamburg, who's an underground journalist who covers Syria and Kurdistan. He's written two books, including one on the alliance between the SDF and the coalition. Is that a fair introduction Vladimir? Yeah, you can call it like that. Thank you. Thank you so much for joining us. There has obviously been a massive increase in a massive change in the conflict

in Syria in the last week or so just under a week. And I think the information that's available to people is often very bad, very delayed, or one side or other putting out propaganda things which mischaracterized the situation on the ground. Especially with regard to the Syrian National Army who we're going to talk about. Would you mind giving us a sort of very brief explanation of what has happened since last Wednesday when HTS, who we'll have to explain later, launched their operation against Aleppo.

Well, in general, I mean, the current situation in Aleppo came to a surprise to many. Many people didn't expect it. So just after the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Hayat al-Taghriyya Roshan, which is the offshoot of Al-Qaeda. So they said they don't have relations with Al-Qaeda anymore. They split off from Al-Qaeda. Yeah. They launched a big operation in Aleppo against the Syrian government, or the Syrian regime, whatever you want to call it. Yeah. I think

initially, they didn't think that they would go so far all the way into Aleppo city. There have been agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey, and Syria in Astana about the deconfliction zone in the northwestern province of Idlib. So the HDS insurgents, they claim they launched this operation towards Aleppo in response to violation of this Astana agreement. So according to that agreement, this area will be in control of the HDS and the other area will be control of the regime and they wouldn't bother each other. But this agreement was never really implemented. I mean, for instance, Russia, they were constantly bombing Idlib. Sometimes the HDS would attack regime positions. Also, according to this

deconfliction zone, actually the Syrian government and Iranian backed armed groups, they went actually in that the conflict zone was supposed to be controlled by the Syrian insurgents. So they launched this operation in response to the, they say the violations by the Syrian government. And I think because when they realized that the defenses of the Syrian government were very weak, they pushed further into Aleppo and it was not really planned to take the city of Aleppo. Although there's also a video of Jullani, the leader of HDS, saying that my brothers one day

we're going to be in Aleppo, so maybe it was planned, we don't know really for sure. But the fact is that the Syrian government defenses collapsed and for some people in the region it was sort of reminded of the days of Mosul when the Iraqi army, they fled Mosul in 2014 and then ISIS took over. Yeah. Although the HDS really denied that they are similar to ISIS, although they have a similar Islamist ideology. So they took the city of Aleppo in three days and they have been trying to go up towards Hama, a city more up. So far they haven't been able to take the city. And on the other hand, you also have another group called the Syrian National Army, which is groups composed of basic groups that were supported by the Turkish government.

They also started to move. They also started to carry out operations against Kurdish led forces, also known as the Syrian Democratic Forces or the YPG. And also they started to do operations against the Syrian government in above Al Bab and also in northern Aleppo. And they took also several towns in northern Aleppo and also they advanced. And I think their main reason of that, so while the HDS is primarily mostly fighting against the Syrian government, I think the Syrian National Army, because it's backed by Turkey, they also have an interest to undermine the Syrian Democratic Forces because Turkey, in the past they have said they don't want to have a second Kurdish autonomous region

in the region because we have already one in Iraq after, which became recognized after the fall of Saddam. So you have a Kurdistan region in Iraq and Turkey was sort of afraid to have a second Kurdistan region in Syria, especially because it's kind of created by a group which has ideological affiliation with the PKK with they follow the ideology of the imprisoned leader of the PKK, the Abdullah Ocalan, which Turkey sees as a terrorist organization. So it's very complex,

which we always keep saying about Syria. But you basically have two different operations. You have the Turkish back groups that are trying to stop the Kurds from linking up with Aleppo. And then you have the HDS, the Islamist groups that are trying to go up and they already took Aleppo. And they also took many areas in the countryside of Hama and actually they now control all of Idlib province. So in the past the Syrian government they controlled some parts of Idlib but now they control the HCS, they control all of Idlib. Yeah so I think if we start by looking I think most people who listen to this will be familiar with the SDF, with the autonomous administration in Northeast Syria and with the Rojava revolution.

And they'll be wondering kind of the question I get mostly is like, how does this impact that? Um, that's what people are asking. So with that in mind, I think we should explain perhaps we've talked before in this show about operation peace spring, you've ready shield or these Turkish incursions into previously SDF controlled areas and the genocidal violence that accompanied that or ethnic cleansing, however you want to phrase it. Can you explain what's happened in the areas where the SNA have advanced and

like what that's meant for the Kurdish people who live there or in some cases are still there? Yeah in the northern Aleppo and Aleppo city so you have two Kurdish neighborhoods called Ashrafiyah and Sheikh Maksud there are around 100 to 200,000 people living there. Then you have also two small Kurdish towns called Tel Aran and Tel Hassal which have changed hands constantly during the Syrian civil war between the YPG, the Syrian government and Iran, then by the rebels, then by ISIS, then by Al-Qaeda, like it was a big mess. Yeah.

Then you have also, you have like Kurds that were displaced from Afrin because Turkey, they carried out an operation against the YPG in 2018. So you have thousands of Kurds that left Afrin. So the statistics are a bit unclear, but at least there were around 10,000 IDPs living in camps in northern Aleppo. And you also have people living outside of the camp. So the statistics are always a bit unclear, but it's, they now say that they were around 10,000 families that were displaced. So they were already displaced from Afrin before. And there is this town of Telerafat, which has been a strategic location in Aleppo because

it was sort of like opening up the way to Aleppo city. And the Kurdish-backed forces, they took actually this town with Russian support from the Turkish-backed rebels. So they had like grievances about this town, but Turkey, even during the Afrin operation, they didn't get the green light to take this town from the Kurdish-backed groups. Also the Syrian government was there, by the way, after agreements. So this town always was like a focal point of contention between the Kurds and the Syrian insurgents. So what happened after HCS took Aleppo, the Syrian National Army with the backing of Turkey,

they moved on towards Tatar Afad. And also because in the past there was more a balance in Aleppo, because you have also two small towns called Nubal and Zahra. They were like prominently You have also two small towns called Numbul and Zahra. They were like prominently inhabited by people from the Shia religion. So there were Iranian back groups there and they were in the back of Tell-e-Rafat. So they were sort of as a balance. So they sort of like the Kurds were able to hold out in Tell-e-Rafat despite like many offensive by the Turkish back groups. So what happened because of basically all the Syrian government, they were removed from Aleppo. And as a result, like they were very weak and completely isolated. I mean,

until now, there's Kurdish forces in Astrafia and Sheikh Mahzoud, but they're completely surrounded and embargoed by the HDS, which is not something new because before this conflict, this new renewed conflict in Aleppo, the Syrian government was also imposing embargoes on those two neighborhoods, not allowing food and stopping electricity and bothering people at checkpoints because they had always issues with the Kurdish-led forces because they are sort of in the Syrian civil war. They have always played sort of a third role. They want to have their autonomy.

Then you have the Syrian armed groups there trying to topple the Syrian government. And then you have the Syrian armed groups, they're trying to topple the Syrian government. And then you have the Syrian government trying to stop this from happening. And then the Kurdish led forces were trying to create an autonomous administration. And they got some support from the US in the fight against ISIS since the Battle of Kobani. So yeah, this is like the situation Aleppo. So now what happened is that Tel Rafat, where in 2016 the Arabs of Tel Rafat, they fled actually after the SDF, the YPG took this town. So now the Sin rebels, they took this town. And this time the people that fled from Afrin to these towns, they were living around four or five, six IDP camps there. They were forced to flee.

So the Kurdish groups, they were like trying to resist the SNA advances, but they were not able to resist them because they were completely surrounded. Because as I mentioned, Nubul and Zahra fell. So they were like completely pinched from all sides. But before there had always like Nubul and Zahra behind them. So they couldn't not be completely surrounded. But this time they were completely surrounded. They were forced to leave.

They were not able to continue the fight. So I think there was like a de facto deal or something because you saw like convoys with actually with fighters with weapons and armed Humvees, they were like being escorted to checkpoints and they were allowed to cross towards Sapka actually, a town in northeastern Syria. And maybe most likely the U.S. they were involved in a sort of de facto deal and Turkey, but so far the US they haven't commented on that, but most likely there was sort of a deal for the forces in Tarrafah to leave with the civilians and they're now hosted in camps in displacement camps in the town of Tabqa. And then there are still Kurds living as I mentioned in Ashrafiyah and Sheikh Marsoud, the two big neighborhoods in Aleppo.

And then you have also two small Kurdish towns, the Aralne and the Al-Hassa, which are now controlled by the Syrian National Army, the Turkish-backed groups. So the Hayat al-Tahrir, their local administration, they offered the deal to the Kurdish fighters. They said, you can leave these two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo without any issues. And the Kurds that are living there, we respect them and they can stay there, but the Kurdish fighters, they have to leave. But then there was a statement, I think yesterday by the leader of the SEF, the Muslim Abdi, he was saying like we were forced to evacuate the people because we were trying to create

a corridor between these Kurdish enclaves in Aleppo with the rest of North East Syria, because they are like Turkish backed rebels and Syrian government in between. They were trying to make a corridor. So they said this corridor was actually broken and they were forced to evacuate. But he said that the Kurdish forces were still in Aleppo resisting. So it seems that the YPG didn't completely follow this offer of the HDS. But of course we don't know if there was maybe a backdoor deal with the HDS to allow first people in northern Aleppo to leave and then maybe

in a later phase that they will also leave Aleppo because they are there in a quite difficult situation. Yeah, very difficult situation. But they're now accused by the Syrian rebels that they are positioning snipers in Aleppo and that they are still in Aleppo, but they never left rebels that they are positioning snipers in Aleppo and that they are still Aleppo, but they never left Sheikh Mahsoud in Astrafiya. What I also talked to people, they're saying that civilians, they were offered in Sheikh Mahsoud in Astrafiya to leave that area if they wanted to leave. So they were not forced to leave that. They had the opportunity to leave that area if they wanted, but then the buses didn't

show up and they didn't leave because I mean, they not only evacuated Kurdish civilians from northern Aleppo, but I think they also evacuated the Shia population of Dubro-Zaghra. There were some talks also that they were also evacuated to north of Syria because they don't feel safe for their lives if those rebels take those areas and they are still there. They don't want to be captured by the rebels and used as hostages. So most likely they left both the Kurds to north east Syria. What will happen to them? They probably go to Iraq or to other areas in Syria. Yeah, you meet like in northeast Syria, you meet sometimes like either former regime soldiers or people who have left regime areas and like they've made their lives there.

We want to speak out, we want to raise awareness and we want this to stop. Wow, very powerful. I'm Ellie Flynn and I'm an investigative journalist. When a group of models from the UK wanted my help, I went on a journey deep into the heart of the adult entertainment industry. I really wanted to be a playboy model. Lingerie, topless.

I said, yes, please. Because at the center of this murky world is an alleged predator. You know who he is because of his pattern of behavior? He's just spinning the web for you to get trapped in it. He's everywhere and has been everywhere. It's so much worse and so much more widespread than I had anticipated. Together, we're going to expose him and the rotten industry he works in.

It's not just me. We're an army in comparison to him. Listen to The Bunny Trap on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome. I'm Danny Trejo. Won't you join me at the fire and dare enter Nocturnal, Tales from the Shadows, presented by I Heart and Sonora. An anthology of modern-day horror stories

inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters... to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. I know you. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturne Tales from the Shadows as part of Michael Tura podcast network available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, everyone, it's John, also known as Dr. John Paul. And I'm Jordan or Joe Ho.

And we are the BlackFatFilm Podcast. A podcast where all the intersections of identity are celebrated. Oh chat, this year we have had some of our favorite people on including Kid Fury, T.S. Madison, Amber Ruffin from the Amber and Lacey Show, Angela Carrasso and more. Make sure you listen to the Black Fat Film Podcast on the iHeart Radio app, Alpha Podcast or whatever you get your podcast girl. Oh I know that's right. I have a podcast or whatever you get your podcast girl. Ooh, I know that's right.

I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not. Those were some callers from my call-in podcast, Therapy Gecko. It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over the world as a fake

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now on the iHeart Radio app or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes every Thursday. So now we have the situation, right? Well, yeah, we have these two little islands. We'll just call them YPG for the ease of to not introduce another acronym, right? Of like a Kurdish armed folks in Aleppo. To complicate this further, and people will probably have seen this, I want to explain it. In Deir ez-Zor. We have a different situation, right? We have the SDF attacking Iranian back relishes and the regime. Do you feel comfortable explaining what's going on in Deir ez-Zor and why that's a different calculus? Yeah.

So, since former president or the incoming president, Donald Trump, when he pulled out troops from Syria in 2019, when Turkey did an offensive against the Kurds in Talabia and Ras al-Ain, at that point, the US, they left. But then there was so much criticism from both Democrats and Republicans that he was forced to come back. So until now, there are still 900 US troops in Deir ez-Zor province and in Hasakah province, which is actually not a lot because if you look to, for instance, South Korea, there are thousands of troops in South Korea and

other places. So it's not a lot, but in the US discussions, it's always discussed, oh, we have troops in Syria. But actually compared to other countries, it's not a very big number, 900 people. No, not at all. Very small footprint. So they have this small footprint in Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah. And they basically they

worked with the Kurdish led forces since the Battle of Kobani to basically defeat the ISIS caliphate because it was a threat to European security and US security and they were trying to carry out attacks on Europe and there were many attacks on Europe and when civilians were killed. So you have this anti-ISIS fight. This is one of the reasons actually why the Kurdish led forces, they were forced to go to Deir ez-Zor because it was their last bastion in 2019 when they defeated the territorial caliphate of ISIS. So since there you have this, the SESF there and they have their own

administration and Deir ez-Zor and they have like, uh, local forces and Arabs that joined them in the fight against ISIS. So what happened to that in the last few years, in the last one or two years, there have been attempts by the Syrian government and Iranian back groups basically to recruit Arab tribes to fight against the SDF. So there have been several skirmishes and battles since that time. After also the SDF, they arrested a commander of them that they thought he was like going to betray them. Yeah. So since that time, there were like several skirmishes between these malicious that are

calling themselves the tribal army or something in that regard. And then you have the SCF. So you had like fights between the Iranian back groups and the SDF. And recently, with all the changes in Syria, there were a number of villages around 7-6 villages that were actually Russian army was based in those villages. It was like the line sort of dividing the US backed SDF forces and the Syrian government forces and there's also a river. But those villages, they were like in front of the river. So the river is sort of naturally dividing the areas between the SDF and the Syrian government.

But there were still a number of villages that were not on that line. And actually there were Russian troops based in that villages. But with the whole crisis with Aleppo and the fight now between the HDS and the Syrian government in Hama, the Russians, they moved out from those villages. So those villages, they're actually almost empty. There is nothing there. So during this situation, SDF just moved in those villages and there was actually not so much fighting, although on the social media I see they're all there fighting and this kind of

stuff. So over the last one or two years, they have been heavy fighting between the sdf and rain impact groups but in these villages not so much because it was just empty villages and they just took them over and there was no one there yeah okay so that leaves us with like the i guess a and yes getting a little bit larger in in the south and then smaller in the west yeah very much smaller in the west and it's even not smaller in the west. And it's even not clear if they can keep their presence in Aleppo because I mean, she's not completely surrounded by the HDS. And it seems that the HDS, they have been a little bit softer with the SDF and a YPG than the SNA because the SNA, I mean, they have their issues because they're also backed

by the Turkish government and the Turkish government, I mean, they have their issues because they're also backed by the Turkish government and the Turkish government, they always said their policy is basically to stop the SDF from creating autonomous area. And they also said the SDF is linked to the PKK, although the SDF, they deny links to the PKK, although they don't deny their ideological affiliation with the imprisoned PKK leader. So Turkey always said that they are feeling threatened and they have always claimed that attacks were planned on Turkey from north east of Syria, from Rojava on Turkey. Although the SDF have denied that. I think there was also, there was not so long time ago,

there was also an attack in Ankara and Turkey also claimed that it was carried, planned from Kurdish citizens in Syria. Yeah. So that's like the situation. Yeah, that gives us a pretty good semi of the situation, I think. We want to speak out, we want to raise awareness and we want this to stop. Wow, very powerful. I'm Ellie Flynn, and I'm an investigative journalist.

When a group of models from the UK wanted my help, I went on a journey deep into the heart of the adult entertainment industry. I really wanted to be a Playboy model. Lingerie, topless. I said, yes, please. Because at the center of this murky world is an alleged predator.

You know who he is because of his pattern of behavior. He's just spinning the web for you to get trapped in it. He's everywhere and has been everywhere. It's so much worse and so much more widespread than I had anticipated. Together, we're going to expose him and the rotten industry he works in. It's not just me. We're an army in comparison to him. Listen to The Bunny Trap on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, I'm Danny Trejo. Won't you join me at the fire and dare enter

Nocturnum, Tales from the Shadows, presented by I Heart and Sonora. An anthology of modern-day horror stories inspired by the legends of Latin America. From ghastly encounters with shapeshifters, to bone-chilling brushes with supernatural creatures. I know you. Take a trip and experience the horrors that have haunted Latin America since the beginning of time. Listen to Nocturne Tales from the Shadows as part of my cultura podcast network available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple

podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Hey everyone, it's John also known as Dr. John Paul. And I'm Jordan or Joe Ho. And we are the BlackFatFilm Podcast. A podcast where all the intersections of identity are celebrated. Woo chat, this year we have had some of our favorite people on including Kid Fury, T.S. Madison, Amber Ruffin from the Amber and Lacey Show, Angelica Ross and more. Make sure you listen to the Black Fat Femme podcast on the iHeartRadio app, have a podcast

or whatever you get your podcast girl. Ooh, I know that's right. I found out I was related to the guy that I was dating. I don't feel emotions correctly. I am talking to a felon right now and I cannot decide if I like him or not. Those were some callers from my call-in podcast, Therapy Gecko.

It's a show where I take real phone calls from anonymous strangers all over the world as a fake gecko therapist, and try to dig into their brains and learn a little bit about their lives. I know that's a weird concept, but I promise it's pretty interesting if you give it a shot. Matter of fact, here's a few more examples of the kinds of calls we get on this show.

I live with my boyfriend, and I found his piss jar in our apartment. I collect my roommates' toenails and fingernails. I have very overbearing parents. Even at the age of 29, they won't let me move out of their house. So if you want an excuse to get out of your own head and see what's going on in someone else's head, search for Therapy Gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It's the one with the green guy on it. Curious about queer sexuality, cruising, and expanding your horizons?

Hit play on the sex-positive and deeply entertaining podcast Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Join hosts Gabe Gonzalez and Chris Patterson Rosso as they explore queer sex, cruising, relationships, and culture in the new iHeart podcast, Sniffy's Cruising Confessions. Sniffy's Cruising Confessions will broaden minds and help you pursue your true goals. You can listen to Sniffy's Cruising Confessions, sponsored by Gilead, now on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes every Thursday. So, let's talk about HTS a bit, because I think you're going to see one of two things, right? When we talk about the SNA and HTS, a lot of outlets will just collapse them under the

same descriptor. They will just say Syrian rebels. And I think people will think of the original largely secular uprising in Syria in 2011. And if they have not been paying attention, they'll realize that ISIS has been in gone, but they'll think, oh, these must be the same guys. These are not the same guys. Well, some of them may be the same guys who originally part like Jelani was originally sent there by a Baghdadi way back to be part of ISIS. But these are not the secular rebels who originally rose up in Syria. And so can you explain, like, HDS has this very interesting kind of legitimacy project, right?

Like it's trying to build a pseudo state and present like a kind of gentler jihadism. I don't know how to say it, but can you explain a little bit of this transformation of HDS and what you make of it? I mean, as you mentioned that, uh, Jullani, the current leader of the HDS, he was sent by, uh, at that time, I think it was, uh, Al-Qaeda or the Islamic state of Iraq. Uh, to Syria basically to establish like, to establish like, but at that time there was no ISIS yet, I think. So later basically he refused to pledge allegiance and he basically did his own thing.

He created Jabal al-Nusra, which was the affiliate of Al-Qaeda. But then he decided to basically split from Al-Qaeda and he denounced his links to, I think at the time the leader was Zawahiri, but I'm not sure. So he basically splits from Al-Qaeda and you still have a split-off group from Al-Qaeda in Idlib, it's called Hura Saldin, which they actually had issues with, they had some problems with them. So, HDS, although ISIS territory was defeated in 2019, the HDS, with all the craters in Syria, because they have been fighting over all the province between the Syrian government and different Syrian armed groups, they managed to cement that control in

the province of Idlib and they created their own little administration there. But despite that, they say that we don't have any links to Al-Qaeda. I mean, they're still listed by, for instance, the US as a terrorist organization. Yeah, there's a $10 million bounty on Jilani still, right? They just never took it away from. Yeah. So, I mean, it seems that the US doesn't believe this moderation idea that the HES tries to show them more moderately. But my idea of the HES is more like a sort of lighter, softer version of ISIS. I mean, they're not like ISIS that they're gonna broadcast people being blown up or beheaded on the film screen. It's just that they do it in the back of the screen. I mean, there's people being executed according to the Islamic

Sharia law, there are people being imprisoned. I mean, you also had protests actually in Idlib against Jelani that they were actually opposed to the authoritarian rule. And I think then you have separate from the sort of this Islamic Islamist, which you can actually sort of compare to the Taliban. Yes, I think that's a good comparison. It's just to the Taliban. And also, I think Taliban, they have some relations actually with the HDS and they also congratulated the HDS after they took control of Aleppo. So sort of it's like a Taliban rule, although of course Taliban is very different context related to Syria culture and Afghan culture. So it's different, of course, but they're both Islamist projects with a national project at the same time. So it's Islamist project for Syria and the Taliban have an Islamist project for Afghanistan Although you also have Pakistani Taliban, etc. Yeah

So it's not like a transnational jihad, but you can call it like a national jihad. Maybe yeah I think that's the crucial difference right at least for yeah The US like that makes them kind of more amenable than than ISIS or you know like that makes them kind of more amenable than ISIS or even al-Qaeda is that yeah they have this nationally contained jihadi vision. But they don't do attacks in Europe or in the US but of course there are several groups in Idlib that are sort of falling under the control of HDS that are possibly could do external attacks etc and apart from that you have the Syrian National Army so the Syrian National Army. So the Syrian National Army is like a mix of different groups. As you mentioned in the

beginning of the Syrian Civil War you had the Free Syrian Army. But then the Free Syrian Army, they split in several groups. I mean some like linked to Muslim Brotherhood, some linked to Turkmen groups, other groups, secular groups cetera. So all these groups that were basically fighting in different provinces, they were all gathered because Turkey, they did several Turkish military, did several operations since 2016 in northern Syria with the main aim is to stop the YPG from linking up the Kurdish enclaves on the border with Turkey. So they did, I think the first one was a Euphrates Shield. Then they had, I think, Operation Olive Branch in Afrin in 2018. Yeah.

Incredible names. Then I think the last operation I can't recall, it was in 2019 when they took Tal Abyad and Serekhania from the Kurdish forces, the YPG SDF. So they have this pre-operations and these groups are sort of a mix, as I mentioned, of different groups with also different ideologies. Some are more Turkmen in nature. Some of them are more Islamist in nature. Some of them are like sort of leftovers from secular groups that use to fight. Some of them, even in the past, they received support from the US from the CIA against the Syrian regime. So some of them they received support.

And this is like a sort of umbrella of several organizations. So at the HDS is one group and they control also other groups in it, but it's one group, but the SNA, there are like a lot of different groups and they also have been fighting each other several times in areas on Turkish control. So this is very different than they are more sectarian in nature, let's say more. I mean, they have also been less under control than the HDS in the way that there have been a lot of kidnappings for ransom, a lot of like sexual violence against women, rape. Yeah. This is all documented by several organizations, UN organizations. They also have child soldiers. So they have different kinds of issues and but they have been more accused of like more

sort of gang style of activity. And that's why also some of them they were sanctioned by the US and also some of them they have integrated like ISIS, former ISIS fighters in their ranks. And you also have like first you have some groups that are from Deir ez-Zor, the other are originally for instance from the area around Mara or Azaz, some of them they are displaced from Ghouta. So a lot of them they also they came because the Syrian government they advanced with Russian support and then these groups were brought by buses through the areas on the Turkish control. So these areas became a sort of like, maybe it's a bad word, a sort of a dumping ground

for all these Syrian rebel groups that were not completely defeated, but displaced by Syrian government and offenses with the Russian support. So I mean, before they were in Aleppo and Homs and Hama and Damascus, all these groups, they were moved with buses through agreements between Iran, Turkey, Russia and Syria to northern Syria to Idlib. And now these groups they are coming back because they were never completely defeated. I mean, they had their own administration. So the Syrian National Army, they fall under the Turkish backed Syrian opposition. I think they call it the Syrian National Coalition or in Arabic, the Italaaf.

So they have their own interim government administration in the areas under Turkish control and then you have the Salvation government under the HES. So there are two different administrations and they also doesn't mean that they agree with each other. So just calling them the rebels, it's a little bit like, yeah, it doesn't really doesn't fit to the reality. But of course, you also have to deal with the fact that for media, if they want to explain complex situations to a general public, it's very difficult to just say, okay, you have this acronym and you have this acronym and you have the white, the AGS and the SNA.

So people, they will lose their interest. So that's why it's always become a sort of this black and white. So, oh, you have the Syrian insurgents, and then you have the Syrian government. And then it's already complex enough to also add Kurds to the mix. So they also, versus often the Turkish government, they got very angry that the media keeps calling the YPG the Kurds because they don't represent the Kurds. But you can say that with any group in Syria or anywhere in the world. I mean, you have an Americans, you have different political parties, you have different parties in Syria, you have different parties in Turkey. So these groups

don't represent all the Syrians or all the Arabs or all the Kurds or all the otherwise. They're always different political factions. And that's what makes it so complicated in Syria because a lot of these groups got fragmented. But actually, with the support of Turkey, they actually united under one umbrella, which is called the Syrian National Army. And then, of course, even on the Syrian government side, there's many different groups. I mean, you have Iranian-backed armed groups, you have groups from Lebanon that are helping the Hezbollah, Lebanese Hezbollah. Then you have Iraqi Iranian-backed groups that are supporting the Syrian government. Then you have also Shias that were recruited from Afghanistan. And then also in the Syrian government security structure, I mean, in the past there was no

room for militias, but they have, for instance, the NDF, which is sort of like a Syrian government backed militia, which even sometimes fought with the Syrian government itself when they tried to become more too much powerful, sort of like what you have in Wagner in Russia that tried to challenge the Russian government and then they got Kurtel. So it's like even with the Syrian sort of the forces backing the Syrian army, it's not like so simple. It's also not you have just the Syrian army, that's it. You have also different kind of militias, some supported by Iran, some supported by Russia, that are backing the Syrian government. Yeah, everyone wants, I think Ukraine has really reinforced this, they want war to be like colors

on a map and a front line and the front line moves and that's just not how it like, oftentimes those little lines on a map will be, in reality it's people driving around and pick up trucks with Tushkas in the back wondering where the other guys are and what's going on. It's not like Ukraine where you have trenches and people firing at each other from trench lines who gradually move. As much as it would be easy to have modelists, we just don't in Syria. Yeah, I mean, in Syria it's different because there are more religious and ethnic groups than in Ukraine.

I mean, in Ukraine you have the Ukrainians and the Russians. And I mean, you also have people speaking Russian in other areas of Ukraine, but it's very, it's much more complex in, in, in, in Syria, although you obviously also have different groups fighting in Ukraine, but Syria is a bit more complex and it's difficult for the media to get a grip on that without like, you know, like trying to also explain to a normal reader what is going on in Syria. But also in general, you have all this international media that are cutting down costs and they're closing their foreign bureaus. So also, I mean, the money for like extensive

reporting in Syria is also getting less or in general in internationally speaking. Yes. And then you have another problem is that you have the problem of access in Syria. So if you are wanting to go to the Syrian government areas, very difficult because if you have reported in Syrian rebel areas, the Syrian government is not going to give you a visa. You have to be like very pro-Syrian government. Yeah. If you go to the areas under rebel control, to be honest, like it's very difficult for any journalist to go to HDS areas or the Syrian National Army area. So even if a journalist wants to report positively about the rebels, it's very difficult. They have like a press adacritization in Turkey and they have to cross the border.

It's very complicated. So there's barely, in very rare cases, journalists going into northwest Syria. And then with the Kurdish controlled areas, if you can call them like that, like North East Syria, it's a bit easier. I mean, there are people flying through to Iraqi Kurdistan and then they can get like permission from the Kurdish authorities here in Iraqi Kurdistan and then they can cross the border. So it's a bit easier, but the number of journalists going there is very limited. Yeah. And most of the interest actually of the Western media was not so much about the Syrian conflict.

It was more about this Western ISIS woman and ISIS fighters that were jailed or held in camps in, in North East Syria. So most of the focus of the Western media was most of the time, okay, what's happening in the whole camp, because you have thousands of ISIS families there or in versus in the prison. So So I mean, the American journalists were interested in US Daesh fighters and the Dutch were interested in Dutch ISIS families or fighters and the same for many other countries. Yeah, the British media is terrible for that. They'll go to North East Syria and then not talk about North East Syria and this Al-Hawq just exists as kind of a bubble outside of

context in that reporting. Yeah, they just talk about Shamima Syria and this whole just exists as kind of a bubble outside of context in that reporting. Yeah, they just talk about Shamima Begun and she became sort of a celebrity in the UK. Although I think even that address nowadays, it's like very limited because a lot of these European countries in the UK, they have their own domestic issues. So in general, the interest in Syria has gone down a lot and I think also with this current conflict and the left side will get some attention in the media for a few days but at some point it's gonna go down again yes of course unless and maybe there will be conflicts in other parts of the world again so I think at some point also this media attention because the media attention for Syria already was like very low yeah unless it's gonna affect Europe in a

large extent because it could also create new waves of refugees trying to go to Europe. There's many people that were displaced again. There was a very nice post on X by one journalist from I think a Saudi outlet and he was saying it's very sad to see. He was basically saying like at any moment our people can be displaced at any time or can be displaced again. So that's like sort of the life of Syrians that live in these different like front lines like anytime they can displace like the people at Fraffrin they were displaced in 2018 and now 2024 they were displaced again and then you have people displaced by the Syrian government living in the houses of Kurds in Afrin and they are also victims of this conflict.

So yeah, so it's a very complicated situation. People being displaced, moving in the houses of displaced and displaced living in other people's houses that are also displaced. So it's like a very cynical and sad situation. Yeah, and a very, very difficult one for civilians. And certainly like with the change of government in the US, it seems unlikely that we will be reaching out to help those displaced civilians in the near future. And certainly we've seen a lot of Kurdish people who have been displaced

either by Turkish aggression or who there's a whole other situation with Kurdish areas in Turkey at the moment and their elections and such which we don't have time to go into but many of them have come to the US and I've interviewed lots of them for this show so we've I think people will be familiar with that. Vladimir I think that's probably about all we have time for but I wanted to offer you a chance you have very good tweets you have a very good understanding of the whole situation, your articles do an excellent job of making it understandable. Where can people find your writing and follow you?

Well, I mean, you can find my tweets on my personal Twitter page, which is on my name, Vladimir van Wilgenburg, and also I write for different outlets and think tanks. Like for instance I write for Middle East Eye, Fikra Forum from the Washington Institute. Also I've been writing some pieces for Carnegie. So yeah, I've been writing for several places on the current situation. Yeah, and sometimes I also do interviews. I I talked on BBC a few times on the situation and on Dutch. So you can find my work on my Twitter profile. Always post my articles there. Yeah, that's great.

Is there anything else you'd like to maybe suggest that people follow? I think it could be really easy to get a lot of propaganda when it comes to Syria. So is there anything you'd suggest that people kind of get their news from? Well, I mean, I think in general, Ix is still like a good platform. It has been from the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, although of course you have different accounts with different views supporting different factions. So it's always good to verify any videos posted. Although it's like more difficult to verify videos than pictures, but it's always good to verify locations and the background of people that are posting stuff. And then also I think it's very interesting and good to follow the maps of the Syrian Civil War because you have several places where they publish maps of the Civil War.

So it's easier to follow it on the map than by tweets or posts on X. But I think in general, I mean, there are still like many international media that are trying to do reporting on Syria. But I think in general, what I've seen is becoming more limited and it's mostly based on for instance, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. So the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is a good source. They have a page in English and Arabic, although sometimes their English pages are a bit difficult to follow for people if they don't know the background of the conflict because it's more

written for locals. And then also you have, for instance, there's this civil society organization that focuses on human rights abuses. I think it's called Syrians for Justice. They have very good reports on the situation, but it's a bit slow because it's not like 24 hours. I mean, it's like they do an investigative reports on abuses by all sides of the Syrian civil conflict.

Yeah. So in general, I think X is very grouped and also like Telegram, I mean, a lot of these different groups, they have Telegram channels where they post the latest updates, but of course, all of them are quite biased. But bias you will get anyway in such a conflict is inevitable. So yeah, everyone's biased to a degree. You will see dead people a lot if you go following Telegram channels that are here in Civil War. So if that's not something you'd like to see, that's probably not a platform to be on. Big Dev, thank you so much for your time.

I know it's late with you. We'll let you get to sleep. We do appreciate you joining us and hopefully people will follow you on Twitter and get good information about what's happening. You're welcome. It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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