Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Balance of Power in the Middle East.

Episode Date: December 23, 2024

Alastair Crooke: Balance of Power in the Middle East.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, December 23rd, 2024, Christmas week. Alistair Crook will be with us in a moment on the new balance of power in the Middle East. But first, this. We're taught to work hard for 35 to 40 years. Save your money, then live off your savings. Unfortunately, there are too many threats undermining the value of our hard-earned dollars. The Fed's massive money printing machine is shrinking your dollar's value. Just the cost of groceries is absurd. Let me be brutally honest. I think the dollar is on its way to being extinct.

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investing for over 27 years. They help me diversify into gold and silver. They can help you too. Call Lear today at 800-511-4620, 800-511-4620, or go to learjudgenap.com. Hello, Alistair. Welcome to the show, my dear friend. An early Merry Christmas to you and your family. And the same to your family. Thank you. Thank you, my friend. Why is Syria being torn apart? Well, it's been on the agenda for a very long time. The American ambassador, Judge James Jeffries, who was the ambassador both to the Middle East and to Iraq, even in 2021, was saying that Syria was a strategic pivot on which American security management of the whole Middle East depended.

And so even then, looking to HTS, he was in touch with HTS, he was making sure HTS, which was a derivative of Al-Qaeda and ISIS, now separated, but that's their, if you like, DNA, he was making sure that they knew he wouldn't touch them, that they could go on doing what they were doing. And he was making it clear, and HTS was sending sort of love messages back, saying, we love you, we're not going to affect you, we're just against Iran, Hezbollah, and Assad. And so it's been going for a long time. Billions of dollars were being spent, billions were being spent on preparing and training these militias to bring down Assad. And finally, that was what did it.

It was not so much HDS. I mean, they just walked in and took the country by agreement. But at that time, from, if you like, from 2011 until 23, the Syrian economy had imploded by 83%. I mean, there was just no economy that was left there. It was the oil and the agricultural revenues were taken by the Kurds. The industrial center around Aleppo was taken and stripped by Turkey. And I think this is what brought it down, was that there was just no way with that sort of economic situation, no way that Assad could see himself to being able to, you know, survive and to, he had nothing to work with, no resources to work with. And I think, therefore, he was

desperate. And the Gulf states were saying, look, why don't you turn to the West? Give up Iran. Give up Hezbollah. Cut your links with those people and you'll be welcomed by the West and maybe they'll lift sanctions on you and you can restore yourself. And he believed it. I mean, same with Gaddafi some years before and we know what happened. So that was really, I think he was desperate. He started

moving away from Russia, from Iran, and then eventually Russia and Iran could see the writing on the wall. The state of Syria, as it was, was just irrecoverable. I mean, how, and would take, you know, they've calculated that it will take $300 billion to do just to make it viable again, reconstruct and make it viable. I mean, there's no way he was going to get that money, even from the Gulf states were not going to pay for that. So there was an agreement that was pushed very hard by Erdogan, that Hezbollah, Iran, Russia forces would withdraw. Assad, when he went to Moscow, was pretty clearly told what was going to come,

that this was an agreement that they would withdraw and that HTS and his ancillary movements, his ancillary militia would come in and there would be a transition. And Assad was over, game over for him. And the best thing was just to order his army to stand down and to let the transition happen. So that's what happened. But by what moral justification or even legal authority could Secretary of State, then Secretary of State Pompeo, have issued a waiver to allow aid to HTS, given its history and given its denomination by the British and by Pompeo's own Department of State as a terrorist organization, and given Al-Jalani's deplorable personal public record? You know, it was very cleverly done in a way in which it was not, you know, here's some money. It was never that way it was organized that it came through in a sort of

indirect way. But the waiver was given nonetheless to support him and to try and help him come into office. And he's now in office and now Jalani is effectively well in control of bits of Syria. Many parts of it he's not in control. Some parts there is mayhem. But he's responsible. The Turks are there holding his hand. And the Turks really have ambitions, I mean, to take Syria under their wing. And beyond that, I mean, Erdogan has said,

you know, as far as he's concerned, Jerusalem is Ottoman. Aleppo is Ottoman. Jordan. Wait a minute, Jerusalem is Ottoman, meaning what? The Turks are going to invade Israel? It means that one day this irredentist government in Turkey, yes, intends to take. It's going to take Syria now. It's taken Syria. And it has ambitions further afield. The Ottoman Empire

was much broader than it is now. And most of it was stripped away from it in 21. And that's still great in Ankara and in Turkey. And Erdogan has said, you know, he's going to stand by the Palestinians. He takes responsibility for the Palestinians. Look, he talks a lot. I mean, you know, he talks the talk. The question is, does he walk the walk? And at the moment, the Palestinians are just, you know, in the doldrums. They've been cut off and there's no immediate prospect.

But I don't think we should, you know, be defeatist about this. This is the beginning of a big war, a long war. This has been a setback. Why did Russia do it? I think Russia did it because he looked at, you know, he has 50 wars going on around him one way or another from NATO trying to put on pressure. And for him, I mean, he doesn't have 300 billion to spare to prop up Syria at this time. And the focus for him must be Ukraine. And the bigger picture, which is the picture of the world moving towards

a multi-polar world, is the most important thing. Therefore, to keep China, Russia, Iran as part of that multi-polar world. Maybe Turkey, because Turkey now is certainly going to get itself at odds with America and with Israel. Because even in the last days, over the weekend, the Turkish foreign minister was there telling Jolani, there will be no Syrian SDA in in in in Syria the the if you like the pro-American Syrian armed forces are going to be eliminated disarmed and eliminated and pushed out and that's going to make both Israel and America mad at Turkey. So maybe Putin is also calculating that ultimately, Turkey's venture into Syria is going to push him closer towards some, going to push him towards the BRICS inevitably.

And that's very possible. Do you think he was, I guess you do think that Putin was wise to stay out of Assad's collapse? I don't think, I would put it even more simpler, I don't think he had any choice. I mean, you know, he is fighting a major war in Ukraine. I mean, I just don't think it would have made sense for him to start because this is going to be an expanding war there's no doubt we have Israel they bombed it to bits and now they're occupying large sectors of the western part of Syria it was going to become a big war they could see that it was irrecoverable the situation was it was over and so I think what he's done is now focusing, because it's coming to a crunch, the big question now is Israeli Trump. In a little while, President Trump will be inaugurated and wants to talk to Putin about Ukraine. Well, from the perspective of Moscow at this point, it's not looking so good.

When they look at and listen to General Kellogg, he says things which make no sense, like that Russians have five times the casualties of the Ukrainians. Why is General Kellogg saying that? Does he even know what he's talking about, or is he being be a train wreck crash. I mean, because, you know, this is, he's not going to get anywhere. There's going to be no freezing. There's going to be no ceasefire. I mean, then there'll be a train wreck. And so what they're trying to do and what Putin, I think, I don't know if there are back channels from Putin to Trump. I don't think there probably are. I think they're just signaling each other in public statements at this point rather than there is a real channel.

And if the channel is really Kellogg, you know, it isn't looking so good. So I think what Putin is trying to do is to leave the, not complicate the situation with Washington at this stage by intervening in Syria, by having a crisis with America and Israel. So he's pulled back from that to leave, if you like, space for the discussion, not with Kellogg, but with Trump. And then the main aim must be to try and move Trump along the path towards, look, you're not going to get a sensible victory out of a deal in Ukraine. We know you need to have some sort of be able to present this as a victory, but it's not just going to be possible. And you're certainly not going to want to be in the position of being the president who, if you like, extinguishes America's world primacy

and indeed America the great. So what I suggest we do is let's talk big picture and not small picture. Let's talk about how east and west can get together how we can resolve our problems together how we can deal with these missiles intermediate missiles long-range missiles then you can present that as a great success but and when we do that too if we can get a framework a security architecture for if you like the Western sphere up against the Asian sphere China Russia Iran all the rest of the brick structure if we can get some modus vivendi out of that that can be your great success. That can be your victory. But Kellogg in Ukraine, it's heading for a wreck. So I think he's saying, let's get the big picture done.

And out of that, if we can agree that, then Ukraine will just fall into place. What is the sphere of Western interests? What is the sphere of Western interest what is the sphere of um Heartland interests Asian Heartland interest how what is the point at which they meet and you know Ukraine will fall into position uh as a result of that discussion not simply by um you know talking about a ceasefire or exchange of territories. I think it's very clear from Putin in his last, his annual press briefing that he does the other day. He's saying very clearly, we are going for victory, military victory. We are going to dismantle the Ukrainian army,

and it will happen quite soon. And so there's nothing really, there's no sort of, you know, American victory to be had out of this, presented as a victory in any way. So let's have this bigger conversation. And it'll include, of course, the Middle East, but the Middle East now is heading to a clash between these two. Now we have two big powers in the Middle East, Turkey, who has irredentist ambitions, right down to Jerusalem, and you have greater Israel saying, you know, well, actually Damascus

is part of greater Israel. So I mean, these two are going to headbutt at the spirit. I don't know how badly and what way, but it's inevitable because Turkey is determined. So Israel now has a jihadist state on its borders. That is going to make it very uneasy. Iran is no longer in the direct southern picture, but Iran is still powerful. And you may have a surprise before, even before Trump takes office from Iran, a demonstration of deterrence from Iran. They are seriously thinking about it. I can't tell you that it's absolutely

sure, but I think you will find that they have decided that there needs to be a demonstration of deterrence before Trump takes office on the 20th of January. The Financial Times this morning is reporting that the Trump transition team has told Kiev and has told NATO leaders, this is almost inconceivable, but I have to give credibility to it because of the origin of the reports, that President Trump or President-elect Trump in a month, President, will continue American arms and financial aid to Ukraine. Do you believe that? I think that, you know, still think that for all the bluster and the language, and I'm never very trusting in what Trump sort of assistants and aides and team are saying, except for one or two. I do listen very much to what the vice president said and even

Musk. But I do think that, you know, he does not want wars. And he said very clearly, we're heading towards World War III. And I think that if he goes to Moscow and talks to Putin, Putin precisely will say, you don't want World War III, nor do we. We have to try and come to a sort of bigger agreement about, you know, where are your spheres of interest what are ours and how to stop this endless sort of competition of putting intermediate range missiles right on each other's doorsteps I mean this is a recipe to go to war to third world war and I don't think you want that so we need to sit down. So I think in a way, this was all

connected with Syria. Putin didn't want either Iran or him or Russia to be engaged in a sort of direct head-on clash with Washington at this time in order to keep the ground clear for the bigger talk, which I think he will hope to have sometime after late January or the next month. Here's President-elect Trump last week giving his understanding of the Turkish role, A, in the demise of Syria, and B, in the new Middle East. Cut number eight. Turkey is a major force, by the way. And Erdogan is somebody I got along with great, but he has a major military force. And his has not been worn out with war. It hasn't been worn out with all of the other things. I mean, he's built a very strong, powerful army.

If you're talking about, too, now that one of the sides has been essentially wiped out, but nobody knows who the other side is. But I do. You know who it is? Turkey. Okay? Turkey is the one behind it.

He's a very smart guy. They've wanted it for thousands of years, and he got it. And those people that went in are controlled by Turkey. And that's OK. It's another way to fight. But no, I don't think that I want to have our soldiers killed. But I don't think that will happen now anyway, because the one side's been decimated. If Trump is right, the Netanyahu celebrations of last week were short-lived. I think that's so.

And I think they are also. I mean, I know there's euphoria in Israel at the moment. And that they're in a sort of orgy of destruction in the West Bank, in Gaza, in Syria. They've just destroyed the infrastructure absolutely completely. Now they're destroying it in Yemen. The ports are being destroyed. The power plants are being destroyed. I mean, where is this taking Israel? I mean, at the end of the day, they have to live or find a means of living with 7 million Palestinians. I mean, this war without limits of trying to suppress people's identity, suppress their political, moral being, and to leave them with no will, completely suppressed in this way by fear

and by massive, if you like, military force. I mean, this is Leviathan, Leviathan, Hobbes' Leviathan imposed on the Middle East. But always it was understood, you know, Leviathan just doesn't work. In the end, it becomes self-destructive. And I think you can hear even Israelis saying, you know, where's this taking us? I mean, this is going to actually destroy Israel as well. I mean, maybe we can't plot out exactly how this is going to take place and unfold in this and this way, but I think it's clear to many in the region, you know, that this course that's being pursued, which doesn't have rationality, it's not reason, it is about, if you like, the Leviathan simply

crushing any will to resist any individualism, any identity, Palestinian identity, Syrian identity, Yemen identity, so that it can control completely. And I don't think this will succeed. So there will be resistance. It will change. The war will go on. Syria is out of it it's it will be it is now um um president-elect trump was exactly right right taken over by turkey it's now in the

turkish field and turkey will probably you know well what is it going to do with the israelis there because the israelis are taking more and more land and they're taking the water resources, which are vital to Jordan and other places. They're taking water resources. So Turkey is going to have to deal with that. It says it wants an intact, complete Syria. Got it. No borders.

That means no Kurds on the one hand. Well, no Kurds belonging to the sda the american sponsored no israelis and no israelis right elsta thank you very much thank you for everything you've done for our audience and for the show during 2024 we're off next week we look forward to seeing you right after the first of the year. I wish you and your family a very happy Christmas and a wonderful holiday. And please, to you and to your mother, a very happy Christmas. Thank you. Thank you, Alistair. All the best.

All the best to you. Thank you. Coming up later today, Ray McGovern at 10 this morning, Larry Johnson at 11 this morning, Pepe Escobar at noon, and at three this afternoon, the always worth waiting for, Max Blumenthal, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.