Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Can Trump Save Gaza and Ukraine?

Episode Date: February 3, 2025

Alastair Crooke: Can Trump Save Gaza and Ukraine?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Pastor Crook, welcome here, my dear friend. I want to spend a fair amount of time addressing the latest with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump. But first, let me pick your brain on Russia and Ukraine, particularly since you're coming to us from Moscow and you may have a feel for things. Why do you suppose the Biden pipeline of aid to Kiev is still flowing? I think, you know, one of the most difficult tasks we face at the moment is addressing who Trump is and what he's doing. I mean, he's a complicated person and he is a showman and he is very adept at addressing

different audiences in different ways, sometimes in an aside, sometimes by saying something quite nonsensical. It's not meant for the whole audience. It's just meant for one segment of the audience. So it's very difficult to address precisely what he's saying. I mean, for example, when he said, you know, that Russia had lost a million men in Ukraine, clearly it's not the case. They haven't lost even 100,000. So why does he say it? I think he says it because when he says something like that, it is strictly in line with the CIA, with the security services narrative. And so he keeps to the narrative. At the same time, he then throws away another line saying, well, maybe Putin doesn't want a deal. Maybe he doesn't want a deal. Anyway, Russia is a big, you know, a big machine. I mean, in the course of events, who knows what may happen?

So I think we have to do a sort of forensic examination of which part of which audience is being addressed. And much of the addressing that we are seeing at the moment is to those that are going to determine who is going to be confirmed to his team and the ones that are not, and what price he has to pay to get that confirmation. What the, if you like, the deep state will demand in compensation for that, what structures of foreign policy they are going to insist on.

So this is the big deal, which hasn't finished yet, because as we know, it's still ongoing. And it is crucial to the future of the Trump administration, the Trump vision, if you like, for the future. So we have to be very careful. And in a sense, we have to listen very carefully to what he says. I'm speaking to you from Moscow and I would advise people to listen very carefully to what President Trump has said about talks,

the words that he uses, and also to listen very carefully what President Putin has said. I think it is very clear that what was being said is that at the technical level and in the general course of things, we know that there are sort of consultations that are ongoing all the time about coordination, about non-confrontation. There's a weekly teleconference, the Pentagon that takes part in order to make sure there's no sort of accidents that take place between airplanes and so on. And there are other ones about nuclear issues and so on that

are ongoing. And I think that what you hear from President Putin was equally clear. He says, you know, we are open to talks with Mr. Trump and we're waiting for him. That's really what I would say the position is, that they're still waiting for the big talks, and that they are waiting for the big talks, and that they are, of course, open and ready and looking for those. Does the Kremlin appreciate and understand the type of analysis you gave, which is that when Trump says something off the wall, like the Russians have lost a million soldiers, that that statement is not intended to be true and that statement is intended for a limited audience. Does the Kremlin understand

that? Or do they think that Trump doesn't know what he's talking about? Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. With courses available online 24-7 and monthly start dates, WGU offers maximum flexibility so you can focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu. They're listening very, very carefully to try and understand. So they've listened and heard very much what Marco Rubio said and realized that what he said is, you know, really quite astonishing. That was in the interview with Megyn Kelly. And they heard very clearly almost Rubio saying, you know, America is turning its face and going to present a very different face to the world from the one it did before. And that this is going to be a different world order that is emerging no longer a unipolar order but one of if you like big if you like an order of big states if you if you care multi if

you like a multi-polar big state order And they hear that and they hear other very interesting statements coming out of the administration. And they're paying close attention to those. But they are waiting to see, waiting and very interested to see, you know, what really is going to turn out, how this is going to turn out and what it means. And they're acutely aware of, if you like, the disarray in Europe and the sort of sense of turmoil, of an end of an era. And they do have a sense, you know, that this sort of turning and presenting a different face, both to allies as well as to others, is profound. I described it in a piece not so long ago.

It's also a process of process of turning the outside inside, by which I meant the US is trying to withdraw back from the periphery. And in a sense, America has to grow. It's part of its DNA. It wants to grow, to be bigger. But Trump and this administration seem to be focusing this on the Western Hemisphere, Canada, Greenland, Panama and so on like this. I mean, and you could almost say they are recolonizing the states that were already colonized. I'm talking about Europe for a start, that they're recolonizing what was already colonized instead of going out and finding fresh green territories to conquer and take.

So America is going to come bigger via Canada and Greenland and South America rather than by, if you like, exerting its authorities in the more distant past. That's what I mean. Rather like Rome did in the ancient times, when the distant provinces of the empire were drawing too much resources on Rome, it started drawing back from those areas in order to preserve the resources at the centre and to preserve the, if you like, the institutional structure in old Rome itself. And in a sense, I think that's partly what we're seeing, a complete reorganising.

What does it mean to have allies? Well, allies are people who give a return, not just simply are vassals that you order around and they clear up the mess when you order. Okay. Speaking of allies, so-called allies, let's transfer over to Israel. Big picture question. What did Israel and Netanyahu gain by their genocide in Gaza? Well, a catastrophic defeat, a major searing defeat in terms of the objectives that were at least nominally declared, that this was going to be a new Middle East that they were setting up and that they were going to defeat Hamas, and Hamas would be gone.

You'll recall that this was the prime thing. Hamas would not be in Gaza again, finished, gone. And quite clearly, the release of hostages has sent a sort of a really psychic shock through Israel. I mean, they've seen, you know, Gaza parading militarily and in, you know, in uniform and with their weapons. And they can see, I mean, it's not a question of being. And they can see. I mean, it's not a question of being told. They can see and they feel, more importantly, this great defeat. And the question is now what happens?

And all this hangs on what happens in Washington. And one of the big shifts that have come about now, because I'm speaking to you on Monday. Now, Monday is the day the first phase of the hostage release concludes, and it is supposedly the beginning of the discussions, or at least it was supposed to be by Monday the latest, that the discussions of second phase release would take place. Well, that hasn't happened. It's not at all. And in fact, what is happening is your old friend, Ron Dermott, has been given charge of this discussion. And the discussion is leaving Doha, Qatar, and is being moved to Washington directly with President Trump in these coming days. And so there is a big shift. And the question is, you know, what is Israel going to ask for? What are they going to get? And there are alternative views. But there is a binding problem that is going to be

laid in front of Mr. Trump, which is that the Israelis signed a ceasefire agreement, which leads to an end, if you like, to the end of conflict and a complete withdrawal from Gaza. And the Prime Minister and the Cabinet have promised Smotrich and Ben-Gavir the opposite, that there will be a resumption of war and a resumption of fighting. Let me just interrupt you for a minute. Has the public seen the agreement and the appendix to it, or has Netanyahu kept this stashed in the safe in his office? It's kept secret. And there have been an application to the Supreme Court to try and make it public, and it has so far not succeeded. And it is held very, very tightly,

the details of it. But some of them have been leaked out and they're in Hebrew to see. It's a very clear undertaking that then war would return for what purpose? Well, to continue the project that was started after the 7th of October, which is to cleanse Gaza of its Palestinian population. And the Israeli right in Israel want to return to that project.

And they've got a commitment from Netanyahu to do it. So how is he going to manage it with Trump? Now, I think the first thing that we will do is we understand from a government minister that what Trump said on Air Force One about some population going to Jordan, some going to Egypt from, you know, about one and a half million, I think he suggested from Gaza while it was rebuilt. Well, I think that that was coordinated by Netanyahu in order to keep his right wing at bay, to, if you like, give them

something else and a new vision, a new, if you like, a new sort of bait to follow. And they loved it. Of course they loved it. They said, this is great. We must follow up. We must make sure that this happens. And just to re-insure, to re-keep his government intact, he gave Smotrich the opportunity to forage into the West Bank. And there's heavy fighting going on in the West Bank. And Janine, I mean, really rather like Gaza, a tough, tough situation taking place there. And so how is he going to play it with Trump in these next days? We don't know, of course. And so I'm only speculating. But the informed speculation is that he is going to really try and do a deal first of all one option would be to say to trump well look i'll do phase two of the hostage release which he knows trump wants and that's what he's talking to wickoff about now in this coming period i'll do the deal and release more hostages and in return I want normalization you give me normalization

with Saudi Arabia but he may do a different option which is to say look you know Saudi Arabia may be difficult but why don't we do if you like I do the deal and you do Iran. And when the whole region is changed and being transformed by the defeat of Iran, then it will even be easier for Saudi Arabia to do a deal with Israel, normalize it. And what will Netanyahu say when Trump says, I plan on opening up an embassy in Tehran? He's going to try and negotiate this and say to Trump, look, I'm under huge pressure from my right. They want to clear Gaza of its population. They're going to go and they're going to want to start the war

again. And if you don't help me by doing something about Tehran, then I have no option. I have to keep my... it's either that or we go to elections soon, and we may go to elections next year. How precarious is Netanyahu's premiership and how precarious is his physical health? Both are very precarious now because Smotrich is promising to switch his votes. I know this is rather arcane subject, but it's an important one. The Orthodox Jews are not required to serve in the IDF, in the military capacity. They are exempt from conscription. Everyone else is obliged to conscription. And he's been trying to pass a law to preserve the Haredi exemption from conscription.

And so far, Smotrich has supported the exemption. It's very delicate because there's not quite a majority in favour of an exemption. The majority is the other way. And he's under pressure because many of his own party, which is a religious nationalist, have been serving and dying in Gaza. And his popularity is losing. So he's switched.

And now he switches to the fact that the Orthodox must serve in a military capacity in Gaza. And that will bring the government down and could provoke I don't know what. And equally, I think that Netanyahu will say to Trump if he says no to these prospects, he will say, you do know what's going to happen. I will fall. It can happen at any time. I will fall. And then there will be a perfect storm in Israel between the idea that there are no more hostages going to be ever freed and that you're condemning them to death. There's going to be a storm. And I am saying to you that the only way you can manage this is by coming to a deal with me about how we manage the question of the release of hostages,

if we have a release of hostages, because it may not happen. We're already, if you like, as I say, past the day it was supposed to start the next phase. Right. There's no one in Doha negotiating it. We're waiting for Trump. This is the first meeting that President Trump is having during this new term in office with a foreign leader. It's a profound meeting. I don't know if their bromance is on the rocks or what's going to happen. You've done a brilliant job of explaining what you think Netanyahu will

say to Trump. And yet the Secretary of State is on a fanciful mission to try and talk the president of Panama into giving up the canal. Shouldn't Marco Rubio and his senior team be meeting with Trump and Netanyahu as well? Why is Rubio banished to Panama? Well, you see, I think this is part of what I said at the beginning about audiences. And it's important to look at Trump's statements in terms of who he's addressing. And I think it was quite, did you notice that in Rubio's interview with Megyn Kelly, where was Ukraine mentioned? You know, it was a long interview.

And right at the end of it, there was a message, there was a little comment about Ukraine. It's quite clear that part of the signaling coming from Trump is, you know, Ukraine, is that important at the moment? Is this something that we should be occupying ourselves? You know, these other things are near abroad, our Western Hemisphere, China. Now, Rubio talked a lot about China, but he's not, I mean, it's in a way, you know, Iran and Ukraine suddenly are becoming

background issues, not at the forefront. And I'm sure that this is deliberate. And in a way, Trump both confuses us and at the same time sends signals. And he's very good at that. He's a showman and he knows how to do this extremely well. It makes reading it quite difficult yeah it certainly does and we all know that you know this is a major exercise the united states is changing its whole or trying to change its whole disposition its whole paradigm to face in another direction, away from its hegemonic, if you like, unipolar past,

and to give it a new faith in which it will be part of a different global order. Now, it can go well or it can have an accident on the route and turn ugly. None of us know, and it's not known, I imagine, here, which it's going to be. But people are hopeful, but cautious, I would say, would be my description of the attitude.

Alistair Crook, thank you very much for your time, my dear friend. Very, very insightful. Good luck with all of your lectures and seminars in Moscow. We'll look forward to seeing you next week, my dear friend. Travel safely and well. Thank you so much. Thank you, Judge. Judging Freedom. Coming up in just a couple of minutes at 8.45 this morning, Professor Jeffrey Sachs. At 10 this morning, Ray McGovern. At 11.30 this morning, Larry Johnson. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thanks for watching!