Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke : Does Israel Want War?

Episode Date: July 8, 2024

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which claims that the likely number of Gazans dead in the strip is 186,000. Now, we've been dealing with numbers between 37,000 and 40,000. How could this 186,000 number have come about, and do you believe it's accurate? Well, first of all, I'd say that The Lancet is a venerable, it is the leading, if you like, British journal on medicine with a very, very high reputation. I don't know exactly how they did their calculation, but I would suggest it's very, very believable, yes. And I think the reason is because you've seen the rubble, you've seen the whole high-rise buildings brought down to the ground. It's very difficult to get an estimate who was in the building, how many people have been killed. So I would think that most of the estimates that have come out so far have been on the low side. So if this is from the Lancet, I think it is very probably a correct estimate. One would think that this would be evidence in the war crimes case against the Israelis? I mean, under the international law of war, war must be proportional. How could the deaths of 186,000,

95% of whom are civilians, possibly be proportional to what happened in Israel on October 7th? Well, they're not. It's not proportionate. And indeed, there's been a new investigation by Haaretz, a liberal Israeli newspaper, showing that there was many of those that were killed, actually on the 7th of October, were killed by Israeli forces following a Hannibal directive. But they've gone into this in some detail.

It's the first time an Israeli general has done that. And the results are fairly horrifying about what happened. The confusion on the 7th of October, the Hannibal Directive being given, tanks firing into kibbutz houses, killing the majority of Israelis in order to get one Hamas, the order to shoot at all the cars so that they couldn't return to Gaza

with a possible Israeli inside it. So, I mean, we have a lowering of the estimate of those that were killed on the 7th of October by Hamas, and at the same time we have an enormous, if you like, what you call correctly a disparity of deaths on the Hamas side. It just seems nobody really cares about the Hamas deaths. And I'm very disturbed, you know, to see that whenever someone is, even I think it was one of the leading Israelis,

I can't remember if it was Gantz or others, that said, well, of course, all of those that came out of Gaza deserve to die. And, you know, this sort of language is not Israeli unhuman, inhuman. You know, you can call the Hannibal Directive whatever you want to call it, but it's really murder. It's really the government ordering the military to kill its own unarmed, innocent civilians. Is it not? It is exactly that. Yes, it is a sort of, if you like, an ultimate element of clearing the field.

And they just say we won't accept anyone to be taken hostage, whether they're Israeli or civilian or military. We just kill everyone that is in that area. So it's a very serious, it's a very serious directive. And as I say, I think it'll shock many Israelis because now it's been quite, of course, it's been exposed before. You know that and we know that from in the West. But this is the first time it's been so fully exposed in a major Israeli journal. Does the Israeli government want more war, a broader war, a seven front war, to paraphrase Prime Minister Netanyahu? I think so, but if you say it boldly, it sounds incredible, reckless, stupid.

But I think it has to be understood in this way, that there is a great sense of failure in Israel, in the military, in the political cadre, that both in Gaza it's been a humiliating failure, but equally you hear the Israelis talking about the north as a complete humiliation of Israel. And there is a sense that there's only, there's really an alternative that isn't an alternative, either war now or war later. And that's what's being put to the prime minister. And it's not just the prime minister alone who's saying this. This is probably a plurality of Israelis also take the view that, you know, as things stand, Israel or Zionism will no longer be able to exist. And so the question is, you know, how do you deal with the situation? And they look at it and they say, actually, the situation is

very favorable now. It's very favorable because we have the north of Israel cleared of civilians, which makes it much easier to manage a war when you've got no civilians to deal with as well. Secondly, because this is a period when the Air Force, if you like, has clear skies. For the next two months, there'll be a period when the skies are clear. And that's very important for air operations, which is the main, if you like, instrument of Israeli warfare when it comes to another country like that. So I think, yes, I think it's not that there's a sort of just a sort of reckless, stupid desire for war, but it is a calculation that this is the time.

And plus also because there is a weakened White House, which they believe Netanyahu can manage and manage very effectively. And so what I expect is that this will be one of the main points that will appear in about two weeks' time when Netanyahu comes to Washington to give his talk to the joint houses of Congress. And I think he's going to say something. This is my speculation. There's no direct evidence except that there's many, many hints.

And he's going to say, you know, we were attacked on the 7th of October, but it was controlled by Iran. These are all Iranian proxies that were fighting. Hezbollah, the Iraqi Hashad, the Houthis in Yemen. These are all the features of Iran, the proxies of Iran. And we have to defeat Hezbollah because we can't take our people home like that. But you have to understand we need to go to the, you like the head of the snake and also because i believe there's no evidence for this but he will say he believes that iran is within a few weeks

or even a shorter period of reaching a nuclear weapon and that therefore the United States is already committed to preventing that happening. And so he will say, I think you need to support us. This is your war as much as our war. We are in this war and for our existence. And for that we need to eliminate Hezbollah with your support and with your help and also we need to rid, if you like, the orchestrator, the conductor of the orchestra who sits in Tehran. I think you're probably right on what he's going to say. I don't know how he's going to be received here because of the current unstable status of President Biden, about which more in a minute. But look, as we speak, and now I'm quoting you, Hamas has never been stronger. Hezbollah has humiliated the IDF in the north, the IDF is exhausted and the West Bank is smoldering, all because of Netanyahu's strategy.

Am I right? No, that's right. There are, as I say, two sides. Some of the senior IDF, one of the military correspondents who is highly respected I mean, highly respected in Israel, he said, we're not ready for this war with Hezbollah. We can't fight a prolonged war. We are suffering from Gaza. We've lost people. We're exhausted. And the IDF was never made for a nine-month war. It was configured entirely in terms of the would be a call for reserves, the order would go, the reserves would join, there would be a sudden storm attack, and then it would be over and we

would be back and everything would go back to normal. And that's what we're configured for. We're not configured for this form of attrition war that we are entering into. So, I mean, I think you can see very clearly what way this is going. People are pushing back strongly. Serious Israelis who are very worried about it. General also Beert, who is a major general, has said, you know, it's going to be a disaster. They're going to strike us. But I think what you see also, which is very significant, is the former deputy commander of the Northern Command has said, listen, I mean, if we fail to stop Hezbollah's missiles firing, if we fail to stop the launch of those, then we will take the infrastructure of Lebanon back to the dark ages. Gaza will look like paradise by comparison. Now, this is an old Israeli tactic. I've seen it many

times in the past. It's the boss has gone mad tactic. You know, he's out there, he's breaking the furniture, he's breaking all the china. Quickly, hold him back, grab his coat, pull him away from this war. And the aim is that America should then say, oh, look, you know, like we did with Iran on the 13th of April, leave it to us. Don't get involved. We'll take down Hezbollah for you. We'll take down that. And then that is the first step on the escalatory ladder. And then should Iran become involved, then we will see the next step. So we're in a period where everyone is preparing for war. I know it doesn't seem like it because the newspapers are full of talk about how it's never been more promising, the idea that there's going to be a hostage deal and a release.

In fact, Netanyahu set conditions that are almost certain to mean that it's not going to happen. He's playing for time until the 24th of July. But the conditions he set, that there must be a continuation of war, run completely counter to what Hamas has said from the outset. They said there's got to be a complete end to war and a withdrawal of troops.

And he said, well, no, we reserve the right to come back in at the end of the 42 days when the hostages are discussed. And no, you can't have a ceasefire while the next stage is going on, because we will go in militarily. I think, you know, this will play out for a couple of weeks. But it's all of this is, well, this is a very popular word these days, gaslighting. But, I mean, he's really gaslighting the public and us by suggesting that it's possible

so that the blame falls on Hamas and not falls on Israel or on Netanyahu. And Hamas are playing the game too. And they're saying, yes, we can, you know, we can, we're in principle happy with the idea, we'd like to see a ceasefire and a return of hostages. They don't want to be blamed either. And everything is setting up for the prospect there is a sort of sense in the region and more widely, I think, including in Russia and elsewhere, that we may head in towards some form of war. At least people are preparing against that contingency,

even if they're not sure whether it will really happen because everything is in turmoil. Europe is in turmoil. America is in turmoil. Everything is in turmoil. America is in turmoil. Everything is in turmoil. But, of course, chaos is exactly what Smotrich and Ben-Givir and Lenin said. The best way we can sort out and remove the Arabs from this part of the world is when there is a war or chaos or some emergency that provides a pretext for taking action to clear the West Bank. How badly has the IDF suffered in Gaza? Do we know how many deaths and how many serious injuries? I

realize the Israelis don't want to publish this, but there is an aggressive journalism on the left that is looking for these numbers. Do you have any idea what they are? I have some idea, but I could never say that I'm sure that that's correct. But some Israelis are suggesting it may be as much as 5,000 dead in this process in Gaza. I think the Israeli official figures are much, much lower than that. But, I mean, they are exhausted, and there have been heavy deaths both in Gaza and in the north, where they are certainly being hidden. How deep is the cleavage between IDF leadership

and Israeli political leadership? At the moment, quite deep, because, though, again, I have to sort of be clear that some, if you like, IDF senior officers, experienced officers, say that it's never been a better moment to attack Hezbollah. This is the moment. It's the best moment. Hezbollah has lost the advantage of surprise. We've got no civilians to worry about. This is the moment. And others like Benny Morris who's saying, look, we can also, this is the best moment to go for Iran. And if we have to, we could do it alone, but then we'll have to use unconventional means to attack Iran. So there is quite strong pressure on that side too. But there's no doubt that the Israeli army is tired. They've been, if you like, mobilized for nine months now,

it's a long time. They're reserves, they're not professional soldiers. And they've taken heavy casualties. So that's certainly true. There is a great reluctance to get involved with Lebanon. There's a great fear about what it would mean in terms of missiles. But Israel believes it has some answer to that that wouldn't rely solely on the means of American warships in the Mediterranean, giving the sort of protection to Israel,

such as happened, if you like, on the 13th of April, when Iran fired its missile and drone volley towards Israel at that time. And the Americans, of course, spent a lot of money and a lot of missiles shooting them all down and effectively told Israel, stay out of it. We'll take care of it for you. Didn't that experience demonstrate the superiority of Iranian air power over Israeli air power? It did. But, you know, it's been, you know, the narrative has been so twisted. Oh, we shot them all down. I mean, they were just, you know, there were, it was 94% shot down.

Well, those are all the slow running drones that were put up by Iran simply to sort of smoke out Israeli radar positions and defense systems. They took three and a half hours to arrive. So, I mean, it wasn't a great surprise to anyone that they came there. But mixed within that was about nine serious missiles, some of which had detachable hypersonic warheads. And they arrived. And they arrived. I mean, they weren't warheads. And they arrived. And they arrived. I mean, they weren't warheads with explosives in them

or any other, if you like, device in them. They arrived in two of the main airports, Israeli airports, the most highly secure airports, and within 30 kilometers of Dimona, the Israeli nuclear center. So, yes, they have that capability. Israel for sure knows about it, but the public doesn't. And I don't think much of the Western public knows how close it was and the message that came that Iran does have the capability to enter this war. Was it a mistake for the Netanyahu government to force the evacuation of 80,000

to 100,000 settlers from northern Israel up at the Lebanese border? Did that produce bitterness and anguish and an enormous cost to the Israeli government? Yeah, it did. I think, I mean, they've done it before during the Sharon era. But I think it was based on the idea that Gaza would be settled very, very quickly. And it would be over in a couple of weeks on the past Israeli experience of what they call mowing the grass, albeit giving it a more serious mow this time. So I think so.

I think they miscalculated on that badly. And now they have a severe problem of so many displaced Israelis who are getting more and more angry. I mean, the pressures on the government are real. They're not, you know, this is not fake. This is not something just for narratives. The pressures on the government from that people to go home is great, and it's coming from all directions.

So they have to pay attention to it. And if they don't pay attention, as I say, because it's really, you know, if they're going to do a war, they either do it now or they wait till next spring and then early summer, because Israel does not do air operations over the winter and spring period. They do it only really when there are clear skies. They don't do it in bad weather and in autumn weather or fogs and low cloud. They won't do that. So it's really do it now or do it later is the view.

And they don't believe they can just keep those people in northern Israel just hanging around and waiting for another year. The pressures are too great. Pressures on Netanyahu to show a victory. So he believes somehow there will be an early victory. And we don't know quite why he has this conviction. But there are people who talk about we do have surprise weapons to use in Lebanon that might change the whole game. No one knows for sure. This is mostly speculation. But otherwise it seems very strange that he would want to go into this process when with a an adversary that has you know so many advanced missiles that can reach all parts of israel let me uh switch gears

before we finish victor orban who is the president of hungary but also now the chair of the EU, said over the weekend, he said many things over the weekend, enough for you and me to talk about for an hour, but I just want to dwell on this one thing. The EU bureaucrats want war with Russia, and he is the exception to that. Is he right? Yes, he is. And also, more than that, they are actually, it's gone beyond just narratives and talk. There is physical preparations for war. Money is being taken from all sides and being directed towards the military.

So preparation for war is afoot. He is absolutely right that NATO is hot on this and Russia knows it too. So yes, he's right. And it was a very courageous thing to do because of course he's been castigated. I mean, Brussels went into hysterics over it, saying he had no mandate, he had no right to do that, which is not strictly true, but they're claiming that. Sorry. You know, he doesn't need a mandate to say whatever he wants to say.

He doesn't need a mandate to try and bring about peace. Of course not. In any way, he's in the presidency of the council. The council is the foremost policymaking element, and he has the right to give these views to the council and to report to the council. The council may disagree with him, but they were quite incorrect in saying that the bus...

I've been in that process and had the sort of rotating president stop one's mandate and say, no, you can't continue with this. So to say that he has no mandate, well, certainly von der Leyen has no mandate. She is the servant of the council. Strictly speaking, he acts as the servant who fulfills the instructions of the council, not the other way around. Right, right. Last question. Are Europeans following what's going on in the United States

with respect to President Biden, the disastrous performance he made in the debate against Donald Trump, the now widely held perception that he is seriously diminished mentally, and the drip, drip, drip each day of more and more Democrats saying, Joe, you can't do this to us. Please step back. Stay as president, but don't seek re-election. Are the Europeans following this?

Oh, absolutely. Every twist and turn of the case they're following it. Because in Brussels, they are completely terrified by it. I think you'll see some of that in the NATO summit this week, how nervous they are about it, how worried they are that perhaps there could be a change and that they know that Trump has previously promised to sort of end NATO. So they're very, the elites are very frightened. I don't think people generally, the ordinary Europeans are particularly frightened by it. They are very interested in what's happening.

Some of them see something important, you know, that has something positive about it as we go into our sort of turmoil domestically in Europe, in France and elsewhere in Germany, the result of the MEP elections, all of this has left the whole of Europe, the EU, because it's affected by what's happening in France, because it shifts the whole calculus of the European Parliament, which then may not endorse the candidates that have been put forward for the top jobs in Europe. It may turn out to be very different. So there's turmoil and there's a sense of things in a deep sense of change that is present in Europe as well as coming from America. Did the French wake up this morning without a prime minister? Yes. And the Poles had it completely wrong.

Yes. They thought it was going to be the Le Pen's party would increase the vote. And in fact, the system for sort of stopping it worked much more effectively. Some 200 constituencies were, if you like, badgered into a system whereby there would only be one candidate that would challenge, if you like, the National Rally Party. And the others would all drop out so that it would be either Le Pen or nothing. And that was the plan of Macron to a certain extent. But what has come is shocked him and shocked

France, because who won was actually the very far left, if you call it. I don't like these terms. But the coalition of the left that was organized by Macron to sabotage any win by Le Pen actually came top this time and so would normally, if you like, form the government and they would provide the new Prime Minister for France. But the leader of the biggest element of it is Mélenchon, who is known by some, or is labelled by some in France, as Robespierre, because he's so, I mean, radical and so strong.

Of course, he doesn't have a majority in parliament, but he's the biggest of the left-wing party. And he says, I'll have nothing to do with Macron. I'm just going to, I demand that he resigns. I demand that I become the prime minister. I'm not going to cooperate with him. So, I mean, the mess is much worse than I think Macron had planned it. Wow. Alistair, thank you very much. As always, your knowledge of all these things is encyclopedic

and deeply appreciated. I'll be away for a few weeks, as you know. One of those days will be happily spent with you, and I look forward to seeing you soon. Thank you. Thank you, my dear friend. Of course. Bye. Thank you. Bye. A great interview with a great man coming up later today at 10 o'clock this morning, Ray McGovern at 11 o'clock this morning. Larry Johnson at 2 o'clock this afternoon. Kyle Anzalone. And for the rest of this week, all of your regular guests. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. I'm out.