Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke (fmr British Diplomat):Is Israel Losing the War?

Episode Date: November 27, 2023

Are truces a mere time-out in conflict zones or do they promise a glimmer of sustainable peace?" Join us as we journey into the heart of conflict management with our guest - a seasoned negotiator who has weathered the storm of truce negotiations. We unravel the intricacies of truces, their fragile nature, and the often complex dynamic that leads to their breakdown. The conversation takes a deep dive into the tactical chess game that unfolds during these temporary ceasefires, with parties repositioning, remanufacturing, and resupplying in anticipation of the next round of conflict.#IsraelGaza #GazaUnderAttack #IsraelUnderFire #Palestine #MiddleEastConflict #Ceasefire #IsraeliOccupation #FreePalestine #GazaStrip #WarCrimes #HumanRights #UNResolution #PeaceInTheMiddleEast #InternationalRelations #PrayForGaza #Turkey #Iran #China #RussiaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, November 27th, 2023. In America, that long, great Thanksgiving holiday weekend is over. We begin a new weekend. We begin with Alistair Crook on, is Israel losing the war? But first this. Can you believe the chaos confronting Americans today? The government is out of control. Debt is out of control. And have you heard? The dollar is under attack. This will soon be replaced by digital currency. No more paper cash. It's coming fast. So you need to get educated in other ways to protect and preserve the wealth you already have.

What happens if the government destroys the United States dollar? I don't know, but I do know they can't destroy gold or silver or the value of it. That's why it's so important that you learn now how to transfer your wealth into gold and silver. So educate yourself about investing in precious metals. Take charge of your retirement with gold-backed IRAs and you can transfer a portion of your existing IRAs

tax and penalty free. So don't procrastinate. Take control. Do the right thing for you and your family. Go to learjudgenap.com or call 800-511-4620. Alistair, welcome back to the show, my dear friend. So a number of events have occurred in Israel on which you and some of our other colleagues have reported that don't seem to make it in the mainstream media. There's been the seizure of an Israeli-owned vessel. There have been strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq, not in Israel, of course. There have been over 1,000 missiles fired by Hezbollah, and there was a hot war in the West Bank. Why is it that we don't hear about any of this?

I think it's a deliberate strategy to, if you like, sort of quieten this war down in the interests of the United States, and, well, Biden particularly, is to sort of suggest that it is somehow going to be normalized and it will all be fine. And all that really remains is to find a way to sort out Gaza for the future. And then we can go back to the old playbook and we'll have sort of talks with the Palestinian Authority, which is now pretty well defunct and totally discredited, about some sort of political solution for the future.

Only that's not going to happen because no one wants to take part in that. None of the Arab states want to be involved in that. They've all also very clearly, no, we are not going to police it. We're not going to be a sort of Vichy force in Gaza. And no, we don't accept under any pretext the removal of the population from Gaza. But that's, I think, the plot is to try and keep it low, all the tension. So these things are just being magicked away. They're not being reported. It's actually four ships now. The Houthis have taken, Ansala has taken, it's taken four ships now in this period. At the moment, the north is quiet. The north in Lebanon, Hezbollah is observing

the truce for now. Is Israel in greater danger than the Western mainstream media would have us all believe oh absolutely in great danger because it has an element in the cabinet including netanyahu who may are making this into an epic struggle um to take any idea of a palestinian state off the table that's what's what's going on in the West Bank at the moment, because the settlers basically control, have the leverage, have more leverage than anyone, and can turn up the heat or turn it down as they like. And so you have many fronts open on Israel. It's not only Hezbollah in the north. It is the Iraqi front.

It is the Yemen front. And it could be more, depending on what happens perhaps in the next few days or the week. These times. New York Times reported over the weekend that more women and children have died in a month and a half in Gaza than in two years in Ukraine. Are these credible numbers? And if so, how can Prime Minister Netanyahu possibly justify them? They're very credible numbers. He doesn't justify them.

They just redefine the conflict and the cabinet members. And it's not just Netanyahu. I think it's a mistake to focus too much on Netanyahu because the cabinet members, if anything, are more radical than Netanyahu. Not he is being the sort of the contrarian in the group. They are more radical than he. And so they simply say these people are all connected. There's no innocence in Gaza. These people are, if you like, collaborators with Hamas, and therefore they are legitimate military targets. So they don't try and justify it.

They just say, this is part of our plan to get rid of Hamas. And these people are all one way or another, if you like, party to this Hamas government. You have participated in the negotiations for truces. Do ceasefires or truces, whatever you want to call them, do they spread? Do they have a life of their own? Do people have a small period of exaltation and so everybody stops fighting for longer? Or do the troops just rearrange and remaneuver and resupply and go back at it? a truce because the ceasefire has some sort of legal context behind it it is sort of set within a legal framework whereas a truce or in the arab expression of hudna which dates back to the time of the prophet is just time out now what happens is um mostly most of the truces I've been involved with, the parties have been repositioning for the next round of fighting. And it is time up.

And my efforts were really to try and see if there was any chance of moving towards a more political, if you like, strategy. Mostly, that didn't occur. The truces broke down. They're very easy to break down. One of them broke down just from one statement by a senior Israeli general, and the thing collapsed. Another one broke down because an extraneous group put a bomb and a bus in Jerusalem and that destroyed that. Another one broke down because Israel dropped a one-ton bomb on the main negotiator I was dealing with, even though they know the negotiations were in progress.

So, I mean, you know, everyone is maneuvering to try and get, if you like, psychological advantage, not necessarily, you know, this is, it's not tied to a political outcome. There's a point, you know, ceasefire is tied to a political outcome. A truce is just what it says. It is time out for a specified number of days. It could be a little longer, but there is no legal element to it. And then it's very easy for it to come apart.

In my experience, it nearly all does. And why I say this point about, your point about does it spread, it's really important this, that quite often I was asked by the European Union, the High Representative, and said, you know, try and get quiet in Bethlehem. Just at least try and sort of establish, if you like, a lily pad of quat in Bethlehem, even though. And I said, you know, it doesn't work like that. And, of course, it didn't work like that because you can have quat in Bethlehem, and then the Israelis would go into Hebron

and kill a number of Palestinians, and then the whole of the Palestinian territories would be in an uproar. You can't, if you like, compartmentalize and say, we'll have quiet here and then we won't. And the point here is that Israel has a number of open fronts. And as you mentioned, I mean, it's not just Gaza. It's what's happening in West Bank. It's what's happening in the north of Lebanon. It's what's happening in West Bank. It's what's happening in the north of Lebanon. It's what's happening in an indirect way from Yemen and even what's happening in Iraq indirectly.

So any one of those, if they are mishandled or deliberately escalated, can destroy a truce easily. I assume that the truce or truces that existed over the weekend with the various exchange of hostages and captives. But by the way, why are the Israelis being held by Hamas called hostages and the Palestinians being held by Israel called prisoners. Aren't they all hostages? They are all hostages, yes. I mean, most of those being held have had no due process at all in terms of the legal process or a court hearing. They're just arrested, and some of them are arrested when they're five or six and held for eight or nine years without any trial or any judicial process. So I think it's fairly fair to call them hostages rather than prisoners.

No legal process. The negotiations that lead to the exchange of these human beings, I'm assuming they're not face-to-face. I mean, you told us that you were negotiating, and all of a sudden, one of the negotiators that you were dealing with was destroyed because the Israelis killed him. Aren't hostage negotiators generally immune from violence during the process of negotiation? No, no. This is what I mean. It's not a formalized thing like a ceasefire. immune from violence during the process of negotiation. No, no, this is what I mean. It's not a formalized thing like a ceasefire.

And you have to be very, very careful. When I was doing that sort of negotiation, I mean, I was took huge care to make sure someone hadn't put a satellite beacon into my clothing or i mean i never took a telephone anywhere in in the west bank like that i i would be taken to if you like a little boy would lead me by the hand and i'd go from house to house to house through the back doors and back ways so that any overhead any overhead of of surveillance by Israel wouldn't end up after I'd been there, the next day there would be a missile through the window and the negotiator would be dead. That was the last thing I wanted.

So I had to take these sort of precautions. You have written about an effort by the EU to bribe Egypt and Jordan, a failed effort by the EU. What is this all about? This was the CIA plan. It was first mentioned by Cy Hersh. I told him it won't work, it wouldn't happen. But he said, look, you know, there is going to be, the plan is that, you know, that all of the inhabitants of Gaza will be moved to the Sinai and a tented village will be set up

and they will be established there. And I said, it's not going to happen because, no, it won't happen because the army won't allow it to happen. They're not going to have two million Hamas supporters. Egypt is in a critical state now. To have that, you know, Egypt is very much in its poor and rural areas, a Muslim Brotherhood area. And so Hamas, which was an offshoot, it's no longer really Muslim Brotherhood anymore.

But, I mean, it would cause mayhem in Egypt. And even if they have some sort of leverage over President al-Sisi, and I believe they do because of his debts, and not his debts, but Egypt's debt. And so the European Union, von der Leyen comes along and offers this large sum of money to erase the debts and make life easy and say, now can you take these Palestinians temporarily into Sinai? And of course, they'll never go back to Gaza. I mean, everyone knows who's followed Palestinian

history knows that when you're temporarily removed to another country. I mean, they're still waiting. The 48 Palestinians are still sitting in the same refugee camp where they were dumped at the end of a railway line from 48 in Syria. The same ex-army barracks that were used at that time. They came up in cattle trucks and were unloaded into those barracks. They're still there. You can see them. My wife has often been to those places. Still there, unchanged.

So no one, no Palestinian believes in the story by the EU that, you know, oh, it will only be temporary and you will be able to go back later. It's never happened and won't happen. So she went to al-Sisi and I guess to the King of Jordan or she communicated with them, offered them cash to take refugees and they turned her down. They said no.

Yeah, exactly. And all the Arab states are absolutely clear. They're not going to act to, you know, the Nakba, the great catastrophe. 48, when so many Palestinians were forcibly removed from their villages and homes and sent overseas, is still a burning issue. When you go to the refugee camps in Lebanon or in Syria, they still have their front door keys and they proudly show them to you. I mean, they still entertain the idea that one day they are going home and they're going to reclaim their villages. Of course, Israel destroyed most of the villages.

They bulldozed them. So, you know, they won't be doing that. But, I mean, there is a very strong sort of sense. They don't want to have another Nakba, another 48, when, you know, some of the sort of Israeli military movements went in and just killed Palestinians in their villages and drove them by fear and intimidation to flee the country and flee off to Jordan or other places for fear for their lives. And that's why there's such a resistance to, you know, what some in the West see as very sensible.

Now, I don't know if von der Leyen's ideas on this were actually cleared. Remember, von der Leyen, she's president of the commission. Actually, foreign policy is decided by the Council of Ministers and not by the commission. So I don't know who gave authority for that because I know the council is deeply divided on Palestinian policy. What message is the Biden administration sending to the Israeli government? What pressure, if any, are they putting on the Israeli government to extend the truce and stop the killing? I mean, the story in the, I don't remember if it was yesterday or Saturday,

the New York Times, about the massive amount of killing, more women and children killed in a month and a half in Gaza than in nearly two years in Ukraine was an eye-opener. What message is Biden sending Netanyahu? I think his message is a very simple one to Netanyahu, that he's saying, let me help you, and by helping you, you help us. In other words, you know, we are desperately trying to manage the poor public relations picture that is coming out of Gaza. We're doing our best to manage that. So help us along by extending the truce, getting more of the hostages out. That helps us to help you.

That's the message that he's giving. He hasn't got any credible leverage over Netanyahu. And I think, you know, it's possible there'll be an extra day or two, but then after that, we're starting to talk about men. And Hamas has made it clear that when it comes to the Israeli men who they will regard as soldiers, and most of them are, even if they're in the settlements, because they are trained by the IDF and sometimes armed by the IDF, the Israeli military, then I think it will be the Hamas tactics change. Then it's all for all, and they demand a complete release of the 6,000 prisoner hostages that are held by Israel

in return for the hostages that they hold, some of whom are very senior. I think there's one who's a major general that is held, Israeli major general that is held in Gaza. I want to read to you a line from your own column of two days ago, in which you quote a leading Israeli, pro-Israel commentator. You might think that a presidential visit, a presidential speech, three Secretary of State visits, two Secretary of Defense visits, the dispatching of two aircraft carrier groups, a nuclear submarine and marine expeditionary unit, and the pledge of $14.3 billion in emergency military aid are testament to the unwavering support the U.S. is extending to Israel.

Think again. Exactly. What is his point? His point was very clear, that actually the support for Israel in the United States is fragmenting and fragmenting to a degree that imperils the 24 election calculus, but also goes further, that imperils really the whole future of Israel

Because the whole state of Israel was based on fairly Fragile pillars, but one of those pillars Was the financial and full support of the United States not not only legal support, the federal support, but the support from people who collected money at synagogues and elsewhere and wealthy Americans who supported the whole concept of Israel. And this was the think again. In other words, he was saying, you know, the interests of the United States and Israel are now separating, are dividing. And that is a great danger for Israel if it loses the support

of the United States. I mean, even if it's not going to happen tomorrow, but I mean effectively, particularly amongst the younger generation. It's very obvious amongst Generation Z and their associates. They are completely in a different place to their elders. You look at the support, the elders still support Israel, the younger generation, the Millennials and the Generation Z and the Generation X are fully against Israel. And that is worrying the Democratic Party apparatus greatly. And also the fact because, you know, actually Arabs have a predominant influence in

the swing states for the next election, critical swing states, particularly states like Michigan, where it looks as if the Arab population might change the whole calculus. How long will Israeli public opinion support the Netanyahu government and support this invasion and eradication of Gazans? Well, that's a very important question, and this is what is going to be tested. Netanyahu and the cabinet are making a big bet that Israeli public opinion support and will continue to support

what we've seen in Gaza being resumed after the truce and that it will be extended to the south. The statistics suggest that they're right. It's something like 86% want to see a crushing blow delivered in Gaza. But there's also the division because the families of the hostages held by Hamas have been very successful in generating public sympathy. So the public is divided. They want revenge in Gaza, but they also want the hostages back.

And the cabinet has to juggle that. And that is why they have reluctantly started talking about perhaps an extra few days for getting the hostages back. I mean, both sides understand we're not going to go to the full release of the male hostages in Gaza and the Palestinian security prisoners held in Israel. We're not going to go that far. But that's what Netanyahu's trying to sort of juggle this so that he can try and keep public support. So he's going to give a little more on that. But the aim of the government, as they expressed it very clearly to the military in these last days,

is that it starts again when the truce ends, the military attack, and furthermore, that they plan to extend it to the south. Politically speaking, is Netanyahu a dead man walking, as many of his adversaries and even some of his colleagues in Likud have said? That's the general consensus. But I believe there's always a danger of underestimating the people you don't like and tend to write them off as stupid or not very competent. And that's what's happening to Netanyahu. But I believe he does have a strategy.

And his strategy is this. First of all, his strategy is to rely on the overwhelming support for renewed military action in Gaza. The second part of that strategy, which is equally important as you see it, is this Manichaeanism of saying that this is a struggle of dark and light, of cosmic evil, a struggle against Hamas and the satanic forces of Gaza. Gaza is an evil state that we're at war with. And all of this is designed really for those of his cabinet members who want to take the idea, even the thought of a two-state solution out off the board.

And Netanyahu said that many years ago in an interview, and he said, you know, in the next war, with luck, if we play it right, we can get rid of all the Arabs from the land of Israel and also sort out Jerusalem into the bargain. So that's what his strategy is. You may disagree with it. I know Netanyahu a little.

I don't care for him. But let's not think that just because you don't care for someone that they're not coming as a fox and that they don't have strategy. Got it. All right. So when members of his cabinet refer publicly to the Palestinians as less than human, when a former member of his cabinet says we're going to take the capital city of Gaza and turn it into a soccer field. When these harsh statements are made, are they generally approved beforehand? Are these trial balloons or are these just fanatics emoting, notwithstanding the political consequences of what they say? No, I mean, it's quite clear. This is the sort of sentiment that is growing and is becoming prevalent. I mean, it's not just that, you know, one woman, that Chaker Ale Ayelet that said that, but there's been people like Giora Aylan, who's a very, could regard it as a very sound, sensible military person,

and who said, listen, you know, actually humanitarian pain in Gaza plays to our strengths because, you know, even if it turns into an epidemic and many people die of disease and things, then we'll lose less troops in taking Gaza because there'll be more dead Palestinians. I mean, it's become, you know, I think there's been a complete loss of any form of empathy. There's no empathy now for 80 to 90 percent of Israelis, Palestinians. They do regard them, they don't, they regard them as lesser life. That's all I can say. And some people take it even further because they've written very clearly, and people like ministers like Smotrich and Ben-Gavir say very clearly that these people are as evil as those of the 7th of October that came into Israel. So it's very much the prevailing mood, and we are heading, there is a danger that we could head

to the sort of cosmic war of, if you like, the view of the founding of greater Israel against the view of the Islamic world, that they are going to found, if you like, a Palestinian state on all the Palestinian lands that belong to them. The two are irreconcilable. And it could become, and this is why I'm saying the external groups, the external fronts that are open are so important because this is what they're waiting for when it turns into this,

if you like, this is the Armageddon strategy. And this is what some of the cabinet say overtly. Smotrich says overtly, they're working towards the Armageddon scenario when eventually Israel will take everything and drive out all the Arabs from the territories. And that's very serious. Will Hezbollah, Iran, Egypt, Turkey allow Israel to take everything? No, I don't think they will.

I don't think they will do that. And I'll say this as clearly as I can. You know, this isn't being played by, you know, just sort of ad hoc off the top of the head. There is a plan and a staged plan for this eventuality. It was not, you know, Sinoir is not stupid. He knew exactly. He's been 22 years in an Israeli prison. He speaks perfect Hebrew.

He knew exactly how the psychology of Israel and how it would react to what happened on the 7th of October. That was part of the plan. That was a strategy to change the whole, if you like, the balance, the whole calculus of this and to change the paradigm, smash the paradigm, and put this whole question of the Palestinian state back on the front burner. And that's happened for sure. And I think what we see as a result of this occasion, which again is important, if you watched,

I don't suppose it was shown much on television in the United States, but if you watch the scenes when the Palestinian prisoners returned on the Red Cross buses in the West Bank, I mean, it was euphoric and it was, I mean, just full of energy and determination and sort of nationalism and Islamic as well. I mean, just full of energy and determination and sort of nationalism. And Islamic as well. I mean, they come out of the bus and they kiss the ground of Palestine. I mean, very emotional, very powerful images. All around the Islamic world are seeing these images.

And why it's so important is that for the first time since I suppose 1958 or something you're seeing somehow a meshing of the sentiment of Islam with Arab nationalism coming together in not an organized religious way but in an organic way and And that might be a very powerful combination. Alistair, thank you for a great, great conversation. Thank you for your intellect and your analysis, as always. We'll see you again next week. All the best. Thank you very much. Thank you. Of course.

Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, this morning, 10 and 11 Eastern, and at three this afternoon Eastern, Colonel Douglas McGregor. We're just at the cusp of 240,000 subscribers. We may have broken it while this show was on. I don't know. But we'll surely, if we haven't, we'll surely break it today. Thanks to you. And then on the march to a quarter of a million by Christmas. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.