Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke : How Saudi Arabia Is Collapsing

Episode Date: October 12, 2026

Alastair Crooke : How Saudi Arabia Is CollapsingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Fragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish

fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Monday, October 12, 2006. Alastair Crook will be with us, and just a moment, how unstable is Saudi Arabia becoming? But first this. Today's headlines aren't just bleak. They're an indictment of a government that has abandoned the Constitution. You are witnessing the direct result of the Federal Reserve's relentless war on the value of your dollar.

For centuries, gold and silver have been the ultimate shield against the same. state's favorite tools, monetary expansion and runaway inflation. To protect your wealth is to protect your liberty. And you can do that with gold and silver. I own both and continue to buy because J.P. Morgan is now lying gold at over $6,300 an ounce. And Bank of America is suggesting silver could reach $300. That's great news for precious metal investors. Don't wait for Washington to fix a mess they created. Secure your freedom today. Take possession of your precious metals or diversify your IRA by adding gold and silver.

Call 800, 511, 4620 to see if you qualify for up to $20,000 in bonus medals. That's 800, 5114620 or go to Learjudgeonap.com. Alster Crook, welcome here, my dear friend. And you have written a fascinating piece about MBS, Mohammed bin Salman, more in danger of internal collapse than from the Houthis externally. But before we get there, I want to ask you a few questions about what President Trump claimed over the weekend is a deal between the United States and Russia. The president claims that American oil companies are now relieved of the sanctions embargo and permitted to buy diesel fuel from Russia. If true, this is, of course, in violation of two federal statutes, one of which, named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham, President Trump just signed into law about three weeks ago. In your view, is this a real deal, or is this another one of Trump?

confabulations. Oh, well, I mean, I think, yes, I think there's going to be a little bit of diesel supplied by Russia to the United States, whether it's illegal or not. I don't suppose Trump cares. Everything is now about the midterms. And I think the price of diesel, I mean the price of diesel for American farmers, for delivery truck drivers and everything is becoming the issue in this election. So this is a gimmick, just a gimmick. It will not really, the balance of diesel in the world will not change significantly. It will be at the most a few days of extra.

In fact, you know, inventories are really now out. So across the world. So it's not going to and it's a drop in the ocean, this element. And it's all about just saying that it's going to be, you know, prices are coming down. I don't know if there's been a dip in the diesel price in the United States, but I'd be surprised if there were. Anyway, I think it's a sign of desperation about the forthcoming elections. Not anything that means anything in terms of the relationship with Russia or between Russia and Ukraine. This is just an election gimmick because they're fast approaching.

There's been no appreciable dip in the price of diesel yet. I can't imagine that whatever deal they agreed to that the diesel fuel is actually here yet. Who knows if it's even removed from the ground yet, much less put in tankers and on its way to the United States. Shortly after he announced this deal, the president demanded the president. President Zelensky of Ukraine stepped down. Was this part of the agreement with President Putin? Well, I'll add a little paradox. I can't tell you that it's absolutely true. But recently, the reports I get are that Iran has been exporting diesel to Russia via the Caspian Sea. It's been developing. A lot of its imports come via the Caspian. It shares a common

if you like, Waterway with Russia at the Caspian. And so it's been sending diesel. So it's quite possible that Russia will be shipping some diesel to the United States that actually has come from Iran. That would make a delicious new story, wouldn't it? Well, it sure would. So the United States big oil indirectly is buying diesel fuel,

from Iran, even though... Far Russia. Right. Even though the United States is trying to undermine the Iranian society with an illegal war, the United States CIA is showing Ukrainian soldiers and contractors how to aim equipment and kill Russians, even though Russian, big oil, is permitted to sell diesel to American big oil. I mean, you can't make this stuff up. Does the president really want the war in Ukraine to end? Because if he does, he could stop it with a phone call. Just bring the CIA home. Well, I don't know what I don't know. I mean, you, you pose a more difficult question because actually, you know, this is really something like this is a grand design behind this war against Russia. It's not

something that is ephemeral and has just come into being with this president. There's a grand design. It's been there for a long, long time. In fact, Benjamin Israeli in 1854 referred to this grand design. And of course, that grand design is all about, if you like, now it's become all about a war by the security strata against civilizational states, whether it is Russia, whether it is Iran, whether it is China. And it's become complex because the United States really doesn't have the ability to escalate militarily against China, Russia or Iran. So the wars are sort of morphing into a single war, if you like. Iran, if you like, Ukraine is just one place in this war, one battlefield. But the war is a wider war, and it's a war about values, and it's a war, therefore, which Russia and China and Iran

are managing in a different way. It does not so much each one on its own against the United States, is bizarre to maintain its primacy over world affairs. They are now looking at it as a means to bring about a new global order, to, in fact, to undermine and eliminate the existing global order to allow space for civilizational states to come into being. And that is the purpose of it. It is a much bigger war, war than that. So what, whether I saw, the answer to your question is whether Trump or Trump thinks about it is irrelevant.

The grand strategy from the people, if you like, the supranational power that is pursuing the grand strategy, clearly is going to pursue this war to keep the situation as it used to be, if they can, where after the Cold War, the United States made the decisions. And this is what is being challenged. How badly is Ansarala damaging Saudi Arabia? And how grave is this for the stability of Muhammad bin Salman as the authoritarian leader of the country? Well, Ansala is inflicting great damage on Saudi infrastructure and also on their ability to export oil,

either by the Red Sea or any other way out to the country. So Ansala are damaging it in two ways. One way is simply by destroying the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia by closing its airports. As the Houthis and Ansala point out very clearly, Saudi Arabia has destroyed every airport in Yemen. So, you know, what's the problem with us destroying their airports and closing their airspace?

So they are both, if you like, now introducing an air siege to the, if you like, blockade on shipping, and they are destroying the infrastructure. Why is this so important? Well, I mean, apart from the fact that that infrastructure is not infrastructure that will be able to, you know, be quickly replaced. I mean, that infrastructure will take five years or more

to begin to sort of put back into working order. It's very sophisticated stuff there. and the abilities to repair it are going to be limited. But that's not really the point. At this stage, Riyadh is not exporting. It is not earning revenue. Yet, most of its imports and most of the imports have to be paid for out of revenues from the sale of oil.

I mean, all that it imports has to be paid. So a huge deficit, trade deficit, of course, is going to build up as a consequence of this. A big trade deficit. And so how can, if you like, Mohammed bin Salman MBS deal with us? There's only two ways. One would be that, you know, he will just have to let the value of the currency decline. or he will have to keep the peg and he will have to sell foreign exchange reserves.

But that will cause a big consequences for the United States if they start selling their reserves. Look what happened when Japan started doing that. And it was only, if you like, I think it sold off something like $89 billion. But I mean, you know, Saudi Arabia will need to sell off a lot more of that. And then a consequence of that, of course, is nonetheless the costs in Saudi Arabia,

their standard of living for Saudis is going to decline very sharply. So that's the answer. But this isn't the real threat to MBS. The real threat is an internal threat. So, I mean, I've seen, you know, the story is saying he's moving. Wall Street Journal that MBS is moving from dugout to dugout some deep, if you like, safe places under his palaces for fear of a Houthi assassination. Actually, he's frightened of his assassination by one of his own family or by a military officer. After all, it was in

that a king was assassinated in his royal palace. And who assassinated him? Well, it wasn't an outsider. It was his own nephew, a royal prince assassinated him, shot him in the head as he lent forward for the prince to kiss his forehead. They shot him and killed King Faisal. Why? Because he was engaged in a little.

liberal policy of liberating from the strict Wahhabi, if you like, dogma. He was moving away from that. He was introducing television. And it seems likely that this was the thing that finally persuaded this young 26-year-old to put a bullet in the head of the king. king in the palace. And that stayed. They needed, the Saud needed that support, needed the actual, the ulama, the elders of the Wahhabi, known as

a sheriff, a family, the family. They needed them to give them, if you like, credibility and legitimacy. And so they had to move right away from this very. if you like a liberal approach, changing reformist approach of Saudi Arabia, until, and that's continued until what, 2030, Vision 2030, when MBS came in and he started introducing, you know, entertainment areas and tourists, and it was a sort of youth culture that he's introduced, which is, of course, alienated this religious leadership,

who are already have been sort of diminished by MBS, and they will not support him, and nor will many of the tribes and clans, because he's taken away from them, their privileges, their tribal rights to a share of the oil revenues, The stipends have been reduced to a few people. And it causes a great deal of resentment and jealousy. You can have two officers in the army,

one not very well paid at all, but who is a highly placed tribal member. And then you have someone who enjoys a royal stipend, who's very well paid. And so there's a lot of grievance and resentment. And then MBS has just stolen lands, expropriated them as the correct word, for these mega projects, these vanity projects of nealm and other exercises. So there's a great deal of antipathy.

And there are, he has effectively cut off all the pillars of his support. The paradox is he's cut it off by his own hand. He has, if you like, divided the military, set them against one another, used the National Guard to sort of keep an eye out for any disaffection within the army, which is immediately dealt with. He has diminished the role of the religious authorities. He has undermined all of the aspects of the legitimacy, of the al-saud in this period.

So it's much more likely that the threat is going to come from inside than just from the Houthis. The Houthis, as far as I know, have never contemplated that sort of assassination. It's always possible. But what he fears most of all is that when they're ordered to go up and attack the Houthis in Sarnar or something, one of the F-15 pilots will turn his plane around and will bomb the palace. And in fact, I mean, someone told me very plainly that he'd heard exactly that from one young man.

He was saying that he was there with someone, this is someone who knows Saudi Arabia very well, talking to a prominent tribal figure. And he asked a young man, what is he going to do? And he said, I'm going to be a pilot. And he was asked, you mean you're going to fly to Rome and Paris? No, I'm going to fly an F-15. And when the time is right, quote, when the time is right, I'm going to bomb the al-Souder. So, you know, that's what we're talking about.

That's sort of sentiment. Are any of these princes or churches or church? tribes that are so adverse to Muhammad bin Salman in league with the Revolutionary Guard in Iran? There are, and I've seen many reports, I can't verify them, but I've seen for some time from completely different sources, that there was a meeting of the IRGC, I think, in Oman, with a number of the tribal leaders. And what was discussed was a sort of new dispensation for Saudi Arabia where the oil, wealth, and the prerequisites of the tribes would be restored

in an equal and a fair balance, and some of their lands returned to them. And that it would be more of a federal system rather than a monarchy. There wouldn't be just a one-family rule. It would be much more a sort of a larger gathering of people and a sort of parliament rather like the, I'm not saying that's the model, but like an Afghan Jirga, where many more people come and to discuss policy in that way.

That's what's been missing because it's been done in his desire to reform the, country it's been totally autocratic his authority alone operates no one else is and so none of these tribal leaders and then of course you remember what happened to them at ritz cullton where they some of these senior tribal leaders were taken into the hotel some of them were badly treated even tortured it said and then they had to sign over millions and billions of money to MBS, which he took. I mean, that was not only the stealing of their wealth,

but a huge humiliation for, you know, Arab principle to be treated like that. And the president of the United States over the weekend in one of his statements said, well, maybe we'll come to the aid of MBS. What will happen if the U.S. military? attacks the Houthis. Does the president not recall what happened the last time he ordered the military to attack the Houthis? But how do you attack mountain tribesmen? I mean, you know, it's not so obvious how you do that.

I mean, unless you resort to the most extreme methods like sort of, you know, drop, depleted uranium over the entire area rendering it unavailable for any sort of agriculture for the next 15 years, this happened in Lebanon. I mean, you can't, I mean, how are you going to fight this war? And you know, the Houthis have just, you know, they just had another million man march. people took to the street marching in support of the government and supporting of the war against Saudi Arabia. And they're moving into the three, particularly into those three provinces, which were annexed by Saudi Arabia, I think, in 34, 1934. And of course, the Houthis and

Anzala and others have got tribal links into those, into those, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, provinces, deep tribal links, and they've got tribal links beyond that, and links further afield. So, you know, I mean, this is not beyond imagination that some of the tribal leaders in Saudi Arabia would be sitting either with the, either with Ansala representatives. After all, Hezbollah has had representatives and working, in that area for several years, and the IRGC has been there. IRGC has always been very good at talking to everybody. Look at Iraq as an example. They've always talked to all the sides.

Every single component of Iraqi society, none of them are excluded, all of them have been brought in. It's often surprising to people how much the... that the Iranian, the IRGC, have always been willing to talk to their supposed adversaries. Wow. Just on a little humorous note, last night in Tennessee, campaigning in a red state, but I guess the polls show that the local politicians wanted him there, President Trump said he wants to change the name of the Atlantic Ovales,

ocean to the Trump ocean. Do you believe this? Of course I believe it. This is entirely consistent with his strange imagination. Yeah, I believe it entirely. I have no idea what the electorate in America will make of it though. But it's, yes, entirely credible. Right. Good boy. And just as just as just as the whole story about the diesel. You know, it's incredible because it is such a sort of drop in the bucket, but nonetheless, you know, it'll be spun as some great initiative ahead of the election that prices are about to drop down. In fact, I mean, the situation is getting so dire in terms of diesel everywhere that, you know, it would take a massive change now. And even that wouldn't be enough because the problem is with shipping and the problem

is with, you know, finding, getting the right distillates refined to really improve. I mean, the situation has become one of supply lines as well as flow lines, you know, the actual amounts that are and even if they're there, some of them are in the wrong place or in the wrong, you know, and there's no refineries that are suitable. Some of the governors of American states, particularly Republicans, have suspended the collection of state sales taxes on the sale of gasoline, which can save you from 25 to 38 cents a gallon. and they've just quietly done this for the next 60 days.

Again, for the same reason, the President Trump announced this ridiculous agreement, supposedly, we haven't heard from the Kremlin yet, with President Putin to lower prices just in time for the midterm elections. I think it's too little too late. Yes. Well, Alstair, thank you. Thank you very much, my dear friend. All the best. Have a good week. We'll look forward to seeing you next week.

Thank you so much, Judge. And all the best to you too. Thank you. Coming up later today, if you're watching us live in 32 minutes at 9 o'clock this morning, Larry Johnson. At 2 this afternoon, is there really a deal between President Putin and President Trump? Scott Ritter. And at 3.30 this afternoon, Jeffrey Sachs. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.