Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Neocons Deluding Themselves.

Episode Date: December 2, 2024

Alastair Crooke: Neocons Deluding Themselves.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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800-511-4620, or go to learjudgenap.com. Noster Crook, good day to you, my friend, and welcome here. As I said earlier, coming to you today from my office in New York City, hence the different background, and I have other commitments,

hence my different different more formal, more British attire. Welcome to the room. What is the long war to reaffirm Western and Israeli supremacy? That's the war we're in. It's a war that is pursued by the, if you like, the permanent security establishment in the West to keep primacy, to keep America leading the world, and to keep the financial benefits that come with that, which are anomalous. And do the neocons actually believe that if we end one war, we have to start another? I mean, state it differently. Do they truly believe that Iran is a threat to the national security of Western countries in general and the United States particularly?

No, not at all. But they think it might be a threat to Israel. And because Iran is a threat to Israel, what will the United States do about it? We have to see, but I mean, you know, previous threats to Israel were Iraq, Libya, Syria. These were all listed, sometimes they'll go in a clean break strategy that was, I think, put out by Richard Perle and others of the new concept, 96, and it suggested that four states needed to be regime changed. And the last one was Iran. But it included, of course, Syria and Lebanon, and all of these countries had to be overthrown, many of them partly because in Wolfowitz view, they were quite close to Russia.

And he wanted Russia out of the Middle East completely. Well, obviously, that hasn't worked because Russia is very much, again, in the Middle East. So but that was the original plan, to go and to remove all the obstacles to Israeli primacy. Not the same as United States primacy, but Israeli primacy. Of course, Israel would do many things that America wanted it to do. But Israeli primacy, Israeli interests are not quite the same as American interests in the region. And indeed, America's had to pay a price for this, quite a heavy price in terms of its interests of, if you like, making these Netanyahu wars in the region.

Is the West still determined to put missiles on Russian borders wherever they can, notwithstanding the lesson of Ukraine? Or does the West not even perceive the lesson of Ukraine? I mean, I think basically, I mean, Ukraine is part of this, but the basic element of it is much more straightforward. It is that the United States and the security establishment is not prepared to allow the heartland of Asia. What Mackinder in the 19th century said, who controls East Europe, controls the heartland, and who controls the heartland?

That's the whole area going over to China. Huge area, Siberia, right up to the borders of China. Who controls that controls the world. And they're not prepared to see that willy-nilly being taken into Russia's, China's and the BRICS preserve because it's too much of a loss. All the raw materials, all the energy, all these things that matter so much to modern society are there. So, yes, they are indeed intent on this. And we're seeing this play out even today in Syria,

where Syria, which in 2011 was targeted by the United States for its support, for its connections with Russia, but also for its support for the resistance for Hezbollah. And today, Syria is under attack. Lebanon was under attack the other day, and now we have the war extending greatly throughout the region. I mean, a complete realignment of the war is taking place in the region. Paul Jay Is it a coincidence that within hours of the

implementation of the Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire, the war seems to have, and actually has, heated up substantially in Syria. Is that a coincidence? Absolutely not. Not at all. And you can see this quite clearly, because what was the last thing that happened, just as the ceasefire was going,

it's not really a ceasefire, it's a truce, but the truce went into effect. What happened was that israel attacked all of the crossings um between lebanon and syria by which hezbollah might move into syria to support the syrian government against what happened in the next few days, which was the emergence of this large militarized force in Idlib in the west of Syria that has now taken over Aleppo. And the big question was really, you know, was anyone aware that this was going to happen? Yeah, sure. Israel was aware because they prepared for it.

Secondly, the United States, of course. In fact, the head of Shembet was discussed in Turkey, discussing matters with the head of Turkish intelligence just earlier in November. And then the NATO chief was there a few days later. And, of course, Turkey is the instigator of this for all his fine rhetoric. Now, what's it done? It's changed the whole balance because it's brought Russia into the war. Russia is bombing these militants in Idlib who are takfiris. That means people who will cut off heads of people

they regard as apostates, that is non-believers. They've already started that, not with everyone, but they've started. I've seen videos of them cutting off the head of a Syrian soldier. Now, what I think has happened here is very much that most of Assad's elite forces, which are basically the Alawite forces. Assad is an Alawite and the establishment is Alawite and is basically a sect of Shiism that broke away from, if you like, the mothership in the 7th century and established itself in the 10th century in Lebanon and Syria and was then officially acknowledged by the supreme leader some time ago as a branch of seism, as not an, if you like, a heretic group, but as a mainstream

Shi'i group. And so they are, those forces were along the border trying to make sure that Israel didn't come in to the, if you like, across the border of the Golan, which is very close to Damascus. So they were all stretched along there. And up in the north, Syria really only had conscripts. Conscripts had no experience fighting. I mean, they were just, they just collapsed. Now, what has happened is that this has transformed the situation because now Russia has been bombing these groups heavily.

I think a head of the Air Force or one of the senior members of the Russian Air Force has just been to Damascus to discuss further air assaults. And you have, to a certain extent, Israel attacking, on the other hand, what they claim are Hezbollah forces still across the border. And now we have a new development, which is that Israel, Iran has said it supports Assad's government in all ways now. And we have the beginning thousands of Iraqi PMO, that is, Hashad forces, have already crossed the border into Syria on their way to fighting these Turkish-led motley. It's a group. I mean, the militia are not just one. There are six main militia elements.

Some of them are al-Qaeda groups, formerly al-Qaeda, al-Nusra groups, under the command of Jolani, who was a brutal leader in Turkey. And there were many fights within those groups because they disliked him so much. The reports that he's been killed, I can't confirm, but the reports that Jolani is killed, which will change the situation, also quite substantially. But you have now Iran entering the war, and you have Israel now getting extremely worried about Iranian forces

coming down literally to the borders with Lebanon and their area, and you have Russia. I imagine Putin must be mad as hell at Erdogan, who's really broken all the Astana agreements, all his agreements with Putin. He's broken by uh well-prepared plan at least months as far as we understand the only thing that the change really was they suddenly brought it forward to the end of the ceasefire because it was scheduled I think for a little later um but they brought it forward and activated this large force. I mean, if you see the videos of them, you know, they're all marching. They have beautifully equipped, latest NATO equipment.

They have tanks. They have armored personnel carriers. I mean, we're not talking about a sort of right-tag militia that people think of from, you know, 20 years ago. This is a force, you know, that has been well-trained. Russia that people think of from 20 years ago. This is a force that has been well trained. Some of them have been trained in and around Al-Tanf by the Americans. They were all trained some years ago from about 2011 by both CIA and the Pentagon in different ways and in different places in Syria, mainly to bring down Assad and to remove him from power. It didn't work, but this was conceived as a new operation.

How far Erdogan wanted to go, I don't know. But my goodness, he's now put himself in direct opposition to Putin and Russia. I mean, directly, he is in this war. There's no doubt. I know Turkey is denying it, but there's absolutely massive evidence to show that this whole, I mean, and reports from the prisoners taken show that this is entirely managed by Turkish

intelligence, puts himself completely at odds with Russia. I imagine Putin is apocalyptic with anger at that, and put himself at odds with turkey and what uh with iran sorry put himself at odds with uh iran now what will happen we have to see um because now we have the forces from iraq thousands tens of thousands are pouring in. Iran has promised full support for Assad in this war against these jihadist groups. And it's complicated, but let us be clear about it. These jihadists view Sunni Islam and certainly Shi'i Islam as apostate, as a form of heretics. And they don't like the Alawites and the Alawite forces. And so Jolani's rule there has been brutal. I mean, he was close to Baghdadi and Damascus. He was a member of Al-Qaeda, pure and simple. He's changed his name several times to Al-Nusra, and now it is a group that has called itself HTS. And then there's a group that claims to be secular.

And these were the ones that were mostly supported by the American forces. And you remember a little not so long ago, I can't remember what date it was, but General Flynn's career because he wrote a report or he authorized an intelligence, American intelligence report, saying that the aim of these people was to establish a caliphate in Syria. And of course, other states don't. I mean, this puts them, as I say, in terms of religion, completely at odds with one another. It's quite interesting how Saudi Arabia, who was back in 2011 or even earlier, was very much involved with these jihadists, has lent its support completely to Assad. So has the UAE, so is Gaza, so is the Arab states are supporting Assad, which is quite different from what happened in the past.

And I think Israel is watching this with some caution. And indeed, they have started to intervene. They started to intervene. And you can imagine where this is going. They sent up a large number of Israeli fighter aircraft into Syria to prevent a civil Iranian aircraft landing in Syria and they forced it to retreat and return to Iran. Well, let's not guess what's going to come next, but next time it's going to be perhaps rather different. Lebanon, and the security forces were discussing the security establishment, sorry, the security establishment in Israel was discussing what to do about the intervention of Iran directly and the

threat it poses to Israel, and postulating, I don't think any decisions were taken, but that the Israelis would have to get more involved in this war in Syria if Iran comes into it and if arms are now going to come directly Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. So it's a big mess in short. I can't hear. I can't hear. All right. You got me now, Al. No, I can hear you. No, I can hear you. Sorry about that. I'm sorry to the audience. Let's go back a step or two.

Why did Netanyahu agree to the ceasefire in Lebanon? I think there were a number of reasons, but principally because the Israeli forces were overstretched. I mean that according to their directives of their military commitments, I mean the Israeli directives for military involvement, they are understaffed by about 20%. People, the troops were exhausted, protesting. Many of the reservists were not turning up to fight. They'd actually been withdrawn from Lebanon, the reservists, and they'd left it just with the professional army and the Golani army, and they were suffering heavy losses too. So I think the army was desperate for a pause.

And then similarly, there was great tensions within the cabinet between the Orthodox, who are part of the coalition, who refused to do national service in the army, and the secular and also even the religious nationalists who say, yeah, okay, but why should our sons die? There's just go on studying the Torah. This can't continue. It's the nation at risk and everyone has to be a part of this. And the orthodox must be conscripted. It was so tense that it has been very close to bringing down the coalition. So that's saved that element to it.

And I think also Netanyahu's been sort of clearing the decks for the Trump arrival. I don't know what's going to come out of that. I see that Sarah Netanyahu yesterday, Sunday, was having a dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and discussing the strategic, how important it was for Israel to win the war. I don't know, no one reports what Trump said in return. But I mean, that's the emphasis he's moving towards Iran. And here we're seeing it very clearly. CISFA, they attempted to weaken Hezbollah but didn't succeed. So they got the West to help them impose a ceasefire in Lebanon. Then the war moves to Syria.

And they knew this was coming and it was evident. It was planned this way to cut off the weapons supply to Hezbollah. And when that was cut off, then they would restart the war in Lebanon with Hezbollah weakened by not having its weapons supply. And then it would move on and move up towards Iraq and then Iran. This has been very clearly the plan. And so Netanyahu clearly knew this was coming and so cut off all the communications between Hezbollah because in the past Hezbollah forces played an important element in ending the civil war in Syria and then what's Look, I think this isn't part of the American deep state plan with the British and the French and the Turkish involvement, because what's

happened is Russia has come straight in with its air force and got involved in the conflict um i i mean substantial the uh russian have been pounding these forces in italy and then now we have uh iran promising to support assad to the end and it will provide the forces necessary to do that and already the i mean tens of thousands of armed Iraqi resistance fighters are crossing. These are she, like Assad, like, if you like, Iran, are crossing the border into the, I mean, and these are the people who suffered so greatly with Al-Qaeda, who would kill them, cut their heads off. So they have a bitter experience and a bitter dislike for the sort of forces that Turkey's been using to this end.

And so we have a completely new paradigm where it's now the war has become more complex and wider and the consequences of it less predictable. It's very chaotic in Syria at the moment. It's not possible to give a, you know, I couldn't now at this stage give you a sort of neat photo of what's going on there, except to say that they're being pushed back considerably. These militia of Turkey tried to go down to Hama, which is a strong Muslim Brotherhood town. Part of Homs, Hama is a of a vein of radical Sunni Islamism and try and go down there and they've been pushed back. They're not able to, if you like, create a buffer zone along the border with Lebanon, but they're getting pushed back as the army reorganizes itself and brings its elite forces back from the border

and is engaging them in Al-Azhar. But this is going to take time. I mean, you know, yes, you can use air power and you can bomb them, but ultimately you have to clear this area on, it'll have to be cleared sort of hand-to-hand fighting. This was not, you know, not something that can be just done in a trice. So it's going to be a complicated, a very complicated war that has now opened up. And, you know, for all Er ones posturing, again, the mask has been pulled away. And he's turned out to be, if you like, acting on behalf of simply of Israel and of the United

States in this area. I don't know what it will mean because many of his people were, as you've seen, I think you've seen them, been very angry about what's happening in Gaza and elsewhere. But anyway, he has decided to throw in his lot to try and destabilize Assad, maybe bring down the government, because I saw that the Turkish foreign minister, Bidin Hakan, was urging the people, saying, Assad has to listen to the popular opposition, popular opposition of these,

of these takfiris, these jihadists in Idlib. And that's, of course, I mean, the last thing that Christians, I mean, because there's a large Christian population in Syria and the Alawites are prepared to listen to that sort of message coming out of Turkey. He's, I think, overextended himself, Mr. Erdogan, badly overextended himself with this game. And maybe the West too.

I don't think Russia will get much more involved because they're going to focus, they're going to stay concentrating on Ukraine. They're not going to put troops in or anything like that. Iran might. It might. I don't know. But it might. But anyway, the war is on. And it's going to be a long war and an extensive war. The lesson is Iran might, and the war is on. Alistair Crook, thank you very much for your time, my dear friend, and for this extraordinary analysis.

All the best to you. We'll see you again next week. Thank you so much, Judd. Of course. Thank you. Coming up later today, we have a very interesting day. At 9.15 this morning, Patrick Lancaster live from eastern Ukraine. At 10 this morning, Ray McGovern.

At 11 this morning, Larry Johnson. At 4 this afternoon, it's our usual Monday, Scott Ritter. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. We'll see you next time.