Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: The Dangers of Military Escalation in the Middle East.

Episode Date: October 26, 2023

#Isreal #Erdoğan #Hamas #wwiii Judge Nap: Do you think that President Biden is under pressure from the globalists and neocons around him to take this as an opportunity, once and for all, to destroy the regime and its nuclear capability in Tehran?Alastair Crooke: I think so, yes. I think there's pressure. I'm not saying he's succumbed to it. I'm not saying it will prevail, but you have to look at it from the other end of the telescope too. In the region, people look at this huge build-up and they see, is America preparing for World War III? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, October 26, 2023. Our dear friend Alistair Crook joins us from the hills outside of Rome, Italy. Alistair, good day to you. Thank you very much for spending your time with us. What is your view as to the likely geopolitical consequences of a land invasion of Gaza by the Israeli defense forces? Well, first of all, that is going to have a dynamic effect. There's no point just considering it in terms of the static effect of what it will do. We can look at that.

And the answer to that would be that it is likely to be very disadvantageous for the Israelis fighting in that urban area. We've covered that before. It's very, very hard thing to do. And the Israelis are not really prepared for that. Of their 360,000 force ready to go into Gaza, nearly 300,000 are reservists. I mean, they're not trained for that sort of thing. They're trained as reservists, but not hand-to-hand sort of fighting inside an urban area.

But the longer-term effects are the more important. It will further radicalize an already radicalized Islamic sphere. And that is boiling very hot indeed and changing the politics of the areas so much. Will it bring in Hezbollah? I'm not sure if it will bring in Hezbollah in the first instance um because I think even two years ago when we had the um up the flaring of violence um around alexa mosque and the Hamas missiles and the rising up across the Palestine

in the Green Belt and in the West Bank, very strong. Hamas told Hezbollah they wanted this to be a Palestinian fight. They wanted this to be a resistance conducted by Palestinians. And their help was very welcome, but they didn't want it to be a Hezbollah or Lebanese operation. They wanted it to be Hamas. So I think that actually Hamas want a period where they can show their abilities to defeat Israel, if that's what happens, in Gaza very clearly, and that it is not done by outsiders. It is a Palestinian, if you like, effort to defeat Israel inside Gaza on their own.

So I think it may be a little time till Hezbollah comes in. And, you know, they're watching very carefully and already, I mean, there's considerable exchange of fire on the border between Lebanon and Israel, far more than is reported in the press. I mean, Merkava tanks have been destroyed by Hezbollah. They've destroyed huge electronic intelligence gathering centers,

two of them, I think, worth billions, these two centers. And so already Israel is partly engaged with Hezbollah, but Hezbollah haven't actually moved to an invasion. Do you think that Prime Minister Netanyahu, the ultimate political survivor in Israeli politics, has taken into account the likely consequences of an overreaction on the part of his government? Or do you think that his contemporary domestic political standing is so unstable that only a war, which causes a lot of bloodshed, will unite the Israeli people behind him and prolong his time in office. Very much the last. Yes, he's aware of the dangers, but at the same time, there really

isn't much alternative. He has to restore what Israel called the Terrence. That is that anyone who attacks Israel will be met by overwhelming force and crush. And that is their sort of paradigm. And their internal paradigm is rather the same, that anyone living, any Jew within the state of Israel must know and expect that Israel and the IDF have their back, always, that there will be immediate support and immediate support. At the moment, how many of them are going to return to the Gaza area, to the settlements there, to the Gapuzim on the northern borders,

when they've seen what happened with the fences down and people pouring across and coming into the Gapuzim? I don't think it's so likely. The only other solution he has, but it doesn't restore deterrence, is to try, and this is what Europeans are telling him to do, is to try and restore, to get the hostages back. But I'll tell you why that's not going to be easy or not going to happen. Because I was a negotiator with Hamas to bring back Gilad Shalit in 2006, who was a corporal

of the IDF who was taken prisoner by Hamas. And I negotiated for over a year or more to do that. And, you know, it was all about the ratios. Hamas wanted, in the end, they got 1,027 serious prisoners released by Israel for one man. So that sort of negotiation, you know, by the time they start those negotiations, the window for the other option of going into Gaza will close. The reservists will have gone home. of every Jew anywhere in Israel the sort of social contract that the Jewish people in Israel have with their government? And if so, hasn't that social contract been materially damaged by the October 7th raid?

Completely smashed. I mean people are very clear about this and very, I mean, you know, they are too frightened to go back now. They don't believe the idea. They don't believe the government will look after them. No, there's been a complete breakdown in confidence and therefore the internal paradigm, which is what sustains Israel, is that those who are in the settlements in the Kibbutzim feel absolutely that Israel will secure them, come what may, whatever threat. And that is broken. That is why really Netanyahu has got no choice.

He has got to try and restore this. And the only way he can do it, which he probably won't succeed, almost certainly won't succeed, is he says he's going to destroy Hamas completely, rout them out, kill them. And that is the instruction that's been given to the IDF, in fact, in very graphic terms, to kill everyone and all around them

if they can get in and do this. But it's going to be a fighting. Even the first initial phase of it didn't go very well for the Israeli forces and the Americans who were with them. They came in with one tank and a few men to try and see if they could find a hostage in the north of Gaza, and they ended up, they were routed and fled. But this kind of killing or this kind of ground invasion is inevitably going to cause the deaths of a great number of Gazan civilians, far greater number than Hamas will be killed. Is Netanyahu and are the Israelis prepared for

the blowback, not pushback, blowback that will come from that? I think the anger and the desire for revenge are completely overtaking that consideration. I mean, I'm sorry to say, but they regard those who are living in Gaza as, if you like, collaborators because of where they live with Hamas. So they don't spare much pity for them. They don't see them in that light as being innocents. They see them as actually being really sort of guilty because they voted in Hamas in 2006. They won the election. Hamas won the election, clearly.

I know people say they didn't, but they did win the election, clearly, in 2006. And so many, so, you know, the Israelis won't look on them with a great deal of compassion, I think, in this process. But the main point and what I'm getting back to is really, you know, all of this is really heating up the Islamic sphere right across the world. And it's turning, there's an element of it which is becoming now quite religious um the shi authorities and the sunni authorities both have called on muslims muslims to to to stand with palestine uh so it's becoming just as israel's has become in any in way, a scatological process

of reestablishing Israel, founding Israel on the land of Israel, fulfilling a biblical prophecy. Now, if you like, the religious authorities are talking about this being a religious duty to stand with Palestine for all Muslims. Ian Sonny. Here is, I want to go to the international reaction. General, excuse me, Colonel McGregor has advised us of the sophistication of the Turkish military, its size many times the size of the Israeli, and its professionalism as full-time military, as opposed to two-thirds or even three-quarters

are reservists. With that in mind, I want to run a clip of President Erdogan yesterday, a very angry President Erdogan, referring to Hamas as liberation fighters. So the clip is in Turkish. There are subtitles. I will read the subtitles aloud for the benefit of our listeners who are listening to the program rather than watching it. It's about two minutes long. It's dramatic. It's dynamic. And when I first saw it, I thought, I can't wait to ask Alasdair what he thinks about this. So here we go. Israel's attacks on Gaza, both in terms of those who carry them out

and in terms of those who support them, are a situation that signify both murderousness and mental illness. We have no problem with the Israeli state, but have never approved and will never approve cruelty it is carrying out in its style. It is like an organization instead of a state. In this picture, the tears that Western powers shed for Israel while turning a blind eye to the cruelty in Gaza, is nothing but the biggest example of fraud. Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a liberation group, a group of mujahideen that is fighting to protect its soil and its citizens. First of all, all sides need to take their hands off the trigger, and a ceasefire needs

to be declared at once. Both Israel's attacks on Gaza and other areas need to stop, as well as the missiles fired on Israel's soil. Direct or indirect talks for the release of hostages need to begin, and this issue needs to reach a conclusion rapidly. The Rafah border gate certainly needs to be kept open continuously for humanitarian aid. For the war not to spread, all actors need to act responsibly, and forces outside the region need to stop carrying fuel to the fire under the guise of solidarity with Israel. I call on all other countries that have wisdom and a conscience to put pressure on Netanyahu's

government for the Israeli state to return to common sense. I would like to remind of the need to not continue these developments with an understanding of the cross against the crescent. Wow. Well, there's a lot to unpack there. The referring to Western aid as a fraud, the reference to Hamas as a liberation organization, and the ferocity with which he spoke and unanimity with which he was greeted in his own parliament. I'll let you take it from there. Okay, well, I've just spoken to you about the change taking place in the region and the radicalization. But to understand what he said, you have to understand something, and this is controversial in the West, but it needs to be said anyway. The Hamas is not ISIS at all. It has a completely different background and formation. It's an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. And Erdogan is really of the Muslim Brotherhood.

And he has been regarded as the sort of political leader, not the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. And the Muslim Brotherhood is a mainstream political Islam throughout the region. Now, in the West, everyone calls it ISIS and takes refuge in that. But in the region, everyone knows that it is something different, that it is an offshoot of mainstream political Islamism that was across, was in Saudi Arabia, was in Egypt, which is in Turkey,

which is in everywhere across the region in one way or another. That is not to say anything about what they did or anything like that, but for the clarity's sake to understand what is happening in the region, you have to understand that. that his vast military may enter this fray if it continues to go the way it appears to be going, which is a killing of a large number of Palestinian civilians. Exactly. It is precisely a very clear warning and a very important one, because as I've just tried to explain, he has standing in the Muslim world, in the general Muslim world, beyond just being the president of Turkey. So he has standing and he does have a huge military force. But don't underestimate that of Iran either. Iran has very sophisticated

military force. It is always underplayed in the West. It is a very sophisticated military force. They have very smart weapons and they are quite capable if they entered the conflict of destroying Israel completely. Since last we spoke, the United States has sent an aircraft carrier and its accompanying fleet of smaller ships into the eastern Mediterranean. The aircraft carrier has 2,000 Marines on it. Another aircraft carrier is on its way either to the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea. And U.S. Special Forces have been sighted on the ground in Gaza and have taken fire. How dangerous is this as striking a match to a powder keg for escalation either of war there or retaliation here in the mainland of the US? It's utterly stupid. Utterly stupid. It's a very, very dangerous act.

So is all this escalation. Yes, I know it's supposed to be deterrence. One carrier off Cyprus and another one in the Red Sea and all of these weapons coming in. But the size of them, you know, in the last few days, I mean, there have been 80 huge heavy lift aircraft coming in to the region, all around it, to Cyprus, to Jordan, from the United States, full of weapons, sometimes with special forces in it, sometimes with other forces in it. an enormous airlift as well as these carriers. And now maybe even two more carriers, because I gather two American nuclear-powered carriers have just left their port, destination unknown. But, I mean, what's going on here? You know, what does the region think about this?

They look at this and they say, you know, is this a setup for a war on Iran? It looks very like it. We listen to what Biden says. We listen to what Blinken and the others say. I'm not talking about Lindsey Graham. I'm talking about the sense that, you know, is there a sense in Washington that now is probably the best and last time to destroy Iran, take Iran out of the political equation? Do you think that President Biden is under pressure from the globalists and neocons around him to take this as an opportunity once and for all to destroy the regime and its nuclear capability in Tehran? I think so, yes. I think there's pressure. I'm not saying he's succumbed to it. I'm not saying it will prevail, but you have to look at it from the other end of the telescope too. In the region,

people look at this huge buildup and they see, is America preparing for World War III? I mean, two aircraft carriers, cargo planes coming in, all these air defense systems we're holding up. They'll probably be there tonight or tomorrow. The last carrier will be in the Red Sea, I think, by about then. So, I mean, you know, this is going to start a cycle of escalation because, of course, now we see Russia. What's it doing? On Wednesday, it did a full test you like, global circling ICBM. They had a test of all that. They are flying every day MiG-31s carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.

Those hypersonic missiles can sink a carrier. They're just sitting in the Black Sea. Maybe people think the Red Sea is off limits, but it isn't because Russia can always fly its aircraft over the Caspian and they would reach a carrier in the Red Sea. Is Russia going to come into this? What happens if it becomes a wider war? I think the White House is really panicked about it, and that's more worrying because are they going to make the right decisions? I'm told from people who've been to sort of confidential sort of talks and things that Biden is more worried about looking weak than about an escalation. If so, we're in real risk. I want to prevail in our last topic on your

experience as a diplomat and ask you about the two-state solution, but first here's President Biden yesterday on the two-state solution. Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. There's no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th. That means ensuring Hamas can no longer terrorize Israel and use Palestinian civilians as human shields. It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution. Does he mean that, who knows, you're not his shrink, is it feasible, is it even conceivable

with Benjamin Netanyahu as the Prime Minister of Israel? Well, the Israeli president immediately reacted to this and said, you know, no thank you, no politics, please, we're not doing politics at this time. But no, it isn't. I mean, first of all, ending Gaza is not going to suddenly put a two-state solution on the table. I mean, we've been through this for the last 20 years or more. I mean, me personally for nine of those years with the Oslo Accord. And each time people say, oh, well, let's start, let's go back to the two-state solution and we'll press Abu Mazen to negotiate with the Israelis. Well,

the whole construct of Oslo gives the Israel the last say on all of the key issues. And they don't ever give the last say, instead of which the settlements get bigger, the settlements grow, and there is a sort of what I call an al-naq by stealth, by the political process, every time. Even now the settlements are increasing. Even while this war is going on, the radical settlers on the West Bank are attacking Palestinians, driving them off their land, and using this as an opportunity to remove them. The question rather is, is Israel culturally capable of a real two-state solution, as required, Resolution 242, UN Security Council Resolution from 1947. I mean, we've actually got further and further away from that, nowhere approaching it. So I just think, you know, he's saying that because that's, you know,

that's the thing that the Europeans and Americans always say, but the Europeans was, oh, you know, we need to say the two-state solution. We need to say the two-state solution, knowing full well that they are, if you like, perpetrators and collaborators in the fact of its non-appearance, that it hasn't happened. The European Union has been, if you like, has financed the occupation all of these years. It has literally been the source of funding for that occupation.

Rather than actually pressing the Israelis to come. I mean, it's a difficult decision that would need great pressure or it would need a defeat in war to really bring this to fruition. I'm sorry to say something as dark as that, but I think only if there is a catastrophic situation might we start to see the prospect of a political, a sustainable political solution emerging at the end of it. Alistair Crook, thank you. Thank you, my dear friend. Brilliant, precise, and gifted analysis, deeply and profoundly appreciated.

We'll see you again next week. Thank you very much. Of course. Coming up later today at 2 o'clock Eastern, Professor Michael Rechtenwald, the great libertarian political philosopher in America, now running for the libertarian nomination for president. That's at 2 Eastern, at 3 Eastern from Rome, Italy, not far from where Alistair Crook is now, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, and at 4.30 Eastern today, the inimitable Scott Ritter. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. We'll see you next time. I'm