Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: The Deterrence Paradigm has Failed.

Episode Date: October 30, 2023

Israelis tell journalists, "We don't trust the government. We don't trust the army. We just do not trust the government at all. We can't come back."#israel #netanyahu #hamas #palestine #erdoğanSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, October 30th, 2023. In a moment, Alistair Crook joins us, whatever happened to Western invincibility? But first this. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Lear Capital. You all know that I am a paid spokesperson for Lear Capital because it's the right thing to do because the government is regulating too much and printing too much money and reducing the value of everything you earn and everything you own. And the best hedge against this is gold and silver. That's what I've done. I know the folks at Lear. I know the folks at Lear. I trust

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for a $15,000 gold bonus. So call Lear now, 800-511-4620 or learjudgenap.com. Alistair, my dear friend, as always, welcome back to the show and thank you very much for your time. of this year the israeli social compact with the jewish people who live in israel and the israeli myth of security and invincibility have been shattered have those shatterings been irretrievable irreparable it would seem probably so uh an israeli journalist who we know um very reputable

one was up in the north um and,000 population, empty, deserted. He went to the kibbutz in the north, and across the north, he said there's not a soul. It's completely deserted up in the north. There's just barriers and a few religious soldiers, and there was one old woman who was paralyzed and couldn't move. And she was the only person he found in the whole northern territories of Israel. And he said very clearly, these people, you know, they said to him,

you know, we don't trust the government. We don't trust the army. We don't trust the army. We just do not trust the government at all. We can't come back. And I would imagine that if the mistrust is to be personified, it's directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu, not only because he is the Prime Minister, not only because he can control the military and intelligence, but because his whole raison d'être in his four terms as Prime Minister is, I and I alone can keep you safe and secure. No, that's exactly right. Exactly right.

And, you know, there was a talk show and someone was listening to it and was saying he's never heard such bitter comments about the government. And even a Likud member said, you know, it is difficult for us going out in the streets and things because people are so, so critical. But you have to separate from that, from the main thing, whether they love him, whether they hate Netanyahu. Overwhelmingly, these Israelis favor the complete destruction of Gaza.

There was a former ambassador in Italy on television and just saying, we're not interested in reason or rational debate. We're not interested. We just want this evil destroyed. We want Gaza destroyed completely. And Netanyahu gave a very scatological interview. It was an interview, it was only in Hebrew, but the interview was very profound. And he talked, he said, we're facing a cosmic battle between good and global, global evil. And he talked about, if you like, the Israelis as the chosen people.

And also then, again, referred to Amalek and Samuel, the prophecy of Samuel, that Amalek, that God instructed that Amalek, who had attacked Israel, who was an enemy of Israel, on the flight from Egypt. And Saul had been ordered to kill every one of them, women, children, even their beasts had to be killed. He made, I think, about two references to that and came back to the theme.

Our soldiers in Gaza are fighting the 3,000-year war to reclaim the land of Israel against these evil people. So it is becoming very, very much more. I mean, you referred, I think when I last spoke with you, to Erdogan talking about this is increasingly becoming a struggle. He feared it was becoming a contest between Crescent and La Crosse, referring, of course, to the Crusades. And it is taking on a new tone. It is, of course, too, a sort of a geopolitical struggle. But it is now becoming almost a metaphysical struggle,

a struggle about good and evil. He talked about that. Netanyahu said, we are the light fighting against encroaching darkness. So it was a very dark and very messianic newscast. Do you think that the prime minister understands the consequences of the destruction of Gaza, the physical, military, political, existential consequences to Israel? And we'll play President Erdogan in a minute, but before we play his latest, far more incendiary than even what he said to the parliament last week. Do you think that Netanyahu understands this? I think he is. I think in a sense, because the Americans have made this point to him.

But I think many Israelis, and this is the point I was making, even though they don't like Netanyahu, many of them like that ambassador, Israeli ambassador in Italy, who said, I don't want rationality, thank you. I just want the extermination of this evil. This is, I mean, overtaking, overcoming Netanyahu. It's, you know, it's just, you know, it is, it was a very emotional, almost, you know, neurotic press conference that he gave on Sunday to the people saying this is going to be a long war. It might go for a long war, but we're fighting for, this is the second war of independence.

And the emotion and the passion and the sort of sense of existential war were quite apparent in that and reflected. It's not he alone. And there's, of course, a huge turmoil in Israel because there's great divisions in the cabinet and rumors of resignations from the war cabinet although I think those are probably wrong but I mean yes this you know the the tensions and the emotions are just overwhelming you know any reason or or rationality or the sense of what's in a state's interest you have pointed out to us when we were

discussing uh the war in ukraine that president putin is actually a moderating influence that there are elements uh in his government uh who wanted him to march all the way to Kiev and arrest or kill President Zelensky and the Ukrainian government. Is Prime Minister Netanyahu effectively holding back the tide and resisting the elements that want an existential destruction of Gaza, or is he about to give into and lead those elements because he knows that once the war is over, his premiership and maybe even his freedom is over? He doesn't believe that. He thinks he's leading Israel in this great struggle. I mean, as I say, this, this, the struggle of Armaged mean, everyone else thinks he's finished, probably,

but he doesn't believe that, and he believes that, you know, if it was any chance that he could persuade America to destroy Iran or its nuclear program, then he would be doubly vindicated because he's been advocating that for 20 years. So I think he sort of sees a sort of bright light of, you know, great godlike sort of figure moving across the landscape, leading the troops on to this battle, this final Armageddon

between absolute evil and the light. It's very, you know, I don't want to overdo it, but it's very serious, the trend that I've been describing to you over a couple of programs of increasingly the sort of these ideas of it becoming an existential struggle are overtaking any real sort of diplomacy. As to, I think it's actually the United States that keeps holding him back. And the cabinet is bitterly divided on this.

But the American advice, as I understand it, is just do short, sharp, if you like, piercing probes into Gaza. But don't go all the way. Don't go full in. And there have been complaints from Israeli generals of a different view and who are saying, you know, what's the matter? This offensive is just shrinking. Every time we look at it, it's gone lesser and lesser and lesser.

And that's reflected on the ground too. You know, it's very hard in the fog of war to be really sure what's going on. You can't do, if you like, an empirical view of what's happened. But because we have lots of sources around the region and that, the big picture is, in a sense, Israel has gone into Gaza, but not in a major way. They've gone and they've suffered some ambushes. And we do know that. I mean, the IDF say there are no casualties and it's a great success.

It's sounding rather like, you know, Ukrainian deputy defense minister. But I mean, we do have absolute videos of Israeli troops killed by the northern border, by Hezbollah. I mean, there's a full, you know, the whole thing is Hezbollah is filming everything. And we do can see that they've had some tanks that have come in through Gaza. I know the Ares crossing. I remember it well from the past.

You go through Ares crossing and then there's a sort of flat, sort of empty space till you get to Gaza City. Now, they've only got into that, really, and to the Saladin Road, which is the main road going through Gaza. I think they've shot up one car, a tank has, and then they've left. But they were ambushed because the Hamas went through the tunnels and caught them from behind, just as they did the same down in Rafah. And again, there were casualties, and several reports suggested the Israelis had to evacuate the

casualties by helicopter. I want to play for you in just a moment, and I've teased this already enough times, the Erdogan clip, but you've just raised a question in my mind. Do you know, because there's nothing in the mainstream media, but Colonel McGregor has sources who report this, if there have been any American casualties in Gaza, American military casualties, American special forces casualties in Gaza. Can you enlighten us on that? There's no evidence of that at all. And though I have the huge admiration for the colonel,

I'd be quite surprised if American special forces came into Gaza. I mean, they're not really, they don't know the territory. I mean, yes, they've been in Afghanistan, but Gaza is not Afghanistan. So I'd be surprised if they were in. Advisors, people, you know, going there, telling them how to do it, what we did in Mosul, what we did in, you know, all these things. I'm sure that there are plenty of those, you know, special forces around. Actually taking up a gun and going in and trying to, you know, kill Hamas. I don't think American forces would probably do that.

I don't know for sure, but I think it's unlikely myself. Okay. I appreciate that. Obviously, this wasn't the colonel's personal observation. It was his understanding from some of his sources. Here's the clip of President Erdogan, and he's addressing an enormous, enormous gathering of people. I'll let you say how many you think are there it's well in excess of a hundred thousand it's rather incendiary it's in Turkish so of course I will uh read aloud uh the subtitles in English hey Israel how did you come here how did you enter here you are an occupier you are an organization the Turkish Hey İsrail, nasıl geldin? Nasıl geldin? Nasıl geldin? Sen bir işgalcisin. Sen bir örgütçüsün.

Türkler bunu biliyor. İsrail, biz size savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı,

savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı,

savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı,

savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı,

savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, savaşı, What is being done in Gaza is not defense, but an open and despicable massacre. This determined and faithful stance exhibited by Gazans will be written in history as a glorious epic of resistance. What do you make of that? Not some two-bit political hack, but the president of the country addressing one of the largest

C's of humanity I've seen. I think what he's seeing is, you know, Erdogan, people like him or don't like him, but he's politically canny. You know, he always knows, he's always playing one side off or another. But I think he sees opportunities and spots things. The protests that you saw, which was very, very large, is occurring all around the region.

Over the weekend, there were massive protests. In Europe, too, which is also important. Biggest ever protest in London that they've seen in London. He's seen these protests. I think he sees a change in sentiment in the mood you know Iraqis are all gathering at the borders with Jordan desperate to they've got tents there and camps camping there wanting the Jordanians to let them through so they can go and fight with Hamas and in Gaza I mean this is a you know as this as the the war in Gaza and the pictures out of Gaza continue, it is inflaming sentiments amongst many.

And Erdogan, what you saw in that thing, is bidding for the leadership that will take it away from General Sisi, from King Jordan, from all of these leaders, because he's there and saying what they want someone to say. I'm not saying it's right, but I'm talking about raw emotion. This is what we're dealing with. We're not dealing with literal politics of interest and money. We're talking about something much more raw and much more, if you like, volatile, like far. Is this likely to morph into military action against Israel? I think it's, you know, for some time now,

it's been quite a possibility that the Jordanians, who are all Palestinians, I mean, the vast majority of the country is Palestinian and came from Palestine after the Second World War when they were evicted from their villages. I mean, there's almost a sense of a sort of mass mobilization, sort of swarm mobilization taking place. And when you look at also what's happening in the West Bank,

because it gets no attention in the mainstream media, but the Israelis have had to start using aircraft, F-16s, against the towns in the West Bank, who are not defended or not an enclave against Nablus, against Jenin. They're using F-16s and drones. I mean, it's sort of a low intensity war also in the West Bank. So this is, and many of those Jordanians have direct links. They came from the West Bank. And so they're itching. I mean, King Jordan is holding them back. But, you know, someone like Erdogan can give the word,

and I don't know what would happen. As I've always said to you, this is a dynamic process. And as the war on Gaza, as the disaster in Gaza progresses, we will see further changes in sentiment and further political changes in the region, which will transform the region quite possibly. in Ukraine how the myth of Western and NATO superiority has been exposed as a myth. You have articulated better than anyone, Alistair, how the myth of Israeli security and intelligence superiority has been exposed as a myth. When these myths are exposed, do they undermine the moral authority, the moral argument that the West and the Israelis have made? It certainly undermines completely the legitimacy.

But more importantly than that, it undermines the whole sense of deterrence. The whole basis of Israel is its deterrence. And they say that. The cabinet minister said, we have to respond with such overwhelming force that it sears the consciousness of all our enemies around the world, that they will never think of approaching us today. And that is what was so smashed on the 7th of October, the whole idea of deterrence.

And even now, as I described a little earlier, I mean, people just don't believe in it anymore. Israelis don't believe in it, let alone Turks, let alone people outside the region. The deterrence is gone. And so how do you put this back together again? How do you rebuild deterrence? Just bombing Gaza isn't going to do it. It's actually increasing, if you like, the polarization and the schism within the Middle East. So I don't think there's an answer. Deterrence is gone. And just to be very clear, we have always regarded Israel and its deterrence as, if you like, a little overwhelming force to keep the Middle East in the hegemony,

in the wider hegemony. So it's a really profound blow, which is why there's so much turmoil in Washington. He's thinking that if this rail is not able to put this back together um this will be a major blow for the west and the western uh ability to exercise its political influence around the globe again that's the takeaway from your usual brilliant analysis that the uh's regarding of Israel as a little NATO may soon come to naught. We'll see. One more tape I want to run. This is of Ishmael Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, expressing a lot of anger about what's happening in Gaza.

And again, I'll I don't know if I can do this, Chris. It's giving me some sort of a signal on the screen, but I'll try and read the subtitles. I have said this before and I say it again. The blood of the women, children and elderly. I am not saying that this blood is calling for your help. We are the ones who need this blood. So it awakens within us the revolutionary spirit. Typical of Hamas leaders.

I think it says something which is important to understand. He said, we need this blood because it awakens the revolutionary spirit. And that's really what we're talking about. Hamas see what's happening in Gaza as a revolutionary act, as an act that is, if you like, awakening not just Palestinians, but the whole Middle East, awakening it for this is what really concerns me, that it's becoming increasingly the sense of a metaphysical war against Western civilization on the one side, the Western rule that is for the last 500 years, set the rules for the conduct of politics around the world,

and a new, if you like, metaphysical struggle against the West. And that's what he's talking about, about a revolutionary spirit. Alistair Crook, always a pleasure, my dear friend, no matter how gloomy the world is. No, no, no, it's a pleasure. And for me, it's a privilege. And for the audience, for me to pick your brain. Thank you very much. We'll see you again next week. All the best, my dear friend. Thank you. Coming up in a few minutes, the inimitable Ray McGovern. What does the intelligence community have to say about all of this? Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.