Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: The Middle East One year after October 7th 2023.

Episode Date: October 7, 2024

Alastair Crooke: The Middle East One year after October 7th 2023.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. With courses available online 24-7 and monthly start dates, WGU offers maximum flexibility so you can focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu. Hi everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, October 7th, 2024. Alistair Crook will be with here in just a moment on how the Middle East has changed in just one year. But first this. A divisive presidential election is upon us

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Protect your savings and retirement before it's too late. 800-511-4620, learjudgenap.com. Remember, hope is not a strategy, but gold is. Alistair Crook, welcome here, my dear friend. Always a pleasure. This may sound like an encyclopedic question, but how has the Middle East changed in just one year, this past year? It's dramatically changed, but I would say also it's now no longer about just the Middle East. It is expanded further than that.

Essentially, what happened on the 7th of October was the old paradigm exploded, was completely broken and destroyed, something that no one can go back to any longer. But apart from that, it evoked the old memories of what happened. It's about the Second World War, the First World War. These two wars were supposed to end colonialism. It was supposed to lead to independence and a certain degree of, if you like, sovereignty for people. And, of course, that never happened. And what happened instead was a new form of colonialism, a geo-financialized, if you like, colonialism,

which didn't entail having boots on the ground across the world, but made people very much feudal properties as much as ever. And as a consequence, what we're seeing really is that the Palestinians were iconic in this. The struggle for, if you like, the end of colonialism, the end of, if you like, hegemony and the ability to secure justice. And so this is one of the main things that has happened. And why I said it's become worldwide in a sense and global is really because on the one hand, it's very clear that the US, or at least the US administration, together with Israel, is planning an attack on Iran. And that is very clear. And they've said

that, and it's a question of what gets attacked. Now, the point really about this is behind Iran now is Russia. Russia is providing air defenses, providing support. There are Russians on the ground managing this and the electronic warfare systems that are there and has close, direct, integrated intelligence with Iran. And behind Israel stands the United States. Let's be absolutely clear, there is no way Israel is going to be able to sustain an attack on Iran without manifest and substantial support from the United States.

And will it get manifest support from the United States? And if so, in what form will that come? And if that happens, will Iran get manifest support from Russia? Well, again, I mean, what's happened is really something. It's not clear quite how much support for the following reason. When Israel decided to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah and the leadership, and then to start bombing almost randomly in Beirut. This was the starting gun for suggesting that this was the beginning of Israel's bombing war, not only on Lebanon, not only on the Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank,

but increasingly and now what is happening on Syria, and it will extend to Iraq, as it has to, if you like, the Houthis and to Yemen. These are what Netanyahu calls the, if you like, the tentacles of the octopus. And the head of the octopus is essentially, of course, Iran. And that's where, if you like, there's a meshing of interest between the United States and Israel, because a faction in the United States has long wanted to knock out Iran, which it sees as then weakening Russia and making Russia's ability to control the heartland, the whole of Central Asia, much less plausible and likely.

So we are moving in that direction. But we've seen a lot of, if you like, this period of hubris, the pendulum is swinging towards Israel's way that we've seen them talking about this, the new world order can be seized. We see this in the United States and Europe, but overall in Israel. And it's accompanied with a great deal of, if you like, gaslighting. Gaslighting about how successful they're being in their project, how successful it will be, that they will take out the strengths of Hezbollah

as they have Hamas and so on. And so there's a sort of sense that is quite strongly held in parts of the united states and in europe that you know somehow israel is on a winning streak but you know these are the pendulums of war uh and a lot of this is just gaslighting so i wanted to sort of bring you a report from from from the battlefield in the sense of to start with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has managed to, if you like, correct after the devastating loss of, say, Hassan Nasrallah, has managed to reconstruct its leadership, its command and control is functioning. And the evidence of that is quite obvious.

It is firing rockets. It fired today big, for the first time, major rockets into Haifa, large missiles into Haifa. And it is fighting very successfully in the south of Lebanon. And just to explain and put it into context, where does Hezbollah stand now after the loss of... Well, its forces, I think it is no exaggeration to say that its military forces are intact, 90% intact. In fact, Israel is losing more men in South Lebanon

than Hezbollah is losing. Hezbollah is continuing its rocket fire on, if you like, the logistics of Israel on the elements. Yes, they still have to sort out what happened to the senior leadership that has been displaced, but they're on the way to do that. It'll take a little time to sort out how this technical attack was mounted.

But in the meantime, as I say, another leadership has taken control. All that you hear about how many people have been killed, most of these are just Lebanese citizens. There's been a huge displacement of the Lebanese from the south, but still about 30% remain in Lebanon. Israel has no bridgehead in the south at all. They do very short, quick raids, particularly into areas,

because Lebanon is slightly mixed. There are parts, there are villages that are Christian and villages that are Shiite, and some of those Christian villages have had a history of close alliance with Israel. And so they've gone into some of these. There's one particular one where they went in and they take a picture and then they leave. I mean, they take a photograph. The photograph was what it was all about. This is the area which is controlled by the Irish in UNIFIL. They have a

post there and the Israelis came and parked a tank by the Irish UNIFIL post because they want all of UNIFIL out of, if you like, Lebanon. What's UNIFIL, Alastair? That's United Nations Peacekeeping Force. It's a multinational force that was implemented after 2006 and is intended to, if you like, supervise and report on what is happening in the south. And so in sum, the Israelis have not got in. They're suffering heavy casualties. Hezbollah is carefully bombing their logistics

and also their, if you like, where they deploy, the sites where they deploy. They come in a little way, but the idea that, you know, this is going to be soon there'll be a buffer zone in southern Lebanon in which all the residents of Israel are going to be coming back into position is make-believe. And as I've said, Hezbollah have begun now to use the heavier weapons. They haven't used the really big ones.

They use some quite big ones today, which is the 7th of October, into Haifa. And, of course, that has caused great panic in the civilian population. But I would say the other thing is, there's a saying in Italy that perhaps put it like this, perhaps Netanyahu has too much meat on the barbecue fire at the moment. He's fighting in the south of lebanon he's bombing lebanon and bombing quite extensively not hezbollah targets this is just like the um before the

lavender ai system they're just bombing bombing they've already bombed i think about 1600 times massive bombs i'm told i can't confirm it but i'm told that the bomb that took out nasrallah and the leadership which was 80 large bombs was in size an explosive size, more than the entire explosive bombs that were dropped on Iraq during the 2003 war. I mean the bombs and then there was a second one, again 73 bombs which Israel claims may have taken out the successor to Hassan Nasrallah and the head of the Quds Brigade, although the Iranians say very firmly that Kani, the head of the Quds Brigade, is alive and well.

I don't know if it's true, but, I mean, that's what they say. So we don't know. But the massive, I mean, what is this all about then, the bombing? If it's not taking out Hezbollah, it's what they say. So we don't know. But the massive, I mean, what is this all about then, the bombing, if it's not taking out Hezbollah? It's to terrorize, terrorize Lebanese as they hope into demanding a ceasefire, into turning on Hezbollah. The question is, you know, is that realistic? I think not, absolutely not.

What we hear from the Lebanese, from the Christian groups, who always had a close relationship, many of them with Hezbollah. Hezbollah used to help with repairing houses and things like that of those Christians, is that their anger is directed at Iran, and their sympathy is directed at the Gazans, more so than Hezbollah, per se. But I don't think there's going to be likely to be a coup in Lebanon that is going to decapitate, if you like, the Shi'i from power. And the idea that Israel has, of course, that the Lebanese army will come in and disarm Hezbollah, doesn't

take into account that 50% of the Lebanese formal state army is Shia, and their sympathies are like with Hezbollah, of course. So I think you look at that side, then you look at Iran. This is where I call the balance of the pendulum of war. It's not really that clear to me anyway. I'm not the military expert. I make point of that saying it, but it's not clear that actually an attack on Iran is that feasible? It would take dozens of aircraft. Yes, they have large bombs, but some of these bombs, we're talking about the big bunker busters, are away 13 tons each. And that and munitions means that the aircraft, which has to fly 1,500 kilometers, about 1,000 miles from Israel to Iran, is carrying a large load. And the only way they can do that is by refueling

en route. Now, Israel has ordered some more refueling tankers, but I think they haven't arrived. And we see American refueling tankers arriving in the region and Cyprus and so on. No doubt they're there for part of the American support for bombing Iran. So yes, they can do that. But then you can't just send bombers. Then you have to send a fighter escort. And the fighter escort has to be refueled as well. And then you have to find a path to get to Iran through perhaps hostile territory. And also you hope that you can get your people back from Iran. And that's only the start of the problems because the Iranian nuclear program, much of it in Fordow and places like that, is it buried in a mountain. And even with these large 13-ton bombs, they will only go down to 60 meters.

You know, this is why they had to use 80 just to get down to that level in Beirut to kill Hassan Nasrallah. And so it will be a major operation to do that, require substantive help from the United States. The United States will give more and more of these bombs because they're using them at an incredible rate at the moment, but there will be air refueling, there will be intelligence. But on the other side, apart from the fact that Iran's nuclear program is all over the country, some of it is on the coast, some of it is in the north, some of it is here, there, Parchin, Fordow, Boucher, Natanz, they're not all collected together.

And even if you have the ones in the open like Natanz, the Natanz ones are at 100 meters depth, some of the processes. I want to ask you... Go ahead, finish, please. Okay, and then, of course, you have the Russian air defense systems in place, for which the Israeli aircraft, if they do attack Iran, would have to take into account. It's very likely now that Iran has. I think it's been said very authoritatively, S-400s. So these are the most advanced air defense systems in the world today. So it's not in, you know, people talk lightly,

well, they'll, you know, attack Iran and then Iran will be out of it and Hezbollah is broken. You know, the swing of the pendulum, a lot of the talk is easy and free. But in war, the pendulum swings one way, yes. But was it a real victory killing Hassan Nasrallah or was a was it a Pyrrhic victory because as I say he set the United States and Israel as partners in a war against humanity essentially because the bombing the way that this war is progressing, is essentially inhuman. It's just killing civilians. It's not strategic.

It is not about destroying Hezbollah's military or the militia or Iran. It is about terrorizing civilians sufficiently that they demand a change. And that probably won't happen because the turn, the pendulum, the world pendulum has swung very strongly against Israel. Let me interject here, Alistair. What do the Israelis think they gain by decapitating leadership? There's no military advantage to that. In fact, it may be contrary to their interests because the successor might be more aggressive. It's because it's been, you know, the long-time basic policy of Israel to think that if you take out the leadership, then the whole system falls apart. But I mean, they did that in 82, in 83. They took out the leadership then of Hezbollah,

who was a moderate, and they were replaced by a more radical man whom you know well, Hassan Nasrallah. And now Hassan Nasrallah has been killed, and we will see what sort of successor he gets. But the history has always been that they end up more radical. But the whole point is that it's quite evident to anyone that looks at it that Hezbollah has reconstituted its command and control system. The younger leadership have taken over. The missiles are landing increasing numbers,

300 a day from Hezbollah coming across into South Lebanon. So they don't get that advantage, and they're doing that because they, I mean, this is the second thing, really, that's most important. It doesn't have the manpower for doing all this. When I say there's too much meat on the fire, they don't have enough army to fight in South, and they are not doing well. And we hear, I mean, indirectly, there was a father of a man killed in South Lebanon, one of the elite Israeli forces and he says it's really bad there and they're losing

lots of men but you won't hear that in the Western press, you won't hear that in the Israeli because they absolutely pummel, if you like, Western audiences with the story of we're on a winning streak, a new era is coming. You know, but the balance in these things is really, you know, perhaps swinging away because they've got, you know, I mean, there are more missiles coming from Yemen. Let me ask you. They're coming from those other places too.

Let me ask you about Israel itself. Is Israel stronger and more stable one year after October 7th or weaker and less stable than it was one year ago today? Much weaker in objective terms because their army has suffered heavy losses in Gaza. It's now suffering losses, too, in West Bank. The troops are tired. The reservists are reluctant to serve. The army is short of manpower. It really doesn't have the manpower to take care of the West Bank, Gaza, and invade.

And the idea of it staying for a year or whatever in South Lebanon is just impossible with this manpower to sustain. So it's weaker in that sense. They're weaker also in that, you know, many Israelis just don't believe in this Armageddon plan that, you know, this will bring in America and America will come in and will save Israel by destroying Iran. Because I don't think, I think partly because the Pentagon already has done its calculations and understands, you know, because what was so clear was that the 1st of October missile attack from Iran on Israel sent a very clear message that Iran had the capability to land precision missiles. They deliberately didn't

cause any casualties. And it's amazing a sort of commentary on the mindset in Israel, you know, on Israel, they said, it was a failure because there weren't any casualties. We didn't lose many people. Oh, yeah,. I'd like your thoughts on this. Chris? But based on what we know now, the attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective. And this is testament to Israeli military capability and the US military. Defeated and ineffective. That can't be accurate. Totally inaccurate. The American forces from the fleet fired 12 missiles. They didn't bring down any targets, any Iranian missiles. And they didn't hit, they didn't destroy any of the Iranian ballistic missiles arriving,

which was the majority. I don't know how many it was the total fired, but some of those were decoy missiles. Some of them were missiles intended to attract it. But Arrow and it, I mean, overall, it was 90% effective, shall we say, in effective, not in destroying a particular air base, not in destroying a target, but in showing the ability, the capability to do it. It was a very clear message to America and to Israel saying, if you want to do this, but we have the capacity to

really destroy you in retaliation if you try and attack Iran. And I think it's a message that anyone who's looked at it, I mean, there are plenty, plenty of video evidence that the missiles came through. You can see them. And there was almost no ability to take down. You're not allowed to film us in Israel, but we had the pictures of Nevartine Airport from the Bedouin in the Negev, and they were filming all the time on their cell phones and putting it online. And you can see

the missiles from Iran, large numbers coming in, and you can see the destination where they land. It's obvious on the films. Anyone who's looked at these videos cannot but say that these were a very effective message. They weren't designed to knock out all of the aircraft because there was two hours notice. Next time there'll be no notice, but there was two hours notice given this time, which now allows Israel to put some of their aircraft in the air. I don't know about all the F-35s, because F-35s are notorious for being out of service due to maintenance and repairs, that only 50% are ever airworthy at any time. But certainly, you know, if you didn't understand the message, well, then you'll

have to suffer it coming again. And that will be what we're going to see if America finally endorses, because they are part of this. No doubt. It won't happen without massive American support for the attack on Iran. to the conflict because they know he can't do this alone. For all the braggado that, oh, Israel can do this, it doesn't need help from anyone else. The Pentagon knows very clearly. And the Pentagon, I think, is not keen on now having a war after Ukraine, now to have a war in the Middle East, which is not just a war in a sense,

but also because it is the beginning of a conflict with Russia because Russia has its own... It's not Iranians running... I mean, they are running all the missile launches and part of it. But the Russians have their own technicians to make sure that the air defence system, the electronic warfare system. I mean, you have to ask yourself, why did the Iranian-Russian, the Israeli radar not work? Would that have something to do with Russia?

Who knows? Let's go to Europe for just a moment. I'd like your thoughts on President Macron's criticism of Israel and of the United States. Cut number one. ground operations on Lebanese soil. And so, yes, if we call for a ceasefire, the consistent thing to do is not to supply weapons of war. And I don't think that those who are supplying them can call for a ceasefire every day and continue to supply them. Can people who are funding genocide morally, legitimately have credibility when they call for a ceasefire? None. And what it reflects is the desperation in Europe. I think there's increasing fear,

not only that Europe has been hung out to dry over Ukraineraine which is quite true um but secondly um that uh ultimately the united states um the administration and new administration probably or possibly who knows will come in and it will turn its back on europe and it will cast Europe off after all the costs that it has borne in terms of its economic catastrophe that it's facing, in terms of its loss of competitiveness, its economic straightened situation, fiscally disastrous, no money, no money to take things forward. So they fear that they are going to be also carved up, that the parts of Europe that America wants, they'll take, the other parts they will cast aside. And so people like Macron who've often been sort of Sovereigntist in a certain way are desperate to keep in with America because otherwise where does France go? Where

does he go? Where does the European Union end up with all these divisions between China and the United States, China, Russia and as I say now, increasingly, we are at the sort of pre-revolutionary moment of this global war we've all been talking about for some time, because here we do have, you know, Russia providing, if you like, the backup to Iran and the United States providing the backup to Israel to have a class together, and then there will be the retribution that follows from Iran. Alistair, are you aware of the reports of large seismic activity in Iran over the weekend, either an earthquake or a test of a nuclear device?

Yes, that was on the 5th, the previous day. It was thought to be, it was first of all said to be an earthquake. But if you look at the seismic graphs, it looks not much like, I mean, I'm not the expert, but the experts, the engineers who look at it, say it looks more like a nuclear test than an earthquake. I imagine this has not escaped the Pentagon, and I imagine they will have understood that this is quite a potent message if it was a nuclear test.

And its pattern on the seismic raft is so different from, if you like, from earthquake that I think it has to be taken seriously, yes. Thank you, Alistair. So much to talk about. We'll continue it next week, but I appreciate very much, as always, your time and your analysis. Who knows where all this is going to go. Let me ask you one more question. Do the Israeli people recognize that they are in a weaker, destabilized, more precarious state than they

were a year ago? Half of the population, yes. This is why it's so tense in Israel. There really is. That division that I've been speaking about quite often on these programs, I mean, it's intense. Senior Israelis, Israeli generals, military people, say that this course of action that Israel is on is disastrous and will fail. And they're very angry and frightened by it. But the Israeli government has other beliefs. They see this as leading to a sort of biblical achievement, a biblical success, and don't listen.

But the tension in Israel is huge and extends into the military and extends into other parts of the apparatus. But Netanyahu's pretty well sort of immunized himself against a defeat in the Knesset at the moment, so he's likely to continue in 2006. So they just don't know what to do. How do you stop it? They've done protests. They haven't worked.

They don't know how to stop bringing this to an end. They don't believe that America will bring it to an end because they think America wants it and is authorizing it and supporting it in some way. Not America as a whole, but parts of this administration. Certain individuals particularly are thought by Israel to be advancing the idea. Blinken and McGurk and others that are advancing the Israeli agenda. So they don't see how to pull it back. That's a dilemma for many Israelis today.

A great deal of fear about what's coming. Alistair, thank you, my dear friend. Very much appreciated. Look forward to seeing you next week. All the best. Thank you very much. Thanks so much. Of course.

Coming up later today at 10 o'clock Eastern this morning, Ray McGovern at 11 o'clock Eastern this morning. Larry Johnson at 1 o'clock Eastern this morning. Larry Johnson at 1 o'clock Eastern this afternoon. Scott Ritter, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. We'll see you next time. Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. WGU is an online accredited university that specializes in personalized learning. With courses available 24-7 and monthly start dates, you can earn your degree on your schedule. You may even be able to graduate sooner than you think by demonstrating mastery of the material you know. Make 2025 the year you focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu.