Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke : Trump's Hubris-Driven Blunders

Episode Date: July 14, 2025

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Love thrillers with a paranormal twist? The entire Oracle trilogy is available on Audible. Listen now on Audible. MUSIC Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, July 14th, 2025. Alistair Crook will be here in a minute on President Trump's hubris-driven blunders. But first this. We all know how devastating war is. Lives lost, communities destroyed. But war can also threaten your financial freedom.

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Al Steyer, welcome here, my dear friends. Good day to you. Thank you for accommodating my schedule. What was Trump's goal in your view, his true internal, maybe discussed with just his inner circle goal, in bombing Iran's mountains? I think that the true goal, and it was very clear from his discussion on the 22nd of June when they attacked the three nuclear sites was that he had been persuaded by people in Washington and also the people in Tel Aviv, that Iran was just a house of cards. It could collapse at any time. It was just very, very vulnerable. And that there was underneath it,

a seething mass of Iranians, longing to see, if you like, what they call the molocracy removed. And that then there would be an upsurge and there'd be a revolution, and it would end up like Syria. It would end up like Syria, very much affected. And that was what happened on the 13th, the attempt to do this. And it failed. It failed completely. Technically, it was very clever operation. It took months to put it into place with pre-positioning weapons

and equipment into Iran through the Kurdish Abil entrance and also across by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan played an important part in providing access for not only for missiles, but also airspace by which the Israelis could use their Standoff weapons. What was it all about? It was about that, because it was about actually destroying the state of Iran. That's what he hoped for. And on that day, on the 22nd, as I mentioned and wrote about it, Wolf, Michael Wolf was saying, you know, he kept saying, it's wonderful. I mean,

they're going to win, aren't they? This is going to be the game changer. This is going to be a fantastic move. And the Israelis are so clever. So he was expecting that. And of course, strategically, it was a bust because actually what has happened, and I want to touch on that, is that Iran has not only emerged more unified and more consolidated as a society,

it has emerged with a strong sense of Shia identity and Iranian identity that is embracing everyone. You only had to see what happened in the streets. But there's another aspect and something why this whole process is not really working is because the other day it was Muharram. That is the celebration of what happened at the Battle of Kerbala when the prophet's grandson was killed by the forces from Damascus. And it is a very symbolic state and it has fired up Shiism everywhere. And so what inadvertently Washington is doing,

it's starting a new war in the Middle East, sectarian war. ISIS is back on the scene in Syria. What's happening in Syria is terrible. Really, you know, there are mostly the Shi'i Alawites, the Alawites, the Shi'i are being slaughtered, thousands, and many of their women, their wives, their daughters, being taken as wives of ISIS, of al-Qaeda members in Syria, sex slaves, in other words, just as we saw ISIS doing before in Iraq. But the slaughter is going on of Christians and of Shi'i and of sectarianism.

And so this is building also a huge feeling amongst the Shi'i and of sectarianism. And so this is building also a huge feeling amongst the Shi'i everywhere in the Middle East. Don't forget, if you look just at the Middle East, you leave aside Indonesia and Malaysia, which are big Sunni states. Probably the Shi'i are just about 50-50 or a slight majority in the Middle East. They're not just the minorities.

They are a major fragment, major sector of power. And these are becoming very, if you like, agitated and very determined to change what's happening. So you had just a few weeks ago, four of the most influential Shi'i clerics, not in Iran, but around, if you like, the whole Shi'i world, including led by Ayatollah, Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq, wrote statements saying that if this attack went on

and particularly on the supreme leader, they would call for an ijtihad, ijtihad fatwa, they'd issue, in other words, a mandatory call on all Shi'i to join in the war against Israel and the United States. This is a consequence of what's happening. And now what we see, the big fated movement that was supposed to happen in Washington and that there would be a deal and all would be all right in Gaza and that would set the scene for Abraham's courts 2.0.

I mean, not only did that not happen, but what we're seeing now is that Trump's envoy in Lebanon, Mr. Barak, has warned the Lebanese they have a choice. Either they have to disarm Hezbollah completely. Hezbollah, the she of Hezbollah,llah are really a majority and they win the elections in Lebanon, the local elections in Lebanon. He's saying to them, he's saying to Lebanon, you have Syria on one side, you have Israel on the other side, you either do that or else you will lose Lebanon. There will be a war and Syria coupled with Israel will invade

and will break up Lebanon and create a new Al-Sham, Greater Syria. So the northern part of Lebanon, which is Sunni fundamentalists, will go to Syria and Lebanon will disappear off the map and it will just be it will just be a bigger pro-Israel Syria and it's the israelification of this part of the Middle East they are attempting but it's more likely to start a civil war in Lebanon. The Shi have already said, as Bola has said, categorically, we will not disarm whatever America says. But that is the ultimatum that has been given. So we're seeing the whole of the Middle East, if you like, affected by, it's a return to 10 years ago with ISIS now taking, playing a role in, if you like, in Syria and in Lebanon and in Pakistan and in Iraq, of course, all of this is heating up and is becoming,

has become highly volatile because of the bombing of Iran, of all and the attempt to kill the supreme leader, one of the what they call the Majah, the leaders of of Shia Islam around the world. So it's created a big strong pushback and of course Qatar and Israel are pushing this using this ISIS forces in Syria. Just as 10 years ago, I've been through this movie so many times now, when the West fires up the extremist Sunni, if you like, radicals to go out and kill people who are different, who are Shi or Alawite or some other sect, which they don't like. And of course, I mean, this is a setting not for creating, if you like. This isn't going to bring about the Abraham 2.0 solution. It's going to create mayhem in the area. And also even although I mentioned we

use the term Salafists for these radical ISIS type of forces, but ordinary Sunnis are actually being radicalized too in favor of Iran and the Sunnis. Not, I mean, not as in mass, but some important Sunni groups are now showing their allegiance to Iran. So we're working it up and of course Iran is preparing for the next part of that, of this war. So you have two wars now going on in the Middle East, the war on Iran, and then you have the war on Syria,

Lebanon, and on Iraq as well. And then of course you have the other three wars in Russia and China taking place. And all of those are going bad. So not only the Gaza did fail, the Gaza summit in Washington didn't produce a solution. But Iran did not produce any outcome. It produced the opposite. Iran is now the leading state in the Middle East. It's a very strong state. It's a big state, 90 million people and with weapons and resources to match.

Let me ask you about what you think the White House's thinking was. I mean, did Mossad so radically misjudge the likely outcome in Iran? Did the CIA and MI6 so radically misjudge the likely outcome to the Trump bombing in Iran? Or did Netanyahu and Trump just disregard professional intelligence data and do what they wanted to do? No, they completely misread the ground. Completely misread the ground. They really believed that, you know, after what had happened to Hezbollah and the assassinations of Hezbollah leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, they really believed that if they did a decapitation strike in Iran, killing their leading scientists and their leading military commanders, and perhaps killing, they tried to kill the supreme leader and the clerics at the same time. They thought then it would collapse because

they persuaded themselves that Iran is this house of cards and you know it is believed just as you hear the same story endlessly played. This is why I call it the the blunders of hubris. You see the same story about Russia. I don't need to remind you, you've heard it often enough on this channel. You know, Russia is weak. Its economy is collapsing. Any moment now, Putin will be pushed out and there'll be a revolution and it will all change back and they'll have someone facet and westernized to deal with and they can carve up Russia and get its resources just as they hope to do in Iran. And it is the same story.

How many times have you heard China is weak and it's easily and the tariffs will force it onto its knees. All of these things have been completely and utterly misjudged because of the sort of psyche in Israel and its persuasion. And clearly they had persuaded Trump that this was what was going to happen just as they persuaded the neocons and the others who have persuaded Trump, it seems, now to escalate against Russia, which is going to be a huge mistake. And all of this is really compounded by the fact that the financial side of it is proving to be a mistake too. Look around the world. All of the states apart from Europe are trying to combine together to challenge the sort of shock and awe of tariffs and are not

accepting it. And China certainly isn't. But other states, even coming and talking to the Europeans and saying, look, we can't have this, we're not going to do this. So, I mean, it is, we will see a big, I think, exit. If anything, if it's anything like Lindsey Graham suggests what is going to be said tonight by Trump, that they're going to remove, they're going to start seizing the frozen Russian assets, that they are going to take them and that then Europe is going to use those or other means to pay for America to send more long-distance missiles to attack Russia, and that they are then going to sanction Russia. If it's all of these things, I mean, well, it's the beginning of the end of the Trump project.

It is the decomposition, I believe, of the whole project. It's that serious. He is prepared either to address the nation or to make some kind of comment later today, Monday July 14 on Iran. Do you expect he's going to go back to the Biden mode? We're going to give them whatever they need. We're going to take arms that we need and send them to Iran or sell them to Great Britain, which will sell them to, I said Iran, I meant Ukraine, and sell them to Iran or sell them to Great Britain, which will sell them to, I said Iran, I meant Ukraine, and sell them to Ukraine. What is he going to say tonight about Ukraine that will

undermine his credibility and maybe Ukraine or Iran? Ukraine. Ukraine. Well, that's what, that's what, you know, Lindsey Graham has been on television and sort of prefacing it and saying you're going to see a huge change. There's going to be, as I say, there's going to be action by the Europeans and the Americans to take some of the frozen assets and to use them to fund weapons supplies to Ukraine. There's going to be a big increase in weapons, long-range weapons that, I don't know, we're only relying on Lindsey Graham's account of

it. I don't want people to understand that these have actually been announced yet. It could be tonight that Trump will announce it. But he's suggested that there will be missiles that can strike Moscow or St. Petersburg long distance into Russia and that they'll put the mother of all sanctions onto Russia, 500% sanctions on anyone purchasing Russian oil or gas. I mean, the latter is really just, I think, a joke. I mean, if they were really imposed, I mean, it would be end of the trading system, the end of the energy trading system.

It would be a really, it's just not really very, I mean, the whole package, I think it's likely to send the dollar diving because people will be saying it's not going to be dangerous. Here's what Senator Graham said yesterday on this. Chris, cut number two. I expect in the coming days you will see weapons flowing at a record level to help Ukraine defend themselves.

I expect in the coming days that there will be tariffs and sanctions available to President Trump he's never had before. I expect in the coming days more support from Europe regarding their efforts to help Ukraine. Putin made a miscalculation here for six months. President Trump tried to entice Putin to the table. The attacks have gone up, not down. One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump. And you just watch in the coming days and weeks, there's going to be a massive effort to get Putin to the table. And to those who are helping him, China, buying cheap Russian oil and having

no accountability, those days are about over. and having no accountability, those days are about over. And World War III is what they're looking for. Is the United States going to put missiles in Ukraine aimed at Moscow and St. Petersburg, as you alluded to earlier? We're back to where we were when this thing started, when NATO would harm Ukraine. That's not what me, I was saying. It was what Blumenthal and Graham were saying. But I'd just like to say, at the end of this, Sergey Ryabkov, who is the Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia

and gave an interview to TASS in the last day or two. And he said on this, that all the aspects of the basis, the very starting blocks for normalization haven't even begun. So what I'm talking about is you remember that the United States seized the diplomatic premises of Russia, consulates and other buildings that belonged under the Vienna Treaty to Russia. None of them, there's been no progress on returning.

There's been no progress on, if you like, establishing flights between Russia and the United States. There's no progress even in nominating a US ambassador to Moscow. And he said on all of these, you know, this is the first steps to our relationship with the United States and nothing has happened. And I mean, so, you know, what's going on? You know, I think it's just the same thing as before that it is thought by the Trump and his team that they can just, you know, trick, entice Putin into what I call an attritional cage

by putting more weapons into Ukraine and trying to sort of wear him down till he's forced to accept a ceasefire which is against Russian interests and so that the war can be kept going. So that the war can continue for 10 years, 20 years, whatever it takes to weaken Russia and finally they hope break it up. But you know all of this

is I mean this is just hype. I don't think you know I don't think it will happen. But what is the other you know that's the only explanation why has not a single move been taken. A rear cop is a very serious diplomat. I know him. And, you know, he speaks actually in low key. He isn't dramatic. And he says nothing is happening. So what if you're Putin, if you're Putin and you're Russian, you assume, you know, this is deliberate. I mean, they are not prepared to do anything to really make a relationship work. So what they are doing is simply trying to sort of coax Russia into giving up on its own interests so that America can count this as a great success.

But I would like to return to Iran, because you mentioned Iran a little earlier. And I wanted to say that that is also moving to a very serious point. Because I think what is today on the 15th, I think it's Tuesday, tomorrow, the Euro 3 are about to start the process for snapback of sanctions on Iran. They've said that they formally said they're going to launch the process of snapback of sanctions. At the same time,

the Europeans are telling Russia and they're telling everyone they want the IAEA to go back into Iran. Now, it's the IAEA, I don't know what to say, they're about as popular as a herd of skunks at the moment in Iran. I mean, you know, they need massive protection. They are so unpopular. They're regarded as the authors of, you know, the killings of their scientists and other things. But the combined thing is going to push Iran towards leaving the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, the NPT. It's inevitable because they are not going to have the IEA coming back in that sort of free mode they had before. They can have certain, I mean, subject to the Security Council complete monitoring. But if there is an attempt to do snapback elections, which

will then be mandatory for all UN member states to impose on Iran, I think you will see that. And what does that mean? It's going to trigger another round of war because Israel will say, look, they've cheated. They probably kept the uranium, enriched uranium. They probably still got it. And we are committed to making sure

that it doesn't reach a bomb. Actually, what the Israelis believe and genuinely believe is that there's no way that they can guarantee that Iran will not get a bomb as things stand, even with inspections and technical means. The only way is to have regime change and to put in a Western government, a Pavlov or someone like that, as a Western puppet. That's the only way they see it. So, you know, round two is coming. So we have that and we have the escalation in Russia. We have the wider escalation going on, not only in Syria, but also in Azerbaijan, which the West, NATO and Britain particularly

are heating up and using not only against Iran but they're using this caucus, caucus of state against Russia. The Russians are throwing out many Azerbaijanis because it's largely criminal groups in that who the Russians believe were possibly responsible for that spider's web attack on the strategic bombers. They facilitated the positioning of equipment. I mean, these are really, there's been a long history of Azerbaijanis having a criminal group set. You're painting a picture as if we're on the precipice of World War III. I'm painting a picture that because of these three egregious mistakes, actually everything is heating up

across, yes, across the globe. It's heating up even in you know in the environs of China too where states are being very much pressed to join in a boycott trade boycott of China and China is not going to accept that. So everything is heating up everywhere at the same time. And that's why I say, you know, this what's proposed will hear tonight for Russia. What's going to happen after Tuesday if the euro three then trigger snapback sanctions, what's going to happen if really Israel with US backing starts a war in Syria and Lebanon? I mean, another war there.

What's going to happen with China with more tariffs? All of these things are coming together, in a sense, to make a perfect storm, yes. But it's actually also the point at which you can say what the world is watching is the decomposition of Trump, of him. He is becoming not only hubristic, but it is extending beyond the capacities of the United States resources. He's overextended the United States to such

an extent that this is going to be a real crisis. And all these other things are adding to it. The sense of no credibility, the sense that these tariffs, I mean, are not believable by some in the West, but in other parts of the world, you know, they are a threat to their well-being. So there's a big, big change taking place. I think we are at the crossroads, the crossroads where there is the clear signs of, if you like, the decomposition of the United States Western project at the moment, and this is accelerating and producing a strengthening of Russia, Iran, and China, and the global South, and even the other states in Southeast Asia. Why was it Japan and South Korea didn't come to the recent NATO meeting? Because they disapproved of Iran. I mean, these are the two closest,

some of the closest allies of the United States are voting with their feet and with their pocket and saying, no, we disagree what happened with a sort of complete out of the blue attack on Iran. And what's happened in Iran is heating up the whole of the Middle East because it is becoming a war again between the al-Qaeda-supported extremists, the fundamentalists who kill others who are not, if you like, Sunni militants and who are now we see an increasing Shia repost across the board,

across the Middle East. And I don't know what the consequences of this will be, but I can just say it's not good news for, you know, Abraham Accords 2.0 at all. Alastair, thank you very much. Thank you for a truly brilliant and courageous analysis of all of this. We'll all be watching Trump tonight. We may need to call on you again very soon, but thank you for all of this. I look forward to seeing you soon. Thank you, my friend. My pleasure. Thank you so much, Dutch. Coming up today, a busy day for you. At 10 o'clock this morning, Ray McGovern. At 1045 Eastern, Professor Jeffrey Sachs. At 1130, Larry Johnson. At 1 o'clock, Colonel Douglas MacGregor.

At 2 o'clock, Scott Ritter. At 4 o'clock, Scott Dawson on the Epstein files. Justin Napolitano for Judging Freedom. MUSIC