Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke : Trump’s Plan Is To Have No Plan

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

Alastair Crooke : Trump’s Plan Is To Have No PlanSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live

as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Monday, March 16th, 26. Alastair Crook will be with us on just a moment. What if Trump's plan is to have no plan? But first, this. Don't you just cringe when people say, I told you so? Sorry, I told you. Gold and silver would reap the benefits due to excessive money printing, inflation, and global uncertainty. It's here. It's happened. Gold and silver have reached all-time highs. Did you call Lear Capital and buy some? It's not too late. Experts are predicting higher prices ahead. Why? Nothing has changed.

Geopolitical chaos, cost of living crises, and a weaker dollar are driving central banks to boost their gold reserves. Forecasts suggest gold could hit $6,000 an ounce and silver $200 an ounce. Even Morgan Stanley ditched the 6040 rule for 60, 2020, putting 20% into precious metals. They're getting educated and you should too. All the best in the business and the people I trust, Lear Capital, get their reports, get the facts, get some gold and silver. Tell them the judge sent you and get up to $20,000 in bonus gold or silver.

Call 800, 511, 4620 or go to Learjudge nap.com. Alster Crookedaddea, my dear friend, welcome here, as always. President Trump told NBC news over the weekend that Iran leadership had reached them via an unnamed intermediary wanting to talk about a ceasefire and wanting to commence negotiations. The Iranian foreign minister will play the clip in a minute told CBS not true at all. Who's telling the truth?

Exactly. The Iranian foreign minister, completely. The Iranians refuted at all levels and in concert together, they all say there's not going to be a cease far. We haven't achieved our objectives yet. And only when we achieve our objectives might there be a possibility. But this is a long war and we are not interested in any discussions. So that's just a lie that has been put out to deceive and to disrupt.

Here's the Iranian foreign minister saying definitively we've not asked for a ceasefire. Why would we after they started wars the last two times we were negotiating? Chris, cut number one. President Trump said this weekend he is not ready to make a deal with Iran because the terms aren't good enough yet. Has Iran asked for a ceasefire? No, we never asked for a ceasefire. and we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes,

and this is what we have done so far, and we continue to do that, until President Trump comes to the point that this is an illegal war with no victory, and, you know, there are people, being killed only because President Trump wants to have fun. This is what he has said. Have fun? Yes, this is what he said, that they are sinking, you know, ships and targeting different places

because it is fun. I mean, you can't make that up. In fairness to the foreign minister, here is exactly what Trump said. I hate to give you the double barrel of these tapes, but in fairness to both sides, here's what Trump said about having fun. Chris, cut number two. The Navy is gone. It's all lying at the bottom of the ocean. Forty-six ships. Can you believe it? In fact, I got a little upset with our people. I said, what quality of ship? Excellent, sir. Top of the line. I said, why did we just capture the ship? We're going to use it? Why did we sink them? He said, it's more fun to sink him. He said, that's a... That was the president's irreverent use of the word fund. All right, back to this bit about who's asking who for negotiations. Does Trump want to create the impression that the Iranians are back on their heels

and are asking for negotiations when, in fact, the opposite is the case? Yes, clearly. I mean, clearly Trump, he does not have a plan. He does not know how to bring. those war to a conclusion, but the pressures are growing on him enormously from all quarters, economic, political pressures are mounting extraordinarily, and he's still searching around for a way that he can claim victory and get out of this conflict. But the Iranians don't intend to accept that unless there was a radical change in position by the UNRU.SEN.

United States. For example, the lifting of all sanctions on Iran, the return of their frozen assets, an end to wars on Iran, an end to American bases in the Gulf. If all of those are done, maybe there'll be something to discuss. If that's put on the table, maybe something to discuss. But until then, it's a long war. And as I've said before, from the Iranian perspective, it's only just got started, and they're going to continue it. And as I tried to explain earlier, you know, the way in which we measure war is so distorted. We have one lens, which is the lens of simply air assault, massive air assault, the destruction of the capital, the destruction of leadership, the destruction of the commanding,

if you like, the command infrastructure, and that everything is measured by that. But what happens when the people on the other side are fighting something completely different, an asymmetrical war, which is not about having an air force, which is not about having a conventional navy, which is not about having a convention,

fighting in a conventional way. In fact, it was designed specifically to be the, opposite to what happened in 2003 on the attack on Saddam Hussein. And within a short period, three weeks, the United States had destroyed the command, the leadership of Iraq at that time. And so they designed and they started work from that point. And they said, well, look, start from the basis that our enemies, i.e. the United States, has massive air force and Israel too. So what is the answer to that? Well, one of the answers to that is you actually put your missiles underground

away from the air force, deep buried into silos, not mobile launchers, but in deep silos. And that becomes your air force. Your air force are the missiles. You don't put up planes, except you have some planes to shoot down drones, but you don't have an Air Force. You don't have a Navy, and if you like the conventional Western way of thinking, you know, battleships and aircraft carriers. You have high-speed submarines. You have underwater drones. You have surface drones, things that can move at vast speeds, very quickly, undetectable, and there's really no defense. against them. So we are, you know, you can't actually sum up this war when you have sort of apples and oranges and try and compare the two, conventional war. I saw this very clearly when I was

in Lebanon during the Israeli war on Hezbollah in 2006. And all the time, American propaganda and Israeli propaganda was saying, you know, oh, how many tons of bombs have been dropped? So many, they have a target list of 2000 and they're working through this target list and it's going so well and they're destroying all of these depositories where the arms are hidden. They're destroying the missile launches. It's going to be a great success. And what happened? it was a failure. After 33 days, Israel asked for a cease-far because they'd run out of pockets. They'd run out of the material to fight it. And this is very similar to what's happening in this case. Iran has dispersed its command throughout the whole country into various provinces. This is called the

mosaic function. So that when the supreme leader is killed and was killed, then automatically, The machine goes into operation. There is a machine that takes over with already pre-designated targets, instructions, to each one of these autonomous commands with the initiative of the commander of these different commands to follow the instructions at their own initiative in their own way. And this means that the structure of the defense is not, cobbled, is not damaged when the Supreme Leader is killed or when the command infrastructure is destroyed by bombing, actually the system goes on functioning and continues unabated.

And that's what we had. As soon as the Supreme Leader was killed, within one hour, the instructions were opened and they started the first phase. The first phase was the attack on a American bases in the Gulf. The second phase, the destruction of radars everywhere, major radars across the Persian Gulf area. And only then it started the third phase, which was to destroy, if you like, the intercept capacity, to tackle a logistics issue,

to draw out the limited intercept holdings of the West by using ancient missiles. They were using missiles that had been produced in 2012 and 2013 to begin with, simply to lower the stock of intercept missiles available, either in the Gulf states with American forces there or within Israel. And it's been successful in doing that. There may be some, but it looks to me from all I see, that Israel is really getting extremely low if they have any intercept capacity.

It's the same in the Gulf. The radar systems have been destroyed, so Israel doesn't even get any warning now of an incoming missile from Iran. So we move to the fourth phase, which is when Israel turns its attention to, when Iran turns its attention to Israel. and you start using its big missiles. The big missiles, which as I say haven't been used so far,

dug deeply underground and they fire directly from below the surface. They don't have launches. The big missiles come up through Silas, deep underground and attack target Israel. This is an extraordinary, very granular explanation of why the Iranians are doing as well as they are. How could the U.S. not have known this? How could the U.S. and Israel have so grossly underestimated Iranian strategy and Iranian strength and Iranian resilience? How could they possibly have thought that simply by

murdering the Ayatollah and his senior people, the Iranian government would collapse? Well, essentially it's hubris, but it's also being stuck in a way of thinking and never changing from it. I mean, you know, it is well known amongst the American military elite that never has a simple air strikes produced the result that America was looking for. I mean, sometimes it took longer for that to fail. sometimes it was very quick. But they are stuck in this very conventional way of, you know, shock and all. Quick, in-out operation. Let's go and obliterate the leadership and the command, and this will succeed.

But it's failing now particularly because I would say we're at a turning point. And I don't mean a military turning point. in that way. I mean something is changing psychologically. And first of all, something is happening in Israel. I don't know what it is exactly, but as you know, we scar the, you know, the Israeli press and what people are saying on their, on telegram and other means. And, you know, suddenly it's changed. The language has gone away from this bradogeo of saying. you know, everything is fine, we're winning, and suddenly you get senior commanders,

senior military people saying, we have to bring it to an end. No, it's got to happen. I can't tell you what it is, but it seems almost as if something strategic has shifted in Israel. And today, again, even this morning's Hebrew press, you know, there are articles on, you know,

banalities on the intricacies between the parties, not even major parties, no mention of the war, no mention of where things are going. It's uncanny. And often this happens in Israel. Suddenly there is a change of opinion, a change of sentiment, and you can see it, even if you don't know what it means. But the opposite has happened in Iran. And what I, you know, understand and it's pretty evident anyway from the reporting that you see. I mean, Iran has had a psychological shift too. People are confident. People are full of resolve. The country has come together as it has never been together since 79. They are absolutely determined on this conflict and on winning it and they have no qualms and they understand that it's painful, but nonetheless,

they will endure and they will prevail. And so there is a very strong and growing sentiment in Iran of nationalist religious feeling there. And that's in contrast to what we see in Israel. And, you know, you are the experts there, you're on the ground, but this seems to be a touch of panic in Washington, in places. So we've got big shifts taking place at the psychic level. And at the military level, too, because these strategy of Iran, which they've been planning for 20 years or so,

against the United States, let me underline the principal enemy was always understood to be the united states which has for 47 years been engaged i mean the the administration the elite portion of the american structure in trying to destroy um iran one way or another and so iran has gone to that it is tried to focus on on supply lines, on logistics of, if you like, intercept missiles and other logistics, and the logistics of the economy, of the American economy, and of the international economy by not closing, but if you like, gating the Hormo's straits. And I think it's calculated is going to be very, very difficult. for whatever the decision made,

but to try and open that, it's not going to be easy. It's almost impossible. As long as the Iranians want it shut, it will stay shut. Because, as I say, they have underwater drones that, I mean, you won't pick up, and they're very fast.

It's like, if you like, a high-speed torpedo, but one which can be steered remotely and will go to the target and select its own target. They have speedboat drones equipped either with anti-ship missiles or with just explosives. One of those blew up a tanker not a few days ago. And they have about 600 of those. They have about 300 small ships equipped

with anti-ship missiles. And they have submarines too, about 20, submarines which can farm missiles, anti-ship missiles, from underwater in a submerged state. So, you know, it's not, so when people talk about, well, let's open Hormoz, it needs to be open now, well, how? What are you going to do? Put troops on the ground? I think, I can't imagine that that decision will really, will really hold. The coastline there, the coastline, the Iranian coastline along the Hormos waterway is 2,000 kilometers. How many troops do you, would you expect you need for that? And also, the methodology for controlling Hormos is not on the coast.

There are, it's got honeycombed with anti-ship missiles all along their coast. But behind that is where they can continue to fire, they continue to fire missiles, drones from well back from the shoreline. So you'd have to, you know, you'd have to occupy a vast area of Iran. It would take many, many men, many troops to do that, and they would be defeated. It would be an absolute disaster for the United States. So the analysis that you gave either was not presented to Trump or was presented to him and he rejected it. He has a neocon coterie around him, including his secretary of state. He has a quick draw, let's kill him all, secretary of defense.

We saw one general who stated publicly and another who leaked to the Washington Post that air power. has never, ever, air power alone, has never succeeded in subduing a country. In fact, it unites them. Does he have any plan, any plan beyond his failed, quick draw in and out, decapitate the leadership, and the masses will revolt? Does he have any plan beyond that that you can ascertain? No. And I think he's adverse to getting information and he's adverse to being criticized.

I think, you know, although we've heard that, like General Kane, vised against this operation and others too, he didn't like that information, so it was mentally sort of blocked out and rejected. And Trump always, I mean, you know, he doesn't want to be corrected. He never asks people for criticism. He wants people to say, oh, yes, Mr. President. Preston. Yes, please go ahead. So, I mean, you know, he is adverse to taking that sort of information because, as he's once said very clearly, someone asked for him, well, you know,

who are your advisors? Who do you take information from? And he paused a while and he just said, well, from me, from my instinct, from my gut and from, you know, that's where. And when I feel something, I know that it's right and I do it. But you can't, it's very difficult. Maybe that works in a domestic political sense in that Trump has always had this ability seemingly to sort of feel an audience when he's speaking to them. And you can see him visibly doing that. But, you know, it's very difficult to run a war when you won't listen to the fact people are saying, you know, but you're running one type of war, and the Iranians are running a completely different war against you. And your war is not one that succeeds, because actually, what have you done?

What have been the effect of bombing? And once you run out of targets, just as I saw in Lebanon in 2006, you know, and then Israel had targets set up for about a week, no more. And then after that, Well, there were no targets. So what did they do with Air Force? They go and bomb ordinary houses and things that dummies and drone in what was put up as pictures of launchers and other things, which were false. They were just dummies put out there to deceive them. And so at the end of it, they had to ask.

Leif and Hezbollah, as you know, because it is now engaged fully to the surprise of Israel with massive attacks into the north of Israel. Hezbollah has really done that, some to Tel Aviv. And now Israel is said that, and started today an invasion of Lebanon. They're going to invade Lebanon, they say, I mean, we don't know exactly what their plans are, but up to the Littani River, which is the southern third of the country, and going to occupy that. And so they've had to mobilize a large number of reservists to do that.

And the Hezbollah has been taking a severe toll on troops and on tanks and on radar systems and technical centers. right across the north of Israel. So this is another area where, you know, I mean, is there going to be a win from this, from Trump's point of view, from Israel's point of view? I think it's highly unlikely. You know, Hezbollah went absolutely quiet

in this last period. They knew that they'd been penetrated by technical means, by whatever means that Israel had intelligence, And they took a measure that they would be completely in the black. So that journalists who used to talk to them, people who would like to get information, talk generally to Hezbollah about military matters, finish. Nothing. Nothing leaked out. And even the Israeli intelligence is saying that they know nothing, zero, about Hezbollah of today.

So Hezbollah moved to an old type of warfare, which is a guerrilla warfare. They attack and disappear. And it leaves the Israelis very frustrated because they never, you know, again, it's the same thing. They want a conventional, you know, big par attack on Hezbollah. They want a Hezbollah out there. And then they want to use massive force, massive. massive airpower in return. And Hezbollah is doing its own asymmetrical war.

It's not allowing that. It is attacking and killing Israelis. We know that. I mean, and then they disappear. Actually, this is a magical war. Israeli is a magical war because we've got all of this kinetic action going on. And according to Israel and the Israeli press, Oh, oh, just a few light casualties.

Maybe there was Sri Lankan injured in this attack. How many deaths in Israel? Apparently none, just light injuries here and there, despite two-toned foreheads raining down day after day on it. And America only six, but no more. Everyone's back on duty, we're told by Mr. Hexeth. It's all fine. there we are. After two weeks of war, apparently only six people have died in it, apart from the

Iranians, which they say massive amount of people have been killed. The Iranians say that they probably lost about, I think they say it's about 3,000 people have been killed. Well, Alistair, thank you very much. As always, an extraordinary analysis and deeply appreciated. When we speak next, will the work still be going on? I think so. Yes, it will. Yes. Yes.

I think the next three weeks will be quite crucial in it, both economically in terms of the psychological aspect and finally in the military context too. But something is changing. The psychology is shifting, both in markets, but also in the real economic world, and also somehow something is going on in Israel that we don't really understand,

but something is changing, and we have to wait and find out what it is that that is. Thank you, Alastair. All the best. We'll look forward to seeing you again soon. Thank you, my friend. Thank you, Judge. Sure. Coming up later today at 9 o'clock this morning,

If you're watching us live in 30 minutes, Larry Johnson at 10 o'clock this morning, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, at 11 o'clock this morning, Ray McGovern. At 1.30 this afternoon, one of America's foremost experts on Iran, who profoundly disagrees with the war, Trita Parsi. Judge Napolitano for judging free. Don't you just crange what people?