Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Turkey Turns on Russia.

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Alastair Crooke: Turkey Turns on Russia.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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end, so to speak. Are we closer to World War III today or closer to a wider regional war today than we were a week ago? I think the answer to both is yes. Yes, it's certainly Lavrov at the OSCE meeting, I think on Thursday, said this Cold War, the Cold War is turning into a hot war very quickly. And I think that's right. I mean, look at it, the pressure is going on. We've seen what happened in Romania, Moldavia, Georgia, all those pressures on the elections. I mean, overturning Romania just like that.

We see problems widely coming. And in the Middle East, I fear you know, really what's happened in the Middle East may undo much of the, if you like, settled life of the Middle East. It really, it sort of unlocks and unpicks whatever there was. Syria was a sort of hub that everything is sort of concentrated in. And when it blows up, it'll set all sorts of ramifications starting across the border.

Churchill, of course, famously said that there are no lasting friendships, there are no lasting enmities, there are only lasting interests. How appropriate in this case, when, correct me if I'm wrong, Alistair, the new Syrian head of state is former al-Qaeda, who fought against the United States, now supported by the United States. Is that correct? You are absolutely correct. It's a conglomerate. It is various sort of groups together, some of them even somewhat secular, sponsored by various patrons. But the main one, the HDS, is a former member of ISIS and a former associate of Baghdadi in Damascus, in Baghdad. And then we have his group are now really taking control

In Syria, it's a mayhem. It's really chaotic, but I'm not surprised because although there's a Strong campaign across the West to try and say that he's reformed, he's changed, he's not what he was. He doesn't any longer cut off people's head because they are takfir, that they are forbidden. He doesn't do that any longer. He's really all for diversity and inclusion. Well, I just don't believe it. Some years ago when I was in Kyrgyzstan, I was taken by the authorities there to meet the inhabitants of Mosul

who had been invaded by ISIS at that time. Probably at the same time that Joulani was there. That was in his ISIS stage before he founded al-Nusra, which was ISIS's, if you like, protege for Syria. And the stories were just terrible, told to me by the families and children who'd watched their parents die and things like this. It was incredible.

So I think, you know, I fear for what will be coming. It's already mayhem, sort of attacks going on, people living in, I mean, the presidential palace has been stripped and looted. Assad's old house has been similarly stripped. The central bank, we've seen people coming out with sack loads of cash. They've just raided the bank. They've taken everything. There have been executions. I've seen pictures of a hanging of a member of Assad's family, allegedly, but the hanging is very visible. And there have been reports of executions taking place in Aleppo. I think, you know, this was entirely predictable that HTS would establish, because this is what they did in Idlib, they established a really brutal control,

Wahhabist control, that is an extreme form of Islamist control over Idlib when Jolani was in charge of it and anyone who disagreed with him, you know, woe betide them. And now he's in Damascus and now paradoxically for all of you who remember what happened in earlier times, he's sitting in the mosque, the famous Umair mosque in Damascus, announcing he is the ruler of Syria. I don't think it bodes well for the region, and no, it doesn't bode well for the next stage, if you like, of the war, because even though this is far removed,

in a sense it's connected to Ukraine. It was always part of weakening Russia. I'm sorry for interrupting you. Is the fall of Assad a defeat for Vladimir Putin? This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. You know, when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself, talking to someone who understands can really help.

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And I think it was apparent to President Putin what was happening because Russia some time ago, I think even back to 2018, had offered Assad both to re-equip his army and to provide training. And Assad said no. And that was, I imagine, a surprise to Russia at the time. But the same thing has happened in this latter period I imagine a surprise to Russia at the time. But the same thing has happened in this latter period when Iran has tried to support Assad and indeed they came and warned him two months earlier

that there was trouble brewing in Idlib and that he should take account of this, that this was very serious in Idlib and that, you know, he should take account of this, that this was very serious and he needed to take account of what was happening in Idlib. And he refused to believe the Revolutionary Guard who brought this information. And then the former speaker, Ali Larijani, came to try again to persuade Assad to take the situation seriously.

And he wouldn't even see him to begin with. And when he did, he dismissed it. Why did this happen? I think for complex reasons. I think what was going on, I mean, first of all, let's talk about, just say a few things about the army. At the bottom of all this were sanctions, the Caesar sanctions on the one hand, which had reduced Syria to absolute poverty.

On the other hand, the Kurds, America's forces, the CENTCOM, had created a little, if you like, autonomy in the northeast of Syria and given them all of Syria's oil reserves. So they had no oil reserves. Idlib on the western side was the industrial hub, and that was run by Turkish Ottoman-esque militia on behalf of principally Turkey. And so there was nothing to sustain it. And to give you a concrete example, a member of the army, Assad's army, was being paid $7 a month. The general was being paid $40 a month.

I mean, how do you, you know, you just don't survive. And so of course, the army was demoralized. It was in poor shape, it hadn't done any training. There were units there that really didn't exist. There were the elite units. But I think probably like what happened in 2006, many of these military leaders had been paid off. And I know that the HTS were offering the Syrian army something like $400 to give up their weapons. And if you're on $7 a month, $400 is a princely sum. And so the army was in bad shape. The economy was in bad shape. People were desperately poor in the main structure. And I think there was a large element that they just lost hope.

But what caused Assad, I think, to change was something slightly different. It was that I remember some years ago when Mohammed bin Salman was sort of first setting out, MBS was first setting out on the political stage, and MBZ of the UAE was his protector and advisor. And I know that he said to him, listen, if you want to be crown prince in Saudi Arabia, then the route to being crown prince is through Israel and through the Israeli allies in Washington. That's what you must do if you want to be crown prince.

And I think, in a sense, what we saw in the last few years was that Assad was moving closer and closer to the Gulf states and away from both Russia and Iran. And I think he is taking that sort of advice, perhaps from, I don't know, some of the Gulf leaders, that the route to, if you like, his future and his protection lay in coming closer to the Gulf states and distancing himself from Iran and Russia, which he has been doing for about three or four years now, moving away. And, of course, I mean, they saw that. They tried to assist but were refused.

And so I think at the end of it, there was almost no alternative. There was just it had to be, I think they just said the game's up. I'm sorry, but the game's up. Corruption and everything. It's up and you have to go. Here's sort of a double question, but both of it, both ends of it involve Israel. A, what role did Israel play in the demise of Assad? And B, was the ceasefire with Hezbollah a deception, a trick,

in order to trigger the acceleration of Assad's departure? And I suppose C, was Amos Hochstein the circus master of all this? Well, it's quite clear, and the Turks have said this, that they knew for six months ago what was happening in Idlib. And as I've said to you, the Iranians were warning Assad about this, even some months before it happened. And many of these forces that were engaged in this uprising or this coup, if you like, were in fact American-trained, connected with America, the ones in the south,

particularly from Al-Tanaf in the south, that came up from the south, were American trained groups. And this, I think, I think that clearly Israel knew what was going on and quite clearly they knew what was happening because on the last day of the ceasefire, the very last day of the ceasefire, they bombed all the crossings into Syria. And they did that so that Hezbollah couldn't cross into Syria and support Assad or support the Syrian forces as they had been during the civil war. Hezbollah played a critical role and they were there in fact in smaller numbers until just very recently when they evacuated their last forces from Syria. Did Netanyahu know? Of course course he knew. And of course, I mean, it was no coincidence that the ceasefire came at the point at which they expected

the supply lines across Syria would be terminated, which they were. And so, yes, they knew that. And they're very happy about it at the moment. Israel is in a rhapsody of excitement at what's happened at Syria going and seeing this as part of the new Middle East and everything has changed. The resistance has been broken.

And now Lebanon has been, if you like, attacked. Now Syria next next Iraq. And just to be clear, I mean, Israel has been bombing massively Syria in these last days, bombing their defense, bombing their military airports, bombing their weapons bases. I mean, dropping bunker busters bomb across Syria to destroy all its military infrastructure, just so that for the future, it will be incapacitated to defend itself

or to take any military action at all. Small elements of the Syrian forces did escape into and took armored vehicles and tanks into Iraq. But basically, it's been addressing this very issue in Moscow. We have a full screen of one of the key lines in what he said. Syrian President Assad has resigned and left Syria following negotiations with various parties involved in the Syrian conflict. Russia did not take part in the talks. Alistair, President-elect Trump in his usual pithy way said over the weekend that the reason

Assad's government collapsed is because its benefactor, whom he named as Putin, deserted him. Is that a fair assessment? No, I don't think it's a fair assessment that he deserted him. I mean, I think to a certain extent, Assad had deserted Russia and had deserted Iran in the hope that he could sort of normalize himself through getting closer to the Gulf states and move further away from the resistance and Russia and Iran. So I don't think that is right at all. And I don't think it was because of israel forces this was a strategic move and i think that when it came to it both iran and russia felt you know it is what it is

i mean there's no the the army is irrecoverable it's gone so far down If they'd taken the help that had been offered by Russia some years ago, or Iran's offer to bring in forces to assist with the fight, it might be different, but it wasn't different. Assad went to Moscow on the day before that started. It's not widely reported. Indeed, we have no reports about what happened. But he went to Moscow on, I think, the Friday, and then the insurrection started on the following day. And we don't know what Putin said to him. We don't know whether he said, you know, can I help you anymore?

Or possibly he also just said to him, look, I think it's game over. I'm sorry, but I think you have to accept reality. We'll do the best to try and pull together something to keep the state more or less intact. But I'm sure in saying that, and I'm sure in the sort of statements that have been coming out from both Iran and Russia, they know quite well that this is not going to happen. The state is not going to remain intact. It's going to come quite quickly apart. Turkey is trying to crush all the Kurdish forces, which many of them trained by the Americans, because they used them against ISIS. And it's very dangerous because those Kurds in the northeast have something like 50,000 ISIS prisoners held there. And it's quite likely if they're really pressed by Turkey and with his bombing and his attacks on them in Manbij, they'll open the prisons and let out these large numbers of ISIS. Remember that of these forces that have come in,

that are this coalition of militia and so on, about 30% of them, many of them are not Syrians at all. They come from either the Chechens or they come from Central Asian republics, Turkmen, Uzbeks. They're jihadists, professional jihadists who've come down to work with it. And this is why I think it's the idea that Erdogan clearly had. And I remember it's been a long gestation.

Erdogan, I remember, was always pushing, and I know this because I was in Damascus at the time, and Erdogan was urging Assad to take the Muslim Brotherhood into his government. And he used Hamas as the vehicle, the head of Hamas, and said, you must have the Muslim Brotherhood. I mean, this was an Ottoman, if you like, Muslim Brotherhood coming in to that. And Assad has said, no, but this is what Erdogan believes and what the Turks refute is that actually Erdogan thinks he controls HTS. And I've always said of 20 years experience has told me that people think that they can control these

Jihadist groups sees what we also call Salafist groups because they're simple people don't understand Geopolitics only to find that they understand your politics only too well, and they have their own aims, and they pursue their own agenda. Did Turkey slash Erdogan turn on Russia slash Putin? Yes, he betrayed him, because even a little over 10 days ago, there was an Astana meeting. This is the sort of general meeting between Iran, Russia, and Turkey that agreed and originally agreed about, if you like, that the jihadists should be contained in Idlib under strict conditions and that Turkey was a signatory to this. He was a guarantor of it,

in fact. Erdogan was a guarantor. And of course, he completely broke all the agreements with Russia and launched this insurrection against Assad and has now brought down Assad and brought down the Syrian state. What role did MI6 and CIA play in the toppling of Assad? Or is that a treatise length answer. No, both of them played a part. The forces in the south coming up towards Damascus were basically being mentored by the Pentagon. And the forces in the north, many of them had been trained by the CIA. There were actually sort of rival trainings going on, both of American origin, but for different groups. But actually, after Homs, it wasn't very difficult. Jelani took his forces to Damascus. It's only about an hour and a half car's drive from Homs to Damascus, and installed himself. Isn't there a State Department bounty on Jelani's head?

There is. There is one, exactly. Ten million, I think. The same government that puts a bounty on his head on one hand is training his forces with American taxpayer dollars on the other. That's correct. Yes, it's been like this since really, I think it was 2015 or a bit before when President Obama made that presidential finding that Assad must be removed, that he must be ousted. So there was a presidential finding then issued by President Obama, which was binding on the CIA to effect his removal. And as far as I know, it's still in effect.

I don't know if it's been changed or removed or anything. So all throughout this period, it was doing it with full presidential approval, providing weapons, providing training for those groups they felt they could control and manage. So this has been going on for a decade or more of preparing for the ouster of Assad, and that was very much part of policy. Last subject matter, Iran. Will the toppling of Assad encourage Iran to accelerate its development of nuclear weapons, or will it have some other effect on Iran,

which obviously did not want to see this happen. Well, I think, just on Wednesday, the Supreme Leader is about to make, is going to make an important statement. We don't know what it's going to say, but we're told it's going to be a very important statement, which he makes on the 11th. Now, what happens? I think Iran is playing a very careful game, but it's a difficult one. It's balancing diplomacy and balancing deterrence. And there's a big debate about this in Iran, whether the balance is right. It's shifted more recently under the president, President Faisal Ghan towards being more about diplomacy and less about ensuring the defensive capabilities and the deterrence that Iran has

against any possible attack. It's not hard to see because i mean really you know diplomacy is partly ineffective partly because you know it's not actually even about iran at all it is really about israel and about israel's capabilities um uh to persuade america uh to do this. So it's not really in the sense, you know, that it's capable of diplomatic solution in some respects because it is not just about the nuclear program, but it's also about weakening Russia on the one hand. Attack on Iran weakens Russia.

More importantly, it fits in with Trump's insistence on energy dominance and energy control, control of America's own energy resources, but control of the regional energy resources so that it can make sure that China's five-year plan is not a success. Alistair Crook, thank you very much, my dear friend. I know these events happened very quickly and appreciate all the materials you sent me to read over the weekend and appreciate, of course, your time. Look forward to seeing you back again next week. All the best.

Thank you very much. Coming up later today, we have a full day for you. At 9 o'clock this morning, Scott Ritter at 10 o'clock. Ray McGovern at 11 o'clock. Larry Johnson at noon. Pepe Escobar at 2 p.m. New York time. Professor Jeffrey Sachs. Please remember to like and subscribe.

We're two and a half weeks to Christmas. Our goal is a half a million subscriptions. We're up to 495,000. Help us get there. Josh Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thanks for watching!