Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Will Israel Face Consequences?

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

Alastair Crooke: Will Israel Face Consequences?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, December 4th, 2023. As always, as is our custom now, we begin our week with Alistair Crook. Alistair, welcome here. Alistair is coming to us from the capital of Russia, a snowy, bitter cold Moscow, but welcome here, my friend. Is Bibi Netanyahu taking Israel into Armageddon? It seems that he's going to try to do that, yes. And it seems too, quite importantly, that he has the public support for this. There was an important poll that was taken, I think, last Friday. And the poll showed that 90% of Israelis favor the complete annihilation of Hamas, whatever it takes. And there is a bit of a division between whether hostages should be important or the crushing of Hamas be more important.

But that's all universal. And the director of this institute who'd finished the polling said, look at the polling, nothing has changed. Israelis, in fact, overwhelmingly want to see the annihilation of Hamas in Gaza, and that there's no support for a ceasefire, no support for even a political process. It's a really hard line position coming out of the polling. And that's confirmed by military correspondents in the mainstream Israeli news who say exactly the same thing. The public is strongly behind that. It doesn't mean that the public is strongly behind Netanyahu, but they're strongly behind the cabinet and the government's intent in this way. And Netanyahu is still there. And although there's much talk in Washington about, you know, if only he could be disposed

of and it would move, but that's to ignore the reality of public opinion. And what is so interesting, really, I mean, quite ominous, is that the military correspondents in Israel are saying that that mood is hardening about Hamas, hardening against Gaza, and that it's not changing at all. So that even if Netanyahu is disposed of or falls, it doesn't mean that this is over because the cabinet is still all at one, unified in his policies. And it is also leading them in many respects, some of the cabinet.

There are differences, of course. There are nuances, but they're leading it in many respects, some of the cabinet. There are differences, of course, there are nuances, but they're leading it in some respects. Well, we're talking about polls, and often there's not much room for nuance, but I have to drill down on this with you. Are the Israeli people overwhelmingly in favor of the eradication of just Hamas or the eradication and removal of the Palestinian people from Gaza? The polls indicate it's the latter. The polls were really quite strong on saying that people are becoming more emotionally, every day, getting more emotionally attached to these films that they've seen of the events of October the 7th.

Apparently, Israelis are watching them time and time again and getting more emotionally involved in it. And they're saying very clearly that, you know, we cannot, there will be no stability in Israel until the whole of the Hamas sentiment, the whole of Hamas in its entirety is removed from Gaza, which effectively means removing all of its social base, all of its political support. I'm in New Jersey in the US where the sun has just come up. You're in Moscow

where it's late in the afternoon. Do you have any reports about what fighting has gone on in Gaza today, Monday, December 4th? Yes, I have. And very much as we'd all talked about and expected, when the ceasefire ended after a few days, it was actually getting to the point of diminishing

returns, I think, for both Israel and for Hamas. It often happens like that with a timeout. You know, the psychological point has been made, the victory is being claimed, and then, you know, another few days of ceasefire with no political end to it have diminishing returns. But what we've returned to is a major escalation across the region against it and heavy losses in Gaza. The Israelis have been attacking parts of the north and they've attacked the south. And there have been heavy casualties, hundreds. Some are even suggesting, and I mean, you know, not some,

but it's said from reasonable reports that it's approaching a thousand Palestinians killed in these attacks. They've been using big bombs of new sorts, taking down entire, you know, high-rise apartment blocks in this part of Gaza. And at the same time, we've seen increase of attacks by Hamas on the Israelis. Sixty Israelis have died in an ambush. I'm not sure that it's exactly 60, but it's certainly round about 60. It's reported in the Israeli press that it's 60 that have died in an ambush. Is that a significant number, Alasdairair? 60 Israeli soldiers killed in an ambush? In one incident, yes. 60 is quite big for one incident. They put bombs all around and they then, the Israelis walked into it and then they finished them off with automatic rifle fire. But there've been others. The Israelis have been killed in tunnels.

They've laid traps, taken them into tunnels, and then collapsed the tunnels on them. And in the north, there's been heavy fighting between, certainly yesterday, I can't tell you where it is exactly at the moment, but certainly yesterday, heavy, heavy fighting on the northern border. And we've seen a really new departure with the attacks on vessels. Two vessels have been attacked by the Houthis, owned or partially owned by Israel, with cruise missiles.

And one is struck. I't know how how much damage the other is struck and is apparently in danger of sinking a tanker going in of course this is going to have a huge effect and the babal mandem straight is effectively being closed by the Houthis. This has a huge impact on traffic through the sewers, and already ships are refusing to go through the passage anymore. So it's going to have a big economic effect. We're receiving reports of drones sent to attack American ships and the American ships shot them down. So a couple of questions. One, who sent drones at American ships, if you know? And two, where are these ships? I assume eastern Mediterranean. And have any American personnel been injured or killed? Yes, the answers to those questions basically are that the drones were from Yemen, from

Ansar Allah, but they were separate. They were in addition to the cruise missiles that struck the two ships. And Ansar Allah, the Houthis, have equally said very clearly that they are going to continue to attack any shipping that is Israeli-owned that passes through the Mandab Straits. And so it's having a big effect on shipping rates and on insurance already. Now, as far as I know, no Americans were involved in this, no American casualties. I don't know the exact composition of the crews, but they're likely to be non-Americans. And I don't know if the tanker is going to sink or if it can be salvaged. But the psychological impact, I mean, suddenly there is really, you know, a sense of, you know, war in

the Red Sea against Israel and against Western shipping, effectively, as well as, if you like, all these other fronts heating up. Iraq was very hot yesterday, attacks on the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq, the big American base, you'll remember it from the Iraq War, that has been attacked, and there have been other attacks elsewhere. So predictably enough, we've got this escalation. And I think it's going to put a huge pressure on Biden because we've gone past the point, really, I suspect, where we just had Netanyahu in the cabinet, if you like, not listening to Biden and sort of just ignoring him. I mean, this is now open confrontation with the White House. They are completely at odds about Gaza, where to go, what to do about Gaza in the future. And the war is getting hotter and hotter and likely to get wider and deeper. I want you to hold the thought about any dispute between the Americans and the Israeli cabinet, because I want to get back to what you

were saying about attacks on American personnel. Here's a clip from Secretary Austin, number six, Chris. Tell me if a statement like this, which we're about to watch, does more harm than good. We will not tolerate attacks on American personnel. And so these attacks must stop. And until they do, we will do what we need to do to protect our troops and to impose costs on those who attack them. Does that invite more attacks from terrorist groups? Yes, it does. Yes, it does. And, you know, because, I mean, you know, I know it's hard for people to understand,

but really the sense of American deterrence in the region is not that credible anymore. I mean, even I, when I look at the, you know, the carriers going up, the Mediterranean, they have, you know, an extraordinary 1950s look to them. I mean, you know, it's not really today's modern sort of asymmetric warfare that we're talking about. And, you know, and look what's happening in Bab al-Mandab.

One missile and the tanker limps off and is finished. One missile correctly placed into these deterrent fortresses off the Mediterranean, really will probably send them off limping for repairs somewhere. But it's not that so much. It's that every time they keep saying that they're going to do something, the question is, what are they going to do? They've only really got two choices. Either the United States has got to go in big, and I'm talking about Iraq,

Syria, something like that. But how? From what base? Where are the logistics going to come from? These are great questions. And here's Leon Panetta, who is a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and former secretary of defense, arguing that the U.S. should go in and should go in big and be aggressive. Take a listen. Do you think to date that our response has been too soft? I think I think it's been a little bit too selective. I mean, we hit some ammo dumps.

We hit some other targets. I want to go after those who are firing missiles at our troops and make sure they understand that when they fire a missile, they're going to die. And what are our troops doing in Iraq, Secretary Panetta? All right. We've been we've been through that before. You wrote over the weekend in a very compelling piece, and I don't know how you know this, but I accept what you say,

that Secretary Blinken whispered into the ear of Israeli Defense Minister Galan, you only have a few weeks. What did he mean? He meant that he didn't believe it would be sustainable for Israel to go on with what it is doing to Gaza beyond a few weeks, because the whole world is turning against it. It's losing support, and it will lose support in the United States too. And it came from Israeli quoted sources about Gallant and his discussion with Blinken. It was an openly sourced report saying that. And so, you know, that is, I mean, I think the White House is, you know, projecting it to being about, you know,

wider loss of support. Actually, what they're worried about is wider loss of support in the United States. Right. And particularly for Biden as he comes into the election year. So antiwar.com reports this morning from a variety of sources that the U.S. has shipped 15,000 pounds of bombs to the Israelis since October 8. Isn't this ridiculous? Isn't Anthony Blinken saying, here's all the

weapons you want, but don't use them? Of course. And this is why I say it's moving from, you know, it was always, the elastic was overstretched, shall we say, in credibility terms, when, you know, Biden said, well, I've got assurances that, you know, they're going to be so careful when they go and bomb South. I mean, and because we can all hear that, I mean, that, in fact, Netanyahu is saying the opposite, you know, let's thin out Gaza. And I think that, yes, it's lost all credibility and it is becoming a liability for Biden and the team facing the upcoming elections. And his support is fading very strong. You know this better to 35, are not with the president on the position he's taken with Israel. Well, that's worrying for the conversations amongst Democrats about what to do with President Biden, which were all sub rosa, have begun to bubble up toward the surface, provoked by his ambivalence on Gaza and Israel, sending all these bombs but telling them not to use them. His public faux

paws, which continue over and over and over again, and a Democratic fear that if Donald Trump is the nominee, the Republicans will control both houses of Congress and there'll be no stopping Trump. So the Democrats are openly discussing all this. As I was preparing my notes last night, which meant reading your essays, popped a piece on the Washington Post on my computer screen, and it said, who will run Gaza after the war? Will there be a Gaza after the war, Alistair? Well, let me just say that the resistance, the Hamas, the Hezbollah response to this is to say very plainly, listen, Sykes-Picot is over. It's not going to be for the West to decide how Gaza is run, who runs the area.

We are going to decide the future of Gaza. So forget it. All this talk about military intervention and NATO force. It's not going to happen. We are now. I don't know what will be the outcome of this war. No one does. But I just wanted to say it because Hamas remains very confident.

They've got the main force is going to be engaged fairly soon. I think that we don't know what will be, but the other aspect of it is that as this conflict widens and deepens, it's going to draw all forces from Gaza. It's already drawing all forces away from Gaza towards the north and other areas. There's a great concern that the Radwan forces of Hezbollah could enter Israel and enter the Galilee in numbers. And what would happen then? So that's the reaction. Forget Sykes-Picot drawing lines on the map and deciding what will happen to Gaza and what's going to happen to West Bank. This is now a civilizational struggle between Palestinians, if you like, but also from really the Islamic civilization as a whole,

now both nationalist and to a certain extent sort of popular Islamist, against the Hebraic civilization of greater Israel. And it's going to be probably a long and unpleasant war ahead. But that, in their view, is likely to settle the question of whether there's a Gaza and what part the Gaza will play and for whom will be in charge. Now, I'm not saying that they're right, the Hamas and what they're saying, but I think it's important for your viewers and listeners to understand,

you know, that what you hear, that they're sort of shaking in their shoes and they're worried and they're, you know, feeling the pressure on them. It's just totally untrue. This is not, I mean, from all the range of sources that we get, this is not what they're saying. They're saying, as I say, forget it to the West. We're going to decide the future of this region. King Hussein of Jordan has been a public supporter of Israel. Has he had enough of this? Is he about to turn on them, either verbally or in some other way? I don't think that this is something that he has much say in.

I mean, the position in Jordan is very, very delicate. And I think he's doing what he thinks is the only thing that will save his kingdom, because it's mostly a Palestinian kingdom, and the Palestinians are really angry. And if he tried to intervene in a way to see what happens in Gaza, it won't be possible. His own people will rise up and depose him. And so he's very nervous. He's got a terrible position. Furthermore, he has the difficult job. He is technically the keeper of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the one that is regularly attacked by settlers. And he is the titular keeper of Al-Aqsa.

And that's a heavy responsibility and means that also it gives him less room for maneuver because he must uphold al-Aqsa at any cost, even if that means going against America, going against Israel, anything. Without that, the whole dynasty fails. The Hashemite dynasty from Iraq to Jordan fails because that has been its one purpose in life, has been the protection of Islam's holy places. Admiral Kirby made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows yesterday, and a lot of it was his sort of Baghdad Bob-like routine, but we picked out a clip that I thought was very interesting, in which he is praising the Israelis for safe

zones in Gaza, areas in Gaza to which the Gazans can go, and in which they can feel, quote, a sense of safety, not absolute safety, but a sense of safety. Watch this, please. Let's talk about this map that you have referenced, the fact that Israel has said these specific places are safe zones. Obviously, civilians were already told to evacuate from the north. There's a sense that these civilians don't have a place to go. A UNICEF spokesperson tells The Washington Post, quote, there is nowhere to move to. Nowhere is safe in Gaza. What is your response to him and others? Well, we understand the anxiety and the fear there. I mean, not only are there still a lot of civilians in southern Gaza, there are more

civilians in southern Gaza because the Israelis accounted for humanitarian corridors to get hundreds of thousands. So we're estimating more than about a million. So that's roughly half the population of Gaza before the war is now internally displaced. That's a lot of people. And so we understand the concerns by the U.N. and by other non-governmental humanitarian organizations in there. That's why, again, we're working with our Israeli counterparts to do everything they can to provide these areas where people can go and feel a sense of safety. And again, they did put some information out in the last 24, 48 hours to articulate those kinds of areas. That's a step in the right direction. And feel a sense of safety, not be safe. This is like a used car salesman trying to sell you a piece of

junk because it's shiny. Yeah, I mean, if it's that safe, I mean, we can start advertising it as a holiday destination. Let's go to Gaza and enjoy a safe place. Look, I mean, you know, Gazans originally thought that, you know, refugee camps would be safe. But the calculus in Israel has changed. And whereas before they tolerate civilian deaths, there's a long piece out, a description of how it's changed. Whereas they tolerate sort of deaths of collateral in a family. Now it is clear that when it came

to Jabalia camp, they could tolerate two to 300 collateral deaths in the hope of killing one Hamas target. And so, I mean, what is going to be a safe zone if they suspect there's one Hamas, if they get it right, actually in that area. I mean, you know, then it will be a 2,000-ton bomb will be dropped on it. So, I mean, I don't think it's possible, even if they desired it and Israel desired it. I don't think it's going to happen at all. Sadly, there's nothing safe about Gaza. It is a disaster. Alistair Crook, thank you very much.

Thanks for taking time from your trip to Moscow to speak with us. I know you're with a lot of important people and mutual friends, and they're going to enjoy picking your brain as much as I do every Monday morning, as much as our viewers and listeners enjoy it as well. Thank you very much, my dear friend. Thanks a lot. Bye. Of course. Bye-bye. Bye for now.

More as we get it. Ray McGovern at 2 this afternoon. Larry Johnson at 3 this afternoon, Eastern, also from Moscow. And much more coming up as the week progresses. We're up to 244,000 subscriptions. Our goal, of course, is 250,000 by Christmas, which is three weeks from today. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. I'm out.