Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Will There Be a Trump Foreign Policy?

Episode Date: November 11, 2024

Alastair Crooke: Will There Be a Trump Foreign Policy?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, November 11th, 2024. Alistair Crook joins us now. Alistair, it's a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you for joining us. We have not spoken since Donald Trump's landslide victory in the presidential election here in the United States. I'm not going to ask you to analyze why it happened, but of course, I do want to talk to you about the foreign policy implications. Are you able to get your finger on the pulse of the European elites, the EU and the NATO folks, and what their reaction has been or likely will be to Trump's triumphant victory?

They're really knocked for six. And there's a great deal of gloom and desperation apparent to the extent that even some people, not a majority, but some Europeans were even suggesting that they should be the sort of Biden government in exile in Brussels. They would stand and represent globalist liberalism in lieu of America for the future. Of course, it just signals how desperate and how ridiculous it has become.

But as we speak, we have Starmer, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, and Macron, the President of France, plotting together how they can try and keep Ukraine going right through to Trump's arrival. So they're already sort of trying to work against it from Europe. But the reality is the Da'at situation, not only in France, but in Germany too. And it's only getting worse. Now the German government has effectively dissolved itself and called for elections.

We don't know quite when the elections will take place, but the coalition has collapsed. And what did they collapse on? Because they were cutting money for schools, money for daycare, money for the German trains to send it to Ukraine. And the coalition wouldn't stand for it. And I'm quite sure the people wouldn't stand for it. I mean, we're literally cutting the social, if you like,

the funds that were set aside for schools and daycare and things like that to send more money to Ukraine to keep it going as a sort of gesture against Trump. That's really all I could say about Europe. Futile gestures. Futile, wasteful gestures. That's really crazy. I don't want to go down a rabbit hole, but I have to ask you this. Did the Germans suffer less than comfortable winters because of Biden's destruction? I know this is four years ago or three years ago, two years ago, because of Biden's destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline. Well, yes. And at the moment, it's getting worse because, as you know, Merkel gave up nuclear power and she turned towards the Greens

and instigated for wind power and solar power. And they've had a long period now of fog in Germany. And they're having to go back to restarting coal power stations, powered by very dirty brown coal, in order to just get through the winter. But it's going to be a hard winter. But, I mean, more than that, Germany is really a warning for the United States, a warning sign. I don't mean in cutting off, it's not the energy side of it.

But all this period, Europe, like America, has pursued this sort of lax fiscal policy of just increasingly more and more government expenditures, unrestrained government expenditures, which are translated into debt instruments. And those debt instruments are sold to the central bank, which prints the money for this. And we've been doing this. And what it's ended up is the calcification of the German industry. It's not just that it's uncompetitive because there isn't cheap fuel anymore, but it's uncompetitive because it's just become use-dependent on easy money for years, for two decades or more.

And then it sort of seizes up and there's no innovation. It's a very sort of ossified environment. So the German car industry is in real crisis it Volkswagen is laying off large sums in closing factories in Germany Because they haven't innovated their sort of generations behind what the Chinese produce whether it's electric or gasoline-fueled engines. They're behind. So this is the innovation of the European economy because of this excessive fiscal laxity.

And now they've run into the problems of the debt ceiling. Like in France, now they have a debt problem. People are not prepared to, the holders of debt are not prepared to go on seeing deficits like this. And this is where it came from. They have a running up against debt in Germany. I have a friend and neighbor who owns the local Mercedes dealership a couple of miles from my home. And Mercedes-Benz, the mother company, ordered him and all dealers in New Jersey to install electric power charging stations. They cost $450,000 to install. I ran into him the other day and I said,

how's that charging station going? And he goes, I wouldn't know. No one uses it. No one uses it. It was $450,000 down a rat hole as far as we're concerned. Getting to Ukraine, I don't usually run clips with you, but I want you to see this. This is Jake Sullivan yesterday, almost as if Donald Trump did not win the election, saying all they're going to do to get funding to Ukraine. Chris, cut number two. President Biden made clear when President Zelensky was here in Washington a couple of months ago that we would spend all of the resources that were provided to us by the Congress on time and in full, meaning that by January 20th,

we will have sent the full amount of resources and aid to Ukraine, the Congress has authorized. And of course, President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe. And ultimately, as the Japanese prime minister said, if we walk away from Ukraine in Europe, the question about America's commitment to our allies in Asia will grow. He has blinders on, does he not? If he thinks that all the money they can ship to Ukraine and all the equipment they can send there can possibly alter the now

inevitable outcome. Absolutely, because, you know, the whole basis of this policy was when Brzezinski set out back in the 70s, early in his book, The Grand Chessboard. And he said very clearly, look, you know, Russia will never be able to succeed against the combined weight of NATO. We come together with NATO and Russia will be forced to submit. And it hasn't. And it's persevered. And if anyone is submitting, it's going to be NATO. They're going to have to recognize this reality. And Ukraine is going to have to recognize that Putin is not just going to sit down and have a chat, an amicable chat with Trump and say, OK, let's freeze the conflict. Absolutely not. He will say, we are pursuing our

objectives and we will pursue them. The conflict is continuing. There's not going to be a ceasefire. They will move up to the Dnieper. Maybe he'll stop at the Dnieper and said, do you want to have a serious conversation now to the United States? If not, then he'll go to Odessa and he'll say, okay, let's sit down and talk now. They cannot understand that the, if you like, the authorities with Russia, that the, if you like, the edge, the military edge, the political edge, now lies with Russia. Russia will be able to set the tone. Now, there is talk saying, well, oh, if Putin doesn't do that, they'll ramp up pressure on Russia through providing more weapons and money to Ukraine. We all know that's nonsense. There's nothing that America can provide

that would change the course of this war. Putin knows that. He's in the commanding position, and he will be very polite. By the way, all the talk that you hear, there's so much disruptive stories about what Trump will do or not do. We had this long story about him having a telephone conversation with Putin over the weekend. It was in the Washington Post and elsewhere and you know according to people familiar with the call they said you know Trump said this please do not escalate and can you bring the war to an end? Never happened. Ask Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson. There was no call.

That is really, I'm happy to hear that, Alistair, from the perspective of peace and rationality. But boy, that is absolutely not what the American press is reporting. The American press is reporting that Donald Trump told Putin, don't you dare escalate. Don't you dare go any farther than you've gone already. Putin wouldn't accept that. And I don't think Trump was foolish enough to say something like that. He wasn't. It didn't happen. And and and peskov who's the kremlin spokesperson said there hasn't been a call with trump uh since i think it was february 20. there's been no recent calls

there's been no calls at all during this this period it's not true. And I think we should treat the stories about how all these calls with Netanyahu. I don't know whether what was the content, if they happened, I can't tell you authoritatively, but I'm very suspicious because the relationship, Netanyahu is saying, I've had three calls and Trump is online with me about what needs to be done in the region. He supports my vision.

We see eye to eye on this nonsense. Trump doesn't trust Netanyahu. They've fallen out long ago. He fell out first of all when Netanyahu withdrew from the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, that strategic mistake of assassinating Qasem Soleimani. And it was supposed to be joint with Netanyahu. And at the last minute, Netanyahu pulled out and left it to Trump to take the responsibility. And then at the end of that period, what really riled Trump was that Netanyahu rushed

to congratulate Biden in 20. And even before the college, you know, the Electoral College come to its final result. So he was he's it's not a friendly relationship. Well, here's who is presenting. Here's Netanyahu. This is earlier today, November 11th, telling another lie. Just about what you said. Chris, cut number eight. In the last few days, I have talked three times with President-elect Donald Trump.

These were good and very important conversations designed to strengthen the covenant made between Israel and the allied countries. We see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its forms and the danger it poses. Is this remotely believable? I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think we know yet what Trump's policy is going to be or who he's going to appoint. I think there's every reason to believe that actually most of this is disruption, disruption from other sides, from the neocons and everyone else who want to try and put their people in the transition. I'm not even sure that understand it, the transition system, is it's partly made up with the outgoing, if you like, administration and the incoming administration elect. But Trump isn't playing game. He won't go to the general services. He won't make an agreement. He's running his transition from Mar-a-Lago. Correct. Very good move, in my view.

His people have actually refused to sign the documents triggering the millions in the budget to fund the transition, but requiring certain behavior by his people, triggering their access to classified materials. He's basically saying, forget about it. I know what I'm doing. I've done this. I've done this before. They did leak. Well, this was not a leak.

This was Trump's actual tweet over the weekend that Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo would have no place in his administration. And then on the heels of that, the transition team leaked that the president-elect has offered the ambassadorship to the United Nations to Elise Stefanik. If there's any neocon more repugnant than Mike Pompeo, it is she. At least Pompeo had foreign policy experience. She has none. You know, I think we just have to wait. You know, I don't make any calculations, but I just give this simple calculation that if things stay the same

as they have been in the last decades, this period, this neocon, Pax Americana period, if it stays the same, then everything is going to get worse, and it's going to get worse very quickly. It will start with Iran, and then it will move to the relationship with Russia. Because I indicated, you know, the mood in Moscow is very clear. The mood is we continue with this special operation. The objectives in it remain unchanged. We're going to do that. We will continue. We are making big progress. It's accelerating. They'll be up to the NEPA very shortly in the next weeks. And then they may stop and say, do you want to talk? If not,

they will go on. And what is America going to do about it? And as I say, America is facing, I mean, realistically, if it doesn't take a grip on foreign policy, is going to be facing wars on multiple fronts, which everyone understands in the present economic circumstances is just not tenable. America, just like France, slower because it's got a reserve currency. But this long period of excessive government expenditure has produced a reaction. And that reaction is that America is no longer capable of manufacturing weapons. It's lost its manufacturing capacity. It's become anemic. even technically. The MOD cannot produce technically more advanced equipment than that that is being produced by Russia. Well, same thing is true with Iran.

In Iran, we are at a very crucial point because there's a lot of pressure from the neocons who say, must go back to squeezing Iran, we must go back to, if you like, weakening Iran in the region to undermine its malign influence with activists. This is very dangerous and it's very similar. What we're hearing is just the same. Do you remember, you know, the sort of what I call the Ben Hodges syndrome? Oh, you know, Russia's on its knees. Russia is, you know, its army is poorly trained. They don't have supplies. They haven't got ammunition.

They'll run out of shells in weeks. It'll all collapse very soon, and there's nothing there. And we just have to persevere, putting more weapons into the Ukrainian army to survive. This is the same narrative, same story. Iran is weak. Iran has had its air defenses destroyed. It's had its missile capability damaged. It's naked, lying naked. Israel and America can just go in, fly where they want. It's absolutely as untrue as the narrative about Russia and the Russian army.

Quite untrue. Here is the $64,000 question for you this morning. If Trump intends to rid the foreign policy establishment of neocons and radically alter the way America treats allies, enemies, and neutrals. How difficult will it be for him to do that? Very difficult, because Israel is such an important component in American politics and because of Trump's particular attachment to it. Because really, you know, the question with Iran is the same thing that we've been talking about, about Russia. For really, since the embassy siege all those years ago, everything has been about besieging Iran, weakening Iran, sanctioning Iran, threatening to bomb Iran.

Not surprisingly, like Russia, they have developed their own deterrence, their own military capabilities. And those are what they have. And they, like the Russian army, have a preponderance. They have real deterrence. After all this time since the, if you like, the Israeli attack on Iran, I can tell you the evidence shows that there was almost no effect on their air defense system. They have three air defense systems, not just one, in Tehran. There was no damage. The talk about the mixers being bombed and damaged, absolutely untrue. The mixers were removed from Sahara and from Parchin and placed in the deep mountain tunnels, the tunnels

during Qatami's time, years ago. They're not there. There's nothing out there that is sensitive and vulnerable and nothing was attacked like that. It is the same story that we had. Oh, Russia's about to collapse. It's on its knees. Well, Iran has real deterrence and what we are going to have to see, because there's no possibility of a real dialogue with Iran unless the United States and Europe, Western Europe, acknowledges that, if you like, Iran as a serious state that has its own deterrence, and that that deterrence is real and should be, and they need to treat Iran with respect and as a sovereign state, because it's not threatening the United States. It is threatening people who attack and kill Palestinians, but it's not threatening the United States. And of course,

what's going on is trying to promote the idea that Israel's interests are identical with America's interests. And it was J.D. Vance, incidentally, who said, well, we ought to be careful about that because, you know, sometimes they may coincide, but sometimes they may not coincide and sometimes they may run counter to American interests and needs. And this is a very clear case of that. Iran has the ability, and I think this is what, I mean, we were lying there naked. Yes. They have to. They have to. Now, Iran will show the world it has deterrence, just like Russia had to show, if you like, Washington, that it had military capabilities that were not to be sneered at and dismissed.

So Iran is going to have to do the same. So we should expect that there will be an attack, and it will be a painful one on Israel until people get the message that Iran has real deterrence. And then there's something to negotiate, some basis to negotiate on the ability of, if you like, esteem of equal positions, not one threatening, just saying, if you do this, we'll bomb you back to the Stone Age or something.

It has to be done on a basis of mutual esteem and a discussion. And I put this last just not terribly serious, but can you imagine what Trump would give for a photo opera with him with the Supreme Leader in Iran. I mean, I'm sure he would love that. It's possible. Why not? Yes, I'm sure he would. But you know, the deep state is relentless. Over the weekend, the Justice Department announced an indictment of three Iranians for plotting to assassinate Donald Trump. None of the three is in the United States. The whole thing is a farce. How are they going to prove their case? And they won't even say what the evidence was. This is just one of those things that they do from time to time, probably to get into Trump's head that the Iran government is evil and therefore he must do whatever Bibi wants. Of course, of course.

I mean, it's just the FBI, you know, some poor, you know, rather deranged person that they tackle and they say, they pretend they're speaking on behalf of the IRGC. And we've got a special mission for you to assassinate Trump. I mean, we know that tactic of the FBI. You know it as well as I do. So, I mean, it's just nonsense to try and set up this idea. What I think is really worrying and what tells you what's coming next is Netanyahu's appointed a man called Yehiel Leiter as to be the next Israeli ambassador to the US. Well, who is he? Well, he is an arch-settler that believes in the annexation of West Bank and Gaza and all the Palestinian territories.

He's been a settler. He is an extreme settler in the sense that originally he belonged to an organization that was on the American terrorist list for assassination. He left it before it was put on the terrorist list. And then he's been a settler living in Hebron, which is the most radical sort of Brooklyn-filled settlement in Israel. He lost his son about a year ago in Gaza and then set up an organization which celebrates that there should be no deal with Hamas and no deal with the Palestinians and that the territories must come back. So the message from this is clear. Netanyahu is looking for Washington and for Trump. He believes Trump will go along with his annexation plans of the West Bank and Gaza. And he's maneuvering towards that.

And he may give a sort of ceasefire in Gaza or something on the understanding that Trump will join Israel in a massive attack against Iran. That is the way he's going. I don't think Trump will fall for this. I don't think, I mean, he's got such a different team with serious people in it. He's got even a sort of, his son-in-law, who is half Lebanese, who's Lebanese, And that is Massad Boulos, whose son is married to Tiffany, Trump's second daughter, if you like, electorate towards Trump.

And he comes from Lebanon, and I think this is different. Jared Kushner is out of it, but this man is important, and his son Michael is very important, has worked very hard, along with others, along with Donald Trump Jr., who we have ignored in many ways. But who knows? I just think we have to ignore all this disruptive story about telephone calls with Putin, that Netanyahu has, you know, had a call and announced that Trump is with him entirely on his aspirations and his objectives for Israel.

And then look at what's really happening. Appointing a very arch, he's very intelligent, he writes well, but he is, I mean, as extreme as Ben-Gavir in what he thinks about the Palestinians. That's the new ambassador. The message is very clear. Is this an interest of the United States? No, because if we go down this route any further, the bombing of Lebanon, the bombing of Gaza, the killing of civilians in order to put pressure, it's going to work out badly for Trump and his team.

It's going to end up in a regional war. And who knows what will happen with Russia and others if it extends to, if Iran comes into the war or is than in the previous attack. And how, if you like, Washington responds to that. It will still be, of course, Biden at this time, formally in the seat. But, you know, Trump has not gone uneasy. It's not going to go smoothly.

What does he do i don't think i i think there's i i'm sure he has been um affected by these pictures coming out of gaza and west bank of the children being killed and in lebanon where they are just every time people move um out to um move out from one area to another. The displaced people are deliberately being bombed and killed. I mean, every day there are bombings in Lebanon to kill the people that are displaced. He's trying to blackmail the Shi'i, either into leaving or abandoning Hezbollah. But it's not going to work because the Shia constitute,

according to the Pew organization in the US, between 45 and 50% of the population in Lebanon. You can't just kill half the population. I know that's what's been happening in Gaza to try and get your ends. But going down this road, I'm just saying, the whole thing is going to explode if we, you know, unless someone sensible can say, you know, we cannot go on saying to Iran, look, we can, you've either got to submit completely

or we'll bomb you back to the Stone Age Age because the United States and Israel doesn't have that capacity any more than it had the capacity, if you like, to destroy the Russian army, as Brzezinski suggested at that time. you're actually going to have to try and sort of deal with them on equal terms, give them some respect, and then maybe you can do a deal that would be possible. And maybe even you'll have Trump one day standing there next to the Supreme Leader shaking his hand and having come to some sort of understanding, but not on the basis of genocide and killing Lebanese and increasingly Syrians, as well as Gazans and West Bank. I don't think that's possible. As we finish, two things. One, I know you think about this, and that is Donald Trump's $100 million debt to Mrs. Miriam Adelson. The other is that the Trump transition team just announced the selection of Representative Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations. We'll see how many more dominoes fall.

Alistair, thank you very much, my dear friend. Always a pleasure. Always so informative. We'll look forward to seeing you next week. Thank you so much. Of course. All the best to you, my dear friend. Have a great week. Coming up at 10 this morning, Ray McGovern at 11, Larry Johnson. At four this afternoon, Scott Ritter. And at five this afternoon, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.