Judging Freedom - Alastair Crooke: Will Zionism Self-Destruct?

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

Alastair Crooke: Will Zionism Self-Destruct?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, April 22nd, 2024. Alistair Crook joins us now. Alistair, a pleasure as always, my friend. What do you think was the motivation behind the Israeli destruction of the consulate in, of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, if not to start a war and bring the U.S. in? I think it was exactly that. It's being portrayed in Israel and in the Western press as this was a mistake, another mistake of intelligence. I don't think so.

Netanyahu, for the last 25 years, has been seeking ways to bring the United States into a military confrontation with Iran, if not just to destroy its nuclear program, which, as I've said before, is impossible because it's buried deep under a mountain and you can't destroy it. Ehud Barak, the previous prime minister, made this point very clear two years ago in a Time magazine article when he said, look, you know, it's not available to military action. So, look, Iran is Minister Netanyahu, Iran does not have nuclear weapons capable of delivery to an adversary? by the intelligence services of the United States collectively and clearly with complete confidence and complete, if you like, confidence in the sources that there is no nuclear program. In other words, Iran is a nuclear threshold state, but not a nuclear weapon state. Important distinction. What do they do with their nuclear material? Do they use it to produce energy, domestic energy?

Yeah, that was the long-term plan from the outset, was to have a nuclear program that would power their industrial sector and then sell the oil and gas for income, for investment and for the development of the economy. So rather than just using up the oil and gas that they had, they would have a nuclear program for their industry and then sell the oil and gas. That was the plan and still is the plan. And they use a lot of the highly enriched uranium for things like medical research. Iran is a leader in medical research and they use those isotopes for,

they have a research reactor which is entirely devoted to medical purposes where they are leaders. Israel has often portrayed itself as a country that it wants everyone to fear. still the state of Israel's self-perception, or did the Iranian response, widely downplayed in the West, but apparently successful from the Iranian standpoint, the Iranian response to the destruction against Israel, to the Israeli destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, did it burst that bubble that everybody should fear the Israelis? Yes, but it went even further than that.

It was something much more profound that took place in their response. It did burst their deterrence projection around the world, and the Israelis are aware of it. But you have to, let me just explain a little bit of the background so your audience can understand it. If you go back even to the end of the last century, Persia under the Shah was the major power in the region. And the Sunni Arab states, the Gulf states, were sort of small Bedouin statelets,

emirates and monarchies of very little significance. Everything Iran dealt with the Persia, Persia was the power. Then we had this whole period of attrition of Iran. What hurt them and bruised them most was what they call the imposed war. That was the Iran-Iraq war that was so damaging. I think there were commentators in the West who said it was ideal because we've got, you know, a Muslim fighting Muslim in the Middle East, and that's just how we like it. But it left Iran bruised, and they said effectively, never again will we be so vulnerable. Never again.

And then we had in 2006, and I mentioned it in this paper, in 2006, there was an attempt to change the whole paradigm of the state, and that Sunni Islam, led by Saudi Arabia, would become the prime power in the region over Iran. And Iran would be sanctioned, treated, undercut by the United States and by Islamist forces which the Sunni powers would use, if you like, to confront Iran. And the Iranians bided their time over those years with what they call strategic patience. And during that time, they evolved a new deterrence system, a new deterrence philosophy. And this is what you saw the other day on, I think, the 13th, on the 1st of April, when Iran said, we're ready now. In other words, this program, this military program,

this program of a new type of war, was ready and they were confident in it. And they moved from a strategic patience to active deterrence. We are ready now, they were saying. And they have the missiles, they have the weapons, and they have the doctrine. And they worked on that doctrine. And this is what you saw in that

missile attack on Israel it's just one part of it the other part is the careful prepared work that was done with other Shi movements with other resistance movements uh throughout the region, not only she, Hamas is a Sunni movement, but with all of these movements to prepare them and to tell them the fundamentals of the new type of war using cheap drones, cheap cruise missiles, using them but with smart latest technology to make them precision weapons. And because of the dominance and the airfield that the West has, not air power, the ability to crush anything, everything was buried.

Everything was buried 70 meters down, whether it's Gaza, whether it's Lebanon, whether it's Iran, whether it is the Houthis, all have followed this pattern. And then it's a slow attrition that is been facilitated by suddenly the availability of cheap electronics, cheap components for building drones and cruise missiles, but also it had a strategist behind it. The strategist who understood you have to arrange this in a good effective matrix so that this worked. And he also had the doctrine of controlling, if you like, the intensity of wars and also the escalatory ladder so that you didn't go up

too quickly, you didn't go to full war straight ahead. And so what we saw in the so-called Iran attack on Israel was not an assault at all. It was a message. And it says, we're ready now. And we can get through even using our older type of missiles. We can get through your defenses and we can strike at your most sensitive air bases, even those that are 30 kilometers from so in other words, the whole paradigm that we saw in 2006, where, if you like, the Gulf states and the friends of Israel had, if you like, primacy in the region, has been turned on its head. period, really the power resides with Iran completely. They have a power and perhaps a greater power than Israel fully understands or is able to cope with. So we are back to the late 19th century power structure. It is a complete strategic overturning of the old order where the Sunni world was ranged in support of the Israel and the United States against Iran and now Iran has a few like its time has come we are now ready and it is ready to show that it is quite happy to counteract any attacks on it from Israel or from the United

States, and that it has the means to do so, and it has the strategy to support it. Has Netanyahu, with his war in Gaza, his war in the West Bank, and now this attack on the Iranian consulate, bitten off more than he can chew. This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. You know when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself? Talking to someone who understands can really help. But who is that person?

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He's made a very serious mistake because he assumed that Gaza would be easily resolved. It would just take a week or two, and they would bomb Hamas and destroy them. They keep claiming. They keep claiming now that they've destroyed something like 18 out of 24 battalions that Hamas has, and there are only now four left in Rafah. You've probably heard such claims. But all of that came from the Lavender

project on this AI project, whereby they were targeting people on the surface, according to their degree of closeness to Hamas from one to 100. And those that they were doing this, I mean, it was how do you tell who's Hamas and who's far from Hamas or near to Hamas? It was impossible. And the machine went crazy and produced all these targets. But these were on the surface. And as I've said time again, Iran has all of its strategic and military structure buried underground so that the American and NATO omniscient surveillance, reconnaissance plane, radar planes up above in the skies, facial recognition ability, all these things are rendered useless because everything is underground

and only brought up at the moment it is going to be put into use. So it's hidden from that. Hamas is hidden from Israel. The war is hidden from Israel. And what they do on the surface, driving around with tanks and knocking down houses, I mean, is beside the point. And it hasn't worked. And Hamas has had some small losses, but it's intact, and it has the ability to continue. It is a long-term project, Hamas is. I can tell you that with some confidence that it was conceived from the beginning to be a long-term project. And every day, Israel is getting more and more frustrated by it they want to go into rafa well they think that this is going to put rush pressure on hamas well let me say and

i say that with again i feel some confidence um hamas's reply to that is probably you're welcome come because they are prepared and waiting for it so mistake of because it's a a mistake conceptual mistake if you like still stuck in the old ideas of how to wage a war against Iran or against Hamas or Hezbollah by massive use of firepower and airpower. And in fact, the whole war has gone underground and has gone into a different state, using missiles and using drones to disguise those missiles and to move to a very sophisticated offensive capability that can cause great damage to Israel. I mean, the missiles of Iran and of Hezbollah can cover the whole of Israel and its strategic infrastructure.

Here's, I would imagine you know him, John Sowers, the former head of MI6, over the weekend, basically saying on British television, or I think it might have been CNN, Israel should just leave Gaza and concentrate on Iran and call it a day. Cut number nine. His general is saying that you have to finish the job in Gaza. I'm not so sure about that, actually. I think Israel succeeded in reducing Gaza to rubble. Is that a success? Well, exactly. That's not exactly a success. They haven't secured the release of the remaining hostages who are still alive. They haven't killed the Hamas commanders.

They've caused an enormous amount of humanitarian suffering. Frankly, I think from the Israeli point of view, they can change the subject. They can switch to Iran and Hezbollah and just call it a day in Gaza. I think that is conceivable. But the alternative, Christiane, is if the Israelis do go back in a big way into Rafah to take on the

last of the Hamas battalions. Yes, there's a security logic to it, but will they actually achieve any more than they've achieved already? What do you think? Well, he assumes that an attack on Iran or on Lebanon is going to produce the victory. I mean, he doesn't spell it out. But General Brick, who was advising Netanyahu from the outset, has said very clearly he's a slightly he's a senior major general uh in the israeli army much respected netanyahu consults him and he's come out in these last days and said you know wake up israel you are a lot you've lost the war not losing you've lost this war in gaza in lebanon to do with the return of the people to the north and even in the West Bank. And he's saying, come on, you have to really understand it. Now, going to what Sawyer said about an attack on

Iran, let's just have a look. I mean, this partly is my speculation. What happened with this sort of feeble, non, if you like, response, supposedly from Israel? Well, what it consisted of in this, and you can check quite easily in those photographs to support it, what we saw was a number of quadcopters, you know, these things with four rotors above them, and with a small payload that were seen and shot down over Isfahan. Now, the Iranians say, and I think it's true, they didn't have the range, and there's no evidence that they came from Israel. So what's going on? I mean, if that's so, what's happening? I suspect that the United States was so anxious to limit, if you like, the response from Israel. They said, look, we'll do this, okay? We'll do it. And they activated the MEK, most likely likely i don't know for sure but the

mek they have 3 000 of them under training in albania the cia have they control these people they told them fly them some quadcopters over isfahan and they immediately announced and it was the israeli response now we do know that there's some there were two ballistic missiles at least fired at iran they were um they uh what have they caused the sparrow um uh i think they're called sparrow missiles um and they're mostly used for target practice by the israelis um they're not normally an offensive weapon they're mostly used for target practice by the Israelis. They're not normally an offensive weapon. They're fired from an aircraft and they have a booster and two of the boosters have been found in Iraq in different places, but both of them at least 100 kilometers from the Iranian frontier,

the booster element to it. Now, the warheads which would have detached are very unlikely. They're not warheads with boosters on them. They just are free flying. And it's very unlikely they would have even reached Iran from 100 kilometers if they were detached from that. So was that who fired those? Was that Israel? Was it Israel that used,

because Israel also has groups in Iran, if you like, who they can activate, did they fire these these four quad helicopters? But the bottom line is nothing. It was nothing. It was nothing at all. No damage, tiny damage to one airfield near Isfahan, where a radar of an S-300 seems to be damaged by it, but nothing of any sort. And the United States has been very quick to say, no, no, it's Israel. This is done, finished. We're all over with this. It's all done and complete. Forget it. Let's move on. Let's move on to Ukraine or whatever else you want to move on. Can I just say the last piece, just very quickly? Why would they be saying that? I think they're saying that because Ukraine is the most important issue for the United States, well, at least for the administration at this moment.

And what happened in this last period with the, if you like, the defense of Israel, they used the Israelis now. The Israeli papers are saying it was not one, it was two to three billion dollars worth of air defense was expended. There was something like 150 aircraft aloft on that day of the attack. And I think that the United States administration is becoming very worried that, you know, if this goes on, it's going to consume all the Arrow missiles, all the Patriot missiles in store in the United States, and there'll be nothing to send to the Ukraine. I think there's a great shortage. You know, I know all of your

guests who are military experts have outlined, it takes a long time in the United States to produce one of these Patriot missiles, let alone expenditure like they were doing on that day. So I think they wanted it cut, because otherwise, what are they going to give Ukraine when the bill that goes through and it's signed, that's all about air defenses. That's what they want. And I don't think that the United States has the capacity to provide the air defenses that a full-scale Israeli attack on Iran would require. And I don't think Israel can do it without the United States expending all of those air defense missiles leaving the cupboard bare when it comes to Ukraine here is a secretary of state Blinken

predictably denying uh that the U.S was uh involved in this sort of kabuki theater-like Israeli response to the Iranian penetration. Cut number, blinkin' nine. First, on the Israel strikes in Iran, was the U.S. and India alerted in advance? How far ahead of time, and did it raise any objections when it was? On the first question, the reports that you've seen, I'm not going to speak to that, except to say that the United States has not been involved in any offensive operations. What we're focused on, what the G7 is focused on, and again, it's reflected in our statement and in our conversation, is our work to de-escalate tensions.

Again, I'm not going to speak to anything other than to say we're not involved in any offensive operation. It's hard to believe him, Alistair. I don't know. I mean, I'm not a psychiatrist, but he just doesn't come across as being very, very credible. I think he was gating around, you know, this is called deniability. If the CIA set up its people in Iran, in the MEK, the Mujahideen al-Qaq, to do the, which is easy.

I mean, they have those people. We know they're there to fly a few helicopter drones over Isfahan and say, this is it. OK, Israel, we're taking over. It's done. There's been a response to Iran. It's not an American response. It was an MEK response. There were a couple of these small missiles that were fired that never even reached Iran.

Let's close this down. And as I say, my feeling is that when they looked at how many missiles were used, the air defenses, American principally, just to be clear, when you see all the time that Israel shot down all of these rockets and these missiles coming from Iran. It's not true. The majority were shot down using American air defence missiles, not Israeli, but the Israelis lost many too in the later stages of it. But the bulk was done, as I say, something like 150 aircraft, a major operation. And, you know, I think really the cover may not be completely bare in the U.S.

of air defenses to sort of hold ground and to send off to Ukraine. But I'm sure it's taken pretty much of a loss on this process. Aside from giving, transitioning fully to Ukraine, aside from giving President Zelensky a false sense of security, what has been accomplished by the vote in the House of Representatives authorizing $61 billion into Ukraine, where we know $40 billion of it stays right here? Well, I think, you know, I'm an outsider, I'm not going into American politics, but I mean, it seems to have actually triggered a quite serious crisis inside the United States, certainly within the Republican Party. And I think the other thing, really, that is done,

I mean, apart from the fact that it is may sort of keep the war going a little bit. As you know, I'm talking to you from Moscow. And I would say, you know, it's not it wasn't a shock here in Russia. And I think the Russians will think, well, some most of these, if any, these rail weapons come, it won't be very quickly it'll be it will be some months before it the summer perhaps and that the the russians will increase already the high high tempo um of the attacks on ukraine during this period and and there will be a massive increase in the loss of life on ukrainian that's the net result of that will be a massive increase in the loss of life on Ukrainians. That's the net result of that.

There will be more Ukrainians sadly sacrificed for a project that, I mean, can't work, can't succeed. The math just doesn't add up. There are reports this morning, I believe, denied by NATO that a thousand French troops are on the ground. We're not talking about intel people in civilian clothes, but French infantry troops on the ground in Ukraine. What do you know of this or what do you believe of it? There have been French troops on the ground in Ukraine, but mostly they've been what the armed forces, I don't think it's a rather unfair language, but to say they've been through a sheep dip and, you know, they've taken off their French uniforms and they've put on a different uniform and that they're no longer, they're sort of on sabbatical from the French forces

for the period that they're in Ukraine. We know that, and many of them have been killed. They were killed in an attack on a hotel. There are some, I don't think there are any, I mean, nowhere near, I mean, a French general said when Macron first came out with the suggestion of French troops entering Ukraine, and he said there may be 2,000. And the Russians said they're thinking of putting 2,000 troops into Ukraine. And, you know, the military in Russia just said, listen, you'd need 20,000 to even make a dent.

You have for 20,000 would be able to control a 10 kilometer extent of the front line in Ukraine. But 2000 is just window dressing. It's just politics. Do you see either of these conflagrations, Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, exploding into regional wars? And if so, which is the more dangerous of the two hotspots? Both are extremely dangerous at this stage. Very dangerous. But I think, I believe, and I've said this before to you, I don't think Netanyahu can leave things as they stand. The balance of power, not only, you know, that you keep seeing in the some of the Western press, you know, that Israel and Iran are now sort of equal level players in the region. It's not true. Iran has taken and showed that it has an ability to

overwhelm Israel. And I don't think Netanyahu can leave things as they are, because he has a defeat in Gaza. He has a defeat happening for all those displaced Israelis in Israel. He has an economy that is tanking. He has trouble in the West Bank. And please remember, tonight is Passover. It starts at sundown tonight. And this is the night traditionally in which those that want to build the third temple will make sacrifices in Al-Aqsa Mosque to mark the beginning of the building of the third temple, which in itself implies the demolition of the icon of Islam, Al-Aqsa Mosque. mosque. And that's happening tonight at sundown. I think I don't can't see that the government and Netanyahu and I think the Israeli people, it's not just Netanyahu. I don't think the sort of defeat, complete defeat with Iran actually emerging as in primacy in the region is something that they can tolerate. So I think they will try and contrive some sort of action, bombing of Nantaz or something, even though it achieves nothing.

But to use this as a pretext of saying to Congress, look, we've done this fantastic operation. You know, we destroyed the Iraqi nuclear project. Now we're engaged in destroying the Iranian nuclear project. Come and join us. Help us do it. And there will be people in Europe and America will say, yes, of course, we must. Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. Of course, it's forbidden to have a nuclear weapon by the supreme leader who's issued a fatwa saying never will we have a nuclear bomb. Of course, it's forbidden to have a nuclear weapon by the Supreme Leader, who's issued a fatwa saying, never will we have a nuclear weapon. Alasdair, thank you very much. These are very difficult times, and your analysis is so

astute, so deep, and so extraordinary. Thank you very much for your time, my dear friend. We'll see you next week. Thank you. Thank you very much. Of course. We have a very busy and very exciting day for you today. If you haven't seen our lineup yet, at 10 o'clock this morning, Ray McGovern, at 11 o'clock this morning, Larry Johnson, All Times Eastern, at two o'clock this afternoon, Colonel McGregor. At 3 o'clock this afternoon, Professor Sachs. At 4.30 this afternoon, Scott Ritter. A long and fruitful day.

Judge Napolitano, my apologies for Chris in the background. We had some visitors out front that neither of us expected. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.