Judging Freedom - Betting on Technology over Fossil Energy - Alastair Crooke fmr British diplomat

Episode Date: May 17, 2023

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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, May 17th, 2023. It's about 11.45 in the morning here on the East Coast of the United States, 5.45 in the evening in Italy, from where our guest Alistair Crook happily joins us. Alistair, always a pleasure. Thank you for coming back onto the show. Pleasure. Pleasure is mine. Of course. You recently wrote a fascinating piece. I love your pieces because they require you to think and they're always big picture. And they are what journalists call evergreens. They're always green. They're always relevant because they address eternal truths as well as contemporary trends. What headwinds is the West now facing, either because of this war in Ukraine or the war in Ukraine is merely one of the symptoms of the headwinds?

Well, in fact, the turn was not just about Ukraine. We had favorable tailwinds for many, many years, for a couple of decades. Zero interest rates, zero inflation was a fantastic boom. But that came from cheap manufacturers coming in from China, which kept inflation down, and cheap energy coming in from Russia, which kept our industry competitive. Those went, first of all, with China decoupling from China, tariffs on China. And then it was an election by the European Union to forego Russian energy. I mean, they had the financial sanctions, but then they decided that they needed

to do more. So they decided that they would not take any Russian energy. Now they're even thinking about putting new blocks for gas, Russian gas, coming into Europe. They're considering that for the 11th or 12th package of sanctions on Russia. Well, you know, the Europeans have already suffered terribly because of the American destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline. But are you saying that, for example, the Germans themselves are restricting their own importation of Russian natural gas? Wouldn't that be insane? Why are they doing that?

To please Joe Biden? You know, there's a double element. I mean, one part of it is that arises from the, you know, elected. I mean, Europe didn't have to do it, but it cut itself off from cheap energy from Russia. And because they wanted to move to tech, to green tech, to tech solutions instead of energy. And this is a big gamble that Europe is taking. They're going to say that we're going to give up on our Russian gas and oil, and instead of which we're going to rely on tech to move to it.

So that's the other part of this exercise, which is the net zero. If you like, the compulsion by the Greens, particularly led by the green party in germany but also by the commission in europe to move away from fossil fuels now the combination of those two things is going to be lethal for the european economy the first part is because high energy prices are making the economy totally economic, uncompetitive. But the second thing is, like America, all our infrastructure, all modern countries, all modern communities have an infrastructure

which is based on fossil fuels, on fossil fuel energy. And it's efficient. And fossil fuel energy is efficient too. So if you try and substitute green windmills, if you like, other sorts of tech energy, they don't produce energy as such, and they're very much less efficient. So the efficiency goes down,

the dysfunctionality increases, and of course, the productivity, it's a counterproductive thing. so these are really big headwinds that we'll have to and then it's all got to be financed what do we do we just scrap our efficient infrastructure that is fossil based all right as as i hear you if you're talking about efficiency if you want the the economy that Germany had a year or two ago, you'd be back buying inexpensive Chinese goods and consuming inexpensive Russian energy sources. So these decisions to eschew Chinese goods and to decline Russian energy sources. These are not economic decisions. These must be political decisions as the German center of power is tugged to the left

by the Greens. Do I have this right? Yeah, I wouldn't even say political. It's ideological because, I mean, when you talk about politics, you imply a certain rationality to it. There's no rationality in this. It's just a great big gamble, a big risk and a gamble with the lives of Europeans. How have President Biden's sanctions and asset seizures exacerbated this, remembering, as I know you do, that Congress didn't enact any of this. Many Congresses ago gave, I don't even know which president it was, it was post-World War II, the authority to impose these type of sanctions and asset seizures, but this Congress didn't vote to do it to these people. President Biden has done it on its own. Hasn't

this made things significantly worse in Europe? Hasn't this turned tailwinds or helped to turn tailwinds into headwinds? It absolutely has. And it's very, I mean, it's paradoxical because two very establishment major media outlets in the UK, which are often used for messaging purposes, the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator, both came out last week and said sanctions on Russia have failed. They are a joke and they have completely. Russia was supposed to have disappeared by now and it's completely failed. But still at the same time, Europeans are sitting down this week

discussing a new round of sanctions and whether to put more taxes on any, for example, paradoxically, on the pipeline gas going through Ukraine, from which Ukraine earns an income from Russia and which Russia pays. You almost can't make this up. Let me go back a few steps. Aren't the Europeans sick and tired of American sanctions and the harm it has caused their economic prosperity? You know, I mean, in many ways, yes. But at the same time, I remember when the Europeans imposed

those financial sanctions on Russia, there was a great sort of rah-rah feeling in Europe. I mean, we're now acting like an empire. We're going to crush Russia. It will implode within a week. So the Europeans really did, you know, fall into this. They've dug themselves a huge hole, and now it's very difficult to get out of it. And then you've got the next stage, which is the net zero, which is separate part of this, which is an ideological project to stop people using their cars and flying so much or eating meat or buying certain goods. And the question is, therefore, is this process we're

going through all about a form of compulsion? Because it's quite clear that net zero is not going to be one of personal choice because it won't work like that. It has to be imposed on everyone uniformly. So are we going into a new form of, if you like, compulsion? And is that what it's really all about, that with an economic system that is imploding they have to resort to compulsion really to try and keep the thing moving and afloat has brussels sapped or sucked the independence the sovereignty of member nations in the EU? Oh yeah, all the time. That's the whole purpose. It's been the process in this last year

has been one of moving from national competency, that is that nations have control over things like buying energy or health issues, taking it all to a transnational level, i.e. to Brussels, where Brussels, there has been the biggest, if you like, power grab that has been done by van der Leyen in this period on behalf of the Commission, taking centralized responsibility for buying energy, centralized responsibility on health issues, centralized responsibility on transport and other issues. You wrote about friction. What is the friction that exists in the engines of Western Europe today? Is it this? Is it the absurd ideological movement away from what worked toward what might please the ideologues?

I mean, in a sense, my point about friction was that whereas we were in an era where you could move money around, people could move around, goods could move around relatively freely. Now, it's not like that at all. It's much harder. The regulatory system is much more oppressive. You have to have permission for this. The list of, if you like, security requirements for supply lines expands and expands. You can't have a Chinese list or you can't have a Russian list.

So there's a lot more friction in the system than there was, if you like, during those glorious frictionless movement. Have the Europeans adopted the Trump imposed and Trump era tariffs that he put on China? I think in a bit of

peek over something President Xi said, not for a sound economic reason, but whatever, he imposed them, they're still there. Did the Europeans impose them as well? Not all of them, but they're under a lot of pressure from the Biden administration. Because as Biden pivots to China, of course, he wants the Europeans to go along with this, just as they did on Russia. So there's a lot of pressure, particularly on things like chips and technological industries. So they've had to ban the export of certain advanced technology from, I think, the Netherlands because of these new regulations.

So the Europeans are trying to keep a little space in order to trade with china but how long they'll be able to do that and under if the pressure grows i don't know i mean obviously that's what's been the main discussions in the in the white house with von der leyen and with all these leaders schultz when when he came and saw Mr. Biden there. You spoke a few minutes ago about the power in Brussels and the extraordinary regulatory reach of the Brussels government. Is there resistance to this? I'm thinking of Hungary and Poland, whether it's a nationalistic resistance or an ideological resistance or a moral resistance, whatever you want to call it.

Is there resistance? And if there is, will the resistance prevail? There's resistance at several levels. I mean, at a popular level, everything is now regulated and will be increasingly more regulated. But big states are pushing back, Poland and Hungary and others of the Visegrad group, these mostly East European countries are pushing back against Brussels. But Brussels seems to accumulate more centralized powers every year. So I don't think it will be, I don't think that this is a war that will be easily won. The prospects are more regulation and more tariffs and more separation into two trading blocks, which are going to trade with each other much less than in the past.

Does Brussels have an army or an FBI or a CIA, whether it's to spy on people or coerce them or arrest them when they don't comply? Not in quite that same way, but they have regulatory organizations, regulatory agencies, and they have quite fearsome fines that they can impose on people for breaking regulations. I mean, you know, things like 50,000 euros for acting, for doing something in a restaurant without permission, formal permission. I mean, not small fines. These are big fines. And so they do.

There is a sort of intelligence system, which is a sort of sharing of intelligence from national intelligence companies. And there is a sort of security apparatus but it's not really an executive one either of them because nation-states are quite reluctant to let Brussels which is not known for its security to to have their secrets and and they all go out of them I mean you know that Brussels is an open door to people who want to to find out what's

going on except there is there is no eu military no no and i don't think there will be i suppose we have to add to uh all of this the elephant in the room which is inflation which is of course only caused by government, free money, higher interest rates, massive debt. People on the street have to be suffering in Europe as much as we are here with the cost of food and gasoline. 35% of Italians are really struggling to make ends meet. 35%, because the inflation is so high. I mean, prices of gasoline are very high. Food is about 20%. In much of Europe, it's very high, and people are finding it. The lines for food banks in London are growing enormously.

So it's there and it's coming, but people just pretend it's not there. The press just doesn't report it. In America, you do. In Europe, we don't. Do you think the West is tired of the war in Ukraine? Yes. Yes. Increase very much so. Ordinary, I'm talking now about ordinary Europeans. I don't think that's true of the elites. I think they are finding themselves, they've dug themselves in a hole, and they thought that they were going to be, if you recall, only a couple of months ago, people were saying, well, with this offensive, you know, the war is going to be over. It'll be, you know, we'll see the offensive come and Russia will collapse and the war will be over.

And so all you've got to do. And so I think even states that were quite skeptical about this sort of assessment went along with it because they thought, OK, we give up all our armories. We give up what we've got in the armories. But then that's the end of it. It's finished because, you know, the offensive will take place this summer, war will be over, and now the narrative has switched completely and the narrative is saying, no, that's not good enough because, you know, this offensive is not going to be definitive. Now we have to go in for a long range of building supply lines, building munitions, industrial capacity. We have to go turn our economies into war economies in order to fight Russia in the long run.

Whether Europe will go down that, I don't know. the elites in Western Europe actually think, contrary to the secret documents released in the U.S. showing the thinking of American senior military commanders, that Ukraine can actually prevail or stop Russia or push Russia out of Eastern Ukraine? Do they actually believe that? I think some believe it. I mean, I think that's at the political level, people believe that. I mean, the political leaders who really have no understanding of, you know, conflict or war, I mean, really don't. You know, they keep being told by, you know, people like Secretary Blinken, that this is going to be the biggest offensive since the Second World War, and it'll be the end of Russia, probably the Russians will panic and run for it, and

there'll be mayhem in Moscow. I mean, many know better, but a lot of the politics, you know, what's so difficult is how much of that is they go along with that because it's politically convenient and politically good for their careers to go along with that? And how many are ready to go and say it? Increasingly, more people are saying it, but it's a career killer to go against the narrative at the moment. End of Korea. All right. So I guess when you're in your second six-year term as the president of France and you're flying back on the French Air Force One from Beijing to Paris, you can be critical of the American rhythm of war. You remember when President Macron said that.

Has anybody else, any other European leader, said anything even remotely close to that? Only the Czech president, who is an ex-NATO general. I mean, he's just come from NATO. you know we really ought to be cautious that you know it doesn't look good we won't you know those it's not clear that um ukraine is going to survive in in this way uh at all um and so i don't know uh i don't know whether uh i don't think other people are saying that very much because everyone is just trying to keep on side. Last subject matter. In your own thoughts, do you think the West can make good on its commitments to Ukraine? President Putin just spent a week going all around Europe. He was in Europe so long, many people thought he was escaping from Ukraine.

He wasn't going to come back. Will this be fruitful? No, I don't think so. I mean, first of all, there's no equipment to give him. I mean, the depositories of Europe are empty. I mean, really are empty. Including NATO's depositories. I'm talking about NATO's, yeah.

There are a whole lot. There is nothing, and there are no new wonder weapons to give him. Now, if you look at what the Europeans said, I mean, again, it was a sort of trying to please people or not. They said, well, look, you know, because he went around saying, can I have sort of 40 or 50 F-16s? And so the European leader said, why don't we open a training program for you?

You can send your pilots and we'll do a little bit of training. Now the planes, I think that's going to be difficult for us. No, I'm not sure that we're going to be able to. So we will train your pilots to fly jets that you don't have and we won't give you. Yes, because France, Britain, Germany, they don't have and we won't give you. Yes, because France, Britain,

Germany, they don't have F-16s anyway and Italy don't have F-16s. Anyway, but I mean they say they're not going to give those jets as things stand. So I think it's a little bit of sort of, you know, trying to sort of inoculate themselves against anger from Washington and from the powers that be, they've sort of wanted to sound. But the question of Zelensky is so important now because, in a way, I think European leaders are getting terrified that supposing Biden either gives up Zelensky, the rumors, you've seen what's happened in the Washington Post, sort of saying that he's,

you know, he's not very reliable. What if they give him up and they do pivot properly to China? Then Europe is left holding this basket case, which is Ukraine Ukraine which will be politically flattened and they're on their own and they will I mean it'll be a hole that they will be digging deeper and deeper for themselves the cost of this I mean as it is the refugee cost is huge three million refugees the cost of that they come to Europe they get Social social security, they get housing, they get education, whatever is necessary as if they were Europe. They get treated as a European Union citizen from the moment they arrive in Europe. At the moment, it's a huge cost. And so all of this will increase. So I think they're very frightened and they're just gambling they hope they hope

you know that somehow or other this offensive so-called which has already petered out and it's gone but nonetheless this will sort of trigger the the process towards a negotiated end on favorable terms for Ukraine I mean they're still in La La Land. There's not going to be favorable terms for Ukraine from Moscow in this process. It'll either have to accept what Russia gives it, or the army will be attrited down to, it'll be just degraded down to entropy, unable to act or do anything. Alistair Crook, no matter what we discuss or how gloomy things look, it's always a pleasure to have your brain and your insight and your personal experience in the ways of European

governments shared with my wonderful viewers. Thank you very much. We'll talk to you again soon, my dear friend. Thank you very much. We'll talk to you again soon, my dear friend. Thank you. Well, if you liked that, like and subscribe and share with a friend. And if you want to hear the other side, the man you all love to hate, Jack Devine, 315 in the afternoon Eastern time today. More as we get it, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.