Judging Freedom - Can Israelis fight guerrilla warfare_ analysis w_ Col. Tony Shaffer

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

300K troops preparing to enter Gaza territory will encounter booby traps and face guerrilla warfare within the intricate network of tunnels, which Hamas relies on as one of their most dangerous strategic advantages in the conflict. Can the Israelis fight guerrilla warfare? analysis with Col. Tony Shaffer #israel #hamas #gaza Sponsored by AMAC:There’s an organization that still backs Obamacare, gun control, and extreme transgender policies that endanger our kids. They claim to be bipartisan, but last year 95 percent of their donations went to Democrats. AARP doesn’t represent the values of all American Seniors.Fortunately, there’s a conservative alternative. AMAC – the Association of Mature American Citizens – proudly champions Americans’ right to free speech, religious liberty, and the Second Amendment. AMAC defends parents’ rights to protect their children—and is fighting to restore America’s election integrity. With more than 2 million members nationwide, AMAC is pro-faith, pro-family, and pro-freedom. Let’s send AARP a strong message that they don’t represent conservative seniors. Join AMAC TODAY at AMAC dot U S forward slash judge.Join AMAC: https://amac.us/judgeSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, October 18th, 2023. Colonel Tony Schaefer joins us now. Tony, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for coming back on the program. Always good to be here, Judge. Thank you. Do we have a better handle today, 10 days later, on the incredible Israeli intelligence community and military asleep at the switch when Hamas waged its attack two Saturdays ago? I think there's three things we've learned regarding what happened.

So basically, there was credible intelligence from the Egyptians, which was ignored. Basically the Egyptians have a very effective intelligence system service. They often know things and keep their nose, they don't look for public acknowledgement of what they know. They stay out of it. But I think they had given the Israelis a heads up which was ignored i think um i don't know if it went to uh netanyahu or not but it was not it was not acted on at the senior level so that's one factor i think that do we know the nature of what they said something's brewing or expect an attack uh on sunday morning that i don't know i don't know how specific the threat was uh one of the things often and i've dealt with leaders on this having to been a guy that has to prognosticate on occasion, one is a date, one is a time. Very rare does the intelligence come down to a date and time,

because obviously there are variables. Even the bad guys don't know sometimes what the date and time is going to be. It's just that something is planned. But at this point, I think there was a credible briefing saying Hamas is planning something big. So that's the one thing. Second factor is there was a decision to not actually enhance the security forces the day of the attack. That is to say on the day after the anniversary of the Yom Kippur wars, they were just kind of like sitting back. There was just no great alert. Normally, like right now, I think you probably remember this. I'm a member of law enforcement in Virginia. I work for Sheriff Dave Decatur in Stafford County as his Homeland Security Advisor.

I see a lot of intel. And I can tell you right now, the ops tempo of concern based on just the volume of stuff coming through indicates that people are leaning forward here in the United States regarding potential copycat attacks. Right. So that concern didn't happen in Israel on the 7th and the 6th and 7th. Okay, so why, both whys, why was Egyptian intelligence ignored or not acted upon or didn't make its way up to the top?

And why no concern? Is it arrogance? Is it, wow, this can't happen here? Is it reliance on AI? Why, Tony? So that's the third part. And the answer is double agent operations. So one of the things Mossad prides itself on is human source intelligence.

What we do, espionage, whatever you want to call it, clandestine operations. So one of the things Mossad prides itself on is human source intelligence, what we do, espionage, whatever you want to call it, clandestine operations, basically snitches, to use the law enforcement term. I think that there were a number of operations that Mossad was running in the Gaza Strip that was feeding them false information. Okay, so Mossad has paid for human intelligence in Gaza and you suggest that those people were double agents. That's correct. They were telling Mossad what Gaza wanted Mossad to hear and it was intentionally to deceive Mossad. Absolutely. So when you combine that with the credible intelligence and you're getting this raw information saying, no, no, no, Hamas, we have no interest. We're focused on economic development.

I think that helped lull the Israeli leadership into a false sense of security, much like we did during World War II and Operation Bodyguard using a project, Operation Garbo, where we were feeding false information to the Germans regarding our intention of date and time of the Normandy invasion. So remember, even on that little metaphor, Judge, we didn't know exactly what date we were going to hit the beaches in Normandy, but we kept the Germans guessing up until the very end, past the very end. So I think that same thing was played against the Israelis by... I want to tap the political side of your brain. How does this forebode for Prime Minister Netanyahu domestically, politically, when the war is over? So I've talked to a number of folks, Israelis, directly on this,

and I've interviewed some folks, and this is a tarnish, a bad stain on Netanyahu's legacy. No matter how you cut it, no matter what the response is now, the fact that the worst attack in the history of the Israelis regarding loss of life, their 9-11 happened on Netanyahu's watch is irrevocable. It happened. And nobody that I've spoken to believes that on the uptake of trying to recover from that and do the logical actions, will he recover his legacy? Netanyahu is the longest serving prime minister in history of the Israeli nation, 16 years total. He was reelected, I think it was November, December of last year. So his legacy is a long one. But this event from incredible people, ambassadors I've spoken to,

say that this has ruined his legacy. And he will always be remembered for this event more than anything else. So it's a very difficult thing. Will the Israeli public or will the Israeli judicial system punish him for this having happened on his watch? Well, that I don't know. I haven't asked those questions, nor have I had those discussions. I have no idea at this point. Okay. So the Israeli army is, or IDF as they call themselves, Israeli Defense Force, basically the army, is made up primarily of

reservists. How can they fight a guerrilla war in the streets of Gaza successfully? State it differently. What should they expect when they enter the streets of Gaza? Well, I think you need to set the conditions, or we need to talk about the conditions first. So first off, they are mustering, that is a term of bringing them back on active duty, 300,000 troops, a lot of troops.

Judge, that's a lot of people in any normal circumstance, but in this case, it's a huge number. So they've got to get those folks, and I've said this before in your show, they've got to get their mind right. They've got to get their mind back on military operations, not on having pizzas down at the pizzeria downtown. So they've got to focus on that, and then they've got to give them some level of training. And to your point, this is going to be the most difficult operations you can imagine. The U.S. Marines went into Fallujah twice trying to clean and clear out an urban area. It was brutal. I consider this going to be an order of magnitude worse because the population is greater and they're more prepared than the

terrorists in Fallujah. So I'm just saying it's going to be horrific. And plus they have the tunnel system they have to deal with too, which means like our experience during World War II, the Japanese could move things around on some of the islands and tunnels. So we couldn't stop. So I'm just saying, I'm mixing my metaphors here, but I'm just saying it's going to be a very difficult thing to do. Secondly, the conditions for combat.

One of the things that Blinken has completely failed at is to remove the noncombatants, the innocents from Gaza. He met with both al-Sisi and the King of Jordan. And Jordan said, no, we're not taking refugees. And al-Sisi was adamant in his face. As a matter of fact, your audience can go check this out. The State Department put the readout of these meetings on their own website.

So I recommend they go check out Al-Sisi, President Al-Sisi chewing out Tony Blinken saying we're not taking the refugees, thanks. So that effort, and by the way, the Saudis actually made Blinken cool his heels overnight when he flew in there to talk to him. So the very thing that the U.S.

was trying to help the Israeli military deal with, which is surveillance, has failed miserably. So that's another factor that's going to make operations in that environment very, very difficult, is trying to sort out the good guys from the bad guys. But back to Gaza, do you subscribe to the theory offered here by some of your colleagues, that this is a trap intended to ensnare the Israeli military into a pincer movement out of which they cannot come alive. Draw them into Gaza, either to expose the West Bank or to put them in a tight area where they can be killed like shooting fish in a barrel. Yeah. So the answer is, I think the aspiration of Hamas is to do that very thing. There's no doubt that that's the objective. With that said, even that's more difficult than I think they

fully understand. Urban warfare is a very difficult thing for both sides. Neither side has an advantage. That's why people don't like fighting in an urban environment. Neither side has advantage. So yeah, Hamas could do that, but they're going to suffer greatly because I'm telling you right now, the Israelis have thermobaric weapons that'll take out tunnels. The massive firepower that they can bring to bear is an order of magnitude more than Hamas. So yeah, they could, but they're going to die in the process. And if they really want to die with no legacy, their legacy of death, then yeah, that's going to happen. Both sides can do that. I don't see the Israelis getting bogged down. Again, we didn't get bogged down in Fallujah. We fought the battle. It was brutal.

We never once decided that we're just going to fight this and not pull out if it got too difficult. I think the Israelis have studied the Battle of Fallujah. I think they understand our lessons pretty well. I don't know this for a fact. I'm not involved. But I'm saying that I think the Israelis have studied the Battle of Fallujah. I think they understand our lessons pretty well. I don't know this for a fact. I'm not involved. But I'm saying that I think the Israelis have studied very greatly what we did and what worked and did not work. So I think they're more prepared than the Israelis are more prepared than I think they're being given credit for. How do you explain the Israeli government attacking a hospital? Now, I know they've denied. I don't believe they did.

And now I've looked at all that. Hang on. Hang on. Yeah. One of your colleagues has told me that the weapon was or the bomb was. I don't know what this is, Tony. I'm asking you a U.S. MK 83 guided bomb. What is that? I don't know. I'm not familiar with the nomenclature, nor do I believe a bomb was used based on the data I've looked at. Do you think that Hamas intentionally or accidentally destroyed its own principal hospital? No, I think the Islamic Jihad, another organization within that area, not part of Hamas, did it.

I think they fired off rockets that didn't go. I think the rockets were all going in the same direction except one varied off. These are not precision guided weapons, Judge. Let me be very clear on this because I'm all for placing credit or blame where it's due. I don't believe for a minute a Western technology weapon was used here, and here's why. If you just look at the events of that moment, there's no disputing when the weapon hit the hospital, none, zero. At the very time you saw the weapon hit, just before that, incidental to that event, there were rockets being shot off towards the Israelis,

multiple rockets coming from this Islamic Jihad group. You know, all things being considered, I've been taught, consider the thing which is probably the most potential. And so if you look at the path of the rockets from where they were going, and again, there's video of this, the rockets going off, except for one deviating, I think it's one of their rockets. And as tragic as it is, I think it was their doing. That is the terrorist in Gaza. Is there evidence that it was intentional or accidental, as you seem to be describing? I think it was completely accidental. I don't believe for a minute even Hamas or this Islamic Jihad was trying to do it. I think it was an accident. Look, this is war.

Tragic accidents actually do happen incidental to combat operations. Right, right, right. How has the Israeli-Hamas conflict become an opening for Russian President Putin? Great question. So during the time of Blinken's disastrous shuttle diplomacy, let's just call it that because that's what used to be called in the old days back when you and I were way younger, since he was meeting with al-Sisi, with the King of Jordan, with trying to meet with the prince, with the Saudis, Putin was on the phone talking to all these world leaders. Apparently, Putin is trying to set conditions for a reproach month that he is leading. So as much as anything, because of Biden,

and you saw the pictures of Biden over there doing all the silly stuff, you know, all the kind of grab handing and all the other stuff and making comments. By the way, he looks like a character from The Walking Dead. I'm going to stop you for a minute. Yeah. And ask Chris to run consecutively. Chris, those three sounds on tape. This is President Biden a few hours ago. Tony, he looks like he hasn't slept in a week. Right. Terrorist group Hamas has slaughtered,

as been pointed out, over 1,300 people. And it's not hyperbole, it's just slaughtered. Slaughtered. And including 31 Americans as part of that. And they've taken scores of people hostage, including children. They're committed evils and atrocities that make ISIS look somewhat more rational. You know, Americans are worried because we know this is not an easy field to navigate, what you have to do. I was deeply saddened and outraged by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday. And based on what I've seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you.

But there's a lot of people out there who are not sure. So we've got to overcome a lot of things. And, well, at any rate, that's who we are. Not just me, but I mean, that's who the United States is. It's just not the example of our power. It's the power of our example that's almost as important. The world's looking. Israel has a value set like the United States does

and other democracies. They're looking to see what we're going to do. So, Mr. Prime Minister, I'm very happy to be back in Israel with you. Thank you for having me. And I'm looking forward to having a thorough discussion about where everybody goes from here. But thank you. And I want to say to the people of Israel, their courage, their commitment, their bravery is stunning. It's really stunning. I'm proud to be here. All right. I'm sorry to subject everybody to that. It's almost unwatchable. I understand his motivation, but he really looks and sounds

incoherent. I don't understand his motivation. He's not. So compare that to what you're now about to tell us about President Putin and what he's doing behind the scenes. So first, I don't know what he means by all of us. I don't consider myself in league with Biden for any number of reasons, just saying. Secondly, this whole thing of kind of the walking through, we're not a democracy, we're a republic. And I just, I'm sorry, I just fed up what the Democrats always say that we are not a republic. I agree with you. I agree with you, Tony. Anyway, so back on, but the very essence of Joe Biden and what he projected there on stage is weakness, serial weakness. And again, let me say this for the audience because I always get in trouble otherwise i am not pro putin but putin is being seen right now as the strong man he's he's coming through he's now on

the offensive in ukraine the uk they are now returning the offensive there's power for you and president putin they're they're now in in beijing talking about brex they're trying to figure out an economic path for the world to go forward. And just as he's doing all that, and there's Orban, he's meeting with Orban there. I mean, this is unheard of. The very time that the United States should be leading this, it's like you've got Biden and Blinken, two of the worst possible leaders trying to rally support. It's not going to work. And so I'm sorry, I'm going a little longer, but- Okay, back to Putin and the Middle East. Putin was on the phone. Putin was on the phone to al-Sisi, to the King of Jordan,

to the Saudis, to Netanyahu. He spoke to Netanyahu about this, Judge. And then not only that, they, the Russians, introduced at the United Nations, at the National Security Council, a resolution on this. They're actually proposing that they take the lead, they, the Russians, take the lead on trying to bring an end to the disagreements between the Palestinians and the Israelis. So while there was no specifics given, the fact that he was able to first off get the audience and talk to all these leaders at a critical time, actually get on the Security Council in the UN and put this on the floor, and then be working with his other allies, not ours, with China and

other nations to try to put together kind of this concept of how they would see the Middle East going, that very much indicates to me that they are going for the full Monty. They're going to try to figure out a way to gain economic dominance of the world regarding how they want to do the trades, the BRICS program, and then work to be the diplomatic force behind resolving the Middle East, because he's doing it. He's just going to do it because of Joe Biden being weak. I want to segue into Ukraine, but before we do that, I'd like you to watch Secretary Austin in Tel Aviv two days ago arguing what I think you and I would say is the impossible, that the United States can project strength onto violent fronts at the same time. Watch this. time watch this and we remain fully able to project power and uphold our commitments and direct resources to multiple theaters so we will stand with israel even as we stand with ukraine united states can walk and chew gum at the same time. And U.S. security assistance to Israel

will flow in at the speed of war. The United States has Israel's back and that is not negotiable. I guess he forgot about Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. I also think he has his

values wrong. Is our goal to project power and violence and death or to project peace and reconciliation? So the latter is what I would be focused on because war is hell, literally. And Austin is projecting the neocon wet dream. Let's just go shoot everything that moves that we don't like. That's what he's saying. By the way, he has to read it too, because he's not very confident. As you notice, he has to look down and read the script. So this is a very dangerous position to be in, Judge. And I'm saying this not as someone who's afraid of war. I think that there are time

for military operations and being very aggressive and very punitive. This is not one of them. Omar Bradley, General Omar Bradley, World War II, one of the few five-star generals said, amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics. And- Explain. Well, everything that he's talking has to do with logistical fortitude. That is to say that if you're going to actually engage in these things, you have to have a plan to replenish, deploy, and keep a series of ammunition, a steady flow of ammunition, fuel, and manpower going forward into these things. We don't have that. It took a running start to get into World War II. If you recall, well, you weren't there and I wasn't either, but 38, 39, 40, the United States started recognizing there's going to be a world war and we built up to it.

There's been no such buildup. As a matter of fact, we are depleted by the fact that we've been giving great number of ammunition resources to Ukraine. As a matter of fact that's one of the reasons i would argue the iranian israeli army is delayed because of the 155 ammunition that they would need for the urban assaults been given to the ukrainians they can't get it from us because we don't have it to give we don't have it so i'm just saying that what he's saying is is first off not plausible i'm not the only guy that knows our weaknesses. Our adversaries have intelligence organizations that can analyze things better than me regarding our actual depot level resource, what's left. They've been watching. So they know that what he's saying is not sustainable.

And secondly, he's not projecting strength. Biden does not project strength. He doesn't project strength. That is Austin. And so adversaries at this point are not taking credible any of the comments that he't project strength. That is Austin. And so adversaries at this point are not taking credible any of the comments that he's making or anyone else is making. So it's not a good situation for us to be in. And again, miscalculation is the biggest potential factor regarding going to a hot war globally.

Okay. Vladimir Zelensky, remember him? Yeah. I mean, what's going on over there? How much longer is that going to last? If our focus, our emotional, financial, political, and military focus is on Israel, I would think that Ukraine is finished. I think they are. No, I think Zelensky understands that he's kind of about to be shipped off to the island of broken toys. I mean, I just don't think he's going to be sustainable. I mean, again, Judge, as I said, this has always been a numbers game.

We've been talking about this for a year now. It's always been a numbers game. The Russians have always had the numbers. Ukraine never had the numbers. We're never going to have the numbers. And everything they've done has only been a short-term solution to a long-term challenge that they don't have the ability to deal with. And as much as anything, again, I'm not pro-Russian. I'm not pro-Putin. I'm simply stating the facts as they exist, that right now within the context of the current combat situation,

there's been no progress, zero, over the vaunted Ukrainian offensive. They've gained no permanent ground, period. Now the wind is out of their sails. They have nothing left. And the Russians are now engaged in small tactical offensive operations. They're not moving to the offensive. This is not a meeting engagement where they're moving across the country. I'm saying that in certain positions that the Russians are now, have regained the initiative. And overall, they've regained

initiative because they know, Putin knows, the U.S. is going to not be able to supply Ukraine's needs to sustain the, to continue the offensive or do anything more than go on the defensive at this point. Last question, because I know you sometimes, we both do, and the audience likes it, to get into theoretical stuff. Yeah. So how can the Biden administration and the United States of America justify supporting Nazis in Ukraine at the same time it is supporting the Jewish people in Israel, the most pronounced victims of Nazism in history. You can't circle that square. So I've said in other interviews, and I think if your audience follows me on those, like, yeah, this is not reconcilable. The fact that you had Nazis honored in Canada as part of the Ukrainian history of war, you can't circle that. The other thing people

tend to forget, Judges, people need to go back and look at Lawrence of Arabia, the whole Sykes-Picot thing and how things started and understand how they came forward. Because it's important to understand that over the last hundred years, since Sykes-Picot, many of the Jews who came to Israel came from the Soviet Union and Russia. So there's a deep tie there to the home country in many ways. So when you start looking at whose side are the Iranians, as Israelis, going to be on, it's not going to be on Ukraine. And the fact that I think they've been told and had to give up resources, US resources, but resources that could have been used for their offensive, that is the Israeli offensive against Hamas, is not a small issue. And that's another thing, by the way,

Putin has the advantage of. It's like, you know, Netanyahu is going to take his call because there are a lot of Israelis who are fromussian descent so uh there's no way to circle that square between the ukrainian elements that have nazis in them i'll just be polite i need to be careful here because i know i'll get in trouble and the fact that the russians uh are going to be trying to gain advantage in the middle east regarding how they negotiate and work with the israelis it's it's you can't circle that square judge. It's, it's, it's not, it's not possible. So.

Tony Schaefer, always a pleasure, my dear friend, no matter what we're talking about. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you, Jed. Good to be here. Sure. Of course, more as we get it, Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski at 3.30 this afternoon, Eastern Time. Judge Napolitano.

Oh, we're up to 214,000 subscribers. My deep and profound thanks. We're on the march to a quarter of a million by Christmas. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. I'm out.